期货研究报告 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025 年 12 月 29 日） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 参考观点：震荡偏弱 核心逻辑：国内库存高企，油厂开工率回升加剧库存压力，油厂合同量大幅回落，贸易商滚动补库、 饲料厂按需采购，成交清淡。需求端，终端追涨情绪有限，成交谨慎，市场关注大豆到港及通关政策 传闻。市场情绪推动下，豆粕期价虽迎来止跌反弹，但持续性不强。短期豆粕期价延续近强远弱格局， 期现表现分化，整体低位震荡为主。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月(以前一日夜盘收盘价为基准) 品种 短期 中期 日内 观点参考 核心 ...

宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2025 年 12 月 29 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2602 | 震荡 | 强势 | 震荡 偏强 | 观望 | 流动性恢复利好金价，避险需求 下降利空金价 | | 铜 | 2602 | 震荡 | 强势 | 上涨 | 观望 | 流动性恢复叠加产业强预期推升 铜价 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 核心逻辑：上周金价持续上行，纽约金突破 4500 美元，沪金突破 1000 元关口。周四海外开始圣诞 假期，国内波动下降。拉长时间看，随着美日央行会议相继结束，市场 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information is provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report predicts that the iron ore 2605 contract will experience wide - range fluctuations, with short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends being oscillatory, oscillatory, and oscillatory and weak respectively [1]. - The iron ore futures price is at a high level due to positive commodity sentiment, but the supply - demand pattern is weakening. The overall trend is expected to continue high - level oscillations, and attention should be paid to steel mill production [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For the iron ore 2605 contract, the short - term view is oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the intraday view is oscillatory and weak, with an overall view of wide - range oscillations. The core logic is that positive commodity sentiment keeps the ore price at a high level [1]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - Positive commodity sentiment has led to a high - level operation of iron ore futures prices. However, the supply - demand pattern is weakening, with port inventories rising to a high level, steel mill production stabilizing, and terminal ore consumption weakly stable. Steel mill profitability has limited improvement, and the weak demand pattern is difficult to change, although pre - holiday restocking is a relative positive factor [2]. - Both domestic port arrivals and miner shipments have decreased month - on - month but remain at a high level for the year. Overseas ore supply is active, and overall ore supply remains high despite the contraction of domestic ore supply [2]. - Currently, due to the structural contradiction in the spot market and positive commodity sentiment, iron ore prices are at a high level. However, with weakening demand and high - level supply, the fundamental situation is weak, and the upward driving force is not strong. The subsequent trend is expected to continue high - level oscillations, and attention should be paid to steel mill production [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The domestic thermal coal price has been continuously weakening in December 2025, with the decline exceeding expectations. As of December 25, the FOB price of 5500K thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port was 682 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 37 yuan, and it continued to weaken after falling below 700 yuan/ton. The slump in the coal market is mainly dragged down by unexpectedly weak demand. Under the pattern of stable supply and weak demand, the coal inventory in the industrial chain remains at a high level, and the thermal coal price is running weakly. Subsequent stabilization is expected to wait for the improvement of coal demand in coastal cities and the release of terminal replenishment demand [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Commodity Futures Black Sector - **Variety**: Thermal coal spot - **Intraday View**: No specific intraday view is provided - **Medium - term View**: The reference view is "oscillating". The core logic is that in December, the domestic thermal coal price weakened continuously, and the decline exceeded expectations. The coal market is weak due to unexpectedly weak demand. Under the pattern of stable supply and weak demand, the coal inventory in the industrial chain is high, and the price is weak. Stabilization needs the improvement of coal demand in coastal cities and the release of terminal replenishment demand [4]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For both short - term and medium - term, the views on both coking coal and coke are "oscillation". The intraday views are "oscillation with a slight upward bias". The overall reference view is an "oscillation approach" [1]. - The coking coal market has a neutral and relatively loose supply - demand pattern, but post - New Year downstream winter storage and resumption expectations provide some support, and the continuous decline of thermal coal may trigger new supply adjustment measures [5]. - The coke market has a weak short - term fundamental situation, but the demand - side expectations have improved, and the market is in a stalemate between bulls and bears, with the futures main contract remaining in low - level oscillation [6]. 