2024 年 4 月 29 日 CMB 国际全球市场 | 股票研究 | 公司更新 三一重工 (600031 CH) 2023 年净利润错过 ； 1Q24 仍然疲软 ； 观望 三一重工 （ 三一重工 ） 2023 年的净利润为 45.3 亿元人民币 （ 同比增长 6% ），比我们和 普遍预期低 12% 。此外，由于收入缺乏增长 （ 同比增长 - 1% ），第 1 季度净利润仅同比增 目标价 14.80 元 长 5%，至 15.8 亿元人民币。鉴于海外需求疲软 （ 尤其是欧洲 ），我们仍然担心今年出口进 （ 先前 TP 为 12.30 元人民币 ） 一步放缓。我们维持 2024E 盈利预测，但考虑到中国市场的温和复苏，将 2025E 预期上调 涨 / 跌 （ 7.7% ） 8% 。尽管如此，我们的新估计仍低于共识 24% / 29% 。维护。HOLD新 TP 为 14.8 元人民 现价人民币 16.04 元中国资本货物 币 ， 基于 24 倍 2024E P / E 。 Wayne FUNG, CFA  4Q23 业绩低于预期。收入同比下降 17% ， 至 17.9 亿元人民币。毛利率同比收窄 1.9 (852 ...

29 Apr 2024 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update Alphabet (GOOG US) 1Q24 earnings beat on efficiency gain; GenAI development on track Alphabet announced 1Q24 results: total revenue grew by 15% YoY to US$80.5bn, in line with consensus estimate; GAAP net income was up 57% YoY to US$23.7bn, 21% ahead of consensus estimate, thanks to Alphabet's organization optimization which leads to greater velocity and efficiency. The company further raised its shareholder return, announcing a ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a BUY rating for GAC Group with a target price of HK$5.50, indicating a potential upside of 69.2% from the current price of HK$3.25 [5][10]. Core Insights - GAC Group's 1Q24 earnings were largely in line with prior estimates, with a net profit of RMB1.2 billion, which was about RMB166 million lower than previous forecasts. The company maintains its FY24E net profit forecast at RMB5.4 billion [2][11]. - The report expresses a conservative outlook on Aion's sales volume and profitability, suggesting that quality growth through brand upscale and overseas expansion is crucial for long-term development [2][3]. - Trumpchi's PHEV sales growth is highlighted as a potential area of investor interest, with management expecting substantial year-on-year net profit growth in FY24E despite a competitive pricing environment [2][3]. Financial Performance Summary - GAC Group's 1Q24 revenue was RMB21.6 billion, reflecting an 18.8% year-on-year decline, while gross profit was RMB1.1 billion, showing an 85.5% increase year-on-year [7][11]. - The company reported a gross margin of 5.2% in 1Q24, which is an improvement of 2.9 percentage points year-on-year [7]. - For FY24E, revenue is projected at RMB139.57 billion, with a gross profit of RMB7.21 billion and a net profit of RMB5.41 billion, indicating a 22.1% growth in net profit year-on-year [8][9]. Valuation and Estimates - The report employs a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation, estimating Aion's value at HK$3.3 per share and valuing joint ventures and associates at HK$2.2 per share [10]. - The FY24E equity income forecast is maintained at RMB8.3 billion, with expectations for flat performance in FY24E without restructuring burdens [2][3]. - The report includes FY26E estimates, projecting revenue growth to RMB152.64 billion, with a gross profit margin of 8.4% [8][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a HOLD rating for SANY Heavy with a new target price of RMB14.80, revised from RMB12.30, based on a 24x 2024E P/E ratio [2][3]. Core Insights - SANY Heavy's net profit for 2023 was RMB4.53 billion, a 6% year-over-year increase, but 12% below estimates. The 1Q24 net profit grew only 5% year-over-year to RMB1.58 billion, attributed to a revenue decline of 1% year-over-year [2][3]. - Concerns persist regarding a potential slowdown in exports, particularly in Europe, impacting overall performance [2][3]. - The report anticipates a moderate recovery in the Chinese market, leading to an 8% increase in 2025E earnings estimates, although these remain 24% to 29% below consensus [2][3]. Financial Performance Summary - **2023 Results**: Revenue decreased by 17% year-over-year to RMB17.9 billion, with a gross margin contraction of 1.9 percentage points to 25.6%. Net profit fell by 29% year-over-year to RMB480 million [2][3]. - **1Q24 Results**: Revenue dropped 1% year-over-year, but gross margin improved by 0.5 percentage points to 28.4%. Operating cash flow significantly improved to RMB4.38 billion compared to -RMB1.6 billion in 1Q23 [2][3]. - **Overseas Revenue**: In 2H23, overseas revenue (62% of total) grew 4% year-over-year to RMB20.8 billion, with Europe showing a 15% increase to RMB8.1 billion [2][3][7]. Valuation and Market Outlook - The target price of RMB14.80 reflects a valuation that is 0.5 standard deviations above the average P/E of 20x since 2017, indicating initial signs of stabilization in excavator sales in China [2][3]. - Upside risks include stabilization in property investment in China, while downside risks involve further declines in overseas demand [2][3].

