Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index (HSI) closed at 25,129.15, up by 24.54 points or 0.10% from the previous close [1] - The index reached a high of 25,167.65 and a low of 25,039.93 during the trading session [1] - The average trading price was 25,103.79, with a trading volume of 32.99 million [1] Major Blue-Chip Stocks Performance - HSBC Holdings closed at HKD 101.987, an increase of 1.08% compared to the Hong Kong close [2] - Tencent Holdings closed at HKD 597.451, up by 0.75% from the Hong Kong close [2] ADR Performance - Tencent Holdings (ADR) increased by 0.42% to USD 593.000, with an ADR conversion price of HKD 597.451, reflecting a gain of HKD 4.451 compared to the Hong Kong stock [3] - HSBC Holdings (ADR) rose by 1.41% to USD 100.900, with an ADR conversion price of HKD 101.987, showing an increase of HKD 1.087 compared to the Hong Kong stock [3] - Alibaba (ADR) decreased by 1.53% to USD 115.700, with an ADR conversion price of HKD 115.343, down by HKD 0.357 compared to the Hong Kong stock [3]

机构：国信证券 研究员：孔祥/王京灵 多项核心指标实现双位数增长，利润增速进展顺利。截至2025 年中期，友邦保险实现税后营运溢利 36.09 亿美元，每股增加12%，显示出集团在盈利质量上的持续改善。上半年，公司产生的基本自由盈 余每股上升10%，达到35.69亿美元，反映出集团强劲的现金生成能力。管理层重申2023 年至2026 年每 股税后营运溢利复合年增长率9%至11%的目标，目前进展顺利。 上半年，公司实现新业务价值28.38 亿美元，按固定汇率计算同比增长14%。 风险提示：保费增速不及预期；科技成本较高；资产收益下行等。 2025 年中期，友邦保险股息同比增长10%至每股49.00 港仙，体现公司对未来现金流和资本状况的信 心。截至2025 年6 月30 日，股东资本比率为219%，虽较2024 年底略有下降，主要是由于股份回购和股 息支付，整体仍保持稳健水平。 投资建议：展望未来，友邦保险将继续受益于亚洲地区强劲的人口结构变化、财富增长以及保险渗透率 提升的长期趋势。集团在科技赋能、人工智能应用和产品创新方面的投入将进一步增强其竞争力。因此 我们维持此前盈利预测，预计公司2025 至2027 ...

Core Viewpoint - AIA Group reported a strong performance for the first half of 2025, with notable increases in new business value (NBV) and annualized new premiums, despite a decline in net profit [1][2]. Financial Performance - NBV reached $2.84 billion, up 14% year-on-year, with Q2 showing an 18.9% increase [1] - Annualized new premiums totaled $4.94 billion, reflecting an 8% year-on-year growth [1] - After-tax operating profit was $3.6 billion, a 6% increase year-on-year, with earnings per share up 12% [1] - Net profit decreased to $2.53 billion, down 24% year-on-year [1] - Embedded value stood at $70.9 billion, unchanged from the beginning of the year, with embedded value operating profit at $5.9 billion, up 9% [1] Regional Contributions - Hong Kong remained the largest contributor to the group's NBV, accounting for 35% of the total, with a 24% increase to $1.06 billion [2] - Mainland China saw a 10% increase in NBV, with Q2 showing a 15% rise; new branches contributed to a 36% increase in NBV [2] - Thailand's NBV increased by 35% to $520 million, while Singapore's rose by 16% to $260 million; Malaysia's NBV decreased by 3% due to changes in the health insurance market [2] Product Structure and Value Margin - Overall NBV margin improved by 3.8 percentage points to 57.7% [3] - Mainland China's NBV margin increased by 2 percentage points to 58.6%, driven by policy changes and product repricing [3] - Thailand's NBV margin significantly increased to 115.7% due to one-time sales in personal medical insurance [3] Distribution Channels - Agent channel NBV grew by 17%, accounting for 73.4% of total NBV, with a margin increase of 4.4 percentage points to 72% [3] - Partner channel NBV increased by 8%, with bank assurance channel NBV up 10% [3] Investment Strategy - The company reduced fixed income allocation while maintaining stable equity asset proportions [4] - The annualized net investment return was 1.9%, down 0.1 percentage points year-on-year [4] Profit Forecast and Investment Rating - The company expects continued growth driven by new branches in Mainland China and strong performance in Hong Kong [4] - The embedded value forecast for 2025-2027 is $73 billion, $77.6 billion, and $82.8 billion, with corresponding growth rates of 5.8%, 6.3%, and 6.7% [4] - Current price-to-embedded value (PEV) ratios are 1.37x, 1.29x, and 1.21x for the respective years, maintaining a "buy" rating [4]

