Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for both A and H shares of Sinopec [1] Core Views - The company's performance is under pressure due to fluctuating oil prices, but it continues to provide high dividends to shareholders [1] - The report adjusts the forecast for net profit for 2025 and 2026 to 546 billion and 603 billion RMB respectively, with a new estimate for 2027 at 655 billion RMB [7] - The report highlights the integrated advantages of Sinopec's refining and chemical sectors, expecting profitability to improve as oil prices stabilize [7] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 3,212.215 billion RMB, with a year-on-year decrease of 3.19% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 is estimated at 60.463 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 9.87% [1] - The latest diluted EPS is forecasted at 0.50 RMB for 2023, decreasing to 0.41 RMB in 2024, before gradually increasing to 0.54 RMB by 2027 [1] - The P/E ratio for A shares is projected to be 11.57 for 2023, increasing to 13.91 in 2024, and then decreasing to 10.69 by 2027 [1] Segment Performance Summary - Upstream exploration and development profits increased by 29% year-on-year to 49.1 billion RMB in 2024, driven by stable oil and gas prices [7] - The refining segment reported a significant profit decline of 67% year-on-year to 6.3 billion RMB in 2024, primarily due to falling product prices and reduced diesel sales [7] - The marketing and distribution segment's profit decreased by 31% year-on-year to 17.7 billion RMB in 2024, attributed to weak diesel consumption and the rise of electric vehicles [7] Dividend Policy - The company plans to distribute a total cash dividend of 369 billion RMB for 2024, with a payout ratio of approximately 73% [7] - The projected dividend per share is 0.286 RMB, resulting in a dividend yield of 5.3% for A shares and 6.4% for H shares after tax [7]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs assigns a "Neutral" rating to Sinopec (00386, 600028.SH) with a target price of HKD 4.50, citing expected weak free cash flow due to declining refining margins and oversupply in the chemical market [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Sinopec's fourth-quarter performance in refining, sales, and chemical sectors fell short of expectations, with EBITDA 19% lower than Goldman Sachs' forecast due to higher operational costs [2] - The company's gross profit met expectations, but overall performance was impacted by lower-than-expected profit margins across multiple business segments [2] Group 2: Dividend and Cash Flow - The dividend payout ratio for 2024 is expected to remain around 71%, consistent with 2023, leading to a 17% year-on-year decline in earnings per share dividends [3] - Despite a projected positive free cash flow in 2024 after two years of negative results, the free cash flow yield of 1.3% is below Goldman Sachs' expectation of 5% due to lower earnings and high capital expenditures [3] - Capital expenditures for 2024 are expected to be 11% higher than Goldman Sachs' forecast, with a slight decrease of 1% compared to 2023, and a projected capital expenditure of RMB 164.3 billion for 2025, which is 6% above expectations [3]

Core Viewpoint - China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec) reported a significant decline in annual profits, reflecting increasing operational challenges amid a downturn in oil consumption and government policies aimed at reducing fuel production while boosting petrochemical output [3][4]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Sinopec's net profit for 2024 is projected to drop to 49 billion RMB (approximately 6.8 billion USD), down from 58.3 billion RMB the previous year, falling short of analyst expectations of 56.4 billion RMB [3]. - The company's refining business saw operating profits plummet by 67% to 6.71 billion RMB, influenced by a 3% decline in global average oil prices compared to the previous year [3]. - The chemical segment experienced an operating loss that widened by 66% to 10 billion RMB [4]. Group 2: Market Conditions - National oil consumption in China decreased last year, and the International Energy Agency anticipates continued declines in road fuel demand this year due to the rise of electric vehicles [3]. - The real estate sector's contraction has further suppressed the willingness of refining companies to increase production rates [3]. Group 3: Strategic Adjustments - Sinopec plans to reduce its annual budget from 175 billion RMB in 2024 to 164.3 billion RMB this year, while aiming to increase oil equivalent production by 1.3% to 522 million barrels [3]. - The company intends to cut refined oil sales by 2.7% to adapt to weak demand, while also focusing on replacing outdated facilities with new integrated complexes to support future growth in petrochemical product demand, projected to grow at an average rate of 3% annually until 2030 [4]. Group 4: Natural Gas Operations - Sinopec's natural gas production is expected to grow by 4.7% in 2024, significantly outpacing the 0.3% growth in oil production [4]. - The liquefied natural gas (LNG) business achieved record profits last year, despite the imposition of a 15% tariff on U.S. LNG imports due to trade tensions [4][5]. Group 5: Contracts and Partnerships - Sinopec has signed a long-term contract with U.S. supplier Venture Global, with plans to adjust logistics based on U.S. tariff conditions [5].

