Core Viewpoint - Major Chinese airlines, including Air China, China Eastern Airlines, and China Southern Airlines, have extended the special handling policy for tickets related to Japan routes until October 24, 2026, allowing for free cancellations and changes under specific conditions [1][10]. Group 1: Air China - Applicable conditions for Air China tickets include those purchased or reissued before January 26, 2026, with at least one unused segment involving Japan travel dates from March 29, 2026, to October 24, 2026 [2][7]. - The policy applies to cancellations made before the scheduled departure time of the flight [3][8]. Group 2: China Eastern Airlines - For China Eastern Airlines, the policy applies to tickets with at least one unused segment involving Japan, with travel dates from March 29, 2026, to October 24, 2026, and purchased or reissued before January 26, 2026 [2][7]. - Cancellations must occur before the scheduled departure time to qualify for the policy [3][8]. Group 3: China Southern Airlines - China Southern Airlines tickets must be purchased or reissued before January 26, 2026, with unused segments involving Japan travel dates from March 29, 2026, to October 24, 2026 [4][5]. - The policy allows for changes or cancellations after January 26, 2026, as long as they are made before the scheduled departure time [4][9]. Group 4: Other Airlines - Other airlines, including Shandong Airlines and Xiamen Airlines, have similar conditions for their tickets, requiring purchases or reissues before January 26, 2026, and involving Japan travel dates from March 29, 2026, to October 24, 2026 [6][10]. - The cancellation policy is consistent across these airlines, requiring actions to be taken before the scheduled departure time [3][8].

国航、南航、东航1月26日发布公告称，根据外交部发布的出行提醒，为协助受影响旅客 更好安排出行，针对1月26日12时前已购买、旅行日期为3月2 9日至10月24日的上述航空 公司日本航线进出港航班客票，可办理免费退改手续。 欢迎分享给你的朋友！ 出品 | 中国能源报（c n e n e rg y） 据悉，上述航空公司已多次发布涉日本航线客票特殊处置方案，此前的免费退改政策执行 至3月28日。 来源：新华社 End 编辑丨赵方婷 ...

Group 1 - The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a warning on January 26, advising Chinese citizens to avoid traveling to Japan due to serious safety threats, including rising crime against Chinese nationals and recent earthquakes [1] - Major Chinese airlines, including Air China, China Southern Airlines, and China Eastern Airlines, announced an extension of their free ticket refund and change policy for flights to Japan until October 24, 2025, in response to the Ministry's travel advisory [1][2] - There has been a noticeable decline in Chinese tourists planning to visit Japan, with some travelers canceling their trips and opting for alternative destinations due to the ongoing geopolitical tensions and safety concerns [2] Group 2 - The airlines had previously implemented special handling measures for tickets related to Japan, with the initial refund policy set to expire on March 28, 2025 [2] - The controversy surrounding Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's remarks on Taiwan has drawn significant domestic and international criticism, prompting further advisories from Chinese authorities regarding travel to Japan [2]

据新华社消息，国航、南航、东航1月26日发布公告称，根据外交部发布的出行提醒，为协助受影响旅 客更好安排出行，针对1月26日12时前已购买、旅行日期为3月29日至10月24日的上述航空公司日本航线 进出港航班客票，可办理免费退改手续。 另据第一财经消息，航班管家数据显示，截至1月26日，2026年2月已有49条航线取消全部航班，比一月 进一步增加。2026年1月，中国大陆赴日本航班取消率达47.2%，较2025年12月增长7.8个百分点。 来源：长安街知事微信公众号 近段时间以来，日本社会治安不靖，针对中国公民违法犯罪案件多发。部分地区连续发生地震，造成人 员受伤，日本政府已就后续地震发出警告。中国公民在日本面临严重安全威胁。 农历春节临近，外交部和中国驻日本使领馆提醒中国公民近期避免前往日本，提醒已在日中国公民密切 关注当地治安形势，以及地震和次生灾害预警信息，提高安全防范意识，加强自我保护。如遇紧急情 况，请及时报警并联系驻日使领馆寻求协助。 据悉，上述航空公司已多次发布涉日本航线客票特殊处置方案，此前的免费退改政策执行至3月28日。 同日，外交部领事司发布消息，提醒中国公民春节期间避免前往日本： ...