Core Viewpoint - AIA Group's 1H25 performance aligns with expectations, showing robust growth in new business value (VONB) and operational profit, indicating strong operational efficiency and a solid outlook for future growth [1][4]. Group 1: VONB Performance - The company's VONB for 1H25 reached $2.84 billion, representing a year-over-year increase of 14% [1][2]. - VONB margin improved to 57.7%, up 3.4 percentage points year-over-year [1][2]. - VONB growth rates varied by region: Mainland China +10%, Hong Kong +24%, Thailand +35%, Singapore +16%, Malaysia -3%, and other regions +14% [2]. Group 2: Distribution Channels - The agent channel generated VONB of $2.22 billion, a 17% increase year-over-year, driven by improved product margins and agent quality [3]. - The partner distribution channel contributed VONB of $804 million, up 8% year-over-year, with a margin of 43.3% [3]. Group 3: Operational Profit and Free Surplus - The operational profit after tax (OPAT) for 1H25 was $3.61 billion, reflecting a 6% year-over-year increase [4]. - The company generated a free surplus of $2.43 billion, a 7% increase year-over-year, indicating strong capital generation capabilities [4]. Group 4: Investment Outlook - The company maintains a strong buy rating, with expectations for VONB growth rates of +15.2%, +9.2%, and +8.9% for 2025-2027 [5]. - The current stock price corresponds to projected PEV multiples of 1.32, 1.22, and 1.10 for 2025-2027 [5].

