Core Viewpoint - Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited (HKEX) has shown strong financial performance with a significant increase in revenue and profit, while the stock price is currently facing downward pressure from technical indicators [1][2]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, HKEX reported revenue of HKD 14.076 billion, a year-on-year increase of 33% [1]. - The profit attributable to shareholders reached HKD 8.519 billion, reflecting a 39% year-on-year growth, marking a record high for the company [1]. Market Sentiment - There are currently 230 companies in the IPO application queue, indicating a positive outlook for the new stock market [1]. - The stock price of HKEX was reported at HKD 455.4, down 1.60% on the previous trading day, and further down to HKD 454.2 in early trading today, a decrease of 0.26% [1]. Technical Analysis - Technical indicators suggest a "sell" signal with a strength of 10, indicating a potential downward trend in the medium to long term [1]. - Multiple oscillators are showing "buy" signals, with the RSI at 69, indicating a neutral market direction in the short term [1]. Support and Resistance Levels - The first support level for HKEX is at HKD 440, with a lower support at HKD 429. The first resistance level is at HKD 470, with a higher resistance at HKD 480 [2]. - The system estimates a 55% probability of price increase, with a recent volatility of 8.5% over the past five days, suggesting some speculative opportunities in the market [2]. Derivative Products Performance - On August 22, 2025, HKEX saw a 1.65% increase, with various structured products like warrants and bull/bear certificates showing significant leverage effects, amplifying returns [4]. - Specific warrants such as the Barclays call warrant (16781) have a leverage of 12.4 times, while UBS call warrant (16698) has a leverage of 11.6 times, indicating high potential for upward movement [7]. Investment Options - For bullish investors, the Barclays call warrant (16781) and UBS call warrant (16698) are recommended due to their high leverage and relatively low premiums [7]. - For bearish strategies, the Credit Suisse put warrant (19716) offers a leverage of 5.8 times, making it a viable option for those anticipating a downward adjustment in HKEX's stock price [8].

Key Points - The top three companies with net inflows of southbound funds are Alibaba-W (09988) with 581 million, Kangfang Biotech (09926) with 541 million, and Hong Kong Stock Exchange (00388) with 434 million [1] - The top three companies with net outflows of southbound funds are Yingfu Fund (02800) with -2.396 billion, Xiaomi Group-W (01810) with -1.524 billion, and SMIC (00981) with -845 million [1] - In terms of net inflow ratios, the top three companies are Quan Feng Holdings (02285) at 51.60%, Sen Song International (02155) at 49.91%, and GX China (03040) at 43.94% [1] - The top three companies with the highest net outflow ratios are Yihai International (01579) at -51.63%, Zhou Hei Ya (01458) at -49.54%, and Kangji Medical (09997) at -46.09% [1] Net Inflow Rankings - Alibaba-W (09988) had a net inflow of 581 million, representing a 2.88% increase in closing price to 124.500 [2] - Kangfang Biotech (09926) saw a net inflow of 541 million, with a closing price of 169.500, down 4.18% [2] - Hong Kong Stock Exchange (00388) experienced a net inflow of 434 million, closing at 462.800, up 3.30% [2] - Kuaishou-W (01024) had a net inflow of 428 million, closing at 78.750, up 5.14% [2] - Horizon Robotics-W (09660) recorded a net inflow of 401 million, closing at 7.760, up 1.31% [2] Net Outflow Rankings - Yingfu Fund (02800) had the largest net outflow of -2.396 billion, with a closing price of 26.360, up 2.01% [2] - Xiaomi Group-W (01810) experienced a net outflow of -1.524 billion, closing at 53.500, up 1.81% [2] - SMIC (00981) saw a net outflow of -845 million, with a closing price of 57.800, up 1.58% [2] - CNOOC (00883) had a net outflow of -708 million, closing at 18.830, up 0.53% [2] - Pop Mart (09992) recorded a net outflow of -418 million, closing at 326.600, up 1.94% [2] Net Inflow Ratio Rankings - Quan Feng Holdings (02285) had a net inflow ratio of 51.60%, with a net inflow of 24.33 million, closing at 24.300, up 5.29% [3] - Sen Song International (02155) recorded a net inflow ratio of 49.91%, with a net inflow of 54.68 million, closing at 10.900, up 1.68% [3] - GX China (03040) had a net inflow ratio of 43.94%, with a net inflow of 1.29 million, closing at 37.820, up 2.55% [3] Net Outflow Ratio Rankings - Yihai International (01579) had a net outflow ratio of -51.63%, with a net outflow of -69.47 million, closing at 14.780, up 4.23% [3] - Zhou Hei Ya (01458) recorded a net outflow ratio of -49.54%, with a net outflow of -20.12 million, closing at 2.570, up 2.80% [3] - Kangji Medical (09997) had a net outflow ratio of -46.09%, with a net outflow of -30.83 million, closing at 8.680, up 0.35% [3]

