市场分析：（1）宏观面: 中美关税政策引发市场恐慌，市场担忧美农产品出口因此遭到影 响。 （2）国际大豆：巴西大豆收割接近尾声，关注最终产量。加征关税背景下，美豆出口悲观 预期仍存。 （3）国内豆粕供需面：到港大豆逐渐丰裕，市场预期 5-7 月大豆到港超千万吨。终端养殖 需求一般，叠加下游饲料企业高库存高头寸，主要以滚动补库为主。油厂豆粕库存维持中 性。 参考观点：多重因素共振，豆粕短线或区间震荡。 1、现货市场：张家港东海粮油一级豆油 8290 元/吨，较上一交易日涨 60 元/吨。 2、宏观：特朗普时期的"对等关税"政策通过重塑全球贸易流、产业链定价权及市场风险 偏好，对期货市场形成了系统性冲击。 3、市场分析：当前时间窗口下，正处美豆播种与南美豆收割、出口季，目前巴西豆收割基 本完成。总体来看，南美新作丰产格局或将大概率成为事实。后市豆油中期新增供给与下 游需求或维持中性，豆油中期库存或维持整理。 4、参考观点：豆油 2509 合约，短线或面临整理。 现货信息：43 豆粕各地区现货报价：张家港 3120 元/吨（-20）、天津 3330 元/吨（-10）、 日照 3280 元/吨（-20）、东莞 298 ...

1、现货市场：张家港东海粮油一级豆油 8230 元/吨，较上一交易日跌 40 元/吨。 2、宏观：特朗普时期的"对等关税"政策通过重塑全球贸易流、产业链定价权及市场风险 偏好，对期货市场形成了系统性冲击。 3、市场分析：当前时间窗口下，正处美豆播种与南美豆收割、出口季，目前巴西豆收割基 本完成。总体来看，南美新作丰产格局或将大概率成为事实。后市豆油中期新增供给与下 游需求或维持中性，豆油中期库存或维持整理。 4、参考观点：豆油 2509 合约，短线或面临整理。 现货信息：43 豆粕各地区现货报价：张家港 3140 元/吨（40）、天津 3340 元/吨（70）、 日照 3300 元/吨（100）、东莞 3050 元/吨（40）。 市场分析：（1）宏观面: 中美关税政策引发市场恐慌，市场担忧美农产品出口因此遭到影 响。 （2）国际大豆：巴西大豆收割接近尾声，关注最终产量。加征关税背景下，美豆出口悲观 预期仍存。 （3）国内豆粕供需面：到港大豆逐渐丰裕，市场预期 5-7 月大豆到港超千万吨。终端养殖 需求一般，叠加下游饲料企业高库存高头寸，主要以滚动补库为主。油厂豆粕库存维持中 性。因清明假期内，中美再度加征高额 ...

证监函【2017】203 号 研究所 能源化工小组 研究员：李雨馨 从业资格号：F3023505 投资咨询号：Z0013987 初审： 沈欣萌：从业资格号：F3029146 投资咨询号：Z0014147 复审： 李雨馨：从业资格号：F3023505 投资咨询号：Z0013987 综述: 关税冲击下，橡胶全面转空 供给层面： 4 月国内产区逐渐进入开割阶段，南部产区逐步进入季节性旺产季， 原料产出有季节性增加预期，新一年开割预期走强，供应端利空市场。 进口层面：3 月海外船货生产多集中在旺产期，供应相对充足，海外采购节奏放 缓下，上游工厂多集中往中国发运，但有部分大厂船期推迟，环比 2 月增量有限。 需求层面： 预计 4 月橡胶需求受到美国"对等关税"的影响，轮胎样本企业产能 利用率大幅走低。目前轮胎企业整体库存较为充足，然市场需求疲弱，企业去库 缓慢， 加之 4 月份，部分企业新订单接单不及预期，部分企业排产存下调预期， 将对整体样本企业产能利用率形成一定拖拽。 库存表现：预计 4 月份，延续累库趋势。 宏观方面：关注"对等关税"中美互相加码的力度，对全球贸易有重大打击。 美国"对等关税"对中国轮胎及汽车出口 ...

