Group 1: Macroeconomics and Stock Index - The expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut is rising, and the weakening dollar is beneficial to the risk appetite of emerging markets. The domestic economy shows a "stable and progressive" trend, with the contribution rate of consumption to GDP growth significantly increasing, investment in science - and - technology manufacturing accelerating, and the export structure tilting towards the mid - to - high - end market. The monetary policy remains flexible and appropriate, and ample liquidity supports the market. Attention should be paid to the policy signals of the Lujiazui Forum on June 18th, and the Middle - East situation may cause increased volatility. Neutral strategies are recommended for IH and IF, such as holding short out - of - the - money options or lightly long positions. For IC and IM, inter - period spread arbitrage can be arranged, or long forward contracts can be bought at low prices to hedge against fluctuations [2] Group 2: Crude Oil - The development of the Israel - Iran conflict is a key factor affecting oil prices recently. The market is starting to wait and see, and volatility has increased significantly. Fundamentally, the peak summer season for crude oil is coming, and U.S. inventories have declined for three consecutive weeks, which supports the rise in oil prices to some extent. However, in the medium term, the Middle - East situation, especially Iran's counter - attack against Israel's attack, needs to be closely monitored. If the situation in the Middle East continues to escalate, oil prices are likely to rise. Many institutions predict that if the regional conflict further expands, oil prices may return to the high - price range. If the driving factor fades or the conflict de - escalates, the risk premium of crude oil will also decline rapidly. The WTI main contract should focus on the resistance around $78 per barrel [3] Group 3: Gold - Iran has released signals to ease the Israel - Iran conflict, but the fire incident of three oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz has intensified the tension, and the safe - haven demand has pushed up the price of gold. Trump announced the suspension of sanctions against Russia at the G7 summit, which led to a partial decline in the gold price, but geopolitical uncertainties still exist. As of the early Asian session on June 17th, spot gold was trading around $3380 - $3400 per ounce, rising slightly during the day and touching the $3400 mark. Technically, attention should be paid to the support around $3385 and the resistance around $3450. The Middle - East risk premium (short - term) and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation (medium - term) support the price, but profit - taking behavior restrains the increase. In the short - term strategy, the development of the Israel - Iran conflict is the core driving factor. If the situation deteriorates, the gold price may break through around $3450; if there is a diplomatic breakthrough, it may fall to the support area of $3250 - $3300. The differences in trade at the G7 summit should also be synchronously monitored. In the long - term, the uncertainty of the global economy, the intensification of trade frictions, and the rising inflation expectation may provide structural support for gold [4] Group 4: Silver - As of the Asian session on June 17th, the international silver price was trading in a narrow range between $36.1 - $36.5 per ounce, and the increase in the warehouse receipt volume indicates intensified long - short competition. Iran is seeking to mediate the Israel - Iran conflict through Oman and Qatar, but Israel claims to have "controlled the airspace over Tehran", and Iran warns of an "unprecedented" attack. The risk of conflict escalation supports safe - haven assets. The tariff differences between the U.S. and Europe remain unresolved (the EU may accept a unified tariff of 10%), but the market focus has shifted to the Middle - East situation. If the U.S. intervenes, it may further push up precious metals. The gold - silver ratio is still at a historical high, and the industrial demand for silver and the logic of a supplementary rise attract funds. The positions of Shanghai silver have increased in the past five days, highlighting the bullish sentiment. Attention should be paid to the key support at $36 per ounce. Currently, it is still in a volatile market. If the Middle - East situation eases, the safe - haven demand may weaken, and if the Fed's interest - rate cut pace fails to meet expectations, it may suppress the upward space of the silver price [5] Group 5: Chemical Industry PTA - The spot price in East China is 5020 yuan per ton, with a month - on - month increase of 15 yuan per ton and a basis of 270 yuan per ton. The Middle - East geopolitical factors led to a relatively strong trend in the cost - end crude - oil price last week, which supports the PTA price, but the upward space is limited. In June, PTA plants are undergoing both maintenance and restart, with the overall operating rate maintained at 83.25%, a month - on - month increase of 4.25%. The available inventory days are 4.03 days, basically the same as the previous period but still at a historical low, showing a continuous de - stocking trend. The polyester factory load is maintained at 88.72%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.46%, and the Jiangsu - Zhejiang loom load is 61.02%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.24%. The textile market is in the off - season, with weak orders and a lack of positive stimuli, and inventory pressure is gradually emerging. In general, the cost - end crude - oil fluctuations provide short - term support, but the supply - demand contradiction of PTA itself still dominates the price trend. In the short term, it may fluctuate following the cost end [6] Ethylene Glycol - The spot price in East China is reported at 4470 yuan per ton, with a month - on - month increase of 33 yuan per ton and a basis of 70 yuan per ton. Affected by geopolitical factors, some Middle - East plants have shut down, but the overall operating load of ethylene glycol is 55.07%, a month - on - month increase of 2.71%, and the coal - based operating rate is 55.28%, a month - on - month increase of 3.95%. The weekly output is 33.71 tons, an increase of 1.82 tons compared with the previous week. The inventory in the main ports of East China is 56.38 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.42 tons. The polyester factory load is maintained at 88.72%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.46%, the Jiangsu - Zhejiang loom load is 61.02%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.24%, and the terminal order days are 9.91 days, a month - on - month decrease of 0.51 days. Currently, the ethylene - glycol market focuses on geopolitical factors and cost - end price changes in the short term, and needs to track tariff policies and the recovery of downstream demand in the medium term. In the short term, it may fluctuate slightly to the upside [7] PVC - The mainstream spot price of Type 5 PVC in East China is 4750 yuan per ton, remaining unchanged month - on - month; the mainstream price of ethylene - based PVC is 5050 yuan per ton, with a month - on - month increase of 50 yuan per ton; the price difference between ethylene and electricity is 300 yuan per ton, with a month - on - month increase of 50 yuan per ton. In terms of supply, last week it was 79.25%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.47% and a year - on - year increase of 3.23%. Among them, the calcium - carbide method was 81.77%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.54% and a year - on - year increase of 6.32%, and the ethylene method was 72.59%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.94% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.11%. In terms of demand, there is no obvious improvement in domestic downstream product enterprises, and transactions are still mainly for rigid demand. As of June 12th, the new sample statistics of PVC social inventory decreased by 2.59% month - on - month to 57.36 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 36.83%. Among them, the inventory in East China was 52.20 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.72% and a year - on - year decrease of 38.25%; the inventory in South China was 5.16 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.24% and a year - on - year decrease of 17.69%. Affected by market sentiment, the futures price rebounded slightly on June 17th, but the fundamentals of PVC have not improved significantly, and the futures price is oscillating at a low level [8] PP - In the spot market, the mainstream price of PP raffia in North China is 7161 yuan per ton, with a month - on - month increase of 29 yuan per ton; in East China, it is 7195 yuan per ton, with a month - on - month increase of 44 yuan per ton; in South China, it is 7308 yuan per ton, with a month - on - month increase of 24 yuan per ton. In terms of supply, last week the average capacity utilization rate of polypropylene was 78.64%, a month - on - month increase of 1.63%; the capacity utilization rate of Sinopec was 77.99%, a month - on - month increase of 0.45%. The domestic polypropylene output was 77.56 tons, an increase of 1.79 tons compared with last week's 75.77 tons, a rise of 2.36%; compared with the 65.54 tons in the same period last year, it increased by 12.02 tons, a rise of 18.34%. In terms of demand, the average operating rate of domestic polypropylene downstream industries decreased by 0.04 percentage points to 49.97%. In terms of inventory, as of June 11, 2025, the port sample inventory of Chinese polypropylene decreased by 0.18 tons compared with the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 2.71%, and inventory was successfully reduced last week. On June 17th, the futures price rebounded slightly, mainly due to market sentiment. The fundamentals are weak, there is no obvious driving force, and the futures price may oscillate. Be vigilant against the risk of sentiment decline [9][10] Plastic - In the spot market, the mainstream price in North China is 7386 yuan per ton, with a month - on - month increase of 31 yuan per ton; in East China, it is 7560 yuan per ton, with a month - on - month increase of 45 yuan per ton; in South China, it is 7721 yuan per ton, with a month - on - month increase of 27 yuan per ton. From the supply side, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese polyethylene