石油化工产业链主要包括上游勘探开采、中游炼化加工和下游销售服务三大环节。上游环节负责油气资 源的勘探和开采；中游环节包括原油加工、化工产品生产等；下游环节则包括成品油销售、化工产品销 售等。中国石化作为一体化能源化工公司，业务覆盖全产业链，具有显著的综合优势。 近期，中国石化在多个领域取得重要进展。公司联合文化和旅游部发布"百城千站"文化和旅游消费行动 计划，计划投入25亿补贴回馈用户，全面构建"人·车·生活"智能生态圈。在页岩油勘探方面，胜利济阳 页岩油国家级示范区油气勘探取得重大突破，探明地质储量达1.4亿多吨，技术可采储量达1135.99万 吨。此外，公司还首次制定了市值管理制度，发布《中国石油化工股份有限公司市值管理办法》，进一 步完善公司治理。 页岩油气板块：中国石化页岩油勘探取得重大突破，将带动相关技术和服务需求增长。公司成功攻克页 岩油高温、高压、涌漏并存的世界级难题，相关技术突破将推动整个页岩油气产业发展。 高股息精选板块：中国石化75%的分红比例创下历史新高，A/H股股息率分别达到5%和7%，凸显其投 资价值。 相关板块分析： 石油化工板块：受益于中国石化高比例分红和页岩油勘探突破，板块估值 ...

EE305 Next Day Disclosure Return (Equity issuer - changes in issued shares or treasury shares, share buybacks and/or on-market sales of treasury shares) Instrument: Equity issuer Status: New Submission Name of Issuer: China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation 25 March 2025 Date Submitted: Section I must be completed by a listed issuer where has been a charge in its issued shares or teasury shares which is discloseable pursuant to rule 13.25A of the Rules Gov .i.sting of Securities on The Stock Exchange of Hong ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the phosphate chemical sector, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in this industry [6]. Core Insights - The export window for phosphate fertilizers is expected to open after the spring farming season, with new regulations set to enhance the quality and quantity of fertilizer exports. This is anticipated to support the profitability of phosphate fertilizer companies [2]. - Domestic prices for phosphate fertilizers are under downward pressure due to reduced agricultural demand, but the opening of export channels may help stabilize prices and maintain profitability [2]. - The average gross profit margin for the industrial-grade monoammonium phosphate sector remains above 400 CNY/ton, while the agricultural-grade monoammonium phosphate sector is nearing a loss [3]. - Phosphate rock prices remain high, with domestic prices reported at 1020 CNY/ton. Companies with high-grade phosphate rock resources are better positioned to produce high-quality phosphate products and benefit from integrated cost advantages [4]. Summary by Sections Phosphate Fertilizer Market - The export volume of monoammonium phosphate and diammonium phosphate in 2024 is projected at 2.0047 million tons and 4.5632 million tons, respectively, showing year-on-year declines of 1.6% and 9.4% [2]. - The average price of industrial-grade monoammonium phosphate has increased by 10.8% since the beginning of the year, reaching 6393 CNY/ton, while agricultural-grade monoammonium phosphate has risen by 9.3% to 3316 CNY/ton [3]. Phosphate Rock Resources - The average grade of phosphate rock in China is around 17%, with only 20% of reserves classified as medium to high-grade (25% P2O5 and above). Companies with access to high-grade resources are more competitive [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the phosphate chemical sector, including Ba Tian Co., Chuanheng Co., Yuntu Holdings, Yuntianhua, Xingfa Group, Xinyangfeng, Chuanfa Longmang, Chuanjinnuo, and Hubei Yihua, due to their strong resource positions and integrated production capabilities [4].

EE305 Next Day Disclosure Return (Equity issuer - changes in issued shares or treasury shares, share buybacks and/or on-market sales of treasury shares) Instrument: Equity issuer Status: New Submission Name of Issuer: China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation 24 March 2025 Date Submitted: Section I must be completed by a listed issuer where has been a charge in its issued shares or teasury shares which is discloseable pursuant to rule 13.25A of the Rules Gov .i.sting of Securities on The Stock Exchange of Hong ...