4、参考观点：豆油 2509 合约，短线或面临整理。 1、现货市场：张家港东海粮油一级豆油 8270 元/吨，较上一交易日持平。 2、宏观：特朗普时期的"对等关税"政策通过重塑全球贸易流、产业链定价权及市场风险 偏好，对期货市场形成了系统性冲击。 3、市场分析：当前时间窗口下，正处美豆播种与南美豆收割、出口季，目前巴西豆收割基 本完成。总体来看，南美新作丰产格局或将大概率成为事实。后市豆油中期新增供给与下 游需求或维持中性，豆油中期库存或维持整理。 市场分析：从外盘来看，美国农业部播种意向报告及季度库存数据发布，2025 年美国玉米 种植面积预计为 9532.6 万英亩，创下 12 年来的最高水平，种植面积超预期；季度库存报告 显示，2025 年 3 月 1 日所有部位的美国玉米库存总计 81.5 亿蒲，这一数据接近市场预期的 81.51 亿蒲；从国内来看，基层农户售粮接近 9 成，当前余粮所剩无几，且进口玉米及替代 性谷物进口同比大幅减少，对玉米市场冲击减弱，市场阶段性供应压力减轻；下游生猪产 能持续恢复，饲料消费有望提升，整体供需格局趋于改善，但近期政策粮轮换及小麦对玉 米替代等潜在压制因素仍在，近期关税 ...

安粮期货商品研究报告 玉米期货月报 安粮期货研究所 2025 年 4 月 投资咨询业务资格 皖证监函【2017】203 号 研究所 农产品小组 研究员: 李雨馨 从业资格号：F3023505 投资咨询号：Z0013987 助理研究员： 潘兆敏：从业资格证号：F3064781 初审： 沈欣萌：从业资格号：F3029146 投资咨询号：Z0014147 复审： 李雨馨：从业资格号：F3023505 投资咨询号：Z0013987 安粮期货研究报告 总部地址：安徽省合肥市包河区花园大道 986 号安粮中心 23-24 层 客服热线： 400—626—9988 网站地址：www.alqh.com 1 / 8 安粮期货研究报告 综述： 内生动力较强 玉米仍以自身逻辑主导价格 核心观点： 短期来看，玉米售粮进度同比较快，当前市场余粮仅剩一成左右，且进口玉 米及替代性谷物进口同比大幅减少，对玉米市场冲击减弱，市场阶段性供应压力 减轻，南北港高库存压力或有缓解，而下游深加工及饲料企业库存处高位，短期 需求增量不足，但近期政策粮轮换及小麦对玉米替代等潜在压制因素仍在，市场 多空因素掺杂，预计期价短期维持区间震荡；中长期来看，随着 ...

综述:铜价绝对价格水平已高估 投资咨询业务资格 皖证监函【2017】203 号 研究所 有色小组 钟远 从业资格号：F0303681 投资咨询号：Z0011824 电 话：0551-62870127 从大趋势来看，市场处在新周期阶段，铜价 2024 年的战役脉冲在打破历 史新高至 9-10 万区域后，笔者认为铜价大泡沫空间基本到位，战略上铜价处在 空头格局中，从战役上说，铜价在跌至 7 万附近后，第一空头结束，且历经反弹 1、 供给层面：3 月 TC 录得均值-18.54，环比-11.42，原料端干扰严峻局面继续； 2025 年 1-2 月累计产量 230 万吨，单月产量 124.2 万吨，增速分别为 4 和 4.3，增速缓步收缩，在利润亏损情况下，此格局或延续； 2、 需求层面：融资花钱方面，2 月社融、M1 和 M2 分别为 8.2、0.1 和 7，环比 变动 0.2、-0.3 和 0，信用边际维持弱稳局面未变；终端来看，12 月汽车销 售增速为 13.1，环变 13.7，1-2 月房市销售为-5.1，环变 7.8，关注汽车调整 是否有结束可能，地产延续萎靡，但边际延续好转； 3、 库存表现：至 3 月底 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The short - term trend of soybean oil 2505 contract may face consolidation [1] - The short - term trend of soybean meal may fluctuate strongly [2] - The short - term futures price of corn will fluctuate within a range, and the idea of range operation should be maintained [3] - After the rapid decline of copper price to release risks, it needs a rest, and tactical defense should be carried out opportunistically [4] - The 2505 contract of lithium carbonate may fluctuate weakly, and short positions can be taken on rallies [5][6] - The market sentiment of steel is pessimistic, and it will fluctuate at a low level [7] - Due to the loose supply, coking coal and coke will have a weak rebound at a low level with limited space [8] - The short - term trend of iron ore 2505 is mainly fluctuating strongly, and traders are reminded to be cautious about investment risks [9] - After the holiday, the WTI main contract will have a sharp decline. Attention should be paid to the support level of INE crude oil at around 470 yuan/barrel [10] - Attention should be paid to the downstream start - up situation of Shanghai rubber, and the rubber will mainly fluctuate weakly [12] - In the short term, there is a lack of fundamental positive driving factors, and the futures price may fluctuate at a low level [13][14] - Yesterday, the 05 contract on the futures market fluctuated due to short - term macro - sentiment, but the overall supply - demand pattern remains unchanged. It is expected that the futures market will still fluctuate widely in the short term [15] Summary by Related Catalogs Spot Information - The price of first - grade soybean oil in Zhangjiagang Donghai Grain and Oil is 8270 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1] - The spot prices of 43 soybean meal in different regions are: Zhangjiagang 3130 yuan/ton (120), Tianjin 3290 yuan/ton (160), Rizhao 3220 yuan/ton (150), Dongguan 3020 yuan/ton (50) [2] - The mainstream purchase price of new corn in key deep - processing enterprises in the three northeastern provinces and Inner Mongolia is 2082 yuan/ton; the mainstream purchase price of new corn in key enterprises in North China and Huanghuai is 2281 yuan/ton; the purchase price in Jinzhou Port (15% water/volume weight 680 - 720) is 2130 - 2155 yuan/ton; the purchase price in Bayuquan (volume weight 680 - 730/15% water) is 2130 - 2155 yuan/ton [3] - The price of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper is 73820 - 75400, down 