证券研究报告 乘用车1月月报：内需静待改善，出口韧性较强 证券分析师 ：黄细里 执业证书编号：S0600520010001 联系邮箱：huangxl@dwzq.com.cn 联系电话：021-60199790 2026年1月30日 核心观点 电动化数据跟踪：2025年12月行业景气度低于预期，2026年1月以旧换新政策落地 ———————————————————————————————— ◼ 2025年12月多数省市以旧换新政策预算资金池告罄，消费者观望情绪严重，行业零售同比下滑明显；批发层 面车企主动调节生产/库存节奏，环比下行。2025年12月新能源汽车零售渗透率58.7%，同环比分别+10.9/- 2.5pct。12月乘用车行业渠道去库6.9万辆，其中新能源车去库4.3万辆。12月新能源车格局基本保持稳定，其 中比亚迪市占率25%，环比+0pct；吉利市占率11%，环比-1pct。2026年1月乘用车以旧换新政策落地。 全球化数据跟踪：2025年12月东南亚市场新能源渗透率超预期，比亚迪出口表现超预期 投资建议与风险提示 2 ———————————————————————————————— —————— ...

Overall Market - The total market for passenger vehicles in 2025 is projected to have a production of 29.67 million units, with a retail sales figure of 23.74 million units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.8% [9][10]. - The market share of new energy vehicles (NEV) is expected to reach 53.9% in 2025, up from 47.6% in 2024, indicating a significant increase in consumer adoption [10][12]. Submarket Analysis - The breakdown of the total market shows that NEVs will account for 12.81 million units in retail sales, representing a 17.6% increase compared to 2024 [10][12]. - The retail sales of fuel vehicles are projected to decline by 14.0% year-on-year, highlighting a shift in consumer preference towards NEVs [9][10]. Export Market - The export of NEVs is expected to grow significantly, with a total of 5.74 million units exported in 2025, marking a 19.7% increase from the previous year [16][17]. - The penetration rate of NEVs in the export market is projected to reach 42.2% in 2025, up from 27.1% in 2024, indicating a strong demand for Chinese NEVs abroad [20][22]. Manufacturer Performance - BYD is leading the NEV market with a wholesale volume of 414,784 units, although this represents a decline of 18.6% year-on-year [25]. - Tesla China ranks third in wholesale sales with 97,171 units, showing a modest growth of 3.6% [25]. - The top ten manufacturers collectively account for 71.5% of the NEV market share, indicating a high concentration in the industry [25][26]. Vehicle Type Segmentation - In 2025, the retail sales of sedans, MPVs, and SUVs are projected to be 12.26 million, 1.30 million, and 10.18 million units respectively, with NEVs showing a positive growth trend across all categories [30][31]. - The retail sales of fuel vehicles in the sedan category are expected to decline by 30.3%, while NEVs in the same category are projected to grow by 2.6% [30][31].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the passenger car sector, particularly in the context of the new vehicle replacement policy and the resilience of exports [2][3]. Core Insights - The passenger car industry experienced a significant decline in retail sales in December 2025, with a year-on-year drop of 16% and a total retail volume of 227,000 units. The wholesale volume was 279,000 units, reflecting a decrease of 9.7% year-on-year [7][10]. - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles (NEVs) reached 58.7% in December 2025, showing a year-on-year increase of 10.9% [10][12]. - The report highlights the stability of the NEV market, with BYD holding a market share of 25% and Geely at 11% in December 2025 [16]. Electric Vehicle Data Tracking - The report indicates that the old-for-new vehicle replacement policy was implemented in January 2026, which is expected to stimulate demand in the passenger car market [2][3]. - In December 2025, the NEV wholesale volume was 156,300 units, with a year-on-year increase of 3.4% [12]. - The report notes a significant inventory reduction in the passenger car sector, with a total decrease of 69,000 units in December 2025, including 43,000 units of NEVs [13]. Globalization Data Tracking - The report tracks the performance of Chinese car manufacturers in international markets, noting that in December 2025, 641,000 passenger cars were exported, with 245,000 being NEVs, resulting in a penetration rate of 38.2% for NEVs [3][43]. - The report highlights the strong performance of BYD in exports, particularly in Southeast Asia, where the NEV penetration rate exceeded expectations [3][27]. - The market share of Chinese brands in various regions, including Southeast Asia and Europe, showed positive trends, with notable increases in the UK market [38][40].

