1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation" [5] 2. Core View of the Report - The weakening expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut and the lingering stagflation risk, along with cautious expectations for the peak season, inventory pressure in the industrial chain, and limited bright spots in the fundamentals, result in insufficient upward drive for the market. However, due to uncertainties in geopolitical conflicts, fluctuations in coking coal and coke prices following crude oil, continuous disturbances in the iron ore supply, tightened liquidity expectations for some spot varieties, and the expected increase in hot metal production, there is still support at the cost end. Attention should be paid to geopolitical and iron ore supply disturbances [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - **Iron Ore**: In the short term, it is expected to oscillate due to supply and geopolitical disturbances. In the long - term, the high inventory pressure is difficult to ease, maintaining a loose pattern. If macro disturbances weaken, the fundamental pressure will be greater, and the medium - term performance is expected to be weakly oscillating [1] - **Scrap Steel**: The short - term supply - demand weakness has marginally improved, with demand recovery slightly faster than supply, providing some support for prices. It is expected to follow the rise of finished product prices in the short term, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of the price rebound of finished products and the actual recovery progress of terminal demand [8] 3.2 Carbon Element - **Coke**: In the short term, both supply and demand are increasing, with hot metal复产 possibly faster. The cost - end price has risen, and the spot support is strong. The futures market is expected to follow the cost - end coking coal [2][10] - **Coking Coal**: The resumption of coal mines is still restricted, and the actual pressure on the fundamentals remains due to high Mongolian coal imports. The spot price is unlikely to rise significantly. The futures price is affected by macro expectations and geopolitical conflicts. It may be strong if the geopolitical conflict persists, and oscillate if it eases [2][11] 3.3 Alloys - **Ferromanganese Silicon**: The supply - demand situation remains loose, with high upstream inventory and resistance in cost transmission. There is significant selling pressure on the futures market, and the high - level valuation above the cost line has a callback risk [2][15] - **Silicon Iron**: The market inventory pressure is limited, and the supply - demand contradiction is not significant. However, the continuous repair of profits may accelerate the resumption of production, making the supply - demand relationship gradually turn loose and suppressing the upward price space. The current futures valuation is much higher than the comprehensive cost, and there is a risk of a high - level callback [2][17] 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: There are still expectations of supply disturbances, but the inventory of middle and downstream is moderately high. The current supply - demand is still in surplus. If production and sales do not improve continuously, high inventory will always suppress prices [2][5][12] - **Soda Ash**: The supply is stable at a high level in the short term, and the overall supply - demand is in surplus. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long term, the supply surplus pattern will intensify, and the price center will decline, promoting capacity reduction [2][5][14] 3.5 Steel - The inventory pressure remains, and the upward drive is limited. The spot trading volume is average. After the weakening of environmental protection restrictions, hot metal production is expected to rise, and the overall supply of five major steel products is expected to recover from a low level. The demand shows resilience but lacks bright spots. The inventory is moderately high, and it will take time to ease the fundamental contradictions. The price upward drive is limited, and attention should be paid to geopolitical disturbances and peak - season demand [7] 3.6 Commodity Index - On March 18, 2026, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures was 2581.98, down 0.38%; the commodity 20 index was 2916.20, down 0.36%; the industrial product index was 2557.35, down 0.31%. The steel industry chain index on March 18, 2026, had a daily increase of 0.08%, a 5 - day increase of 1.25%, a 1 - month increase of 4.31%, and a year - to - date increase of 1.80% [103][105]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the industry is "oscillation" [5] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Geopolitical conflicts increase energy valuation, and the expectation of stable growth provides support for domestic demand. Steel mills are expected to resume production during the peak season, leading to strong cost support and firm prices in the sector. However, there are still inventory contradictions in steel products, and the peak - season expectations are cautious. High inventory pressure in iron ore is difficult to relieve, Mongolian coal imports are high, the supply - demand surplus in glass and soda ash remains unchanged, and the fundamentals of alloys provide limited support. Thus, the upward potential of the futures prices is restricted [1] - In the off - season, the fundamentals lack highlights, and the peak - season expectations are cautious. The upward driving force from the real - world situation is limited. Uncertainties such as domestic and overseas macro - expectations and geopolitical disturbances still exist, and the futures prices may fluctuate sharply. Attention should be paid to geopolitical risks and the fulfillment of peak - season demand [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - Iron ore: The supply - side shipping has recovered but there are still expectations