production enterprises is 79.17%, an increase of 1.76 percentage points compared with the previous period. From the demand side, the average operating rate of downstream products of LLDPE/LDPE in China last week decreased by 0.49% compared with the previous period. Among them, the overall operating rate of agricultural films decreased by 0.53% compared with the previous period, and the operating rate of PE packaging films decreased by 0.45% compared with the previous period. In terms of inventory, as of June 11, 2025, the sample inventory of Chinese polyethylene production enterprises was 50.87 tons, a decrease of 0.9 tons compared with the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 1.74%, and the inventory trend changed from increasing to decreasing. Driven by the increase in the cost - end price of crude oil, the futures price rebounded on June 17th. Currently, the fundamentals of plastics are weak, the futures price may oscillate, and be vigilant against the risk of sentiment decline [11] Soda Ash - The mainstream price of heavy soda ash in the Shahe area is 1214 yuan per ton, remaining unchanged month - on - month. There are slight differences among regions. The mainstream price of heavy soda ash in East China is 1350 yuan per ton, in North China is 1400 yuan per ton, and in Central China is 1350 yuan per ton, all remaining unchanged month - on - month. In terms of supply, last week the overall operating rate of soda ash was 84.9%, a month - on - month increase of 4.14%. The soda - ash output was 74.49 tons, an increase of 4.08 tons compared with the previous period, a rise of 5.79%. Recently, equipment operation has been relatively stable, and there are few maintenance enterprises. In terms of inventory, last week the factory inventory was 168.63 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.93 tons, a rise of 3.64%. It is understood that the social inventory decreased by nearly 2 tons, with a total of more than 32 tons. The demand side shows average performance. Mid - and downstream enterprises replenish their inventories for rigid demand for low - price goods, but still have a resistance to high - price goods. Overall, the market lacks new driving forces, and it is expected that the futures market will continue to oscillate in the bottom - range in the short term. Continuously pay attention to equipment maintenance dynamics and unexpected events [12] Glass - The market price of 5mm large - size glass in the Shahe area is 1117 yuan per ton, remaining unchanged month - on - month. There are slight differences among regions. The market price of 5mm large - size glass in East China is 1230 yuan per ton, in North China is 1130 yuan per ton, and in Central China is 1070 yuan per ton, all remaining unchanged month - on - month. In terms of supply, last week the operating rate of float glass was 75.57%, a month - on - month increase of 0.03%. The weekly glass output was 109.12 tons, a decrease of 0.67 tons compared with the previous period, a decline of 0.61%. Recently, the supply level has not fluctuated much, but there are still plans to ignite production lines from June to July. Pay attention to production - line changes. In terms of inventory, last week the factory inventory of float glass was 6968.5 ten - thousand weight - boxes, a month - on - month decrease of 6.9 ten - thousand weight - boxes, a decline of 0.1%. With the coming of the rainy season, the enterprise inventory pressure cannot be ignored. The demand side remains weak and has not improved significantly. In the short term, it is difficult for the glass demand to improve substantially, and it is expected that the futures market will oscillate weakly in the short term. Continuously pay attention to changes in enterprise inventory, production - line changes, and market sentiment [13][14] Rubber - The spot price of rubber: domestic full - latex is 13900 yuan per ton, Thai smoked three - piece is 19500 yuan per ton, Vietnamese 3L standard rubber is 15000 yuan per ton, and No. 20 rubber is 13650 yuan per ton. The raw - material price in Hat Yai: smoked sheets are 66.87 Thai baht per kilogram, latex is 56.95 Thai baht per kilogram, cup lump is 47.2 Thai baht per kilogram, and raw rubber is 64 Thai baht per kilogram. Rubber is mainly driven by market sentiment to rebound, but the repeated situation of the U.S. resuming trade - war tariffs and the supply - exceeding - demand fundamentals restrict the rebound height of rubber. Pay close attention to the recent strength of the crude - oil chemical sector. Fundamentally, domestic full - latex has started production, the Yunnan production area has fully started production, and the supply of Hainan latex has begun to increase. The Southeast - Asian production areas have fully started production, and the overall supply is in a loose state. Currently, the global supply and demand of rubber are both loose. This week, the operating rate of downstream tires for passenger cars is 69.98%, a month - on - month increase of 5.93% and a year - on - year decrease of 10%. The operating rate of truck tires is 58.7%, a month - on - month increase of 3.05% and a year - on - year increase of 4.95%. The market is hyping up macro - narratives such as the trade war. The U.S. imposing tariffs on automobiles and expanding the scope of tariffs on household appliances may seriously suppress global rubber demand. Pay close attention to the operating conditions of rubber downstream enterprises. Currently, the operating rate has rebounded this week, and combined with macro - sentiment, it drives the rubber price to rebound. Pay attention to factors such as domestic rubber import volume and inventory changes [15][16] Methanol - The domestic spot price of methanol has generally increased. The spot price of methanol in East China is reported at 2585 yuan per ton, an increase of 95 yuan per ton compared with the previous day. The closing price of the main methanol futures contract MA509 is reported at 2455 yuan per ton, a decrease of 0.37% compared with the previous trading day. In terms of port inventory, the inventory of Chinese methanol ports has increased, with a stock of 65.2

安粮期货研究报告 安粮期货商品研究报告 豆粕：大豆供应压力仍存，期价区间震荡 安粮期货研究所 2025 年 6 月 16 日 投资咨询业务资格 皖证监函【2017】203 号 研究所 农产品小组 研究员：李雨馨 从业资格号：F3023505 投资咨询号：Z0013987 助理研究员： 朱书颖：从业资格证号：F03120547 初审： 沈欣萌：从业资格号： F3029146 投资咨询号： Z0014147 复审： 李雨馨： 从业资格号：F3023505 投资咨询号：Z0013987 总部地址：合肥市包河区花园大道 986 号安粮中心 23-24 层 客服热线： 400—626—9988 网站地址：www.alqh.com 1 / 7 安粮期货研究报告 豆粕：短线或区间震荡 一、宏观分析 中 美 会 谈 结 束 ，就 落 实 两 国 元 首 6 月 5 日 通 话 重 要 共 识 和 巩 固 日 内 瓦 经 贸 会 谈 成 果 的 措 施 框 架 达 成 原 则 一 致 。 二、基本面分析 （ 1） 成 本 端 市 场 消 化 利 多 因 素 ， CBOT 大 豆 先 小 幅 反 弹 后 因 生 物 燃 料 政 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the main contract of lithium carbonate briefly rebounded after an over - decline and then came under pressure again. This week, the main contract has switched to LC2509. The fundamentals show a weak supply - demand balance. The lithium ore market has stopped falling and stabilized, with a slight increase in the CIF price of spodumene concentrate and a significant decline in inventory. Although the weekly operating rate on the supply side has slightly declined, it is still at a high level. In the short term, lithium extraction from salt lakes has gradually replaced lithium extraction from mica as the main force for production growth. The demand side shows signs of weakness, with only the demand for power batteries remaining resilient, while the cathode material and terminal consumption sectors have not met expectations. Currently, the fundamentals have not substantially improved. The stabilization of ore prices provides bottom support, but the signal of upstream production cuts is unclear, and lithium prices lack upward drivers. It is expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation in the short term. It is recommended that conservative investors wait and see, while those with a higher risk appetite can seize the opportunities of range fluctuations [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry News - Zimbabwe will ban the export of lithium concentrate in 2027. On June 10, local time, a Zimbabwean cabinet minister said that to promote the development of local mining processing and encourage foreign companies to carry out refining operations in the country, Zimbabwe will ban the export of lithium concentrate in 2027. CRU Group data shows that in 2024, Zimbabwe supplied about 14% of China's lithium imports, and the lithium sulfate it produces will still be shipped to China for processing into battery - grade materials [7]. 3.2 Cost Side - Lithium ore prices: As of June 16, the price of spodumene concentrate (6%) was 660 yuan/ton, and the CIF price was 628 (+20) US dollars/ton; the price of lepidolite concentrate (2 - 2.5%) was 555 yuan/ton, and the price of lepidolite concentrate (3.5 - 4%) was 735 yuan/ton. Except for the increase in the CIF price, other prices remained unchanged. - Lithium ore imports: In April, the monthly import volume of spodumene was 142,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 77.7% and a month - on - month decrease of 27.3%; the import value was 33 million US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 92.1% and a month - on - month decrease of 4%. - Lithium ore inventory: As of June 13, the weekly inventory of lithium ore in China was 81,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9,000 tons. - Profit: As of June 13, according to Steel Union data, the average cost of lithium carbonate was 70,000 (+1,000) yuan/ton, and the production profit was - 9,400 (-700) yuan/ton, still below the break - even point. Among them, the production cost of externally purchased spodumene was 60,000 (+1,000) yuan/ton, and the production gross profit was - 84 (-1,200) yuan/ton. The production cost of externally purchased lepidolite was 72,000 (-2,000) yuan/ton, and the production gross profit was - 11,000 yuan/ton [9]. 3.3 Supply - Demand Analysis - Supply: According to Longzhong Information, the monthly output of lithium carbonate in April was 70,640 tons, a year - on - year increase of 40.4% and a month - on - month decrease of 0.87%; the capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate in the week of June 13 was 62.7%, a year - on - year decrease of 0.03% and a month - on - month increase of 0.2%. In April, the import volume of lithium carbonate was 28,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 56.