Core Viewpoint - AIA Group reported a robust growth in New Business Value (NBV) for 1H25, with a year-on-year increase of 14% on a constant currency basis, primarily driven by the Hong Kong and Southeast Asian markets [1] Group 1: Hong Kong Market Performance - The NBV in Hong Kong experienced a strong year-on-year growth of 24% in 1H25, an increase from 16% in 1Q25, despite a high base [1] - Both mainland visitors (MCV) and local residents contributed significantly, with growth rates of 30% and 18% respectively [1] - The company recruited 15% more agents year-on-year, with the agent channel's NBV growing by 35% [1] - The bancassurance channel also saw a high growth of 27% in NBV, while the professional intermediary channel's growth was weaker at 3% [1] - Regulatory changes in Hong Kong regarding dividend insurance demonstration rates may have stimulated sales in the second quarter [1] - The company expects the MCV business to maintain strong growth momentum, projecting a 24% increase in Hong Kong's NBV for 2025 [1] Group 2: Mainland China Market Performance - The NBV in mainland China declined by 4% year-on-year in 1H25, primarily due to adjustments in the EV assumptions from the previous year [2] - Excluding the impact of these assumptions, the NBV would have increased by 10%, with a comparable year-on-year growth of 15% in 2Q25 [2] - The agent channel in mainland China contributed over 80% to the NBV, indicating a solid performance [2] - The NBV profit margin for 1H25 was 58.6% (on an ANP basis), showing a significant improvement due to the assumption adjustments [2] - The company opened nine new regions in mainland China since 2019, with a 36% year-on-year growth in NBV from these new areas, which accounted for 8% of the mainland market [2] - AIA has set a new growth target for the NBV in these new regions at a CAGR of 40% from 2025 to 2030 [2] - The company anticipates a 1% growth in mainland China's NBV for 2025 [2] Group 3: Southeast Asia Market Performance - The Southeast Asia market maintained a solid growth trajectory, with NBV growth rates of 35%, 16%, and -3% for Thailand, Singapore, and Malaysia respectively in 1H25 [2] - The high growth in Thailand may be linked to the "stop-sale" of older medical insurance products, which could pose challenges for growth in the second half of the year [2] - Other markets in Southeast Asia saw a 14% year-on-year increase in NBV, with India experiencing a notable growth of 38% [2] - The company expects a 14% growth in NBV for the Southeast Asia market (including Singapore, Malaysia, and Thailand) in 2025 [2] Group 4: Financial Performance and Forecast - The company's OPAT grew by 6% year-on-year in 1H25, with a 12% increase in OPAT per share, aligning with the company's CAGR guidance of 9%-11% for 2023-2026 [3] - The return on equity (ROE) for 1H25 was 18%, indicating strong performance [3] - The interim dividend per share was HKD 0.49, reflecting a 10% year-on-year increase, with total returns to investors (including buybacks) amounting to USD 3.7 billion [3] - The company projects a 5% growth in OPAT per share for 2025, with an estimated ROE of 17% [3] - The estimated dividend yield (including buybacks) for 2025 is expected to reach 4.7%, with an overall NBV growth forecast of 13% for 2025 [3] - The company has adjusted its 2025 EPS forecast down by 22% to USD 0.49, while maintaining the EPS forecasts for 2026 and 2027 at USD 0.70 and USD 0.79 respectively [3] - The target price remains unchanged at HKD 85, based on book value and intrinsic value methods, with a "buy" rating maintained [3]

机构：中金公司 研究员：毛晴晴/姚泽宇 1H25 新业务价值符合我们预期 友邦披露2025 半年报，新业务价值（VONB）在固定汇率（CER）和实际汇率（AER）下分别同比 +14%和+16%，基本符合我们和市场预期；每股营运利润（OPAT）同比+12%（AER 和CER），每股产 生的基本自由盈余同比上升10%（CER）和11%（AER），中期每股分红同比+10%至0.49港元，好于我 们和市场预期。 发展趋势 其他市场表现整体符合预期。1H25 友邦泰国VONB 同比+35%，受益于3月监管规则变化带来的一次性 购买，2Q25 保费增长相较1Q 已经有所放缓；友邦新加坡VONB 同比+16%，同样受益于2Q 产品迭代引 发的提前购买；友邦马来西亚代理人渠道VONB 较为疲软但已有复苏迹象，银保渠道的增长一定程度 抵消了上述负面影响；其他市场VONB 延续上升趋势。 关注独立主席换届后的战略方向。此前友邦公告Mark Tucker 将于2025 年10 月回归友邦担任独立非执行 主席及独立非执行董事，其曾在2010-2017年任友邦首席执行官兼总裁并取得优秀的经营业绩、受到较 多长线投资人认可，建议关注其上 ...

Core Viewpoint - AIA Group's (01299) Chinese operations are gaining increased market attention due to sustained recovery-driven growth and improved profit margins [1] Group 1: Growth Drivers - Management identifies three key growth drivers in the Chinese market: professional high-end agents, differentiated banking business, and geographical expansion [1] - The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of new business value in new regions for AIA China is projected to reach 46% from the first half of 2022 to the first half of 2025 [1] Group 2: Performance and Confidence - The company has a strong performance record, encouraging recruitment trends, and positive operational results, leading management to express confidence in the company's future [1] - Morgan Stanley has set a target price of HKD 96 for AIA, maintaining an "Overweight" rating [1]

