Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the reports 2. Core Views - **Soybean and Related Products**: Soybean oil 2509 contract may fluctuate within a range in the short - term; soybean meal may oscillate weakly; after the holiday, the Dalian Commodity Exchange corn price is expected to follow the foreign market, but domestic factors will dominate later [1] - **Copper**: The monthly K - line of copper price shows a balance between yin and yang, and attention should be paid to the suppression effect of the moving average system [2] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The 2507 contract of lithium carbonate may oscillate weakly, and short - selling on rallies is advisable [3][4] - **Steel**: After the macro - negative factors are digested, a long - position strategy can be considered for the far - month contracts at low levels after May [5] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Due to the loose supply, coking coal and coke may have a weak rebound at low levels, with limited upside space [6] - **Iron Ore**: The 2505 contract of iron ore may decline with oscillations in the short - term [7] - **Crude Oil**: The WTI main contract has support at $55 per barrel, and the domestic market may offset the decline during the holiday, with neutral fluctuations [8] - **Rubber**: Attention should be paid to the downstream operation rate of Shanghai rubber, and the main contract has support at around 14,000 yuan per ton [9] - **PVC**: The futures price may oscillate at a low level due to weak demand [10] - **Soda Ash**: After the holiday, the futures market is expected to oscillate widely in the short - term [11] 3. Summary by Commodity Soybean and Related Products - **Market Conditions**: As of May 2, the US soybean and soybean oil futures rose. South American new - crop soybeans are likely to have a bumper harvest. The mid - term de - stocking cycle of domestic soybean oil may end, and the inventory may rebound. The supply of domestic soybean meal is expected to ease, and the downstream will start restocking [1] - **Spot Information**: 43% soybean meal prices in Tianjin, Rizhao, and Dongguan are 3300 yuan/ton, 3530 yuan/ton, and 3380 yuan/ton respectively; new - corn purchase prices in different regions are provided [1] Copper - **Market Conditions**: The global market is affected by tariffs, and the overseas capital market is highly volatile. The Fed's actions are uncertain. Domestically, policies are boosting market sentiment. The raw material supply of copper still has problems, and the price is in a resonance state [2] - **Spot Information**: The price of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper is 77840 - 78060 yuan, down 85 yuan, with a premium of 200 - 260 yuan [2] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Conditions**: The cost of lithium carbonate is decreasing as the price of spodumene concentrate drops. Supply is increasing with a slowdown in growth rate, and the resumption of production at salt lakes may impact prices. Demand has improved but lacks upward momentum [3] - **Inventory**: Weekly inventory has been accumulating. As of April 24, the total inventory was 131,864 tons, with increases in smelter and downstream inventories [4] - **Spot Information**: The market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%) is 67,900 yuan/ton, and that of industrial - grade (99.2%) is 662,000 yuan/ton [3] Steel - **Market Conditions**: The fundamentals of steel are improving, with a weakening contango structure and a neutral - low valuation. Policy supports the real estate industry. The cost of steel is dynamic, and inventories are decreasing [5] - **Spot Information**: Shanghai rebar price is 3160 yuan, with social and mill inventories of 532.76 million tons and 200.4 million tons respectively [5] Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Conditions**: Supply is relatively loose, with stable domestic production and high - level Mongolian coal imports. Demand is weak due to steel mill production cuts. Inventories are slightly increasing, and profit is approaching the break - even point [6] - **Spot Information**: The price of main coking coal and metallurgical coke at different ports is provided, along with port inventories [6] Iron Ore - **Market Conditions**: Supply and demand factors are mixed. Australian shipments have decreased, while Brazilian shipments are rising. Port inventories have decreased, and domestic steel