（2）国际大豆：市场交易重心转移至北美播种季，巴西大豆即将进入出口高峰期。 （3）国内豆粕供需面：关注节后巴西大豆清关情况，当前现货偏紧，随着到港大豆集中， 油厂开机恢复，现货偏紧的情况逐步缓解。节后下游开启补库阶段，短期或将提振豆粕成 交。 参考观点：豆粕短线或震荡运行。 1、现货市场：日照嘉吉一级豆油 8080 元/吨，较上一交易日持平。 2、国际大豆：当前时间窗口下，正处美豆播种与南美豆收割、出口季，目前巴西豆收割基 本完成。总体来看，南美新作丰产格局或将大概率成为事实。 3、国内产业层面：综合供需端，豆油中期去库周期或逐渐进入尾声阶段，关注后市南美进 口大豆到港、海关检验放行后，豆油库存或低位反弹。 4、参考观点：豆油 2509 合约，短线或区间震荡整理。 现货信息：43 豆粕各地区现货报价：张家港 3120 元/吨（20）、天津 3160 元/吨（-140）、 日照 3110 元/吨（10）、东莞 3100 元/吨（-40）。 市场分析：（1）宏观面: 中美经贸会谈将在瑞士进行，关注会谈内容。 现货信息：东北三省及内蒙重点深加工企业新玉米主流收购均价 2194 元/吨；华北黄淮重 点企业新玉米主流收 ...

Group 1: Soybean Oil - Spot market: The price of Grade 1 soybean oil from Rizhao Cargill is 8080 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day [2] - International soybean situation: It is currently the U.S. soybean sowing season and the South American soybean harvesting and exporting season, with Brazilian soybean harvesting almost completed. South American new - crop harvest is likely to be abundant [2] - Domestic industry situation: The medium - term de - stocking cycle of soybean oil may be ending. After the arrival of South American imported soybeans and customs clearance, soybean oil inventory may rebound from a low level [2] - Reference view: The soybean oil 2509 contract may fluctuate within a range in the short term [2] Group 2: Soybean Meal - Spot information: The spot prices of 43% soybean meal in different regions are: Zhangjiagang 3100 yuan/ton (+10), Tianjin 3300 yuan/ton (unchanged), Rizhao 3100 yuan/ton (+10), Dongguan 3270 yuan/ton (+50) [3] - Market analysis: Macro - level, Sino - U.S. economic and trade talks will be held in Switzerland. The market focus has shifted to the North American sowing season, and Brazilian soybeans are about to enter the export peak. In the domestic market, pay attention to the clearance of Brazilian soybeans after the holiday. Currently, the spot is tight, but it will ease as more soybeans arrive and oil mills resume operation. Downstream replenishment after the holiday may boost short - term trading volume [3] - Reference view: Soybean meal may fluctuate in the short term [3] Group 3: Corn - Spot information: The mainstream purchase prices of new corn are 2184 yuan/ton in key deep - processing enterprises in the three northeastern provinces and Inner Mongolia, 2404 yuan/ton in key enterprises in North China and the Huang - Huai region. The purchase prices in Jinzhou Port and Bayuquan Port are 2260 - 2270 yuan/ton and 2250 - 2270 yuan/ton respectively [4] - Market analysis: The Sino - U.S. tariff dispute has limited impact on the corn market due to China's decreasing import dependence and import from Brazil. Domestically, the supply is tight during the new - old grain transition period, and the downstream demand is weak [4] - Reference view: The domestic corn market is in the new - old grain gap period, and the corn price is likely to rise. It is advisable to take a short - term long position [4] Group 4: Copper - Spot information: The price of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper is 78290 - 78580 yuan, down 145 yuan. The import copper ore index is - 42.61, down 0.09 [5] - Market analysis: The Fed maintains the interest rate, and there are uncertainties. Domestic policies support the market. The raw material supply problem persists, and the copper inventory in China is declining rapidly [6] - Reference view: The monthly K - line of copper price is balanced. In the short term, it is advisable to participate based on the moving average system [6] Group 5: Lithium Carbonate - Spot information: The market prices of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%) and industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2%) are 65700 yuan/ton (- 500) and 64000 yuan/ton (- 500) respectively, with a price difference of 1700 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [7] - Market analysis: The cost pressure is increasing, the supply is increasing, and the demand is improving but not strong enough [7] - Inventory situation: The weekly inventory is increasing. As of April 24, the weekly inventory is 131864 tons (+259). The monthly inventory in March increased by 47% year - on - year and 17% month - on - month [8] - Reference view: The lithium carbonate 2507 contract may fluctuate weakly. It is advisable to short at high prices [8] Group 6: Steel - Spot information: The price of Shanghai rebar is 3160 yuan, the Tangshan operating rate is 83.56%, the social inventory is 532.76 million tons, and the steel mill inventory is 200.4 million tons [9] - Market analysis: The fundamentals of steel are improving, with a neutral - low