Group 1: Market Overview - The MSCI China Healthcare Index has decreased by 17.2% year-to-date, underperforming the MSCI China Index by 26.5%[26] - Since April 19, the MSCI China Healthcare Index has rebounded by 15%, with the dynamic P/E ratio rising from 23.0x to 26.8x, still below the 12-year historical average[26] Group 2: Policy Support and Industry Recovery - Upcoming policies for medical equipment upgrades are expected to significantly stimulate demand, with a projected investment increase of over 25% by 2027 compared to 2023 levels[26] - The National Development and Reform Commission has initiated discussions on large-scale equipment updates, indicating a recovery in hospital procurement demand[26] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends buying shares in leading companies such as Mindray Medical, BeiGene, and United Imaging, anticipating significant benefits from policy implementations[26] - The expected support for innovative drugs and devices is likely to enhance the growth prospects for the pharmaceutical sector, with a focus on companies that can leverage international market opportunities[26] Group 4: Financial Metrics - Mindray Medical (300760 CH) has a market capitalization of $51,032.7 million with a target price indicating a 26% upside potential[2] - BeiGene (BGNE US) shows a potential upside of 67%, despite its current P/E ratio being not meaningful (nm) due to losses[2]

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要关注公众号：水木纪要 2024年5月8日 招银国际环球市场」市场策略丨策略报告 策略观点 中国政策再度宽松 ■宏观：中国经济活动再次回落，推动政策再度宽松；房地产政策更加聚焦于提 振需求和去库存，包括进一步放松住房限购、降低按揭贷款首付比例与利率和 鼓励地方政府收购滞销商品房转为保障房；政府将通过适度补贴，推动新一轮 企业设备和家庭汽车家电以旧换新，以提振内需；随着大宗商品价格反弹和服 务价格缓慢回升，通缩程度或有所缓解。美国经济仍具韧性，通胀持续超预期, 市场对美联储降息幅度预期已大幅下降，美元利率和汇率大幅反弹推动金融条 件收紧，下半年经济和通胀或重回放缓趋势，美联储可能在9月降息，年内降 息幅度约50个基点。 ■科技：乐观，继续看好 AI算力/端侧成长、手机/PC 需求复苏以及产业链业绩 持续改善，A/H科技板块1Q业绩复苏加速，产业景气度触底回升；海外科技 龙头1Q业绩向好，全球云厂商资本支出大幅增加，推动AI服务器产业链强劲 增长；苹果/高通2Q指引好于预期，看好手机/PC等业务受益于AI端侧创新； 小米 SU7 上市和特斯拉推动 FSD 入华有望加速高阶智能驾驶落 ...

Investment Rating - Maintain BUY rating for BeiGene, reflecting strong growth potential and robust pipeline [2][4][16] Core Insights - BeiGene's product sales in 1Q24 reached US$747 million, showing an 18% quarter-over-quarter increase and an 82% year-over-year increase, representing 25.7% of the previous FY24 estimate [2] - Zanubrutinib (zanu) sales were particularly strong, increasing 18% QoQ and 131% YoY to US$489 million, driven by market share gains in CLL in the US and expanded reimbursement in the EU [2] - The company is on track to achieve profitability, with expectations to break even by FY26E, supported by improving operating margins and narrowing net losses [2][3] Summary by Sections Product Sales Performance - Total product sales for BeiGene in 1Q24 were US$747 million, up 18% QoQ and 82% YoY [2] - Zanubrutinib captured approximately 21% of the global BTK inhibitor market in 1Q24, up from 18% in 4Q23 [2] Patent Dispute - A patent dispute with Pharmacyclics is nearing resolution, with the USPTO expected to issue a final decision on the validity of the contested patent within 12 months [2] Financial Performance - Gross profit margin improved to 83.3% in 1Q24 from 82.7% in FY23, driven by high-margin product sales [2] - Net loss narrowed to US$251 million in 1Q24 from US$368 million in 4Q23, better than expectations [2][3] Future Growth Potential - Upcoming clinical trials for sonrotoclax and BGB-16673 are expected to yield significant data, with potential blockbuster status anticipated [2] - Forecast for zanubrutinib sales in FY24 is US$2.2 billion, representing a 69% YoY increase [2] Target Price Adjustment - The DCF-based target price for BeiGene has been raised from US$268.20 to US$269.73, indicating a potential upside of 59.9% from the current price of US$168.64 [4][12]

