Core Viewpoint - The China Securities Hong Kong 300 Raw Materials Index has shown significant growth, with a 66.50% increase year-to-date, indicating strong performance in the raw materials sector [1]. Group 1: Index Performance - The China Securities Hong Kong 300 Raw Materials Index reported a value of 2721.61 points [1]. - The index has increased by 16.75% over the past month and 41.99% over the last three months [1]. Group 2: Index Composition - The top ten holdings in the index include Zijin Mining (25.69%), China Hongqiao (11.83%), and Luoyang Molybdenum (7.66%) [1]. - The index is composed entirely of stocks listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with a 100% representation [1]. Group 3: Sector Breakdown - The index's sample composition shows that non-ferrous metals account for 79.48%, non-metallic materials for 14.17%, chemicals for 4.69%, and paper and packaging for 1.66% [2]. - The index samples are adjusted biannually, with changes implemented on the next trading day following the second Friday of June and December [2].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained rating) [5] Core Insights - The necessity for "anti-involution" in the cement industry remains, with a competitive landscape characterized by high concentration and state-owned enterprise dominance [1][12] - The cement industry is experiencing a significant oversupply, with a projected capacity utilization rate of only 53% in 2024, indicating a need for supply-side reforms to reduce actual capacity [3][22] - Short-term measures such as peak-shifting production will continue to support the industry, while medium-term strategies will focus on administrative measures to limit overproduction [4][30] Summary by Sections Supply Structure - The cement industry is primarily led by state-owned enterprises, with a concentration ratio (CR10) of 57% and an expected state-owned enterprise capacity share of around 45% in 2024 [1][12] - The top ten cement companies include four state-owned enterprises, which collectively hold about 71% of the capacity, facilitating coordinated efforts to stabilize prices and enhance efficiency [12][1] Industry Profitability - The industry is projected to achieve a total profit of 260 billion yuan in 2024, with a profit margin of approximately 4.1%, although this represents an 86% decline from the peak levels seen in previous years [16][20] - The worst period in early 2024 saw over 55% of companies reporting losses, but a recovery is anticipated in the fourth quarter, with profits expected to reach 150-160 billion yuan in the first half of 2025 [20][16] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The total cement supply has peaked at around 1.81 billion tons, but demand continues to decline, leading to a significant oversupply issue [22][3] - The expected demand bottom is estimated to be between 1.2 to 1.5 billion tons, indicating a potential decline of 18% to 34% from 2024 levels [22][3] Review of Previous Supply-Side Reforms - Previous reforms included a ban on new capacity and the promotion of peak-shifting production, which successfully reduced new clinker capacity additions from a billion-ton level to a few million tons [2][26] - The industry's profit recovery from 518 billion yuan in 2016 to a historical high of 1867 billion yuan in 2019 was largely due to these reforms [2][29] Future Anti-Involution Strategies - The future governance of "anti-involution" will involve a combination of market, administrative, and legal measures, with a strong emphasis on reducing excess capacity through administrative controls [4][30] - The carbon trading policy expected to be implemented by 2027 will further pressure high-emission capacities to exit the market, promoting a shift towards more efficient production methods [33][35]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the building materials industry, particularly in AI materials and traditional building materials entering a price increase season [1][3]. Core Insights - The AI materials market continues to expand, driven by the anticipation of mass production in the AI industry chain, which is expected to boost demand for related products [2][3]. - The construction materials sector is showing signs of recovery, with consumption fundamentals expected to improve in the second half of 2025 [10][24]. - The cement industry is entering a peak season, with price increases already observed in the Yangtze River Delta region [30][33]. Summary by Sections AI Materials - The M9 production for switches is expected to ramp up ahead of schedule, with core Q fabric suppliers also increasing production capacity [2]. - The demand for low dielectric fabrics is anticipated to rise alongside the production of GB200 and GB300 cabinets [2][3]. - The overall production ramp-up is seen as a key support for market trends [2]. Cement Industry - The opening of major infrastructure projects in Xinjiang and Tibet is expected to enhance market confidence and drive demand for cement [8][30]. - The cement market has seen a slight price increase, with certain regions experiencing price hikes of 10-30 RMB per ton [33][34]. - The report highlights a potential supply reduction in the North China region due to planned production cuts for air quality improvement [32][33]. Building Materials - The report notes a significant policy shift in Beijing aimed at stimulating the real estate market, which is expected to positively impact consumption building materials [10][24]. - Companies in the consumption building materials sector are beginning to stabilize their earnings, with expectations of improved profitability in the coming quarters [25][26]. - The report emphasizes the importance of cost management and pricing strategies among leading companies in the sector [25][26]. Glass Industry - The float glass market is currently facing price pressures, with average prices declining [41][42]. - Environmental regulations are tightening, which may lead to increased costs for glass manufacturers [42][43]. - Companies like Xinyi Glass are expected to maintain competitive positions despite market challenges, with a focus on profitability in their automotive glass segment [44].

