2026.02.24 本文字数：2360，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 陈姗姗 "除夕前一天才决定什么时候回去，一看两大机场都没经济舱了，好在蹭到了增班放票。" 刘林今年春节跟家人一起飞海南过年，由于没有及早购买回程票，一度陷入只能买高价公务舱返程机票的尴尬。这样的情况并非个案。 今年是海南自贸港封关运作后的首个春节，海南旅游的热度持续攀升，除了全国各地的旅客涌向海南，外国人来海南过中国年的也不少。 史上最长春节也显著推高了春节长线出境游需求，泰国位列多个平台热门出境目的地首位。 每天超10万人飞向海南 今年春运2月2日启动以来，岛内三大机场航班量、旅客吞吐量屡创新高，累计已有15天单日旅客吞吐量超过20万人次。 多家在线旅游平台数据显示，海南民航客流规模预计超越历史同期。尤其是三亚，十大客源地热门为北京、上海、成都、西安、杭州、重庆、广州、哈尔 滨、深圳、郑州。 大年初四，三亚西岛海洋文化旅游区一早就在官方账号发布"线上购票预约已达上限，景区11:00点暂停线上渠道售票，预计13:30临时暂停线下售票"的信 息。 在三亚住在离市区更近的大东海的刘林，感觉这里三分之一都是俄罗斯人，酒店里和沙滩上也都 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the aviation industry [5]. Core Insights - The 2026 Spring Festival travel demand is robust, with significant growth in air passenger traffic and an increase in ticket prices. The trend is expected to continue positively after the holiday, supported by lower oil prices, leading to improved profitability for airlines compared to the previous year [3][4]. Summary by Sections Overall Travel Volume - As of February 22, 2026, the total social mobility volume increased by 6.0% year-on-year, with aviation matching this growth rate. The travel volume during the pre-holiday period (February 2-14) grew by 3.1%, while the mid-holiday period (February 15-23) saw a significant increase of 9.7% [5][6][7]. Air Passenger Traffic - The average daily passenger volume for civil aviation during the first 21 days of the Spring Festival was approximately 2.39 million, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.0%. The growth rate aligns with expectations from the aviation authority. The limited increase in flight schedules has been noted, with a 5% increase in actual flights compared to the previous year [5][8]. Ticket Prices and Load Factors - The report estimates that the domestic load factor increased by approximately 1-2 percentage points year-on-year, with ticket prices (excluding fuel surcharges) rising by about 3-4%. The decrease in jet fuel prices by 13% year-on-year is expected to enhance the gross profit margins for airlines [5][8]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates a "super cycle" for the Chinese aviation industry, driven by sustained demand growth and a shift towards market-driven pricing. The expectation is that the supply-demand dynamics will improve in 2026, leading to upward trends in ticket prices and profitability. The report recommends an "Overweight" position on the aviation sector, highlighting specific airlines such as Air China, Juneyao Airlines, China Eastern Airlines, China Southern Airlines, and Spring Airlines for investment [5][14].

港股航空股逆势上涨，其中，国泰航空涨4%领衔，中国国航、中国南方航空、中国东方航空均涨超1% 以上。 | 代码 | 名称 | 最新价 涨跌幅 v | | --- | --- | --- | | 00293 | 国泰航空 | 13.350 3.97% | | 00753 | 中国国航 | 7.230 1.40% | | 01055 | 中国南方航空股 | 6.200 1.14% | | 00670 | 中国东方航空股 | 5.940 1.02% | 消息上，交通运输部公布2月16日—2月22日全国物流保通保畅运行数据。其中民航保障航班13.1万班 （其中货运航班2169班，包括国际货运航班2015班，国内货运航班154班）。数据显示，春节假期期 间，初五至初七，海南往返北京、上海的航班每日均超过100架次。特别是三亚机场每日宽体机执飞占 比已经从全年平均的8.5%提高到了30%以上，宽体机占比居全国前列。 华创证券研报指出，观察2026年马年，晚春节+长假期，今年春运呈现两大特征："二次出行+返程集 中"。在国新办1月29日的新闻发布会上，国家发展改革委副主任李春临介绍："今年农历新年时间较 晚，春节假期较长。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the aviation industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [47]. Core Insights - The Spring Festival travel season has seen a record high in cross-regional personnel flow, with an estimated total of 5.08 billion trips in the first 20 days, averaging 250 million trips per day, which is a 5.6% increase compared to the same period in 2025 [9][10]. - The aviation sector has shown strong performance in both passenger volume and ticket prices, with a 5.4% year-on-year increase in passenger volume and a 3.3% increase in average ticket prices during the same period [10][11]. - The 2026 Spring Festival is characterized by two main trends: "secondary travel" and "concentrated return trips," driven by a later Spring Festival and longer holiday period [12][13]. Summary by Sections Passenger Volume and Pricing - In the first 20 days of the Spring Festival, the average daily passenger volume for civil aviation reached 2.376 million, a 5.4% increase year-on-year, while the average ticket price was 1003 yuan, up 3.3% year-on-year [10][11]. - The domestic average passenger load factor was 85.1%, reflecting a 1.1% increase year-on-year, indicating strong demand [11]. Market Dynamics - Six listed airlines collectively withdrew 5 aircraft in January 2026, indicating a tightening supply constraint in the industry [26]. - The report highlights that except for Spring Airlines, all other major airlines have shown negative year-on-year growth in capacity deployment, with Spring Airlines leading at 4.5% growth [26]. Demand and Future Outlook - The demand structure in the aviation industry is improving, with a rebound in business travel sentiment since September 2025 [34]. - The introduction of visa-free policies for Canada and the UK starting February 17, 2026, is expected to boost cross-border travel demand [34]. - High passenger load factors are anticipated to lead to increased price elasticity, with the potential for significant price increases in 2026 [35]. Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on major airlines such as Air China, China Southern Airlines, and China Eastern Airlines for potential elasticity release, as well as low-cost carrier Spring Airlines for its core competitive advantages [35].

