Group 1 - UBS reports that following the Federal Reserve's 25 basis point rate cut and the Hong Kong Monetary Authority's adjustment of the overnight discount rate, Hong Kong banks have lowered the prime rate by 12.5 basis points to 5.125%, aligning with market expectations [1] - After the adjustment, the new mortgage rate for newly built residential properties will decrease from 3.5% to 3.375% [1] - UBS maintains that Hong Kong property prices will remain stable in 2025, with a potential moderate recovery of 0% to 5% in 2026 after inventory digestion [1] Group 2 - Among developers, UBS favors the performance of Sino Land, Henderson Land, and Kerry Properties over New World Development due to the latter's unattractive dividend yield [1] - UBS also prefers Hang Lung Properties, as the decline in HIBOR will reduce its interest expenses [1] - UBS has raised the target price for Sino Land by 14% to HKD 11.2, maintaining a "Buy" rating, reflecting a narrowing of the net asset value discount from 40% to 35%, supported by strong sales at Victoria Harbour and The Pacific Place, and a potential reduction in scrip dividend arrangements [1]

Group 1 - The recent government policy report did not introduce significant surprises for the real estate market, as measures like stamp duty exemptions and the "Home Purchase Scheme" were not implemented, which is not expected to cause downward pressure [1] - The only slightly positive easing measure is the relaxation of the new "Capital Investor Scheme," allowing residential units valued over HKD 30 million to qualify, which aligns with expectations [1] - Following the policy report, Hong Kong real estate stocks reacted mildly, with the sector underperforming the Hang Seng Index by 2% on September 17 [1] Group 2 - Despite the lack of strong easing policies in the report, the company believes the real estate market may stabilize in the second half of 2025, with property prices expected to rise by 3-5% in 2026 [1] - Preferred developers include Henderson Land Development (00012) and Sino Land Company (00083) [1] - Among property owners, the most favored are Swire Properties (01972) and Hang Lung Properties (00101), followed by Wharf Real Estate Investment Company (01997) and Link REIT (00823) [1]

Group 1 - The recent policy report from the government does not present significant surprises for the real estate market, as measures like stamp duty exemptions and the "Home Purchase Scheme" have not been implemented, which is not expected to cause downward pressure [1] - The only slightly positive easing measure is the relaxation of the new "Capital Investor Scheme," allowing residential units valued over HKD 30 million to qualify, which aligns with expectations [1] - Following the policy report, Hong Kong real estate stocks reacted mildly, with the sector underperforming the Hang Seng Index by 2% on September 17 [1] Group 2 - Despite the lack of strong easing policies in the report, the company believes the real estate market may stabilize in the second half of 2025, with property prices expected to rise by 3-5% in 2026 [1] - Preferred developers include Henderson Land Development (00012) and Sino Land Company (00083), while the most favored landlords are Swire Properties (01972) and Hang Lung Properties (00101), followed by Wharf Real Estate Investment Company (01997) and Link REIT (00823) [1]

Core Viewpoint - Citigroup's research report indicates that the Hong Kong government's Chief Executive, John Lee, has presented his fourth Policy Address, highlighting the optimization of capital investment plans and predicting that the super luxury property market will continue to outperform [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The report states that transactions for properties priced between HKD 30 million and HKD 50 million accounted for approximately 1.2% of total transactions in the first half of the year, with a transaction value of around HKD 14 billion [1] - Hong Kong real estate stocks have risen approximately 25% year-to-date, and the fourth quarter performance is expected to be driven by several factors [1] Group 2: Influencing Factors - The CCL leading index for second-hand property prices increased by 1.2% week-on-week, with a cumulative increase of 0.8% for the year; if this trend continues, it may narrow the net asset value (NAV) discount for real estate stocks [1] - Following a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve, it is estimated that Hong Kong's best lending rate will decrease by 12.5 basis points [1] - Strong retail performance is anticipated during the Golden Week in Hong Kong and mainland China [1] Group 3: Preferred Stocks - Citigroup's preferred stocks include Link REIT, Swire Properties, and New World Development, with a positive outlook on Hang Lung Properties as well [1] - The company expects an increase in pricing power for new developments, combined with potential interest rate cuts, leading to significant residential property prices and transaction volumes by the end of the year [1]

Group 1 - The core driving factors of the Hong Kong real estate market are interest rate fluctuations, with a downward trend in the US benchmark interest rate expected to be a certainty in the near term [1][2] - The Hong Kong real estate market has entered a new cycle driven by policy changes and structural differentiation, with a significant rebound expected following the "withdrawal of tightening" policy in February 2024 [1][2] - The total transaction volume of new and second-hand residential properties in Hong Kong is projected to reach 53,099 transactions in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 23.5% compared to 2023 [1] Group 2 - The recovery of the Hong Kong market is attributed to the resonance of three main factors: policy, interest rates, and demand, with a shift from suppression to full stimulation in the policy environment after February 2024 [2] - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority injected a total of HKD 129 billion into the market due to a strong Hong Kong dollar, leading to a significant drop in the 1-month HIBOR from 3.98% to 0.57% [2] - The introduction of talent recruitment plans has contributed to a year-on-year population growth in Hong Kong by June 2025, enhancing purchasing power and stabilizing the market [2] Group 3 - The current phase of the Hong Kong real estate market is characterized as an initial recovery stage, marked by a halt in price declines, a narrowing of price drops, and structural stabilization [3] - Transaction volumes have rebounded, and sentiment indicators have improved, indicating a shift in policy direction from "preventing bubbles" to "stabilizing the market" [3] - Leading indicators show a continuous decline in interest rates, increased supply, improved inventory digestion rates, and a positive impact on demand from population recovery [3]