敬请参阅尾页之免责声明 请到彭博 (搜索代码: RESP CMBR )或 http://www.cmbi.com.hk 下载更多研究报告 中国政策再度宽松 敬请参阅尾页之免责声明 2 敬请参阅尾页之免责声明 3 敬请参阅尾页之免责声明 4 图 1: 行业荐股 2024 年 5 月 8 日 中国经济 房地产销售延续下滑，未来跌幅或逐步收窄。30 大中城市商品房成交套数今年一季度同比 下跌 42.2%，4 月同比降幅仍达到 38.6%，相比 2019 年同期复苏率则从去年的 64.9%降至 今年一季度的 49.5%和 4 月的 43.4%。二手房销量率先改善，11 个代表性城市（包括北京、 深圳、杭州、南京、成都、青岛、苏州、厦门、无锡、东莞和佛山）二手房销量同比降幅 从今年一季度的 23.3%收窄至 4 月的 9.6%，相比 2019 年同期复苏率从 2022 年的 74.1% 升至去年的 96.3%和今年一季度的 105.1%，4 月又降至 86.4%。以往房地产周期中各指标 改善顺序是：二手房销量->新房销量->开发商现金流->开发投资、土地市场。二手房销量 作为先行指标率先改善，预示新房销量降幅可能逐步收 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for Xiaomi with a new target price (TP) of HK$23.77, reflecting a 24.5% upside from the current price of HK$19.10 [3][20]. Core Insights - Xiaomi is expected to report strong earnings for 1Q24, with estimated revenue and adjusted net profit growth of 26% and 67% year-over-year, respectively, driven by robust smartphone shipments and improved gross profit margins across all segments [1][15]. - The company is anticipated to continue gaining global smartphone market share, particularly in Latin America, EMEA, SEA, and EU markets, supported by multiple product launches in the second half of 2024 [1][18]. - The report highlights a positive outlook for Xiaomi's smart electric vehicle (EV) business and resilient performance in core segments, leading to an upward revision of FY24-26E earnings per share (EPS) by 11-21% [1][15]. Summary by Sections Earnings Summary - FY24E revenue is projected at RMB 335.7 billion, with a year-over-year growth of 23.9%. Adjusted net profit is expected to reach RMB 20.03 billion, reflecting a 3.9% increase in adjusted EPS to RMB 0.80 [2][16]. - The report indicates a gross margin of 20.5% for FY24E, with operating and adjusted net margins of 6.4% and 6.0%, respectively [2][17]. Smartphone Segment - Xiaomi's global smartphone shipments are estimated to increase by 14% year-over-year to 167 million units in FY24E, with a market share of 14% in 1Q24, up from 11% in 1Q23 [1][10]. - The average selling price (ASP) is expected to remain flat in 1Q24, with a gross profit margin projected to decline to 14.5% due to rising component costs [1][13]. AIoT and Internet Services - Revenue from AIoT and Internet services is expected to grow by 19% and 7% year-over-year in 1Q24, respectively, driven by strong sales in pads and home appliances [1][15]. - The gross profit margin for AIoT is projected to improve to 18.5%, while the Internet services margin is expected to remain stable at 75.0% [1][15]. Valuation - The new SOTP-based target price of HK$23.77 is derived from applying a 15x P/E multiple to the smartphone, AIoT, and Internet businesses, and a 0.75x P/S multiple for the EV business [18][19]. - The report emphasizes upcoming catalysts, including the ramp-up of EV product shipments and further smartphone market share gains [18][19].

M N 8 May 2024 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update Walt Disney Co (DIS US) Looking beyond 3Q OI volatility Target Price US$142.00 Disney delivered solid 2QFY24 results, with inline revenue (+1.2% YoY) (Previous TP US$142.00) and upbeat profit (+30% YoY, beating consensus by 8%). The upbeat Up/Downside 34.7% margin was mainly attributable to DTC’s breakeven (ahead of guidance). Current Price US$105.39 Mgmt also raised its FY24E EPS growth target to 25% YoY (vs. prior at least ...

