Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company has shown stable performance with a significant increase in cash flow quarter-on-quarter [1] - The report highlights a decrease in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, with a year-on-year decline of 4.1% in revenue and 12.6% in net profit [6] - The company is expected to maintain a good dividend payout ratio due to stable cash flow and capital expenditure [6] Financial Data and Earnings Forecast - Total revenue for 2025 is estimated at 421.87 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 0.3% [5] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 129.79 billion for 2025, reflecting a decline of 5.9% year-on-year [5] - Earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is expected to be 2.73 yuan, with a projected return on equity (ROE) of 15.9% [5] - The company’s gross margin is forecasted to be 50.6% for 2025, down from 52.2% in 2024 [5] - The company’s operating cash flow for the first three quarters of 2025 was 141.7 billion, with a year-on-year decrease of 6% [6] Operational Performance - The company achieved a net oil and gas production of 578 million barrels of oil equivalent in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 6.7% [6] - The average realized oil price in Q3 2025 was 66.62 USD per barrel, with a narrowing discount compared to Brent crude [6] - The company’s oil and gas production is expected to continue increasing, driven by new projects and improved operational efficiency [6]

Core Insights - On October 31, 2025, Alibaba-W (09988), SMIC (00981), and Tencent Holdings (00700) ranked as the top three companies by trading volume in the southbound trading of the Stock Connect, with trading volumes of 58.52 billion, 43.31 billion, and 30.98 billion respectively [1][2] - In the southbound trading of the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect, Alibaba-W (09988), SMIC (00981), and Tencent Holdings (00700) also held the top three positions, with trading volumes of 43.07 billion, 28.25 billion, and 26.32 billion respectively [1][2] Southbound Trading Highlights - **Top Active Companies in Southbound Trading (Hong Kong Stock Connect)** - Alibaba-W (09988): Trading amount of 58.52 billion, net buy of -4.81 billion [2] - SMIC (00981): Trading amount of 43.31 billion, net buy of -78.06 million [2] - Tencent Holdings (00700): Trading amount of 30.98 billion, net buy of -1.72 billion [2] - Xiaomi Group-W (01810): Trading amount of 19.39 billion, net buy of +5.56 billion [2] - Huahong Semiconductor (01347): Trading amount of 18.61 billion, net buy of -1.67 billion [2] - **Top Active Companies in Southbound Trading (Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect)** - Alibaba-W (09988): Trading amount of 43.07 billion, net buy of +1.15 billion [2] - SMIC (00981): Trading amount of 28.25 billion, net buy of -6.34 billion [2] - Tencent Holdings (00700): Trading amount of 26.32 billion, net buy of -10.47 billion [2] - Huahong Semiconductor (01347): Trading amount of 11.90 billion, net buy of -3.07 billion [2] - Xiaomi Group-W (01810): Trading amount of 11.13 billion, net buy of +904.39 million [2]