of disruptions. The high inventory pressure is difficult to relieve in the short term. With the Two Sessions and geopolitical disturbances, there are still macro uncertainties. Recently, commodities have shown strength. If macro disturbances weaken, the fundamental pressure on iron ore will be greater, and it is expected to oscillate weakly [1][8] - Scrap steel: The supply - demand pattern of the short - term scrap steel market, which was previously weak in both supply and demand, has marginally improved. The demand recovery rhythm is slightly faster than the supply, and the fundamentals provide some support for the price. Driven by the rise in finished - product prices, it is expected to follow the upward trend in the short term [9] 3.2 Carbon Element - Coke: In the short term, there are disturbances in hot metal production, but there is still long - term rigid demand support for coke. The possibility of multiple consecutive rounds of price cuts after the first round of spot price cuts is small. The futures prices are expected to follow the cost - side coking coal. If the geopolitical conflict persists, it may follow the energy prices and show strength; if the conflict eases, it is expected to maintain an oscillating operation [2][10] - Coking coal: The resumption of coal mine production is still restricted, but there is still real - world fundamental pressure on coking coal due to high Mongolian coal imports. The spot prices are expected to oscillate. The current futures prices are greatly affected by domestic and overseas macro - expectations and geopolitical conflicts. If the conflict persists, it may follow the crude oil prices and show strength; if the conflict eases, it is expected to maintain an oscillating operation [2][12] 3.3 Alloys - Manganese silicon: The supply - demand of the manganese silicon market is loose, the upstream inventory is high, and there are obstacles in cost transmission. There is obvious selling - hedging pressure above the futures prices. Attention should be paid to the risk of price correction when the futures prices rise above the cost line [2][15] - Ferrosilicon: Currently, there is not much supply - demand contradiction in ferrosilicon, but the continuous repair of profits may accelerate the resumption of production by manufacturers, making the supply - demand relationship gradually turn loose. The current futures valuation is higher than the comprehensive cost of ferrosilicon, and attention should be paid to the risk of high - level price correction [2][17] 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: There are still expectations of supply disruptions, but the inventories of middle - and downstream enterprises are moderately high. Fundamentally, the current supply - demand is still in surplus. If the production and sales cannot improve continuously, the high inventory will always suppress the price [2][13] - Soda ash: The supply is stable at a high level in the short term, and the overall supply - demand is still in surplus. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long run, the supply - surplus pattern will further intensify, the price center will continue to decline, and capacity reduction will be promoted [2][15] 3.5 Specific Product Analysis - Steel: There is still cost support, and the futures prices have risen slightly. After the festival, downstream demand has gradually started, and price rebounds have stimulated the entry of futures - spot traders and rigid - demand replenishment. However, the overall supply level is low, demand is at a low level, and inventories are accumulating. The upward potential of prices is limited, and attention should be paid to the peak - season demand [7] - Iron ore: The fundamentals have limited changes, and the futures prices oscillate. Overseas mine shipping has decreased, arrivals have increased, demand has declined in the short term but is expected to recover seasonally later. The inventory has increased slightly, and the futures prices oscillate. If macro disturbances weaken, the fundamentals will face greater pressure [7][8] - Scrap steel: The supply - demand has marginally improved, and the spot prices have risen slightly. Supply recovery is slow, demand has recovered faster, and inventories have decreased. It is expected to follow the upward trend in the short term, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of the finished - product price rebound and the actual recovery progress of terminal demand [9] - Coke: The fundamentals have limited changes, and the futures prices follow the oscillation. After the first round of price cuts, supply has decreased slightly, demand has rigid support, and inventories have accumulated at a slower pace. The futures prices follow the cost - side coking coal [10] - Coking coal: There is still a geopolitical premium, and the futures prices follow the oscillation. Supply has basically recovered, imports are high, and downstream procurement enthusiasm is general. The spot prices are expected to oscillate, and the futures prices are affected by macro and geopolitical factors [12] - Glass: The improvement in sentiment has driven the production and sales of spot products, and the upstream expects to reduce inventories. Supply may decline in the long term, demand has not fully recovered, and middle - stream inventories are large, suppressing the futures valuation. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [13] - Soda ash: Driven by the increase in energy costs, the price center has rebounded. Supply is stable at a high level, demand is stable, and the supply - demand fundamentals have not changed significantly. It is expected to oscillate in the short term and decline in the long term [13][15] - Manganese silicon: The cost remains high, and the futures prices oscillate strongly. The cost has support, supply is relatively loose, demand recovery is slow, and there is selling - hedging pressure above the futures prices. Attention should be paid to the risk of price correction [15] - Ferrosilicon: The futures valuation is high, and attention should be paid to the risk of price correction. The cost has support, demand recovery is slow, supply is expected to increase, and the current futures valuation is higher than the cost. Attention should be paid to the risk of high - level price correction [17] 3.6 Index Information - On March 11, 2026, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures was 2565.65, a decrease of 0.28%; the commodity 20 index was 2921.03, a decrease of 0.32%; the industrial products index was 2484.54, a decrease of 1.01% [102] - The steel industry chain index on March 11, 2026, had a daily increase of 0.06%, a 5 - day increase of 1.85%, a 1 - month decrease of 0.24%, and a year - to - date decrease of 0.55% [104]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⿊⾊建材策略⽇报 2026-03-11 地缘⻛险溢价回吐，盘⾯存在调整压⼒ 4. 玻璃纯碱：玻璃供应仍有扰动预期，但中游下游库存中性偏高， 基本面来看当前供需仍旧过剩，若产销不能持续好转，则高库存始终 压制价格。纯碱供应短期高位稳定，整体供需仍旧过剩，预计短期以 震荡为主，长期来看供给过剩格局进一步加剧，价格中枢仍将下行， 地缘⻛险溢价回吐，能源相关品种估值⾼位回调，叠加淡季现实乏善 可陈，钢材库存⽭盾仍存，铁矿⽯⾼库存压⼒难以缓解，蒙煤进⼝数 量⾼企，玻纯供需过剩未改，合⾦基本⾯⽀撑不⾜，且旺季预期仍偏 谨慎，盘⾯价格⾃⾼位有所回落。 地缘风险溢价回吐，能源相关品种估值高位回调，叠加淡季现实乏善 可陈，钢材库存矛盾仍存，铁矿石高库存压力难以缓解，蒙煤进口数 量高企，玻纯供需过剩未改，合金基本面支撑不足，且旺季预期仍偏 谨慎，盘面价格自高位有所回落。 1. 铁元素方面：供应端发运恢复但仍存扰动预期，高库存压力短期 难以缓解，两会召开叠加地缘政治扰动较多，宏观仍存不确定性，近 期商品表现偏强，若宏观扰动弱化则铁矿基本面压力仍较大，铁矿预 计震荡偏弱。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "Oscillation" [5] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Geopolitical risks have intensified, leading to an increase in energy valuations and rising shipping costs, which strengthen the cost - side support and drive up the prices of the black building materials sector. However, the current situation in the off - season is lackluster. There are still inventory contradictions in steel, high inventory pressure in iron ore is difficult to alleviate, Mongolian coal imports remain high, the supply - demand surplus in the glass and soda ash market remains unchanged, and the fundamentals of alloys lack support. The expectation for the peak season is still cautious, causing prices to fall after a short - term increase [1]. - With many disturbances such as domestic and overseas macro - expectations and geopolitical conflicts, if the geopolitical conflicts continue, the futures prices will still have an upward drive. But as it is still the off - season, the fundamentals lack highlights, and the peak - season expectation is cautious. Once the external disturbances weaken, there will be a risk of price correction at high levels. Attention should be paid to geopolitical risks and the realization of peak - season demand [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - **Iron Ore**: Overseas mine shipments have decreased month - on - month, while arrivals have significantly increased. The high inventory pressure is difficult to ease in the short term. With the Two Sessions and geopolitical disturbances, there are uncertainties in the macro environment. If macro disturbances weaken, the fundamental pressure on iron ore will be large. It is expected to oscillate weakly [1][7][8]. - **Scrap Steel**: The supply - demand pattern of the scrap steel market has marginally improved, with demand recovering slightly faster than supply. The fundamentals provide some support for prices. Driven by the rise in finished - product prices, scrap steel is expected to follow the upward trend in the short term. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of the rebound in finished - product prices and the actual recovery progress of terminal demand [1][9]. 3.2 Carbon Element - **Coke**: In the short term, there are disturbances in hot metal production, but there is still long - term rigid demand support for coke. After the first round of spot price cuts, the possibility of continuous multiple - round cuts is small. The futures market is expected to follow the cost - side coking coal. If geopolitical conflicts continue, it may be strong following energy prices; if the conflicts ease, it is expected to oscillate [2][10]. - **Coking Coal**: The resumption of coal mines is still restricted, but the high imports of Mongolian coal put pressure on the fundamentals. Spot prices are expected to oscillate. The current futures prices are affected by many factors such as domestic and overseas macro - expectations and geopolitical conflicts. If the conflicts continue, it may follow the upward trend of crude oil prices; if the conflicts ease, it is expected to oscillate [2][11]. 3.3 Alloys - **Silicomanganese**: The silicomanganese market has strong supply and weak demand, with insufficient fundamental support. There are resistance in cost - side transmission, and high upstream inventory leads to significant selling - hedging pressure on the futures market. When futures prices rise above the cost line, the risk of correction should be guarded against [2][15]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The supply - demand drive in the ferrosilicon market is limited. The continuous repair of industry profits may accelerate the resumption of production by manufacturers, weakening the supply - demand relationship. When the futures valuation recovers above the cost line, the risk of high - level correction should be vigilant [2][16]. 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: There are still expectations of supply disturbances, but the inventories of middle and downstream are moderately high. Currently, the supply - demand is in surplus. If there is no obvious improvement in demand after the Lantern Festival, high inventories will always suppress prices [2][5][12]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply is stable at a high level in the short term, and the overall supply - demand is in surplus. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long run, the supply - surplus pattern will intensify, the price center will decline, and capacity will be reduced [2][5][14]. 