| 铝产业链期现日报 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 价格及价差 | | | | | | | 单位 | | | | 20780 20780 | | | | 元/吨 | | | | 0 20 -20.0 | | | / | 元/肥 | SMM A00铝升贴水 | | | 20770 20780 -10.0 | | | -0.05% | 元/吨 | 长江 铝A00 | | | -10 20 -30.0 | | | / | 元/吨 | 长江 铝A00 升贴水 | | | 3180 3190 -10.0 | | | -0.31% | 元/肥 | 氧化铝(山东)-平均价 | | | 3210 3215 -5.0 | | | -0.16% | 元/吨 | 氧化铝(河南)-平均价 | | | 3205 3215 -10.0 | | | -0.31% | 元/吨 | 氧化铝(山西)-平均价 | | | | | | | | 比价和盈亏 | | | 现值 前值 | | 涨跌 | | 单位 | | | | -1354 | | ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report Macroeconomics - Domestically, although the economic growth rate is showing a marginal slowdown, there is no need for excessive anxiety. A package of economic - stabilizing policies are gradually taking effect, and fiscal expenditure is accelerating. The trend of future economic data remains uncertain and requires continuous tracking of high - frequency data [1]. - Overseas, the possibility of a September interest rate cut remains uncertain. Attention should be focused on changes in US economic data and the policy signals released by Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting [2]. Financial Futures - **Stock Index**: The stock market is in a stage of long - short game. Yesterday, the stock market as a whole pulled back, and the pressure line of the index was not successfully broken. If the trading volume narrows in the future, the decline of small - cap indexes may also widen. Short - term attention should be paid to market sentiment and trading volume adjustment near key points [3]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market showed a weak rebound on Tuesday. If the stock market continues to fluctuate, it will be beneficial for the bond market to stabilize. However, if the stock market rises after consolidation, it will suppress the bond market. It remains to be seen whether the bond market can bottom out [3]. - **Container Shipping**: The freight index (European Line) futures prices showed a trend of first decline and then rebound. EC is likely to continue to fluctuate, and some contracts may rebound at low levels [4][6]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - **Gold & Silver**: Medium - to long - term trends may be bullish, while short - term trends are weak. The strategy is to buy on dips [7][9]. - **Copper**: Prices are mainly in a range - bound state, and it is recommended to make low - level purchases [10]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate; alumina prices are expected to be weakly volatile; casting aluminum alloy prices are expected to fluctuate. It is advisable to consider long - alloy and short - aluminum arbitrage when the price difference widens [11][13]. - **Zinc**: Prices are in a weak state, and short - term trading is mainly range - bound. Consider selling the outer market and buying the inner market for arbitrage [13]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Prices continue to correct, but there is still fundamental support [14]. - **Tin**: Prices are mainly in a range - bound state, with a relatively strong bias [15][16]. - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon**: Polysilicon is expected to be in a range - bound and slightly bullish state, and industrial silicon will also be boosted [16][17]. - **Lead**: Prices have limited upside and downside potential and are mainly in a range - bound state [17]. Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The fundamentals of steel are weakening, with supply increasing and demand decreasing, and inventory accumulation accelerating. Steel prices are expected to be in a range - bound and weakening state [20][21]. - **Iron Ore**: The market is trading on weak demand rather than production restrictions. Iron ore prices are expected to be in a range - bound state [21]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coal - coke market may fluctuate widely with market sentiment. In the future, attention should be paid to the inventory changes of finished steel products [22][23]. - **Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese**: Supply pressure is increasing, and prices may decline. It is recommended to wait and see [23][24]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical support is weakening, and fundamental bearish factors are accumulating. There is an increased risk of a medium - term downward break, and short - term geopolitical developments need to be tracked [25][26]. - **LPG**: The fundamentals have not changed significantly, and the current situation is mainly a game in the near - term contracts [26][28]. - **PTA - PX**: In the short term, the supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and it is recommended to widen the PTA processing margin on dips [29][31]. - **Methanol**: Wait for the opportunity to go long. It is advisable to consider laying out long positions in the far - month contracts after port cargo diversion or an increase in storage fees [32][33]. - **PP**: Prices are in a weak range - bound state. The future trend depends on demand changes [34][35]. - **PE**: Prices are in a range - bound state in the short term, and the future trend depends on the progress of downstream demand recovery [36][37]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: Prices are in a range - bound state. For styrene, short - term unilateral short - selling should be cautious, and consider narrowing the price difference between pure benzene and styrene on rallies [37][39]. - **Fuel Oil**: Prices remain weak, and the short - term driving force is downward [39][40]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The crack spread is