valuation. The cost is dynamic, and the inventory is decreasing. The short - term market is dominated by macro - policy expectations [9] - Reference view: After the macro - level negative factors are digested, it is advisable to take a long position at low prices for far - month contracts after May [9] Group 7: Coking Coal and Coke - Spot information: The price of coking coal (Meng 5) is 1205 yuan/ton, and the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port is 1340 yuan/ton. The port inventories of imported coking coal and coke are 337.38 million tons and 246.10 million tons respectively [10] - Market analysis: The supply is loose, the demand is weak, the inventory is slightly increasing, and the profit is approaching the break - even point [10] - Reference view: Coking coal and coke may rebound weakly at a low level, but the upward space is limited [10] Group 8: Iron Ore - Spot information: The Platts iron ore index is 99.95, the price of Qingdao PB (61.5%) powder is 760 yuan, and the price of Australian iron ore (62% Fe) is 762 yuan [11] - Market analysis: The supply and demand factors are mixed. The global shipping volume has decreased slightly, the port inventory has decreased, the domestic demand has increased, but the overseas demand is differentiated. The U.S. tariff policy has an impact on the market [11] - Reference view: The iron ore 2505 contract may fluctuate in the short term. Traders should be cautious [11] Group 9: Crude Oil - Market analysis: The Fed's interest - rate decision and geopolitical conflicts have an impact on the market. OPEC+ will increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in June. The demand may be affected by the trade war in the second quarter [12] - Reference view: The WTI main contract may fluctuate between 55 - 60 US dollars per barrel [12] Group 10: Rubber - Market analysis: The impact of the U.S. "equal - tariff" policy on rubber prices has been mostly priced in. The supply is increasing as domestic and Southeast Asian rubber trees start to be tapped. The global supply and demand are both loose, and the trade - war narrative may affect the demand [13] - Reference view: Pay attention to the downstream operating rate of Shanghai rubber. The main contract has support around 14,000 yuan/ton [13] Group 11: PVC - Spot information: The mainstream price of East China 5 - type PVC is 4660 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton. The mainstream price of ethylene - based PVC is 5000 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton [14] - Market analysis: The production enterprise operating rate has increased slightly. The demand from downstream enterprises is still weak, and the inventory has decreased [14] - Reference view: The futures price may fluctuate at a low level due to weak demand [14] Group 12: Soda Ash - Spot information: The national mainstream price of heavy soda ash is 1415 yuan/ton, unchanged. The mainstream prices in different regions are also unchanged [15] - Market analysis: The operating rate has decreased slightly, the production has decreased, the inventory has increased slightly, and the demand is average. The downstream is more willing to buy low - priced goods [15] - Reference view: The futures market may fluctuate widely in the short term [15]

Group 1: Soybean Oil - Spot market: The price of Grade 1 soybean oil at Rizhao Cargill is 8080 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [2] - International soybean situation: It is currently the US soybean sowing season and the South American soybean harvesting and exporting season, with Brazil's soybean harvest almost completed, and a bumper South American new - crop is likely [2] - Domestic industry: The medium - term de - stocking cycle of soybean oil may be ending, and the inventory may rebound after the arrival and customs clearance of South American imported soybeans [2] - Reference view: The short - term trend of the soybean oil 2509 contract may be range - bound [2] Group 2: Soybean Meal - Spot information: The spot prices of 43% soybean meal in Zhangjiagang, Tianjin, and Dongguan are 3090 yuan/ton (-10), 3300 yuan/ton (120), and 3270 yuan/ton (50) respectively [3] - Market analysis: The Sino - US trade tariff issue remains unresolved, affecting Sino - US soybean trade; the market focus has shifted to the North American sowing season, and Brazilian soybeans are about to enter the export peak; the current spot supply of soybean meal is tight, but it will gradually ease, and post - holiday downstream replenishment may boost short - term trading volume [3] - Reference view: Soybean meal may run weakly in the short term [3] Group 3: Corn - Spot information: The mainstream purchase prices of new corn in key deep - processing enterprises in Northeast China and Inner Mongolia, North China and Huanghuai are 2184 yuan/ton and 2404 yuan/ton respectively; the purchase prices in Jinzhou Port and Bayuquan Port are 2260 - 2270 yuan/ton and 2250 - 2270 yuan/ton respectively [4] - Market analysis: The Sino - US tariff dispute has limited impact on the corn market due to China's decreasing import dependence and import from Brazil; currently, the supply is tight, and the downstream demand is weak [4] - Reference view: The domestic corn market is in the old - new grain gap period, with prices likely to rise, and it is advisable to go long in the short term [4] Group 4: Copper - Spot information: The price of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper is 78300 - 78860 yuan, up 390 yuan, with a premium of 240 - 280 yuan; the imported copper ore index is - 42.61, down 0.09 [5] - Market analysis: The Fed maintains the interest rate, and there are uncertainties; domestic policies support the market; raw material issues persist, and copper is in a stage of resonance with complex market conditions [6] - Reference view: The monthly K - line of copper prices is balanced, and it is advisable to participate selectively based on the moving average system in the short term [6] Group 5: Lithium Carbonate - Spot information: The market prices of battery - grade (99.5%) and industrial - grade (99.2%) lithium carbonate are 66200 (-650) yuan/ton and 64500 (-650) yuan/ton respectively, with a stable price difference of 1700 yuan/ton [7] - Market analysis: Cost pressure is increasing, supply is rising (especially from mica and potential increase from salt - lake lithium extraction), and demand is improving but not enough to drive prices up; inventory is increasing [7][8] - Reference view: The lithium carbonate 2507 contract may oscillate weakly, and it is advisable to go short on rallies [8] Group 6: Steel - Spot information: The price of Shanghai rebar is 3160 yuan, the Tangshan operation rate is 83.56%, the social inventory is 532.76 million tons, and the steel mill inventory is 200.4 million tons [9] - Market analysis: The fundamentals of steel are improving, the contango structure is weakening, the valuation is moderately low; cost is dynamic, inventory is decreasing, and the market is in a supply - demand strong pattern [9] - Reference view: After the macro - negative factors are digested, it is advisable to go long on the far - month contract at low levels after May [9] Group 7: Coking Coal and Coke - Spot information: The price of Mongolian 5 coking coal is 1205 yuan/ton, and the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port is 1340 yuan/ton; the port inventories of imported coking coal and coke are 337.38 million tons and 246.10 million tons respectively [10] - Market analysis: Supply is relatively loose, demand is low, inventory is slightly increasing, and the profit is approaching the break - even point [10] - Reference view: Coking coal and coke will oscillate weakly and rebound at low levels, with limited upside [10] Group 8: Iron Ore - Spot information: The Platts iron ore index is 99.15, the price of Qingdao PB (61.5%) powder is 773 yuan, and the price of Australian 62% Fe powder ore is 761 yuan [11] - Market analysis: There are both bullish and bearish factors in the iron ore market; supply has a slight decline, port inventory is decreasing, and demand is mixed [11] - Reference view: The short - term trend of the iron ore 2505 contract will be oscillatory, and traders should be cautious [11] Group 9: Crude Oil - Market analysis: OPEC+ will increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in June, and the market expects oversupply; the Fed's stance and domestic policies in China have an impact, and the 55 - dollar/barrel level of WTI has technical support [12] - Reference view: WTI will mainly oscillate between 55 - 60 dollars/barrel [12] Group 10: Rubber - Market analysis: The impact of the US "reciprocal tariff" on rubber prices has been mostly priced in; supply is increasing, and demand may be affected by the US auto tariff [12] - Reference view: Pay attention to the downstream operation rate of Shanghai rubber, and there is support around 14,000 yuan/ton for the main contract [12] Group 11: PVC - Spot information: The mainstream price of East China Type 5 PVC is 4700 yuan/ton, and that of ethylene - based PVC is 5050 yuan/ton, both unchanged from the previous period [13] - Market