Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Add" [2] Core Insights - The report highlights that the coal price adjustment has been ongoing since Q4 2021, with the market now recognizing the prolonged decline. It suggests that the bottom of the price cycle may be near, urging stakeholders to maintain confidence and focus on the industry's fundamental attributes [6][7] - The report emphasizes the challenges faced by the Russian coal industry, including rising production costs, declining investment, and logistical issues due to sanctions, which have led to a decrease in coal exports [4][5] - The global metallurgical coal market is experiencing a shift, with supply tightening due to disruptions in Australian coal supply, leading to increased prices for high-quality coking coal [5][6] Summary by Sections Coal Mining - As of May 23, 2025, Brent crude oil futures settled at $64.78 per barrel, down $0.63 (-0.96%) from the previous week, while WTI crude oil futures settled at $61.53 per barrel, down $0.96 (-1.54%) [1] - The report notes that the price of coal at Newcastle port (6000K) is $218.9 per ton, unchanged from the previous week, while the price at the European ARA port is $91 per ton, also unchanged [1][38] Production and Demand - Russia's coal production remains around 440 million tons annually, with coking coal production at approximately 110 million tons. Domestic demand for coal in Russia is projected to grow by 13.13% year-on-year in 2024, reaching 205 million tons [4] - The report indicates that the share of electricity coal demand in Russia is about 46% [4] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several coal companies for investment, including China Shenhua (H+A), China Coal Energy (H+A), and others, highlighting their performance and potential for recovery [6][7] - The report suggests that the domestic coal companies are facing increasing losses, with over 54.8% of coal enterprises reporting losses as of March 2025, indicating a higher likelihood of production cuts [6][7] Market Outlook - The report anticipates that by 2050, global metallurgical coal demand will decrease from 1.099 billion tons in 2024 to 885 million tons, with significant shifts in demand from China to India [5] - It is projected that the price of high-quality Australian coking coal will gradually rise due to long-term structural shortages [5]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Increase" [6] Core Viewpoints - The coal mining industry is expected to see improved demand as effective supply decreases, presenting a good investment opportunity since the beginning of the year [1] - In April 2025, the raw coal production decreased by 50 million tons month-on-month, with an annual growth rate of 3.8% [1][12] - The forecast for 2025 indicates a net increase in production of only 55-60 million tons, with a year-on-year growth rate of approximately 1.2-1.3%, continuing to slow down compared to 2024 [1][12] Summary by Sections Production - In April 2025, the raw coal production was 390 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 3.8% [1][12] - The average daily production in April was 12.98 million tons [1][12] Import - In April 2025, coal imports were 37.83 million tons, a decrease of 16.41% year-on-year [2][16] - For the first four months of 2025, total coal imports were 152.67 million tons, down 5.3% year-on-year [2][16] - The forecast for 2025 suggests that thermal coal imports may stabilize or decline slightly, with an expected total of around 385 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.9% [2][16] Demand - In April 2025, the industrial power generation was 711.1 billion kWh, with a year-on-year growth of 0.9% [3][19] - The industrial thermal power generation decreased by 2.3% year-on-year, remaining stable compared to March [3][19] - The growth rates for wind and solar power generation increased to 12.7% and 16.7% respectively in April [3][19] Investment Recommendations - Key recommendations include major coal enterprises such as China Shenhua (H+A), China Coal Energy (H+A), and turnaround opportunities like China Qinfa [5][37] - Other recommended stocks include new energy companies with strong performance such as Xinjie Energy, Shaanxi Coal, and Electric Power Energy [5][37] - Companies with potential for future growth include Huayang Co. and Gansu Energy [5][37]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Maintain Buy" [6] Core Viewpoints - The coal mining industry is expected to see improved demand and effective supply reduction, presenting a good investment opportunity since the beginning of the year [1] - In April 2025, the raw coal production decreased by 50 million tons