Core Viewpoint - China National Airlines announced an increase in passenger turnover volume and capacity for the year ending December 2025, indicating a positive growth trend in the airline's operations [1] Group 1: Passenger Turnover and Capacity - The company's consolidated passenger turnover volume (measured in revenue passenger kilometers) is expected to increase by 10.0% year-on-year [1] - Passenger capacity input (measured in available seat kilometers) is projected to rise by 4.0% year-on-year [1] - Domestic passenger capacity input is expected to increase by 4.2%, with a corresponding passenger turnover volume increase of 10.6% [1] - International passenger capacity input is anticipated to rise by 4.1%, with a passenger turnover volume increase of 9.1% [1] - Regional passenger capacity input is projected to decrease by 0.7%, while passenger turnover volume is expected to increase by 4.1% [1] Group 2: Average Load Factor - The average passenger load factor is projected to be 82.2%, reflecting an increase of 4.5 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The domestic route load factor is expected to rise by 4.9 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The international route load factor is anticipated to increase by 3.6 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The regional route load factor is projected to increase by 3.4 percentage points year-on-year [1]

Group 1 - The global interest rate cut cycle is entering its second half in 2026, characterized by "internal and external easing resonance" and a shift from "extraordinary to normal" [3][4][5] - The macro liquidity environment remains favorable, with the People's Bank of China expected to maintain a moderately loose monetary policy, focusing on stabilizing economic growth and reasonable price recovery [7][59] - The depreciation of the US dollar is anticipated due to continued interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and worsening fiscal conditions, which will support the appreciation of the RMB and strengthen the A-share market [8][62][63] Group 2 - The long-term low interest rate environment is reshaping the stock-bond allocation logic, with a shift towards equity markets as the attractiveness of fixed income products continues to rise [13][16][44] - The "stock-bond seesaw" effect is expected to further support the A-share market, as funds flow into equities amid a low interest rate environment [14][17][44] - The demand for "deposit migration" from residents is projected to become the largest marginal increment for the market, as a significant amount of fixed-term deposits mature in 2026 [19][20][44] Group 3 - The capital market's status is significantly upgraded in the post-real estate era, becoming a core hub for economic development and resource allocation [22][47] - Policies are being implemented to enhance shareholder returns, with a focus on increasing dividend payouts and improving profit quality, which is becoming a trend in the market [32][33][56] - The overall funding ecology is improving, with a transition from a "financing-oriented" approach to a "balanced investment and financing" model, enhancing market attractiveness and stability [32][47][56]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong aviation stocks are experiencing a continuous decline, with China Southern Airlines dropping over 3%, China Eastern Airlines falling by 2.3%, and Air China decreasing by 1.8% [1] - All three airlines have recorded a four-day losing streak [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Hong Kong airline stocks are experiencing a decline, with China Southern Airlines dropping over 3%, China Eastern Airlines down 2.3%, and Air China falling 1.8%, marking four consecutive days of losses [1] - The winter travel market is expected to see a peak travel window for nearly a month after the New Year holiday, with online travel platforms indicating that current domestic flight and hotel prices are approximately 40% cheaper compared to the upcoming Spring Festival travel period [1] - Geopolitical tensions are causing oil prices to rise, which is a significant headwind for airline stocks and may lead to short-term volatility; however, the long-term stock price trends will be determined by fundamental factors such as industry supply and demand dynamics, oil price and exchange rate trends, and the companies' operational capabilities [1] Group 2 - The latest stock prices and changes for major Chinese airlines are as follows: China Eastern Airlines at 5.110 with a decrease of 2.85%, China Southern Airlines at 5.530 down 2.30%, and Air China at 6.820 down 1.87% [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the transportation industry [2] Core Insights - The shipping sector is experiencing a recovery in oil transportation due to improved demand post-holidays and geopolitical tensions [6][16] - The aviation industry aims to achieve a passenger volume of 810 million in 2026, reflecting a growth rate of 5.2% [23][24] - The express delivery sector is expected to see a gradual recovery in competition and profitability, with a focus on major players like SF Express [20] Shipping - The oil shipping sector is rebounding due to increased cargo availability from the Middle East and geopolitical sanctions affecting supply [6][16] - Container shipping rates are showing slight increases, with strong pricing power among shipowners before long-term contract negotiations [11][12] - Key stocks to watch include COSCO Shipping Energy, China Merchants Energy, and Pacific Shipping [16] Infrastructure - Weekly data indicates a decline in truck traffic and rail freight, with road truck traffic at 46.964 million vehicles, down 14.9% week-on-week [17][18] - Port throughput for the first week of 2026 was 25.4953 million tons, showing a slight decrease but a year-on-year increase of 7.7% in container throughput [18] - Recommended stock for infrastructure investment is Anhui Expressway [18] Express Delivery - In November 2025, express delivery volume reached 18.06 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 5%, while revenue decreased by 3.7% [19][20] - The competitive landscape is expected to stabilize, with major companies like SF Express anticipated to see profit growth in 2026 [20] - Recommended stocks include SF Express, ZTO Express, YTO Express, and Yunda Express [20] Aviation - The aviation sector is entering a critical period with the Spring Festival approaching, and passenger volume is projected to grow by 5.2% in 2026 [23][24] - Recent data shows a year-on-year increase in domestic passenger volume of 1.5% and a decrease in ticket prices [21][24] - Recommended stocks include Air China, China Southern Airlines, and Spring Airlines [24] Logistics - The cross-border air freight price index has decreased by 19.9% week-on-week, indicating a significant drop in logistics costs [25]

