美国经济 通胀超预期放缓显示消费已经转弱 年 4 月 14 日 招银国际环球市场 | 宏观研究 | 宏观视角 (852) 3761 8957 frankliu@cmbi.com.hk 叶丙南, Ph.D (852) 3761 8967 yebingnan@cmbi.com.hk 资料来源：Wind，招银国际环球市场 资料来源：Wind，招银国际环球市场 0 2 4 6 8 10 CPI 核心CPI CPI预测 核心CPI预测 同比(%) (5) 0 5 10 15 20 非耐用品 耐用品 服务扣除房租 房租 (%) 敬请参阅尾页之免责声明 请到彭博 (搜索代码: RESP CMBR )或 http:// www.cmbi.com.hk 下载更多招银国际环球市场研究报 告 1 MN CPI 增速低于预期，能源价格大幅下跌。3 月 CPI 季调后环比增速从 2 月 的 0.22%降至-0.05%，低于市场预期的 0.11%，为 2020 年 5 月以来首次 环比下降；CPI 同比增速从 2.8%降至 2.4%。食品价格环比增速从 0.2%反 弹至 3 月的 0.4%，主要是家庭食品价格从 0%升至 0.5%。能源 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a BUY rating for Anta Sports, with a target price trimmed to HK$ 119.08, based on a 24x FY25E P/E ratio [1][3]. Core Insights - The acquisition of Jack Wolfskin is viewed positively, with the acquisition price considered attractive and significant potential for expansion in the mid-priced outdoor industry and European markets [1][11]. - Despite a slight decline in retail sales growth in March-April 2025, the outlook for Q2 2025 remains cautiously optimistic due to various growth drivers [11][12]. - The company's retail sales growth in Q1 2025 was satisfactory, with improvements in inventory management and a better-than-expected profit margin [10][11]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for FY25E are set at RMB 78,235 million, with a year-on-year growth of 10.5% [2][12]. - Net profit for FY25E is estimated at RMB 14,961.4 million, reflecting a decrease of 12.7% year-on-year [2][12]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for FY25E is projected at RMB 4.66, down from RMB 5.34 in FY24A [2][12]. Market Performance - The current market capitalization of Anta Sports is approximately HK$ 226.67 billion, with a current stock price of HK$ 83.85, indicating a potential upside of 42% to the target price [3][4]. - The stock is trading at a P/E ratio of 17x for FY25E, which is considered attractive compared to its 5-year average of 25x [1][12]. Acquisition Details - Anta Sports announced the acquisition of Jack Wolfskin for USD 290 million (approximately RMB 23.5 billion), with expected sales of EUR 325 million and adjusted EBITDA of EUR 12 million for FY25E [11][18]. - The valuation metrics for the acquisition indicate a P/S ratio of approximately 0.8x, which is lower than both Anta's group average and the global sports industry average [11][18].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for BOE Varitronix, indicating a potential return of over 15% over the next 12 months [10][20]. Core Insights - The management believes that the recent US reciprocal tariffs will have a limited impact on financials due to low US sales exposure, which is only 2.6% in FY23 [9][10]. - BOE Varitronix is optimistic about the ramp-up of capacity in Vietnam by 2025 and has already secured orders from US and South Korean customers [9]. - The company plans to focus on overseas market expansion and adjust its product mix to mitigate tariff risks in the long term [9][10]. - A share repurchase plan announced on April 11 demonstrates management's confidence in the business outlook [9]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from HK$10,760 million in FY23A to HK$22,228 million in FY27E, reflecting a CAGR of approximately 14.6% [2][17]. - Net profit is expected to recover from HK$391.3 million in FY24A to HK$738.7 million in FY27E, with a notable growth of 29.4% in FY25E [2][17]. - The company’s P/E ratio is forecasted to decrease from 10.1x in FY24A to 5.4x in FY27E, indicating an attractive valuation [2][10]. Target Price and Upside Potential - The target price for BOE Varitronix is set at HK$9.63, representing an upside potential of 91.8% from the current price of HK$5.02 [3][10]. Share Performance and Market Data - The market capitalization of BOE Varitronix is approximately HK$3,975.8 million, with an average turnover of HK$35.3 million over the last three months [4]. - The stock has experienced a decline of 30.9% over the past month and 17.4% over the past three months [6].

