Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for investors [3][16]. Core Insights - The company has demonstrated strong growth in new business value, with a 33% year-on-year increase to $4.034 billion as of December 31, 2023. Notably, the new business value in mainland China grew by 20%, while Hong Kong saw an impressive 82% increase [3][16]. - The annualized new premium increased by 45% to $7.650 billion in 2023, driven by a shift towards long-term savings products and increased contributions from bank insurance in mainland China [3][16]. - The company's new business value margin decreased to 52.6% for the year but improved to 54.5% in the second half of 2023, reflecting operational enhancements [3][16]. Financial Metrics - Total assets for 2023 are reported at $286.32 billion, with total liabilities at $244.7 billion, resulting in a net asset value of $44.75 billion [1][10]. - The company’s operating profit after tax for 2023 was $6.213 billion, with a return on equity (ROE) of 9.0% [17][31]. - The intrinsic value increased by 7% to $76.083 billion, and the new business value is projected to grow to $4.87 billion in 2024, with a year-on-year growth rate of 20.8% [15][22].

| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------|--------|----------------|------------------------|-----------------|--------------------------|--------|--------|--------|--------|--------|--------------| | 表 1 绝对估值法得到公司 | 2024E | 2024 \n2025E | 年每股评估价值 \n2026E | 91.38 \n2027E | 港元（百万美元） \n2028E | 2029E | 2030E | 2031E | 2032E | 2033E | 未来年份 NBV | | 折现因子 | 92% | 84% | 77% | 70% | 64% | 59% | 54% | 49% | 45% | 41% | 41% | | NBV （折现 后） | 4149 | 4145 | 41 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for the company with a revised target price of HK$96.50, implying a 1.8x FY24E P/EV [18][19]. Core Insights - The company reported a full-year Value of New Business (VNB) growth of 33% year-on-year to US$4,034 million, with Annualized New Premium (ANP) increasing by 45% to US$7,650 million, aligning with forecasts [18]. - The VNB margin narrowed to 52.6%, but improved sequentially by 3.8 percentage points to 54.5% in the second half of 2023 [18]. - The company is expected to sustain mid-double digit VNB growth in the first quarter of 2024, driven by strong momentum in the MCV segment [18]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company achieved a net profit of US$3,781 million in FY23, with an EPS of US$0.33 [19]. - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to increase from 8.8% in FY23 to 15.0% in FY24E [19]. - The operating return on embedded value is expected to rise from 13.0% in FY23 to 14.2% in FY24E [15]. Valuation Metrics - The report indicates a P/Embedded Value of 1.3x for FY23, projected to decrease to 1.2x in FY24E [19]. - The dividend yield is expected to increase from 2.1% in FY23 to 2.9% in FY24E [19]. - The average risk discount rate for the group has been revised down from 10% to 9.5% [20]. Embedded Value and Growth Projections - The embedded value for FY23 is reported at US$67,447 million, with projections of US$71,790 million for FY24E [24]. - The long-term growth rate is set at 3.0%, with VNB growth expected to be 11.5% in FY24E [24]. - The company’s new business multiplier is projected to be 22.8x for FY24E [24]. Market and Economic Assumptions - The report highlights a trend of negative investment variances impacting profitability, alongside higher medical claims [18]. - The average long-term investment return is estimated at 8.6%, reflecting a prolonged low-interest-rate environment [20].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to AIA Group, with a target price of HK$91.38 [4][16][129]. Core Insights - AIA Group's New Business Value (NBV) reached $4.03 billion, reflecting a 33% year-over-year increase at constant exchange rates, with Q4 2023 NBV at $1.01 billion, up 24% year-over-year [15][36][129]. - The NBV margin was reported at 52.6%, down 4.5 percentage points year-over-year, but showed recovery in the second half of 2023 to 54.5% [36][58][129]. - Annualized New Premiums (ANP) hit a record high of $7.65 billion, up 45% year-over-year, with H2 2023 contributing $3.67 billion, a 39.4% increase [36][129]. - The net profit for the year was $3.76 billion, representing a 15% increase year-over-year [36][129]. - The embedded value was $67.4 billion, down 2% year-over-year, while the operating profit from embedded value increased by 33% year-over-year [36][129]. Summary by Sections Channels and Manpower - The agency channel's NBV increased by 23% year-over-year, accounting for 75.7% of total NBV, while the NBV margin decreased by 8.0 percentage points to 65.4% [100][129]. - The partner channel outperformed with a 58% year-over-year increase in NBV, and the bancassurance channel saw a 42% increase [100][129]. Regional Performance - Hong Kong regained its position as the largest contributor to NBV, with an 82% year-over-year increase to $1.43 billion, half of which was contributed by mainland visitors [15][130]. - Mainland China's NBV grew by 20% year-over-year, with a notable 28% growth from February to December [15][130]. - The "New Malaysia Thailand" region continued to show positive growth, with increases of 10%, 7%, and 21% year-over-year [15][130]. - Other regions maintained stable NBV, with a 15% year-over-year increase when excluding Vietnam [15][130]. Financial Metrics - The report indicates a decrease in the overall NBV margin to 52.6%, with a recovery in the second half of 2023 [58][129]. - The average credit rating of the fixed income investment portfolio improved from A- in 2022 to A in 2023 [37][129]. - The report projects continued growth in 2024, supported by the development of new branches in Mainland China and strong growth in the ASEAN region [16][129].