3. Summary by Variety Coking Coal (JM) - **Production**: As of the week ending December 26, the daily average output of clean coal from 523 coking coal mines nationwide was 740,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 18,000 tons and 20,000 tons lower than the same period last year [5]. - **Import**: As of December 20, the cumulative customs clearance of Mongolian coal at the 288 port was 26,498 vehicles, a 23.0% increase from the high base in November, which suppresses domestic coal prices [5]. - **Supply - demand and Inventory**: Overall supply is stable, demand remains low, the supply - demand pattern is neutral and relatively loose, and coking coal inventories in all industrial chain links have increased [5]. Coke (J) - **Production**: As of the week ending December 26, the combined daily output of coke from all - sample independent coking plants and steel - mill coking plants was 1,094,700 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 200 tons; the daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills nationwide was 2,265,800 tons [6]. - **Supply - demand Situation**: Both supply and demand of coke have stabilized at a low level, and the fundamentals have not improved significantly. The short - term fundamentals are still weak, but demand - side expectations have improved [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - In 2026, China will continue to implement a more proactive fiscal policy, expand fiscal spending, and optimize the government bond tool portfolio [2][14]. - The profit growth rate of large - scale industrial enterprises from January to November has slowed down, but the growth trend since August continues, and new kinetic energy industries are growing rapidly [2][14]. - The prices of domestic precious metals and base metals have risen collectively, with many varieties hitting new highs, while the price of palladium futures has fallen [3]. - The Baltic countries' natural gas reserves are extremely low, which may lead to supply problems during the cold season [9]. - The acquisition of autumn grains this year is at a record - high level, and the grain output has increased, mainly driven by the increase in corn production [10]. - The bond market is expected to remain volatile by the end of the year, and the direction of the market depends on policies and supply [21][22]. - The A - share market is expected to be a volatile market with structural opportunities, and the cycle sector, especially non - ferrous metals, is expected to continue to rise in 2026 [33][35]. Summary by Directory Macro Data Quick View - In Q3 2025, GDP grew by 4.8% year - on - year, down from 5.2% in the previous quarter [1]. - In November 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, up from 49.0% in the previous month but down from 50.3% in the same period last year [1]. - In November 2025, the new social financing scale was 24885.00 billion yuan, compared with 8161.00 billion yuan in the previous month and 23288.00 billion yuan in the same period last year [1]. - In November 2025, CPI increased by 0.7% year - on - year, up from 0.2% in the previous month, and PPI decreased by 2.2% year - on - year, down from - 2.1% in the previous month [1]. - In November 2025, exports increased by 5.9% year - on - year, and imports increased by 1.9% year - on - year [1]. Commodity Investment Reference Comprehensive - The 2026 fiscal work will focus on six key tasks, including boosting consumption, increasing investment in key areas, and promoting employment [2][14]. - From January to November, the total profit of large - scale industrial enterprises was 66268.6 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.1%, but the profit in November decreased by 13.1% year - on - year [2][14]. - On December 26, 30 domestic commodity varieties had positive basis, and 38 had negative basis [3]. - The prices of domestic precious metals and base metals rose, with platinum futures hitting the daily limit, and palladium futures falling [3]. - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange adjusted the price limit and margin standards for platinum and palladium futures during the New Year's Day holiday [3]. - The London silver market is experiencing a severe physical squeeze, and the silver price may continue to rise [4]. Metals - The price of silver has risen sharply, with the international spot silver price breaking through $82 per ounce [5]. - Gold, silver, and platinum prices hit new highs on December 26, supported by geopolitical risks and a weak dollar [5]. - The price of gold jewelry has exceeded 1400 yuan, and the gold recycling market has shown a "polarized" situation [5]. - Several lithium iron phosphate manufacturers have announced production shutdowns for maintenance due to equipment maintenance and cost pressures [6]. - The CME will raise the margin requirements for gold, silver, and lithium futures after the close on December 29 [6]. - The price of silver has increased by 175% this year, and there are concerns about its impact on industrial development and potential price corrections [6]. - As of December 26, the SPDR Gold Trust's holdings increased by 0.27% to 1071.13 tons [7]. Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - Chile's state - owned copper company and a lithium giant will merge their subsidiaries to develop lithium in the Atacama Salt Flats [8]. Energy and Chemicals - As of December 28, Xinjiang Oilfield's carbon dioxide injection exceeded 1 million tons, marking a key step in the large - scale application of CCUS technology [9]. - The natural gas reserves in the Baltic countries are extremely low, which may cause supply problems during the cold season [9]. Agricultural Products - As of now, the purchase of autumn grains has exceeded 200 million tons, 32 million tons more than the same period last year [10]. - China's grain output in 2025 was 1.43 trillion catties, a year - on - year increase of 1.2%, mainly driven by corn production [10]. - The South American soybean growing area has received good rainfall, which is beneficial to the growth of sown soybeans. The production of Malaysian palm oil from December 1 - 25 decreased by 9.12% month - on - month, and exports increased by 1.6% month - on - month [11]. - The prices of rice and eggs in Japan have reached record highs [11]. Financial News Compilation Open Market - This week, 6227 