Report Investment Rating - The report does not mention any investment ratings for the industry. Core Views - **Copper**: Macro factors continue to drive up copper prices, but caution is needed for a potential high - level pullback before the New Year's Day holiday. Last week, copper prices accelerated their upward movement, with SHFE copper reaching the 100,000 - yuan mark and open interest rising to 660,000 contracts. The market liquidity recovered after the yen interest rate hike in late December, pushing up copper prices. However, the pressure on the mid - and downstream industries has been increasing, with the basis and calendar spreads weakening and the social inventory of electrolytic copper rising significantly. The benchmark processing fee for copper concentrate long - term contracts in 2026 is set at $0/ton, much lower than in 2025, which may lead to production cuts and intensify supply shortage expectations. The short - term upward momentum is strong, but the price is at a historical high, and there is a divergence between the domestic industrial pressure (high inventory, weak consumption) and the strong macro expectations. Also, with the approaching New Year's Day holiday, there may be an increasing willingness to close positions, so a high - level pullback risk should be watched out for [5][60]. - **Aluminum**: Macro factors are positive, while industrial factors are negative, leading to high - level oscillations in aluminum prices. Last week, aluminum prices fluctuated with a slight upward trend. The macro environment improved after the yen interest rate hike. On the industrial side, as aluminum prices rose, downstream hesitation increased, and the spot discount remained weak. The expectation of aluminum replacing copper in the home appliance sector provides support for long - term demand. The short - term rise in aluminum prices is largely driven by the strong performance of copper prices, and its own upward momentum is weak, with significant divergence between bulls and bears. Attention can be continuously paid to the support of the 5 - day moving average [6][60]. Summary by Directory 1. Macro Factors - After the yen interest rate hike, market liquidity recovered, the US dollar index showed a weak performance, and copper prices trended upward [10]. 2. Copper 2.1 Quantity and Price Trends - Last week, copper prices accelerated their upward movement, with SHFE copper reaching the 100,000 - yuan mark, and open interest rising to 660,000 contracts, indicating high short - term capital attention and a significant increase in volatility [5][16]. 2.2 Copper Ore Shortage - Last week, the port inventory of copper ore continued to recover from a low level and was approaching the same - period level of previous years. On December 26, Mysteel's port inventory of copper ore was 670,000 tons, a weekly decrease of 10,000 tons. The benchmark processing fee for copper concentrate long - term contracts in 2026 is set at $0/ton and $0 cents/pound, which lays a price support foundation for 2026 from the industrial perspective [25]. 2.3 Electrolytic Copper Inventory Accumulation - On December 25, Mysteel's social inventory of electrolytic copper was 202,200 tons, a weekly increase of 27,700 tons. On December 26, the combined inventory of COMEX and LME was 640,000 tons, a weekly increase of 17,400 tons. The continuous rise in copper prices has significantly suppressed downstream consumption, leading to an increase in inventory [27]. 2.4 Downstream Primary Processing - SMM expects the total output of the copper rod industry in December to decrease by 45,000 tons month - on - month to 1 million tons. In terms of operating rates, the operating rate of electrolytic copper rod enterprises was 65.07%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.58 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 7.53 percentage points. The operating rate of recycled copper rod enterprises was 19.61%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.23 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 16.73 percentage points [29]. 3. Aluminum 3.1 Quantity and Price Trends - Last week, aluminum prices fluctuated with a slight upward trend, and the volatility increased. The macro environment improved after the yen interest rate hike [6]. 