Economic Indicators - The ISM Services PMI fell from 52 in August to 50 in September, indicating stagnation in service sector expansion, below the market expectation of 51.7[2] - The Services PMI corresponds to an annualized GDP growth rate of 0.4%[2] - The Manufacturing PMI increased slightly from 48.7 in August to 49.1 in September, above the market expectation of 49, indicating a slowdown in contraction[2] Employment and Inflation - The employment index in the services sector rose from 46.5 to 47.2, showing a slower contraction[2] - The price index for services increased from 69.2 to 69.4, reflecting persistent inflationary pressures[2] - The number of initial unemployment claims decreased at the end of September compared to the beginning of the month, suggesting stability in the job market[1] Government Shutdown Impact - The government shutdown in October is expected to lead to 700,000 federal employees being furloughed, with an estimated GDP impact of 0.1-0.2 percentage points for each week of shutdown[1] - The Federal Reserve's October meeting may reference September data, with a 96.2% market expectation for no rate cut in October due to improved employment data and high inflation[1] Future Projections - The Federal Reserve is likely to pause rate cuts in October but may consider a rate cut in December as economic slowdown continues[1]

Macro Commentary - The global stock markets showed no change in closing prices, with the Hang Seng Index at 27,141, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 35.30% [1] - The Southbound capital recorded a net purchase of HKD 436.322 billion in the third quarter, surpassing a cumulative net purchase of over HKD 1.1 trillion for the year, exceeding the total net purchases for 2023 and 2024 [3] - The U.S. service sector PMI fell to 50, indicating stagnation, with employment shrinking for four consecutive months, while the price index reached a three-year high [4] Sector Performance - The Hang Seng Financial Index closed at 45,079, with a year-to-date increase of 28.30%, while the Hang Seng Industrial Index rose by 41.40% [2] - The healthcare sector is highlighted as a potential area of interest, alongside AI hardware, internet, industrial, and raw materials sectors [3] Economic Outlook - The U.S. economy is showing signs of slowing down, with the manufacturing PMI indicating a slight contraction, while the inventory index is shrinking, suggesting companies are depleting their accumulated stock [4] - The expectation of a Federal Reserve rate cut in October is at 96.2%, with a potential pause in rate cuts due to improving employment data and persistent inflation [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. Core Viewpoints - The fair initial price talk (IPT) for the new VEDLN 32s is 9.5% [3][6]. - The new USD bonds issuance by VEDLN will notably lower its funding cost and relieve its near - term refinancing pressure [6][8]. - Maintain a buy rating on VEDLN 9.475 07/24/30 due to its better risk - adjusted profile and higher trading liquidity [9]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Trading Desk Comments - On recent new issues PINGIN 35/CKHH 30/MITSET 30, there were balanced two - way flows. MEITUA widened 1bp amid two - way flows [2]. - There was better buying on Chinese/Japanese/Middle Eastern financial FRNs because of cash - parking demand, and the rest of Asia IG space was unchanged to a touch tighter [2]. - Some PB sold HYSAN Perps amid the latest NWDEVL headlines, with HYSAN 4.85 and 7.2 Perps unchanged to 0.1pt lower, and NWDEVL complex 0.6pt lower to 0.3pt higher [2]. - There was demand on MTRC Perps from AMs due to firmer rates, with MTRC 5 5/8 and 4 7/8 Perps 0.1 - 0.2pt higher [2]. - LASUDE 5 07/28/26 was up by 0.9pt, and Lai Sun Development is close to signing HKD3.5bn secured five - year loan refinancing facility due Oct'25 [2]. - EHICAR 26 - 27s were unchanged to 0.4pt higher, and the two bonds have moved up 2.6 - 3.5pts since last week. EHICAR released moderately better 1H25 results with yoy improvement in profit margin, lower net debts and consistent rebound in utilization rate [2]. - In Chinese properties, VNKRLE 27 - 29s declined by 1.1pts, GRNLGR 29s were 0.9 - 1pt lower, and FUTLAN 28 was down by 0.2pt [2]. - There was better selling on Japanese insurance hybrids and Yankee AT1s in the morning from institutions, and moderately better buying from PBs during the London session [2]. - In Southeast