3.5 Other Information - **Steel**: The cost support is strong, and the futures market is firm. Spot market transactions have warmed up, but the overall demand is still at a low level. Steel inventory continues to accumulate, and the fundamental contradiction needs time to ease. The futures market has an upward drive but is limited. Attention should be paid to peak - season demand [7]. - **Commodity Index**: On March 9, 2026, the comprehensive index, special index (including commodity index, commodity 20 index, industrial product index), and plate index (such as the steel industry chain index) of CITIC Futures all had different degrees of increase or decline. For example, the comprehensive index increased by 2.93%, the commodity 20 index increased by 2.55%, and the industrial product index increased by 3.87%. The steel industry chain index increased by 2.51% on the day, 3.54% in the past 5 days, - 0.37% in the past month, and 0.37% since the beginning of the year [102][103].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the market trends of various commodities, including financial futures, shipping, non - ferrous metals, black commodities, energy chemicals, and agricultural products. Geopolitical factors, especially the Middle - East conflict, are the core influencing variables, causing significant price fluctuations in multiple markets. Short - term market volatility is high, and the market is mainly driven by geopolitical news. Summary by Category Financial Futures - **Stock Index**: Overseas risk aversion may be transmitted to the A - share market, but the impact is diminishing. Domestic policy signals during the Two Sessions provide support, and the market is in short - term shock repair. Unexpected policies may drive the stock index to strengthen [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The policies of the Two Sessions have a neutral impact on the bond market. If the stock market adjustment intensifies, the bond market may rise due to risk - aversion. Short - term focus should be on the A - share trend and geopolitical situation [2]. Shipping - **Container Shipping on the European Line**: The US - Iran conflict is the core influencing variable, with factors such as blocked shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and postponed Red Sea resumption expectations being positive. However, issues like conflict sustainability, weak demand, and shipping capacity spill - over risks still exist, and short - term market volatility is extremely high [3]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Platinum & Palladium**: The Middle - East conflict and non - farm data affect interest - rate cut expectations. Supply - side cost increases provide a long - term upward basis, but short - term adjustment risks due to postponed interest - rate cut expectations should be watched [4]. - **Gold & Silver**: The recent weakness of precious metals is due to the Middle - East situation weakening interest - rate cut expectations, leading to higher US dollar and bond yields. Short - term technical corrections after geopolitical risk mitigation should be watched [5]. - **Copper**: Last week, the copper price fell from a high, and this week it will be in a game between high inventory and peak - season expectations. The key window to verify the inventory inflection point is in mid - to late March [5]. - **Aluminum**: Geopolitical conflicts dominate the price trend. The US - Israel - Iran conflict affects aluminum supply in the Middle - East, and the price will show different performances under different conflict scenarios [6]. - **Alumina**: The US - Iran conflict has limited impact on the domestic fundamentals, but it follows the rise of aluminum prices. The medium - to long - term oversupply situation remains unchanged [6]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It has a strong follow - up relationship with Shanghai aluminum, and has strong support below [7]. - **Zinc**: Supply may be affected by the Iran situation, and demand - side inventory pressure is large. Short - term metal prices may be suppressed [8]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: The annual nickel ore production estimate has limited impact on the industry chain. The first half of the year has a tight quota. The market is in the post - holiday recovery stage, and the peak - season expectation supports downstream demand [9]. - **Tin**: The Iran situation and non - farm data support the metal. Supply is tight, and demand is starting to resume. High inventory suppresses the price, and attention should be paid to the inventory - reduction speed and the development of the Iran situation [10]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In the short - term, the market's concern about demand has increased, but the long - term downstream demand growth logic remains unchanged [11][12]. - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon**: The industry is at the bottom of the current production - capacity cycle, and attention should be paid to the "anti - involution" process and supply - demand optimization signals [12]. - **Lead**: The current supply - demand situation is weak, and the lead price is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the possible negative feedback on the market during the delivery week [12]. Black Commodities - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: The Iran geopolitical conflict drives up the prices of raw materials, forming cost support. After the Two Sessions, the real - estate policy is stable, and the short - term rebound height is limited [13]. - **Iron Ore**: The near - term price has support due to tight tradable resources, but the upside is limited by high supply, weak demand, and long - term geopolitical structural issues [14]. - **Coking Coal & Coke**: Domestic coal mine复产 and increased Mongolian coal customs