1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "oscillating" [5] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The container shipping index is affected by macro - disturbances and the advanced full pricing of peak - season expectations, leading to a volatile market. The short - term macro - positive factors, capacity regulation, and multiple rounds of price - support expectations will still support the market. Before the peak - season expectations are disproven, the main contract is likely to maintain a relatively strong oscillation, but the market has already factored in a certain premium [5] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Part One: Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - **Influencing Factors and Their Effects** - **Spot Freight Rates**: They have a negative impact. In late November, MSK quoted 2250, HPL 3150, CMA 3200, YML 2550, and ONE 2600. Airlines' price - increase calls are showing obvious differentiation [5] - **Political and Economic Factors**: They have a neutral impact. In November, capacity has recovered, with available capacity on various US gateway routes increasing by 10 - 15% compared to before. The overall TPEB route capacity is expected to fluctuate between 83% - 88%. After the pre - peak - season concentrated booking rush affected by the expected tariff increase on November 1st, the market demand in November remained healthy [5] - **Capacity Supply**: It has a positive impact. The weekly average capacity deployment in September was 290,000, 245,000 in October, 265,000 in November, and is expected to be 290,000 in December. The overall loading rate is lower than the same period in the past two years [5] - **Demand**: It has a neutral impact. The key influencing factors are the realization of peak - season demand, the sustainability of airlines' strategies, and geopolitical and long - term agreement variables [5] - **Investment Viewpoint**: The market is expected to oscillate [5] - **Trading Strategy**: For both single - side and arbitrage trading, it is recommended to wait and see. Pay attention to geopolitical disturbances and domestic and foreign macro - policy disturbances [5] 3.2 Part Two: Price - The report presents price trends of various container shipping routes such as the European line index, US - West line index, and US - East line index through charts, but no specific text analysis is provided [9] 3.3 Part Two: Static Capacity - **Order Volume**: It shows the order volume and new - order volume of container ships with different loading capacities over the years through charts [15] - **Delivery Volume**: It shows the delivery volume and demolition volume of container ships with different loading capacities over the years through charts [18][19] - **Future Delivery**: It shows the future delivery volume of container ships with different loading capacities in different time periods through charts [24][26] - **Ship Prices**: It includes new - building prices, second - hand ship prices, and scrap prices of container ships with different loading capacities, and presents their trends over the years through charts [31][33][37] - **Existing Capacity**: It shows the existing capacity, age structure, idle and retrofit ratios of container ships through charts [46][49][53] 3.4 Part Three: Dynamic Capacity - **Ship Schedule**: It shows the total capacity deployment and the capacity deployment of different alliances (PA + MSC, GEMINI, OCEAN, MSC) on the Shanghai - European basic port route through charts [61][63][65] - **Desulfurization Tower Installation**: It shows the situation of container ships with installed, being - installed desulfurization towers, including the number of ships and capacity in TEU, as well as the average age and time for installation through charts [71][72][75] - **Average Speed**: It shows the average speed of container ships with different loading capacities over the years through charts [76] - **Idle Capacity**: It shows the idle capacity, idle - ship number, and idle - capacity ratio of container ships through charts [79][80][81]

Group 1 - The domestic futures market shows mixed performance, with the main contract of the shipping index (European line) opening at 1101.6 points and reaching a high of 1159.8 points, reflecting a 4.94% increase [1] - The shipping index (European line) is currently exhibiting a strong upward trend, with institutions providing various outlooks on its future performance [1] - The Eurozone's manufacturing PMI for September is reported at 49.5, falling below expectations and indicating ongoing pressure in the manufacturing sector, particularly in Germany and France [1] Group 2 - The "Istanbul Bridge" vessel has commenced its journey from Ningbo-Zhoushan Port to the UK’s largest container port, marking the launch of the world's first fast shipping route between China and Europe, which is expected to enhance international logistics for high-end manufacturing and cross-border e-commerce [1] - Shipping companies are continuing to lower prices to attract cargo, with Mediterranean Shipping reducing rates to $890/TEU and $1490/FEU, while