Core Viewpoint - AIA Group, the largest life insurance group in Asia, reported a strong financial performance for the first half of the year, with significant growth in new business value and operating profit, and is set to launch its wholly-owned asset management company by the end of the year [1][6]. Financial Performance - AIA Group achieved a post-tax operating profit of approximately $3.609 billion for the first half of the year, with a year-on-year increase of 12% [1]. - The new business value reached $2.838 billion, reflecting a 14% year-on-year growth, with a new business value margin of approximately 57.7%, up by 3.4 percentage points [1]. - In mainland China, AIA Life reported a new business value of about $743 million, with a new business value margin of 58.6%, an increase of 2 percentage points year-on-year [1]. Market Outlook - AIA's Chief Investment Officer, Mark Konyn, expressed optimism about the potential for further increases in Hong Kong stocks, citing a year-to-date increase of 33.14% in AIA's stock price and a 25.15% rise in the Hang Seng Index [2][4]. - The outlook for Hong Kong's economy and corporate earnings is moderately optimistic, with a GDP growth rate of 3.1% in Q2 2025 [4]. Asset Management Company - AIA Asset Management, headquartered in Shanghai, is expected to commence operations by the end of the year, with the initial focus on the group's proprietary business [7][8]. - The company will recruit talent from the market and transfer some employees from the life insurance business to form its core team [7]. - AIA Group manages nearly $300 billion in assets, primarily invested in fixed income, while ensuring not to overexpose itself to interest rate risks [8]. Expansion in Mainland China - AIA Life has rapidly expanded its insurance business in mainland China, becoming the first wholly foreign-owned life insurance company in the region [8]. - As of now, four new branches have opened, accumulating over 1,700 qualified new hires [8].

Core Viewpoint - AIA aims for a compound annual growth rate of 40% in new business value in four new regions in China from 2025 to 2030 [1][5][6]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, AIA reported a 14% increase in new business value to $2.838 billion, with the China segment contributing $743 million, a 10% year-on-year growth [2][3]. - The operating profit increased to $5.893 billion, with earnings per share rising by 15% [3]. - AIA returned $3.7 billion to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks, with a 10% increase in interim dividends to HKD 0.49 per share [4]. Business Expansion in China - AIA has intensified its business operations in mainland China, particularly in Anhui, Shandong, Chongqing, and Zhejiang, where over 1,700 new agents have been established, targeting 100 million potential customers [2][5][6]. - The company expects significant growth in these regions, with a target of 40% compound annual growth rate for new business value over the next five years [1][6]. Cost Management and Efficiency - AIA demonstrated effective cost control, achieving an operating profit margin of 15.1% and a reduction in expense ratio to 8.2% [3].

Group 1: Financial Performance - AIA Group reported a post-tax operating profit of approximately $3.609 billion for the first half of the year, with a year-on-year increase of 12% in post-tax operating profit per share [2] - The new business value for the first half was $2.838 billion, reflecting a 14% year-on-year growth, with a new business value margin of approximately 57.7%, up by 3.4 percentage points [2] - In mainland China, AIA Life achieved a new business value of about $743 million, with a new business value margin of 58.6%, an increase of 2 percentage points year-on-year [2] Group 2: Market Outlook - The CEO and President of AIA Group, Lee Yuanxiang, indicated that 13 out of 18 markets experienced growth in the first half of the year [2] - Mark Konyn, Chief Investment Officer, expressed optimism about the Hong Kong stock market, suggesting further upside potential, with the Hang Seng Index up 25.15% year-to-date as of August 21 [5] - The Hong Kong GDP growth rate for Q2 2025 was reported at 3.1%, with increases in both goods and services exports [5] Group 3: Asset Management Development - AIA Asset Management, headquartered in Shanghai, is expected to commence operations by the end of the year, with progress on establishment proceeding smoothly [7] - The company will initially focus on the group's proprietary business and plans to expand capabilities over time, considering partnerships with mainland institutional investors [7] - AIA Group manages nearly $300 billion in assets, with a significant portion invested in fixed income, while ensuring limited exposure to interest rate risks [8]