3.2 Upstream Industrial Chain - On December 26, the port inventory of bauxite was 2.60207 billion tons, a decrease of 5.93 million tons from the previous week and an increase of 821.07 million tons compared with the same period in 2024. Last week, alumina prices rebounded significantly, driven by the macro improvement, and the profit of electrolytic aluminum plants shrank in the short term as the electrolytic aluminum price oscillated at a high level [45][46]. 3.3 Slowdown in Electrolytic Aluminum Inventory Reduction - On December 25, Mysteel's social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 612,000 tons, an increase of 51,000 tons from the previous week. The overseas inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 527,500 tons, an increase of 1,400 tons from the previous week. The high - level operation of aluminum prices has suppressed downstream consumption, and the domestic inventory has increased significantly [50]. 3.4 Downstream Primary Processing - Last week, the processing fee of aluminum rods decreased significantly, reflecting the suppression of downstream demand by high aluminum prices. On December 25, the inventory of aluminum rods was 96,000 tons, a decrease of 4,700 tons from the previous week, indicating a decrease in downstream operating rates and the start of inventory consumption [55][57]. 4. Conclusion - **Copper**: The short - term upward momentum is strong, but the price is at a historical high, and there is a divergence between the domestic industrial pressure (high inventory, weak consumption) and the strong macro expectations. With the approaching New Year's Day holiday, a high - level pullback risk should be watched out for [5][60]. - **Aluminum**: The short - term rise is largely driven by the strong performance of copper prices, and its own upward momentum is weak, with significant divergence between bulls and bears. Attention can be continuously paid to the support of the 5 - day moving average [6][60].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - **Copper**: On the night of last Friday, the Shanghai copper futures price continued to rise, breaking through the 100,000 RMB mark, and the main contract price once reached 100,200 RMB. In the morning, it opened lower and then rose, followed by high - level volatile trading. In the afternoon, there was an obvious decline in positions and a sharp drop, basically erasing the gains from Friday night. The intraday high dropped by more than 4,000 RMB/ton. With the New Year's Day holiday approaching and the short - term large increase in copper prices, the willingness of funds to take profits is strong. Investors are advised to pay attention to the risk of continuous high - level decline and can focus on the support of the 5 - day and 10 - day moving averages [6] - **Aluminum**: The aluminum price rose and then fell today, and the position volume declined along with the price in the afternoon. At the macro level, non - ferrous metals and precious metals collectively dropped in the afternoon, and the willingness of funds to take profits before the New Year's Day holiday is strong. Compared with copper, aluminum is more restricted by the industry. At the industrial level, high aluminum prices suppress downstream consumption, and the industry is passively following. The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum has increased. Technically, pay attention to the support of the 5 - day moving average [7] - **Nickel**: The nickel price soared last Friday, and the main contract price once approached the 130,000 RMB mark. It dropped in the afternoon today, and the position volume decreased slightly. At the macro level, non - ferrous metals and precious metals collectively dropped in the afternoon, and the willingness of funds to take profits before the New Year's Day holiday is strong. At the industrial level, the industrial policy disturbances in Indonesia have promoted the rise of nickel prices. In the short term, as the main nickel contract price has risen to the 130,000 RMB mark, rebounding nearly 20,000 RMB/ton from the low level, the willingness of short - term bulls to take profits is strong, and the game between long and short positions has intensified. Continuously pay attention to the pressure at the 130,000 RMB mark [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: Looking ahead to tomorrow, as the year - end approaches, the trading activity of both buyers and sellers has decreased. Under the pressure of the 100,000 RMB copper price, the downstream rigid - demand procurement has also significantly decreased, and the situation of large discounts in the Shanghai copper spot market is difficult to change. On December 29, the social