analysis: The PVC production enterprise operation rate is increasing, demand is weak, and inventory is decreasing [13] - Reference view: Due to weak demand, the futures price may oscillate at a low level [13] Group 12: Soda Ash - Spot information: The national mainstream price of heavy soda ash is 1413.75 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period [14] - Market analysis: Supply is relatively stable with little production fluctuation, inventory is decreasing, and demand is average with resistance to high - price goods [14] - Reference view: The futures market of soda ash will mainly oscillate widely in the short term [14]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Copper prices are likely to fluctuate widely, with the X - factor driving the volatility. The long - term trend of copper prices is bearish, having completed the entire Kondratieff wave bubble in the first half of 2024. Currently, copper is in a strategic bearish phase, and any rebounds are tactical. The first bearish campaign has ended, and the second bearish campaign window opened in the first half of 2025, centered around the CU2505 - 06 contracts [2][20]. - In May 2025, the market is still within this window. The K - line from March to April has achieved a balance between yin and yang, suggesting that the rebound in the first half of the year has reached a high point. Attention should be paid to the suppression near the 60 - day weekly moving average [2][3]. 3. Summary by Directory Supply Side - **TC Decline**: In April 2025, the average TC dropped to around - 32.51 dollars. The continuous decline in TC indicates a severe mismatch between the mineral and smelting ends, which is a sign of an extreme shock in the mineral end and a major head signal for copper prices in the depression stage [4]. - **Production Growth**: From January to March 2025, the domestic refined copper production was 353.6 million tons, with a cumulative year - on - year growth rate of 5%, and the monthly production was 124.8 million tons, with a growth rate of 8.6%. Although the production growth rate has slightly increased, the smelting end is still in a state of serious loss, and the supply contraction expectation is difficult to change in the short term [2][5]. - **Inventory Adjustment**: At the end of April 2025, the total inventory of the three global locations was 41.87 million tons, a decrease of about 11.91 million tons compared to the previous month, mainly due to Chinese factors. The global inventory has entered an adjustment phase after reaching a new high, but the long - term inventory cycle trend is difficult to change [7]. Demand Side - **Improvement in Financing and M1/M2**: In March 2025, the social financing growth rate was 8.4, a month - on - month increase of 0.2, and the financing growth rate rebounded for two consecutive months. M1 increased by 1.5 month - on - month, while M2 remained unchanged. The improvement in M1 is more important, indicating that China has actually entered a new weak inventory cycle [14]. - **Recovery in Automobile and Real Estate**: From January to March 2025, the cumulative growth rate of automobile sales was 11.2, with a month - on - month change of - 1.9, and the automobile sales maintained double - digit growth for two consecutive months. The real estate sales from January to March were - 3, with a month - on - month change of 2.1, showing a marginal improvement [2]. Fed Interest Rate Meeting - The Fed's interest rate meeting in March 2025 maintained the status quo, and the meeting in May is expected to face an uncertain situation. In 2025, the global marginal impact is expected to ease, and Chinese - priced risk assets are expected to perform better [18]. Summary - The long - term trend of copper prices is bearish, and the current second - stage bearish campaign window is centered around the CU2505 - 06 contracts. The K - line from March to April suggests that the rebound in the first half of the year has reached a high point, and the annual high is likely to show a large - scale convergence trend [2][20].

证监函【2017】203 号 研究所 能源化工小组 研究员：李雨馨 从业资格号：F3023505 投资咨询号：Z0013987 初审： 沈欣萌：从业资格号：F3029146 投资咨询号：Z0014147 复审： 宏观方面：关注"对等关税"发展趋势，若继续保持紧张，则对全球贸易有重大打 李雨馨：从业资格号：F3023505 投资咨询号：Z0013987 综述: 橡胶供给宽松，价格弱势震荡 供给层面： 5 月国内产区全面开割阶段，物候条件较好，同时主产区如泰国、 越南 5 月份量逐步增加，新一年开割预期走强，同时进口量继续呈现同环比增 加趋势，对价格反弹预期有减弱。供应端利空市场。 进口层面：4 月受宏观情绪压制，海外采购节奏放缓下，上游工厂多集中往中国 发运，但有部分大厂船期推迟，环比 3 月增量有限。 需求层面： 5 月份轮胎样本企业产能利用率仍存下行预期。"五一"假期期间， 部分全钢胎及半钢胎企业存检修计划，多数在 3-7 天，将拖拽整体产能利用率 下行。市场需求表现不佳，月初部分物流公司存放假安排，企业库存向下转移受 阻。预计 5 月份整体出货增量有限，部分企业仍存控产行为，将影响整体产能利 用率提升幅度 ...