Asia, there were some month - end rebalancing flows on Indian CBKIN/EXIMBK/HDFCB/SBIIN curve. VEDLN 28 - 33s were unchanged to 0.3pt lower [2]. - SMCGL Perps were unchanged to 0.2pt lower, and PCORPM 5.95 and 7.35 Perps were up by 0.1pt. There was little traction in the LGFV space [2]. Morning Update - The new DAESEC 4.375 10/14/28 was largely unchanged from RO at 99.6. AMs bought FRNs to park cash ahead of the Golden Week [3]. - CKINF 4.85 Perp was down 0.7pt. QDJZWD 6.95 03/31/28 and NUFAU 5 01/27/30 were 0.4 - 0.5pt higher [3]. - VEDLN 28 - 33s were largely unchanged this morning, and the IPT of 9.5% for the new VEDLN 32s is fair [3]. - Rakuten plans to issue USD PerpNC5 in mid - Oct'25 to refinance RAKUTN 5.125 Perp first callable in Apr'26. RAKUTNs were unchanged this morning [3]. Top Performers and Underperformers - Top Performers: LASUDE 5 07/28/26 up 0.9pt, JAPTOB 3.3 09/14/51 up 0.7pt, CBAAU 3.9 07/12/47 up 0.7pt, XIAOMI 4.1 07/14/51 up 0.6pt, BABA 5 5/8 11/26/54 up 0.6pt [4]. - Top Underperformers: VLLPM 9 3/8 07/29/29 down 1.3pt, VNKRLE 3.975 11/09/27 down 1.1pt, CCAMCL 4 3/4 12/04/37 down 1.0pt, GRNLGR 6 1/8 04/22/29 down 1.0pt, GRNLGR 6 3/4 09/26/29 down 0.9pt [4]. Macro News Recap - On Monday, S&P (+0.26%), Dow (+0.15%) and Nasdaq (+0.48%) were higher, and UST yield was lower. 2/5/10/30 yield was at 3.63%/3.74%/4.15%/4.71% [5]. Desk Analyst Comments on VEDLN - Vedanta Resources (VRL) proposes to issue 7NC2 144A/Reg S USD bonds (B2/ - /B+) to extend debt maturity and lower funding costs. Proceeds will prepay USD550mn due - Apr'26 private credit facility (PCF) in Oct'25, with excess for debt repayment and general corporate purposes [6]. - The new VEDLN 32s will be issued by Vedanta Resources Finance II Plc and guaranteed by VRL, Twin Star, Welter Trading, and a newly added Vedanta Holdings Mauritius II which holds 12.6% of Vedanta Limited (VEDL). The subsidiary - guarantor group's stake in VEDL increases to 53.6% from 40.99%, and the incurrence debt cap for subsidiary guarantors increases to USD5.2bn (excluding inter - company loans) from USD4.0bn. The new bonds will rank pari passu with existing USD bonds [7]. - Assuming new issue of USD500mn, draw down of USD250mn syndicate facility and prepayment of USD550mn PCF, VEDLN's near - term refinancing pressure will be largely relieved, with no major maturity in the remaining of FY26, cUSD300mn in FY27 and cUSD450mn in FY28. The increase in gross debts at its standalone level to USD4.8bn on a pro - forma basis from USD4.6bn in Sep'25 is manageable, considering LTM dividend income of USD1.3bn and brand fees of USD386mn in FY25 [8]. Offshore Asia New Issues Priced - International Finance Corp issued 20mn USD 10 - yr bonds with a 4.56% coupon at 4.56% priced, unrated [13]. - Mirae Asset Securities issued 300mn USD 3 - yr bonds with a 4.375% coupon at T + 88, rated Baa2/ - /BBB [13]. Pipeline - Rentenbank plans to issue 5 - yr USD bonds with pricing of SOFR MS+41, rated - /AAA/AAA [14]. - Vedanta Resources plans to issue 500mn USD 7NC2 bonds at 9.5%, rated B2/ - /B+ [14]. News and Market Color - There were 31 credit bonds issued yesterday onshore with an amount of RMB27bn. Month - to - date, 2,238 credit bonds were issued with a total amount of RMB1,998bn raised, representing a 30.5% yoy increase [15]. - China is setting up a dedicated department for government debt management and prioritizing deleveraging [15]. - GLP has identified sufficient sources to handle its cUSD2.5bn debt due over the next 12 months [15]. - Indonesia Asahan Aluminium (Inalum) delayed its IPO plan [15]. - JD.com supply chain arm plans to raise USD500mn from Hong Kong IPO [15]. - Medco Energi cancelled its share buyback program [15]. - Nissan Motor is in discussions to sell its 75% stake in Japanese soccer team for cost - cutting [15]. - POSCO International will invest KRW1.6tn (cUSD1.2bn) in new LNG power plants [15]. - Fitch revised the outlook of PTT Public Company and PTT Exploration and Production Public to negative from stable and affirmed BBB+ rating after Thailand's sovereign rating outlook revision [15]. - Italy cleared Sinochem of breaching government's golden power rules regarding Pirelli [22]. - TSMC denied reports of talks with Intel [22]. - Moody's affirmed Tata Motors' Ba1 corporate family rating and changed its outlook to negative from positive [22]. - Vedanta plans to deleverage by calling its outstanding bonds as early as Jun'26 [22].