inventory of electrolytic copper of Mysteel was 224,300 tons, an increase of 22,100 tons compared with the 25th and an increase of 44,300 tons compared with the 22nd [10] - **Aluminum**: On December 29, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum of Mysteel was 638,000 tons, an increase of 26,000 tons compared with the 25th and an increase of 50,000 tons compared with the 22nd [10] - **Nickel**: On December 29, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 127,700 - 135,700 RMB/ton, with an average price of 131,700 RMB/ton, a rise of 2,000 RMB/ton compared with the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium quotation range of Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was 7,200 - 7,200 RMB/ton, with an average premium of 7,200 RMB/ton, a rise of 100 RMB/ton compared with the previous trading day. The spot premium and discount quotation range of domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel was - 200 - 300 RMB/ton [11] 3.2 Related Charts - **Copper**: The report includes charts such as copper basis, copper monthly spread, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper, overseas copper exchange inventory, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, and SHFE warrant inventory [12][13][14] - **Aluminum**: The report includes charts such as aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum, aluminum rod inventory, and Shanghai - London ratio [23][25][27] - **Nickel**: The report includes charts such as nickel basis, nickel monthly spread, LME inventory, SHFE inventory, LME nickel trend, and nickel ore port inventory [35][37][39]

Group 1: Report Core View - Last week, the gold price continued to rise, with New York gold breaking through $4,500 and Shanghai gold breaking through the 1,000-yuan mark. After the meetings of the US and Japanese central banks ended, market liquidity recovered, and the US dollar index remained weak, which was positive for the gold price. In the long run, although the gold price has broken through the late-October high, its overall performance is far inferior to other precious metals and copper, mainly due to the high short-term market risk appetite and the decline in the safe-haven demand for gold. Before the New Year's Day holiday, continuous attention should be paid to the long-short game at the $4,500 mark of New York gold, and beware of the risk of a high-level pullback before the holiday [5][21] Group 2: Market Review 2.1 Weekly Trend - The report presents a chart of the linkage between the US dollar index and COMEX gold futures closing prices [9] 2.2 Indicator Price Changes | Indicator | December 26 | December 19 | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | COMEX Gold | $4,562.00 | $4,368.70 | 4.42% | | COMEX Silver | $79.68 | $67.40 | 18.22% | | SHFE Gold Main Contract | 1,016.30 yuan | 979.90 yuan | 3.71% | | SHFE Silver Main Contract | 18,319.00 yuan | 15,376.00 yuan | 19.14% | | US Dollar Index | 98.03 | 98.72 | -0.69% | | USD/CNH | 7.00 | 7.03 | -0.41% | | 10-Year US Treasury Real Yield | 1.91 | 1.92 | -0.01 | | S&P 500 | 6,929.94 | 6,834.50 | 1.40% | | US Crude Oil Continuous | $56.93 | $56.65 | 0.49% | | COMEX Gold-Silver Ratio | 57.26 | 64.82 | -11.67% | | SHFE Gold-Silver Ratio | 55.48 | 63.73 | -12.95% | | SPDR Gold ETF | 1,071.13 tons | 1,052.54 tons | 18.59 tons | | iShare Gold ETF | 492.64 tons | 491.82 tons | 0.82 tons | [10] Group 3: Liquidity Recovery after Japanese Yen Interest Rate Hike - After the Japanese yen interest rate hike, the market showed a "boot landing" situation, with a significant recovery in short-term liquidity. The US dollar index continued to weaken, falling to the 98 mark, which was positive for the gold price [12] Group 4: Tracking of Other Indicators - Last week, the combined holdings of SPDR and iShares gold ETFs were 1,563.77 tons, an increase of 19.41 tons from the previous week. After the Japanese yen interest rate hike, precious metals generally rose, with silver's increase significantly larger than that of gold, and the gold-silver ratio continued to weaken, dropping below 60 last week [16][18]

期货研究报告 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025 年 12 月 29 日） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 参考观点：震荡偏弱 核心逻辑：国内库存高企，油厂开工率回升加剧库存压力，油厂合同量大幅回落，贸易商滚动补库、 饲料厂按需采购，成交清淡。需求端，终端追涨情绪有限，成交谨慎，市场关注大豆到港及通关政策 传闻。市场情绪推动下，豆粕期价虽迎来止跌反弹，但持续性不强。短期豆粕期价延续近强远弱格局， 期现表现分化，整体低位震荡为主。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月(以前一日夜盘收盘价为基准) 品种 短期 中期 日内 观点参考 核心 ...

宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2025 年 12 月 29 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2602 | 震荡 | 强势 | 震荡 偏强 | 观望 | 流动性恢复利好金价，避险需求 下降利空金价 | | 铜 | 2602 | 震荡 | 强势 | 上涨 | 观望 | 流动性恢复叠加产业强预期推升 铜价 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 核心逻辑：上周金价持续上行，纽约金突破 4500 美元，沪金突破 1000 元关口。周四海外开始圣诞 假期，国内波动下降。拉长时间看，随着美日央行会议相继结束，市场 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information is provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report predicts that the iron ore 2605 contract will experience wide - range fluctuations, with short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends being oscillatory, oscillatory, and oscillatory and weak respectively [1]. - The iron ore futures price is at a high level due to positive commodity sentiment, but the supply - demand pattern is weakening. The overall trend is expected to continue high - level oscillations, and attention should be paid to steel mill production [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For the iron ore 2605 contract, the short - term view is oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the intraday view is oscillatory and weak, with an overall view of wide - range oscillations. The core logic is that positive commodity sentiment keeps the ore price at a high level [1]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - Positive commodity sentiment has led to a high - level operation of iron ore futures prices. However, the supply - demand pattern is weakening, with port inventories rising to a high level, steel mill production stabilizing, and terminal ore consumption weakly stable. Steel mill profitability has limited improvement, and the weak demand pattern is difficult to change, although pre - holiday restocking is a relative positive factor [2]. - Both domestic port arrivals and miner shipments have decreased month - on - month but remain at a high level for the year. Overseas ore supply is active, and overall ore supply remains high despite the contraction of domestic ore supply [2]. - Currently, due to the structural contradiction in the spot market and positive commodity sentiment, iron ore prices are at a high level. However, with weakening demand and high - level supply, the fundamental situation is weak, and the upward driving force is not strong. The subsequent trend is expected to continue high - level oscillations, and attention should be paid to steel mill production [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The domestic thermal coal price has been continuously weakening in December 2025, with the decline exceeding expectations. As of December 25, the FOB price of 5500K thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port was 682 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 37 yuan, and it continued to weaken after falling below 700 yuan/ton. The slump in the coal market is mainly dragged down by unexpectedly weak demand. Under the pattern of stable supply and weak demand, the coal inventory in the industrial chain remains at a high level, and the thermal coal price is running weakly. Subsequent stabilization is expected to wait for the improvement of coal demand in coastal cities and the release of terminal replenishment demand [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Commodity Futures Black Sector - **Variety**: Thermal coal spot - **Intraday View**: No specific intraday view is provided - **Medium - term View**: The reference view is "oscillating". The core logic is that in December, the domestic thermal coal price weakened continuously, and the decline exceeded expectations. The coal market is weak due to unexpectedly weak demand. Under the pattern of stable supply and weak demand, the coal inventory in the industrial chain is high, and the price is weak. Stabilization needs the improvement of coal demand in coastal cities and the release of terminal replenishment demand [4]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For both short - term and medium - term, the views on both coking coal and coke are "oscillation". The intraday views are "oscillation with a slight upward bias". The overall reference view is an "oscillation approach" [1]. - The coking coal market has a neutral and relatively loose supply - demand pattern, but post - New Year downstream winter storage and resumption expectations provide some support, and the continuous decline of thermal coal may trigger new supply adjustment measures [5]. - The coke market has a weak short - term fundamental situation, but the demand - side expectations have improved, and the market is in a stalemate between bulls and bears, with the futures main contract remaining in low - level oscillation [6]. 3. Summary by Variety Coking Coal (JM) - **Production**: As of the week ending December 26, the daily average output of clean coal from 523 coking coal mines nationwide was 740,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 18,000 tons and 20,000 tons lower than the same period last year [5]. - **Import**: As of December 20, the cumulative customs clearance of Mongolian coal at the 288 port was 26,498 vehicles, a 23.0% increase from the high base in November, which suppresses domestic coal prices [5]. - **Supply - demand and Inventory**: Overall supply is stable, demand remains low, the supply - demand pattern is neutral and relatively loose, and coking coal inventories in all industrial chain links have increased [5]. Coke (J) - **Production**: As of the week ending December 26, the combined daily output of coke from all - sample independent coking plants and steel - mill coking plants was 1,094,700 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 200 tons; the daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills nationwide was 2,265,800 tons [6]. - **Supply - demand Situation**: Both supply and demand of coke have stabilized at a low level, and the fundamentals have not improved significantly. The short - term fundamentals