Group 1: Rapeseed Oil - Spot price: The price of imported third - grade rapeseed oil in Dongguan Zhongliang, Dongguan is 9300 yuan/ton (converted as OI09 + 120), up 40 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [2] - Market analysis: Domestic rapeseed is about to be listed. Near - term imported rapeseed supply is abundant, while long - term supply is tight. Downstream demand is neutral, and short - to - medium - term inventory may remain high [2] - Reference view: The Rapeseed Oil 2509 contract may fluctuate within a range in the short term [2] Group 2: Soybean Meal - Spot price: The spot prices of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang, Tianjin, Rizhao, and Dongguan are 2840 yuan/ton, 2920 yuan/ton, 2850 yuan/ton, and 2840 yuan/ton respectively [3] - Market analysis: The US tariff policy is changeable. Sino - US leaders' phone call boosts market confidence. US soybean planting is going smoothly, and Brazil is in the peak export period. Domestic soybean supply is recovering, and the supply pressure of soybean meal is emerging. Downstream demand is weak, and inventory accumulation is slow [3] - Reference view: Currently dominated by sentiment, soybean meal may fluctuate strongly in the short term [3] Group 3: Corn - Spot price: The mainstream purchase prices of new corn in key deep - processing enterprises in Northeast China and Inner Mongolia, North China and Huanghuai are 2206 yuan/ton and 2413 yuan/ton respectively. The purchase prices in Jinzhou Port and Bayuquan Port are 2270 - 2300 yuan/ton [4] - Market analysis: The weather in the US corn - producing areas is good. The domestic corn market is in the transition period, with tight supply. Wheat may replace corn in the feed field. Downstream demand is weak [4] - Reference view: Corn futures prices will mainly fluctuate within a range in the short term. Pay attention to the new wheat listing and weather changes [4] Group 4: Copper - Spot price: The price of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper is 78740 - 79010, with a rise of 0, and a premium of 20 - 150. The imported copper ore index is - 43.29, up 0.72 [5] - Market analysis: US non - farm data eases recession concerns and reduces the expectation of interest rate cuts. Global tariff confrontation continues. Domestic policies boost market sentiment. Raw material problems persist, and domestic copper inventory is falling [5] - Reference view: Copper prices may test the bubble node again. Wait for weak signals [5] Group 5: Lithium Carbonate - Spot price: The market prices of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%) and industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2%) are 60800 yuan/ton and 59150 yuan/ton respectively, with a price difference of 1650 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous trading day [6] - Market analysis: The raw material end shows signs of stabilization. Supply is stable but the structure is adjusting. Demand is weak. The market may continue to fluctuate at the bottom [6] - Reference view: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can conduct range operations [6] Group 6: Steel - Spot price: The price of Shanghai rebar is 3090. Tangshan's operating rate is 83.56%. Social inventory is 532.76 million tons, and steel mill inventory is 200.4 million tons [7] - Market analysis: The fundamentals of steel are improving. The cost is dynamically adjusted, and inventory is low. The market is dominated by macro - policy expectations in the short term, showing a pattern of strong supply and demand [7] - Reference view: Steel is in the process of valuation repair. Adopt a long - on - dips strategy in the short term [7] Group 7: Coking Coal and Coke - Spot price: The ex - warehouse price of main coking coal in Jingtang Port is 1270 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price in Shanxi Lvliang is 1070 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton (a decline of 2.73%). The flat - price of coke in Rizhao Port is 1410 yuan/ton, unchanged. Steel mill coke inventory is at a 5 - month low but up 18% year - on - year [7] - Market analysis: Some coal mines in Shanxi reduce production due to environmental protection, but imported coal remains high. Coking plant capacity utilization rate decreases, and the loss per ton of coke expands. Iron - water production decreases slightly, and steel mill inventory pressure eases [7][8] - Reference view: The main coking coal and coke contracts may fluctuate in the near term. Pay attention to steel mill inventory reduction and policy implementation [7][8] Group 8: Iron Ore - Spot price: The Platts index of iron ore is 95.65. The price of Qingdao PB (61.5%) powder is 728, and the price of Australian iron ore powder (62% Fe) is 732. The closing price of the main iron ore contract is 707, down 0.71% from the previous trading day [9] - Market analysis: Global iron ore shipments increase. Domestic demand is under seasonal pressure. Port inventory is at a high level, suppressing prices. The main contract is in a sideways consolidation phase [9] - Reference view: The Iron Ore 2509 contract may fluctuate in the short term. Pay attention to port inventory reduction speed and steel mill resumption of production. In the long term, prices may be further pressured [9] Group 9: Crude Oil - Market analysis: US non - farm data eases recession concerns. OPEC lowers global demand growth forecasts. US trade wars and geopolitical issues increase supply uncertainty. OPEC + agrees to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in July [10] - Reference view: The WTI main contract should focus on whether it can break through the 65 - dollar/barrel level in the short term. In the long term, without major geopolitical impacts on supply, the upside of crude oil is limited [10] Group 10: Rubber - Spot price: The prices of domestic whole - latex, Thai RSS3, Vietnamese 3L standard rubber, and No. 20 rubber are 13650 yuan/ton, 19800 yuan/ton, 15000 yuan/ton, and 13850 yuan/ton respectively. The prices of raw materials in Hat Yai are as follows: RSS3 is 65.9 baht/kg, latex is 56 baht/kg, cup lump is 44.9 baht/kg, and raw rubber is 62.26 baht/kg [11] - Market analysis: The US trade war policy is changeable. The supply of rubber is loose globally, and downstream tire operating rates decline. After the negative factors are realized, there is an expectation of a weak rebound [11][12] - Reference view: Pay attention to the downstream operating rate of Shanghai rubber. Supply exceeds demand, but a weak rebound pattern may start in the short term [12] Group 11: PVC - Spot price: The mainstream price of East China 5 - type PVC is 4700 yuan/ton, unchanged. The mainstream price of ethylene - based PVC is 5000 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price difference between the two is 300 yuan/ton, unchanged [13] - Market analysis: PVC production enterprise capacity utilization rate increases. Downstream demand shows no obvious improvement. Social inventory decreases [13] - Reference view: The fundamentals remain weak, and futures prices will fluctuate at a low level [13] Group 12: Soda Ash - Spot price: The national mainstream price of heavy soda ash is 1364.63 yuan/ton, down 10.62 yuan/ton. The mainstream prices in East China, North China, and Central China are 1375 yuan/ton, 1400 yuan/ton, and 1350 yuan/ton respectively, with different changes [14] - Market analysis: The overall operating rate of soda ash increases, and production rises. Factory inventory slightly increases, and social inventory decreases. Downstream demand is average [14] - Reference view: The futures market is expected to continue to fluctuate within the bottom - range in the short term [14]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information provided Group 2: Report Core Views - Rapeseed oil 2509 contract may fluctuate within a range in the short term [2] - Soybean meal may fluctuate within a range in the short term [3] - Corn futures prices will mainly fluctuate within a range in the short term, and attention should be paid to the situation of new wheat listing and weather changes [4] - Copper prices have deviated from the moving - average system. This week, focus on its effectiveness as the basis for whether the defense is lifted [5] - The lithium carbonate 2507 contract may oscillate weakly, and short positions can be taken on rallies [6][7] - Steel has started to repair its valuation, and a short - term bullish approach can be taken on dips [8] - Due to news disturbances, coking coal and coke will rebound from oversold levels at low positions [9] - Iron ore 2509 will mainly oscillate in the short term, and traders are reminded to be cautious about investment risks [10] - WTI crude oil will mainly oscillate around $60 - $65 per barrel [11] - Pay attention to the downstream operating rate of Shanghai rubber. After the bearish factors are realized, the price will rebound due to improved sentiment [12] - The fundamentals of PVC remain weak, and the futures price will oscillate at a low level [13] - The soda ash futures market is expected to continue to oscillate in the bottom - range in the short term [14] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Spot Information - Dongguan Zhongliang's imported third - grade rapeseed oil is priced at 9,260 yuan/ton (converted as OI09 + 120), down 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [2] - Soybean meal spot prices in Zhangjiagang are 2,770 yuan/ton, Tianjin 2,850 yuan/ton, Rizhao 2,790 yuan/ton, and Dongguan 2,780 yuan/ton [3] - The mainstream purchase price of new corn in key deep - processing enterprises in the three northeastern provinces and Inner Mongolia is 2,206 yuan/ton; in key enterprises in North China and the Huang - Huai region, it is 2,413 yuan/ton; the purchase price at Jinzhou Port is 2,270 - 2,300 yuan/ton; at Bayuquan Port, it is 2,270 - 2,300 yuan/ton [4] - The price of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper is 78,760 - 78,990 yuan, up 460 yuan, with a premium of flat - 150 yuan. The imported copper ore index is - 43.29, up 0.72 [5] - The market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%) is 60,800 yuan/ton, and that of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2%) is 59,150 yuan/ton, with a price difference of 1,650 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous trading day [6] - The price of Shanghai rebar is 3,090 yuan, the Tangshan operating rate is 83.56%, the social inventory is 5.3276 million tons, and the steel mill inventory is 2.004 million tons [8] - The price of main coking coal (clean coal, Mongolia 5) is 1,205 yuan/ton; the price of metallurgical coke (quasi - first - grade) at Rizhao Port is 1,340 yuan/ton. The port inventory of imported coking coal is 3.3738 million tons, and the port inventory of coke is 2.461 million tons [9] - The iron ore Platts index is 97.2, the price of Qingdao PB (61.5%) powder is 735 yuan, and the price of Australian iron ore powder (62% Fe) is 737 yuan [10] - The spot prices of rubber are: domestic whole - latex 13,500 yuan/ton, Thai RSS3 20,000 yuan/ton, Vietnamese 3L standard rubber 14,950 yuan/ton, and No. 20 rubber 14,100 yuan/ton. The raw material prices in Hat Yai are: RSS3 63.87 Thai baht/kg, latex 56.5 Thai baht/kg, cup lump 49.5 Thai baht/kg, and raw rubber 60.5 Thai baht/kg [12] - The mainstream spot price of East China Type 5 PVC is 4,680 yuan/ton, and that of ethylene - based PVC is 5,000 yuan/ton, both remaining unchanged from the previous period. The price difference between ethylene - based and calcium - carbide - based PVC is 320 yuan/ton, also remaining unchanged [13] - The national mainstream price of heavy soda ash is 1,373.75 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous period. The mainstream prices in East China, North China, and Central China are 1,400 yuan/ton, 1,450 yuan/ton, and 1,350 yuan/ton respectively, all remaining unchanged [14] Market Analysis - Rapeseed oil: Domestic rapeseed is about to be listed one after another. In the near term, the supply of imported rapeseed is abundant, while in the long term, it is relatively tight. The downstream demand for rapeseed oil is neutral, and the inventory may remain high in the short and medium term [2] - Soybean meal: The Sino - US trade has reached a phased agreement, but long - term contradictions still exist. Tariff policies and weather are the main driving factors for international soybean prices. The sowing of US soybeans is going smoothly, and it is the peak export period for Brazilian soybeans. In China, the supply of soybeans is gradually recovering, the supply pressure of soybean meal is becoming prominent, the trading volume is shrinking, and the downstream purchasing intention is weak [3] - Corn: The weather in US corn - producing areas is favorable for sowing and growth. The Sino - US trade relationship has eased, and there are concerns about long - term import pressure. In China, the corn market is in the off - season between old and new grains, the supply may be tight, wheat may replace corn in the feed field, and weather speculation will affect prices. The downstream demand is weak [4] - Copper: The US non - farm payrolls data exceeded expectations, reducing the expectation of interest rate cuts this year. Global tariff confrontations continue, and China's support policies are boosting market sentiment. On the industrial side, raw material disturbances are intensifying, and domestic copper inventories are declining [5] - Lithium carbonate: The cost pressure is increasing, the supply is still high, the demand is differentiated, and the inventory is changing. The prices of spot and futures are falling, and attention should be paid to upstream production cuts [6] - Steel: The fundamentals of steel are gradually improving, the valuation is relatively low, the cost is dynamically changing, the inventory is at a low level, and the short - term market is dominated by macro - policy expectations [8] - Coking coal and coke: The supply is relatively loose, the demand is weak, the inventory is gradually increasing, and the profit is approaching the break - even point [9] - Iron ore: The market has both bullish and bearish factors. The supply has slightly decreased, the port inventory has decreased, the domestic demand has slightly declined, the overseas demand is differentiated, and news factors are suppressing the upward space [10] - Crude oil: The US - Iran negotiation has encountered setbacks, the Russia - Ukraine war has intensified, and the OPEC+ meeting has agreed to increase production in July, but there are objections. The supply may shrink, and the global demand is worrying [11] - Rubber: The supply is abundant, the US trade war and tariffs may suppress demand, and after the bearish factors are realized, the price may rebound due to improved sentiment [12] - PVC: The production capacity utilization rate has increased, the downstream demand has not improved significantly, the inventory has decreased, and the futures price is oscillating at a low level [13] - Soda ash: The supply is increasing, the inventory is slightly increasing, the demand is average, and the market lacks new driving forces, so it is expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short term [14]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Reports - Rapeseed oil contract 2509 may test the lower support platform in the short term [2] - Soybean meal may