Core Insights - The Hong Kong stock market saw a net inflow of 87.19 billion HKD from northbound trading on October 31, with 57.72 billion HKD from the Shanghai Stock Connect and 29.47 billion HKD from the Shenzhen Stock Connect [1] Group 1: Net Inflows and Outflows - The most bought stocks included Xiaomi Group-W (01810), Meituan-W (03690), and Sanofi Pharmaceutical (01530) [1] - The most sold stocks included Tencent (00700), SMIC (00981), and Hua Hong Semiconductor (01347) [1] Group 2: Stock Performance Details - Xiaomi Group-W (01810) had a net inflow of 6.46 billion HKD, supported by optimistic forecasts for its smartphone and electric vehicle businesses [5] - Meituan-W (03690) received a net inflow of 4.64 billion HKD, with news of its international food delivery brand Keeta launching operations in Brazil [5] - Sanofi Pharmaceutical (01530) saw a net inflow of 754.6 million HKD, following the registration of a new cancer treatment in clinical trials [5] Group 3: Notable Sell-offs - Tencent (00700) experienced a net outflow of 12.19 billion HKD, amid increased short-selling activities in the market [7] - SMIC (00981) faced a net outflow of 7.11 billion HKD, as the semiconductor sector reacted to potential changes in AI chip export policies [8] - Hua Hong Semiconductor (01347) had a net outflow of 4.73 billion HKD, reflecting broader trends in the chip industry [8]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a decline in October, with all three major indices ending the month lower after a brief rise at the beginning. The Hang Seng Index fell by 3.53%, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index dropped by 4.05%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index saw the largest decline at 8.62. The Hang Seng Index fell below the 26,000-point mark, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell below 6,000 points [1]. Sector Performance - The coal, port transportation, oil, and airline sectors showed positive performance, with China Eastern Airlines rising by 19.8%, China Southern Airlines increasing by 12.5%, and China Petroleum gaining over 13%. China National Offshore Oil Corporation rose nearly 4%. In the coal sector, China Coal Energy surged nearly 18%, while China Shenhua Energy increased by 12% and Shougang Resources rose by 9.7% [1]. - Conversely, the Apple concept stocks, biopharmaceuticals, domestic real estate, automotive, and semiconductor sectors experienced significant declines. Highway Electronics led the Apple concept sector with a drop of 20.7%, followed by Sunny Optical with a decline of 16.8% and Q Technology down by 15.8%. In the automotive sector, Li Auto fell by 21.35%, Leap Motor dropped by 12.13%, and BYD shares decreased by 8.7%. Although SMIC reached a new high during the month, it still fell by 5.7% [1]. Large Technology Stocks - Among large technology stocks, Xiaomi saw a significant drop of 20%, Kuaishou fell by 14.48%, Baidu decreased by 11.71%, NetEase dropped by 8.36%, JD.com fell by 7.87%, Alibaba decreased by 6.72%, Tencent dropped by 5.13%, and Meituan fell by 2.39% [1].

Group 1 - Minsheng Securities issued a report on October 31, giving China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) a "recommended" rating [1] - The report highlights that exchange rate losses impacted period expenses, leading to a quarter-on-quarter profit decline in Q3 2025 [1] - Oil and gas production showed steady year-on-year growth, indicating operational stability [1] - Oil prices have rebounded quarter-on-quarter, and cost control measures are reported to be effective [1] - The company has continued to focus on increasing reserves and production, with four new projects launched in Q3 [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for both A and H shares of the company, with target prices set at RMB 33.41 and HKD 27.04 respectively [2][6][8]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of RMB 312.5 billion for the first three quarters, a year-on-year decrease of 4%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 102 billion, down 13% year-on-year [2]. - The third quarter saw a revenue of RMB 104.9 billion, with a quarter-on-quarter growth of 6% and a year-on-year decline of 4% [2]. - The decline in net profit was attributed to the depreciation of the US dollar against the RMB and lower-than-expected oil production due to typhoons and asset sales in the Gulf of Mexico [2]. - The company has shown resilience against oil price fluctuations, with effective cost reduction and quality improvement measures [2]. Revenue and Production - The company's oil and gas net production reached 578.3 million barrels of oil equivalent, a year-on-year increase of 6.7%, with oil liquid and gas production growing by 5.4% and 11.6% respectively [3]. - Brent crude oil prices averaged USD 68.2 per barrel in Q3, down 13.4% year-on-year, while the company's realized oil price was USD 66.2 per barrel, a decrease of 12.8% [3]. - The overall gross margin decreased by 2.2 percentage points year-on-year to 52.2%, with Q3 gross margin at 49.8% [3]. Market Conditions - Oil prices have entered a downward trend due to the end of the peak season and increased supply from OPEC+, with WTI and Brent crude prices reported at USD 60.48 and USD 64.92 per barrel respectively [4]. - The report predicts that global oil supply will face excess pressure, particularly from the Middle East, starting in Q4 2025 [4]. Capital Expenditure and Projects - The company completed capital expenditures of RMB 86 billion in the first three quarters, a decrease of 10% year-on-year, with significant progress in key projects [5]. - New discoveries and projects have been successfully evaluated and put into production, contributing to future growth [5]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The net profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted downwards to RMB 128 billion, RMB 122.9 billion, and RMB 129.6 billion respectively, reflecting a decrease of 3.3%, 2.6%, and 1.9% from previous estimates [6]. - The report assigns a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.9x for 2026, with target prices reflecting the company's high oil production ratio and sensitivity to oil price changes [6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [8]. Core Views - The company's Q3 2025 net profit was 32.4 billion, which met expectations, while revenue reached 104.9 billion, showing a year-on-year increase of 5.7%. However, net profit decreased by 12.16% year-on-year [1]. - The total oil and gas production in Q3 2025 was 194 million barrels of oil equivalent (mmboe), reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.9%, with oil and gas production increasing by 7.1% and 10.4% respectively [2]. - The cost per barrel of oil for Q1-Q3 2025 was $27.35, a decrease of $0.79 year-on-year, but there was a slight increase of $1.31 per barrel in Q3 due to production declines caused by typhoons [3]. - The realized oil price in Q3 2025 was $66.62 per barrel, with a discount of $1.6 compared to Brent, showing a year-on-year narrowing of the discount but a slight widening compared to the previous quarter. The realized natural gas price remained stable at 1.96 yuan per cubic meter [4]. - Operating cash flow for Q1-Q3 2025 was 171.7 billion, down 6% year-on-year, while capital expenditure was 86 billion, down 10% year-on-year, with a full-year capital expenditure plan of 125-135 billion [5]. Financial Data Summary - The company's projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 128.3 billion, 133.1 billion, and 135.8 billion respectively, corresponding to a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 10 and 6.9 times based on the stock price as of October 30, 2025. The dividend yield is projected at 4.5% and 6.6% for 2025 [5]. - The financial data for the years 2023 to 2027 shows a projected revenue of 404.9 billion in 2025, with a growth rate of -3.72%. The EBITDA for 2025 is estimated at 278.6 billion, with a net profit of 128.3 billion [6]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected to be 2.70 yuan, with a P/E ratio of 10.01 and a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 2.73 [6].