Group 1 - The top three companies with the highest AH premium rates are Northeast Electric (00042) at 831.03%, Zhejiang Shibao (01057) at 339.32%, and Sinopec Oilfield Service (01033) at 323.71% [1][2] - The bottom three companies with the lowest AH premium rates are CATL (03750) at -14.62%, China Merchants Bank (03968) at -3.22%, and Hengrui Medicine (01276) at 1.77% [1][2] - Sinopec Oilfield Service (01033), Andeli Juice (02218), and Shandong Molong (00568) have the highest deviation values at 53.41%, 21.68%, and 19.01% respectively [1][2] Group 2 - The companies with the lowest deviation values include Zhejiang Shibao (01057) at -58.91%, Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable (06869) at -49.00%, and Fudan Zhangjiang (01349) at -24.81% [1][2][4] - The top ten AH stocks by premium rate include companies like Hongye Futures (03678) and Beijing Electromechanical (00187) with premium rates of 258.91% and 257.99% respectively [2] - The bottom ten AH stocks by premium rate include Weichai Power (02338) and Midea Group (00300) with premium rates of 6.84% and 8.51% respectively [2]

Core Viewpoint - BYD launched the 2026 models of the Seal 05DM-i and Seal 06DM-i at a press conference in Beijing, with starting prices of 89,800 yuan and 116,800 yuan respectively, both offering a pure electric range of 210 km [1] Group 1: Product Features - The introduction of the 210 km pure electric range aims to provide users with a higher value experience, promoting "low-cost, zero-anxiety" green travel across various life scenarios [3] - The 210 km range is achieved through improvements in battery energy density and optimization of the vehicle's energy management system, alongside advancements in the safety performance of the lithium iron phosphate battery pack [5] - The "Heavenly Eye" advanced intelligent driving assistance system will be a key differentiator for high-end models, supporting over 20 functions including highway navigation and intelligent parking [5] Group 2: User Experience - BYD conducted long-distance pure electric road tests in low-temperature environments, covering various road conditions, with all test vehicles showing no significant battery depletion [7] - The "Heavenly Eye" intelligent parking experience area attracted significant attention, showcasing challenging parking scenarios where users can control the vehicle's parking process via a mobile app, enhancing convenience [9] - The system can currently recognize over 100 parking scenarios and continuously optimizes parking strategies through deep learning, aiming for "everyone can park easily" [11]

Core Viewpoint - BYD's Ocean Network has launched two new models of its sedan series, the 2026 Seal 05DM-i and Seal 06DM-i Super Enjoy Edition, featuring a pure electric range of up to 210 km, with prices ranging from 89,800 to 126,800 yuan [1][8]. Group 1: Product Launch Details - The 2026 Seal 05DM-i introduces two new variants: the 210KM Premium and 210KM Flagship, priced at 89,800 yuan and 99,800 yuan respectively [1]. - The Seal 06DM-i Super Enjoy Edition also adds two new variants: the 210KM Enjoy and 210KM Flagship, priced at 116,800 yuan and 126,800 yuan respectively [1]. - Customers can benefit from various purchasing incentives, including zero down payment, zero interest, trade-in subsidies, and two years of free vehicle data [1]. Group 2: Intelligent Features - The new models are equipped with the Tian Shen Zhi Yan C-Auxiliary Driving system (DiPilot 100), offering over 20 functions such as high-speed navigation and intelligent parking [6]. - The 2026 Seal 05DM-i features over 100 core configurations as standard, enhancing smart, safety, and comfort aspects [6]. Group 3: Performance and Comfort Enhancements - The new models' electric range of 210 km allows for reduced charging frequency and increased electric travel for daily commutes, as well as extended travel radius for weekend trips [8]. - Interior features include split-type super sensory seats with multiple adjustments, a dual-zone climate control system, and a panoramic sunroof for an enhanced driving experience [10]. Group 4: Safety and Control Systems - The Yun Nian-C intelligent damping body control system provides millisecond-level adaptive adjustments to improve comfort and driving pleasure [11]. - Safety features include seven airbags, a W-HUD head-up display, and a tire blowout stability control system, ensuring a robust safety framework [11].

Group 1: Company Performance - Shengyi Technology (生益科技) expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.25 to 3.45 billion yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 87% to 98%. Shengyi Electronics (生益电子) anticipates a net profit of approximately 1.44 to 1.51 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 331.03% to 355.88% [4] - Wei Ce Technology (伟测科技) forecasts a net profit of around 300 million yuan for 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of approximately 133.96%. The growth is driven by the penetration of AI and automotive electronics, as well as the recovery in consumer electronics [4] - Jindan Technology (金丹科技) projects a net profit of 96 to 138 million yuan for 2025, indicating a significant year-on-year growth of 156% to 268%. The growth is attributed to the successful launch of a 50,000-ton lactic acid expansion project and a decrease in procurement costs [10] - Hengfeng Paper (恒丰纸业) anticipates a net profit of 178 to 215 million yuan for 2025, a year-on-year increase of 54% to 86%. The growth is primarily due to the successful launch of a new production line and breakthroughs in overseas markets [11] - Jieya Co. (洁雅股份) expects a net profit of 72 to 88 million yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 270% to 352%. The growth is driven by increased orders from major international clients and an improved business structure [12] Group 2: Industry Trends - The European Automobile Manufacturers Association reported that pure electric vehicle sales in the EU surged by 51% year-on-year to 217,898 units in December 2025, surpassing gasoline vehicles for the first time. The market share reached 22.6% [7] - In December, China's newly installed photovoltaic capacity was 40 GW, a year-on-year decrease of 43% but an increase of 84% month-on-month. The cumulative installed capacity for the year reached 315 GW, a year-on-year increase of 14% [8] - The snack food sector, represented by Wancheng Group (万辰集团), is expected to see a net profit of 1.23 to 1.4 billion yuan for 2025, driven by the continuous growth of the bulk snack business and an increase in store numbers to approximately 19,000 [14]