clearance bring supply pressure. Coke production may increase, but the terminal steel demand restricts price elasticity [15]. - **Ferrosilicon & Silicomanganese**: The short - term cost support is strengthening, but the weak downstream demand and high inventory of steel products limit the upward space [16]. Energy Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The Middle - East situation is the core trading logic. The US - Iran conflict has led to supply shortages, and the market is highly volatile. Short - term attention should be paid to the Strait of Hormuz navigation and oil - producing countries' inventory changes [17]. - **Fuel Oil**: Chinese exports and the Middle - East conflict affect the Asian gasoline market. The short - term Asian gasoline price difference remains high, and the core drivers are geopolitical situation and Chinese export policies [17]. - **Asphalt**: Supply is expected to increase, and inventory has seasonally accumulated. The asphalt price will follow the cost - end crude oil, and short - term geopolitical factors are the most important [18][19]. - **LPG**: The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is the core trading point. The supply disruption and US cold wave have pushed up the price. The length of the blockade determines the price trend [20]. - **Methanol**: The geopolitical conflict has changed the import expectation, and the MTO profit expansion may drive the methanol price to catch up with the olefin increase [21]. - **Plastic**: The Middle - East situation has led to supply concerns, and the supply - reduction and demand - increase pattern makes the short - term market run strongly [21]. - **Rubber**: Geopolitical conflicts support the synthetic rubber price, which in turn boosts natural rubber. The supply - demand利多 and macro利空 coexist, and short - term geopolitical factors dominate the trend [22]. - **Urea**: The US - Iran war has created a global urea supply gap, and the international price has risen. The domestic market is in a tight balance, and geopolitical risks are the key variables [22]. - **Pure Benzene & Styrene**: The US - Israel - Iran conflict has affected refinery operations. Downstream demand for restocking and export expectations are positive, and the short - term price is driven by geopolitical conflicts [23]. - **Soda Ash**: Supply - side maintenance may increase, and demand is stable but weak. The inventory situation is better than expected. The medium - to long - term supply is expected to be high [24]. - **Glass**: The current production and sales are weak, and the market is in the recovery stage. High inventory and supply return expectations limit the price increase, and demand needs to be verified [25]. - **Caustic Soda**: Supply is sufficient, demand is weak, and the inventory reduction is slow. The market is in a supply - strong and demand - weak pattern, and the price is in a weak and volatile state [26]. Agricultural Products - **Hog**: The current hog market is mainly trading the post - Spring Festival weak - demand reality. The price decline is supported by secondary fattening sentiment, but the upward driving force is weak [27]. - **Oilseeds**: The April China - US negotiation expectation, rising international fertilizer prices, and improved export expectations support the soybean price. The domestic market will follow the US soybean performance in the short - term [28][29]. - **Oils**: The recent strength of the oil market comes from the crude oil and diesel markets. Short - term attention should be paid to the US - Iran conflict and the Strait of Hormuz navigation [29]. - **Cotton**: The current domestic supply - demand tightening expectation supports the cotton price, but the high price difference between domestic and foreign cotton and geopolitical risks put pressure on the upside. The short - term price may be in a narrow - range shock adjustment [30]. - **Sugar**: The market lacks a clear trend - reversal basis, and the core contradiction is low valuation but lack of continuous upward driving force [31]. - **Apple**: The apple futures market is running strongly, driven by both fundamentals and delivery logic. The short - term support is strong [31]. - **Jujube**: The market focus is on the demand side. The post - Spring Festival downstream sales are average, and the price is under pressure and may maintain a low - level shock [32][33].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, copper prices continued to fluctuate at a high level above 100,000 yuan/ton, with the center of copper prices moving slightly lower. The core contradiction in the copper market currently lies in the short - term supply - demand mismatch between high inventories and downstream demand. The inventory accumulation trend has spread globally. In the future, short - term copper prices may maintain high - level fluctuations, with core focus on the inventory inflection point and the intensity of downstream consumption release [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Market Review and Outlook - Macro aspect: The escalation of the US - Iran conflict has increased market risk - aversion sentiment, and the strengthening of the US dollar has suppressed copper prices. China's latest government work report has released positive signals, providing long - term policy support. Supply aspect: The key export channel in the Democratic Republic of the Congo is blocked, but copper mine production is not affected, and the tight situation at the mine end remains. Demand aspect: Downstream enterprises have fully resumed work, and the operating rate of copper processing enterprises has steadily increased, with the degree of spot discount alleviated [2] 2. Factors to Watch - The factors to watch include the intensity of downstream demand recovery, geopolitical changes, and inventory changes [3] 3. Weekly Changes in Fundamental Data This Week | Indicator | Unit | This Week's