month-on-month, with a total output of 390 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.8% [12][13] - The report anticipates a net increase in coal production of only 55 to 60 million tons in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of approximately 1.2% to 1.3%, indicating a continued slowdown compared to 2024 [1][12] Production Summary - In April 2025, the raw coal production was 390 million tons, with a daily average of 12.98 million tons [12][13] - The cumulative raw coal production from January to April 2025 reached 1.58 billion tons, showing a year-on-year increase of 6.6% [12] Import Summary - In April 2025, coal imports were 37.83 million tons, a decrease of 16.41% year-on-year and a 2.34% decrease month-on-month [2][16] - From January to April 2025, total coal imports amounted to 152.67 million tons, down 5.3% year-on-year [16] - The report forecasts that the total annual coal imports for 2025 may be around 385 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 4.9% [2][16] Demand Summary - In April 2025, the industrial power generation was 711.1 billion kWh, with a year-on-year growth of 0.9% [3][19] - The industrial thermal power generation saw a year-on-year decline of 2.3%, remaining consistent with the previous month [3][19] - Renewable energy sources such as wind and solar power showed significant growth, with wind power increasing by 12.7% and solar power by 16.7% year-on-year [3][19][32] Investment Recommendations - Key recommended stocks include China Shenhua (H+A), China Coal Energy (H+A), and China Qinfa, among others [5][37] - The report emphasizes the importance of performance in stock selection, highlighting companies like Xinjie Energy and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry [5][37]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal mining industry [4][7]. Core Insights - The coal price adjustment has been ongoing for nearly four years since the historical peak in Q4 2021, with prices generally returning to levels before the recent uptrend. The market is now aware of the price decline, indicating that the bottom may be near. It is essential to understand the industry's fundamental attributes and maintain confidence and determination [3]. - As of April 2025, Australian coal exports totaled 104 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 8.1%. In April alone, exports were 26.53 million tons, down 3.7% year-on-year and 12.3% month-on-month [2][6]. - Domestic coal companies are increasingly facing losses, with over half (54.8%) reporting losses as of March 2025. This trend may lead to both passive and active production cuts as prices continue to decline [3]. Summary by Sections Coal Mining Exports - In the first four months of 2025, Australian coal exports decreased by 8.1% year-on-year, totaling 104 million tons. April's exports were 26.53 million tons, reflecting a 3.7% year-on-year decline and a 12.3% month-on-month decline [2][6]. Price Trends - As of May 16, 2025, coal prices showed mixed trends: Newcastle port coal (6000K) was priced at $99.0 per ton (up 0.1), while European ARA port coal was at $94.5 per ton (down 2.6) [35]. The IPE South African Richards Bay coal futures settled at $87.60 per ton (down 1.4) [35]. Recommended Stocks - The report recommends several coal companies, including: - China Shenhua (601088.SH) - Buy - Shaanxi Coal (601225.SH) - Buy - China Qinfa (00866.HK) - Buy - China Coal Energy (601898.SH) - Buy - Electric Power Energy (002128.SZ) - Buy - Jinneng Holding (601001.SH) - Buy - Yancoal (600188.SH) - Buy - New Hope Energy (601918.SH) - Buy [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal mining industry [4]. Core Viewpoints - The current coal price adjustment has been ongoing for nearly four years since the historical peak in Q4 2021, with prices generally returning to pre-increase levels. The market is well aware of the price decline, indicating that the bottom may be near. It is essential to understand the industry's fundamental attributes and maintain confidence and determination [3]. - As of April 2025, Australian coal exports totaled 104 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 8.1%. The decline in exports is attributed to the shutdown of Australian coking coal production, which has led to rising prices [2][6]. - Domestic coal companies are increasingly facing losses, with over half (54.8%) reporting losses as of March 2025. This trend may lead to both passive and active production cuts as prices continue to decline [3]. Summary by Sections Coal Mining Exports - In the first four months of 2025, Australian coal exports decreased by 8.1% year-on-year, totaling 104 million tons. In April