are still weak, but demand - side expectations have improved [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - In 2026, China will continue to implement a more proactive fiscal policy, expand fiscal spending, and optimize the government bond tool portfolio [2][14]. - The profit growth rate of large - scale industrial enterprises from January to November has slowed down, but the growth trend since August continues, and new kinetic energy industries are growing rapidly [2][14]. - The prices of domestic precious metals and base metals have risen collectively, with many varieties hitting new highs, while the price of palladium futures has fallen [3]. - The Baltic countries' natural gas reserves are extremely low, which may lead to supply problems during the cold season [9]. - The acquisition of autumn grains this year is at a record - high level, and the grain output has increased, mainly driven by the increase in corn production [10]. - The bond market is expected to remain volatile by the end of the year, and the direction of the market depends on policies and supply [21][22]. - The A - share market is expected to be a volatile market with structural opportunities, and the cycle sector, especially non - ferrous metals, is expected to continue to rise in 2026 [33][35]. Summary by Directory Macro Data Quick View - In Q3 2025, GDP grew by 4.8% year - on - year, down from 5.2% in the previous quarter [1]. - In November 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, up from 49.0% in the previous month but down from 50.3% in the same period last year [1]. - In November 2025, the new social financing scale was 24885.00 billion yuan, compared with 8161.00 billion yuan in the previous month and 23288.00 billion yuan in the same period last year [1]. - In November 2025, CPI increased by 0.7% year - on - year, up from 0.2% in the previous month, and PPI decreased by 2.2% year - on - year, down from - 2.1% in the previous month [1]. - In November 2025, exports increased by 5.9% year - on - year, and imports increased by 1.9% year - on - year [1]. Commodity Investment Reference Comprehensive - The 2026 fiscal work will focus on six key tasks, including boosting consumption, increasing investment in key areas, and promoting employment [2][14]. - From January to November, the total profit of large - scale industrial enterprises was 66268.6 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.1%, but the profit in November decreased by 13.1% year - on - year [2][14]. - On December 26, 30 domestic commodity varieties had positive basis, and 38 had negative basis [3]. - The prices of domestic precious metals and base metals rose, with platinum futures hitting the daily limit, and palladium futures falling [3]. - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange adjusted the price limit and margin standards for platinum and palladium futures during the New Year's Day holiday [3]. - The London silver market is experiencing a severe physical squeeze, and the silver price may continue to rise [4]. Metals - The price of silver has risen sharply, with the international spot silver price breaking through $82 per ounce [5]. - Gold, silver, and platinum prices hit new highs on December 26, supported by geopolitical risks and a weak dollar [5]. - The price of gold jewelry has exceeded 1400 yuan, and the gold recycling market has shown a "polarized" situation [5]. - Several lithium iron phosphate manufacturers have announced production shutdowns for maintenance due to equipment maintenance and cost pressures [6]. - The CME will raise the margin requirements for gold, silver, and lithium futures after the close on December 29 [6]. - The price of silver has increased by 175% this year, and there are concerns about its impact on industrial development and potential price corrections [6]. - As of December 26, the SPDR Gold Trust's holdings increased by 0.27% to 1071.13 tons [7]. Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - Chile's state - owned copper company and a lithium giant will merge their subsidiaries to develop lithium in the Atacama Salt Flats [8]. Energy and Chemicals - As of December 28, Xinjiang Oilfield's carbon dioxide injection exceeded 1 million tons, marking a key step in the large - scale application of CCUS technology [9]. - The natural gas reserves in the Baltic countries are extremely low, which may cause supply problems during the cold season [9]. Agricultural Products - As of now, the purchase of autumn grains has exceeded 200 million tons, 32 million tons more than the same period last year [10]. - China's grain output in 2025 was 1.43 trillion catties, a year - on - year increase of 1.2%, mainly driven by corn production [10]. - The South American soybean growing area has received good rainfall, which is beneficial to the growth of sown soybeans. The production of Malaysian palm oil from December 1 - 25 decreased by 9.12% month - on - month, and exports increased by 1.6% month - on - month [11]. - The prices of rice and eggs in Japan have reached record highs [11]. Financial News Compilation Open Market - This week, 6227 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature in the central bank's open market [12]. - On December 26, the Ministry of Finance and the central bank conducted treasury cash management commercial bank time - deposit tenders, with a total winning amount of 210 billion yuan [12]. - On December 26, the central bank conducted 930 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 368 billion yuan [12]. Important News - The 2026 National Two Sessions will be held in March, and the review of the "15th Five - Year Plan" draft is on the agenda of the National People's Congress [13][15]. - The National People's Congress Standing Committee passed a new version of the Foreign Trade Law, which will come into effect on March 1, 2026 [15]. - The central bank released the "China Financial Stability Report (2025)", aiming to maintain financial