fluctuate within a range in the short term [3] - Corn futures prices will mainly fluctuate within a range in the short term, and attention should be paid to the situation of new wheat listing and weather changes [4] - Copper prices show signs of breaking away from the moving - average system, and attention should be paid to its effectiveness for defense [5] - Carbonate lithium contract 2507 may fluctuate weakly, and short positions can be taken on rallies [6][7] - Steel is starting to repair its valuation, and a short - term strategy of buying on dips is recommended [8] - Coking coal and coke may rebound from oversold levels at low positions due to news disturbances [9] - Iron ore 2509 will mainly fluctuate in the short term, and traders are reminded to be cautious about investment risks [10] - WTI crude oil will mainly fluctuate around $60 - $65 per barrel [11] - Attention should be paid to the downstream operating rate of Shanghai rubber. After the bearish factors are realized, the price will rebound with improved sentiment [12] - PVC futures prices will oscillate at a low level with a still - weak fundamental situation [13] - Soda ash futures prices are expected to continue to oscillate in the bottom - range in the short term [14] Group 3: Summaries by Commodity Rapeseed Oil - **Spot Information**: The price of imported third - grade rapeseed oil in Dongguan Zhongliang, Dongguan, is 9,270 yuan/ton (converted as OI09 + 120), up 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [2] - **Market Analysis**: Domestic rapeseed is about to be listed. Near - month imported rapeseed supply is abundant, while far - month supply is tight. Downstream demand is neutral, and inventories may remain high in the short and medium term [2] Soybean Meal - **Spot Information**: Spot prices in Zhangjiagang are 2,770 yuan/ton, Tianjin 2,850 yuan/ton, Rizhao 2,790 yuan/ton, and Dongguan 2,780 yuan/ton [3] - **Market Analysis**: Sino - US trade has reached a phased agreement, but long - term contradictions remain. Tariffs and weather drive international soybean prices. In China, soybean supply is recovering, and the supply pressure of soybean meal is emerging. Downstream procurement is weak, and inventories are slowly accumulating [3] Corn - **Spot Information**: The average purchase price of new corn in key deep - processing enterprises in Northeast China and Inner Mongolia is 2,204 yuan/ton; in North China and Huanghuai, it is 2,423 yuan/ton. The purchase prices in Jinzhou Port and Bayuquan Port are 2,270 - 2,300 yuan/ton [4] - **Market Analysis**: Abroad, good weather in US corn - growing areas eases concerns, but Sino - US trade may increase import pressure. Domestically, there is a supply shortage during the grain - transition period. Wheat may replace corn in feed use, and downstream demand is weak [4] Copper - **Spot Information**: The price of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper is 78,290 - 78,540 yuan, down 700 yuan. The import copper ore index is - 43.56, up 0.72 [5] - **Market Analysis**: US economic data and political factors affect the possible interest - rate cut path. Global trade frictions continue. Domestic policies support the market. Raw material issues persist, and copper inventories are declining [5] Carbonate Lithium - **Spot Information**: The market price of battery - grade carbonate lithium (99.5%) is 60,800 yuan/ton, and industrial - grade (99.2%) is 59,150 yuan/ton, with a price difference of 1,650 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day [6] - **Market Analysis**: Cost pressure is increasing, ore prices are falling, and inventories are high. Supply capacity utilization is above average, and demand is differentiated. Phosphoric acid iron - lithium batteries and ternary batteries are shrinking [6] Steel - **Spot Information**: The price of Shanghai rebar is 3,090 yuan, the Tangshan start - up rate is 83.56%, social inventory is 532.76 million tons, and steel mill inventory is 200.4 million tons [8] - **Market Analysis**: The steel fundamentals are improving, with a lower valuation. Policy supports the real - estate industry. Raw material prices are weak, and inventory levels are low [8] Coking Coal and Coke - **Spot Information**: The price of main coking coal (Meng 5) is 1,205 yuan/ton, and the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Rizhao Port is 1,340 yuan/ton. The port inventory of imported coking coal is 337.38 million tons, and coke inventory is 246.10 million tons [9] - **Market Analysis**: Supply is relatively loose, demand is low due to steel mill production cuts, and inventories are slightly increasing. The average profit per ton of coke is approaching the break - even point [9] Iron Ore - **Spot Information**: The Platts iron ore index is 97.2, the price of Qingdao PB (61.5%) powder is 735 yuan, and Australian powder ore (62% Fe) is 737 yuan [10] - **Market Analysis**: Supply and demand factors are mixed. Australian shipments are falling, Brazilian shipments are rising, and port inventories are decreasing. Domestic steel mill demand is weak, and overseas demand is differentiated [10] Crude Oil - **Spot Information**: No specific spot price information provided - **Market Analysis**: Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and OPEC+ production decisions affect supply. OPEC has lowered global demand growth forecasts, and trade disputes raise concerns about demand [11] Rubber - **Spot Information**: The price of domestic full - latex rubber is 13,500 yuan/ton, Thai smoked three - piece rubber is 20,000 yuan/ton, Vietnamese 3L standard rubber is 14,950 yuan/ton, and 20 - grade rubber is 14,100 yuan/ton [12] - **Market Analysis**: Trade - war tariffs and oversupply drag down rubber prices. After the bearish factors are realized, the price will rebound. Supply is abundant with full - scale tapping in domestic and Southeast Asian regions [12] PVC - **Spot Information**: The mainstream price of East China 5 - type PVC is 4,680 yuan/ton, and ethylene - based PVC is 5,000 yuan/ton, both unchanged from the previous period [13] - **Market Analysis**: Supply capacity utilization is increasing, demand from downstream enterprises is still weak, and social inventories are decreasing [13] Soda Ash - **Spot Information**: The national mainstream price of heavy soda ash is 1,373.75 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period [14] - **Market Analysis**: Supply is increasing with a higher start - up rate and production. Inventories are slightly increasing, and demand is average, with downstream resistance to high - priced goods [14]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided on industry investment ratings in the given reports. 