mill demand has increased, but procurement is still cautious. Trade - war concerns limit price increases [7] - **Spot Information**: Iron ore indexes and prices of different types of iron ore are provided [7] Crude Oil - **Market Conditions**: OPEC+ will increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in June, and the market expects oversupply. The WTI main contract has support at $55 per barrel [8] - **Spot Information**: Not provided Rubber - **Market Conditions**: The impact of US tariffs on rubber prices has been mostly priced in. The supply is increasing as domestic and Southeast Asian rubber trees start to be tapped. Demand may be affected by trade - war factors [8] - **Spot Information**: Not provided PVC - **Market Conditions**: The production rate of PVC has increased, but downstream demand has not improved significantly. Social inventories have decreased [10] - **Spot Information**: The prices of different types of PVC and the price difference are provided [10] Soda Ash - **Market Conditions**: The production of soda ash is stable, and inventories are decreasing. Demand is average, with a preference for low - price products. The market sentiment has improved, but the fundamental driving force is weak [11] - **Spot Information**: The mainstream prices of heavy soda ash in different regions are provided [11]

1、现货市场：日照嘉吉一级豆油 8140 元/吨，较上一交易日持平。 2、宏观：特朗普时期的"对等关税"政策通过重塑全球贸易流、产业链定价权及市场风险 偏好，对期货市场形成了系统性冲击。 3、市场分析：当前时间窗口下，正处美豆播种与南美豆收割、出口季，目前巴西豆收割基 本完成。总体来看，南美新作丰产格局或将大概率成为事实。后市豆油中期新增供给与下 游需求或维持中性，豆油中期库存或维持整理。 4、参考观点：豆油 2509 合约，短线或区间震荡整理。 现货信息：43 豆粕各地区现货报价：张家港 3320 元/吨（-130）、天津 3400 元/吨（-180）、 日照 3580 元/吨（-70）、东莞 3620 元/吨（-70）。 市场分析：（1）宏观面: 中美贸易关税问题暂未解决，影响中美大豆贸易。 （2）国际大豆：美豆开启播种，进度超过预期。巴西大豆即将进入出口高峰期。 （3）国内豆粕供需面：巴西大豆逐渐到港，油厂开机率回升，豆粕供给预期将逐渐转为宽 松。现货市场五一节前备货与油厂开工出现错配，豆粕库存降至低点。 参考观点：豆粕短线或偏弱运行。 现货信息：东北三省及内蒙重点深加工企业新玉米主流收购均价 2128 ...

Group 1: Investment Ratings - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided reports. Group 2: Core Views - The soybean oil 2509 contract may fluctuate within a range in the short - term [1]. - The soybean meal may oscillate in the short - term [1]. - The corn futures price will fluctuate within a range in the short - term, and investors are advised to operate cautiously as the May Day holiday approaches [1]. - The copper price has rebounded to a key price zone, and investors should pay attention to risk avoidance due to the upcoming May Day holiday [2]. - The lithium carbonate 2507 contract may oscillate weakly, and short - selling on rallies can be considered [3][4]. - After the macro - negative factors are digested, a bullish approach can be considered for the far - month contracts at low levels after May [5]. - The coking coal and coke may rebound weakly at low levels with limited upside space [6][7]. - The iron ore 2505 will mainly decline with oscillations in the short - term, and traders are reminded to be cautious about investment risks [8]. - The WTI crude oil may have a downward price center in the medium - to - long - term, and attention should be paid to the pressure at 65 US dollars per barrel for the WTI main contract [9]. - Attention should be paid to the downstream operating rate of Shanghai rubber, and there is support around 14,000 yuan per ton for the main contract [10]. - The PVC futures price may oscillate at a low level due to the weak demand [11]. - The soda ash futures may have a wide - range oscillation in the short - term [12]. Group 3: Summaries by Commodity Soybean Oil - **Spot Market**: The price of Grade 1 soybean oil at Rizhao Cargill is 8,140 yuan per ton, down 120 yuan per ton from the previous trading day [1]. - **Market Analysis**: It is in the period of US soybean sowing and South American soybean harvesting and exporting. South American new - crop soybeans are likely to have a bumper harvest. The medium - term supply and demand of soybean oil may remain neutral, and the inventory may be stable [1]. Soybean Meal - **Spot Market**: The spot prices of 43% soybean meal in Zhangjiagang, Tianjin, Rizhao, and Dongguan are 3,450 yuan/ton (- 200), 3,580 yuan/ton (- 170), 3,650 yuan/ton (- 50), and 3,690 yuan/ton (- 10) respectively [1]. - **Market Analysis**: The Sino - US trade tariff issue remains unresolved. US soybean sowing progress exceeds expectations, and Brazilian soybeans are about to enter the export peak. Brazilian soybeans are arriving in China, and the supply is expected to be loose. The inventory has dropped