Group 1 - The cement stocks have mostly risen, with Dongwu Cement increasing by 22.93% to HKD 5.63, China National Building Material up by 11.4% to HKD 5.57, and Huaxin Cement Technology rising by 2.08% to HKD 1.96 [1] - Dongwu Cement announced a significant reduction in losses expected in the first half of 2025, attributed to the "anti-involution" policy in the domestic cement industry and a slowdown in overall market demand in China [1] - The company also reported gains from the sale of cement clinker capacity indicators, which will continue to be replaced by externally purchased clinker supply [1] Group 2 - Tianfeng Securities noted that cement prices continued to decline in July, with a national average of RMB 344 per ton, down RMB 44 per ton year-on-year and RMB 8 per ton since early July [2] - Many regions have seen cement prices reach or fall below cost lines, and rising coal prices have further increased profit pressures for companies [2] - In response, regions like the Yangtze River Delta and Hubei have begun to actively implement peak-shaving measures and raise prices by approximately RMB 30 per ton, with expectations for gradual recovery in profitability as demand enters the peak season [2]

天风证券指出，7月份水泥价格延续下行趋势，截至上周全国均价344元/吨，同比低44元/吨，较7月初 下降8元/吨，当前多数区域水泥价格已触及或跌破成本线，叠加煤炭价格持续走高，企业盈利压力进一 步加大，本周长三角、湖北等地开始积极错峰并推涨价格，涨幅约30元/吨，该行认为在当前条件下企 业错峰执行效果或较上半年更显著，叠加后续需求进入旺季，效益有望逐渐恢复，关注相对底部布局机 会。 智通财经APP获悉，水泥股多数上涨，截至发稿，东吴水泥(00695)涨22.93%，报5.63港元；中国建材 (03323)涨11.4%，报5.57港元；华润建材科技(01313)涨2.08%，报1.96港元；海螺水泥(00914)涨0.49%， 报24.82港元。 消息面上，东吴水泥上周五盘后发布公告，集团预期于2025年上半年将大幅减亏。公告称，亏损减少主 要是由于国内水泥行业"反内卷"政策带动业绩缓和回升，以及中国整体市场需求下降放缓；及出售水泥 熟料产能指标取得收益(该等产能指标将持续以外购熟料供应替代)所致。中国银河证券认为，7月处于 季节性淡季，高温雨水影响下游施工，全国水泥需求减少，全国熟料线停窑率有所提升，但熟料库 ...

Group 1 - Hong Kong cement stocks experienced a significant rise, with Dongwu Cement leading the gains at over 17%, followed by China National Building Material at over 7% [1] - Other notable performers included Huaxin Cement with a 2% increase, and China Tianrui Cement, China Resources Cement Technology, and Jinyu Group all rising over 1% [1] - The report from China Galaxy Securities indicated that July was a seasonal off-peak period, with high temperatures and rain affecting downstream construction, leading to a decrease in national cement demand and an increase in clinker inventory [2] Group 2 - Dongwu Cement is expected to reduce its losses to approximately 12.966 million yuan for the six months ending June 30, 2025, compared to a loss of about 39.981 million yuan in the same period last year, representing a reduction of approximately 67.6% [3] - The industry outlook suggests that demand is expected to gradually recover in mid to late August, with a potential stabilization and rebound in cement prices [2]