M N 2024 年 4 月 29日 招银国际环球市场 | 睿智投资 | 公司更新 联影医疗 (688271 CH) 高端市场持续拓展，国际化战略快速推进 目标价 160.39人民币 2023年公司实现营收114.1亿元，同比增长23.5%；归母净利润19.7亿元，同比增 (此前目标价 161.42人民币) 长19.2%，毛利率略微提升至48.5%（+0.1ppts），我们认为主要得益于中高端产品 潜在升幅 24.2% 和服务收入占比的提高，以及生产、物流等环节运营效率的提升。归母净利率下降 当前股价 129.10人民币 0.6 个百分点，主要是由于公司积极拓展海外业务并持续加大研发投入，销售费用率 中国医药 和研发费用率有所上升。1Q24，公司保持稳健增长，实现营业收入 23.5亿元，同比 武 煜, CFA 增长6.2%；归母净利润3.6亿元，同比增长10.2%。 (852) 3900 0842  设备销售稳步增长，中高端产品表现亮眼。2023 年公司设备销售收入 99.3 亿 jillwu@cmbi.com.hk 元，同比增长 21.1%，各产线收入和销量均实现增长。1）CT：2023 年产线收 王云逸 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 11.90, implying a potential upside of 25.9% from the current price of HKD 9.45 [2][6]. Core Insights - The first quarter performance of the company was below expectations, primarily due to a slight increase in the combined ratio (CoR) to 97.9% from 97.8% in FY23. The growth in automobile and non-automobile premiums slowed down to +1.9% and +5.0% year-on-year, respectively [1][7]. - Despite the weak performance in Q1, the report expresses confidence in the company's underwriting resilience, citing that catastrophe-related claims have been fully released in Q1 and expecting a recovery in monthly premium growth as seasonal effects dissipate [1][6]. - The report adjusts FY24-26E EPS forecasts down by 2%-6% due to ongoing impacts from asset allocation and market volatility, projecting EPS of RMB 1.32, 1.43, and 1.55 for FY24, FY25, and FY26, respectively [1][6]. Financial Performance Summary - The company's net profit for Q1 was RMB 5.87 billion, down 38.3% year-on-year, with underwriting profit declining by 49.1% to RMB 2.35 billion [1][7]. - Insurance service income increased by 5.9% year-on-year to RMB 113.84 billion, while insurance service expenses rose by 9.0% to RMB 105.59 billion [7][8]. - The investment income, including contributions from associates, decreased by 35.7% to RMB 2.15 billion, with a fair value loss of RMB 0.16 billion reported [7][8]. Premium Income and Combined Ratio - The total premium income for Q1 was RMB 173.98 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.8% [8]. - The combined ratio for the automobile segment is projected to be 96.7% for FY24, while the non-automobile segment is expected to have a CoR of 98.9% [1][6]. Valuation Metrics - The stock is currently trading at 0.8 times FY24E price-to-book (P/B) ratio, with a dividend yield of 6.0% for FY24E [1][6]. - The report highlights the company's defensive performance, offering over 40% in dividends, and maintains optimism regarding its market leadership in property and casualty insurance [1][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for PICC P&C with a target price of HK$11.90, implying a 25.9% upside from the current price of HK$9.45 [3][18]. Core Insights - The first quarter of 2024 saw weaker-than-expected results, with the combined ratio (CoR) slightly increasing to 97.9% compared to 97.8% in FY23. Auto and non-auto premium growth dropped to +1.9% and +5.0% YoY, respectively [2]. - Underwriting profit decreased by 49.1% YoY to RMB2.4 billion, impacting net profit which fell by 38.3% YoY to RMB5.9 billion. The net investment yield was reported at 0.8%, lower than some life insurance peers [2][8]. - Despite the weak performance in Q1, the report expresses confidence in the insurer's underwriting resilience due to the full release of catastrophe-induced claims and a recovery in monthly premium growth as seasonal effects fade [2][8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 1Q24, insurance service revenue increased by 5.9% YoY to RMB113.8 billion, while insurance service expenses rose by 9.0% YoY to RMB105.6 billion. The underwriting result was RMB5.2 billion, down 29.0% YoY [8]. - The net investment result dropped by 53.8% YoY to RMB2.3 billion, with a fair value loss of RMB164 million compared to a gain of RMB1.2 billion in 1Q23 [8][15]. Premium Growth - Auto premium growth was reported at +1.9% YoY, significantly lower than the previous year's +6.5%. Non-auto premium growth was +5.0% YoY, down from +12.8% YoY in 1Q23 [2][9]. - Agriculture insurance premiums increased by 14.7% YoY in March, indicating potential recovery in non-auto segments [2]. Valuation Metrics - The stock is currently trading at 0.8x FY24E P/BV, with a projected dividend yield of 6.0% for FY24E [2][15]. - The report revises down FY24-26E EPS by 2%-6% due to investment volatilities, with expected EPS of RMB1.32, RMB1.43, and RMB1.55 for FY24, FY25, and FY26, respectively [2][15].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for EVA Holdings, indicating a potential return exceeding 15% over the next 12 months [1][28]. Core Insights - EVA Holdings is transitioning from a secondary parts supplier to a primary participant, which is expected to drive growth in the coming years. The company's automation business is projected to maintain stable gross margins due to growth in Weihai and recovery in Vietnam [1][32]. - The automotive parts revenue is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15% from FY24 to FY25, with management targeting HKD 2.2 billion in automotive parts revenue for FY24 [1][32]. - The report highlights the importance of partnerships with primary suppliers in the new hot forming business, which could enhance EVA's profitability and revenue per vehicle [1][32]. Financial Summary - Revenue for FY24E is projected at HKD 6.571 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 6.3%. Net profit is expected to reach HKD 285 million, reflecting a 20.3% increase [20][34]. - The gross profit margin (GPM) for automotive parts is anticipated to be 21.8% in FY24E, supported by increased capacity and reduced capital expenditures [32][34]. - EVA's net profit for the first half of FY24 is expected to grow by 15% year-on-year, reaching HKD 141 million, with an overall net profit forecast of HKD 285 million for FY24 [1][32]. Valuation - The target price for EVA Holdings is set at HKD 1.50, based on a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation. The automotive parts business is valued at HKD 0.50 per share, while the office automation business is valued at HKD 1.00 per share [32][34]. - The report notes that the valuation reflects a revised FY24E price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 13 times, up from 11 times previously [32][34].