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature in the central bank's open market [12]. - On December 26, the Ministry of Finance and the central bank conducted treasury cash management commercial bank time - deposit tenders, with a total winning amount of 210 billion yuan [12]. - On December 26, the central bank conducted 930 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 368 billion yuan [12]. Important News - The 2026 National Two Sessions will be held in March, and the review of the "15th Five - Year Plan" draft is on the agenda of the National People's Congress [13][15]. - The National People's Congress Standing Committee passed a new version of the Foreign Trade Law, which will come into effect on March 1, 2026 [15]. - The central bank released the "China Financial Stability Report (2025)", aiming to maintain financial stability and create a suitable monetary and financial environment [17]. - The central bank will pay close attention to the real estate market and promote its stable and healthy development [18]. - The China National Venture Capital Guidance Fund has been officially launched, focusing on early - stage projects in key areas [18]. - Hainan Free Trade Port has launched the full - island customs closure operation, and relevant policies have achieved initial results [18]. - The central bank and the foreign exchange administration will promote cross - border corporate currency integration funds pool business nationwide [19]. - Hong Kong's economy is expected to maintain a good momentum in 2026 [19]. - The issuance scale of science and technology innovation bonds this year has reached 2.26 trillion yuan [19]. - The first industrial plant REITs project in the inter - institutional market has been listed [19]. - Vanke's second 3.7 billion yuan bond extension plan has not been approved [20]. Bond Market Summary - The inter - bank bond market has warmed up, with most interest - rate bond yields falling and treasury bond futures rising [21]. - In the exchange bond market, Vanke bonds generally rose, while industrial and financial bonds generally fell [22]. - The CSI Convertible Bond Index fell 0.04%, and the Wande Convertible Bond Equal - Weighted Index fell 0.23% [22]. - Most money market interest rates declined, and short - term Shibor rates mostly rose [23]. - Most bank - to - bank repurchase fixed - rate and silver - silver repurchase fixed - rate bonds fell [23][24]. - Most US Treasury yields fell, except for the 30 - year yield [24][25]. Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.0085, down 19 points from the previous trading day [26]. - The US dollar index rose 0.12%, and major non - US currencies showed mixed performance [26]. Research Report Highlights - In 2025, the bond market was a typical "sideways market", and investors faced challenges in a low - interest - rate environment [27]. - The steel industry may see continued improvement in supply and demand in 2026, and steel bond investment should focus on central and state - owned enterprises [27]. - Since mid - November, long - term bonds, especially ultra - long - term bonds, have been significantly adjusted, possibly due to banks' end - of - year duration constraints [28]. - The risk of systemic default of weak - region urban investment bonds in 2027 is limited, but there are valuation and liquidity risks [29]. - The issuance scale and duration of government bonds have increased this year, and the supply pressure on long - term bonds will remain high in 2026 [29]. - In the medium - to - long - term, the RMB may appreciate moderately in 2026, but one - sided bets should be avoided [29]. - Ultra - long - term bonds have certain allocation value in the long run [30]. Today's Reminders - On December 29, 210 bonds will be listed, 61 bonds will be issued, and 459 bonds will pay principal and interest [31][32]. Stock Market News - In the last three trading days of 2025, the A - share market is expected to be a volatile market with structural opportunities [33]. - In 2025, there were 528 double - digit stocks in the A - share market, mainly AI and merger - concept stocks [33]. - As of December 26, the highest return of public active equity funds reached 236.88%, and 72 funds had returns exceeding 100% [34]. - The A - share private placement market has recovered in 2025, with public and private funds investing over 41 billion yuan and achieving high floating profit ratios [34]. - Since 2025, the enthusiasm of A - share companies to list in Hong Kong has increased, and the "A + H" dual - listing model has seen explosive growth [35]. - The cycle sector, especially non - ferrous metals, has strong growth momentum in 2025 and is expected to continue to rise in 2026 [35].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The methanol 2605 contract is expected to run strongly in the short - term, with short - term and medium - term trends being volatile and the intraday trend being strong [1][5] - Due to increasing domestic methanol supply pressure and a significant correction in domestic coal futures prices, the methanol futures' rebound was hindered, and it re - entered a correction. Although port and inland inventories have slightly declined, they remain at high levels. Downstream demand improvement is insufficient, and olefin disk profits are weakening. With the emergence of long - short divergence, last Friday night, domestic methanol futures maintained a volatile and stable trend with a slight increase in prices. It is expected that on Monday, domestic methanol futures may maintain this volatile and stable trend [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Time - cycle and Viewpoint Summary - For the methanol 2605 contract, the short - term trend is volatile, the medium - term is volatile, and