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 33.6%. The main import areas were still concentrated in South America. In April, Chile exported 20,200 tons to China, a year - on - year decrease of 18.1% and a month - on - month increase of 29.2%. The import value in March was 270 million US dollars [7][12]. - Demand: In the week of June 16, the capacity utilization rate of ternary materials was 48.49%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.71% and a year - on - year increase of 0.66%; in May, the monthly capacity utilization rate of lithium iron phosphate was 58.78%, a year - on - year increase of 10.75% and a month - on - month increase of 0.39%. In May, China's power battery output was 123.5 GWh, a year - on - year increase of 49.33% and a month - on - month increase of 4.48%; the power battery loading volume was 57.1 GWh, a year - on - year increase of 43.1% and a month - on - month increase of 5.5%, with a loading rate of 46.3%. Among them, the loading volume of ternary batteries was 10.5 GWh, a year - on - year increase of 1.6% and a month - on - month increase of 13.1%, accounting for 17.2% of the total loading volume; the loading volume of lithium iron phosphate batteries was 46.5 GWh, a year - on - year increase of 57.7% and a month - on - month decrease of 3.9%, accounting for 81.6% of the total loading volume. From June 1 - 8, the retail sales of the new - energy passenger vehicle market nationwide were 202,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 40% compared with the same period in June last year and a 4% increase compared with the same period last month, with a retail penetration rate of 58.8%. The cumulative retail sales this year were 4.559 million units, a year - on - year increase of 34%. From June 1 - 8, the wholesale volume of new - energy vehicles by national passenger vehicle manufacturers was 166,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 5% compared with the same period in June last year and a 6% decrease compared with the same period last month, with a wholesale penetration rate of 53.5%. The cumulative wholesale volume this year was 5.373 million units, a year - on - year increase of 39% [7][14][15]. 3.4 Inventory Analysis - Weekly inventory: As of June 13, the weekly inventory was 133,549 (+1,117) physical tons, including 57,653 (+537) physical tons in smelter inventory, 40,686 (-390) physical tons in downstream inventory, and 35,210 (+970) physical tons in other links' inventory. - Monthly inventory: In May, the monthly inventory was 97,637 physical tons, a year - on - year increase of 32% and a month - on - month increase of 1%. Among them, the downstream inventory was 42,246 (+4,358) physical tons, and the smelter inventory was 55,391 (-2,923) physical tons. - Exchange inventory: After centralized cancellation and re - registration at the end of March, as of June 13, the total number of warehouse receipts reached 32,118 lots, a month - on - month decrease of 1,191 lots compared with last week [18]. 3.5 Spread Analysis - Spot - futures prices: The price of the 2507 main contract of lithium carbonate rebounded after an over - decline and then came under pressure, with a weekly decline of 0.83%. And the main contract has switched to LC2509, so the trading volume and open interest data have significantly declined. The trading volume was 945,000 lots, a decrease of 275,000 lots compared with the previous period; the open interest decreased by 70,000 lots to 147,000 lots. The market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%) was reported at 60,500 (-250) yuan/ton, and the market price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2%) was reported at 58,900 (-250) yuan/ton. The price difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 1,650 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged compared with the previous trading day. - Basis analysis: The spot - futures basis of the Lc2507 contract strengthened within the week, and the spot showed a premium on Friday. On June 13, the basis was 760 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 400 yuan/ton. - Spot - futures structure: On June 13, the 09 - 11 spread was - 140 yuan/ton, and the 11 - 01 spread was - 480 yuan/ton. There was little change, and the overall structure presented a Contango structure [21].

Group 1: Macro - Overseas geopolitical risks, especially in the Middle East, have intensified market risk - aversion and affected global capital markets. China's foreign trade faces pressure with slowing export growth. The domestic economic structure is still differentiated, with weak real - estate investment dragging down growth expectations. Internet services, culture and media, and software development received over 5 billion yuan in net inflows of main funds [2] - Given the current macro - environment uncertainties, especially frequent overseas risk events, investors are advised to allocate assets rationally and consider using derivatives like options to hedge potential volatility risks [2] Group 2: Crude Oil - The Israel - Iran conflict has led to a sharp rise in crude oil and chemical prices. The approaching summer peak season, declining US inventories, and a predicted decline in US production support price increases. However, the price is highly sensitive to the development of the Middle East situation [3] - WTI main contract should focus on the resistance around $78 per barrel [3] Group 3: Gold - Geopolitical risks, expectations of Fed rate cuts, weakening attractiveness of US dollar assets, and central bank gold purchases support the gold price. The ongoing G7 summit and the Ukraine situation add to geopolitical uncertainties [4] - Gold has shown a clear upward trend since early 2025, with a cumulative increase of over 30%. Investors should be wary of short - term technical adjustment pressure and focus on the Fed's FOMC interest rate decision on June 19 [4][5] Group 4: Silver - Geopolitical risks in the Middle East boost risk - aversion, but the unclear Fed rate - cut signal and concerns about industrial demand create a mixed situation. The iShares Silver ETF holdings are at a low level, and inventory data shows a downward trend in some regions [6] - Silver is in a high - level oscillation pattern. Investors should be cautious about the possible return of the gold - silver ratio to rational levels and focus on the Fed's FOMC interest rate decision on June 19 [6] Group 5: Chemicals PTA - The rising crude oil price due to Middle East geopolitics supports PTA prices, but the upside is limited. PTA device maintenance and restart are concurrent, with an overall operating rate of 83.25%. The textile market is in a slack season, and inventory pressure is emerging [7] - PTA may fluctuate in the short term following cost - end changes [7] Ethylene Glycol - Although some devices are under maintenance or production cuts, the overall operating load of ethylene glycol has increased. Inventories in the East China main port have decreased, while downstream demand is weakening. The market should focus on cost - end price changes and downstream production - cut progress in the short term and tariff policies and device maintenance dynamics in the medium term [8] - Ethylene glycol may fluctuate in the short term following cost - end changes [8] PVC - PVC supply is relatively stable, but downstream demand has not improved significantly. Social inventories have decreased, but the fundamentals remain weak, and the futures price is oscillating at a low level [9][10] - The PVC futures price will oscillate at a low level due to weak fundamentals [10] PP - Polypropylene production capacity utilization has increased, but downstream demand has slightly decreased. Port inventories have decreased. The futures price may oscillate, and investors should be wary of the risk of market sentiment reversal [11] - The fundamentals of PP have not improved, and investors should be wary of the risk of market sentiment reversal [12] Plastic - The production capacity utilization of polyethylene has increased, while downstream demand has decreased. Inventories have changed from an upward to a downward trend. The futures price may oscillate, and investors should be wary of the risk of market sentiment reversal [13] - The fundamentals of plastic are weak, and investors should be wary of the risk of market sentiment reversal [13] Soda Ash - Soda ash production has increased, and factory inventories have risen, while social inventories have decreased. Downstream demand is average, and the market lacks new driving forces. The futures price is expected to continue oscillating at the bottom in the short term [14] - The soda ash futures price is expected to continue oscillating at the bottom in the short term [14] Glass - The supply of float glass has been relatively stable, with a slight decrease in weekly output. Inventories have decreased slightly, but the approaching rainy season may increase inventory pressure. Downstream demand remains weak. The futures price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [15] - The glass futures price is expected to continue oscillating weakly in the short term [15] Rubber - Rubber prices are mainly driven by market sentiment, with the rebound limited by the US trade - war tariff policy and the oversupply situation. The supply of rubber is abundant as domestic and Southeast Asian production areas are in the harvest season. The downstream tire - making industry's operating rate has increased [17] - Rubber prices may rebound mainly due to market resonance, and investors should focus on the downstream operating rate [17] Methanol - The spot price of methanol has increased, and the futures price has also risen. Port inventories have increased, and supply pressure persists. However, due to the situation in Iran, imports are expected to decrease significantly. The demand side shows a mixed situation [18] - The methanol futures price may oscillate strongly, and investors should focus on the inventory accumulation speed at ports and the impact of the Middle East situation on crude oil prices [18] Group 6: Agricultural Products Corn - The USDA report has a limited positive impact on corn prices. The domestic corn market is in a transition period between old and new crops, with a potential shortage of supply. Wheat may replace corn in the feed - use field, and downstream demand is weak [19][20] - Corn main contract is expected to oscillate between 2300 - 2400 yuan per ton in the short term, and investors should focus on whether it can break through the upper pressure level [20] Peanut - The increase in the US bio - fuel standard has supported peanut futures