公司报告 | 半年报点评 中国石化（600028） 证券研究报告 油价下行导致业绩短期承压，"反内卷"或扭转局面 2025H1 业绩因多方面因素承压明显 2025H1 公司实现收入 14090.5 亿，同比-10.6%，归母净利润 214.8 亿，同 比-39.8%，主要是因为油价走低，库存减利，国内汽柴油销量和价差均下 行，航煤、芳烃等产品毛利下滑。 或因减油增化趋势，化工板块受产能集中投放、芳烃等产品盈利下滑、装 置集中检修等因素，上半年经营亏损 42 亿元，同比增亏 11 亿。后续我们 预计"反内卷"政策红利或扭转化工亏损局面。 面临成品油达峰问题，销量下滑明显 由于国内成品油需求达峰问题较为严峻，营销板块汽柴煤油销量同比分别 -4.9%/-6.8%/-8.4%，实现价格分别-6.4%/-8.2%/12.7%，营销板块收益 80 亿， 同比-67 亿（同比-45.7%）。 资本开支继续放缓，利好长期盈利和现金流能力 公司计划下调全年资本开支 5%左右，或利好长期盈利和现金流能力。 2025H1 资本开支 438 亿（同比-14%），其中上游/炼油/化工/销售分别 276/55/73/28 亿，主要炼油/ ...

Core Viewpoint - The company anticipates a significant decline in net profit for the first half of 2025, with projections indicating a drop of 39.5% to 43.7% year-on-year, primarily due to falling oil prices and low refining margins [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - For 2025H1, the expected net profit attributable to shareholders is between 20.1 billion to 21.6 billion yuan, with Q2 alone projected to be between 6.8 billion to 8.3 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 52.1% to 60.7% [1][2]. - The average price of Brent crude oil in Q2 is expected to be $66.71 per barrel, down 21.5% year-on-year and 11.0% quarter-on-quarter, contributing to the pressure on profits [2]. Group 2: Operational Insights - The company has increased its oil and gas equivalent production by 2.0% year-on-year in 2025H1, with domestic crude oil production at 126.73 million barrels (up 0.2% year-on-year) and natural gas production at 20.9 billion cubic meters (up 5.1% year-on-year) [2][3]. - In refining, the company processed 111.97 million tons of crude oil in 2025H1, a decrease of 5.3% year-on-year, with gasoline and diesel production down 4.8% and 17.2% respectively [3]. Group 3: Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on optimizing its production and operational efficiency, aiming to enhance its competitive edge through reforms and structural adjustments during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [4]. - Capital expenditure for upstream operations in 2025 is planned at 76.7 billion yuan, with a target of 1.3% growth in oil and gas equivalent production [4]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The company is committed to long-term strategies, including investments in new energy and materials, with expected net profits for 2025-2027 revised to 45.3 billion, 55.5 billion, and 66.2 billion yuan respectively [5]. - The company maintains a "buy" rating for its A-shares and H-shares, anticipating improved performance as chemical market conditions stabilize and new capacities come online [5][6].

Core Viewpoint - Blue Ocean New Materials Company is enhancing its innovation capabilities by implementing the "Blue Ocean Scholar" program, which aims to attract industry experts to form a think tank and improve core technology development [1] Group 1: Technology Innovation - Technology innovation is the core driving force for the development of Blue Ocean New Materials, essential for breakthroughs in the new materials sector and gaining competitive advantages [2] - The company has established a three-tier management structure for technology management, including a Scientific Committee and an Innovation Union Council, focusing on high-end polyolefins, specialty engineering plastics, biomanufacturing, and high-end carbon materials [2] - Blue Ocean New Materials is involved in over ten major technology research projects, including national science and technology major special projects and regional company-level research projects [2] Group 2: Technical Support Platforms - The company has built various platforms, including functional performance management, polymer, biomanufacturing, high-end carbon materials, and green low-carbon platforms, to ensure collaborative effects and facilitate rapid industrialization of lab results [3] - By the end of 2025, the Blue Ocean (Nantong) pilot base aims to be established as a national-level pilot base, promoting the incubation of mature technologies and enhancing the integration of technological and industrial innovation [3] - The company collaborates with institutions like China Kunlun Engineering and Changzhou University to form an innovation union that covers technology research, engineering transformation, and industrial implementation [3] Group 3: Talent Development - Blue Ocean New Materials implements a talent-driven development strategy, aiming to increase the proportion of research personnel to 50% and build a high-level talent team [4] - The company has established the "Blue Ocean Scholar" expert team to drive breakthroughs in key technologies and their industrial applications [4] - A customized mentorship program is in place to accelerate the growth of young talents, combining theoretical and practical training [4] Group 4: Production Quality Enhancement - The company plans to build 18 new domestic production units for advanced materials such as α-olefins and carbon fibers to meet high-end market demands [5] Group 5: Green and Smart Development - Blue Ocean New Materials focuses on enhancing its environmental credentials by improving electrification rates and developing a "zero-carbon factory" model [6] - The company is exploring a circular economy system and integrating ESG principles into its strategic design [6] - Smart construction and integrated engineering management are being implemented to create a highly intelligent factory environment [6]

【DT新材料】 获悉，4月28日， 中国石化 发布2025年第一季度业绩报告。公司 第一季度营收 7353.56亿元，同比下降6.9%；归母净利润132.64亿元，同比下降27.6%，其中： （1）勘探及开发板块 一季度息税前利润为136.31亿元 ，仍然是公司最大的利润来源。 （2）炼油板块 一季度息税前利润为23.93 亿元 。公司坚持低成本"油转化"、高价值"油转特"，增产化工原料和航 煤，持续压降柴汽比， 大力推进高端碳材料、特种油品等产品发展 。 其中， 生物航煤方面 ， 2月26日，装载500吨中国石化生物航煤的"圣油238"轮驶向香港，并供应 香港国际机场，这是中国石化生物航煤首次供应香港。 3月11日，香港公司与顺丰集团正式签订可 持续航空燃油（SAF）大宗采购合作协议。 高端碳材料 方面，重点发力 在针状焦、负极材料专用焦和低排阳极专用焦。 今年2月， 茂名石化 稳定产出可用作优质锂离子电池负极材料的Ⅰ类针状焦，质量指标达到国内先进水平。3月份， 湖南 石化 生产的首批动力电池专用高端石油焦产品发往国内头部动力电池企业。 （3）营销及分销板块 一季度 息税前利润为48.67亿元 。其中， 加 ...