综述：供需双增下，5月钢价低位宽幅震荡 基本面二维四象 投资咨询业务资格 皖证监函【2017】203 号 投资咨询部 黑色金属小组 研究员：曹帅 从业资格号：F03088816 投资咨询号：Z0019565 初审： 沈欣萌：从业资格号：F3029146 投资咨询号：Z0014147 复审： 李雨馨：从业资格号：F3023505 投资咨询号：Z0013987 数据来源：同花顺，安粮期货投资咨询部 市场分析：市场分析：钢材前期较低迷的基本面已在价格结构中逐步体现，远强 近弱，contango 结构弱化，当前钢材估值中性偏低。从成本库存来看，随着宏 观扰动消退叠加需求修复，原料价格震荡运行，钢材成本中枢动态构建。钢材社 会库存及钢厂库存双双去库。预计钢价 5 月偏强运行，建议逢低偏多思路对待。 一、螺纹钢 4 月行情回顾：关税阴霾下，钢价偏弱震荡 图 1：螺纹钢期货价格走势 数据来源：同花顺，安粮期货投资咨询部 二、螺纹钢市场结构：Congtango 弱化；05 贴水 10，10 贴水 01 三、供给端：开工率及铁水大幅上涨，钢材供应压力增大 数据分析：截至 2025 年 5 月 02 号，Mysteel 调研的 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The impact of the tariff event on the corn market is limited, and domestic corn prices are still dominated by domestic supply - demand logic. Currently in the window period between old and new supplies, the tight supply makes the futures price more likely to rise than fall, and there may be an upward expectation for corn prices in the medium - to - long term [5][36][37] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Corn Market Structure - In early May, the corn index price in April first fluctuated and then rose. After falling to 2,260 yuan/ton in early April, it fluctuated in the range until late April, then rebounded and tested the resistance level of 2,350 yuan/ton, and continued to test 2,400 yuan/ton after a successful breakthrough. The supply is gradually tightening due to factors such as the clearing of grassroots surplus grain, a sharp drop in imports in Q1, and the price increase of new wheat. The downstream demand has limited boosting effect. Although the tariff event may affect corn prices, corn prices are still dominated by domestic supply - demand logic [7] - The overall futures - spot structure shows that 05 is at a discount to 09, and 09 is at a premium to 01 [8] 3.2 Market行情 Analysis 3.2.1 Supply Side - **Global Corn 4 - month USDA Report Shows Tightening Supply - Demand**: The USDA's April report shows that in the 2024/25 season, the corn production outside the US has been adjusted upwards, with some increases offset by decreases. The global ending inventory is 287.7 million tons, a decrease of 1.3 million tons. The overall data interpretation is neutral [10] - **Market Surplus Grain is Almost Exhausted, and Grain Sources are Gradually Transferred to Traders**: The 2024/25 corn production is still in the high - yield category. Different institutions have different judgments on the increase or decrease in production. Currently, the surplus grain in most producing areas has been exhausted, and most grain sources have been transferred to traders and processing enterprises. The selling progress of farmers may slow down, and the supply in the market has tightened. However, due to the price difference between North China and Northeast China, the market liquidity is good [12][13] - **Tariff Policy Tightens Imports and Boosts Confidence in the Domestic Corn Market**: Since April 10, a 84% tariff has been imposed on US goods, and the import tax rate of US corn is as high as 99%, which stimulates domestic grain procurement. Although the import cost of agricultural products will increase and the import volume from the US is expected to decline, China has diversified its grain import layout in recent years, so the impact of the tariff policy on corn is relatively limited [17] 3.2.2 Demand Side - **Slow Capacity Reduction of Pig Production, Limited Increment in Feed Consumption**: As of March 2025, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.39 million. The pig market is under pressure from both cost and supply sides and will show low - profit characteristics throughout the year. Although the feed consumption of pigs is expected to increase year - on - year, it is mainly to digest the previous inventory. There is a large - scale rigid demand for feed, but it is difficult to have an increment [23] - **Deep - processing Enterprises are in Loss, and Demand Boost is Limited**: Due to weak macro - economic growth and general downstream demand, the deep - processing profit is poor. The Sino - US tariff confrontation will continue to put pressure on product sales. As of April 3, the starch enterprise operating rate was 61.13%, and the processing profit was - 260 yuan/ton. Enterprises' procurement is relatively cautious [34] 3.3 Market Outlook - The impact of the tariff event on the corn market is limited, and domestic corn prices are still dominated by domestic supply - demand logic. Currently in the window period between old and new supplies, the tight supply makes the futures price more likely to rise than fall, and there may be an upward expectation for corn prices in the medium - to - long term [5][36][37]