2. Core Views - **Vegetable Oils and Grains** - Rapeseed oil 2509 contract may oscillate within a platform range in the short - term [1] - Soybean meal may oscillate weakly in the short - term [1] - Corn futures prices are expected to oscillate within a range in the short - term, with attention on new wheat listings and weather changes [1] - **Metals** - Copper prices will continue to fluctuate around the moving average system, with overall changes being minor, and the defense line set at the upper edge of the moving average system [2] - The lithium carbonate 2507 contract may oscillate weakly, and short - selling on rallies is advisable [3][4] - Steel is starting to repair its valuation, and a short - term bullish approach on dips is recommended [5] - Coking coal and coke may rebound from oversold lows due to news disturbances [6] - Iron ore 2509 will oscillate in the short - term, and traders are advised to be cautious [7] - **Energy and Chemicals** - WTI crude oil will mainly oscillate around $60 - $65 per barrel [8] - Rubber will be weak overall, with attention on downstream rubber processing plant operating rates [9] - PVC futures prices will oscillate at low levels due to weak fundamentals [10] - Soda ash futures will continue to oscillate within the bottom - range in the short - term [11] 3. Summary by Commodity Vegetable Oils and Grains - **Rapeseed Oil** - **Spot Price**: The price of imported Grade 3 rapeseed oil in Qinzhou is 9300 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1] - **Market Analysis**: After the Dragon Boat Festival, domestic rapeseed will be listed soon. Near - term imported rapeseed supply is abundant, while long - term supply is tight. Downstream demand is neutral, and short - to - medium - term inventory may remain high [1] - **Soybean Meal** - **Spot Price**: Spot prices in various regions have declined, such as 2770 yuan/ton in Zhangjiagang (-30) [1] - **Market Analysis**: Sino - US trade has reached a phased agreement, but long - term contradictions remain. US soybean sowing is going smoothly, and Brazil is in the peak export season. Domestic soybean supply is recovering, and the pressure on soybean meal supply is emerging. Demand is weak, and inventory accumulation is slow [1] - **Corn** - **Spot Price**: Different regions have different prices, such as 2204 yuan/ton in Northeast China and Inner Mongolia [1] - **Market Analysis**: US corn growing conditions are good, and there are concerns about long - term imports. Domestically, there is a supply shortage during the transition period between old and new grains. Wheat may replace corn in the feed sector, and weather will affect prices. Downstream demand is weak [1] Metals - **Copper** - **Spot Price**: The price of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper is 78350 - 78620 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton [2] - **Market Analysis**: US employment data and political factors affect the possible end of the interest - rate cut cycle. Domestic policies support the market. Raw material supply issues persist, and copper inventory is declining, making the market more complex [2] - **Lithium Carbonate** - **Spot Price**: Battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%) is 60800 yuan/ton, and industrial - grade (99.2%) is 59150 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day [3] - **Market Analysis**: Cost pressure is increasing, ore prices are falling, and inventory is high. Supply is still above average, and demand is divided. Overall, prices are falling, and attention should be paid to upstream production cuts [3] - **Steel** - **Spot Price**: Shanghai rebar is 3090 yuan, with a Tangshan开工率 of 83.56%, social inventory of 532.76 million tons, and steel mill inventory of 200.4 million tons [5] - **Market Analysis**: The steel fundamentals are improving, with a neutral - low valuation. Policy supports the real estate industry. Demand is down year - on - year, raw material prices are weak, and inventory is low. The market is driven by policy expectations and fundamentals [5] - **Coking Coal and Coke** - **Spot Price**: The price of Mongolian 5 coking coal is 1205 yuan/ton, and the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Rizhao Port is 1340 yuan/ton [6] - **Market Analysis**: Supply is abundant, demand is weak due to steel mill production cuts, inventory is slowly increasing, and profit is approaching the break - even point [6] - **Iron Ore** - **Spot Price**: The Platts iron ore index is 97.2, and the price of Qingdao PB (61.5) powder is 735 yuan [7] - **Market Analysis**: Supply and demand factors are mixed. Australian shipments are down, Brazilian shipments are up, and port inventory is decreasing. Domestic steel mill demand is weak, and overseas demand is divided [7] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil** - **Market Analysis**: Tensions in the Middle East and OPEC+ production decisions have led to supply concerns. OPEC has lowered future demand growth forecasts, and there are concerns about global demand [8] - **Rubber** - **Spot Price**: Different types of rubber have different prices, such as 13350 yuan/ton for domestic whole - latex [9] - **Market Analysis**: Overseas orders and domestic demand should be monitored. The trade war and oversupply are dragging down prices. Supply is abundant as domestic and Southeast Asian rubber trees are in the tapping season [9] - **PVC** - **Spot Price**: The mainstream price of East China Type 5 PVC is 4680 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period [10] - **Market Analysis**: Production capacity utilization has increased, demand is still mainly for rigid needs, and inventory has decreased. The fundamentals are still weak, and futures prices are oscillating at low levels [10] - **Soda Ash** - **Spot Price**: The national mainstream price of heavy soda ash is 1371.88 yuan/ton, down 6.25 yuan/ton [11] - **Market Analysis**: Production has increased due to new capacity. Inventory has decreased, and demand is average. The market lacks new drivers and may oscillate at the bottom in the short - term [11]

1、现货市场：钦州中粮进口三级菜油 9300 元/吨，较上一交易日跌 70 元/吨。 2、市场分析：供应方面，端午节后，国产菜籽即将陆续上市。后市，近月进口菜籽到港供 应较为充裕，远月进口菜籽到港暂较为偏紧。菜油下游需求中性。库存端，菜油库存中短 期或维持高位。 3、参考观点：菜油 2509 合约，短线于或平台区间内震荡整理。 现货信息：43 豆粕各地区节前现货报价：张家港 2800 元/吨（-70）、天津 2870 元/吨（-70）、 日照 2810 元/吨（-60）、东莞 2800 元/吨（-60）。 市场分析：（1）宏观面: 中美贸易达成阶段性协议，但长期矛盾仍存。 （2）国际大豆：关税政策和天气为价格主要驱动因素。美豆播种顺利，巴西大豆出口高峰 期。 （3）国内豆粕供需面：大豆供给逐渐恢复，油厂开机率和压榨恢复正常，豆粕供给压力逐 渐凸显。豆粕成交缩量，下游采购意愿偏弱，随着下游企业安全库存建立，下游贸易商维 持随用随采、滚动补库为主。油厂大豆库存回升至高位，豆粕库存累库速度短期较缓。 参考观点：豆粕短线或震荡偏弱。 现货信息：东北三省及内蒙重点深加工企业新玉米主流收购均价 2204 元/吨；华北黄淮 ...

Group 1: Soybean Oil - Spot market: The price of first - grade soybean oil in Zhangjiagang Yijiang is 8,200 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1] - International soybean situation: It's the U.S. soybean sowing and growing season and the South American soybean harvesting and exporting season. Brazil's soybean harvest is almost complete, and the South American new - crop harvest is likely to be abundant. The USDA May 2025 report shows the 2025/26 soybean yield forecast is 52.5 bushels/acre, up from 50.7 bushels/acre in 2024/25 [1] - Domestic industry: The medium - term de - stocking cycle of soybean oil may be ending. After the arrival of South American imported soybeans and customs clearance, the soybean oil inventory may rebound from a low level [1] - Reference view: The soybean oil 2509 contract may fluctuate and consolidate in the short term [1] Group 2: Soybean Meal - Spot information: The spot prices of 43 soybean meal in different regions are: Zhangjiagang 2,840 yuan/ton (unchanged), Tianjin 2,940 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan/ton), Rizhao 2,870 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan/ton), Dongguan 2,860 yuan/ton (down 40 yuan/ton) [2] - Market analysis: There is a phased agreement in Sino - U.S. trade, but long - term contradictions remain. Tariff policies and weather are the main drivers of international soybean prices. The supply of soybeans is gradually recovering, the oil mill operating rate is increasing, and the supply of soybean meal is expected to change from tight to loose. The high price of soybean meal boosts market transactions, and the downstream feed demand was underestimated. The soybean inventory of oil mills has returned to a high level, and the inventory accumulation speed of soybean meal is slow in the short term [2] - Reference view: Soybean meal may fluctuate within a range in the short term [2] Group 3: Corn - Spot information: The mainstream purchase prices of new corn in key deep - processing enterprises in Northeast China and Inner Mongolia are 2,195 yuan/ton; in North China and the Huang - Huai region, it's 2,412 yuan/ton. The purchase prices in Jinzhou Port and Bayuquan Port are 2,270 - 2,290 yuan/ton [3] - Market analysis: Externally, the Sino - U.S. joint statement on tariff reduction leads to an expectation of loose long - term corn imports, with limited short - term impact on domestic futures prices. The May USDA report has a negative impact on U.S. corn futures prices. Domestically, the supply pressure is relieved as the weather warms up, the planting season arrives, and the remaining grain in the producing areas is basically sold out. The downstream demand is weak, and the market sentiment causes the futures price to decline [3] - Reference view: The short - term downward momentum of the futures price weakens, and there may be a rebound demand after the decline [3] Group 4: Copper - Spot information: The price of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper is 78,130 - 78,340 yuan, down 250 yuan. The import copper ore index is - 43.56, up 0.72 [4] - Market analysis: Global tariff disputes and the U.S. tariff policy fluctuations make the market volatile. Domestic support policies give a positive market expectation. The raw material supply problem persists, and the domestic copper inventory is declining. The game between reality and expectation, and between the domestic and foreign markets makes the market more complex [4] - Reference view: Continue to pay attention to the impact of the moving - average system on copper prices, and set the overall defense line at the upper edge of the moving - average system [4] Group 5: Lithium Carbonate - Spot information: The market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%) is 61,000 yuan/ton (down 250 yuan/ton), and that of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2%) is 59,350 yuan/ton (down 250 yuan/ton). The price difference between the two is 1,650 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [5] - Market analysis: The cost of lithium carbonate production has decreased, but the profit margin has not expanded. The production is still at a high level, and the supply may increase further. The demand has improved but is still insufficient to drive the price up. The inventory has decreased overall. Pay attention to the upstream production reduction [5] - Reference view: The lithium carbonate 2507 contract may fluctuate weakly. It's advisable to go short on rallies [5][6] Group 6: Steel - Spot information: The price of Shanghai rebar is 3,170 yuan. The Tangshan operating rate is 83.56%. The social inventory is 532.76 million tons, and the steel mill inventory is 200.4 million tons [7] - Market analysis: The fundamentals of steel are gradually improving, with a weaker near - term and stronger long - term situation. The cost is dynamically changing, and the inventory level is low. The short - term market is dominated by macro - policy expectations, showing a pattern of strong supply and demand [7] - Reference view: Due to the declining demand, it's advisable to wait and see until the market stabilizes [7] Group 7: Coking Coal and Coke - Spot information: The price of main coking coal (clean coal, Meng 5) is 1,205 yuan/ton; the price of metallurgical coke (quasi - first - grade) in Rizhao Port is 1,340 yuan/ton. The port inventory of imported coking coal is 337.38 million tons, and the port inventory of coke is 246.10 million tons [8] - Market analysis: The supply is relatively loose, the demand is low, the inventory is gradually increasing, and the profit is approaching the break - even point [8] - Reference view: Coking coal and coke may fluctuate weakly at a low level [8] Group 8: Iron Ore - Spot information: The Platts iron ore index is 97.2. The price of Qingdao PB (61.5%) powder is 735 yuan, and the price of Australian iron ore powder (62% Fe) is 737 yuan [9] - Market analysis: The supply and demand factors are intertwined. The global iron ore shipment has decreased slightly, the port inventory has decreased, the domestic demand has slightly declined, and the overseas demand is differentiated. The U.S. tariff policy and environmental protection restrictions suppress the price increase [9] - Reference view: The iron ore 2509 contract may fluctuate in the short term. Traders should be cautious [9] Group 9: Crude Oil - Market analysis: The U.S. - Iran negotiation has encountered setbacks, and the OPEC+ production increase plan has uncertainties. The supply may shrink. The OPEC has lowered the global demand growth forecast, and the geopolitical situation is unstable [10] - Reference view: The WTI main contract may fluctuate between 58 - 65 dollars/barrel [10] Group 10: Rubber - Market analysis: The U.S. trade war and tariff policies suppress the rubber price. The supply is abundant as the rubber - producing areas are in the harvesting season. The global supply and demand are both loose [10] - Reference view: Pay attention to the downstream operating rate of Shanghai rubber. The rubber market is weak overall [10] Group 11: PVC - Spot information: The mainstream price of East China 5 - type PVC is 4,650 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period. The price difference between ethylene - based and calcium - carbide - based PVC is 350 yuan/ton, unchanged [11] - Market analysis: The production enterprise operating rate has decreased slightly. The demand is still mainly for rigid needs. The social inventory has decreased. The futures price is oscillating weakly at a low level [11] - Reference view: The fundamentals are still weak, and the futures price will oscillate weakly at a low level [11] Group 12: Soda Ash - Spot information: The national mainstream price of heavy soda ash is 1,402.50 yuan/ton, down 1.88 yuan/ton [12] - Market analysis: The supply has increased, the inventory has decreased, and the demand is average. The market lacks new driving forces [12] - Reference view: The futures price is expected to continue to oscillate within the bottom - range in the short term [12]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the reports Group 2: Core Views - The short - term trend of the soybean oil 2509 contract may be a sideways consolidation [1] - The short - term trend of soybean meal may be sideways with a bullish bias [2] - The short - term downward momentum of corn futures prices weakens, maintaining a weak sideways movement [3] - Copper prices have not completely shaken off the influence of moving averages, and the overall defense line is set at the upper edge of the moving average system [4] - The lithium carbonate 2507 contract may be in a weak sideways movement, and short positions can be opened on rallies [5][6] - For steel, it is advisable to wait and see currently and wait for stabilization due to declining demand [7] - Coke and coking coal are in a low - level weak sideways movement due to ample supply [8] - The iron ore 2509 contract will be in a short - term sideways movement, and traders are advised to be cautious [9] - The WTI main contract will mainly move sideways around $60 - $65 per barrel [10] - Rubber is in a weak state with overall supply exceeding demand [11][12] - PVC futures prices will move weakly at a low level with a sideways trend due to a weak fundamental situation [13] - The soda ash futures market is expected to continue the bottom - range sideways movement in the short term [14] Group 3: Summary by Commodity Soybean Oil - Spot price: Zhangjiagang Yijiang first - grade soybean oil is 8,200 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1] - Market analysis: South American new - crop soybeans are likely to have a bumper harvest. The mid - term de - stocking cycle of soybean oil in China may be ending, and the inventory may rebound after the arrival of