to a low point due to the mismatch between pre - May Day stocking and oil mill operations [1]. Corn - **Spot Market**: The mainstream purchase prices of new corn in Northeast China, North China, and Huanghuai regions are 2,128 yuan/ton, 2,333 yuan/ton respectively. The purchase prices at Jinzhou Port and Bayuquan Port are 2,200 - 2,230 yuan/ton and 2,200 - 2,220 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - **Market Analysis**: The impact of the US tariff event on the outer market is weakening. The USDA report has lowered the US corn production and ending inventory, and the weakening US dollar index supports the upward trend of US corn. In China, the supply pressure has eased, but the downstream demand is weak, which restricts the rise of corn futures prices [1]. Copper - **Spot Market**: The price of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper is 77,440 - 77,690 yuan, down 580 yuan, with a premium of 150 - 210 yuan. The imported copper ore index is - 42.52, down 7.81 [1]. - **Market Analysis**: The global market is still affected by "irrational" tariffs, and the Fed's actions are uncertain. Domestically, policies are boosting market sentiment. The raw material impact is intensifying, and the copper price is at a stage of resonance [2]. Lithium Carbonate - **Spot Market**: The market prices of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%) and industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2%) are 69,400 (- 200) yuan/ton and 67,900 (- 200) yuan/ton respectively, with a price difference of 1,500 yuan/ton [3]. - **Market Analysis**: The cost of lithium spodumene concentrate is declining. The supply is increasing but at a slower pace, and the low - cost lithium salt from salt lakes may enter the market. The demand has improved but is still insufficient to drive the price up. The inventory has been accumulating [3]. Steel - **Spot Market**: The price of Shanghai rebar is 3,160 yuan, the Tangshan operating rate is 83.56%, the social inventory is 5.3276 million tons, and the steel mill inventory is 2.004 million tons [5]. - **Market Analysis**: The fundamentals of steel are improving, and the contango structure is weakening. The cost is dynamic, and the inventory is decreasing. The short - term market is dominated by macro - policy expectations, showing a pattern of strong supply and demand [5]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Spot Market**: The price of Mongolian No. 5 coking coal is 1,205 yuan/ton, and the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port is 1,340 yuan/ton. The port inventory of imported coking coal is 3.3738 million tons, and the port inventory of coke is 2.461 million tons [6]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply is loose, the demand from steel mills is weak, the inventory of independent coking enterprises is low, and the profit per ton of coke is approaching the break - even point [6][7]. Iron Ore - **Spot Market**: The Platts iron ore index is 99.2, the price of Qingdao PB (61.5%) powder is 763 yuan, and the price of Australian iron ore powder (62% Fe) is 762 yuan [8]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply is mixed, with Australian shipments decreasing and Brazilian shipments increasing. The port inventory has decreased, and the demand from domestic steel mills has increased but the procurement is still cautious. Overseas demand is differentiated, and the US tariff policy restricts the upward space [8]. Crude Oil - **Market Analysis**: The market sentiment has improved, and the US inventory has decreased. OPEC+ has announced compensation production cuts, but the impact of the US "reciprocal tariff" still exists. OPEC has lowered the global demand growth forecast, and the second - quarter demand may be affected by the trade war [9]. Rubber - **Market Analysis**: The US "reciprocal tariff" has affected China's tire and automobile exports. The domestic and Southeast Asian rubber supply is abundant, and the demand may be suppressed by the US tariff on automobiles [10]. PVC - **Spot Market**: The mainstream price of East China Type 5 PVC is 4,780 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price of ethylene - based PVC is 5,050 yuan/ton, both unchanged from the previous period [11]. - **Market Analysis**: The PVC production enterprise operating rate has increased. The demand from downstream enterprises is still weak, and the social inventory has decreased. The futures price may oscillate at a low level [11]. Soda Ash - **Spot Market**: The national mainstream price of heavy soda ash is 1,418.44 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period [12]. - **Market Analysis**: The operating rate of soda ash production is relatively stable, the output has little fluctuation, the inventory is decreasing, and the demand is average. The market sentiment has improved, but the fundamental driving force is still weak [12].