sentiment, but the peanut's own fundamentals do not support continuous price increases. The estimated increase in domestic peanut planting area may lead to lower prices. Currently, the market is in a period of inventory consumption, with low inventory levels and weak supply - demand [21] - Peanut main contract is expected to oscillate in the short term without a clear trend [21] Cotton - Positive progress in Sino - US economic and trade relations has driven up cotton prices. The USDA report is positive for cotton, but the expected increase in domestic cotton production may keep prices low. Currently, imports are low, and commercial inventories are below normal levels, but downstream textile demand is weak [22] - Cotton prices are expected to run strongly in a short - term range, and investors should focus on whether it can fill the previous gap [22] Live Pig - The government's purchase and storage policy has sent a positive signal, but the market supply is sufficient, and demand is weak. Although the enthusiasm for secondary fattening has increased after the price decline, terminal consumption remains dull [23] - For the live pig 2509 contract, investors should focus on whether it can break through the upper pressure level of 14,000 yuan and continuously monitor the slaughter situation [23] Egg - The supply of eggs is sufficient due to a high inventory of laying hens. In the demand side, hot and humid weather makes egg storage difficult, and downstream procurement is cautious [24][25] - The current egg futures price is undervalued, and there is limited room for downward movement. It is recommended to wait and see for now [25] Soybean No. 2 - The breakthrough in US bio - fuel has boosted US soybeans. The good weather in the US soybean - growing area and the peak export season of Brazilian soybeans have affected the market. The export prospects of US soybeans are unclear [26] - Soybean No. 2 may oscillate strongly in the short term [26] Soybean Meal - The US tariff policy and global geopolitical instability affect soybean meal prices. US soybean sowing is progressing smoothly, and Brazilian soybeans are in the export peak season. Domestically, the supply pressure of soybean meal is increasing, and downstream demand is weakening [27] - Soybean meal may oscillate in a short - term range [27] Soybean Oil - The breakthrough in US bio - fuel has led to an increase in the external market, which has driven up domestic soybean oil prices. The good weather in the US soybean - growing area and the peak export season of Brazilian soybeans have an impact. Domestically, the supply of soybean meal is expected to increase, and downstream demand is in the off - season [28] - Soybean oil may oscillate strongly in the short term [28] Group 7: Metals Shanghai Copper - The Middle East situation has a complex impact on copper prices. Although there are signs of easing, the uncertainty persists. Domestic support policies have improved market sentiment. However, raw - material supply problems remain, and copper inventories are decreasing [29] - Copper prices are testing the lower neckline of the island pattern, and investors should focus on its effectiveness as a defense line [29] Shanghai Aluminum - Positive progress in Sino - US economic and trade consultations and US rate - cut expectations have boosted market sentiment. The supply of electrolytic aluminum is stable, while downstream demand is entering the off - season. Low inventories support prices, but there is pressure from weakening demand [30] - The Shanghai Aluminum 2507 contract is expected to oscillate within a range [30] Alumina - Alumina supply is sufficient, and the operating rate has increased. Downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs, and inventories have slightly increased. The market is in a situation of oversupply, and prices are under pressure [31] - The Alumina 2509 contract shows a weak adjustment trend [31] Cast Aluminum Alloy - Tight scrap - aluminum supply provides cost support, but the industry is facing over - supply pressure due to capacity expansion. The demand from the new - energy vehicle industry may slow down in the second half of the year, and inventories are at a relatively high level [32] - The Cast Aluminum Alloy 2511 contract may run weakly [32] Lithium Carbonate - The lithium - ore market has stabilized, and inventories have decreased. The supply of lithium carbonate is still at a high level, while demand is weak except for the power - battery sector. The fundamentals have not improved substantially, and prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [33] - Conservative investors are advised to wait and see, while aggressive investors can operate within the range [33] Industrial Silicon - Supply is increasing as various regions resume production, especially in Xinjiang and the Southwest. Demand is mainly for on - demand procurement, and the market is in a loose state. Inventories are slightly decreasing, and prices are under pressure [35] - The Industrial Silicon 2509 contract will oscillate at the bottom [35] Polysilicon - Supply is increasing due to factory restarts in Sichuan and new - capacity expectations. Demand is weak, with a significant decline in the photovoltaic industry's demand. The market's supply - demand contradiction remains unsolved, and short - term improvement space is limited [36][37] - The Polysilicon 2507 contract will mainly oscillate, and investors should focus on the previous low - point support [37] Group 8: Black Metals Stainless Steel - Technically, the price trend may change from a one - sided decline to a low - level oscillation, but the rebound is restricted by the moving - average system. Fundamentally, the cold - demand of ferronickel weakens cost support, and supply pressure remains while demand is weak [38] - Stainless steel prices will oscillate widely at a low level and have not yet stabilized. It is recommended to wait and see for now [38] Rebar - The futures price has changed from a resistive decline to an oscillation under a high basis. Fundamentally, the macro - sentiment has improved, raw - material prices in the industry chain have stabilized, and the cost center is dynamically operating. Demand is in the off - season, inventories are low, and the valuation is relatively low [39][40] - Rebar has a relatively low overall valuation. In the short term, investors can take a light - position, low - buying, and long - biased approach [40] Hot - Rolled Coil - Technically, the price trend is changing from a decline to a stabilization. Fundamentally, external negotiations are progressing smoothly, raw - material prices in the industry chain have stabilized, and the cost center is dynamically operating. Demand has recovered, inventories are low, and the valuation is relatively low [41] - Hot - rolled coil has a relatively low overall valuation. In the short term, investors can take a light - position, low - buying, and long - biased approach [41] Iron Ore - Supply is at a high level as Australian and non - mainstream country shipments increase. Demand remains strong as steel - mill production enthusiasm is high despite a slight decline in blast - furnace operating rates. Port inventories are increasing, but the rate of increase is narrowing [42] - Iron Ore 2509 may oscillate in the short term. Investors should focus on the port inventory reduction speed and steel - mill restart rhythm [42] Coal - For coking coal, inventories in steel mills and independent coking plants are decreasing, while port inventories are slightly increasing. Supply has decreased due to safety inspections in Shanxi, but inventories are still high. Demand is weak as coke price cuts have reduced coke - enterprise profits. For coke, inventories in steel mills and ports are decreasing, supply has decreased, and demand is weak as steel - mill profitability has declined [43] - Coking coal and coke main contracts are expected to oscillate in the near term. Investors should focus on steel - mill inventory reduction and policy implementation [44]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Corn futures prices declined slightly, with the futures main contract C2507 closing at 2359 yuan/ton. Corn option trading volume was 114,451 lots, open interest was 412,397 lots, and the trading volume PCR was 0.644. The option weighted implied volatility was 11.67%, and the 30 - day historical volatility was 7.70%. The option implied volatility increased significantly [3]. - Soybean meal futures prices fluctuated slightly, with the futures main contract M2509 closing at 3045 yuan/ton. Soybean meal option trading volume was 344,631 lots, open interest was 1,035,482 lots, and the trading volume PCR was 0.966. The option weighted implied volatility was 22.12%, and the 30 - day historical volatility was 10.81%. The option implied volatility increased sharply [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Data Statistics - For the corn main contract C2507, the closing price was 2359 yuan/ton, with a decline of 19 yuan and a decline rate of 0.80%. The trading volume was 409,117 lots, an increase of 19,798 lots, and the open interest was 637,414 lots, a decrease of 64,999 lots [5]. - For the soybean meal main contract M2509, the closing price was 3045 yuan/ton, with an increase of 4 yuan and an increase rate of 0.13%. The trading volume was 1,422,022 lots, an increase of 254,197 lots, and the open interest was 2,305,935 lots, a decrease of 12,086 lots [5]. 3.2 Option Market Data Statistics - For corn options, the trading volume was 114,451 lots, an increase of 13,129 lots. The trading volume PCR was 0.644, a decrease of 0.025. The open interest was 412,397 lots, a decrease of 195 lots, and the open interest PCR was 0.818, a decrease of 0.001 [9]. - For soybean meal options, the trading volume was 344,631 lots, an increase of 34,379 lots. The trading volume PCR was 0.966, an increase of 0.032. The open interest was 1,035,482 lots, an increase of 5,011 lots, and the open interest PCR was 0.711, a decrease of 0.012 [9]. 3.3 Option Volatility Situation - For corn options, the option weighted implied volatility was 11.67%, an increase of 1.73 percentage points with a change rate of 17.43%. The 30 - day historical volatility was 7.70%, and the 30 - day volatility quantile was 0.04 [18]. - For soybean meal options, the option weighted implied volatility was 22.12%, an increase of 4.83 percentage points with a change rate of 27.91%. The 30 - day historical volatility was 10.81%, and the 30 - day volatility quantile was 0.00 [18].