港股建材水泥股盘初拉升，其中，东吴水泥大涨超17%领衔，中国建材涨超7%，华新水泥涨2%，中国 天瑞水泥、华润建材科技、金隅集团涨超1%，海螺水泥涨0.4%。 消息上，中国银河证券研报表示，7月处于季节性淡季，高温雨水影响下游施工，全国水泥需求减少， 全国熟料线停窑率有所提升，但熟料库存继续增长，行业供需矛盾较大，水泥价格均呈下降态势。后续 来看，预计8月中下旬需求有望逐步回升，水泥价格有望止跌回涨。个股方面，东吴水泥公布，预期截 至2025年6月30日止六个月，亏损将减少至约1,296.6万元，而去年同期亏损约3,998.1万元，减幅约为 67.6%。 | 代码 | 名称 | 最新价 | 涨跌幅 ▽ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 00695 | 东吴水泥 | 5.360 | 17.03% | | 03323 | 中国建材 | 5.350 | 7.00% | | 06655 | 华新水泥 | 13.550 | 1.96% | | 01252 | 中国天瑞水泥 | 0.315 | 1.61% | | 01313 | 华润建材科技 | 1.940 | 1.04% | | 02009 ...

| 表格序號 | 大股東/董事/最高行政人員名 作出披露的價入 / 賣出或涉及的 每股的平均價 | | | | 持有權益的股份數目 佔已發行的有關事件的日 相關法 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 股份數目 | | | | 恭、恭上題參照。 有投票權股 期 (日 / 月 / | | | | | | | 份自分比 年) | | | | | | | 96 | | CS20250815E00001 | The Capital Group | 1101(L) | 3,059,000(L | HKD 24.7227 | 119,519,500(L) 9.20(L) 13/08/2025 | | | Companies, Inc. | | | | | 增持后，The Capital Group Companies, Inc.最新持股数目为119,519,500股，持股比例由8.96%上升至9.20%。 | 股份代號: | 00914 | | --- | --- | | 上市法國名稱: | 安徽海螺水泥股份有限公司 - H股 | | 日期 (日 / 月 / 年): | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the building materials industry [2]. Core Insights - The real estate sector remains in a weak economic environment, but changes on the supply side are more promising [1]. - The cement sector is expected to benefit from demand driven by urban renewal and supply restrictions, leading to improved market conditions [4][7]. - The report highlights the potential for price increases in waterproofing products, which could enhance industry profit margins [7]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The building materials industry consists of 73 listed companies with a total market value of 838.733 billion yuan and a circulating market value of 789.313 billion yuan [2]. - The report notes a decline in real estate development investment, with a 12% year-on-year decrease, and a 4% drop in commercial housing sales area [7]. Key Companies - North New Building Materials: EPS forecast for 2024A is 2.2 yuan, with a "Buy" rating [5]. - Conch Cement: EPS forecast for 2024A is 1.5 yuan, with a "Buy" rating [5]. - China Jushi: EPS forecast for 2024A is 0.6 yuan, with a "Buy" rating [5]. - Weixing New Materials: EPS forecast for 2024A is 0.6 yuan, with a "Buy" rating [5]. - Sankeshu: EPS forecast for 2024A is 0.5 yuan, with an "Overweight" rating [5]. - Huaxin Cement: EPS forecast for 2024A is 1.2 yuan, with a "Buy" rating [5]. - Shandong Pharmaceutical Glass: EPS forecast for 2024A is 1.4 yuan, with a "Buy" rating [5]. - Qibin Group: EPS forecast for 2024A is 0.1 yuan, with an "Overweight" rating [5]. - Dongfang Yuhong: EPS forecast for 2024A is 0.1 yuan, with a "Buy" rating [5]. - Jianlang Hardware: EPS forecast for 2024A is 0.3 yuan, with a "Buy" rating [5]. - China National Materials: EPS forecast for 2024A is 1.5 yuan, with a "Buy" rating [5]. Market Trends - The cement market saw a 0.2% increase in prices, with specific regions experiencing price hikes of 10-30 yuan per ton [31]. - The national cement output for January to July 2025 was 958 million tons, a 4.5% year-on-year decrease [7]. - The report anticipates a steady upward trend in cement prices due to rising coal costs and improved demand conditions [31]. Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies that are likely to benefit from supply restrictions and urban renewal projects, such as Huaxin Cement and Conch Cement [7][8]. - It also suggests monitoring companies in the waterproofing sector, like Dongfang Yuhong, for potential profit margin improvements [7].

据香港联交所最新数据显示，8月13日，The Capital Group Companies,Inc.增持海螺水泥（600585） (00914)305.9万股，每股作价24.7227港元，总金额约为7562.67万港元。增持后最新持股数目约为1.2亿 股，持股比例为9.2%。 ...