M N 29 Apr 2024 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update Tigermed (300347 CH) Meaningful demand recovery in 1Q24 Target Price RMB66.82 Tigermed reported 1Q24 revenue of RMB1,660mn, down 8.0% YoY, and (Previous TP RMB68.57) attributable recurring net income of RMB303mn, down 20.5% YoY, which was Up/Downside 15.8% mainly due to the substantially reduced gains on fair value changes and Current Price RMB57.70 investment changes (RMB8mn in 1Q24 vs RMB198mn in 1Q23). 1Q24 revenue / attr ...

M N 2024 年 4 月 29 日 招银国际环球市场 | 睿智投资 | 公司更新 固生堂 (2273 HK) 1Q24 保持业务快速增长势头 目标价 71.96港元 固生堂更新了 1Q24 经营数据， 1Q24 就诊人次约为 107 万，同比增长约 (此前目标价 71.96港元) 42.1%，其中在23年4月1日至24年3月31日期间新成立的门店1Q24就诊 潜在升幅 58.2% 人次约为 7.4 万，贡献总就诊人次增长率中的 9.8%。管理层表示老店就诊人次 当前股价 45.50港元 增长达 32.2%。门诊人次的强劲增长部分得益于 23 年 1-2 月疫情导致的低基 中国医药 数，然而23年3月出现积压需求的集中爆发，造成一定的高基数，但24年3月 武 煜, CFA 门诊人次的增长仍超过 30%。同时，管理层表示 1Q24 客单价同比增长超过 (852) 3900 0842 2%。基于公司良好的现金流表现，管理层计划在未来 3-5 年将每年的分红、回 jillwu@cmbi.com.hk 购的比例提高至净利润的30-50%，以更好的回馈股东。 黄本晨, CFA  线下门店扩张提速。23 年固生堂共收 ...

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Meta reported 1Q24 results: total revenue grew by 27% YoY to US$36.5bn, in line with consensus estimate of US$36.2bn; net income was up 117% YoY to US$12.4bn, also in line with consensus estimate (US$12.2bn). For 2Q24, management guides total revenue to increase by 14-22% YoY to US$36.5- 39.0bn (vs. consensus estimate of US$38.3bn), with growth rate normalizing as the base effect wanes. Looking ahead, Meta expects to start a multi-year investment cycle to build full-scale AI capabilities and enhance monetiz ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a BUY rating for Vesync with a target price of HK$ 6.79, based on a P/E of 11x for FY24E, reflecting a potential upside of 57% from the current price of HK$ 4.33 [2][5][15]. Core Insights - Despite slow sales growth in 1Q24, the end-demand remains healthy, supported by a strong sell-out growth and low inventory levels in the Amazon channel. The company expects orders growth to normalize in the upcoming quarters [2][8]. - The management has reiterated its FY24E guidance of over 20% sales growth and over 10% net profit margin, which aligns with the analyst's conservative positive outlook [2][8]. - The report highlights that Vesync's gross sales growth was only 1% in 1Q24, attributed to supply issues and reduced orders from Amazon, while non-Amazon channels saw a significant growth of 38% [2][8]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from US$ 585 million in FY23 to US$ 675 million in FY24, representing a year-over-year growth of 15.3% [3][14]. - Net profit is expected to increase from US$ 77.4 million in FY23 to US$ 91.4 million in FY24, with a net profit margin improvement from 13.2% to 13.5% [3][14]. - The gross profit margin is anticipated to stabilize at 46.0% in FY24, slightly down from 46.9% in FY23, while the operating profit margin is expected to be around 15.3% [3][14]. Growth Outlook - The report projects a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13% for sales and 16% for net profit from FY23 to FY26E, indicating robust growth potential [2][8]. - Specific brands under Vesync, such as Levoit and Cosori, are expected to achieve sales growth of 15% in FY24E, driven by new product launches and category expansions [8][10]. Valuation Metrics - The current valuation of Vesync at 7x FY24E P/E is considered attractive compared to its historical average of 12x, suggesting a favorable investment opportunity [2][5][15]. - The report notes that the average inventory days for major retailers have decreased, indicating improved channel inventory health, which bodes well for future sales [8][10].

M N 26 Apr 2024 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update Luxshare (002475 CH) FY23 in-line with better-than-feared 1H24 earnings guidance; Solid outlook ahead Target Price RMB46.61 Luxshare posted FY23 revenue/NP growth of 8%/20% YoY, largely in-line with (Previous TP RMB46.96) pre-announcement of 20-25% YoY, while 1H24E earnings guidance of 20-25% Up/Downside 63.3% YoY (implying 2Q24E 18%-27% YoY) is above market expectations. We believe Current Price RMB28.54 the strong 1H24 out ...