4540, with a premium of 100 - 200. The import copper ore index is - 26.4, down 2.26 [4] - The market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%) is 73400 (- 500) yuan/ton, the market price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2%) is 73700 (- 400) yuan/ton, and the price difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 1700 (- 100) yuan/ton [5] - The price of Shanghai rebar is 3170, the start - up rate in Tangshan is 83.13%, the social inventory is 590.95 million tons, and the inventory in steel mills is 207.12 million tons [7] - The price of main coking coal (clean coal, Mongolia 5) is 1200 yuan/ton; the price of metallurgical coke (quasi - first - grade) in Rizhao Port is 1330 yuan/ton; the port inventory of imported coking coal is 347.56 million tons; the port inventory of coke is 217.13 million tons [8] - The Platts index of iron ore is 102.95, the price of Qingdao PB (61.5) powder is 768, and the price of Australian iron ore powder with 62% Fe is 787 [9] - The spot prices of rubber are: domestic whole latex 16600 yuan/ton, Thai smoked three - piece 21600 yuan/ton, Vietnamese 3L standard rubber 17750 yuan/ton, and No. 20 rubber 16350 yuan/ton. The raw material prices in Ho Ai are: smoked sheet 72.59 Thai baht/kg, latex 67.5 Thai baht/kg, cup lump 60.95 Thai baht/kg, and raw rubber 68.99 Thai baht/kg [11] - The mainstream price of East China Type 5 PVC is 4800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton compared with the previous period; the mainstream price of ethylene - based PVC is 5100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton compared with the previous period; the price difference between ethylene - based and calcium - carbide - based PVC is 200 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton compared with the previous period [13] - The mainstream price of national heavy soda ash is 1467.19 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.37 yuan/ton compared with the previous period; among them, the mainstream price of heavy soda ash in East China is 1525 yuan/ton, in North China is 1575 yuan/ton, and in Central China is 1450 yuan/ton, all remaining unchanged compared with the previous period [15] Market Analysis - **Soybean Oil**: Currently, it is the sowing season of American soybeans and the harvesting and export season of South American soybeans. The harvesting of Brazilian soybeans is basically completed. The new crop in South America is likely to have a bumper harvest. In the medium term, the new supply and downstream demand of soybean oil may remain neutral, and the medium - term inventory may be sorted out [1] - **Soybean Meal**: The Sino - US tariff policy has caused market panic. The harvesting of South American soybeans is nearly over, and the Sino - US trade tariff war affects the export of American soybeans. Due to the delay of soybean arrival and shutdown for maintenance, the supply of soybean meal may be tight, but it is expected to turn loose when South American soybeans are concentrated on the market later. The terminal breeding demand is average, and downstream feed enterprises mainly replenish inventory on a rolling basis. The inventory of oil mills remains neutral. Due to the additional high - tariff imposition between China and the US during the Tomb - sweeping Festival, the short - term sentiment of soybean meal is strong [2] - **Corn**: In the international market, the expected planting area of American corn in 2025 is 95.326 million acres, reaching a 12 - year high, and the quarterly inventory is close to market expectations. In the domestic market, farmers have sold nearly 90% of their grain, and the import of corn and substitute grains has decreased significantly year - on - year, reducing the supply pressure. The downstream pig production capacity is recovering, and the feed consumption is expected to increase. However, there are still potential suppressing factors such as policy grain rotation and wheat substitution. Although the recent tariff event may affect the corn price, the price is still mainly