strengthening, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [40][41]. - **Asphalt**: The price center has shifted downward. In the short term, the fundamentals have weakened, and in the long - term, attention should be paid to the progress of specific "anti - involution" measures for the asphalt industry chain [42][43]. - **Rubber & 20 - Number Rubber**: RU2501 is expected to be in a weak range - bound state. Pay attention to the support level around 15,500. Consider widening the price difference between deep - colored and light - colored rubber on dips [43][45]. - **Urea**: Prices are in a pattern with support below and pressure above, and the 09 contract is expected to fluctuate between 1,650 and 1,850 [46][47]. - **Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda**: - **Soda Ash**: The supply - demand pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged, and attention should be paid to the price fluctuations of coal and raw salt [47][48]. - **Glass**: The market is in a weak equilibrium state. Pay attention to policy instructions and short - term emotional changes [49]. - **Caustic Soda**: Pay attention to the improvement of downstream demand and the enthusiasm for downstream inventory replenishment [50]. - **Pulp**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [50][51]. - **Logs**: Prices are in a reasonable range - bound state, with limited possibility of significant price changes [51]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Macroeconomics - **Domestic**: The cumulative growth rate of the national general public budget from January to July turned positive for the first time, and stamp duty increased by 20.7%. Fiscal expenditure is accelerating, and economic - stabilizing policies are taking effect [1]. - **Overseas**: The possibility of a September interest rate cut in the US remains uncertain. The Jackson Hole Annual Meeting is an important window to observe policy trends [2]. Financial Futures Stock Index - **Market Review**: Yesterday, the stock index pulled back with reduced trading volume, and small - cap indexes had relatively smaller decline rates. The trading volume of the two markets decreased by 175.794 billion yuan [3]. - **Important Information**: From September 1, new conditions for personal pension withdrawals will be added [3]. - **Core Logic**: The index pressure line was not broken, and the large - cap index declined more. If trading volume narrows, small - cap indexes may also decline more [3]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Performance**: On Tuesday, bond futures fluctuated at a low level and finally closed up across the board, showing a weak rebound [3]. - **Core Logic**: The central bank made large - scale injections, and the bond market got a breather due to the stock market's consolidation. Whether the bond market can bottom out remains to be seen [3]. Container Shipping - **Market Review**: Yesterday, the container shipping index (European Line) futures prices first declined slightly and then rebounded [4][6]. - **Important Information**: Hamas made concessions on the cease - fire plan, and some shipping companies adjusted their European Line quotes [4][5]. - **Core Logic**: Geopolitical risks decreased, but the reduction in the decline of MSK's European Line spot - cabin quotes was positive for prices. EC is likely to continue to fluctuate [4][6]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - **Gold & Silver** - **Market Review**: On Tuesday, the precious metals market was in a weak state. COMEX gold 2512 contract closed at $3,358.9 per ounce, down 0.57%; US silver 2509 contract closed at $37.33 per ounce, down 1.84% [7]. - **Core Logic**: Market focus is on the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting. Long - term trends may be bullish, while short - term trends are weak [7][9]. - **Copper** - **Market Review**: The Shanghai copper index was in a range - bound state on Tuesday, with low trading volume and stable decline in open interest [10]. - **Core Logic**: Short - term prices are likely to continue to fluctuate, and the previous support level can be raised [10]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain** - **Market Review**: The previous trading day, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum closed at 20,545 yuan per ton, down 0.19% [10]. - **Core Logic**: Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate; alumina prices are expected to be weakly volatile; casting aluminum alloy prices are expected to fluctuate [11][13]. - **Zinc** - **Market Review**: The previous trading day, the main contract of Shanghai zinc closed at 22,205 yuan per ton, down 0.69% [13]. - **Core Logic**: Supply is gradually shifting from tight to surplus, demand is weak, and there is a risk of short - term range - bound trading [13]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel** - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai nickel closed at 120,330 yuan per ton, down 0.37%; the main contract of stainless steel closed at 12,885 yuan per ton, down 1.07% [14]. - **Core Logic**: Prices continue to correct, but there is still fundamental support [14]. - **Tin** - **Market Review**: The Shanghai tin index strengthened in the afternoon on Tuesday, closing at 26.8 yuan per ton [14]. - **Core Logic**: Prices are mainly in a range - bound state, with a relatively strong bias [15][16]. - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon** - **Market Review**: On Tuesday, the main contract of industrial silicon futures closed at 8,625 yuan per ton, up 0.23% [16]. - **Core Logic**: Polysilicon is expected to be in a range - bound and slightly bullish state, and industrial silicon will also be boosted [16][17]. - **Lead** - **Market Review**: The previous trading day, the main contract of Shanghai lead closed at 16,825 yuan per ton, up 0.30% [17]. - **Core Logic**: Prices have limited upside and downside potential and are mainly in a range - bound state [17]. Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil** - **Market Review**: Prices are in a weak downward trend [20]. - **Important Information**: Steel mills adjusted scrap purchase prices, and some steel mills received environmental protection production restriction notices [20]. - **Core Logic**: Supply increases, demand decreases, inventory accumulates, and prices are expected to be in a range - bound and weakening state [20][21]. - **Iron Ore** - **Market Review**: Iron ore prices are in a weak state, with five consecutive days of decline [21]. - **Important Information**: There are vehicle restrictions and an increase in blast furnace maintenance in Hebei [21]. - **Core Logic**: The market is trading on weak demand, and iron ore prices are expected to be in a range - bound state [21]. - **Coking Coal and Coke** - **Market Review**: Prices are in a range - bound and declining state [21]. - **Important Information**: There are rainfall and high - temperature weather, and some steel mills received environmental protection production restriction notices [22]. - **Core Logic**: The market may fluctuate widely with sentiment, and attention should be paid to finished steel inventory changes [22][23]. - **Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese** - **Market Review**: Supply is increasing, and prices may decline [23]. - **Core Logic**: Supply pressure is increasing, and prices may decline due to the game between strong expectations and weak reality [23][24]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil** - **Market Review**: Overnight, the crude oil futures prices declined slightly [25]. - **Important Information**: There are developments in the geopolitical situation and changes in oil - buying sources in India [25]. - **Core Logic**: Geopolitical support is weakening, and fundamental bearish factors are accumulating [25][26]. - **LPG** - **Market Review**: LPG futures prices declined slightly [26]. - **Important Information**: Some refineries had maintenance and restart operations [27]. - **Core Logic**: Fundamentals have not changed significantly, and it is a near - term contract game [26][28]. - **PTA - PX** - **Market Review**: PX - PTA prices are in a range - bound state [29]. - **Core Logic**: In the short term, the supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and it is recommended to widen the PTA processing margin on dips [29][31]. - **Methanol** - **Market Review**: The methanol 09 contract declined [32]. - **Core Logic**: Wait for the opportunity to go long after port cargo diversion or an increase in storage fees [32][33]. - **PP** - **Market Review**: PP prices are in a weak range - bound state [34]. - **Core Logic**: The future trend depends on demand changes [34][35]. - **PE** - **Market Review**: PE prices are in a range - bound state [36]. - **Core Logic**: The future trend depends on the progress of downstream demand recovery [36][37]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene** - **Market Review**: Prices are in a range - bound state [37][38]. - **Core Logic**: For styrene, short - term unilateral short - selling should be cautious, and consider narrowing the price difference between pure benzene and styrene on rallies [37][39]. - **Fuel Oil** - **Market Review**: Fuel oil prices remain weak [39]. - **Core Logic**: The short - term driving force is downward [39][40]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil** - **Market Review**: The crack spread is strengthening [40]. - **Core Logic**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [40][41]. - **Asphalt** - **Market Review**: Asphalt prices have declined [42]. - **Core Logic**: In the short term, the fundamentals have weakened, and in the long - term, attention should be paid to the progress of specific "anti - involution" measures for the asphalt industry chain [42][43]. - **Rubber & 20 - Number Rubber** - **Market Review**: Rubber prices declined [43]. - **Core Logic**: RU2501 is expected to be in a weak range - bound state. Pay attention to the support level around 15,500 [43][45]. - **Urea** - **Market Review**: Urea prices rose [46]. - **Core Logic**: Prices are in a pattern with support below and pressure above, and the 09 contract is expected to fluctuate between 1,650 and 1,850 [46][47]. - **Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda** - **Soda Ash** - **Market Review**: The soda ash 2601 contract declined [47]. - **Core Logic**: The supply - demand pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged [47][48]. - **Glass** - **Market Review**: The glass 2601 contract declined [49]. - **Core Logic**: The market is in a weak equilibrium state. Pay attention to policy instructions and short - term emotional changes [49]. - **Caustic Soda** - **Market Review**: The caustic soda 2601 contract declined [50]. - **Core Logic**: Pay attention to the improvement of downstream demand and the enthusiasm for downstream inventory replenishment [50]. - **Pulp** - **Market Review**: The main contract of pulp declined [50]. - **Core Logic**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [50][51]. - **Logs** - **Market Review**: The main contract of logs declined [51]. - **Core Logic**: Prices are in a reasonable range - bound state, with limited possibility of significant price changes [51].