2025 年 4 月 11 日 招银国际环球市场 | 市场策略 | 招财日报 每日投资策略 宏观及公司点评 全球市场观察 招银国际研究部 邮件：research@cmbi.com.hk | 环球主要股市上日表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 收市价 | | 升跌（%） | | | | 单日 | 年内 | | 恒生指数 | 20,682 | 2.06 | 21.32 | | 恒生国企 | 7,668 | 1.76 | 32.94 | | 恒生科技 | 4,814 | 2.66 | 27.88 | | 上证综指 | 3,224 | 1.16 | 8.36 | | 深证综指 | 1,868 | 2.46 | 1.66 | | 深圳创业板 | 1,901 | 2.27 | 0.48 | | 美国道琼斯 | 39,594 | -2.50 | 5.05 | | 美国标普 500 | 5,268 | -3.46 | 10.45 | | 美国纳斯达克 | 16,387 | -4.31 | 9.17 | | 德国 DAX | 20,563 | 4.53 | 22.75 | | 法国 ...

Saiyi HE, CFA (852) 3916 1739 hesaiyi@cmbi.com.hk China Internet 11 Apr 2025 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update JD.com (JD US) Expecting solid revenue and earnings growth For 1Q25E, we anticipate that JD.com (JD) has inked total revenue of RMB291.9bn, up 12.2% YoY, driven by the nationwide implementation of the subsidy program, and this could be 1% better than Bloomberg consensus. We are also looking for 21% YoY growth in non-GAAP net profit for JD, also 1% better than conse ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price raised to 512 RMB, based on a 36x FY25 forecasted P/E ratio, aligning with the industry average [1][2]. Core Insights - The company is expected to benefit from the accelerated localization trend in the semiconductor industry, with a projected revenue growth of 35.1% year-on-year to 29.8 billion RMB in 2024, driven by breakthroughs in multiple new products in the integrated circuit equipment sector [1][2]. - The net profit for 2024 is forecasted to grow by 44.2% year-on-year to 5.6 billion RMB, with an improved net profit margin of 18.8% [1]. - For Q1 2025, the company anticipates a revenue increase of 39.3% year-on-year to 8.2 billion RMB, exceeding consensus expectations [1][2]. Financial Summary - Revenue for FY24 is projected at 30.9 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 39.7%, and for FY25, revenue is expected to reach 39.0 billion RMB, reflecting a 26.5% increase [3]. - The net profit for FY24 is estimated at 5.8 billion RMB, a 48.9% increase from the previous year, while FY25's net profit is projected at 7.5 billion RMB, growing by 30.0% [3]. - The company’s gross margin is expected to improve to 43.7% in FY24 and 44.3% in FY25, indicating enhanced operational efficiency [3][10]. Market Position and Trends - The company has seen a steady increase in market share due to continuous innovation and successful mass production of new products, including capacitive coupling plasma etching equipment and atomic layer deposition equipment [2]. - The report highlights that the consolidation within the Chinese semiconductor industry is expected to accelerate, benefiting leading companies like the one under review [2]. - The impact of U.S. tariffs on China is deemed minimal in the short term, as the company generates its revenue solely from the domestic market [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price raised to 512 RMB, based on a 36 times FY25 forecasted P/E ratio, aligning with the industry average [1][2]. Core Insights - The company is expected to benefit from the accelerated localization trend in the semiconductor industry, with a projected revenue growth of 35.1% year-on-year to 29.8 billion RMB in 2024, driven by breakthroughs in integrated circuit equipment and an increase in market share [1][2]. - The net profit for 2024 is forecasted to grow by 44.2% year-on-year to 5.6 billion RMB, with an improved net profit margin of 18.8% [1]. - For Q1 2025, the company anticipates a revenue increase of 39.3% year-on-year to 8.2 billion RMB, exceeding consensus expectations [1][2]. Financial Summary - Revenue for FY24 is projected at 30.9 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 39.7%, and net profit expected to reach 5.8 billion RMB, reflecting a 48.9% increase [3]. - The company’s gross margin is expected to be 43.7% in FY24, improving to 44.3% in FY25 [3]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 10.93 RMB for FY25, with a P/E ratio of 39.4 times [3]. Market Position and Trends - The company has seen a steady increase in market share due to continuous innovation in core product lines, including successful mass production of new products such as capacitive coupling plasma etching equipment and atomic layer deposition equipment [2]. - The report anticipates a 30.8% revenue growth for 2025, driven by ongoing market share gains and new product launches [2]. - The integration within the Chinese semiconductor industry is expected to accelerate, benefiting leading companies like the one under review [2].