Latest | Last Week's Same Period | Weekly Change Amount | Weekly Change Rate | Frequency | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Electrolytic copper price (≥99.95%): Shanghai | yuan/ton | 101000 | 101970 | - 970 | - 0.95% | Weekly | | Electrolytic copper premium/discount (≥99.95%): Shanghai | yuan/ton | - 60 | - 250 | 190 | 76.00% | Weekly | | Clean copper concentrate forward spot comprehensive index (TC) | US dollars/dry ton | - 56 | - 51.06 | - 4.94 | - 9.67% | Weekly | | Oxygen - free copper rod price | yuan/ton | 102050 | 103090 | - 1040 | - 1.01% | Weekly | | LME copper inventory | tons | 284325 | 253700 | 30625 | 12.07% | Weekly | | SHFE copper inventory | tons | 425145 | 391529 | 33616 | 8.59% | Weekly | | COMEX copper inventory | short tons | 597938 | 601541 | - 3603 | - 0.60% | Weekly | [3] 4. Futures Market Review - The report shows the price trends of Shanghai copper, London copper, and the Shanghai - London ratio, with data sources including Boyii Master and Steel Union Data [5][6][10] 5. Supply Situation Analysis - The report presents data on copper concentrate forward spot prices, rough copper spot processing average prices, copper concentrate port inventories, domestic electrolytic copper production, and the price change trends of electrolytic copper and scrap copper, with data from Steel Union Terminal [15] 6. Demand Situation Analysis - The report includes data on 1 electrolytic copper premium/discount in Shanghai, copper product prices, copper product capacity utilization rates, refined copper rod trading volumes, Yangshan copper bonded area premiums, and electrolytic copper warehouse receipt bill of lading premiums, with data from iFinD and Steel Union Terminal [17][18][20] 7. Inventory Situation Analysis - The report shows data on electrolytic copper spot inventories and the inventories of three major futures exchanges, with data from Steel Union Terminal and iFinD [23]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The steel market is characterized by strong supply and weak demand, with an emerging inventory accumulation trend. The glass and soda ash markets show divergent trends due to supply disturbances. The double - silicon market has cooled in sentiment, waiting for major steel tenders [1][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash Market Analysis - Glass: The glass futures market fluctuated upward yesterday. Some manufacturers raised prices, and spot - futures traders gradually entered the market, providing short - term support for prices. This week, the daily melting volume of float glass was 151,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.17%, and the manufacturer inventory was 55.518 million heavy boxes, a month - on - month decrease of 2.37% [1] - Soda Ash: The soda ash futures market fluctuated downward yesterday, and downstream demand for spot purchases was limited. This week, the soda ash output was 753,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.11%, and the inventory was 1.5727 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.26% [1] Supply - Demand and Logic - Glass: The supply - demand contradiction in the glass market is still significant. Although some production lines have been gradually cold - repaired, the production reduction is insufficient compared to the decline in rigid demand. With the purchase by spot - futures traders, the inventory pressure has been relieved, and the market has expectations for the peak season after the Spring Festival. Continued attention should be paid to the progress of glass cold - repair [1] - Soda Ash: The supply - demand contradiction in the soda ash market has increased, with supply rebounding month - on - month and demand weakening, leading to a significant increase in inventory. Considering the upcoming release of new production capacity and the expected increase in float glass cold - repair, it is necessary to suppress the production profit of soda ash enterprises to avoid supply - demand imbalance. In the short term, the speculative demand for soda ash has increased under the influence of macro - sentiment. Continued attention should be paid to changes in float glass production lines and the progress of new soda ash production projects [1] Strategy - Glass: Expected to fluctuate - Soda Ash: Expected to fluctuate - No strategies are provided for inter - period and inter - commodity trading [2] Double - Silicon Market Analysis - Silicon Manganese: The market trading returned to rationality yesterday, and the bullish sentiment declined. The silicon manganese futures prices dropped. The price of 6517 silicon manganese in the northern market was 5,630 - 5,730 yuan/ton, and in the southern market was 5,750 - 5,800 yuan/ton [3] - Silicon Ferrosilicon: The silicon ferrosilicon market was weak yesterday. As the steel tenders in January were in progress, traders were actively purchasing, and overall sales were good. The ex - factory price of 72 - grade silicon ferrosilicon in the main production areas was 5,350 - 5,400 yuan/ton, and the price of 75 - grade silicon ferrosilicon was 5,750 - 5,800 yuan/ton [3] Supply - Demand and Logic - Silicon Manganese: The fundamentals of silicon manganese are not favorable. The output is still higher than the demand, and the inventory has increased significantly. The resumption of steel mills after the New Year's Day will help repair the rigid demand for silicon manganese. Currently, the port inventory of manganese ore is low, providing a bottom support for silicon manganese prices. Silicon manganese is expected to fluctuate. Future attention should be paid to the cost support of manganese ore and changes in output [3] - Silicon Ferrosilicon: The fundamental contradictions in the silicon ferrosilicon market have been alleviated compared to the previous period. Enterprises have actively reduced production, and the factory inventory has decreased significantly. Considering the