stability and create a suitable monetary and financial environment [17]. - The central bank will pay close attention to the real estate market and promote its stable and healthy development [18]. - The China National Venture Capital Guidance Fund has been officially launched, focusing on early - stage projects in key areas [18]. - Hainan Free Trade Port has launched the full - island customs closure operation, and relevant policies have achieved initial results [18]. - The central bank and the foreign exchange administration will promote cross - border corporate currency integration funds pool business nationwide [19]. - Hong Kong's economy is expected to maintain a good momentum in 2026 [19]. - The issuance scale of science and technology innovation bonds this year has reached 2.26 trillion yuan [19]. - The first industrial plant REITs project in the inter - institutional market has been listed [19]. - Vanke's second 3.7 billion yuan bond extension plan has not been approved [20]. Bond Market Summary - The inter - bank bond market has warmed up, with most interest - rate bond yields falling and treasury bond futures rising [21]. - In the exchange bond market, Vanke bonds generally rose, while industrial and financial bonds generally fell [22]. - The CSI Convertible Bond Index fell 0.04%, and the Wande Convertible Bond Equal - Weighted Index fell 0.23% [22]. - Most money market interest rates declined, and short - term Shibor rates mostly rose [23]. - Most bank - to - bank repurchase fixed - rate and silver - silver repurchase fixed - rate bonds fell [23][24]. - Most US Treasury yields fell, except for the 30 - year yield [24][25]. Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.0085, down 19 points from the previous trading day [26]. - The US dollar index rose 0.12%, and major non - US currencies showed mixed performance [26]. Research Report Highlights - In 2025, the bond market was a typical "sideways market", and investors faced challenges in a low - interest - rate environment [27]. - The steel industry may see continued improvement in supply and demand in 2026, and steel bond investment should focus on central and state - owned enterprises [27]. - Since mid - November, long - term bonds, especially ultra - long - term bonds, have been significantly adjusted, possibly due to banks' end - of - year duration constraints [28]. - The risk of systemic default of weak - region urban investment bonds in 2027 is limited, but there are valuation and liquidity risks [29]. - The issuance scale and duration of government bonds have increased this year, and the supply pressure on long - term bonds will remain high in 2026 [29]. - In the medium - to - long - term, the RMB may appreciate moderately in 2026, but one - sided bets should be avoided [29]. - Ultra - long - term bonds have certain allocation value in the long run [30]. Today's Reminders - On December 29, 210 bonds will be listed, 61 bonds will be issued, and 459 bonds will pay principal and interest [31][32]. Stock Market News - In the last three trading days of 2025, the A - share market is expected to be a volatile market with structural opportunities [33]. - In 2025, there were 528 double - digit stocks in the A - share market, mainly AI and merger - concept stocks [33]. - As of December 26, the highest return of public active equity funds reached 236.88%, and 72 funds had returns exceeding 100% [34]. - The A - share private placement market has recovered in 2025, with public and private funds investing over 41 billion yuan and achieving high floating profit ratios [34]. - Since 2025, the enthusiasm of A - share companies to list in Hong Kong has increased, and the "A + H" dual - listing model has seen explosive growth [35]. - The cycle sector, especially non - ferrous metals, has strong growth momentum in 2025 and is expected to continue to rise in 2026 [35].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The methanol 2605 contract is expected to run strongly in the short - term, with short - term and medium - term trends being volatile and the intraday trend being strong [1][5] - Due to increasing domestic methanol supply pressure and a significant correction in domestic coal futures prices, the methanol futures' rebound was hindered, and it re - entered a correction. Although port and inland inventories have slightly declined, they remain at high levels. Downstream demand improvement is insufficient, and olefin disk profits are weakening. With the emergence of long - short divergence, last Friday night, domestic methanol futures maintained a volatile and stable trend with a slight increase in prices. It is expected that on Monday, domestic methanol futures may maintain this volatile and stable trend [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Time - cycle and Viewpoint Summary - For the methanol 2605 contract, the short - term trend is volatile, the medium - term is volatile, and the intraday is strong. The reference view is a strong run, and the core logic is the emergence of long - short divergence leading to a volatile and strong trend [1] 3.2 Price and Market Logic Summary - The calculation of the price increase or decrease range is based on the night - session closing price for varieties with night sessions and the previous day's closing price for varieties without night sessions as the starting price, and the day - session closing price as the ending price [2] - A decline greater than 1% is considered weak, a decline between 0 - 1% is considered slightly weak, an increase between 0 - 1% is considered slightly strong, and an increase greater than 1% is considered strong. The slightly strong/weak concept only applies to the intraday view [3][4] - The intraday view of methanol is strong, and the medium - term view is volatile. The reference view is a strong run. The core logic involves supply pressure, coal price decline, high inventory, weak downstream demand, and the emergence of long - short divergence [5]