dominated by domestic supply and demand [3] - **Copper**: The global "irrational" tariff shock has caused great fluctuations in overseas capital markets, leading to turmoil in overseas - priced non - ferrous metals and the stock market. The continuous status - quo maintenance of the Federal Reserve reflects the uncertainty. In 2025, the topic of ending the interest - rate cut path may be discussed. Domestically, policies are continuously strengthening, which is conducive to the recovery of market sentiment. From the industrial perspective, the raw material shock is still extremely severe, the mining problem has not been completely solved, the inventory accumulation factor has ended, and the copper price is in a stage of resonance, with intensified games between reality and expectations [4] - **Lithium Carbonate**: In terms of cost, the price of lithium ore remains unchanged compared with last week, and the inventory has increased. In terms of supply, the weekly start - up rate continues to increase, but the growth rate slows down, and the salt - lake end has started to resume production. If a large amount of low - cost lithium salt flows into the market, it may impact the price. In terms of demand, the terminal consumption in March has improved month - on - month, the power battery has maintained stable growth, and the production of cathode materials is stable, but the demand is still not enough to drive the price up. The weekly inventory continues to accumulate [5] - **Steel**: The fundamentals of steel have gradually improved, with the far - month contracts stronger than the near - month contracts, and the contango structure has weakened. The current valuation of steel is moderately low. In terms of cost and inventory, policies support the stabilization of the real estate industry. The apparent demand for steel has decreased year - on - year, the raw material price has fluctuated strongly this week, and the cost center of steel has increased dynamically. The social inventory and steel - mill inventory of steel are both decreasing, and the overall inventory level is low. In the short term, the macro - policy expectation dominates the futures market, and the fundamentals are gradually improving, showing a pattern of strong supply and demand [7] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The supply is relatively loose, with the domestic production capacity steadily recovering, the capacity utilization rate of coking plants running smoothly, and the import of Mongolian coal remaining at a high level despite some disturbances. The demand is weak, as steel mills are reducing production, and there is still an expectation of a decline in hot - metal production. The independent coking enterprises maintain a low - inventory strategy for raw materials, and the overall inventory shows a slight accumulation trend. The average profit per ton of coke is running smoothly and is gradually approaching the break - even line [8] - **Iron Ore**: The market has both bullish and bearish factors. On the supply side, the shipment volume of the three major Australian mines in the first quarter increased by 8% year - on - year, the new mining area of Vale in Brazil was put into production ahead of schedule, and the global port inventory reached 145 million tons, a new high since 2023. On the demand side, the resumption of production of Chinese steel mills has slowed down. Although the traditional peak season came in March, the fund - arrival rate of downstream real - estate and infrastructure projects is low, the daily average hot - metal production remains at a low level of 2.25 million tons, steel mills are cautious about replenishing inventory, and the port desilting volume has declined for three consecutive weeks. Overseas demand is differentiated. The production increase of Indian steel mills supports part of the demand, but the substitution effect of Southeast Asian electric - arc furnaces is enhanced, reducing the dependence on iron ore. The market is worried about the contraction of long - process steel - making