the intraday is strong. The reference view is a strong run, and the core logic is the emergence of long - short divergence leading to a volatile and strong trend [1] 3.2 Price and Market Logic Summary - The calculation of the price increase or decrease range is based on the night - session closing price for varieties with night sessions and the previous day's closing price for varieties without night sessions as the starting price, and the day - session closing price as the ending price [2] - A decline greater than 1% is considered weak, a decline between 0 - 1% is considered slightly weak, an increase between 0 - 1% is considered slightly strong, and an increase greater than 1% is considered strong. The slightly strong/weak concept only applies to the intraday view [3][4] - The intraday view of methanol is strong, and the medium - term view is volatile. The reference view is a strong run. The core logic involves supply pressure, coal price decline, high inventory, weak downstream demand, and the emergence of long - short divergence [5]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The domestic crude oil futures are expected to run weakly and maintain a volatile and weak trend. The short - term view is weak, the medium - term view is volatile, and the intraday view is weak [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Content Price and Market Situation - For the crude oil 2602 contract, the short - term trend is volatile, the medium - term is volatile, and the intraday is weak, with a reference view of weak operation [1]. Driving Logic - The recent sharp escalation of the US - Venezuela situation is the direct and strong driving force for the oil price rebound. The US has increased pressure on Venezuela, with about 600 million barrels of Venezuelan crude oil seized and about 600,000 barrels per day of exports in November. The number of tankers going to Venezuela has decreased, raising concerns about a global supply gap and increasing the risk premium of oil prices. Additionally, the attack on Russian refineries by Ukraine makes geopolitical factors dominant in the short - term oil market. After the short - term positive factors are digested, the domestic crude oil futures prices showed a volatile and weak trend on the night of last Friday, and are expected to maintain this trend on Monday [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of the stock index is oscillating and strengthening, and the medium - term view is oscillating. The reference view is oscillating and strengthening. The policy - side favorable expectations and the trend of capital net inflow jointly form the medium - and long - term support for the stock index. With the approach of the previous high position of the stock index, pay attention to whether the stock index can break through the technical resistance of the previous high in the short term. Overall, the bullish factors continue to ferment, and the stock index is oscillating and strengthening in the short term [1][5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2603, the short - term is oscillating, the medium - term is oscillating, the intraday is strengthening, and the reference view is oscillating and strengthening. The core logic is that the policy - side favorable expectations and the trend of capital net inflow remain unchanged [1] Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IF, IH, IC, IM, the intraday view is strengthening, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the reference view is oscillating and strengthening. The core logic is that last Friday, each stock index oscillated and rose. The total market turnover of the stock market was 2160.3 billion yuan, an increase of 216.5 billion yuan compared with the previous day. The recent trading volume of the stock market has gradually increased, and the stock index has risen continuously, indicating that the market risk appetite continues to recover. As the new year approaches, the policy - side favorable expectations gradually ferment. Coupled with the appreciation of the RMB, a large number of relatively high - interest time deposits will mature next year, and their "re - allocation" may bring a large amount of incremental capital inflow to the stock market. The policy - side favorable expectations and the trend of capital net inflow jointly form the medium - and long - term support for the stock index [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Report's Core View - The short - term probability of interest rate cuts is low, while there are still long - term expectations of monetary easing. Treasury bond futures have support but also face pressure, and are expected to remain in a volatile consolidation in the short term. [1][5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For TL2603, the short - term view is "volatile", the medium - term view is "volatile", and the intraday view is "weak". The reference view is "volatile consolidation". The core logic is the low short - term probability of interest rate cuts and long - term easing expectations. [1] 2. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For varieties TL, T, TF, TS, the intraday view is "weak", the medium - term view is "volatile", and the reference view is "volatile consolidation". The core logic is that last Friday, treasury bond futures fluctuated slightly up. With the moderately loose monetary policy, a more relaxed monetary environment next year, and increasing expectations of coordinated efforts between monetary and fiscal policies in Q1, treasury bond futures have strong support and the bond yields have decreased. However, the central bank is likely to be cautious about interest rate cuts, limiting the short - term rebound driven by rate - cut expectations. [5]