Hapag-Lloyd has adjusted some voyages to $935/TEU and $1435/FEU [1] - Current market sentiment remains weak, with ongoing pressure on spot prices and limited cargo volume ahead of the holiday season, leading to potential further price reductions if shipping companies do not implement effective capacity reduction measures [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View of the Report - The supply - demand pattern of rebar is weakly stable, and the steel price is expected to continue the low - level volatile operation situation. The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views on rebar 2601 are shock, shock, and shock - weak respectively, and attention should be paid to the pressure at the MA5 line [2][3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Content Variety View Reference - For rebar 2601, the short - term view is shock, the medium - term view is shock, and the intraday view is shock - weak. The view reference is to pay attention to the pressure at the MA5 line, with the core logic of a weakly stable supply - demand pattern and low - level volatile steel prices. The calculation method of price fluctuations and the definitions of shock - strong/weak are also provided [2]. Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of rebar runs weakly and stably. Short - process steel mills have reduced production, and the weekly rebar output has decreased month - on - month, but the decline is not large and it is still at a relatively high level within the year. Coupled with high inventory, the supply pressure has not been relieved. Meanwhile, the rebar demand is weak, high - frequency indicators are running at a low level, and the downstream industries have not improved, with poor performance in the peak season, which continues to put pressure on steel prices. In the current situation of weak supply and demand, the rebar fundamentals are weak, industrial contradictions continue to accumulate, and the steel price continues to be under pressure. With the relatively favorable peak - season expectation and cost increase, the steel price is expected to continue the low - level volatile operation, and attention should be paid to the production and sales data released by the Steel Union today [3].

Report Overview - Report Title: Steel & Iron Ore | Daily Report - Report Date: September 10, 2025 - Report Industry: Steel and Iron Ore 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report Core Views - **Rebar**: The main contract price is weakly oscillating with a daily decline of 0.73%. In the current supply-demand weakness, the fundamentals are weak, and industrial contradictions are accumulating. With the relatively favorable peak-season expectation and rising costs, the steel price is expected to continue the low-level oscillating trend. Attention should be paid to the demand performance [4]. - **Hot-rolled Coil**: The main contract price is oscillating with a daily decline of 0.39%. In the current supply-demand weakness, industrial contradictions are accumulating limitedly, and the fundamentals are relatively good. With less delivery pressure, the short-term trend of hot-rolled coil is relatively strong. Attention should be paid to the demand change [4]. - **Iron Ore**: The main contract price is oscillating at a high level with a daily increase of 0.25%. In the current supply-demand weakness, the fundamentals of iron ore are running smoothly. The holiday restocking expectation and supply disruptions support the ore price to continue the strong trend. However, the relatively negative factor is the high valuation, and the upside space is cautiously optimistic. Attention should be paid to the performance of steel [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **CPI and PPI**: In August 2025, the core CPI continued to rise, and the year-on-year decline of PPI narrowed. The CPI was flat month-on-month and decreased by 0.4% year-on-year. The core CPI increased by 0.9% year-on-year, with the growth rate expanding for the fourth consecutive month. The PPI was flat month-on-month and decreased by 2.9% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 0.7 percentage points compared with the previous month [6]. - **Real Estate Sales**: According to Mysteel statistics, the total sales of 16 key real estate enterprises from January to August 2025 were 868.862 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 17%. The sales in August were 106.451 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.5% and a month-on-month increase of 20.2%. Only China Jinmao had a year-on-year increase in sales from January to August, with a growth rate of 25.7%. Other 15 enterprises had year-on-year decreases, and the largest decline was from Seazen Holdings, with a decrease of 54.1% [7]. - **Project Commencement**: In August 2025, 397 projects started across the country. The top three provinces in terms of commencement investment were Jilin, Guangxi, and Zhejiang, with total investments of 64.73 billion yuan, 30.37 billion yuan, and 27.7 billion yuan respectively [8]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Steel