Group 1: Soybean Oil - Spot market: The price of Grade 1 soybean oil at Rizhao Cargill is 8,060 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1] - International soybeans: It's currently the U.S. soybean sowing season and the South American soybean harvesting and exporting season, with Brazil's soybean harvest almost completed. South American new - crop soybean is likely to have a bumper harvest [1] - Domestic industry: The medium - term destocking cycle of soybean oil may be ending. After the arrival of South American imported soybeans and customs clearance, the soybean oil inventory may rebound from a low level [1] - Reference view: The short - term trading of the soybean oil 2509 contract may fluctuate within a range [1] Group 2: Soybean Meal - Spot information: The spot prices of 43 soybean meal in different regions are: Zhangjiagang 3,100 yuan/ton (- 220), Tianjin 3,180 yuan/ton (- 120), Rizhao 3,090 yuan/ton (- 440), Dongguan 3,220 yuan/ton (- 160) [2] - Market analysis: The Sino - U.S. trade tariff issue remains unresolved, affecting Sino - U.S. soybean trade. The market focus has shifted to the North American sowing season, and Brazilian soybeans are about to enter the export peak. Currently, the spot supply of soybean meal is tight, but it will gradually ease as the concentrated arrival of imported soybeans restores oil mill operations. Post - holiday downstream restocking may boost short - term trading volume [2] - Reference view: Soybean meal may run weakly in the short term [2] Group 3: Corn - Spot information: The mainstream purchase prices of new corn are: 2,184 yuan/ton in key deep - processing enterprises in Northeast China and Inner Mongolia; 2,404 yuan/ton in key enterprises in North China and Huanghuai; 2,260 - 2,270 yuan/ton at Jinzhou Port (15% moisture/680 - 720 bulk density); 2,250 - 2,270 yuan/ton at Bayuquan Port (680 - 730 bulk density/15% moisture) [3] - Market analysis: The Sino - U.S. tariff dispute has limited impact on the corn market due to China's decreasing import dependence and import substitution from Brazil. Domestically, the supply is gradually tightening due to factors such as the end of the harvest season, a sharp decrease in imports in the first quarter, and the price increase of new wheat. Downstream demand is weak, with cautious purchasing and low consumption [3] - Reference view: The domestic corn market is in the gap between old and new grains, and the corn price is likely to rise. Short - term trading should focus on long positions [3] Group 4: Copper - Spot information: The price of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper is 78,030 - 78,350 yuan, up 240 yuan, with a premium of 250 - 320 yuan. The imported copper ore index is - 42.61, down 0.09 [4] - Market analysis: The global market is still affected by "irrational" tariffs, with high volatility in overseas capital markets. The Fed's uncertain actions add to the long - term uncertainty. Domestically, policies are boosting market sentiment. The raw material supply problem persists, and the rapid decline in domestic copper inventory intensifies the game between reality and expectations [5] - Reference view: The monthly K - line of copper price shows a balance between yin and yang. Attention should be paid to the suppression effect of the moving average system [5] Group 5: Lithium Carbonate - Spot information: The market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%) is 66,850 yuan/ton (- 1,050 yuan/ton), and that of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2%) is 65,150 yuan/ton (- 1,050 yuan/ton). The price difference between the two remains unchanged at 1,700 yuan/ton [6] - Market analysis: The cost pressure is increasing, with lithium ore prices dropping rapidly and reducing smelting enterprises' profit margins. Supply is increasing, especially from the mica end, and the production capacity of salt - lake lithium extraction will further expand with rising temperatures. Demand has improved but is still insufficient to drive prices up [6] - Inventory: Weekly inventory has been accumulating. As of April 24, the weekly inventory is 131,864 (+ 259) physical tons. The monthly inventory in March is 90,070 physical tons, a year - on - year increase of 47% and a month - on - month increase of 17% [7] - Reference view: The lithium carbonate 2507 contract may fluctuate weakly. Short - selling on rallies is recommended [7] Group 6: Steel - Spot information: The price of Shanghai rebar is 3,160 yuan, the Tangshan operation rate is 83.56%, the social inventory is 5.3276 million tons, and the rebar mill inventory is 2.004 million tons [8] - Market analysis: The fundamentals of steel are gradually improving, with the contango structure weakening and the current valuation being moderately low. Policy supports the real estate industry. The apparent demand for steel has decreased year - on - year, raw material prices have fluctuated weakly this week, and the cost center of steel is dynamically changing. Both social and mill inventories are decreasing, and the overall inventory level is low. Short - term macro - policy expectations dominate the market, and the market shows a pattern of strong supply and demand [8] - Reference view: After the macro - negative factors are digested, a long - position strategy at low prices for far - month contracts after May is recommended [8] Group 7: Coking Coal and Coke - Spot information: The price of coking coal (clean coal, Meng 5) is 1,205 yuan/ton; the price of metallurgical coke (Grade 1) at Rizhao Port is 1,340 yuan/ton; the port inventory of imported coking coal is 3.3738 million tons; the port inventory of coke is 2.461 million tons [9] - Market