Core Insights - The cancellation rate of flights from mainland China to Japan has significantly increased, with a reported 47.2% cancellation rate in January 2026, up by 7.8 percentage points from December 2025 [2] - As of January 26, 2026, a total of 49 flight routes have canceled all flights, indicating a worsening trend in flight operations [1] Flight Cancellations - The cancellation rates for specific routes from mainland China to Japan in February 2026 show that several routes have a 100% cancellation rate, including major cities such as Beijing, Chengdu, and Shanghai [3] - Notable routes with 100% cancellations include Beijing Daxing to Kansai (113 flights), Shanghai Pudong to Osaka Kobe (28 flights), and Shenzhen Baoan to New Chitose (13 flights [3] Airline Policies - Multiple airlines, including Air China, China Eastern, and China Southern, have announced extended free ticket change and cancellation policies for flights to Japan until October 24, 2026 [4][10] - Air China allows for free changes for tickets purchased before January 26, 2026, for flights scheduled between March 29 and October 24, 2026, with specific conditions for changes and refunds [4] - China Eastern's policy includes free changes for flights within three days of the original flight date and allows for non-voluntary refunds without fees for unused segments [5][7] Impact on Tourism and Retail - The number of visitors from mainland China to Japan dropped significantly, with December 2025 seeing a 45.3% decrease compared to the previous year, attributed to various factors including safety concerns and negative public sentiment [12][14] - Japan's retail sector is experiencing a downturn, with department store sales declining by 1.5% in 2025, marking the first negative growth in five years, largely due to weak inbound consumption [12][14] Safety Concerns - The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs has issued warnings to citizens regarding travel to Japan, citing safety threats and recent seismic activity, urging travelers to reconsider their plans [15]

Group 1 - Major Chinese airlines including Air China, China Eastern Airlines, and China Southern Airlines announced a policy allowing free cancellations and changes for flights to and from Japan booked before January 26, with travel dates from March 29, 2026, to October 24, 2026 [1] - This policy indicates a contraction in the Japanese travel market for the year, with significant losses of Chinese tourists expected during major holidays such as Spring Festival, Qingming, May Day, summer vacation, Mid-Autumn Festival, and National Day [1] - Data shows that in 2025, the number of Chinese tourists to Japan reached 9.09 million, a 30% increase from 6.98 million in 2024, but there was a notable decline in tourist numbers in the last two months of 2025 [1] Group 2 - Since November 15 of the previous year, Chinese airlines have canceled a significant number of flights to Japan, with a cancellation rate of 47.2% for January 2026 flights compared to December 2025, an increase of 7.8 percentage points [1] - As of January 26, 2026, a total of 49 routes to Japan have had all flights canceled for February [1] - In December 2025, the number of Chinese citizens traveling to Japan was 348,700, a decrease of approximately 40% year-on-year and a 35% month-on-month decline from November 2025 [2]

Core Viewpoint - The announcement by major Chinese airlines (Air China, China Eastern Airlines, and China Southern Airlines) regarding free cancellations and changes for flights to and from Japan from March 29 to October 24, 2026, indicates a significant contraction in the Japan travel market for Chinese tourists in 2026, especially during peak holiday seasons [1]. Summary by Sections Airline Policy Changes - Major Chinese airlines have collectively announced free cancellation and modification policies for flights to Japan, effective for tickets purchased before January 26, 2026, for travel between March 29 and October 24, 2026 [1]. - It is anticipated that other Chinese airlines will follow suit with similar policies [1]. Impact on Travel Market - The Japan travel market is expected to experience a significant decline in Chinese tourists, missing out on key holiday periods such as Spring Festival, Qingming, May Day, summer vacations, Mid-Autumn Festival, and National Day [1]. - Data indicates that in 2025, the number of Chinese tourists to Japan is projected to reach 9.09 million, a 30% increase from 6.98 million in 2024. However, this growth is primarily driven by the first ten months of 2025, with a monthly average of over 800,000 tourists [1]. Flight Cancellations - Since November 15, 2025, Chinese airlines have canceled a significant number of flights to Japan, with a cancellation rate of 47.2% for January 2026, an increase of 7.8 percentage points from December 2025 [1]. - As of January 26, 2026, there are 49 routes with all flights canceled for February 2026 [1]. Specific Route Cancellations - A detailed list shows that multiple routes from various cities in China to Japan have a 100% cancellation rate, including major routes from Beijing, Shanghai, and Chengdu [2][3]. - The cancellation of flights is expected to further impact the number of Chinese tourists visiting Japan in 2026, with December 2025 statistics showing a significant drop in travelers compared to previous years [3].