Core Viewpoint - China National Airlines has approved the sale of approximately 1.61% of its stake in Cathay Pacific Airways, reflecting financial pressure and a strategy to optimize its balance sheet [1][2] Group 1: Financial Transactions - The company plans to sell 1.08 million shares of Cathay Pacific at a price of HKD 12.22 per share, expecting a pre-tax profit of approximately RMB 182 million from this transaction [1] - In addition to the stake sale, the company announced a plan to raise up to RMB 20 billion through a private placement of A-shares to repay debts and supplement working capital [1] Group 2: Financial Performance - As of September 2025, the company's debt-to-asset ratio reached 87.88%, with total liabilities amounting to RMB 307 billion, one of the highest levels in the aviation industry [1][2] - In Q3 2025, the net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 3.676 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 11.31%, marking the only decline among the three major state-owned airlines [2] - The company's unit revenue per passenger kilometer decreased by 2.6% to RMB 0.61, indicating increased competition and challenges in profitability [2] Group 3: Industry Context - Despite the overall recovery in the aviation industry, where the three major airlines collectively reported a net profit exceeding RMB 6.2 billion in the first three quarters of 2025, China National Airlines' performance stands out negatively [2]

Group 1 - The aviation stocks have collectively declined, with China Eastern Airlines down 3.98% to HKD 5.31, China Southern Airlines down 3.63% to HKD 5.84, Air China down 2.06% to HKD 7.14, and Cathay Pacific down 2.04% to HKD 12.47 [1] - Following the New Year, domestic air ticket prices have significantly dropped, with some tickets available for as low as 10% of their original price, prompting consumers to choose off-peak travel [1] - A third-party ticketing platform reported that flights from Guangzhou to various cities are priced as low as RMB 210 (excluding tax), equivalent to a fare of 1.1% of the original price for a flight from Guangzhou to Shanghai on January 7 [1] Group 2 - Brent crude oil futures surged by 5% at one point, reaching a nearly two-week high, closing at USD 61.99 per barrel, an increase of USD 2.03 or 3.4% from the previous trading day [1] - According to Huachuang Securities, a 10% change in oil prices corresponds to an annual cost impact of approximately RMB 4.3 to 5.1 billion for the three major airlines, while a 1% fluctuation in exchange rates affects them by RMB 130 to 260 million [1]

Group 1 - The aviation stocks collectively declined, with Eastern Airlines down 3.98% at HKD 5.31, Southern Airlines down 3.63% at HKD 5.84, Air China down 2.06% at HKD 7.14, and Cathay Pacific down 2.04% at HKD 12.47 [1] - Following the New Year, domestic air ticket prices have significantly dropped, with some tickets available for as low as 10% of their original price, leading to consumers opting for off-peak travel [1] - A third-party ticketing platform reported that flights from Guangzhou to various cities are priced as low as RMB 210 (excluding tax), equivalent to a 1.1% discount [1] Group 2 - On Thursday, Brent crude oil futures surged by 5%, reaching a nearly two-week high, closing at USD 61.99 per barrel, an increase of USD 2.03 or 3.4% from the previous trading day [1] - According to Huachuang Securities, a 10% change in oil prices corresponds to an annual cost impact of approximately RMB 4.3 to 5.1 billion for the three major airlines, while a 1% fluctuation in exchange rates affects them by RMB 130 to 260 million [1]

综合自：央视新闻、长安街知事 1月9日上午，中国航空集团有限公司召开领导班子（扩大）会议。受中央组织部领导委托，中央组织部有关干 部局负责同志宣布了党中央关于中国航空集团有限公司总经理调整的决定： 曲光吉同志任中国航空集团有限公司董事、总经理、党组副书记，免去其中国南方航空集团有限公司副总经 理、党组成员职务；免去王明远同志的中国航空集团有限公司董事、总经理、党组副书记职务。 公开报道显示，曲光吉出生于1970年2月，2023年7月任南航副总经理。直至此番调整。 官网介绍，中国航空集团有限公司简称"中航集团"，2002年10月11日成立，是特大型国有航空运输集团公司， 也是中国唯一载国旗飞行的航空运输企业，所属二级公司主要有7家，包括中国国际航空股份有限公司等。截 至2025年6月底，中航集团（含控股公司）共运营飞机959架。 未 经 授 权 禁 止 转 载 ， 否 则 将 追 究 相 应 法 律 责 任 。 看券商中国 知天下财经 F 责编：王璐璐 校对：高源 百万用户都在看 刚刚，利好突现！A50，异动！ 中共中央政治局常务委员会召开会议 伊朗，突发！大范围断网！ 大动作！"国家队"，重磅出手！ 特朗普， ...

据中国航空集团有限公司消息，1月9日上午，中国航空集团有限公司召开领导班子（扩大）会议。受中 央组织部领导委托，中央组织部有关干部局负责同志宣布了党中央关于中国航空集团有限公司总经理调 整的决定：曲光吉同志任中国航空集团有限公司董事、总经理、党组副书记，免去其中国南方航空集团 有限公司副总经理、党组成员职务；免去王明远同志的中国航空集团有限公司董事、总经理、党组副书 记职务。相关职务任免，按有关法律和章程的规定办理。 ...