demand. However, the Fed's interest - rate cut signal in March has weakened the US dollar index, which supports the commodity price. Technically, the main contract of iron ore has strong support at the 110 - dollar mark, and if there is a marginal improvement in demand, the price may have a phased rebound [9] - **Crude Oil**: After the US announced "reciprocal tariffs" and China counter - imposed, the global capital market fell sharply, and crude oil was hit hard. The overseas market fell by more than 10% during the holiday. There is a risk of a limit - down opening of domestic crude oil and fuel oil after the holiday. OPEC+ decided to increase production in May, and the rare contraction of the US PMI data in February has raised concerns about demand. The crude oil price has fallen below the previous low support and entered a technical bear market. The US trade war and the delay of the Russia - Ukraine peace talks have increased uncertainty, and the demand in the second quarter may be severely dragged down by the trade war [10] - **Rubber**: The US "reciprocal tariffs" have a great impact on China's tire and automobile exports, causing the rubber price to fall across the board. The fundamental factors are secondary to the macro - sentiment. Fundamentally, the domestic whole - latex production is gradually resuming, and the Southeast Asian production areas are gradually stopping production. The supply in Thailand's southern region is still abundant. Currently, the global supply and demand of rubber are both loose, and the market is hyping up macro - narratives such as the trade war. The US automobile tariff may seriously suppress the global rubber demand [12] - **PVC**: In terms of supply, the start - up rate of PVC production enterprises last week was 80.02%, an increase of 0.21% month - on - month and 2.17% year - on - year. Among them, the start - up rate of calcium - carbide - based PVC was 82.40%, an increase of 0.51% month - on - month and 2.63% year - on - year, and the start - up rate of ethylene - based PVC was 73.77%, a decrease of 0.58% month - on - month and an increase of 1.55% year - on - year. In terms of demand, the domestic downstream product enterprises have not improved significantly, and the transactions are mainly for rigid demand. In terms of inventory, as of April 3, the social inventory of PVC has decreased by 3.41% month - on - month to 77.78 million tons, a decrease of 11.65% year - on - year. The inventory in East China and South China has also decreased. The futures price on April 7 was affected by extreme macro - fear factors, opening sharply lower and then rebounding, but still closing at a low level. The current supply - demand contradiction is still prominent, the inventory is relatively high, and the downstream demand is weak [13] - **Soda Ash**: In terms of supply, the overall start - up rate of soda ash last week was 85.09%, an increase of 2.72% month - on - month, and the output was 713,000 tons, an increase of 22,800 tons month - on - month, with a growth rate of 3.30%. The equipment maintenance has gradually recovered, and the output has increased. In terms of inventory, the manufacturer's inventory last week was 1.7014 million tons, an increase of 71,400 tons month - on - month, with a growth rate of 4.38%, and the inventory has significantly accumulated. The social inventory shows a downward trend. The demand is average, and the middle and downstream enterprises replenish inventory for rigid demand for low - price goods and still resist high - price goods. The tariff policy has limited impact on the soda - ash market, and the futures market is expected to fluctuate widely [15]