analysis: Supply is relatively loose, with domestic production capacity recovering steadily and the coking plant utilization rate stable. Mongolian coal imports remain at a high level. Demand is weak, with steel mills reducing production and iron - water output expected to decline. Independent coking enterprises maintain low raw - material inventories, and the overall inventory is slightly increasing. The average profit per ton of coke is stable and approaching the break - even point [9] - Reference view: Due to the loose supply, coking coal and coke may have a weak rebound with limited upside potential [9] Group 8: Iron Ore - Spot information: The Platts iron ore index is 98.15, the price of Qingdao PB (61.5%) powder is 765 yuan, and the price of Australian iron ore powder (62% Fe) is 760 yuan [10] - Market analysis: The iron ore market has both positive and negative factors. Supply has decreased slightly, with Australian shipments falling and Brazilian shipments rising. Port inventory has decreased by 1.1239 million tons. Demand has increased, with domestic steel mills' iron - water output rising, but steel mills' raw - material procurement remains cautious. Overseas demand is differentiated, and the U.S. tariff policy has increased price volatility [10] - Reference view: The short - term trading of the iron ore 2505 contract may be weak and fluctuate. Traders are advised to be cautious [10] Group 9: Crude Oil - Market analysis: OPEC+ will increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in June, and the market expects an oversupply. The price of WTI crude oil may decline, but it has technical support at 55 dollars/barrel. The U.S. trade war and the delay of the Russia - Ukraine peace talks have increased uncertainty, and the second - quarter demand may be severely affected [11] - Reference view: Pay attention to the follow - up trend of the domestic market as WTI has support at 55 dollars/barrel [11] Group 10: Rubber - Market analysis: The impact of the U.S. "reciprocal tariff" on rubber prices has been mostly priced in, and the market is now driven by fundamentals. The supply is relatively loose, with domestic and Southeast Asian rubber plantations starting to harvest. The U.S. automobile tariff may suppress global rubber demand. Attention should be paid to domestic rubber imports and inventory changes [11] - Reference view: Pay attention to the downstream operation rate of Shanghai rubber. The main contract may rebound near the support level of 14,000 yuan/ton [11] Group 11: PVC - Spot information: The mainstream price of East China Type 5 PVC is 4,700 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton from the previous period; the mainstream price of ethylene - based PVC is 5,050 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price difference between the two is 350 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton [12] - Market analysis: The PVC production enterprise operation rate increased by 0.70% week - on - week to 79.33% last week. Domestic downstream demand has not improved significantly, with mainly rigid - demand transactions. As of April 30, the PVC social inventory decreased by 4.94% week - on - week to 653,700 tons [12] - Reference view: Due to the weak demand, the futures price may fluctuate at a low level [12] Group 12: Soda Ash - Spot information: The national mainstream price of heavy soda ash is 1,414.69 yuan/ton, unchanged. The mainstream prices in East China, North China, and Central China are also unchanged [13] - Market analysis: Before the holiday, the overall operation rate of soda ash was 89.44%, down 0.06% week - on - week, and the production was 755,100 tons, down 0.05 million tons. The inventory of manufacturers decreased by 20,300 tons to 1.691 million tons, and the social inventory also decreased. Demand is average, with downstream enterprises only replenishing inventory for low - price goods [13] - Reference view: After the holiday, the futures market may fluctuate widely in the short term [13]

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the reports 2. Core Views - **Soybean and Related Products**: Soybean oil 2509 contract may fluctuate within a range in the short - term; soybean meal may oscillate weakly; after the holiday, the Dalian Commodity Exchange corn price is expected to follow the foreign market, but domestic factors will dominate later [1] - **Copper**: The monthly K - line of copper price shows a balance between yin and yang, and attention should be paid to the suppression effect of the moving average system [2] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The 2507 contract of lithium carbonate may oscillate weakly, and short - selling on rallies is advisable [3][4] - **Steel**: After the macro - negative factors are digested, a long - position strategy can be considered for the far - month contracts at low levels after May [5] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Due to the loose supply, coking coal and coke may have a weak rebound at low levels, with limited upside space [6] - **Iron Ore**: The 2505 contract of iron ore may decline with oscillations in the short - term [7] - **Crude