Report Summary 1. Market Performance on August 18, 2025 - **Stock Index Futures**: A-share market showed strong performance. The Shanghai Composite Index reached a ten-year high since August 2015, the Northbound 50 hit a record high, and the Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index both exceeded their October 8, 2024 highs. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.85% to 3728.03 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.73% to 11835.57 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 2.84% to 2606.20 points. The trading volume of the two markets reached 2764.2 billion yuan, a significant increase of 519.6 billion yuan from the previous trading day. The CSI 300 Index closed at 4239.41, up 37.06 [1][2] - **Coke and Coking Coal Futures**: Coke weighted index oscillated weakly, closing at 1693.3, down 22.8. Coking coal weighted index was also weak, closing at 1174.0 yuan, down 34.1 [3][4] - **Other Futures**: - Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract rose due to stable spot prices and capital factors, despite the decline of US sugar on Friday. - Shanghai Rubber oscillated and adjusted due to large short - term gains, technical factors, and the decline of crude oil prices. - Palm Oil 2601 contract closed with a small increase, and the expected export volume from Malaysia from August 1 - 15 increased by 34.5% compared to the same period last month. - Shanghai Copper closed slightly down 0.01%, with limited macro - guidance and increased social inventory dragging down the price, but potential restocking demand restricted the decline. - Iron Ore 2601 contract closed down 0.64% at 772 yuan, with supply tightening and high iron - water production leading to a short - term oscillating trend. - Asphalt 2510 contract closed up 0.06% at 3473 yuan, with short - term demand difficult to improve and prices oscillating. - Cotton: Zhengzhou Cotton's night - session main contract closed at 14130 yuan/ton, and the cotton inventory decreased by 87 lots. - Logs: The 25091 contract opened at 817, closed at 811, and decreased by 1105 lots. The spot price in Shandong remained unchanged. - Steel: rb2510 closed at 3155 yuan/ton, hc2510 closed at 3419 yuan/ton. Steel futures may face short - term pressure due to poor fundamental improvement. - Alumina: ao2601 closed at 3171 yuan/ton, with supply expected to be in surplus in the second half of the year and prices oscillating. - Shanghai Aluminum: al2510 closed at 20595 yuan/ton. The expansion of US tariffs on aluminum derivatives affected the price, but the probability of a trend reversal is low [1][5][8] 2. Fundamental Information Coke - The sixth round of price increase has been implemented. The overseas demand for US Treasury bonds is resilient, with foreign investors' holdings reaching a new high in June, while India and Ireland's holdings declined. - Raw material inventory has increased. The current iron - water production is 240.66 tons, an increase of 0.34 tons. The coal mine inventory has no pressure, and the inventory has shifted downstream. The total coking coal inventory is increasing. - The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants is 20 yuan/ton [5] Coking Coal - The price of Tangshan Mongolian 5 coking coal is 1230, equivalent to 1010 on the futures market. - The central bank's second - quarter monetary policy report aims to promote a reasonable increase in prices. - The mine - end inventory has increased, and the coking coal inventory has shifted downstream. The cumulative import growth rate has declined for three consecutive months, and the inventory is moderately high [5] Other Commodities - **Soybean Meal**: The supply of imported soybeans is abundant, and the oil - mill operating rate is high, with high inventory. The Brazilian premium has slightly declined, but the high price of US soybeans keeps the import cost high. There is an expected supply shortage in the fourth quarter [7] - **Pig**: It is currently the off - season for pork consumption, with weak terminal demand. The supply of suitable pigs has increased, and the overall situation is one of loose supply and demand [7] - **Palm Oil**: The expected export volume from Malaysia from August 1 - 15 increased significantly compared to the same period last month [8] - **Copper**: The social inventory increased at the beginning of the week, dragging down the price, but the potential restocking demand of downstream processing enterprises restricts the decline [8] - **Iron Ore**: The global shipment and arrival volume of iron ore decreased last week, and the iron - water production is at a relatively high level, resulting in a short - term oscillating price [8] - **Asphalt**: The capacity utilization rate increased last week, but the shipment volume decreased. The demand is affected by weather and funds, and the price is oscillating [9] - **Logs**: The import volume in July decreased year - on - year, and the futures price is affected