Macro Commentary - Global stock markets showed positive performance, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 1.89% and year-to-date growth of 32.72% [1] - The Chinese stock market experienced an increase, driven by a recovery in investor risk appetite, particularly in materials, consumer discretionary, and financial sectors [3] - The U.S. stock market continued to rise, led by consumer discretionary, information technology, and financial sectors, despite concerns over high valuations expressed by the Federal Reserve Chairman [3] Market Performance - The Hang Seng Financial Index increased by 1.98% year-to-date, while the Hang Seng Industrial Index rose by 1.91% [2] - The A-share market saw significant gains in non-bank financials, metals, and electrical equipment, while coal and consumer services sectors declined [3] Economic Outlook - The fourth quarter strategy suggests a balanced approach, favoring stocks, commodities, and non-USD currencies while being bearish on bonds and the dollar [4] - The U.S. economy is experiencing slight stagflation, with expectations of a steepening yield curve due to potential Federal Reserve interventions [4] - The report indicates a weak recovery in the Chinese economy, with potential improvements in deflationary pressures [4] Investment Strategy - Recommendations include an overweight allocation in currencies (20%), with specific allocations to USD (10.5%), EUR (4%), and GBP (2.5%), while underweighting JPY [4] - For bonds, a standard allocation of 22.5% is suggested, with an overweight in UK bonds (2%) and emerging market bonds (5%) [4] - The stock allocation is recommended at 30%, with a focus on European (4.3%), UK (2.5%), and Chinese stocks (3.5%), while underweighting U.S. (17%) and Japanese stocks (1%) [4] Sector Analysis - Defensive sectors such as telecommunications and utilities underperformed, while cyclical sectors led the gains [3] - The report highlights the ongoing AI technology revolution, which is stimulating corporate capital expenditure despite weak job growth in developed countries [3]

Group 1: Macro Strategy Overview - The report suggests a balanced asset allocation strategy for the fourth quarter, favoring equities, commodities, and non-USD currencies while being bearish on bonds and the USD [1] - The US economy is experiencing slight stagflation, with expectations of a GDP growth decline from 2% in the first half to 1.3% in Q4 2023 [9] - The Eurozone economy is performing better than expected, with inflation stabilizing and government bond yields rising [1][13] Group 2: Currency Recommendations - The report recommends an overweight allocation to currency market products (20%), emphasizing their liquidity and safety [4][7] - Specific currency allocations include an overweight in USD (10.5%), Euro (4%), and GBP (2.5%), while recommending a neutral position in RMB (1.2%) and underweight in JPY (0%) [4][6][8] Group 3: Bond Market Insights - A neutral allocation to bonds (22.5%) is suggested, with a focus on US bonds (10%) and an overweight in UK (2%) and emerging market bonds (5%) [4][42] - The report highlights that bond valuations are more attractive than equities, despite potential inflation risks [42][43] Group 4: Equity Market Analysis - A neutral allocation to equities (30%) is recommended, with specific overweight positions in Eurozone (4.3%), UK (2.5%), and China (3.5%) stocks, while underweighting US (17%) and Japanese stocks (1%) [4][6][42] - The report notes that stock valuations are currently higher than fixed income products, indicating a need for caution [4][42] Group 5: Alternative Assets - The report suggests a lower allocation to alternative assets (27.5%) due to their high risk and low liquidity, recommending a diversified approach [4][6] - Specific alternative assets include private equity (9%), hedge funds (5%), and real estate (5.5%), with a cautious outlook on digital assets (1%) [4][6][42]