证券研究报告 公司研究 [Table_ReportType] 点评报告 [Table_StockAndRank] 中国海油（600938.SH） 中国海洋石油（0883.HK） 投资评级 买入 上次评级 买入 [Table_Author] 刘红光 石化行业联席首席分析师 执业编号：S1500525060002 邮箱：liuhongguang@cindasc.com 胡晓艺 石化行业分析师 执业编号：S1500524070003 邮箱：huxiaoyi@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金 隅大厦B座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] Q3 受台风影响利润环比下滑，业绩符合预期 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 10 月 31 日 [Table_S 事件：2025 ummar年y]10 月 30 日晚，中国海油发布 2025 年三季度报告。2025 年 前三季度，公司实现营收 3125.03 亿元，同比-4.15%；实现归母净利润 1019.71 亿元，同比-12.59%；扣非后归母净 ...

Core Viewpoint - UBS report indicates that CNOOC's net profit for the first three quarters decreased by 12.6% to 102 billion RMB, with the third quarter net profit of 32.4 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter decline of 12.2% and 1.6% respectively, aligning with the bank's expectations [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - CNOOC's oil and gas production increased by 6.7% year-on-year to 578.3 million barrels of oil equivalent [1] - Natural gas production rose by 11.6% year-on-year [1] - The cost per barrel remained stable at 27.35 USD [1] Group 2: Price Trends - Oil prices for the first three quarters and the third quarter fell by 13.6% and 12.8% year-on-year, with the decline slightly less than that of Brent crude oil prices [1] - Natural gas prices remained stable, with increases of 1% and 0.6% year-on-year for the first three quarters and the third quarter respectively [1] Group 3: Analyst Rating - UBS maintains a "Buy" rating and a target price of 26.5 HKD for CNOOC [1]

Core Viewpoint - China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) reported a net profit of 32.4 billion RMB for Q3, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 12% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 2%, which still exceeded the expectations of the brokerage by 6% due to higher-than-expected trading profits [1] Financial Performance - Q3 net profit: 32.4 billion RMB, down 12% year-on-year and down 2% quarter-on-quarter [1] - Profit decline attributed to slight quarterly production decrease and rising unit costs [1] Future Outlook - Expected Q4 profit to decline by 21% quarter-on-quarter due to anticipated oil price drop and increased costs [1] - 2025 profit forecast raised by 1% [1] Investment Rating - Brokerage maintains a "Buy" rating and raises the target price for H-shares from 24.87 HKD to 25.06 HKD [1]