【文/观察者网 齐倩】 报告截图 产销双双突破3400万辆、产销连续17年稳居全球第一，新能源汽车新车销量占比近半、L2功能乘用车 渗透率达到64%……相较2024年，中国汽车行业去年进一步取得多方面突破。 今年1月，中国汽车工业协会公布的最新数据显示，2025年，我国汽车产销分别完成3453.1万辆和3440 万辆，同比分别增长10.4%和9.4%，高于年初预期。 1月30日，特斯拉首席执行官埃隆·马斯克在X平台转发一条2024年的推文：突发新闻——中国售出的汽 车中，电动汽车占比首次超过半数。 "中国太阳能和电动汽车的惊人增长，将大大降低其对石油和天然气的依赖。"马斯克写道。 推文提及，据中国乘用车市场信息联席会数据，2024年7月份，新能源汽车（包括电动汽车和插电式混 合动力汽车）零售销量占比达到创纪录的51.1%。"电动汽车已经明显减少了中国的石油需求：仅自 2023年以来，道路上电动汽车数量的增加就减少了约4%的交通燃料需求"。 同年8月份，英国专门研究气候变化的科学和政策网站"碳简报"（Carbon Brief）发布报告显示，中国二 氧化碳排放量在2024年第二季度下降1%，这是自疫情以来的首次季 ...

【文/观察者网 齐倩】 1月30日，特斯拉首席执行官埃隆·马斯克在X平台转发一条2024年的推文：突发新闻——中国售出的汽 车中，电动汽车占比首次超过半数。 "中国太阳能和电动汽车的惊人增长，将大大降低其对石油和天然气的依赖。"马斯克写道。 马斯克推文截图 马克龙转发的推文，将中国二氧化碳排放量下降与电动汽车需求上升联系在一起。 推文提及，据中国乘用车市场信息联席会数据，2024年7月份，新能源汽车（包括电动汽车和插电式混 合动力汽车）零售销量占比达到创纪录的51.1%。"电动汽车已经明显减少了中国的石油需求：仅自 2023年以来，道路上电动汽车数量的增加就减少了约4%的交通燃料需求"。 同年8月份，英国专门研究气候变化的科学和政策网站"碳简报"（Carbon Brief）发布报告显示，中国二 氧化碳排放量在2024年第二季度下降1%，这是自疫情以来的首次季度下降。 这份报告也指出，中国碳排放量下降，与石油产品需求持续下降相关。其中因素有很多，向电动汽车的 转型是其中之一。数据显示，过去十年，中国累计汽车销量中电动汽车的占比在2024年6月达到 11.5%，高于一年前的7.7%。"这意味着，电动汽车的增长使交 ...

兄弟们，特别是在加拿大的兄弟们，恭喜了！往后，你们买中国电车能便宜一大波，搞不好直接打5折都有可能。 这到底是啥情况？ 因为加拿大给中国造的电车亮绿灯了，直接砍掉了100%的关税。在之前的2024年，加拿大跟着美国搞事情，给中国电车加了100%的关税，综合税率干到 106.1%。 这有多夸张呢，相当于1台在中国卖15万的电车，拉到加拿大去高低得卖30万起。对比其他正常税率的车，咱中国造的电车铁定没啥竞争力。 现在好了，降到就剩下6.1%的最惠国关税，彻底减负了。 看到这，估计不少兄弟会说，这不得一夜之间让中国电车跑遍加拿大街头？ 别急着高兴，这事没那么简单。 这关税优惠目前就管未来5年，而且只有配额内的车，才能享6.1%的优惠税。这个配额也不多，2026年先给4.9万辆额度，之后逐年涨到7万辆就保持不变 了。 更关键的是，配额当年用不完就作废，不能留到明年。如果超额呢，那对不起了，超过的部分继续承受106.1%的超高关税。 所以这4.9万辆的名额很宝贵，肯定不是谁先到港口排队就给谁，门槛不少。 比如车企得在加拿大当地有建好的售后网点，得向中国商务部争取出口的配额，最后在加拿大海关那验明正身，这一关一关都过了， ...