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided reports. Group 2: Core Views - The soybean oil 2509 contract may fluctuate within a range in the short - term [1] - The soybean meal may fluctuate in the short - term [1] - The short - term corn futures price will fluctuate within a range, and investors are advised to operate cautiously as the May Day holiday approaches [1] - The copper price has rebounded to a key price range. Tactical defense should focus on the suppression of the 60 - day moving average and the monthly K - line pattern [2] - The lithium carbonate 2507 contract may oscillate weakly, and short - selling can be considered on rallies [3][4] - After the macro - negative factors are digested, a long - position approach can be considered for the far - month contracts at low levels after May [5] - The coking coal and coke will have a weak rebound at low levels with limited upside space [7] - The iron ore 2505 will oscillate in the short - term, and traders are reminded to be cautious about investment risks [8] - The WTI crude oil will see its price center shift down in the medium - to - long - term. Attention should be paid to the pressure at $65 per barrel for the WTI main contract [9] - For Shanghai rubber, attention should be paid to the downstream operating rate, and there is support around 14,000 yuan per ton for the main contract [10] - The PVC futures price may oscillate at a low level due to weak demand [11] - The soda ash futures market will likely have a wide - range oscillation in the short - term [12] Group 3: Summary by Commodity Soybean Oil - **Spot Information**: The price of Grade 1 soybean oil at Rizhao Cargill is 8,260 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1] - **Market Analysis**: It is in the period of US soybean sowing and South American soybean harvesting and exporting. South American new - crop harvest is likely to be abundant. Mid - term supply and demand of soybean oil may remain neutral, and mid - term inventory may be stable [1] Soybean Meal - **Spot Information**: The spot prices of 43% soybean meal in Zhangjiagang, Tianjin, and Rizhao are 3,800 yuan/ton (- 150), 4,050 yuan/ton (- 250), and 3,830 yuan/ton (- 170) respectively [1] - **Market Analysis**: Sino - US trade tariff issues remain unresolved. US soybean sowing progress exceeds expectations, and Brazilian soybean harvesting is nearly finished. Brazilian soybeans are arriving in China, and the supply of soybean meal is expected to become looser. The inventory has reached a low point due to the mismatch between pre - May Day stocking and oil refinery operations [1] Corn - **Spot Information**: The average purchase price of new corn in key deep - processing enterprises in Northeast China and Inner Mongolia is 2,128 yuan/ton; in North China and the Huang - Huai region, it is 2,333 yuan/ton. The purchase prices at Jinzhou Port and Bayuquan Port are 2,200 - 2,230 yuan/ton and 2,200 - 2,220 yuan/ton respectively [1] - **Market Analysis**: The impact of the US tariff event on the outer market has weakened. The USDA report has lowered US corn production and ending stocks. The US dollar index has declined, supporting the US corn futures. In the domestic market, farmers' grain sales are nearly 90% completed, and the import of corn and substitute grains has decreased significantly. However, the downstream demand is weak due to slow pig production capacity reduction, feed inventory backlog, and the supply pressure of new wheat [1] Copper - **Spot Information**: The price of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper is 78,0360 - 78,230 yuan, up 30 yuan. The import copper ore index is - 42.52, down 7.81 [1] - **Market Analysis**: The global market is still in the stage of "irrational" tariff shock, and the high - volatility window of overseas capital markets has not ended. The Fed's actions are uncertain. Domestically, policies are continuously strengthening market expectations. The raw material shock is intensifying, and the