Products**: The national average prices of rebar (HRB400E, 20mm) and hot-rolled coil (Shanghai, 4.75mm) were 3,283 yuan and 3,438 yuan respectively, with decreases of 4 yuan and 6 yuan compared with the previous day. The price of Tangshan billet (Q235) was 3,000 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. The price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap (≥6mm) was 2,080 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. The coil-rebar price difference was 180 yuan, and the rebar-scrap price difference was 1,120 yuan, with a decrease of 10 yuan [9]. - **Iron Ore**: The price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports was 798 yuan, an increase of 3 yuan compared with the previous day. The price of Tangshan iron concentrate (wet basis) was 800 yuan, an increase of 3 yuan compared with the previous day. The sea freight from Australia and Brazil was 10.53 yuan and 23.91 yuan respectively, with increases of 0.44 yuan and 0.16 yuan compared with the previous day. The SGX swap (current month) was 106.75 yuan, an increase of 1.50 yuan compared with the previous day. The Platts Index (CFR, 62%) was 107.65 yuan, an increase of 1.95 yuan compared with the previous day [9]. 3.3 Futures Market | Variety | Closing Price | Change (%) | High | Low | Volume | Volume Difference | Open Interest | Open Interest Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rebar | 3,109 | -0.73 | 3,126 | 3,092 | 1,264,549 | -64,810 | 1,867,674 | 88,845 | | Hot-rolled Coil | 3,342 | -0.39 | 3,355 | 3,316 | 446,058 | -68,834 | 1,313,659 | 6,895 | | Iron Ore | 805.0 | 0.25 | 809.0 | 796.0 | 334,534 | -159,592 | 544,566 | 3,366 | [11] 3.4 Related Charts The report provides charts on steel inventory (rebar, hot-rolled coil), iron ore inventory (national 45-port, 247 steel mills, domestic mines), and steel mill production (247 sample steel mills' blast furnace开工率 and capacity utilization, 87 independent electric furnace开工率, 75 building material independent electric arc furnace steel mills' profit and loss situation) [13][18][27]. 3.5 Market Outlook - **Rebar**: The supply-demand pattern has little change. The production of construction steel mills is weakening, and the weekly output of rebar has decreased by 1.88 tons. The demand is weak, and the peak-season demand is in doubt. The steel price is expected to continue the low-level oscillating trend [34]. - **Hot-rolled Coil**: Both supply and demand are weakening. The production of steel mills is restricted during the military parade, and the weekly output has decreased by 10.50 tons. The demand is also weakening, and the demand toughness is weakening. The short-term trend is relatively strong [34]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply-demand pattern has changed. The terminal consumption of ore has decreased significantly due to production restrictions. The supply is expected to increase steadily. The ore price is supported by restocking expectations and supply disruptions, but the upside space is cautiously optimistic [35].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Rebar**: The main contract price of rebar oscillated upwards with a daily increase of 1.06%, and both trading volume and open interest expanded. Currently, both supply and demand of rebar have weakened, the fundamentals have not improved, inventory has been increasing, and steel prices are under pressure. With the relatively favorable peak - season expectation and rising costs, steel prices will continue to oscillate to find the bottom, and attention should be paid to demand performance [4]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: The main contract price of hot - rolled coil oscillated higher with a daily increase of 1.03%, and trading volume and open interest expanded. At present, production has decreased due to production restrictions but can recover quickly. In contrast, demand resilience is weakening, the supply - demand imbalance in the hot - rolled coil industry continues to accumulate, inventory growth has widened, and steel prices continue to be under pressure. The relatively favorable factors are peak - season expectation and cost situation, and the short - term trend will continue to oscillate. Attention should be paid to demand performance [4]. - **Iron ore**: The main contract price of iron ore oscillated at a high level with a daily increase of 0.77%, and trading volume and open interest shrank. Currently, iron ore demand is declining while supply is rising, the fundamentals of iron ore are likely to weaken, and high - valued ore prices continue to be under pressure. The relatively favorable factors are peak - season expectation and the intervention of arbitrage funds. The short - term ore price will maintain a high - level oscillation, and beware of the intensification of industrial contradictions [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - The central bank will conduct a 100 - billion - yuan outright reverse repurchase operation on September 5 with a term of 3 months to maintain sufficient liquidity in the banking system [6]. - The expected tariff increase in