by the increase in external quotes. The spot trading is weak [10] - **Steel**: The weekly output of five major steel products has increased for three consecutive weeks, the inventory has accumulated faster, and the apparent demand has declined to a new low since early March [11] - **Alumina**: The domestic operating capacity is high, the import window opens intermittently, and the supply is expected to be in surplus in the second half of the year, with inventory increasing [11] - **Aluminum**: The expansion of US tariffs on aluminum derivatives affects China's exports, but the impact is weaker than before. Considering the expected peak season in September and the expected interest - rate cut, the probability of a trend reversal is low [11]

南华期货聚酯产业周报（20250817） ——旺季预期初见端倪，关注订单启动情况 戴一帆（投资咨询资格证证号：Z0015428 ） 周嘉伟（期货从业资格证证号：F03133676 ） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 周度观点 MEG周度观点：旺季预期初见端倪，关注订单启动情况 【库存】华东港口库至55.3万吨，环比上期增加3.7万吨。 【装置】盛虹190w近期短停后重启；浙石化二期一线80w重启出料；神华榆林40w近期降负检修。海外方 面，沙特Sharq3一套55w近期再次停车。 【观点】 乙二醇价格近期以区间震荡为主。基本面方面，供应端油降煤升，总负荷降至66.39%（-2.01%）；其 中，乙烯制方面，盛虹空分影响短停后重启，预计影响1-2万吨产量；浙石化一线重启后提负；煤制方面神华 榆林降负检修，通辽金煤、中化学等装置重启后提负，煤制负荷升至80.47%（+5.33%）；后续仍有部分检修 量预期回归，若无意外，负荷仍将继续上调。效益方面，原料端原油小幅走弱，乙烯小幅走强，动力煤价格 小幅走强，煤制利润继续压缩。库存方面，本周到港计划偏多，港口发货不佳，下周一港口显性库存预计累 库3万吨 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Futures are oscillating warmly, but the sentiment of the spot market is not significantly boosted. The prices of producers are mostly stable, and traders are mainly focused on active sales. Downstream procurement remains cautious, with purchases based on low - price and just - in - time needs. - The upstream device operating load continues to increase. Although the PP maintenance loss is still at a high level, the impact of maintenance is decreasing. With the approaching of new capacity release plans, the pressure of supply increase is gradually emerging. - The downstream factories are still affected by the off - season, and the willingness to stock up is low. It is expected that the demand will gradually emerge from the off - season in the second half of the month. - The cost - side support is somewhat differentiated. Coal prices are likely to rise, while oil prices may fall again. - The fundamental loose pattern will continue to restrict the upward space. With the release of new capacity and the expected stocking demand in the "Golden September" peak season in the second half of the month, the polyolefin prices may show a trend of bottom - building through oscillation followed by a rebound [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - **Futures Market**: The plastic 2509 contract closed at 7314 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton (0.27%), with a trading volume of 176,000 lots and a decrease in positions. The PP main contract closed at 7095 yuan/ton, up 29 yuan (0.41%), with a decrease in positions. - **Supply**: The upstream device operating load is increasing. The impact of PP maintenance is decreasing, and new capacity release plans are approaching. For PE, new capacity has been put into operation in July, and more is expected in August. - **Demand**: Downstream factories are in the off - season, with low stocking willingness. It is expected that demand will improve in the second half of the month. - **Cost**: Coal prices are likely to rise, while oil prices may fall [4]. 3.2 Industry News - On August 11, 2025, the inventory level of major producers was 835,000 tons, a 12.08% increase from the previous working day, the same as the same period last year. - The PE market prices fluctuated slightly. The LLDPE prices in North, East, and South China were in the ranges of 7180 - 7410 yuan/ton, 7200 - 7650 yuan/ton, and 7320 - 7700 yuan/ton respectively [5]. 3.3 Data Overview - **Futures Market Data**: Tables show the opening, closing, highest, lowest prices, price changes, price change rates, open interest, and open interest changes of plastic and PP futures contracts [3]. - **Other Data**: Graphs present information such as L and PP basis, L - PP spread, and crude oil futures settlement prices. The mainstream price of propylene in the Shandong market increased by 245 yuan/ton to 6500 - 6580 yuan/ton. The PP market was slightly adjusted, with different price ranges in North, East, and South China [7][8].

2025年06月30日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 观点与策略 | 铜：美元弱势，支撑价格 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 锌：短期高位，关注量价 | 4 | | 铅：存旺季预期，支撑价格 | 5 | | 镍：矿端支撑有所松动，冶炼端限制上方弹性 | 6 | | 不锈钢：库存边际小幅去化，钢价修复但弹性有限 | 6 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 【基本面跟踪】 铜基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铜主力合约 | 79,920 | 1.31% | 79920 | 0.00% | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 9,879 | -0.17% | - | - | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 期 货 | 沪铜主力合约 | 131,756 | 54,456 | 215,705 | 24,565 | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 17,846 | -13,562 | 2 ...