copper price is in a stage of resonance [2] Lithium Carbonate - **Spot Information**: The market prices of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%) and industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2%) are 69,600 yuan/ton and 68,100 yuan/ton respectively, with a price difference of 1,500 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous trading day [3] - **Market Analysis**: The forward price of spodumene concentrate is continuously decreasing. The weekly operating rate is increasing but at a slower pace, and the salt - lake production has resumed. The demand has improved but is not enough to drive the price up. The inventory has been accumulating [3] Steel - **Spot Information**: The price of Shanghai rebar is 3,160 yuan, the Tangshan operating rate is 83.56%, the social inventory is 532.76 million tons, and the steel mill inventory is 200.4 million tons [5] - **Market Analysis**: The fundamentals of the steel industry are gradually improving. The cost of steel is dynamically changing, and the inventory is decreasing. The short - term market is dominated by macro - policy expectations, showing a pattern of strong supply and demand [5] Coking Coal and Coke - **Spot Information**: The price of Mongolian No. 5 coking coal is 1,205 yuan/ton, the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port is 1,340 yuan/ton. The port inventory of imported coking coal is 337.38 million tons, and the port inventory of coke is 246.10 million tons [6] - **Market Analysis**: The supply is relatively loose, the demand is weak as steel mills may reduce production, the inventory of independent coking enterprises is slightly increasing, and the average profit per ton of coke is approaching the break - even point [7] Iron Ore - **Spot Information**: The Platts iron ore index is 100.45, the price of Qingdao PB (61.5%) powder is 767 yuan, and the price of Australian iron ore powder (62% Fe) is 768 yuan [8] - **Market Analysis**: The supply is mixed with Australian shipments decreasing and Brazilian shipments increasing. The port inventory has decreased. The domestic demand has increased, but steel mills' procurement is cautious. Overseas demand is differentiated, and the US tariff policy restricts the upward space of iron ore prices [8] Crude Oil - **Market Analysis**: The market sentiment has improved, and the US inventory has decreased. OPEC + has announced compensation production cuts. However, the US "reciprocal tariff" still impacts the market. In the medium - to - long - term, the price center of crude oil will shift down [9] Rubber - **Market Analysis**: The US "reciprocal tariff" has affected China's tire and automobile exports. The domestic rubber supply is increasing as the domestic production area starts harvesting, and the global supply and demand are both loose [10] PVC - **Spot Information**: The mainstream price of East China Type 5 PVC is 4,780 yuan/ton, the mainstream price of ethylene - based PVC is 5,050 yuan/ton, and the price difference is 270 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged [11] - **Market Analysis**: The operating rate of PVC production enterprises has increased. The demand from downstream enterprises has not improved significantly, and the social inventory has decreased. The futures price may oscillate at a low level [11] Soda Ash - **Spot Information**: The national mainstream price of heavy soda ash is 1,418.44 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged. The mainstream prices in East China, North China, and Central China are 1,450 yuan/ton, 1,500 yuan/ton, and 1,400 yuan/ton respectively, remaining unchanged [12] - **Market Analysis**: The operating rate of soda ash production is relatively stable, the inventory is decreasing, the demand is average, and the market sentiment has improved, but the fundamental drive is weak. The futures price will likely have a wide - range oscillation in the short - term [12]

现货信息：电池级碳酸锂（99.5%）市场价报 69600（+100）元/吨，工业级碳酸锂（99.2%） 市场价报 68100 元/吨，电碳与工碳价差为 1500（+100）元/吨。 市场分析：从基本面来看，成本方面锂辉石精矿远期价格持续下调；供给方面，周开工率 持续增长，但增速放缓，值得注意的是盐湖端已经开始复产，低成本锂盐若大批流入市场 或对价格有所冲击。需求方面，3 月终端消费环比转好，动力电池保持稳定增长，正极材料 排产稳健，需求整体有所好转，但仍不足以提供向上驱动。 库存方面：周库存持续累库。截至 4 月 18 日，周度库存为 131605（+585）实物吨，其中冶 炼厂库存 52130（+398）实物吨，下游库存 41734（+787）实物吨，其他环节库存 37741（-600） 实物吨；3 月月度库存为 90070 实物吨，同比增长 47%，环比增长 17%；其中下游库存 39293 （+8582）实物吨，冶炼厂库存 50777（+4365）实物吨。总体来看，在成本支撑松动以及宏 观扰动下，现货与期货价格同步下跌，后续重点关注 6.5 万/吨支撑。 参考观点：碳酸锂 2507 合约或偏弱震荡，可逢 ...