Market Overview - Global markets showed mixed performance, with the Hang Seng Index down 1.35% and the S&P 500 up 0.59% year-to-date performance for the Hang Seng Index stands at 30.25% [1][2] - The Chinese stock market saw declines, particularly in the technology, healthcare, and consumer discretionary sectors, while essential consumer goods, energy, and financials experienced gains [3] Industry Insights - The Chinese pharmaceutical industry is witnessing a recovery in domestic innovation research and development demand, with the MSCI China Healthcare Index up 74.0% since early 2025, outperforming the MSCI China Index by 37.3% [4] - The demand for early-stage research is showing positive signs, supported by a resurgence in capital market financing and a favorable environment for biotech innovation [9] - The CXO industry is expected to see performance recovery in the second half of 2025 due to increased demand for early-stage research and development [4][9] Company Analysis - WuXi AppTec (药明康德) is maintaining a strong growth trajectory in its TIDES business, with plans to expand peptide production capacity significantly by the end of 2025 [8] - The company reported a 14.5% year-on-year increase in new orders for preclinical services in the first half of 2025, with a notable 19.9% increase from U.S. clients [9] - WuXi AppTec's management is confident in maintaining resilient profitability, with adjusted gross and net profit margins reaching historical highs of 44.5% and 30.4% respectively in the first half of 2025 [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for WuXi AppTec (603259 CH) and slightly raises the target price to RMB 118.79, reflecting positive signals from the recovery in global early-stage research demand [8][3]. Core Insights - The TIDES business continues to show strong momentum with rapid capacity expansion and a rich pipeline of projects. The company plans to expand its peptide capacity to over 100,000 L by the end of 2025, significantly up from 41,000 L by the end of 2024 [8]. - Early-stage research is showing signs of recovery, which is expected to drive growth in early-stage business revenue, accounting for about one-third of the company's total revenue [8]. - The company's refined operations are helping maintain resilient profitability amid macro uncertainties and global capacity expansion [8]. Financial Summary - For FY23A, the sales revenue is reported at RMB 40,341 million, with a year-on-year growth of 2.5%. The adjusted net profit is RMB 10,854 million, reflecting a 15.5% increase [2]. - The forecast for FY25E sales revenue is RMB 43,981 million, with a projected growth of 12.1%, and adjusted net profit is expected to reach RMB 12,296 million, a 16.2% increase [2][9]. - The adjusted earnings per share for FY25E is projected at RMB 4.17, with a corresponding adjusted P/E ratio of 24.7 [2][9]. Market Performance - The current market capitalization of WuXi AppTec is approximately RMB 296,944.9 million, with a 52-week price range of RMB 112.00 to RMB 47.60 [3][4]. - The stock has shown strong performance with a 56.7% absolute return over the past three months [5]. Shareholder Structure - Major shareholders include Li Ge and his concerted parties holding 24.0% and Hong Kong investors holding 20.1% [4].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to several companies in the pharmaceutical sector, indicating a potential upside of over 15% in the next 12 months [2][30]. Core Insights - The MSCI China Healthcare Index has increased by 74.0% since the beginning of 2025, outperforming the MSCI China Index, which rose by 37.3% [1]. - There is a recovery in domestic demand for innovative drug research and development, driven by a resurgence in capital market financing and an increase in the scale of innovative drug transactions abroad [1]. - The price for experimental monkeys, essential for innovative drug research, has risen from approximately 85,000 yuan in mid-2024 to about 90,000 yuan [1]. - The CXO industry is expected to see performance recovery in the second half of 2025 due to the impact of U.S. interest rate cuts [1]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report anticipates that U.S.-China innovation cooperation will continue, despite differing opinions in the U.S. [4]. - The global pharmaceutical innovation pipeline is shifting from Western biotech firms to Chinese biotech companies [4]. - Major multinational pharmaceutical companies are investing significantly in U.S. facilities, which may mitigate the impact of proposed tariffs on innovative drugs [4]. Company Recommendations - The report recommends buying shares in the following companies: - 三生制药 (Sangfor) [2] - 巨子生物 (Giant Biotech) [2] - 药明合联 (WuXi AppTec) [2] - 固生堂 (Gushengtang) [2] - 中国生物制药 (China National Pharmaceutical) [2] - 信达生物 (Innovent Biologics) [2] Market Trends - The report highlights that the continuous rise in innovative drugs will primarily come from overseas partners pushing clinical pipelines that have been licensed [4]. - There is optimism regarding the valuation recovery opportunities in consumer healthcare [4].