South American imported soybeans and customs clearance [1] Soybean Meal - Spot price: 43% soybean meal prices vary by region, e.g., Zhangjiagang is 2,840 yuan/ton [2] - Market analysis: Sino - US trade has a phased agreement but long - term contradictions remain. Tariffs and weather drive soybean prices. In China, soybean supply is recovering, and the supply of soybean meal is expected to be loose. Demand was underestimated, and inventory accumulation is slow [2] Corn - Spot price: Different regions have different prices, e.g., the average purchase price in Northeast China and Inner Mongolia is 2,193 yuan/ton [3] - Market analysis: The market has a loose expectation of long - term corn imports. The 5 - month USDA report is negative for US corn prices. In China, supply pressure eases, but downstream demand is weak, and the futures price has declined due to market sentiment [3] Copper - Spot price: Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper is 78,430 - 786,590 yuan, down 5 yuan [4] - Market analysis: Global tariff tensions are easing, and domestic policies are supportive. However, raw material issues persist, and the copper market is complex due to various factors [4] Lithium Carbonate - Spot price: Battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%) is 62,000 yuan/ton (+250 yuan/ton) [5] - Market analysis: Ore prices have dropped, but lithium salt prices are falling faster. Supply is high, and demand is improving but insufficient. Inventory is decreasing overall. The 2507 contract may be in a weak sideways movement [5][6] Steel - Spot price: Shanghai rebar is 3,170 yuan, and the Tangshan start - up rate is 83.56% [7] - Market analysis: The steel fundamentals are improving, with a neutral - low valuation. Cost and inventory show a complex situation, and the market is influenced by macro - policies and shows a supply - demand dual - strong pattern [7] Coke and Coking Coal - Spot price: Main coking coal (e.g., Mongolian 5) is 1,205 yuan/ton [8] - Market analysis: Supply is ample, demand is weak, inventory is gradually accumulating, and profit is approaching the break - even point. They are in a low - level weak sideways movement [8] Iron Ore - Spot price: The Platts iron ore index is 96.45 [9] - Market analysis: Supply and demand factors are mixed. Global shipments are slightly down, port inventory has decreased, and domestic demand is complex. The 2509 contract will be in a short - term sideways movement [9] Crude Oil - Market analysis: Supply increase expectations have faded, but demand growth is slowing. OPEC+ will increase production in June. The WTI main contract will move sideways around $60 - $65 per barrel [10] Rubber - Market analysis: Global supply is ample, and demand may be inhibited by US tariffs. It is in a weak state with supply exceeding demand [11][12] PVC - Spot price: East China 5 - type PVC is 4,650 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton [13] - Market analysis: Supply has decreased slightly, demand is mainly driven by rigid needs, and inventory has decreased. Futures prices are moving weakly at a low level [13] Soda Ash - Spot price: The national mainstream price of heavy soda ash is 1,406.25 yuan/ton, unchanged [14] - Market analysis: Supply has decreased due to planned maintenance, inventory has decreased slightly, demand is average, and the market is expected to continue the bottom - range sideways movement in the short term [14]

1、现货市场：张家港益江一级豆油 8230 元/吨，较上一交易日涨 30 元/吨。 2、国际大豆：当前时间窗口下，正处美豆播种、省长与南美豆收割、出口季，目前巴西豆 收割基本完成。总体来看，南美新作丰产格局或将大概率成为事实。美国农业部 5 月 US DA 报告显示，2025/26 年度大豆单产预估为 52.5 蒲式耳/英亩，2024/25 年度预估为 50.7 蒲式 耳/英亩。 3、国内产业层面：综合供需端，豆油中期去库周期或逐渐进入尾声阶段，关注后市南美进 口大豆到港、海关检验放行后，豆油库存或低位反弹。 4、参考观点：豆油 2509 合约，短线或震荡整理。 现货信息：43 豆粕各地区现货报价：张家港 2860 元/吨（-20）、天津 2950 元/吨（-20）、 日照 2880 元/吨（-40）、东莞 2910 元/吨（-10）。 市场分析：（1）宏观面: 中美贸易达成阶段性协议，但长期矛盾仍存。 （2）国际大豆：关税政策和天气为价格主要驱动因素。 （3）国内豆粕供需面：大豆供给逐渐恢复，油厂开机率提升，豆粕供给预期由紧转为宽松。 豆粕价格走高提振市场成交，下游饲料需求被低估，油厂压车问题仍存，豆粕提货 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - **Soybean Oil**: The Y2509 contract of soybean oil may fluctuate and consolidate in the short - term. The mid - term de - stocking cycle may be ending, and the inventory may rebound after the arrival of South American imported soybeans and customs clearance [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: Soybean meal may fluctuate with a bullish bias in the short - term. The supply of soybeans is recovering, and the supply of soybean meal is expected to turn from tight to loose [2]. - **Corn**: The short - term futures price has a demand for rebound after a decline, and it is recommended to conduct band trading [3]. - **Copper**: The copper price has not completely got rid of the disturbance of the moving average, and the upper limit of the moving average system is set as the overall defense line [4]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The 2507 contract of lithium carbonate may fluctuate weakly, and it is advisable to go short at high prices [5][6]. - **Steel**: For steel, it is recommended to wait and see for now. After the price stabilizes, consider a light - position long - entry strategy. The steel fundamentals are gradually improving, with a supply - demand dual - strong pattern emerging [7]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Due to the loose supply, coking coal and coke will fluctuate weakly at a low level [8]. - **Iron Ore**: The 2509 contract of iron ore will mainly fluctuate weakly in the short - term. Traders are reminded to be cautious about investment risks [9]. - **Crude Oil**: The WTI main contract will mainly fluctuate between $55 and $65 per barrel. In the medium - to - long - term, the price may shift downward, but there is technical support at $55 per barrel [10]. - **Rubber**: Rubber will mainly fluctuate weakly as the overall supply exceeds demand. Attention should be paid to the downstream start - up situation of Shanghai - traded rubber [11][12]. - **PVC**: The fundamentals of PVC remain weak, and the futures price will fluctuate at a low level [13]. - **Soda Ash**: The futures market of soda ash is expected to continue wide - range fluctuations in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the equipment maintenance dynamics and unexpected events [14]. 3. Summary by Commodity Soybean Oil - **Spot Market**: The price of first - grade soybean oil in Zhangjiagang Yijiang is 8,200 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1]. - **International Soybean**: It is the season for U.S. soybean sowing and growth and South American soybean harvesting and exporting. Brazil's soybean harvest is almost completed, and the new South American crop is likely to have a bumper harvest. The U.S. Department of Agriculture's May report shows that the estimated soybean yield per acre in the 2025/26 season is 52.5 bushels, compared with 50.7 bushels in the 2024/25 season [1]. - **Domestic Industry**: The mid - term de - stocking cycle of soybean oil may be ending. The inventory may rebound after the arrival of South American imported soybeans and customs clearance [1]. Soybean Meal - **Spot Information**: The spot prices of 43 - grade soybean meal in Zhangjiagang, Tianjin, Rizhao, and Dongguan are 2,860 yuan/ton (-20), 2,950 yuan/ton (-20), 2,880 yuan/ton (-40), and 2,910 yuan/ton (-10) respectively [2]. - **Market Analysis**: Macroscopically, the China - U.S. trade has reached a phased agreement, but long - term contradictions remain. Tariff policies and weather are the main drivers of international soybean prices. The supply of soybeans is gradually recovering, and the supply of soybean meal is expected to turn from tight to loose. The high price of soybean meal stimulates market transactions, and the downstream