Oil**: The WTI main contract has support at $55 per barrel, and the domestic market may offset the decline during the holiday, with neutral fluctuations [8] - **Rubber**: Attention should be paid to the downstream operation rate of Shanghai rubber, and the main contract has support at around 14,000 yuan per ton [9] - **PVC**: The futures price may oscillate at a low level due to weak demand [10] - **Soda Ash**: After the holiday, the futures market is expected to oscillate widely in the short - term [11] 3. Summary by Commodity Soybean and Related Products - **Market Conditions**: As of May 2, the US soybean and soybean oil futures rose. South American new - crop soybeans are likely to have a bumper harvest. The mid - term de - stocking cycle of domestic soybean oil may end, and the inventory may rebound. The supply of domestic soybean meal is expected to ease, and the downstream will start restocking [1] - **Spot Information**: 43% soybean meal prices in Tianjin, Rizhao, and Dongguan are 3300 yuan/ton, 3530 yuan/ton, and 3380 yuan/ton respectively; new - corn purchase prices in different regions are provided [1] Copper - **Market Conditions**: The global market is affected by tariffs, and the overseas capital market is highly volatile. The Fed's actions are uncertain. Domestically, policies are boosting market sentiment. The raw material supply of copper still has problems, and the price is in a resonance state [2] - **Spot Information**: The price of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper is 77840 - 78060 yuan, down 85 yuan, with a premium of 200 - 260 yuan [2] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Conditions**: The cost of lithium carbonate is decreasing as the price of spodumene concentrate drops. Supply is increasing with a slowdown in growth rate, and the resumption of production at salt lakes may impact prices. Demand has improved but lacks upward momentum [3] - **Inventory**: Weekly inventory has been accumulating. As of April 24, the total inventory was 131,864 tons, with increases in smelter and downstream inventories [4] - **Spot Information**: The market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%) is 67,900 yuan/ton, and that of industrial - grade (99.2%) is 662,000 yuan/ton [3] Steel - **Market Conditions**: The fundamentals of steel are improving, with a weakening contango structure and a neutral - low valuation. Policy supports the real estate industry. The cost of steel is dynamic, and inventories are decreasing [5] - **Spot Information**: Shanghai rebar price is 3160 yuan, with social and mill inventories of 532.76 million tons and 200.4 million tons respectively [5] Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Conditions**: Supply is relatively loose, with stable domestic production and high - level Mongolian coal imports. Demand is weak due to steel mill production cuts. Inventories are slightly increasing, and profit is approaching the break - even point [6] - **Spot Information**: The price of main coking coal and metallurgical coke at different ports is provided, along with port inventories [6] Iron Ore - **Market Conditions**: Supply and demand factors are mixed. Australian shipments have decreased, while Brazilian shipments are rising. Port inventories have decreased, and domestic steel mill demand has increased, but procurement is still cautious. Trade - war concerns limit price increases [7] - **Spot Information**: Iron ore indexes and prices of different types of iron ore are provided [7] Crude Oil - **Market Conditions**: OPEC+ will increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in June, and the market expects oversupply. The WTI main contract has support at $55 per barrel [8] - **Spot Information**: Not provided Rubber - **Market Conditions**: The impact of US tariffs on rubber prices has been mostly priced in. The supply is increasing as domestic and Southeast Asian rubber trees start to be tapped. Demand may be affected by trade - war factors [8] - **Spot Information**: Not provided PVC - **Market Conditions**: The production rate of PVC has increased, but downstream demand has not improved significantly. Social inventories have decreased [10] - **Spot Information**: The prices of different types of PVC and the price difference are provided [10] Soda Ash - **Market Conditions**: The production of soda ash is stable, and inventories are decreasing. Demand is average, with a preference for low - price products. The market sentiment has improved, but the fundamental driving force is weak [11] - **Spot Information**: The mainstream prices of heavy soda ash in different regions are provided [11]

1、现货市场：日照嘉吉一级豆油 8140 元/吨，较上一交易日持平。 2、宏观：特朗普时期的"对等关税"政策通过重塑全球贸易流、产业链定价权及市场风险 偏好，对期货市场形成了系统性冲击。 3、市场分析：当前时间窗口下，正处美豆播种与南美豆收割、出口季，目前巴西豆收割基 本完成。总体来看，南美新作丰产格局或将大概率成为事实。后市豆油中期新增供给与下 游需求或维持中性，豆油中期库存或维持整理。 4、参考观点：豆油 2509 合约，短线或区间震荡整理。 现货信息：43 豆粕各地区现货报价：张家港 3320 元/吨（-130）、天津 3400 元/吨（-180）、 日照 3580 元/吨（-70）、东莞 3620 元/吨（-70）。 市场分析：（1）宏观面: 中美贸易关税问题暂未解决，影响中美大豆贸易。 （2）国际大豆：美豆开启播种，进度超过预期。巴西大豆即将进入出口高峰期。 （3）国内豆粕供需面：巴西大豆逐渐到港，油厂开机率回升，豆粕供给预期将逐渐转为宽 松。现货市场五一节前备货与油厂开工出现错配，豆粕库存降至低点。 参考观点：豆粕短线或偏弱运行。 现货信息：东北三省及内蒙重点深加工企业新玉米主流收购均价 2128 ...