Core Viewpoint - The performance of Sinopec in 2024 is significantly impacted by weak gasoline and diesel consumption, leading to a nearly 17% year-on-year decline in net profit [1][2]. Financial Performance - In 2024, Sinopec's operating revenue decreased by 4.3% to 3.07 trillion yuan, while net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 16.8% to 50.31 billion yuan [2]. - The company's main business revenue dropped by 4.2% to 3.02 trillion yuan due to a decline in both volume and price of refined oil products [2]. Segment Performance - The refining and marketing & distribution segments saw revenue declines of 3.2% and 5.7%, respectively, reaching 1.48 trillion yuan and 1.71 trillion yuan [3]. - Operating profits for the refining segment and marketing & distribution segment plummeted by 67.4% and 28.1%, amounting to 6.71 billion yuan and 18.65 billion yuan [3]. - The chemical segment experienced a significant loss of 9.997 billion yuan, worsening by nearly 4 billion yuan compared to 2023, despite a 1.7% increase in revenue to 523.9 billion yuan [3]. Upstream Growth - The exploration and production segment achieved a 25.4% increase in operating profit to 56.39 billion yuan, despite a slight revenue decline of 0.9% to 297.2 billion yuan [4]. - Cost reductions in LNG procurement, oil and gas cash operating costs, and exploration expenses contributed to the profit growth in this segment [4]. Future Outlook - Sinopec plans to invest 164.3 billion yuan in capital expenditures for 2025, with 76.7 billion yuan allocated to exploration and production, focusing on oil and gas capacity construction [4]. - The company aims to increase production of ethylene by 15.7% to 15.59 million tons in 2024, anticipating a 4.6% growth in domestic ethylene equivalent consumption in 2025 [5].

汽柴油消费疲软拖累业绩，中国石化2024年净利润 同比跌近17% "2024年，国内新增产能持续释放，化工毛利大幅缩窄；受境内汽、柴油经营量及价差下降影响，全年 成品油销售板块息税前利润同比下降23.9%至223亿元。"在3月24日召开的业绩说明会上，中国石化财 务总监寿东华描述了公司过去一年主要经营表现。 2024年，中国石化营业收入同比降低4.3%至3.07万亿元，归母净利润同比下降16.8%至503.13亿元。公 司称，国际原油价格震荡下行，国内交通行业新能源替代加速，化工市场新增产能持续释放，毛利大幅 收窄。由于成品油等产品量价齐跌，公司主营业务收入同比降低4.2%至30152亿元。 中国石化将经营活动分为勘探及开发事业部、炼油事业部、营销及分销事业部、化工事业部四个事业部 和本部及其他。其中，炼油事业部和营销及分销事业部为公司贡献了超过六成经营收入。 由于成品油消费疲软，以及成品油价格随原油价格下降，2024年中国石化炼油事业部和营销及分销事业 部经营收入分别同比下滑3.2%、5.7%，降至1.48万亿元和1.71万亿元，经营收益更是显著下滑67.4%、 28.1%，至67.14亿元和186.46亿 ...

Core Viewpoint - China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec) reported a strong financial performance for 2024, with a focus on shareholder returns and strategic growth in oil and gas production, refining, and green energy initiatives [1][2][3][4][5]. Financial Performance - The company achieved a total revenue of RMB 3.07 trillion and a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 48.94 billion, resulting in earnings per share of RMB 0.404 [1]. - The expected cash dividend per share is RMB 0.286, leading to a profit distribution ratio of 75% when combined with share buybacks [2]. Oil and Gas Production - Sinopec's total oil and gas equivalent production reached 515.35 million barrels, marking a 2.2% year-on-year increase. Domestic crude oil production was 254 million barrels, up 0.9%, while natural gas production rose by 4.7% to 14,004 billion cubic feet [2]. - The company reported a domestic oil and gas reserve replacement ratio of 144% [2]. Refining and Chemical Operations - Sinopec processed 252 million tons of crude oil, producing 153 million tons of refined products, with gasoline and kerosene production increasing by 2.6% and 8.6%, respectively [3]. - The company achieved a record high in PX production and increased its ethylene output to 13.47 million tons, with total chemical product operations reaching 83.45 million tons, including a 13.1% rise in export volume [3]. Green and Innovative Development - Sinopec is advancing its integrated energy service model, focusing on low-carbon development and expanding its hydrogen and electric service offerings [4]. - The company has made significant strides in technology and innovation, including breakthroughs in deep shale gas exploration and the establishment of a national-level research institution in the energy sector [4]. - Sinopec's carbon capture and methane recovery efforts saw increases of 20.1% and 9.4%, respectively, while comprehensive energy consumption per unit of output decreased by 4.9% [4]. Future Outlook - The chairman of Sinopec indicated that by 2025, the company aims to enhance its transformation and upgrade towards high-end, intelligent, and green development, focusing on high-quality growth [5].