feed demand was underestimated. The soybean inventory of oil mills has returned to a high level, and the inventory accumulation speed of soybean meal is relatively slow in the short term [2]. Corn - **Spot Information**: The mainstream purchase prices of new corn in key deep - processing enterprises in the three northeastern provinces and Inner Mongolia, and in key enterprises in North China and the Huanghuai region are 2,195 yuan/ton and 2,414 yuan/ton respectively. The purchase prices in Jinzhou Port and Bayuquan Port are 2,260 - 2,270 yuan/ton [3]. - **Market Analysis**: Externally, the China - U.S. joint statement on tariff reduction has led to an expectation of looser long - term corn imports, which affects short - term price sentiment, but the negative impact on domestic futures prices is limited. The May USDA report has raised the U.S. corn production and ending inventory, which is negative for U.S. corn futures prices. Domestically, with the warming weather and the planting season approaching, the remaining grain at the grass - roots level in the producing areas has basically been sold out, and the supply pressure has been relieved. However, the downstream procurement is cautious, and the demand is weak [3]. Copper - **Spot Information**: The price of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper is 77,930 - 78,140 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton. The import copper ore index is - 44.28, down 1.23 [4]. - **Market Analysis**: The global tariff confrontation is gradually easing, which is beneficial to the commodity market. China's policy support has boosted market sentiment. However, the raw material supply is still unstable, and the rapid decline in domestic copper inventory has intensified the game between reality and expectation, and between domestic and foreign markets [4]. Lithium Carbonate - **Spot Information**: The market prices of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%) and industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2%) are 61,950 (-1,050) yuan/ton and 60,350 (-500) yuan/ton respectively. The price difference between them is 1,600 (-450) yuan/ton [5]. - **Market Analysis**: The cost of various ores has dropped significantly, but the profit margin of lithium carbonate has not been effectively expanded due to the rapid decline in prices. The weekly operating rate of the lithium carbonate industry has slightly decreased, but the overall output is still high. As the temperature rises, the production capacity of salt - lake lithium extraction will be further released, and the low - cost supply may suppress the market price. The demand for cathode materials is stable, and the power battery market is growing steadily, but the demand is still not strong enough to drive the price up. The overall inventory decreased slightly in the week ending May 23 [5]. Steel - **Spot Information**: The price of Shanghai rebar is 3,170 yuan/ton. The operating rate in Tangshan is 83.56%. The social inventory is 532.76 million tons, and the inventory in steel mills is 200.4 million tons [7]. - **Market Analysis**: The fundamentals of steel are gradually improving, and the contango structure has weakened. The current valuation of steel is moderately low. The policy supports the real - estate industry, but the apparent demand for steel has decreased year - on - year. The raw material prices fluctuated weakly this week, and the cost center of steel is dynamically adjusted. The social and steel - mill inventories of steel are showing different trends, and the overall inventory level is low [7]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Spot Information**: The price of Mongolian No. 5 coking coal is 1,205 yuan/ton, and the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Rizhao Port is 1,340 yuan/ton. The port inventory of imported coking coal is 337.38 million tons, and the port inventory of coke is 246.10 million tons [8]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply is relatively loose. The domestic production capacity is steadily recovering, and the capacity utilization rate of coking plants is stable. The import of Mongolian coal remains at a high level despite some disturbances. The demand is weak as steel mills are reducing production, and the iron - water production is expected to decline. Independent coking enterprises maintain a low - inventory strategy for raw materials, and the overall inventory is slightly increasing. The average profit per ton of coke is stable and approaching the break - even point [8]. Iron Ore - **Spot Information**: The Platts iron ore index is 98.95. The price of Qingdao PB (61.5%) powder is 750 yuan/ton, and the price of Australian iron ore powder (62% Fe) is 754 yuan/ton [9]. - **Market Analysis**: The iron ore market is facing both bullish and bearish factors. The Australian iron ore shipments have decreased after the end of the quarterly shipment rush, while the Brazilian shipments are continuously increasing. The global total shipments have slightly decreased. The port inventory has decreased by 112.39 million tons to 1.48 billion tons, indicating a short - term reduction in the arrival pressure. The domestic steel - mill iron - water production has increased to 240.22 million tons per day, and the daily consumption of imported ore has increased. However, steel mills are still cautious in purchasing raw materials. Overseas demand is divided, and the U.S. tariff policy has increased price volatility [9]. Crude Oil - **Market Analysis**: The resurgence of twists in the U.S. - Iran negotiations has reduced the expectation of supply increase, which has boosted oil prices. However, the downgrade of the U.S. sovereign credit rating has led to the overall volatile operation of crude oil. In the medium - to - long - term, the price is restricted. OPEC+ will increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in June, and the market expects an oversupply. OPEC has significantly lowered the global demand growth rate for the next two years, and geopolitical conflicts have increased market uncertainty [10]. Rubber - **Market Analysis**: The improvement of the China - U.S. trade situation has limited impact on the rubber market. The domestic natural rubber has entered the tapping season, and the supply in Southeast Asia is also increasing. The global supply and demand of rubber are both loose. The market's speculation on the trade war and the potential U.S. automobile tariff may suppress the global rubber demand [11][12]. PVC - **Spot Information**: The mainstream price of East China 5 - type PVC is 4,760 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price of ethylene - based PVC is 5,000 yuan/ton. The price difference between them is 240 yuan/ton, all remaining unchanged from the previous period [13]. - **Market Analysis**: The operating rate of PVC production enterprises decreased last week. The demand from domestic downstream product enterprises has not improved significantly, and the transactions are mainly based on rigid demand. As of May 22, the PVC social inventory has decreased [13]. Soda Ash - **Spot Information**: The national mainstream price of heavy soda ash is 1,408.13 yuan/ton, down 8.12 yuan/ton. The mainstream prices in East China, North China, and Central China are 1,450 yuan/ton, 1,500 yuan/ton, and 1,400 yuan/ton respectively, remaining unchanged [14]. - **Market Analysis**: The overall operating rate of soda ash decreased last week, and the production volume also decreased. The manufacturer's inventory decreased, and the social inventory increased slightly. The demand from the middle and lower reaches is average, with a preference for low - priced products [14].