resumption of steel mills after the New Year's Day, the rigid demand for silicon ferrosilicon is expected to improve. Due to the planned implementation of differential electricity prices in Shaanxi, the production cost of silicon ferrosilicon enterprises is expected to increase. Silicon ferrosilicon prices are expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the subsequent inventory reduction, cost changes, and regional policies [3] Strategy - Silicon Manganese: Expected to fluctuate - Silicon Ferrosilicon: Expected to fluctuate [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Oscillating / Polysilicon: Oscillating [4] Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the current production cut scale is insufficient to reverse the inventory accumulation pattern, and it is expected to continue accumulating inventory in Q1 26 during the dry - season. It is advisable to focus on short - selling opportunities after rebounds. For polysilicon, although there may be a situation of "high prices but low trading volume" from January to February, the peak - season expectation cannot be falsified, so it is more advisable to focus on long - buying opportunities at low prices [3][17][18] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon Industry Chain Prices - The Si2605 contract of industrial silicon increased by 190 yuan/ton week - on - week to 8880 yuan/ton. The SMM spot East China oxygen - blown 553 increased by 50 yuan/ton to 9250 yuan/ton, while Xinjiang 99 decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 8700 yuan/ton. The PS2605 contract of polysilicon decreased by 1290 yuan/ton to 58955 yuan/ton. The average transaction price of polysilicon N - type re - feedstock increased by 700 yuan/ton week - on - week to 53900 yuan/ton [10] 2. Intensified Production Cuts in Organic Silicon, Rising Prices of Silicon Wafers and Batteries Industrial Silicon - The main contract of industrial silicon futures fluctuated upward this week. Some large factories in Xinjiang increased production by 2 furnaces and some had 2 furnaces under maintenance, with the total unchanged. Inner Mongolia had 4 furnaces under maintenance, and Gansu increased production by 4 furnaces after previous maintenance. SMM industrial silicon social inventory increased by 0.2 million tons week - on - week, and sample factory inventory increased by 0.31 million tons. The industrial silicon market is in tight balance in December, but may accumulate inventory in Q1 next year if production cuts are not sustained. After the price increase, some large factories started hedging sales, and downstream purchasing enthusiasm was low. Attention should be paid to whether the polysilicon sector will cut production [12] Organic Silicon - The price of organic silicon remained stable this week. Some companies reduced production loads. The overall enterprise start - up rate was 68.33%, with a weekly output of 45200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.42%. The inventory was 44000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2%. With the supply contraction and inventory decline, the price may rise steadily after the pre - festival restocking demand is released [12][13] Polysilicon - The main contract of polysilicon futures fluctuated downward this week. After the establishment of the platform company, the spot price of polysilicon rose again. As of December 25, the factory inventory of polysilicon enterprises was 303,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 10,000 tons. The production schedule in January is not clear, but the shipment volume will be significantly reduced to 60,000 - 80,000 tons. There may be a situation of "high prices but low trading volume" from January to February, but the polysilicon spot is still considered bullish [14] Silicon Wafers - The price of silicon wafers strengthened significantly this week. The expected production volume in December is 45GW and may decline further in January. As of December 25, the inventory of silicon wafer factories was 21.7GW, a week - on - week increase of 0.19GW. Four leading enterprises raised their quotes on the 25th. Attention should be paid to whether batteries and components can pass on the price [15] Battery Cells - The price of battery cells rose rapidly this week due to the rising silver paste price. As of December 22, the inventory of Chinese photovoltaic battery export factories was 10.06GW, a week - on - week increase of 0.62GW. Leading battery cell manufacturers raised their prices again, but the price increase of components was less than expected. If the price cannot be passed on, the start - up rate in January is expected to decline [15] Components - The price of components remained basically stable this week. Affected by the rising battery cell price, component enterprises raised their quotes. The domestic end - of - year installation demand ended, and overseas orders had no significant increase. Professional component factories will start reducing production in January, and the domestic production volume in January may fall below 30GW. As of December 15, the finished - product inventory of Chinese photovoltaic components was 31.7GW, a week - on - week increase of 0.5GW [16] 3. Investment Recommendations - For industrial silicon, although the market rumors and positive sentiment in the commodity market drove the price up, from the fundamental perspective, it is recommended to focus on short - selling opportunities after rebounds. For polysilicon, it is recommended to focus on long - buying opportunities at low prices, but investors should hold positions carefully due to large price fluctuations and risk - control measures from the exchange [3][17][18] 4. Hot News Compilation - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange adjusted the minimum opening order quantity, trading fee standard, and trading limit of polysilicon futures contracts. The Zhihui Photovoltaic