2025 年 4 月 10 日 招银国际环球市场 | 市场策略 | 招财日报 每日投资策略 宏观点评 中国经济-贸易战 2.0 时期的政策 宏观及公司点评 全球市场观察 中美处于谈判之前 "胆小鬼游戏"阶段，情况可能会先恶化，然后再好转。中 美冲突可能会先升级，中国对美国关税做出强硬反应，包括反制关税、关键 原材料出口管制、削减对美投资、限制技术转让和人民币可控式贬值等，而 美国可能祭出定向金融制裁等威胁。 就经济影响而言，贸易战更像疫情而非金融危机，因为两者都是供给冲击。 贸易战对经济增长的负面影响应该小于疫情封锁，因为前者主要影响本国与 对手国之间的跨境贸易、投资和供应链活动，而后者则同时影响跨境和国内 经济活动。但贸易战影响的持续时间可能比疫情更长，因为战争会破坏互信， 并在国家之间播下仇恨种子。 为对冲贸易战影响，中国可能会降低存款准备金率和 LPR，并加大财政刺激 力度，以提振股市、房地产市场和消费需求。中国将继续推进科技自主自强， 以降低对脱钩断链风险的脆弱性。中国将加强与非美地区的经贸投资联系， 加快贸易地区多元化。尽管立场强硬，但中国将保持谈判之门敞开，一项全 面协议——或许包括扩大财政刺激、 ...

10 Apr 2025 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update Alibaba (BABA US) Positive profitability growth of core e- commerce business likely to sustain We expect Alibaba to deliver in-line-with-consensus revenue growth and adjusted EBITA for 4QFY25 (March year-end). For core domestic e-commerce business, driven by healthy GMV growth and an increase in monetization rate aided by incremental technology service fee charges and the increase in penetration of Quanzhantui, Alibaba could sus ...

2025 年 4 月 9 日 招银国际环球市场 | 睿智投资 | 行业研究 半导体 美国关税对中国半导体行业影响 美东时间 4 月 2 日，美国政府宣布了"对等关税"政策。4 月 4 日，中国发布 了对美的关税反制措施。虽然本次美国的"对等关税"不包括半导体（除半导 体设备），但我们认为后续美国有可能针对半导体行业出台额外的关税政策。 随着地缘风险加剧，我们认为中国半导体国产替代的趋势有望加速，半导体行 业将会受益，建议关注国产替代属性较强的公司：1）晶圆代工厂，如中芯国 际（981 HK）、华虹半导体（1347 HK），2）半导体设备制造，如北方华创 （002371 CH），3）芯片设计公司，尤其是涉及人工智能方向以及模拟半导 体领域的芯片企业，这些细分赛道龙头以美国公司为代表（英伟达、高通、德 州仪器等），下游国产替代意愿预期将加强，利好卓胜微（300782 CH）、贝 克微（2149 HK）等公司。同时，在全球经济、政策不确定性增加的背景下， 我们预期在未来的一两周内（如新关税将于 4 月 9 日生效），全球股市将面临 巨大波动。投资者可能会寻求安全港，而高股息防御策略将受到部分偏好保守 策略的投资人的 ...