the US led to a significant expansion of the US trade deficit in July. The trade deficit in July expanded to $78.3 billion, significantly higher than that in June. The import in July was $358.8 billion, a month - on - month increase of 5.9%; the export was $280.5 billion, a month - on - month increase of 0.3%. The total trade deficit of goods and services increased by 32.5% month - on - month [7]. - In late August 2025, the average daily output of crude steel of key steel enterprises was 1.947 million tons, a decrease of 8.0% compared to the previous period; the average daily output of pig iron was 1.827 million tons, a decrease of 5.1%; the average daily output of steel products was 2.138 million tons, an increase of 4.4% [8]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Rebar**: The spot prices in Shanghai and Tianjin were 3,210 yuan, and the national average price was 3,283 yuan [9]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: The spot prices in Shanghai and Tianjin were 3,380 yuan and 3,320 yuan respectively, and the national average price was 3,431 yuan [9]. - **Iron ore**: The price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports was 782 yuan, and the price of Tangshan iron concentrate was 792 yuan [9]. 3.3 Futures Market | Variety | Closing Price | Increase/Decrease (%) | Trading Volume | Open Interest | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Rebar | 3,143 | 1.06 | 1,385,167 | 1,737,894 | | Hot - rolled coil | 3,340 | 1.03 | 534,944 | 1,300,035 | | Iron ore | 789.5 | 0.77 | 289,453 | 501,397 | [11] 3.4 Relevant Charts - **Steel inventory**: The report provides charts of weekly changes in rebar inventory, hot - rolled coil inventory, and total inventory (steel mill + social inventory) [14][16][22]. - **Iron ore inventory**: Charts of national 45 - port iron ore inventory, 247 - steel - mill iron ore inventory, and domestic mine iron concentrate inventory are included [20][24][30]. - **Steel mill production situation**: Charts of 247 - steel - mill blast furnace开工率 and capacity utilization rate, 87 - independent electric furnace开工率, and 75 - building - material independent electric - arc furnace steel mill profit and loss situation are provided [25][29][31]. 3.5 Market Outlook - **Rebar**: The supply - demand pattern has not changed much. Production of construction steel mills has weakened, and rebar weekly output decreased by 18,800 tons. Demand is weak, and both weekly apparent demand and high - frequency transactions are at low levels. Steel prices will continue to oscillate to find the bottom [32]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: Both supply and demand have weakened. During the parade, production was restricted, and weekly output decreased by 105,000 tons. Demand continues to be weak, and the demand resilience is weakening. Steel prices will continue to be under pressure and oscillate in the short term [33]. - **Iron ore**: The supply - demand pattern has changed. Due to production restrictions, terminal consumption of iron ore has decreased significantly, and supply has increased. Ore prices will maintain a high - level oscillation, and beware of the intensification of industrial contradictions [34].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The long - term bearish trend of nickel fundamentals remains unchanged. Affected by events in major producing countries, recent market fluctuations have increased. The unrest mainly occurred in the capital area of Indonesia and was short - lived, causing no substantial impact on nickel supply. In the short term, the contradiction in refined nickel is not prominent. Based on repeated macro - expectations, nickel prices are likely to fluctuate widely [3][4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Nickel - **Price and Market Performance**: Last week, the Shanghai Nickel main contract 2510 opened at 119,550 yuan/ton, closed at 121,700 yuan/ton, with a weekly high of 122,690 yuan/ton and a low of 119,530 yuan/ton, up 1.75% for the week. As of September 1, the electrolytic nickel spot price increased by 3,050 yuan/ton to 124,300 yuan/ton week - on - week, a 2.52% increase [8][11]. - **Supply and Demand Factors** - **Nickel Ore**: As of September 1, the CIF prices of 0.9%, 1.5%, and 1.8% Philippine laterite nickel ore were flat at 29, 57, and 78.5 US dollars/wet ton respectively compared with last week. As of August 29, the ex - factory prices of Indonesian Ni1.2% and Ni1.6% domestic trade nickel ore were flat at 24.5 and 52.2 US dollars/wet ton respectively compared with last week. Last week, the freight rates from the Philippines to Tianjin Port and Lianyungang increased by 0.5 US dollars to 12.5 and 11.5 US dollars/wet ton respectively [28]. - **Refined Nickel**: As of August 2025, China's monthly electrolytic nickel production increased by 0.24 million tons to 3.52 million tons month - on - month, a 7.32% increase and a 20.55% increase year - on - year. As of September 1, SHFE nickel warehouse receipts decreased by 519 tons to 21,800 tons week - on - week, a 2.33% decrease. LME nickel warehouse receipts increased by 696 