Market Overview - Major blue-chip stocks mostly declined, with HSBC Holdings closing at HKD 100.610, up 0.51% from the previous close, while Tencent Holdings closed at HKD 592.833, down 1.03% [1] Stock Performance Summary - Tencent Holdings: Decreased by HKD 10.500, or 1.72%, with an ADR price of HKD 592.833, showing a decline of HKD 6.167 or 1.03% compared to the Hong Kong stock price [2] - Alibaba Group: Increased by HKD 0.200, or 0.16%, with an ADR price of HKD 118.977, down HKD 2.523 or 2.08% compared to the Hong Kong stock price [2] - HSBC Holdings: Decreased by HKD 0.100, or 0.10%, with an ADR price of HKD 100.610, up HKD 0.510 or 0.51% compared to the Hong Kong stock price [2] - AIA Group: Decreased by HKD 1.050, or 1.43%, with an ADR price of HKD 72.011, down HKD 0.389 or 0.54% compared to the Hong Kong stock price [2] - BYD Company: Decreased by HKD 2.500, or 2.13%, with an ADR price of HKD 114.159, down HKD 0.941 or 0.82% compared to the Hong Kong stock price [2] - JD.com: Decreased by HKD 3.100, or 2.49%, with an ADR price of HKD 120.000, down HKD 1.300 or 1.07% compared to the Hong Kong stock price [2]

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley has slightly raised its average daily trading volume (ADV) forecast for Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (HKEX) to HKD 230 billion for this year due to better-than-expected Q2 performance and strong ADV [1] - The ADV forecasts for 2026 and 2027 remain unchanged [1] - Morgan Stanley has increased its earnings per share (EPS) estimates for HKEX from 2025 to 2027 and maintained an "Overweight" rating, raising the target price from HKD 500 to HKD 508 [1]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley has updated its forecast for Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (HKEX) based on better-than-expected Q2 performance and strong average daily trading volume (ADV) to date [1] Summary by Category Performance Forecast - Morgan Stanley has slightly raised its ADV forecast for HKEX to HKD 230 billion for the current year, compared to the year-to-date ADV of HKD 245 billion as of August 22 [1] - The ADV forecasts for 2026 and 2027 remain unchanged at HKD 240 billion and HKD 265 billion, respectively [1] Earnings Projections - The earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for HKEX from 2025 to 2027 have been increased by 3.8%, 1.1%, and 1.1%, leading to growth rates of 25%, 5.3%, and 10.4% [1] Investment Rating - Morgan Stanley maintains an "Overweight" rating on HKEX, with the target price raised from HKD 500 to HKD 508 [1]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index (HSI) closed at 25,571.06, up by 46.14 points or 0.18% as of August 26, 16:00 Eastern Time [1] - The index reached a high of 25,692.07 and a low of 25,526.43 during the trading session, with a trading volume of 37.496 million [1] Major Blue-Chip Stocks Performance - Most large-cap stocks saw an increase, with HSBC Holdings closing at HKD 102.078, up by 1.87% compared to the Hong Kong close [2] - Tencent Holdings closed at HKD 610.224, reflecting a slight increase of 0.12% from the Hong Kong close [2] Stock Movements - Tencent Holdings experienced a decrease of HKD 5.000, or 0.81%, while its ADR price increased by HKD 0.724, or 0.12% [3] - Alibaba Group saw a decline of HKD 3.200, or 2.57%, with its ADR price down by HKD 0.317, or 0.26% [3] - HSBC Holdings dropped by HKD 1.300, or 1.28%, but its ADR price increased by HKD 1.878, or 1.87% [3] - Other notable movements include Meituan-W down by HKD 2.300, or 1.88%, and BYD Company up by HKD 1.800, or 1.55% [3]

Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index fell by 304.99 points, a decrease of 1.18%, closing at 25,524.92 points [1] - The main board recorded a total turnover of 317.87 billion HKD [1] - The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index dropped by 99.34 points, closing at 9,148.66 points, down 1.07% [1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index decreased by 42.85 points, closing at 5,782.24 points, a decline of 0.74% [1] Blue Chip Stocks - Tencent Holdings fell by 0.81%, closing at 609.5 HKD [1] - Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing dropped by 1.6%, closing at 455.4 HKD [1] - China Mobile decreased by 0.33%, closing at 90.05 HKD [1] - HSBC Holdings declined by 1.28%, closing at 100.2 HKD [1] Local Hong Kong Stocks - Cheung Kong Holdings fell by 2.03%, closing at 36.62 HKD [1] - Sun Hung Kai Properties dropped by 2.19%, closing at 91.7 HKD [1] - Henderson Land Development decreased by 1.31%, closing at 27.14 HKD [1] Chinese Financial Stocks - Bank of China fell by 2.04%, closing at 4.33 HKD [1] - China Construction Bank decreased by 2.33%, closing at 7.55 HKD [1] - Industrial and Commercial Bank of China dropped by 1.52%, closing at 5.85 HKD [1] - Ping An Insurance fell by 2.05%, closing at 57.45 HKD [1] - China Life Insurance decreased by 0.24%, closing at 24.68 HKD [1] Oil and Petrochemical Stocks - China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation fell by 0.23%, closing at 4.39 HKD [1] - China National Petroleum Corporation decreased by 0.67%, closing at 7.43 HKD [1] - CNOOC Limited rose by 0.85%, closing at 18.99 HKD [1]