Group 1: Macro and Index Futures - The stock index futures market has shown certain volatility recently, with the main contracts rising to varying degrees. The trading volume and open interest have increased, indicating rising attention to small and medium - cap index products. However, the basis is generally at a discount, and the market is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term. It is advisable to hold a light position and make low - level layouts [2]. Group 2: Crude Oil - The escalation of the Middle East situation has led to concerns about oil supply disruptions and driven up oil prices. Fundamentally, the approaching summer peak season and declining US inventories support price increases, but in the medium - term, the reaction of the Middle East situation and the outcome of the US - Iran nuclear agreement negotiation are crucial. OPEC+ plans to increase production in July. WTI should pay attention to the pressure around $78 per barrel, and in the long - term, the upside of oil prices is limited without major geopolitical impacts on supply [3]. Group 3: Gold - The Middle East conflict has broken the consolidation of international gold prices. On June 13, spot gold prices soared by 1.7% intraday, approaching the April high. Investors should pay attention to geopolitical situations, the Fed's FOMC meeting in July, and the US - EU tariff negotiation deadline. Gold prices may face technical corrections [4][5]. Group 4: Silver - Affected by the Middle East situation, silver prices rose but were restricted by industrial attributes. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's silver futures warehouse receipts decreased, and trade policy uncertainties suppressed industrial demand. Sprott's silver trust received a net inflow of $500 million. Silver prices are supported by geopolitical risks but may face technical overbought corrections. Attention should be paid to Iran's retaliatory actions, the Fed's FOMC meeting, and the US - EU tariff negotiation [6]. Group 5: Chemicals PTA - The price of PTA is supported by the rising cost of crude oil due to the Middle East situation, but the upside is limited. In June, PTA device maintenance and restart were concurrent, with an overall operating rate of 83.25%. The polyester and textile industries are in the off - season, and the market lacks positive stimuli. PTA supply and demand are in a tight balance, and it may fluctuate with the cost side in the short term [7]. Ethylene Glycol - The supply of ethylene glycol has increased slightly, with an overall operating load of 55.07%. The inventory in East China's main ports has decreased. The demand side is weak, and it may fluctuate with the cost side in the short term [8]. PVC - The supply of PVC has decreased slightly, and the demand from downstream enterprises has not improved significantly. The social inventory has decreased. The futures price is affected by market sentiment and may oscillate at a low level due to weak fundamentals [9][10]. PP - The supply of PP has increased, with the average capacity utilization rate rising to 78.64%. The demand from downstream industries has decreased slightly, and the inventory has decreased. The futures price may oscillate at a low level due to weak demand [11][12]. Plastic - The supply of plastic has increased, with the production enterprise capacity utilization rate rising to 79.17%. The demand from downstream industries has decreased, and the inventory has decreased. The futures price may oscillate in the short term due to weak fundamentals [13]. Soda Ash - The supply of soda ash has increased, with the overall operating rate rising to 84.9%. The factory inventory has increased, and the social inventory has decreased. The demand is average, and the futures price may continue to oscillate at the bottom in the short term [14]. Glass - The supply of glass has remained relatively stable, with a slight decrease in weekly output. The inventory has decreased slightly, but the pressure during the rainy season cannot be ignored. The demand is weak, and the futures price may oscillate weakly in the short term [15][16]. Rubber - The price of rubber is affected by the repeated trade war situation and the oversupply fundamentals. The domestic and Southeast Asian production areas are in the harvest season, and the supply is abundant. The downstream tire operating rate has decreased. Rubber may show a pattern of slow rise and sharp fall under weak fundamentals [17]. Methanol - The spot price of methanol has decreased, while the futures price has increased. The port inventory has increased, and the supply pressure is high. The demand from the MTO device has recovered, but the traditional downstream demand is in the off - season. The futures price may oscillate strongly, and attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation speed and the impact of the Middle East situation on oil prices [18]. Group 6: Agricultural Products Corn - The USDA's June report has limited positive support. Domestically, the corn market is in the transition period between old and new grains, with a potential shortage of supply. Wheat may replace corn in the feed field, and weather may affect prices. The downstream demand is weak. Corn may oscillate between 2300 - 2400 yuan per ton in the short term [19]. Peanut - In the long - term, the domestic peanut planting area is expected to increase in 2025. Currently, the market is in the inventory consumption period, with low inventory levels. The demand is in the off - season, and the price may be pushed up by restocking demand. The short - term price may weaken, and attention should be paid to the support at 8200 yuan per ton [20]. Cotton - The US cotton planting and budding rates are slightly slower than in previous years. In the long - term, the cotton supply is expected to be abundant, and the price may remain low. Currently, the import is low, and the commercial inventory is lower than usual, providing support. The downstream textile market is in the off - season, and the demand is weak. Cotton may oscillate strongly in the short term [21]. Pig - The government's reserve release has sent a positive signal, but the market supply is sufficient, and the consumer demand is weak. The futures contract 2509 should pay attention to whether it can break through the upper pressure level of 14000, and the pig slaughter situation needs continuous attention [22]. Egg - The supply of eggs is sufficient due to high laying - hen inventory. The demand is weak due to difficult storage in hot and humid weather. The current futures price is undervalued, and it is recommended to wait and see [23]. Soybean No. 2 - The market has digested the positive impact of the China - US trade talks. The USDA's June report is neutral. The US soybean planting is progressing smoothly, and the Brazilian soybean is in the peak export season. It may oscillate in the short term [24][25]. Soybean Meal - The global geopolitical situation is unstable. The market has digested the China - US trade talks. The US soybean planting is good, and the Brazilian soybean is in the export peak. Domestically, the supply pressure of soybean meal is increasing, and the downstream demand is weak. It may oscillate in the short term [26]. Soybean Oil - The international oil price increase has driven up the domestic soybean oil market. The US soybean planting is progressing well, and the Brazilian soybean is in the export peak. Domestically, the oil - mill operating rate is high, and the demand is in the off - season. The inventory pressure is increasing. It may oscillate strongly in the short term [27]. Group 7: Metals Shanghai Copper - The complexity of the 2025 interest - rate cut path, global tariff conflicts, and the Middle East risk may affect market sentiment. Domestically, policy support is strong. The copper market is in a stage of resonance, and it is advisable to hold for now, with the defense line moved to the lower neckline of the island pattern [28]. Shanghai Aluminum - The macro - sentiment is boosted by the China - US economic and trade consultation and the US interest - rate cut expectation. The supply of electrolytic aluminum is stable, and the demand is in the off - season. The price may oscillate within a range [29][30]. Alumina - The supply of alumina is sufficient, and the demand is mainly for rigid needs. The inventory has increased slightly. The price is under pressure, and the futures contract 2509 may show a weak adjustment trend [31]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - The cost of cast aluminum alloy is supported by the tight scrap - aluminum market, but the supply is excessive. The demand from the new - energy vehicle industry may slow down in the second half of the year. The inventory is relatively high, and the futures contract 2511 may operate weakly [32]. Lithium Carbonate - The raw - material prices in the lithium industry chain have stabilized, and the supply is stable with a structural adjustment. The demand is weak. The market may continue to oscillate at the bottom in the short term, and it is recommended that conservative investors wait and see, while aggressive investors can conduct range operations [33]. Industrial Silicon - The supply of industrial silicon has increased slightly, and the demand is weak. The inventory digestion is slow, and the price is under pressure. Aggressive investors can short at high prices [34]. Polysilicon - The supply of polysilicon is stable, and the demand is weak overall. The export volume has decreased. The market supply - demand contradiction is still prominent, and the futures contract 2507 may oscillate, with attention paid to the previous low - point support [35]. Group 8: Black Metals Stainless Steel - The technical trend of stainless steel may shift from a one - sided decline to a low - level oscillation. The cost support is weak, the supply pressure remains, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see [36]. Rebar - The rebar futures may shift from a resistive decline to an oscillation under a high basis. The cost is stable, the demand is in the off - season, and the inventory is low. It is recommended to take a light - position, low - level, long - biased approach in the short term [37]. Hot - Rolled Coil - The technical trend of hot - rolled coil is stabilizing. The cost is stable, the apparent demand has recovered, and the inventory is low. It is recommended to take a light - position, low - level, long - biased approach in the short term [38]. Iron Ore - The supply of iron ore has increased, and the demand has decreased slightly. The port inventory is still at a relatively high level, and the inventory pressure is emerging. The market sentiment is boosted by the easing of China - US tariffs, but the export sustainability is uncertain. The futures contract 2509 may oscillate in the short term, and attention should be paid to the inventory digestion speed and the steel - mill restart rhythm [39][40]. Coal Mine - The supply of coking coal is expected to contract due to production accidents and new regulations. The demand for coking coal and coke is weak. The futures contracts of coking coal and coke may oscillate recently, and attention should be paid to the steel - mill inventory digestion and policy implementation [41].