Market Overview - The global stock markets showed mixed performance, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 0.53% and the Hang Seng Technology Index increasing by 1.94%, reflecting a year-to-date gain of 42.77% [1][3] - The US stock markets experienced a decline, with the Dow Jones falling by 0.94% and the S&P 500 decreasing by 1.33%, while the Nasdaq dropped by 1.77% [1][3] Sector Performance - In the Hong Kong market, materials, information technology, and healthcare sectors led the gains, while consumer staples, real estate, and financial sectors lagged [3] - The A-share market saw gains in media, communication, and non-ferrous metals, while textiles, agriculture, and comprehensive sectors underperformed [3] Company Insights - Xiaomi Group launched its flagship Xiaomi 17 smartphone, priced at 4,499 RMB, which is competitive compared to the iPhone 17 priced at 5,999 RMB, highlighting Xiaomi's strategy to position itself against Apple [4] - The company aims to enhance its ecosystem with new IoT products and electric vehicle services, indicating a focus on high-end market segments [4] - Xiaomi's target price is set at 62.96 HKD, reflecting a 26.3 times expected P/E ratio for 2026, maintaining a "Buy" rating [5] Investment Recommendations - Geely Automobile is rated "Buy" with a target price of 25.00 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 37% [5] - Luckin Coffee is also rated "Buy" with a target price of 44.95 USD, suggesting a 19% upside [5] - Tencent and Alibaba are both rated "Buy," with target prices of 705.00 HKD and 158.80 USD respectively, indicating potential upsides of 9% and N/A [5]

Core Insights - The report highlights a rebound in the Chinese stock market, with Hong Kong's consumer discretionary, information technology, and industrial sectors leading gains, while healthcare, finance, and materials sectors declined [3] - Alibaba announced an additional investment of 380 billion yuan in AI infrastructure and formed a physical AI collaboration with Nvidia, resulting in a significant increase in its stock price [3] - The report anticipates a slight appreciation of the RMB against the USD, projecting an exchange rate of around 7.1 in the fourth quarter [3] Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index closed at 26,519, down 0.10% for the day but up 32.20% year-to-date [1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index showed a positive performance, closing at 6,323, up 0.46% for the day and 41.52% year-to-date [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.88% to close at 3,854, with a year-to-date gain of 14.97% [1] Sector Analysis - The report notes that the Hang Seng Financial Index fell by 1.11% while the Hang Seng Industrial Index rose by 0.55% [2] - The Hang Seng Property Index decreased by 2.42%, indicating challenges in the real estate sector [2] - The report emphasizes the ongoing development of AI and digital consumption in China, with multiple ministries promoting advancements in AI-enabled devices and services [3] Company Focus - Alibaba's cloud division aims to position itself as a full-stack AI service provider, with plans for global infrastructure expansion, including new cloud computing nodes in Brazil, France, and the Netherlands [4] - The company is pursuing an open-source model for its AI initiatives, aiming to create a value-generating ecosystem that surpasses closed-source models [4] - The report suggests a positive outlook for Alibaba Cloud's revenue growth, driven by increasing industry demand for AI infrastructure [4] Investment Recommendations - The report lists several companies with investment ratings, including Geely Automobile (target price 25.00, upside 37%) and Luckin Coffee (target price 44.95, upside 19%) [5] - The report indicates a strong potential for companies in the semiconductor sector, such as Horizon Robotics and North Huachuang, with respective target prices and upside potentials [5] - The report encourages ongoing attention to the long-term investment value in the Chinese internet and software sectors [4]