alone, exports were 26.53 million tons, down 3.7% year-on-year and 12.3% month-on-month [2]. Price Trends - As of May 16, 2025, coal prices showed mixed trends: Newcastle coal (6000K) was priced at $99.0 per ton (up 0.1%), while European ARA coal was at $94.5 per ton (down 2.6%) [3][35]. The report indicates that the coal price adjustment is nearing its end, with potential for recovery as production cuts may occur due to high overseas mining costs [3]. Recommended Stocks - The report recommends several coal companies, including China Shenhua (601088.SH), Shaanxi Coal (601225.SH), and China Qinfa (00866.HK), all rated as "Buy." Other recommended stocks include China Coal Energy (601898.SH) and Xinjie Energy (601918.SH) [7]. Market Outlook - The report suggests that the coal industry is at a critical stage of price exploration, with the potential for a rebound as the market adjusts to production cuts and changing demand dynamics [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal mining industry [4]. Core Viewpoints - The current phase of coal price adjustment is nearing its end, with the market having a clear understanding of the price decline. The industry is at a critical stage of price bottoming, and confidence should be maintained [3]. - The global seaborne coal trade volume decreased by 6.7% year-on-year in Q1 2025, with significant declines in coal exports from major countries [2][6]. - Domestic coal companies are facing increasing losses, with over half (54.8%) reporting losses as of March 2025, leading to a higher probability of production cuts [6]. Summary by Sections Coal Mining Trade - In Q1 2025, the international seaborne coal trade volume was 307 million tons, down 6.7% year-on-year [2]. - Major exporting countries saw declines: Indonesia's exports fell by 10.7% to 114.5 million tons, Australia by 9.4% to 76.6 million tons, and the U.S. by 4.9% to 20.8 million tons [6]. Price Trends - As of May 9, 2025, coal prices showed slight increases: European ARA port coal at $97.1/ton (+1.9%), Newcastle port coal at $98.9/ton (+0.9%), while South African Richards Bay coal futures fell slightly to $89.0/ton (-0.1%) [1][37]. - The report indicates that coal prices are stabilizing after a prolonged decline since Q4 2021 [3]. Recommendations - The report recommends increasing positions in key coal companies such as China Shenhua, China Coal Energy, and others, highlighting their potential for recovery and performance [6][7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal mining industry [4] Core Viewpoints - The expectation of increased steel import tariffs in India is likely to boost demand for South African thermal coal, as the tariffs aim to protect domestic steel producers from low-priced imports [2] - The report highlights potential investment opportunities in companies such as Shenhua Energy, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and others, suggesting that these companies may benefit from the current market dynamics [3][6] Summary by Sections Coal Mining - As of April 30, 2025, coal prices showed mixed trends: Newcastle coal (6000K) increased by $3.8/ton (+4.1%) to $97.5/ton, while European ARA coal decreased by $1.0/ton (-1.1%) to $93.8/ton [1][37] - South African coal exports are expected to rebound to over 6 million tons due to increased demand from the sponge iron industry [7] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends buying shares in companies such as Shaanxi Coal, China Shenhua, and others, with projected earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios indicating potential growth [6] - Specific companies highlighted for their strong performance include China Coal Energy and Jinneng Holding, with EPS forecasts for 2024 ranging from 1.21 to 2.95 [6] Market Trends - The report notes a significant drop in energy prices, with Brent crude oil down by $3.00/barrel (-4.54%) and WTI down by $4.06/barrel (-6.52%) as of the latest review [1][14] - The overall coal market is experiencing fluctuations, with the potential for increased operational costs due to transportation challenges in South Africa [7]