Core Insights - During the peak return period of the Spring Festival holiday, ticket prices for flights from Hainan surged, with some prices approaching 10,000 yuan, while ferry tickets across the Qiongzhou Strait were sold out [1][10] - Major airlines have increased flights, with over 2,000 additional flights scheduled during the Spring Festival period, and various measures have been implemented to facilitate passenger transport [1][13] Flight Pricing and Demand - On February 23, ticket prices for flights from Sanya and other locations in Hainan to major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen saw significant increases, with some prices nearing 10,000 yuan [1] - Prices are expected to drop significantly after February 26 [1] Airline Operations - The four major airlines have added flights to meet the high demand, with a total of over 2,000 additional flights planned during the Spring Festival, increasing seat capacity by approximately 600,000 [13] - The Civil Aviation Administration approved additional flights to popular destinations, with daily flights from Hainan to Beijing and Shanghai exceeding 100 during the peak days [13] Capacity and Infrastructure Improvements - The use of larger aircraft has been prioritized to increase seat availability, with wide-body aircraft operations increasing by 13% compared to last year during the Spring Festival [13][14] - Temporary air routes have been implemented to alleviate congestion during peak flight times, improving airspace capacity by 15% [14] Passenger Volume Statistics - Since the start of the Spring Festival travel season on February 2, the three major airports in Hainan have seen record-breaking passenger throughput, with over 20,000 passengers on 15 separate days [14]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the shipping industry, particularly focusing on oil transportation and shipbuilding sectors, recommending stocks such as ST Songfa and China Merchants Energy [4]. Core Insights - The report highlights a strong performance in oil shipping, with VLCC TCE rates rising by 24% to $146,385 per day, and a significant increase in demand leading to higher freight rates [4]. - The global energy chain's valuation is on the rise, driven by long-term capacity utilization and mid-cycle profit expectations, suggesting a favorable environment for shipping rates [4]. - The report emphasizes the resilience of the dry bulk market, with the BDI index recording a slight increase of 1.19% to 2,043 points, indicating stable demand despite seasonal fluctuations [5]. Summary by Sections Shipping Market Performance - The shipping index decreased by 1.41%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.77 percentage points, with the aviation sector experiencing the largest decline at -5.16% [5]. - The report notes that the coastal dry bulk freight index in China fell by 1.76%, while the Baltic Dry Index increased by 1.19% [5]. Oil Transportation - VLCC rates reached a new high of approximately $160,000 per day during the Spring Festival, with expectations for continued strength in the coming weeks [4]. - The report indicates that the average VLCC freight rate increased by 23% week-on-week, reaching $149,564 per day, reflecting tight capacity and strong demand [4]. Dry Bulk Market - The report mentions that the Capesize freight rate decreased by 4.1%, while the Panamax index showed resilience with a 3.5% increase [4]. - The report anticipates that post-holiday demand recovery will be crucial for the dry bulk market, particularly in iron ore shipments [4]. Air Transportation - The report suggests that the airline industry is at a turning point, with potential for significant profit growth due to increased passenger volumes and operational efficiencies [4]. - Airlines such as China Eastern Airlines and Spring Airlines are highlighted as key players to watch in this sector [4]. Express Delivery - The report notes uncertainties in the express delivery sector due to fluctuating demand and competitive pressures, but highlights the strong market position of leading companies like ZTO Express and YTO Express [4]. Rail and Road Transportation - Rail freight volumes and highway truck traffic are reported to be resilient, with the Ministry of Transport data showing a slight decrease in freight volume but overall stability [4]. - The report identifies two main investment themes in the highway sector: high dividend yields and potential value recovery in undervalued stocks [4].