Core Viewpoint - Hong Kong real estate stocks experienced an afternoon rally, driven by market expectations of favorable government policies in the upcoming 2025 policy address [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - New World Development (00016) rose by 4.33% to HKD 97.55 - Hang Lung Properties (00101) increased by 2.33% to HKD 8.8 - Hysan Development (00012) gained 2.07% to HKD 27.6 - Henderson Land Development (00014) climbed 1.71% to HKD 16.08 [1] Group 2: Government Policy Expectations - The Hong Kong government is set to announce the 2025 policy address on Wednesday, 17th - UBS anticipates the government will reduce stamp duty on residential properties valued between HKD 4 million to HKD 6 million - Proposed initiatives include a "Home Purchase Fund" plan, further relaxation of capital investor entry qualifications, and measures to attract more mainland visitors [1] Group 3: Impact on Real Estate Developers - The new policy address is expected to benefit developers such as Hysan Development, New World Development, and Sino Land - Increased mainland visitor traffic is likely to support regional mall owners, including Wharf Real Estate Investment and Hysan Development - Accelerated development in the Northern Metropolis may pose negative implications for MTR Corporation due to rising capital expenditure concerns, but could positively impact land reclamation for Henderson Land Development [1] Group 4: REITs and Market Outlook - UBS predicts that the inclusion of Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) in the mutual market connectivity will have a positive effect on Link REIT [1]

该行又指，发表施政报告翌日美联储亦将公布议息结果，根据过往纪录，若减息符合预期，香港地产股 表现普遍逊于大市;不过小摩对本地地产行业未来一年前景仍持正面看法，建议可趁低吸纳，在发展商 中较看好恒基地产(00012)和信和置业(00083);收租股方面，建议风险胃纳较低投资者选择太古地产 (01792)及领展房产基金(00823)，同时认为恒隆地产(00101)及九龙仓置业(01997)有较大上行空间。 摩根大通发布研报称，新一份施政报告将于9月17日发表，市场憧憬或放宽新资本投资者入境计划、住 宅物业印花税及设立购房资金通计划。小摩对于当局会否一次过推出所有措施存有疑问，认为现时楼市 已见回稳迹象，若最终出台的政策力度较预期弱，施政报告公布后地产股或出现短期获利回吐。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the upcoming policy report on September 17 may introduce measures to ease capital investor entry, stamp duty on residential properties, and establish a home purchase fund plan, but there are doubts about the extent of these measures [1] - Morgan Stanley expresses skepticism about whether all measures will be introduced at once, noting that the property market shows signs of stabilization, and if the policies are weaker than expected, there may be short-term profit-taking in real estate stocks after the report is released [1] - The day after the policy report, the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision, and historically, if a rate cut meets expectations, Hong Kong real estate stocks tend to underperform the market [1] Group 2 - Despite the short-term concerns, Morgan Stanley maintains a positive outlook on the local real estate sector for the next year, suggesting investors take advantage of lower prices [1] - Among developers, Morgan Stanley is more optimistic about Henderson Land Development (00012) and Sino Land Company (00083) [1] - For rental stocks, it recommends Swire Properties (01792) and Link Real Estate Investment Trust (00823) for investors with lower risk appetite, while also noting that Hang Lung Properties (00101) and Wharf Real Estate Investment Company (01997) have significant upside potential [1]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley believes that Hang Lung Properties (00101) will outperform the market in the next 60 days, with an estimated probability of over 80% due to improvements in China's luxury retail sales driven by rising stock markets, improved market sentiment, increased attention on local brands, and a rise in inbound tourism [1] Company Summary - Hang Lung Properties has an attractive price-to-book ratio of 0.3 times and a dividend yield of 6.5% [1] - Morgan Stanley has set a target price of HKD 9 for Hang Lung Properties and has rated it as "Buy" [1] Industry Summary - There is a noted improvement in China's luxury retail sales, which is a positive indicator for companies in the sector [1] - Factors contributing to this improvement include a rising stock market, enhanced market sentiment, increased focus on domestic brands, and a boost in inbound tourism [1]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley believes that Hang Lung Properties (00101) will outperform the market in the next 60 days, with an estimated probability of over 80% due to improvements in China's luxury retail sales driven by rising stock markets, improved market sentiment, increased attention on local brands, and a rise in inbound tourism [1] Company Summary - Hang Lung Properties has an attractive price-to-book ratio of 0.3 times and a dividend yield of 6.5% [1] - Morgan Stanley sets a target price of HKD 9 for Hang Lung Properties and rates it as "Buy" [1]