Financial Performance - For the year ended December 31, 2024, the Group reported a turnover of RMB 2,600,933, a decrease of 24.6% compared to RMB 3,449,182 in 2023[15]. - The gross profit for 2024 was RMB 514,543, down 41.5% from RMB 878,020 in 2023[15]. - Operating profit increased to RMB 750,418 in 2024, compared to RMB 523,859 in 2023, marking a growth of 43.3%[15]. - The profit for the year attributable to equity shareholders was RMB 501,944, significantly up from RMB 200,346 in 2023, representing a 150.5% increase[15]. - The coal business revenue for the year ended 31 December 2024 was RMB2,600,933,000, a decrease of 24.6% compared to RMB3,449,182,000 in 2023[60]. - The average coal selling price decreased to RMB504 per tonne in 2024 from RMB665 per tonne in 2023, representing a decline of approximately 24.2%[67]. - The cost of sales in 2024 was RMB2,086,400,000, an 18.9% decrease from RMB2,571,200,000 in 2023[68]. - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 19.8%, down from 25.5% in 2023, primarily due to the decrease in average selling price of thermal coal[75]. - Other income, gains, and losses for 2024 amounted to a net gain of RMB547.3 million, a significant increase from a net gain of RMB2.0 million in 2023[76]. - Net profit margin improved significantly to 21.4% in 2024 from 5.6% in 2023, influenced by an increase in net gain on substantial/non-substantial modification of borrowings[160]. Assets and Liabilities - Total assets as of December 31, 2024, reached RMB 8,629,329, an increase of 9.8% from RMB 7,857,573 in 2023[17]. - Total liabilities decreased to RMB 5,143,084 in 2024, down 31.8% from RMB 7,538,655 in 2023[17]. - Net current liabilities decreased to RMB2,094.9 million in 2024 from RMB3,324.8 million in 2023, with the current ratio improving to 0.5 from 0.36[86]. - The gearing ratio improved to 59.6% in 2024 from 95.9% in 2023, reflecting the repayment of loans during the year[102]. - The Group's debt-to-asset ratio improved to 59.6% as of December 31, 2024, down from 95.9% in the previous year, primarily due to loan repayments[105]. - As of December 31, 2024, the Group's total banking and other borrowings amounted to RMB1,184.5 million, a decrease of 66.8% from RMB3,566.0 million as of December 31, 2023[107]. Coal Production and Operations - The coal handling and trading volume for 2024 was 5,161,000 tonnes, slightly down from 5,187,000 tonnes in 2023[15]. - Total raw coal production for 2024 reached 9,294,000 tonnes, an increase of 21.4% from 7,651,000 tonnes in 2023[58]. - Commercial coal production volume for 2024 was 4,680,000 tonnes, slightly down from 4,882,000 tonnes in 2023[58]. - As of December 31, 2024, total coal reserves were 342.14 million tonnes, down from 348.11 million tonnes as of January 1, 2024[56]. - Proven reserves as of December 31, 2024, were 9.25 million tonnes, while probable reserves were 332.89 million tonnes[56]. - The total coal reserve depleted from mining operations in 2024 was 9.29 million tonnes[56]. - The total coal reserves of the SDE Coal Mine reached 305,380,000 tonnes, significantly higher than the domestic coal mines' total reserves of 36,760,000 tonnes, indicating substantial development potential[128]. Strategic Initiatives and Acquisitions - The Group successfully realized RMB 2.95 billion in cash from the disposal of a 30% indirect equity interest in the SDE Coal Project in Indonesia[20]. - The Group acquired 70% equity interests in several high-quality coal mines in Indonesia, expanding its overseas resource footprint and enhancing its competitive advantage in the Southeast Asian market[24]. - The Group successfully acquired three mining business licenses in June 2024, increasing its total holdings to nine coal mines, with five located in China and four in Indonesia[35]. - The Group successfully acquired a 70% equity interest in PT Suprema Marulabo Energi, PT Inisiasi Merdeka Jaya, and PT Venerasi Sejahtera Energi in 2024[115]. - The Group plans to continue seeking high-quality coal mines and mining rights in Indonesia at reasonable prices to expand resource reserves and maintain rapid development over the next decade[130]. Environmental and Social Responsibility - The Group aims to remove the stigma of environmental destruction associated with coal mining through innovative practices and technologies[44]. - The Group is committed to enhancing quality and efficiency through the development of new technologies such as green intelligent mining and clean low-carbon utilization[41]. - The Group aims to minimize environmental impact by improving resource efficiency and reducing pollutant emissions[166]. - The Group is committed to responsible procurement and ensuring suppliers meet sustainability standards[168]. - The Environmental, Social and Governance Committee was established to monitor sustainability performance and stakeholder engagement[176]. Human Resources and Corporate Governance - The Group employed 3,612 employees as of December 31, 2024, and has implemented a performance-based reward system[121]. - The Group was awarded the "2024 Outstanding Human Resources Research Achievement," reflecting its commitment to talent development and corporate culture[47]. - The Directors will retire by rotation at the