Group 1 - Since 2020, nearly 200 brokerage firms have closed in Hong Kong, with expectations of more closures due to new allocation rules making it harder for retail investors to participate in popular IPOs [1][3] - According to HKEX data, 23 brokerages have notified the Hong Kong Stock Exchange of their cessation of trading this year, following 39 closures last year and a record 49 in 2022 [1][3] - The number of brokerages has decreased from a peak of 606 in 2019 to 498 as of June 2023, despite new entrants not being sufficient to reverse the trend [3] Group 2 - Small enterprises are facing a shrinking market share, with 400 small companies accounting for only 3.7% of trading volume in June, down from 40% in 2000 [4] - The top 14 companies hold 70.9% of the market share, while 51 mid-sized companies account for 25.4% [5] Group 3 - Small-cap stocks are increasingly opting to list on the Nasdaq rather than in Hong Kong or other markets, due to Nasdaq's tiered market structure that caters to companies at different stages of development [6] - Nasdaq offers various market tiers, including the Global Select Market for large mature companies, the Global Market for mid-sized firms, and the Capital Market designed for small emerging companies with flexible listing requirements [7][8]

Group 1: Company Performance - The company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of approximately HKD 617 million for the fiscal year 2024/25, representing a year-on-year increase of about 10% [1] - The total number of customer accounts reached 587,072 as of March 31, 2025, indicating strong growth in both profit and account numbers [1] Group 2: Support for 24-Hour Trading Mechanism - The company fully supports the Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) in implementing a 24-hour trading mechanism to enhance Hong Kong's financial market connectivity with the global market [2] - The CEO emphasized that the introduction of a 24-hour trading system would provide a more flexible and efficient trading environment for investors, while also increasing revenue for the company [2] - The company believes that the current bullish market conditions present an opportunity for HKEX to accelerate reforms and not fall behind other markets [2] Group 3: Market Trends and Conditions - The CEO pointed out that 24-hour trading has become an international trend, with increasing demand from investors for flexible trading hours, as seen in the U.S. extended trading hours and the continuous operation of cryptocurrency markets [3] - The company has already established 24-hour electronic deposit channels, allowing clients to deposit funds and trade at any time, indicating readiness for the implementation of a 24-hour trading mechanism [3] - The company suggests that if HKEX can successfully implement this mechanism, it could broaden business opportunities, attract more international capital, and enhance market liquidity [3]

Core Insights - Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) has implemented various measures to enhance market activity, resulting in significant performance improvements in 2025 [1][2] - The exchange aims to continue enhancing its platform, infrastructure, and product offerings to provide diverse options, ample liquidity, and efficient connectivity for investors and issuers [1] Market Performance - In the first half of 2025, HKEX achieved record highs in multiple market metrics, with an average daily trading amount of HKD 240.2 billion, a year-on-year increase of 118% [2] - The average daily trading volume for futures and options exceeded 1.7 million contracts, up 11% year-on-year [2] - The Hong Kong ETF market saw a significant increase, with an average daily trading amount of HKD 33.8 billion, rising 184% compared to the same period last year [2] - Northbound and southbound trading through the Stock Connect also reached record highs, with an average daily trading amount of RMB 171.3 billion, a 32% increase from the first half of 2024 [2] Revenue Growth - HKEX reported a record revenue and other income of HKD 14.076 billion in the first half of 2025, a 33% increase from the same period in 2024 [3] - The increase in trading activity significantly contributed to revenue growth, with trading fees and system usage fees reaching HKD 4.906 billion, up 49.11% year-on-year [3] - Clearing and settlement fees amounted to HKD 3.155 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 48.47% [3] - Nearly 90% of HKEX's profits are allocated for dividends, with a total interim dividend of approximately HKD 7.6 billion [3] IPO Market - HKEX regained the top position globally in terms of fundraising in the first half of 2025, welcoming 44 new listings, a 716% increase year-on-year [4] - Notable IPOs included CATL, which raised HKD 41 billion, marking the largest IPO on HKEX since February 2021 [4] - The number of companies waiting to go public reached 207, indicating a robust pipeline for new listings [4] - The total amount raised through refinancing reached HKD 244.8 billion, the highest for a half-year since 2021 [4] Strategic Initiatives - HKEX is advancing several strategic initiatives to solidify its role as a global hub, including extending the duration of interest rate swap contracts to 30 years to meet diverse risk management needs [5] - Plans to include RMB-denominated stocks in the Stock Connect are underway, enhancing connectivity between Hong Kong and mainland markets [5] - The introduction of the "Specialized Technology Company Route" allows tech firms to submit IPO applications confidentially, promoting a more accessible listing process [6] - HKEX has expanded its product offerings, including new stock options and the first Nasdaq-100 ETF listed in Asia, enhancing investor choices [6] Future Outlook - Despite various external uncertainties, HKEX remains cautiously optimistic about the market outlook for the second half of 2025, with confidence in its ability to adapt to changing conditions [6][7]