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings were provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - **Soybean Oil (2509 Contract)**: Short - term may fluctuate and consolidate [1] - **Soybean Meal**: Short - term may fluctuate with a slight upward trend [2] - **Corn**: After a short - term price drop, there is a demand for a rebound; adopt a band - trading strategy [3] - **Copper**: The copper price has not completely shaken off the influence of the moving average; set the upper limit of the moving average system as the overall defense line [4] - **Lithium Carbonate (2507 Contract)**: May fluctuate weakly; consider shorting on rallies [6][7] - **Rebar**: The black negative feedback is gradually reflected in the price; adopt a strategy of buying on dips at low levels [8] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Supply is abundant; prices may fluctuate weakly at low levels [9] - **Iron Ore (2509)**: Short - term may fluctuate weakly; traders are advised to be cautious [10] - **Crude Oil (WTI Main Contract)**: May fluctuate between $55 and $65 per barrel [11] - **Rubber**: Overall supply exceeds demand; pay attention to the correction market under the pressure level [12][13] - **PVC**: The fundamentals remain weak; the futures price may fluctuate at low levels [14] - **Soda Ash**: The futures price is expected to continue to fluctuate widely in the short term [15] 3. Summaries by Commodity Soybean Oil - **Spot Market**: The price of first - grade soybean oil in Zhangjiagang Yijiang is 8,270 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1] - **International Soybeans**: It is the sowing and growing season for US soybeans and the harvesting and exporting season for South American soybeans. The South American new crop is likely to have a bumper harvest. The USDA May report shows that the estimated soybean yield per acre in the 2025/26 season is 52.5 bushels, compared with 50.7 bushels in the 2024/25 season [1] - **Domestic Industry**: The medium - term de - stocking cycle of soybean oil may be coming to an end. Pay attention to the potential increase in soybean oil inventory after the arrival of South American imported soybeans and customs clearance [1] Soybean Meal - **Spot Information**: The spot prices of 43% soybean meal in different regions are: Zhangjiagang 2,880 yuan/ton (up 20), Tianjin 2,970 yuan/ton (up 20), Rizhao 2,920 yuan/ton (up 40), and Dongguan 2,920 yuan/ton (up 20) [2] - **Market Analysis**: The Sino - US trade has reached a phased agreement, but long - term contradictions remain. The price of US soybeans has risen due to weather speculation caused by rainfall in the production areas. The supply of soybeans is gradually recovering, the oil refinery operating rate is increasing, and the supply of soybean meal is expected to change from tight to loose. Downstream enterprises will adopt a just - in - time procurement and rolling replenishment strategy [2] Corn - **Spot Information**: The mainstream purchase prices of new corn in different regions are provided, such as 2,195 yuan/ton in key deep - processing enterprises in the three northeastern provinces and Inner Mongolia, and 2,414 yuan/ton in key enterprises in North China and the Huang - Huai region [3] - **Market Analysis**: From the external market, there is an expectation of looser corn imports in the medium - to - long - term due to the Sino - US joint statement, but the negative impact on the domestic futures price is relatively limited. The May USDA report has raised the US production and ending inventory, which is negative for the US corn futures price. Domestically, the supply pressure has eased, but the downstream demand is weak [3] Copper - **Spot Information**: The price of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper is 77,930 - 78,140 yuan, down 50. The import copper ore index is - 44.28, down 1.23 [4] - **Market Analysis**: The global tariff confrontation is gradually easing, which is beneficial to the commodity market. Domestic policies are supportive, but raw material supply issues persist, and the copper market is in a complex state of game between reality and expectation, and between the domestic and foreign markets [4] Lithium Carbonate - **Spot Information**: The market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%) is 63,000 yuan/ton, and that of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2%) is 60,850 yuan/ton, with a price difference of 2,150 yuan/ton, both remaining unchanged from the previous trading day [5] - **Market Analysis**: The cost of lithium carbonate production has decreased, but the profit margin has not expanded due to the rapid decline in lithium salt prices. The supply is high, and the demand improvement is insufficient. The inventory is accumulating [6] Rebar - **Spot Information**: The price of Shanghai rebar is 3,170. The Tangshan operating rate is 83.56%. The social inventory is 532.76 million tons, and the rebar mill inventory is 200.4 million tons [8] - **Market Analysis**: The fundamentals of steel are gradually improving. The cost of steel is dynamically changing, and the inventory is decreasing. The short - term market is dominated by macro - policy expectations, showing a pattern of strong supply and demand [8] Coking Coal and Coke - **Spot Information**: The price of main coking coal (Meng 5) is 1,205 yuan/ton, and the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port is 1,340 yuan/ton. The port inventory of imported coking coal is 337.38 million tons, and the port inventory of coke is 246.10 million tons [9] - **Market Analysis**: The supply is abundant, the demand is weak, the inventory is slightly increasing, and the profit is approaching the break - even point [9] Iron Ore - **Spot Information**: The Iron Ore Price Index (Platts) is 99.7. The price of Qingdao PB (61.5%) powder is 757, and the price of Australian iron ore fines (62% Fe) is 759 [10] - **Market Analysis**: The supply and demand factors are mixed. The global shipment volume has decreased slightly, the port inventory has decreased, the domestic demand has increased slightly but the procurement is still cautious, and the overseas demand is differentiated. The US tariff policy has increased price volatility [10] Crude Oil - **Market Analysis**: The resurgence of twists in the US - Iran negotiation has boosted oil prices, but the overall oil price is still fluctuating. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply is expected to exceed demand, and the price center may move down, but there is technical support at $55 per barrel for the WTI main contract [11] Rubber - **Spot Information**: Not provided comprehensively. - **Market Analysis**: The Sino - US trade situation and the supply situation in domestic and Southeast Asian production areas lead to an overall supply - surplus situation. The potential impact of US auto tariffs on demand is a concern [12][13] PVC - **Spot Information**: The mainstream price of East China 5 - type PVC is 4,760 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton month - on - month. The mainstream price of ethylene - based PVC is 5,000 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month [14] - **Market Analysis**: The production enterprise operating rate has decreased slightly, the demand from downstream enterprises has not improved significantly, and the inventory has decreased [14] Soda Ash - **Spot Information**: The national mainstream price of heavy soda ash is 1,416.25 yuan/ton, down 5.94 yuan/ton month - on - month [15] - **Market Analysis**: The supply has decreased slightly due to plant maintenance, the inventory has decreased, and the demand is average. The market is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [15]