tons to 209,800 tons week - on - week, a 0.33% increase. Last week, the social inventory of pure nickel (including the Shanghai Futures Exchange) decreased by 1,402 tons to 39,500 tons week - on - week, a 3.43% decrease [38][40]. - **Nickel Iron**: As of August 2025, the national nickel pig iron production (metal content) increased by 0.08 million tons to 2.53 million tons month - on - month, a 3.02% increase. As of September 1, the average price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron increased by 12.5 yuan/nickel point to 943 yuan/nickel point week - on - week, a 1.34% increase [67][23]. - **Sulfuric Acid Nickel**: As of July 2025, China's monthly sulfuric acid nickel production increased by 0.43 million tons to 2.91 million nickel tons month - on - month, a 17.3% increase. As of September 1, the average price of battery - grade sulfuric acid nickel increased by 160 yuan/ton to 27,800 yuan/ton week - on - week, a 0.58% increase [52][23]. - **Stainless Steel**: As of September 2025, the national stainless - steel crude steel production is estimated to increase by 3.74% to 3.4021 million tons month - on - month. As of August 29, the stainless - steel social inventory decreased by 0.88 million tons to 1.083 million tons week - on - week, a 0.81% decrease [81][84]. Monthly Balance Sheet - From January to December 2025, the total nickel production ranges from 8.2 to 9.0 million tons, imports from 9.8 to 12.5 million tons, exports from 1.3 to 2.2 million tons, and total consumption from 17.3 to 19.2 million tons. There are periods of surplus and shortage, with supply and consumption showing different year - on - year and cumulative year - on - year changes [4].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore 2601 contract is expected to oscillate in the short - and medium - term, and show a slightly weak oscillation trend intraday. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at the M20 line. The supply - demand pattern is weakly stable, and the ore price will oscillate at a high level [2]. - The iron ore futures price is relatively strong due to improved market sentiment, but the supply - demand pattern has not improved. Ore demand continues to decline, while supply is rising. The ore fundamentals are expected to weaken, and the high - valued ore price is still under pressure. The positive factors are the peak - season expectation and the support of varietal arbitrage funds. The ore price is expected to continue to oscillate at a high level, and attention should be paid to the performance of steel prices [3]. Group 3: Summaries Based on Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - For the iron ore 2601 contract, the short - term and medium - term trends are oscillation, and the intraday trend is slightly weak oscillation. The key is to focus on the M20 line support. The core logic is the weakly stable supply - demand pattern and high - level ore price oscillation [2]. Market Driving Logic - Market sentiment has improved, but the iron ore supply - demand pattern remains unchanged. Ore demand is falling as steel mill production weakens and steel product contradictions accumulate with shrinking profits. On the supply side, domestic port arrivals have rebounded as expected, and overseas miners' shipments are at a high level. Although domestic ore production is restricted, overall ore supply is increasing. The ore fundamentals are expected to deteriorate, and the high - valued ore price is under pressure. Positive factors include peak - season expectations and varietal arbitrage funds, and the ore price is expected to oscillate at a high level, with attention on steel prices [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term and intraday view of rebar 2510 is oscillating weakly, the medium - term view is oscillating, and it is recommended to pay attention to the pressure at the MA5 line. The core logic is the poor supply - demand pattern and the steel price is searching for the bottom weakly [2]. - In the situation of both supply and demand increasing, the fundamentals of rebar have not improved, industrial contradictions have accumulated, inventory has continued to increase, and the steel price continues to be under pressure. It is expected that rebar will continue the trend of searching for the bottom weakly, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Content Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2510, the short - term view is oscillating weakly, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the intraday view is also oscillating weakly. The view reference is to pay attention to the pressure at the MA5 line, and the core logic is the poor supply - demand pattern and the steel price is searching for the bottom weakly [2]. Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of rebar is weak. The production of construction steel mills is active, and the rebar output has rebounded to the highest level this year, increasing the supply pressure. The demand for rebar has improved, with high - frequency indicators rising from the low level, but it is still at a low level in the same period in recent years, and the improvement space is limited due to the lack of improvement in downstream industries. In the situation of both supply and demand increasing, the fundamentals of rebar have not improved, industrial contradictions have accumulated, inventory has continued to increase, and the steel price continues to be under pressure. The relatively positive factors are the rising cost and the expectation of the peak season [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract price of rebar declined weakly, with a daily decline of 1.89%. In the current situation of increasing supply and demand, industrial contradictions continue to accumulate, inventory increases, and steel prices are still under pressure. It is expected to continue the weak bottom - seeking trend, and attention should be paid to demand performance [4]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil plate showed a weak operation, with a daily decline of 1.58%. The demand for hot - rolled coils has certain resilience, providing support for prices. However, concerns about external demand remain, and the supply contraction is difficult to sustain. It is expected to continue the weakening trend in oscillation, and attention should be paid to steel mill production [4]. - The main contract price of iron ore weakened again, with a daily decline of 2.67%. The demand for iron ore continues to weaken, while the supply is stable. The ore fundamentals are weakly stable, and the ore valuation is relatively high. Under the game of multiple and short factors, the ore price will continue the weak oscillation operation, and attention should be paid to steel performance [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Industry Dynamics - In August, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. The PMI of large enterprises was 50.8%, up 0.5 percentage points; the PMI of medium - sized enterprises was 48.9%, down 0.6 percentage points; the PMI of small enterprises was 46.6%, up 0.2 percentage points [6]. - In August 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 84,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 35%. From January to August, the cumulative sales exceeded 700,000 vehicles, and it is almost certain that the annual sales will exceed 1 million vehicles [7]. - From January to August 2025, nearly 110 anti - dumping and countervailing investigations or rulings on Chinese steel products were announced, involving various steel products [8]. 2. Spot Market - For rebar, the Shanghai price was 3,220 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the Tianjin price was 3,210 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the national average price was 3,300 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan. For hot - rolled coil plate, the Shanghai price was 3,350 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the Tianjin price was 3,300 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan; the national average price was 3,430 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan. The price of Tangshan steel billet was 2,970 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap was 2,120 yuan/ton, unchanged [9]. - The price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports was 765 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan; the price of Tangshan iron concentrate was 788 yuan/ton, unchanged. The sea freight from Australia was 10.11 yuan, down 0.05 yuan; from Brazil was 24.51 yuan, up 0.14 yuan. The SGX swap (current month) was 101.81, down 0.09, and the Platts Index (CFR, 62%) was 103.60, down 0.30 [9]. 3. Futures Market - The closing price of rebar futures was 3,115 yuan/ton, with a decline of 1.89%, the trading volume was 1,342,816, an increase of 534,144, and the open interest was 1,633,714, an increase of 578,004 [11]. - The closing price of hot - rolled coil plate futures was 3,303 yuan/ton, with a decline of 1.58%, the trading volume was 587,250, an increase of 59,364, and the open interest was 1,195,204, an increase of 28,571 [11]. - The closing price of iron ore futures was 766.0 yuan/ton, with a decline of 2.67%, the trading volume was 393,789, an increase of 178,541, and the open interest was 453,950, a decrease of 19,658 [11]. 4. Related Charts - The report provides various charts related to steel and iron ore inventories (such as rebar inventory, hot - rolled coil plate inventory, national 45 - port iron ore inventory, etc.), steel mill production (such as 247 - sample steel mill blast furnace opening rate, 87 - independent electric furnace opening rate, etc.) [13][26]. 5. Future Market Judgment - For rebar, supply and demand both increased. The weekly output increased by 59,100 tons, and demand improved with a weekly increase of 94,100 tons in apparent demand. However, high - frequency daily transactions were sluggish. With accumulated industrial contradictions and increasing inventory, it is expected to continue the weak bottom - seeking trend [34]. - For hot - rolled coil plate, supply and demand were stable. The weekly output decreased by 5,000 tons, and the weekly apparent demand decreased by 5,500 tons. Although there is demand resilience, external demand concerns remain, and it is expected to continue the weakening trend in oscillation [34]. - For iron ore, supply and demand both weakened. Steel mill production declined, and ore demand is expected to fall. The domestic port ore arrival increased, and overseas supply remained high. Under the game of multiple and short factors, the ore price will continue the weak oscillation operation [35].