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided in the reports. Core Views - In the stock index market, investors can focus on hedging and arbitrage opportunities arising from short - to medium - term fluctuations, and pay close attention to macroeconomic data and policy trends [4]. - For crude oil, the WTI main contract should be watched around the next resistance level of $70 per barrel. In the long - term, without major geopolitical impacts on supply, the upside for crude oil is limited [5]. - Gold price is in a range - bound pattern. Short - term fluctuations depend on the Fed's policy signals and geopolitical situations in the Middle East [7]. - Silver prices are highly volatile. Investors should be cautious of high - level pullbacks and focus on policy signals, geopolitical trends, and the divergence between speculation and fundamentals [8]. - For PTA, it may run with a short - term downward bias [9]. - Ethylene glycol prices may be under pressure and fluctuate in the short term [10]. - PVC futures prices will likely oscillate at low levels due to weak fundamentals [11]. - PP futures prices may oscillate at low levels due to weak demand [13]. - Plastic futures prices may fluctuate in the short term due to weak fundamentals [14]. - Soda ash futures are expected to continue bottom - range oscillations in the short term [16]. - Glass futures are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [17]. - Rubber prices are mainly weak, but there is an expectation of a rebound after negative factors are realized [18]. - Methanol futures prices will oscillate in a short - term range, and the risk of continuous inventory accumulation should be watched [19]. - Corn futures will mainly oscillate between 2300 - 2400 yuan/ton in the short term [21]. - Peanut futures prices will adjust weakly in the short term [22]. - Cotton futures prices will run strongly in a short - term range [23]. - Live hog futures will oscillate weakly [24]. - It is recommended to wait and see for egg futures for now [25]. - Soybean No. 2 futures will likely oscillate in a short - term range [26]. - Soybean meal futures will likely oscillate in a short - term range [27]. - Soybean oil futures will likely oscillate in a short - term range [28]. - Rapeseed meal futures' 2509 contract performance at the previous high - price platform should be watched [29]. - Rapeseed oil futures' 2509 contract will likely oscillate in a short - term range [30]. - For copper, it is recommended to relieve defenses at high prices based on the island - shaped technical pattern [31]. - Shanghai aluminum futures' 2507 contract will likely oscillate in a range [32]. - Alumina futures' 2509 contract shows a weak adjustment trend [33]. - Cast aluminum alloy futures' 2511 contract will likely run strongly [34]. - For lithium carbonate, conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive ones can operate within a range [36]. - Industrial silicon futures' 2507 contract will oscillate strongly at the bottom [37]. - Polysilicon futures' 2507 contract will mainly oscillate, and the support at previous lows should be watched [37]. - Stainless steel futures are in a wide - range low - level oscillation, and it is recommended to wait and see [38]. - Rebar futures can be treated with a light - position, low - buying strategy in the short term [40]. - Hot - rolled coil futures can be treated with a light - position, low - buying strategy [41]. - Iron ore futures' 2509 contract will likely maintain an oscillating pattern in the short term [42]. - Coking coal and coke futures will mainly oscillate recently, and attention should be paid to steel mills' inventory destocking and policy implementation [42]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Stock Index - Market analysis: Sino - US economic and trade consultations have reached a principle framework, the US May CPI is lower than expected, and China's May PPI remains low. The market shows a divergence in the inter - term structure of stock index futures [3]. - Reference view: Investors can focus on short - to medium - term hedging and arbitrage opportunities, and pay attention to macroeconomic data and policy trends [4]. Crude Oil - Macro and geopolitics: The Sino - US second - round negotiation "reached a framework agreement in principle", and the oil price broke through the key level of $65 per barrel [5]. - Market analysis: OPEC has significantly lowered future global demand growth, and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have increased supply uncertainty [5]. - Reference view: Watch the next resistance level of $70 per barrel, and the upside is limited in the long - term without major geopolitical impacts [5]. Gold - Macro and geopolitical drivers: The US May CPI data was lower than expected, increasing the expectation of a Fed rate cut. Geopolitical risks in the Middle East boosted the safe - haven demand for gold [7]. - Market performance: Gold price is in a range - bound pattern [7]. - Operation suggestion: Pay attention to the Fed's policy signals and geopolitical situations in the Middle East [7]. Silver - Market price: The international spot silver price fell on June 12, and the gold - silver ratio rose [8]. - Market analysis: Weak inflation and smooth trade negotiations reduced safe - haven demand, and the price increase was mainly driven by futures speculation [8]. - Operation suggestion: Be cautious of high - level pullbacks and focus on policy signals, geopolitical trends, and the divergence between speculation and fundamentals [8]. Chemicals PTA - Spot information: The East China spot price increased, with a discount [9]. - Market analysis: Oil price fluctuations affect costs, the overall PTA operating rate increased, and the inventory decreased. The polyester factory load decreased, and textile orders were weak [9]. - Reference view: It may run with a short - term downward bias [9]. Ethylene Glycol - Spot information: The East China spot price remained unchanged, with a positive basis [10]. - Market analysis: The supply decreased slightly, the demand was suppressed by weak terminal orders, and the inventory increased [10]. - Reference view: Prices may be under pressure and fluctuate in the short term [10]. PVC - Spot information: The spot prices in East China remained unchanged [11]. - Market analysis: The production capacity utilization rate increased, downstream demand was mainly for rigid needs, and the social inventory decreased [11]. - Reference view: Futures prices will likely oscillate at low levels due to weak fundamentals [11]. PP - Spot market: Spot prices in different regions showed slight changes [12]. - Market analysis: The supply increased, demand entered the off - season, and the production enterprise inventory increased [12]. - Reference view: Futures prices may oscillate at low levels due to weak demand [13]. Plastic - Spot market: Spot prices in different regions increased slightly [14]. - Market analysis: The supply capacity utilization rate increased, the downstream average operating rate changed slightly, and the inventory increased [14]. - Reference view: Futures prices may fluctuate in the short term due to weak fundamentals [14]. Soda Ash - Spot information: The mainstream prices in different regions remained unchanged [15]. - Market analysis: The supply increased, the inventory increased slightly, and the demand was average [15]. - Reference view: Futures are expected to continue bottom - range oscillations in the short term [16]. Glass - Spot information: The market prices in different regions remained unchanged [17]. - Market analysis: The supply decreased slightly, the inventory decreased slightly, and the demand was weak [17]. - Reference view: Futures are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [17]. Rubber - Market price: The prices of different types of rubber and raw materials are provided [18]. - Market analysis: The Sino - US trade situation and oversupply have dragged down the price, and the downstream tire operating rate decreased [18]. - Reference view: Pay attention to the downstream operating rate, and the price shows a pattern of slow rises and sharp falls under weak fundamentals [18]. Methanol - Spot information: The East China spot price decreased [19]. - Market analysis: The futures price rose slightly, the port inventory increased, the supply pressure continued, and the demand was weak [19]. - Reference view: Futures prices will oscillate in a short - term range, and the risk of continuous inventory accumulation should be watched [19]. Agricultural Products Corn - Spot information: Corn purchase prices in different regions are provided [20]. - Market analysis: Favorable weather in the US and concerns about imports, tight domestic supply in the short term, and weak downstream demand [21]. - Reference view: Futures will mainly oscillate between 2300 - 2400 yuan/ton in the short term [21]. Peanut - Spot price: Peanut prices in different regions are provided [22]. - Market analysis: The expected increase in planting area in 2025, current low inventory, and weak supply and demand [22]. - Reference view: Futures prices will adjust weakly in the short term [22]. Cotton - Spot information: The domestic cotton spot price index and Xinjiang arrival price are provided [23]. - Market analysis: Sino - US relations have improved, long - term supply is expected to be loose, and short - term inventory is low with weak downstream demand [23]. - Reference view: Cotton futures prices will run strongly in a short - term range [23]. Live Hog - Spot market: The average price of live hogs in major production and sales areas increased [24]. - Market analysis: Support from the breeding side and weak demand [24]. - Reference view: Futures will oscillate weakly [24]. Egg - Spot market: The average egg price in the main production areas decreased [25]. - Market analysis: Sufficient supply and weak demand [25]. - Reference view: It is recommended to wait and see for now [25]. Soybean No. 2 - Spot information: Import costs of soybeans from different countries are provided [26]. - Market analysis: The market has digested the Sino - US trade talks, good weather in the US, and a peak in Brazilian soybean exports [26]. - Reference view: Futures will likely oscillate in a short - term range [26]. Soybean Meal - Spot information: Spot prices in different regions are provided [27]. - Market analysis: Uncertain US tariff policies, international factors, and domestic supply pressure with weak demand [27]. - Reference view: Futures will likely oscillate in a short - term range [27]. Soybean Oil - Spot information: Spot prices in different regions are provided [28]. - Market analysis: Increased supply pressure abroad, weak international oil prices, and increased domestic supply with weak demand [28]. - Reference view: Futures will likely oscillate in a short - term range [28]. Rapeseed Meal - Spot market: The price of rapeseed meal in Dongguan increased [29]. - Market analysis: Sufficient supply in the near - term and tight in the far - term, and weak downstream demand [29]. - Reference view: Watch the performance of the 2509 contract at the previous high - price platform [29]. Rapeseed Oil - Spot market: The price of rapeseed oil in Dongguan increased [30]. - Market analysis: Sufficient supply in the near - term and tight in the far - term, neutral demand, and high inventory [30]. - Reference view: The 2509 contract will likely oscillate in a short - term range [30]. Metals Copper - Spot information: The price of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper increased [31]. - Market analysis: Complex US interest - rate cut expectations, global tariff issues, and domestic policy support. Raw material problems and inventory declines [31]. - Reference view: It is recommended to relieve defenses at high prices based on the island - shaped technical pattern [31]. Shanghai Aluminum - Spot information: The Shanghai spot aluminum price increased [32]. - Market analysis: Stable supply, weakening demand in the off - season, and inventory reduction [32]. - Reference view: The 2507 contract will likely oscillate in a range [32]. Alumina - Spot information: The national average price of alumina decreased [33]. - Market analysis: Sufficient supply, increased inventory, and weak demand [33]. - Reference view: The 2509 contract shows a weak adjustment trend [33]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Spot information: The national and East China spot prices of cast aluminum alloy increased [34]. - Market analysis: Cost support, supply surplus, and weakening demand in the off - season [34]. - Reference view: The 2511 contract will likely run strongly [34]. Lithium Carbonate - Spot information: The prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased [36]. - Market analysis: Stabilizing upstream raw materials, stable supply, and weak demand [36]. - Reference view: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive ones can operate within a range [36]. Industrial Silicon - Spot information: The prices of different grades of industrial silicon remained unchanged [37]. - Market analysis: Slight increase in supply, weak demand, and slow inventory digestion [37]. - Reference view: The 2507 contract will oscillate strongly at the bottom [37]. Polysilicon - Spot information: The prices of different types of polysilicon remained unchanged [37]. - Market analysis: Stable supply, weak and differentiated demand, and weak overseas demand [37]. - Reference view: The 2507 contract will mainly oscillate, and the support at previous lows should be watched [37]. Black Metals Stainless Steel - Spot information: The price of cold - rolled stainless steel coil remained unchanged [38]. - Market analysis: Weak cost support, high supply pressure, and weak demand [38]. - Reference view: Low - level wide - range oscillation, wait and see [38]. Rebar - Spot information: The Shanghai rebar price decreased [39]. - Market analysis: Stabilizing raw materials, low inventory, and weak demand in the off - season [40]. - Reference view: Treat with a light - position, low - buying strategy in the short term [40]. Hot - Rolled Coil - Spot information: The Shanghai hot - rolled coil price remained unchanged [41]. - Market analysis: Stabilizing raw materials, low inventory, and rising apparent demand [41]. - Reference view: Treat with a light - position, low - buying strategy [41]. Iron Ore - Spot information: The prices of iron ore indexes and futures are provided [41]. - Market analysis: Increased supply, decreased demand, and high inventory pressure [41]. - Reference view: The 2509 contract will likely maintain an oscillating pattern in the short term [42]. Coking Coal and Coke - Spot information: The prices of coking coal and coke remained unchanged [42]. - Market analysis: Supply contraction expectation for coking coal, weakening demand for both coking coal and coke [42]. - Operation suggestion: Mainly oscillate recently, pay attention to steel mills' inventory destocking and policy implementation [42].