Group 1: Soybean Oil - Spot market: Before the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, the price of first - grade soybean oil at Zhangjiagang Donghai Grain and Oil was 8,520 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [2] - Market analysis: The 2024/25 Brazilian soybean crop harvest rate is faster than last year, and South America's new season may be in a bumper - harvest pattern. Currently, it's the U.S. soybean export and South American growth and harvest season. Domestically, short - term soybean oil supply and downstream demand may remain neutral, and short - term inventory may be stable [2] - Reference view: The soybean oil 2505 contract may run weakly in the short term [2] Group 2: Soybean Meal - Spot information: 43 soybean meal prices in different regions: Zhangjiagang 3,010 yuan/ton (- 10), Tianjin 3,130 yuan/ton (- 30), Rizhao 3,070 yuan/ton (- 10), Dongguan 2,970 yuan/ton (0) [3] - Market analysis: Sino - U.S. tariff policies have caused market panic. CBOT soybeans have declined due to demand concerns. In April, the number of imported soybeans is expected to increase. Terminal breeding demand is average, and downstream feed enterprises mainly replenish stocks on a rolling basis. Oil mill soybean meal inventory remains neutral [3] - Reference view: Soybean meal may fluctuate within a range in the short term [3] Group 3: Corn - Spot information: The average purchase price of new corn in key deep - processing enterprises in the three northeastern provinces and Inner Mongolia is 2,082 yuan/ton; in North China and the Huang - Huai region, it's 2,281 yuan/ton. The purchase price at Jinzhou Port and Bayuquan Port is 2,130 - 2,155 yuan/ton [4] - Market analysis: The U.S. corn planting area in 2025 is expected to reach 95.326 million acres, a 12 - year high. Domestically, farmers' grain sales are nearly 90% complete, and imported corn and substitute grains have decreased significantly. Downstream pig production capacity is recovering, but there are still potential suppressing factors [4] - Reference view: The short - term corn futures price will fluctuate within a range, and an interval operation strategy is recommended [4] Group 4: Electrolytic Copper - Spot information: The price of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper is 79,010 - 79,290 yuan, down 905 yuan. The import copper ore index is - 26.4, down 2.26 [5] - Market analysis: Global "irrational" tariffs have caused turmoil in overseas capital markets. Domestically, policies are continuously strengthening, giving the market strong expectations. The raw material impact is still extreme, and the copper price is in a stage of resonance [5] - Reference view: Affected by the external market, Shanghai copper may open sharply lower. It is recommended to keep the strategy unchanged [5] Group 5: Lithium Carbonate - Spot information: The market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%) is 74,100 yuan/ton, and that of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2%) is 72,200 yuan/ton. The price difference between them is 1,900 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous trading day [6] - Market analysis: Lithium ore prices are unchanged, and inventory has increased. Supply is growing but at a slower pace, and the salt - lake end has started to resume production. Demand has improved but is still insufficient to drive prices up [6][7] - Reference view: The lithium carbonate 2505 contract may oscillate weakly. Short - selling on rallies is recommended [7] Group 6: Steel - Spot information: The price of Shanghai rebar is 3,260 yuan, the Tangshan start - up rate is 80.58%, the social inventory is 6.28 million tons, and the steel mill inventory is 2.2578 million tons [8] - Market analysis: The fundamentals of steel are gradually improving, with a weaker near - term and stronger long - term situation. The cost is rising, and the inventory is accumulating but at a low level. The short - term market is dominated by macro - policy expectations [8] - Reference view: The market sentiment is pessimistic, and steel prices will oscillate at a low level [8] Group 7: Coking Coal and Coke - Spot information: The price of main coking coal (washed coal, Meng 5) is 1,270 yuan/ton; the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port is 1,370 yuan/ton. The port inventory of imported coking coal is 3.8623 million tons, and the port inventory of coke is 2.0013 million tons [9] - Market analysis: Supply is relatively loose, demand is still sluggish, inventory is slightly accumulating, and the average profit per ton of coke is approaching the break - even point [9] - Reference view: Due to loose supply, coking coal and coke will rebound weakly at a low level with limited space [9] Group 8: Iron Ore - Spot information: The Platts iron ore index is 102.95, the price of Qingdao PB (61.5%) powder is 786 yuan, and the price of Australian iron ore powder (62% Fe) is 787 yuan [10] - Market analysis: Supply is increasing, demand is weak both domestically and overseas, and there are concerns about the contraction of long - process steelmaking demand. However, the weakening of the U.S. dollar index provides some support [10] - Reference view: The iron ore 2505 contract will mainly oscillate weakly in the short term. Traders are advised to be cautious [10] Group 9: Crude Oil - Market analysis: After the U.S. announced "reciprocal tariffs" and China counter - attacked, global capital markets tumbled, and crude oil prices dropped more than 10% during the holiday. OPEC+ decided to increase production in May, and the U.S. PMI data in February contracted [11] - Reference view: The WTI main contract will experience a sharp decline after the holiday. Attention should be paid to the supplementary decline in the domestic market [11] Group 10: Rubber - Spot information: The price of domestic full - latex rubber is 16,600 yuan/ton, Thai RSS3 is 21,600 yuan/ton, Vietnamese 3L standard rubber is 17,750 yuan/ton, and 20 - grade rubber is 16,350 yuan/ton [12] - Market analysis: U.S. "reciprocal tariffs" have affected China's tire and automobile exports, causing rubber prices to fall. Domestically, full - latex rubber production is gradually resuming, and the global rubber supply and demand are both loose [13] - Reference view: Rubber prices will mainly oscillate weakly. Attention should be paid to the supplementary decline after the holiday [13] Group 11: PVC - Spot information: The mainstream price of East China 5 - type PVC is 4,900 yuan/ton, and that of ethylene - based PVC is 5,150 yuan/ton, both remaining unchanged [14] - Market analysis: The PVC production enterprise start - up rate has increased. Downstream demand has not improved significantly, and inventory has decreased. The current supply - demand contradiction is still prominent [14] - Reference view: In the short term, lacking fundamental positive drivers, the futures price will oscillate at a low level [14] Group 12: Soda Ash - Spot information: The national mainstream price of heavy soda ash is 1,471.56 yuan/ton, down 1.57 yuan/ton month - on - month [15] - Market analysis: The soda ash start - up rate has increased, production has risen, and factory inventory has accumulated. Social inventory has decreased slightly. Demand is average, and there is resistance to high - price goods [15] - Reference view: Before the holiday, the 05 contract fluctuated narrowly. It is expected that the futures price will mainly oscillate widely in the short term [15]

1、现货市场：张家港东海粮油一级豆油 8520 元/吨，较上一交易日涨 90 元/吨。 2、市场分析：（1）国际大豆：相关机构称，目前巴西 2024/25 年度大豆作物收割率快于 上年同期。南美新季或处于丰产格局。当前时间窗口下，正处美豆出口与南美生长收割季， 建议后市积极关注美豆出口、南美豆生长收割情况、南北美天气等因素。（2）国内产业层 面：短期豆油供应与下游需求或维持中性，豆油短期库存或维稳。 3、参考观点：豆油 2505 合约，短线或震荡箱体区间运行。 现货信息：43 豆粕各地区现货报价：张家港 3020 元/吨（-20）、天津 3160 元/吨（0）、 日照 3080 元/吨（0）、东莞 2970 元/吨（-10）。 市场分析：（1）宏观面: 中美关税政策引发市场恐慌，市场担忧美农产品出口因此遭到影 响。 （2）国际大豆：USDA 发布的意向报告中性偏空，大豆种植面积预测减少。当前处于南美 收割窗口期，持续关注产区天气变化。中美贸易关税问题，压制美豆出口需求。 （3）国内豆粕供需面：因大豆到厂延迟以及停机检修，近期油厂会有大范围的停机，豆粕 供应可能偏紧，预期后期南美大豆集中上市或将转为宽松。终端养 ...

（3）国内豆粕供需面：因大豆到厂延迟以及停机检修，近期油厂会有大范围的停机，豆粕 供应可能偏紧，预期后期南美大豆集中上市或将转为宽松。终端养殖需求一般，叠加下游 饲料企业高库存高头寸，主要以滚动补库为主。油厂豆粕库存维持中性。 参考观点：豆粕短线或区间震荡。 1、现货市场：张家港东海粮油一级豆油 8430 元/吨，较上一交易日跌 90 元/吨。 2、市场分析：（1）国际大豆：相关机构称，目前巴西 2024/25 年度大豆作物收割率快于 上年同期。南美新季或处于丰产格局。当前时间窗口下，正处美豆出口与南美生长收割季， 建议后市积极关注美豆出口、南美豆生长收割情况、南北美天气等因素。（2）国内产业层 面：短期豆油供应与下游需求或维持中性，豆油短期库存或维稳。 3、参考观点：豆油 2505 合约，短线或震荡箱体区间运行。 现货信息：43 豆粕各地区现货报价：张家港 3040 元/吨（-10）、天津 3160 元/吨（30）、 日照 3080 元/吨（-20）、东莞 2980 元/吨（-20）。 市场分析：（1）宏观面: 中美关税政策引发市场恐慌，市场担忧美农产品出口因此遭到影 响。 （2）国际大豆：USDA 发布的 ...