Report Overview - The report provides daily strategy references and analyzes various industries and commodities, including macro finance, non - ferrous metals, black metals, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It offers trend judgments and trading suggestions for each product. 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no clear overall industry investment rating provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - As the key nodes of domestic and international macro - events in September approach, the stock index is expected to experience increased volatility. It is recommended to moderately reduce positions and adjust the layout to be mainly long - oriented [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning restricts the upward space [1]. - The probability of a September interest rate cut remains high, providing short - term support for gold prices [1]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Macro Finance - **Stock Index**: After continuous strong and volume - increasing rises, market volatility is amplified by rapid capital flow. With the approaching of September's macro - event nodes, volatility is expected to intensify. Suggest reducing positions moderately and adjusting to a long - biased layout [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but short - term central bank interest rate risk warnings suppress the upward space, showing a volatile trend [1]. - **Gold**: The high probability of a September interest rate cut supports gold prices in the short term [1]. - **Silver**: Market risk appetite cools down, and silver prices may fluctuate [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Recent market sentiment is volatile, and copper prices are oscillating [1]. - **Aluminum**: In the domestic consumption off - season, downstream demand is under pressure, and aluminum prices are weak. For alumina, production and inventory are both increasing, with a weak fundamental situation. There is an opportunity to lay out long positions in the far - month contracts [1]. - **Zinc**: Short - term macro sentiment has improved, and zinc prices have rebounded, but the domestic fundamental pressure is still large, and the upward space may be limited [1]. - **Nickel**: Macro sentiment is volatile. Nickel prices follow the macro trend in the short term. It is recommended to focus on short - term trading and look for opportunities to sell on rallies. In the long - term, the surplus of primary nickel still exerts pressure [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: Raw material prices have risen, and social inventories are stable. After profit repair, steel mills are resuming production. It is recommended to focus on short - term trading and wait for opportunities to sell on rallies. The cash - and - carry arbitrage can gradually take profits [1]. - **Tin**: Powell's dovish remarks improve macro sentiment and boost tin prices. The short - term supply and demand are both weak. Attention should be paid to the expected seasonal maintenance of Yunnan smelters [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Supply in the southwest and northwest is resuming, and there is high hedging pressure. The market sentiment is strong. There is an expectation of long - term capacity reduction, low terminal installation willingness, and considerable profits [1]. - **Polysilicon**: Resource - end disturbances occur frequently. Downstream short - term replenishment is large, but the subsequent replenishment space is limited [1]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Short - term macro sentiment has improved, and the price has rebounded, but the domestic fundamental pressure is still large, and the upward space may be limited [1]. Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil**: Valuations have returned to neutral, the industrial driving force is unclear, and the macro - driving force is positive, showing a volatile trend [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The "anti - involution" is long - term, and it follows the black metal sector in the short term [1]. - **Manganese Silicon and Silicon Iron**: They follow the black metal sector in the short term. The "anti - involution" is long - term. The reality is weak, and the market returns to trading fundamentals, with the near - term being weak and the far - term being strong [1]. - **Glass**: The reality is weak, expectations have declined, and prices are moving downward [1]. - **Soda Ash**: Steel inventory is accumulating faster than the seasonal norm. The market suppresses steel prices to balance supply and demand. Coke and coking coal fundamentals