安粮期货期权数据报告 商品期权数据研报 2025 年 6 月 12 日 玉米期价小幅回落，期权隐波小幅下降 豆粕期价持续上涨，期权隐波保持稳定 内容摘要 玉米期价小幅回落，期货主力合约 C2507 报 收于 2372 元/吨。玉米期权成交 81334 手，持仓 量为 406897 手，成交量 PCR 为 0.603，今日玉 米期权成交量最高的合约为 C2507 合约，其占总 成交量比例为 71%左右。期权加权隐含波动率为 10.22%,30 日历史波动率为 7.93%，期权隐波小 幅下降。 客服热线： 400—626—9988 网站地址：www.alqh.com 1 / 5 豆粕期价持续上涨，期货主力合约 M2509 报 收于 3049 元/吨。豆粕期权成交 444073 手，持 仓量为 1011884 手，成交量 PCR 为 0.900，目前 成交量集中在虚值期权。期权加权隐含波动率 为 17.12%，30 日历史波动率为 11.94%,期权隐 波保持稳定。 安粮期货研究所 期权组 TEL:0551-62879960 张莎 期货从业资格号： F03088817 投资咨询证号： Z0019577 总部地址：合 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - Global market shows a differentiated pattern, with the Fed's rate - cut expectations constrained by inflation resilience and the ECB hinting at the end of the easing cycle. The equity market is supported by loose funds, but external disturbances and volume - energy sustainability should be watched [3]. - Crude oil may oscillate strongly in the short - term, but its upside is limited in the long - term without major geopolitical impacts on supply [4]. - Gold is expected to remain in a high - level oscillation, and investors should pay attention to US CPI, PPI data, and the Fed's interest - rate meeting [5][6]. - Silver will maintain a high - level oscillation, and US inflation data will affect its short - term direction [7]. - Most chemical products are expected to have a weak or bearish short - term trend, with supply - demand contradictions and inventory changes being important influencing factors [8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16]. - Rubber may have a weak rebound after the short - term negative factors are realized, but it is still affected by the oversupply situation [17][18]. - Methanol's futures price is in an oscillation range, and the progress of Sino - US negotiations and macro sentiment should be watched [19]. - Agricultural products show different trends. Corn may oscillate in the short - term, peanuts may decline slightly but have limited downside, cotton may be strong in the short - term, and the prices of other agricultural products are also affected by supply - demand and seasonal factors [20][21][22][23][24][25][26][27][28][29][30][31]. - Metal prices have different trends. Copper may touch the bubble price line, aluminum may oscillate in a range, alumina shows a weak adjustment, and other metals are also affected by factors such as cost, supply - demand, and global economic situation [32][33][34][35][36][37][38][39][40]. - Black metal products' prices also vary. Stainless steel may oscillate at a low level, and steel products like rebar and hot - rolled coil can be considered for light - position long positions at low prices, while iron ore and coal may oscillate in the short - term [41][42][43][44][45][46] Summary by Industry Macro - Index - Market analysis: Global markets are differentiated. The Fed's rate - cut expectations are constrained, and the ECB hints at the end of the easing cycle. The central bank maintains a "broad credit, stable currency" policy. The equity market is supported by loose funds, with capital flowing to non - banking finance and technology sectors. Index futures show short - covering and a decline in the PCR indicator [3]. - Reference view: Pay attention to Sino - US negotiations and the Fed's policy implementation. Short - term holding along the 5 - day moving average is advisable. Be wary of the risk of insufficient volume energy [3]. Crude Oil - Macro and geopolitics: The second - round Sino - US negotiations reach a "framework agreement in principle," and the oil price may oscillate strongly. Focus on the key level of $65 per barrel for WTI [4]. - Market analysis: OPEC lowers global demand growth forecasts, and US policies cause concerns about demand. Although US crude oil inventories decline, refined product inventories increase. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East increase supply uncertainty, and OPEC+ plans to increase production [4]. - Reference view: Watch whether WTI can break through $65 per barrel in the short - term. In the long - term, the upside is limited without major geopolitical impacts [4]. Gold - Macro and geopolitics: US economic resilience pressures short - term gold prices, but multiple factors support it in the long - term. Policy uncertainty and geopolitical risks limit the downside space, and the Fed's policy also affects the price [5]. - Market analysis: Shanghai Gold Exchange's gold futures warehouse receipts are stable with a slight increase. The spot price has a discount compared to the futures price [6]. - Operation suggestion: Gold is expected to oscillate. Investors should watch US CPI, PPI data, and the Fed's interest - rate meeting [6]. Silver - Market price: On June 11, the international spot silver price oscillated narrowly [7]. - Market analysis: Shanghai Futures Exchange's silver futures warehouse receipts increased significantly. Global economic growth expectations are lowered, and trade tensions ease, reducing the safe - haven demand for silver [7]. - Operation suggestion: Silver will maintain a high - level oscillation. Pay attention to US inflation data [7]. Chemicals PTA - Spot information: The East China spot price decreased, and the basis is positive [8]. - Market analysis: Oil price fluctuations affect PTA costs. PTA device maintenance and restart coexist, with an overall increase in the operating rate and a decrease in inventory days. Polyester and textile loads decline, and weak orders may intensify supply - demand contradictions [8]. - Reference view: It may oscillate bearishly in the short - term [8]. Ethylene Glycol - Spot information: The East China spot price is flat, and the basis is positive [9]. - Market analysis: The supply side shows a slight decline in the overall operating rate and an increase in coal - based production. Demand is weak due to the off - season. Inventories in the East China main port increase, and future arrivals may limit the upside [9]. - Reference view: The price may be under pressure and oscillate in the short - term [9]. PVC - Spot information: The East China 5 - type PVC spot price increased, and the ethylene - calcium price difference decreased [10][11]. - Market analysis: The production capacity utilization rate increased, but downstream demand is still weak. Inventories decreased. The futures price oscillated at a low level without significant fundamental improvement [10][11]. - Reference view: The fundamentals are weak, and the futures price will oscillate at a low level [11]. PP - Spot market: The spot prices in different regions fluctuate slightly [12]. - Market analysis: The production capacity utilization rate increased, and production volume rose. Demand is in the off - season, and downstream orders decreased. Inventories of production enterprises increased. The futures price oscillated at a low level [12]. - Reference view: Demand is weak, and the futures price may oscillate at a low level [13]. Plastic - Spot market: The spot prices in different regions have different changes [14]. - Market analysis: The production capacity utilization rate increased slightly. The downstream average operating rate changed little. Inventories of production enterprises increased. The futures price may oscillate [14]. - Reference view: The fundamentals are weak, and the futures price may oscillate in the short - term [14]. Soda Ash - Spot information: The heavy - soda prices in different regions are stable [15]. - Market analysis: The overall operating rate and production volume increased. Factory inventories increased slightly, and social inventories decreased. Demand is average, and the market lacks new drivers [15]. - Reference view: The futures price is expected to continue to oscillate at the bottom in the short - term [15]. Glass - Spot information: The 5mm glass prices in different regions are stable [16]. - Market analysis: The operating rate and production volume decreased slightly. Inventories increased, and demand is weak. The futures price may oscillate weakly in the short - term [16]. - Reference view: The futures price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term [16]. Rubber - Market price: The prices of different types of rubber and raw materials are provided [17]. - Market analysis: Sino - US trade negotiations and typhoons affect the price. The supply is abundant as domestic and Southeast Asian rubber trees are in the tapping season. Downstream tire operating rates decline, and trade - war concerns suppress demand, but there is a rebound expectation after the negative factors are realized [17]. - Reference view: Pay attention to downstream operating rates. It may start a weak rebound after short - term negative factors are realized [18]. Methanol - Spot information: The East China spot price increased, and prices in other regions vary [19]. - Market analysis: The futures price increased slightly. Port inventories increased. Supply pressure is high, and demand from MTO devices recovers, while traditional downstream demand is in the off - season [19]. - Reference view: The futures price is in an oscillation range. Watch Sino - US negotiations and macro sentiment [19]. Agricultural Products Corn - Spot information: Corn purchase prices in different regions are provided [20]. - Market analysis: Good weather in US corn - growing areas and Sino - US trade relations affect imports. The domestic market is in the transition period between old and new grains, with tight supply in the short - term. Wheat substitution and weather are key factors. Downstream demand is weak [20][21]. - Reference