Group 1 - Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport achieved a new record during the Spring Festival travel season with 1,676 flights and 277,600 passengers on a single day, marking year-on-year increases of 7.37%, 9.12%, and 9.1% respectively [1] - Since the start of the Spring Festival travel season on February 2, the airport has transported a total of 5.2785 million passengers, indicating a strong start to the new year [3] - Major airlines have increased capacity to meet the growing travel demand in Guangdong, with Air China planning 50 flights daily on 16 routes and enhancing service through comprehensive planning and resource allocation [3] Group 2 - Eastern Airlines has increased its seat capacity by over 100,000, a rise of 8.43%, and is expected to transport 1.28 million passengers, reflecting an 8.21% year-on-year growth [5] - The airline has optimized its international and domestic transfer processes and added flights to popular destinations, including new direct flights from Shenzhen to Harbin [5] - China Southern Airlines plans to operate over 126,000 passenger flights, including approximately 13,000 additional flights on more than 260 routes, and has introduced a "one-click boarding" service to enhance efficiency [7] Group 3 - The passenger flow at Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport remains high, continuously breaking single-day passenger records during the Spring Festival travel season, with expectations of sustained high traffic during the post-holiday return peak [9]

Core Viewpoint - The C919, China's domestically produced large passenger aircraft, is being utilized extensively during the Spring Festival travel season, enhancing connectivity for travelers in major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Wuhan [1][3]. Group 1: C919 Aircraft Operations - The C919 aircraft is now operational, with nine planes flying 36 segments daily during the Spring Festival, catering to a high volume of passengers [1]. - The aircraft represents a significant achievement in China's aviation industry, reflecting the dedication of aviation professionals from design to operation [3]. Group 2: Pilot's Perspective - The pilot, as a representative of the crew, emphasizes the responsibility of ensuring passenger safety and comfort, especially during the busy Spring Festival period [5][7]. - The emotional connection between the pilot and passengers is highlighted, as the pilot understands the importance of safe travel for families reuniting during the holiday [9]. Group 3: Passenger Experience - The flights are primarily filled with families, creating a warm atmosphere as children and elderly passengers look forward to reunions [5][7]. - The pilot expresses satisfaction in facilitating these reunions, noting the joy of seeing travelers eager to return home for the New Year celebrations [9].

Group 1 - The core idea of the news is the launch of a "New Year Gift Package" by Beijing's cultural and tourism bureau to welcome British tourists arriving in Beijing, enhancing cultural exchange and tourism ties between China and the UK [1][2] - The "send-off and welcome" event included a warm send-off in London and a reception in Beijing, showcasing the importance of bilateral cultural exchanges [2] - The gift package contained tickets to the Beijing Dadu New Year Temple Fair, Peking Opera performances, brochures for premium inbound tourism routes, and various small gifts, aiming to create a festive atmosphere for the arriving tourists [1] Group 2 - The event aligns with the consensus reached by leaders of China and the UK, emphasizing the importance of deepening bilateral cultural exchanges and promoting mutual understanding [2] - Data indicates that by 2025, the number of British tourists visiting Beijing is expected to reach 117,500, marking a significant growth point for inbound tourism in Beijing [2] - Starting from February 17, 2026, China will implement a visa exemption policy for ordinary passport holders from Canada and the UK, facilitating easier travel for business, tourism, family visits, and transit for up to 30 days [2]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the aviation industry [5]. Core Insights - The demand for civil aviation during the 2026 Spring Festival is expected to be strong, with limited additional flights, leading to a gradual narrowing of passenger growth rates. Ticket prices are anticipated to continue rising year-on-year during and after the holiday period. Coupled with lower oil prices, airline profitability is expected to improve significantly compared to the previous year [3][4]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The 2026 Spring Festival travel season officially began on February 2, with strong demand expected to set a new historical high for passenger flow. As of February 12, the overall flow of people increased by 2.3% year-on-year, with aviation leading at a growth rate of 5.4% [5][6]. Passenger Flow Analysis - Passenger flow for various transportation modes showed the following year-on-year growth rates: aviation at 5.4%, rail at 2.6%, and road at 2.2%. The first week of travel was impacted by adverse weather, but recovery was noted in the second week as conditions improved [5][6][8]. Airline Performance - Daily average passenger volume for civil aviation reached approximately 2.36 million, with a year-on-year increase of 5.4%. The growth rate is in line with expectations, although the limited number of additional flights may lead to a slight decrease in growth rates as the holiday approaches [5][8]. Ticket Pricing Trends - The report estimates that domestic load factors increased by about 1 percentage point year-on-year, with ticket prices (excluding fuel surcharges) rising by approximately 1-2%. Despite a 13% year-on-year decrease in jet fuel prices, the net ticket prices are expected to rise, indicating an improvement in airline gross margins [5][8]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates a "super cycle" for the Chinese aviation industry, driven by sustained demand growth and a shift towards market-driven pricing. The upcoming peak season is expected to significantly enhance airline profitability, with the first quarter of 2026 likely to see industry-wide profitability [5][8]. Recommended Stocks - The report recommends accumulating shares of key airlines, including Air China, Juneyao Airlines, China Eastern Airlines, China Southern Airlines, and Spring Airlines, based on their expected performance and market conditions [5][13].