upcoming annual general meeting, with eligibility for re-election[197]. - The board of directors includes Mr. Xu Da (Chairman), Mr. Bai Tao (CEO), Mr. Zhai Yifeng, and Ms. Deng Bingjing (appointed on April 19, 2024)[198]. Dividends and Shareholder Value - A final dividend of HKD0.02 per ordinary share has been recommended for the year ended December 31, 2024, compared to no dividend in 2023[120]. - The Group has recommended a final dividend of HKD0.02 per share for the year ended December 31, 2024, compared to nil in 2023[184]. - As of 31 December 2024, the total reserves available for distribution amount to approximately RMB1,150,969,000, a significant increase from nil in 2023[186]. - The retained earnings as of December 31, 2024 stand at RMB173,366,000, recovering from accumulated losses of RMB1,005,484,000 in 2023[188].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the coal mining industry [3][4]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a significant decline in Russian coal exports, with a year-on-year decrease of 2.9% in Q1 2025, and notes that the proportion of loss-making coal companies in the Kuzbass region has risen to 57% [2][3]. - Global energy prices have shown a downward trend, with Brent crude oil prices at $66.87 per barrel, down 1.60% from the previous week, and coal prices at European ARA ports dropping to $92.3 per ton, a decrease of 7.6% [1][3]. - The report emphasizes potential investment opportunities in companies such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and others, particularly those involved in share buybacks, which are seen as a positive signal for the industry [3][6]. Summary by Sections Coal Mining - Russian coal exports via sea decreased by 2.9% in Q1 2025, with exports to China down by 21.5%, accounting for 30% of total sea exports [5][6]. - The Kuzbass region's coal mining output fell to 51 million tons in Q1 2025, a 3.6% decline year-on-year [5][6]. - The report predicts that the total losses in the Russian coal industry could exceed $3.1 billion in 2025, doubling from $1.4 billion in 2024 [5][6]. Investment Opportunities - Recommended stocks for investment include: - Shaanxi Coal (601225.SH) - Buy rating, EPS forecast for 2024A at 2.31 [6]. - China Shenhua (601088.SH) - Buy rating, EPS forecast for 2024A at 2.95 [6]. - Other notable mentions include Huaiyin Mining, Jinneng Holding, and Yanzhou Coal Mining [3][6]. Price Trends - Coal prices have shown a consistent decline, with Newcastle coal at $93.8 per ton, down 1.4% from the previous week, and South African Richards Bay coal at $88.1 per ton, down 0.9% [1][3][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the coal mining sector, including China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and others [3][6]. Core Insights - Indonesia's new regulations have increased the coal export mining rights tax rate by 1%, which is expected to impact miners' profitability. The tax rate will vary based on calorific value and mining method, with higher rates applicable when the coal reference price exceeds $90 per ton [2][3]. - The report highlights that Indonesia's non-tax state revenue from the mining and coal sector is projected to reach 140.5 trillion Indonesian Rupiah (approximately $8.33 billion) in 2024, accounting for 52.1% of the country's non-tax revenue [2]. - The report suggests that some miners may shift towards domestic supply to mitigate tax pressure, although the domestic market's absorption capacity remains uncertain, potentially leading to production cuts and capacity constraints [2]. Summary by Sections Coal Mining - The report notes fluctuations in global energy prices, with Brent crude oil futures rising by 7.31% to $67.96 per barrel and WTI crude oil futures increasing by 7.67% to $64.68 per barrel [1]. - Coal prices showed mixed trends, with Newcastle coal (6000K) FOB price at $95.1 per ton (up 0.2%), while European ARA coal price decreased by 0.7% to $99.9 per ton [1][34]. Key Companies - The report identifies key investment targets in the coal sector, including China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and others, with projected earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios indicating strong growth potential [6]. - Specific companies are highlighted for their stock repurchase plans, indicating confidence in their future performance [3]. Market Trends - The report provides a graphical representation of coal mining sector trends, indicating a potential recovery in the market after recent declines [4]. - It emphasizes the importance of monitoring coal prices and regulatory changes in Indonesia, which could significantly impact the sector's dynamics [2][3].