Geopolitical Tensions and Economic Responses - France is organizing a G-7 Finance call to coordinate international aid for Ukraine's energy infrastructure, following severe damage to Ukraine's power grid from Russian attacks, leaving millions without electricity and heating [3] - The European Union is deploying 447 emergency generators to Ukraine, valued at 3.7 million euros, to support critical services [3] - UNESCO has expressed concern over damage to the Kyiv-Pechersk Lavra and threats to the Saint Sophia Cathedral, both World Heritage sites, due to ongoing conflicts [4] Currency and Commodity Markets - The South African Rand (ZAR) has appreciated past 16/$ for the first time since June 2022, trading at 16.0475 against the dollar, up approximately 0.4% from the previous close, driven by record-high gold prices above $5,000 an ounce and an improved economic outlook [6] - OPEC+ is likely to maintain its supply pause in March amid signs of a surplus in global oil markets, with oil futures declining 15% this year to around $63 a barrel [7] International Trade and Digital Regulation - Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney stated Canada has no intention of pursuing a free trade deal with China, responding to U.S. tariff threats of 100% on Canadian goods [8] - The EU Commission is initiating proceedings against xAI's Grok chatbot under the Digital Services Act due to concerns over inappropriate content generation [10]

Group 1 - Multiple Chinese airlines, including Air China, China Eastern Airlines, China Southern Airlines, and others, announced that tickets issued before January 26 for flights to and from Japan between March 29, 2026, and October 24, 2026, can be changed or refunded for free [1] - In November 2025, the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs and consulates in Japan advised Chinese citizens to avoid traveling to Japan due to safety concerns, leading to special ticket handling for flights during that period [4] - Recent incidents in Japan have raised safety concerns, with reports of violent crimes and attacks against Chinese citizens, prompting the Chinese embassy in Japan to offer assistance and urge local authorities to ensure the safety of Chinese nationals [4][5] Group 2 - The Chinese embassy in Japan has reiterated the importance of safety for Chinese citizens traveling abroad, especially during the upcoming Spring Festival, and has advised them to stay informed about local security conditions [5] - Chinese citizens in Japan are encouraged to enhance their safety awareness and self-protection measures, and to report any discriminatory incidents to the authorities and the embassy [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the aviation and oil shipping sectors [4]. Core Insights - The aviation sector is expected to see record passenger flow during the Spring Festival, with a projected increase of approximately 5.3% year-on-year, reaching 9.5 billion trips in 2026. The report anticipates strong demand during the Spring Festival, with limited additional flights due to strict management by airlines [4]. - In the oil shipping sector, high oil freight rates are expected to persist, with a significant year-on-year increase in tanker profits anticipated for Q1 2026. The report highlights a bullish long-term outlook for oil shipping driven by global oil production growth and an aging fleet [4]. - The express delivery sector is projected to experience a growth rate of 14% in 2025, with a notable recovery in profitability driven by effective measures against excessive competition [4]. Summary by Relevant Sections Aviation - The report forecasts a record high in passenger flow during the Spring Festival, with a year-on-year growth of 5.3% in civil aviation passenger transport [4][5]. - The pre-sale trends for airline tickets are positive, and the overall flight capacity increase during the Spring Festival is expected to be limited, benefiting airline revenue management [4]. - The report suggests a strategic investment in the aviation sector, highlighting companies such as Air China, China Eastern Airlines, and Spring Airlines as potential beneficiaries [4]. Oil Shipping - Oil freight rates are expected to remain high, with a significant increase in tanker profits projected for Q1 2026 due to rising oil production from the Middle East and South America [4]. - The report emphasizes the long-term bullish logic for oil shipping, driven by increased demand and a tightening supply due to an aging fleet [4]. - Recommended companies in the oil shipping sector include COSCO Shipping Energy Transportation and China Merchants Energy Shipping [4]. Express Delivery - The express delivery sector is expected to see a growth rate of 14% in 2025, with a decline in growth rate towards the end of the year [4]. - The report notes that measures against excessive competition have led to a recovery in profitability for leading companies in the sector [4]. - Companies such as SF Express and ZTO Express are highlighted as key players to watch in this sector [4].