Report Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. Core Views - **Soybean Oil**: The Y2509 contract of soybean oil may experience short - term range - bound consolidation [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: Soybean meal may show a short - term oscillatory upward trend [1]. - **Corn**: In the short term, corn futures prices will be range - bound, and a range - trading strategy is recommended [1]. - **Copper**: Tactical defense should focus on the suppression of the 60 - day moving average and the shape of the monthly K - line [2]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The Y2507 contract of lithium carbonate may be weakly oscillatory, and short - selling on rallies is advisable [3][4]. - **Steel**: After the macro - negative factors are digested, a long - position strategy at low prices for far - month contracts after May is recommended [5]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Due to ample supply, coking coal and coke will experience a weak oscillatory rebound at low levels, with limited upside [6][7]. - **Iron Ore**: The I2505 contract of iron ore will be oscillatory in the short term, and traders are advised to be cautious [8]. - **Crude Oil**: In the medium - to - long term, the price center of crude oil will move downward. Attention should be paid to the resistance at $65 per barrel for the WTI main contract [9]. - **Rubber**: Attention should be paid to the downstream operating rate of Shanghai rubber, and there is support around 14,000 yuan per ton for the main contract [10]. - **PVC**: Due to weak demand, PVC futures prices may oscillate at low levels [11]. - **Soda Ash**: The soda ash futures market is expected to be weakly oscillatory in the short term [12]. Market Analysis by Product Soybean Oil - **Spot Market**: The price of Grade 1 soybean oil at Rizhao Cargill is 8,160 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1]. - **Market Situation**: Currently, it is the U.S. soybean sowing season and the South American soybean harvesting and exporting season. The South American new crop is likely to have a bumper harvest. The medium - term supply and demand of soybean oil may remain neutral, and the medium - term inventory may be stable [1]. Soybean Meal - **Spot Market**: The spot prices of 43% soybean meal in Zhangjiagang, Tianjin, Rizhao, and Dongguan are 3,700 yuan/ton, 4,080 yuan/ton, 3,840 yuan/ton, and 3,620 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - **Market Situation**: The Sino - U.S. trade tariff issue remains unresolved. U.S. soybean sowing progress exceeds expectations, and the Brazilian soybean harvest is nearing completion. As Brazilian soybeans arrive in China, the supply of soybean meal is expected to become more abundant. The pre - May Day inventory build - up in the spot market and the oil mill's production are misaligned, leading to a low inventory of soybean meal [1]. Corn - **Spot Market**: The average purchase price of new corn in key deep - processing enterprises in the three northeastern provinces and Inner Mongolia is 2,105 yuan/ton; in North China and the Huang - Huai region, it is 2,313 yuan/ton. The purchase prices at Jinzhou Port and Bayuquan Port are in the range of 2,160 - 2,190 yuan/ton [1]. - **Market Situation**: The impact of U.S. tariff events on the U.S. corn market is weakening. The USDA report in April lowered the U.S. corn production and ending stocks, and the weakening U.S. dollar index supports the U.S. corn futures. In China, farmers have sold most of their corn, and the import of corn and substitute grains has decreased significantly. However, the downstream demand is weak due to factors such as slow pig production reduction, high feed inventory, wheat substitution, and the upcoming new wheat harvest [1]. Copper - **Spot Market**: The price of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper is in the range of 77,060 - 77,330 yuan, up 645 yuan. The import copper concentrate index is - 34.71, down 3.82 [1]. - **Market Situation**: The global market is still affected by "irrational" tariffs, and overseas capital markets are highly volatile. The Fed's uncertain actions and domestic policy support co - exist. The raw material supply problem of copper has not been completely resolved, and the copper price is in a stage of resonance, with intensified games between reality and expectations [2]. Lithium Carbonate - **Spot Market**: The market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%) is 69,500 yuan/ton (down 500 yuan/ton), and that of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2%) is 68,100 yuan/ton (down 750 yuan/ton) [3]. - **Market Situation**: The forward price of spodumene concentrate is declining. The weekly operating rate is increasing but at a slower pace, and the salt lake production has resumed. The demand has improved but is not strong enough to drive the price up. The weekly inventory has been increasing [3][4]. Steel - **Spot Market**: The price of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper is in the range of 77,060 - 77,330 yuan, up 645 yuan. The import copper concentrate index is - 34.71, down 3.82 [1]. - **Market Situation**: The fundamentals of the steel industry are gradually improving, with a weakened contango structure and a neutral - to - low valuation. Policy supports the real estate industry, the apparent demand for steel has decreased year - on - year, and raw material prices are oscillating weakly. Steel inventories are decreasing, and the market shows a pattern of strong supply and demand. Attention should be paid to the switching between macro - policy expectations and fundamental data [5]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Spot Market**: The price of Mongolian No. 5 coking coal is 1,205 yuan/ton, and the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port is 1,340 yuan/ton. The port inventory of imported coking coal is 337.38 million tons, and the port inventory of coke is 246.10 million tons [6]. - **Market Situation**: The supply of coking coal and coke is relatively abundant. Domestic production capacity is recovering, and the utilization rate of coking plants is stable. The demand from steel mills is weak, and the inventory of independent coking enterprises is gradually increasing. The average profit per ton of coke is approaching the break - even point [6][7]. Iron Ore - **Spot Market**: The Platts Iron Ore Index is 99.3, the price of Qingdao PB (61.5%) powder is 777 yuan, and the price of Australian iron ore fines (62% Fe) is 768 yuan [8]. - **Market Situation**: The iron ore market has both positive and negative factors. The Australian iron ore shipment has decreased, while the Brazilian shipment has increased. The global total shipment has slightly decreased, and the port inventory has decreased. The domestic steel mill's iron production has increased, but the procurement is still cautious. Overseas demand is differentiated, and the U.S. tariff policy increases market volatility [8]. Crude Oil - **Market Situation**: The market sentiment has improved slightly, and the U.S. inventory has decreased. OPEC+ has announced compensation cuts for April - May, offsetting the planned increase in May. However, the impact of the U.S. "reciprocal tariff" policy still exists. In the medium - to - long term, the price center of crude oil will move downward. The demand in the second quarter may be severely affected by the trade war [9]. Rubber - **Spot Market**: Not provided in detail, but mentioned the impact on China's tire and automobile exports [10]. - **Market Situation**: The global rubber market is affected by the U.S. "reciprocal tariff" policy, showing a weak oscillatory trend. The supply in China is gradually recovering, and the supply in Thailand is abundant. The global rubber market has a situation of both loose supply and demand, and the U.S. automobile tariff may suppress the demand [10]. PVC - **Spot Market**: The mainstream price of East China Type 5 PVC is 4,780 yuan/ton, and that of ethylene - based PVC is 5,050 yuan/ton, both remaining unchanged [11]. - **Market Situation**: The operating rate of PVC production enterprises has increased. The demand from downstream enterprises has not improved significantly, and the inventory has decreased. The futures price may oscillate at low levels due to weak demand [11]. Soda Ash - **Spot Market**: The national mainstream price of heavy soda ash is 1,413.06 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged [12]. - **Market Situation**: The overall operating rate of soda ash production has increased, and the output has increased. The manufacturer's inventory has increased, while the social inventory has decreased. The demand is average, and the futures market may be weakly oscillatory in the short term [12].

1、现货市场：日照嘉吉一级豆油 8130 元/吨，较上一交易涨 60 元/吨。 2、宏观：特朗普时期的"对等关税"政策通过重塑全球贸易流、产业链定价权及市场风险 偏好，对期货市场形成了系统性冲击。 3、市场分析：当前时间窗口下，正处美豆播种与南美豆收割、出口季，目前巴西豆收割基 本完成。总体来看，南美新作丰产格局或将大概率成为事实。后市豆油中期新增供给与下 游需求或维持中性，豆油中期库存或维持整理。 4、参考观点：豆油 2509 合约，短线或区间震荡整理。 现货信息：43 豆粕各地区现货报价：张家港 3500 元/吨（70）、天津 3860 元/吨（160）、 日照 3580 元/吨（100）、东莞 3480 元/吨（210）。 市场分析：（1）宏观面: 中美贸易关税问题暂未解决，影响中美大豆贸易。 （2）国际大豆：美豆开启播种，进度超过预期。巴西大豆收割接近尾声，关注最终产量。 加征关税背景下，美豆出口悲观预期仍存。 （3）国内豆粕供需面：巴西大豆逐渐到港，油厂开机率回升，豆粕供给预期将逐渐转为宽 松。现货市场五一节前备货与油厂开工出现错配，豆粕库存降至低点。 参考观点：豆粕短线或震荡偏强。 现货信息：东北 ...