are weakening marginally and are expected to be volatile and weak [1]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Indonesia's low inventory and high export quotes, along with the main consumption countries' peak - season stocking and the long - term "strong expectation" of B50 implementation, are positive factors. The less - than - expected exemption from the US for small refineries is seen as a "bad news is out" situation [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: There is an expectation of reduced soybean arrivals, a fourth - quarter consumption peak season, and an open export trade flow, leading to a fourth - quarter de - stocking expectation. USDA's August reduction of new - crop area and Sino - US trade relations support the price from the raw material cost side [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: Russian and Ukrainian rapeseed production has decreased, and sunflower seed production in the Black Sea region has also fallen short of expectations. The Ministry of Commerce's initial ruling on Canadian rapeseed dumping and increased customs duty deposit requirements are expected to reduce subsequent rapeseed supply. The risk lies in the possible alleviation of the rapeseed shortage through Australian rapeseed imports [1]. - **Cotton**: Cotton has increased in volume in the short term, with the near - month squeezing - the - shorts logic dominating. The height of the 01 contract is limited. Attention should be paid to the time window from late July to early August and the release of sliding - scale tariff quotas [1]. - **Sugar**: Raw sugar has rebounded with a bottom divergence, combined with peak - season demand. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 5600 - 6000, with limited upward space [1]. - **Corn**: The supply of remaining grain is tightening, but downstream feed enterprises adopt a low - inventory strategy, and deep - processing losses drag down corn demand. Under the expectation of new - season selling pressure, the futures price is expected to oscillate at a low level [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: Sino - US peace - talk expectations and domestic reserve sales are negative for the soybean meal market. The import cost provides support, and the futures price is expected to oscillate in the short term. Attention should be paid to Sino - US policy changes [1]. - **Paper Pulp**: The outer - market quotation has increased. The 11 - contract is under pressure due to old positions. Consider a 11 - 1 reverse spread [1]. - **Log Futures**: Near the delivery, the current price is within the range of receiving and delivery costs, with a reasonable valuation. It is expected to oscillate between 790 - 810 yuan/m³ [1]. - **Live Pigs**: The near - month contract is weak due to spot influence. In the second half of the year, as the inventory gradually recovers, attention should be paid to weight reduction and consumption. The 11 and 01 contracts have peak - season expectations [1]. Energy Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Factors such as India reducing Russian oil purchases, OPEC+ continuing to increase production, and Trump's tariff increase on India cause demand concerns. The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it follows the crude oil trend [1]. - **Asphalt**: The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, following the crude oil trend. The "14th Five - Year Plan" rush - work demand is likely to be falsified, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient [1]. - **Natural Rubber**: Domestic产区 rainfall affects raw material cost support. Inventory depletion is slow. As the commodity approaches the 09 - contract delivery, the short - term market sentiment turns bearish [1]. - **BR Rubber**: OPEC+ continues to increase production, and the crude oil fundamental situation is loose. The BR market is consolidating and rising steadily. Attention should be paid to the inventory levels of butadiene and BR9000 and the autumn maintenance of butadiene rubber plants [1]. - **PTA**: Domestic PTA plants are gradually resuming production, and production has increased. The spread between PX and naphtha has widened. With improved sales and inventory depletion, especially in filament inventory, profits have been significantly repaired. However, some downstream plants have strong maintenance expectations [1]. - **PE**: Export sentiment has eased slightly, and domestic demand is insufficient, limiting the upward space. There is support from "anti - involution" and the cost side. With a warm macro - sentiment, many maintenance activities, and mainly rigid demand, the price is oscillating weakly [1][2]. - **Short - Fiber**: More short - fiber factories are undergoing maintenance. Under the situation of high basis and rising costs, the number of futures market warehouse receipts is gradually increasing [1]. - **Styrene**: There are rumors of a major reform in the domestic petrochemical and refining industries, and South Korean naphtha cracking plants plan to reduce production. As the market strengthens, trading volume gradually weakens [1].