view: The corn futures price may oscillate between 2300 - 2400 yuan/ton in the short - term [21]. Peanut - Spot price: Peanut prices in different regions are provided [22]. - Market analysis: The domestic peanut planting area is expected to increase in 2025. The market is in the inventory - consumption period, with low imports and low inventory levels. Demand is in the off - season, but low inventories may support the price [22]. - Reference view: The peanut price may decline slightly in the short - term, but the downside is limited. Band - trading is advisable [22]. Cotton - Spot information: The Chinese cotton spot price index and Xinjiang cotton arrival price are provided [23]. - Market analysis: Sino - US relations ease, boosting the market. In the long - term, cotton supply is expected to be abundant. In the short - term, low imports and low commercial inventories support the price, but downstream demand is weak [23]. - Reference view: The cotton price may be strong in the short - term. Watch whether it can fill the previous gap [23]. Pig - Spot market: The average price of live pigs in major production and sales areas increased slightly [24]. - Market analysis: Farmers resist low - price sales, reducing supply. Demand is weak due to warm weather, and terminal consumption lacks improvement [24]. - Reference view: The live - pig futures price may oscillate weakly. Watch the slaughter situation [24]. Egg - Spot market: The national average egg price is stable [25]. - Market analysis: Farmers' enthusiasm for replenishing chickens decreases, and old - hen culling increases, supporting the price. Demand may increase in the tourism and catering industries during the summer vacation, but the plum - rain season suppresses consumption [25]. - Reference view: The egg futures price is undervalued. It is advisable to wait and see [25]. Rapeseed Meal - Spot market: The rapeseed meal price in Fangchenggang increased [27]. - Market analysis: Domestic and near - term imported rapeseed supplies are abundant, while far - term imports are tight. Demand is weak due to a small price difference with soybean meal and the off - season. Watch Sino - Canadian and Sino - US trade relations [27]. - Reference view: Watch the performance of rapeseed meal futures at the upper pressure level [27]. Rapeseed Oil - Spot market: The rapeseed oil price in Fangchenggang is stable [28]. - Market analysis: Domestic and near - term imported rapeseed supplies are abundant, while far - term imports are tight. Demand is neutral, and inventories may remain high in the short - to - medium - term [28]. - Reference view: The rapeseed oil futures price may oscillate near the platform [28]. Soybean No. 2 - Spot information: Import costs of US, Brazilian, and Argentine soybeans are provided [29]. - Market analysis: Sino - US trade talks boost market confidence. Good weather in US soybean - growing areas and the peak season of Brazilian soybean exports affect the price [29]. - Reference view: The soybean No. 2 futures price may oscillate strongly in the short - term [29]. Soybean Meal - Spot information: Soybean meal prices in different regions are provided [30]. - Market analysis: Pay attention to Sino - US trade talks. Internationally, trade talks boost confidence, and tariffs and weather are key factors. Domestically, oil - mill production is high, and downstream demand is weak, but inventory accumulation is slow [30]. - Reference view: The soybean meal futures price may oscillate strongly in the short - term [30]. Soybean Oil - Spot information: Soybean oil prices in different regions are provided [31]. - Market analysis: Internationally, supply pressure and falling oil prices put pressure on soybean oil. Domestically, oil - mill production is high, and demand is in the off - season, with inventory accumulation pressure increasing [31]. - Reference view: The soybean oil futures price may oscillate in the short - term [31] Metals Copper - Spot information: The price of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper increased, and the import copper ore index also rose [32]. - Market analysis: US economic data reduces recession concerns and rate - cut expectations. Global tariffs and domestic policies affect the market. Raw material issues and inventory changes make the market more complex [33]. - Reference view: The copper price may touch the bubble price line. Consider removing defenses based on signals [33]. Aluminum - Spot information: The Shanghai spot aluminum price increased [34]. - Market analysis: The cost of alumina increases, supporting the theoretical cost of electrolytic aluminum. Supply is expected to be in surplus, and demand is in the off - season. Inventories decline, and the spot market is at a premium, but demand limits the upside [34]. - Reference view: The aluminum futures price may oscillate in a range [34]. Alumina - Spot information: The national average alumina price decreased slightly, and prices in different regions vary [35]. - Market analysis: Sino - US trade talks boost market sentiment. Supply slightly decreases as smelters' profits improve. Demand is mainly for rigid needs, and inventories start to accumulate. The price is under pressure [35]. - Reference view: The alumina futures price shows a weak adjustment trend [35]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Spot information: The national and East China spot prices of cast aluminum alloy are stable [36]. - Market analysis: The high price of scrap aluminum supports the cost. Supply is in surplus as the industry expands. Demand from new - energy vehicles and electronics is resilient but limited by tariffs and the global economy. Inventories are high and may continue to accumulate [36]. - Reference view: The cast aluminum alloy futures price may be strong [37]. Lithium Carbonate - Spot information: The prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate are stable [38]. - Market analysis: The upstream raw - material market shows signs of stabilization, supply is stable but the structure is adjusting, and demand is weak. The price may oscillate at the bottom [38]. - Reference view: Conservative investors can wait and see, while aggressive investors can trade in the range [38]. Industrial Silicon - Spot information: The prices of different grades of industrial silicon are stable [39]. - Market analysis: Supply increases slightly, and demand is weak as downstream industries cut production or have low operating rates. Inventories are digested slowly, and the price is under pressure. Technically, it may rebound [39]. - Reference view: The industrial silicon futures price may oscillate strongly at the bottom [39]. Polysilicon - Spot information: The prices of different types of polysilicon are stable [40]. - Market analysis: Supply shows no obvious contraction, and demand is weak overall, with some differentiation. Exports decline. The market's supply - demand contradiction is not alleviated [40]. - Reference view: The polysilicon futures price may oscillate. Watch the previous low - point support [40] Black Metals Stainless Steel - Spot information: The price of cold - rolled stainless steel coil increased [41]. - Market analysis: Technically, it may change from a one - sided decline to a low - level oscillation. Fundamentally, the raw - material market is quiet, and cost supports the price, but weak demand restricts the upside [41]. - Reference view: It may oscillate widely at a low level. Wait and see for now [41]. Rebar - Spot information: The price of rebar in Shanghai is stable [42]. - Market analysis: Technically, it is stabilizing. Fundamentally, external talks are going well, raw - material prices are stabilizing, costs are dynamic, and demand is in the off - season, but inventories are low and the valuation is low [42][43]. - Reference view: The overall valuation is low. Consider light - position long positions at low prices [43]. Hot - Rolled Coil - Spot information: The price of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai is stable [44]. - Market analysis: Technically, it is stabilizing. Fundamentally, external talks are going well, raw - material prices are stabilizing, costs are dynamic, apparent demand recovers, and inventories are low with a low valuation [44]. - Reference view: The overall valuation is low. Consider light - position long positions at low prices [44]. Iron Ore - Spot information: The iron ore price index and futures price are provided [45]. - Market analysis: Supply pressure eases as global shipments increase and domestic production rises slightly. Demand weakens as steel - mill operating rates decline, but current iron - water production is still high. Port inventories increase, and demand in the off - season is expected to be weak. Sino - US tariff easing boosts sentiment, but steel - billet exports are uncertain. Non - mainstream ore production cuts support the price, but reduced steel - mill profits may suppress demand [45]. - Reference view: The iron ore futures price may oscillate in the short - term. Watch port inventory

宏观 股指 市场分析：当日沪深两市成交额 1.45 万亿元，较前日放量 10.57%。银行、创新药等防御性 板块领涨，而半导体、航天航空等高波动板块承压。上证 50 主力合约 IH2506 持仓量环比下 降 2.82%，短期多空分歧加剧。中证 1000 收盘价接近压力位 6226 左右，若突破需成交量配 合；沪深 300 收盘价接近支撑位 3514 左右，短期反弹动能不足。 参考观点：中证 1000 波动率较高，建议关注 6227 附近压力位突破情况；上证 50 建议结合 持仓量变化判断趋势持续性；沪深 300 波动率处于低位，但成交额占比稳定，可作为中长期 配置参考；中证 1000 与沪深 300 的波动率比值（1.56）接近 2024 年均值（1.62），可关注 均值回归机会。 原油 宏观与地缘：上周五美国非农数据超预期，削弱美联储降息紧迫性，同时中美第二轮谈判， 市场对经贸缓和有一定预期，原油价格或偏强震荡，关注 WTI 主力 65 美元/桶关键位置。 市场分析：基本面看，OPEC 大幅调降未来两年全球需求增速，美国贸易战升级，特朗普政 府政策多变，引发市场对全球需求担忧。库存方面，美原油库存虽然下滑， ...