总部地址：安徽省合肥市包河区花园大道 986 号安粮中心 23-24 层 客服热线： 400—626—9988 网站地址：www.alqh.com 安粮期货研究报告 安粮期货商品研究报告 玉米期货周报（20250421-0425） 投资咨询业务资格 安粮期货研究所 2025 年 4 月 21 日 皖证监函【2017】203 号 研究所 农产品小组 研究员: 李雨馨 从业资格号：F3023505 投资咨询号：Z0013987 助理研究员： 潘兆敏：从业资格证号：F03064781 初审： 沈欣萌：从业资格号：F3029146 投资咨询号：Z0014147 复审： 李雨馨：从业资格号：F3023505 投资咨询号：Z0013987 1 / 6 安粮期货研究报告 综述：玉米期价震荡运行 等待新题材指引 品种： 玉米 本周看法： 短期玉米期价区间震荡，维持区间操作思路。 上周看法： 短期玉米期价区间震荡运行，短线参与为主。 周度建议： 短期市场暂无趋势性因素推动价格走出长线趋势，因此玉米期价区间内反复震荡，投 资者短线参与为主。 逻辑判断： 下游淀粉加工利润：近期玉米价格重心上移，挤压了下游加工利润，因此下游加工利润 ...

1、现货市场：日照嘉吉一级豆油 8070 元/吨，较上一交易涨 20 元/吨。 2、宏观：特朗普时期的"对等关税"政策通过重塑全球贸易流、产业链定价权及市场风险 偏好，对期货市场形成了系统性冲击。 3、市场分析：当前时间窗口下，正处美豆播种与南美豆收割、出口季，目前巴西豆收割基 本完成。总体来看，南美新作丰产格局或将大概率成为事实。后市豆油中期新增供给与下 游需求或维持中性，豆油中期库存或维持整理。 4、参考观点：豆油 2509 合约，短线或面临整理。 现货信息：43 豆粕各地区现货报价：张家港 3170（50）、天津 3650（60）、日照 3320（120）。 市场分析：（1）宏观面: 中美关税政策引发市场恐慌，市场担忧美农产品出口因此遭到影 响。 （2）国际大豆：巴西大豆收割接近尾声，关注最终产量。加征关税背景下，美豆出口悲观 预期仍存。 （3）国内豆粕供需面：近期豆粕供应依旧偏紧，巴西大豆预期 4 月中下旬到港， 5-7 月大 豆到港预计超千万吨。下游养殖企业库存低位，豆粕成交小幅提振。油厂豆粕库存维持中 性。 参考观点：多重因素共振，豆粕短线或区间震荡。 现货信息：东北三省及内蒙重点深加工企业新玉米 ...

1、现货市场：日照嘉吉一级豆油 8090 元/吨，较上一交易涨 90 元/吨。 2、宏观：特朗普时期的"对等关税"政策通过重塑全球贸易流、产业链定价权及市场风险 偏好，对期货市场形成了系统性冲击。 3、市场分析：当前时间窗口下，正处美豆播种与南美豆收割、出口季，目前巴西豆收割基 本完成。总体来看，南美新作丰产格局或将大概率成为事实。后市豆油中期新增供给与下 游需求或维持中性，豆油中期库存或维持整理。 4、参考观点：豆油 2509 合约，短线或面临整理。 现货信息：43 豆粕各地区现货报价：张家港 3170（50）、天津 3650（60）、日照 3320（120）。 市场分析：（1）宏观面: 中美关税政策引发市场恐慌，市场担忧美农产品出口因此遭到影 响。 （2）国际大豆：巴西大豆收割接近尾声，关注最终产量。加征关税背景下，美豆出口悲观 预期仍存。 （3）国内豆粕供需面：近期豆粕供应依旧偏紧，巴西大豆预期 4 月中下旬到港， 5-7 月大 豆到港预计超千万吨。下游养殖企业库存低位，豆粕成交小幅提振。油厂豆粕库存维持中 性。 参考观点：多重因素共振，豆粕短线或区间震荡。 现货信息：东北三省及内蒙重点深加工企业新玉米 ...