adjusted the price limit range and trading margin standard of industrial silicon and polysilicon futures contracts during the New Year holiday in 2026 [19][20] 5. High - Frequency Data Tracking of the Industry Chain - This part mainly includes various data charts of industrial silicon, organic silicon, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components, such as the price, output, inventory, and profit data of each link, with specific data sources provided [21][30][34]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "oscillating" [5] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The container shipping index is affected by macro - disturbances and the advanced full pricing of peak - season expectations, leading to a volatile market. The short - term macro - positive factors, capacity regulation, and multiple rounds of price - support expectations will still support the market. Before the peak - season expectations are disproven, the main contract is likely to maintain a relatively strong oscillation, but the market has already factored in a certain premium [5] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Part One: Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - **Influencing Factors and Their Effects** - **Spot Freight Rates**: They have a negative impact. In late November, MSK quoted 2250, HPL 3150, CMA 3200, YML 2550, and ONE 2600. Airlines' price - increase calls are showing obvious differentiation [5] - **Political and Economic Factors**: They have a neutral impact. In November, capacity has recovered, with available capacity on various US gateway routes increasing by 10 - 15% compared to before. The overall TPEB route capacity is expected to fluctuate between 83% - 88%. After the pre - peak - season concentrated booking rush affected by the expected tariff increase on November 1st, the market demand in November remained healthy [5] - **Capacity Supply**: It has a positive impact. The weekly average capacity deployment in September was 290,000, 245,000 in October, 265,000 in November, and is expected to be 290,000 in December. The overall loading rate is lower than the same period in the past two years [5] - **Demand**: It has a neutral impact. The key influencing factors are the realization of peak - season demand, the sustainability of airlines' strategies, and geopolitical and long - term agreement variables [5] - **Investment Viewpoint**: The market is expected to oscillate [5] - **Trading Strategy**: For both single - side and arbitrage trading, it is recommended to wait and see. Pay attention to geopolitical disturbances and domestic and foreign macro - policy disturbances [5] 3.2 Part Two: Price - The report presents price trends of various container shipping routes such as the European line index, US - West line index, and US - East line index through charts, but no specific text analysis is provided [9] 3.3 Part Two: Static Capacity - **Order Volume**: It shows the order volume and new - order volume of container ships with different loading capacities over the years through charts [15] - **Delivery Volume**: It shows the delivery volume and demolition volume of container ships with different loading capacities over the years through charts [18][19] - **Future Delivery**: It shows the future delivery volume of container ships with different loading capacities in different time periods through charts [24][26] - **Ship Prices**: It includes new - building prices, second - hand ship prices, and scrap prices of container ships with different loading capacities, and presents their trends over the years through charts [31][33][37] - **Existing Capacity**: It shows the existing capacity, age structure, idle and retrofit ratios of container ships through charts [46][49][53] 3.4 Part Three: Dynamic Capacity - **Ship Schedule**: It shows the total capacity deployment and the capacity deployment of different alliances (PA + MSC, GEMINI, OCEAN, MSC) on the Shanghai - European basic port route through charts [61][63][65] - **Desulfurization Tower Installation**: It shows the situation of container ships with installed, being - installed desulfurization towers, including the number of ships and capacity in TEU, as well as the average age and time for installation through charts [71][72][75] - **Average Speed**: It shows the average speed of container ships with different loading capacities over the years through charts [76] - **Idle Capacity**: It shows the idle capacity, idle - ship number, and idle - capacity ratio of container ships through charts [79][80][81]

Group 1 - The domestic futures market shows mixed performance, with the main contract of the shipping index (European line) opening at 1101.6 points and reaching a high of 1159.8 points, reflecting a 4.94% increase [1] - The shipping index (European line) is currently exhibiting a strong upward trend, with institutions providing various outlooks on its future performance [1] - The Eurozone's manufacturing PMI for September is reported at 49.5, falling below expectations and indicating ongoing pressure in the manufacturing sector, particularly in Germany and France [1] Group 2 - The "Istanbul Bridge" vessel has commenced its journey from Ningbo-Zhoushan Port to the UK’s largest container port, marking the launch of the world's first fast shipping route between China and Europe, which is expected to enhance international logistics for high-end manufacturing and cross-border e-commerce [1] - Shipping companies are continuing to lower prices to attract cargo, with Mediterranean Shipping reducing rates to $890/TEU and $1490/FEU, while Hapag-Lloyd has adjusted some voyages to $935/TEU and $1435/FEU [1] - Current market sentiment remains weak, with ongoing pressure on spot prices and limited cargo volume ahead of the holiday season, leading to potential further price reductions if shipping companies do not implement effective capacity reduction measures [2]