非银行金融 2024 年 03 月 18 日 证监会审核华创证券投资咨询业务资格批文号：证监许可（2009）1210 号 未经许可，禁止转载 比+1.5pct 到 67.2%，保障类产品占比有所上升。（3）马来西亚：2023 年实现 新业务价值 3.19 亿美元，同比+7%；年化新保费 4.73 亿美元，同比+12%；新 业务价值利润率同比-2.6pct 到 67.3%。 其他市场：2023 年实现新业务价值 4.06 亿美元，同比-3%（实际汇率）；年化 新保费 13.96 亿美元，同比+4%；新业务价值利润率同比-1.4pct 到 28.9%。多 数市场新业务价值实现较好的增长（合计同比+15%），但被越南市场承保开支 超支增加、新业务价值下降影响所部分抵消，主要原因在于当地市场负面的消 费者情绪。 净/总投资收益率均上行。2023 年净投资收益率 4.3%，同比+0.1pct；总投资收 益率 4.8%，同比+0.3pct。截至 2023 年末，总投资资产达到 2685.48 亿美元， 其中保单持有人及股东账户占比 88%，单位连接式合约及合并投资基金占比 12%。（1）单位连接式合约及合并投资基金主要进 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for AIA Group with a current price of HKD 61.0 [16]. Core Insights - AIA Group's new business value (VONB) showed strong growth, particularly in the mainland China market, with a year-on-year increase of 30.5% to USD 40.3 billion [16][18]. - The company achieved a net profit of USD 3.76 billion in 2023, reflecting a 13.0% increase compared to the previous year, driven by improved investment returns [16][18]. - AIA's annualized new premiums reached a record high of USD 76.5 billion, up 41.5% year-on-year, indicating robust demand for savings insurance products post-pandemic [16][18]. Summary by Sections New Business Value Performance - AIA's new business value in mainland China was USD 10.4 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 13.2% [9]. - The agency channel's new business value grew by 21.1% to USD 3.22 billion, while the partner distribution channel saw a 55.0% increase to USD 1.03 billion [3]. Financial Performance - The company's total assets increased to USD 286.3 billion in 2023, with total liabilities at USD 244.7 billion [10]. - The net profit for 2023 was USD 3.76 billion, with a projected growth of 28.6% in 2024 [21]. Market Outlook - AIA Group is well-positioned in 18 major markets across the Asia-Pacific region, with a clear strategy to penetrate the mainland China market further [18]. - The report anticipates continued growth in new business value driven by high-quality agency and partner distribution channels [18].

退，新业务价值强劲复苏 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------------|-------|--------|---------|--------|--------| | [Table_ 单位：美元 Finance] | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 营业收入（百万元） | 5,466 | 5,091 | 5,343 | 5,921 | 6,896 | | 增长率 （ % ） | - | -6.86% | 4.95% | 10.82% | 16.47% | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 3,331 | 3,764 | 8,856 | 9,696 | 11,927 | | 增长率 （ % ） | - | 13.00% | 135.27% | 9.49% | 23.01% | | EPS （元 / 股） | 0.28 | 0.33 | 0.62 | 0.68 | 0.84 | | P/E | 28.42 | 24.11 | 12 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 | --- | --- | |----------------------------|------------| | | 保险 | | | | | [Table_Invest 评级： ] | 增持 | | 当前价格（港元）： | 64.85 | | | 2024.03.15 | [Table_industryInfo] | --- | --- | |----------------------------|-------------| | | | | [Table_ 交易数据 Market] | | | | | | 52 周内股价区间（港元） | 59.10-85.90 | | 当前股本（百万股） | 11,294 | | 当前市值（百万港元） | 732,392 | [Table_PicQuote] 52周内股价走势图 友邦保险 恒生指数 -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 2023/32023/42023/52023/62023/72023/82023/9 2023/102023/112023/122024/12024/2 | --- | |--------------- ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" [16][10]. Core Insights - The company's 2023 New Business Value (NBV) reached USD 4.03 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 30.5%, exceeding previous expectations. The growth in NBV is attributed to a rapid recovery in mainland China and Hong Kong [6][16]. - The company has adjusted its 2024-2025 NBV growth forecasts to +12.4% and +10.8%, respectively, down from previous estimates of +16.3% and +14.1%. A new forecast for 2026 NBV growth is set at +10.4% [6][16]. - The company's margin improved by 1.7 percentage points to 52.6% in 2023, although it still represents a year-on-year decline of 4.4 percentage points [6][16]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company reported a total premium income of HKD 324 billion for 2023, with a year-on-year growth of 13.3% [18]. - The NBV for mainland China increased by 13.2% year-on-year, while Hong Kong's NBV surged by 81.7%, making it the top contributor [6][7]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are HKD 2.8, HKD 3.0, and HKD 3.2, respectively [6][18]. Market Dynamics - The recovery in mainland China and Hong Kong is driven by the resurgence of offline activities and rapid growth in bancassurance channels, with mainland visitors contributing significantly to Hong Kong's NBV [6][7]. - The ASEAN region, including Thailand, Singapore, and Malaysia, continues to show recovery, with NBV growth rates of 21.9%, 12.9%, and 3.6%, respectively [7][18].

New Business Value Growth - AIA's new business value in Hong Kong grew by 82% in 2023, with annualized new premiums increasing to $2.407 billion, although the new business value margin decreased to 57.5%[1] - AIA Singapore reported a 10% increase in new business value, with the new business value margin rising by 1.5 percentage points to 67.2%[4] - AIA Malaysia's new business value increased by 7%, supported by growth in agency and partner distribution channels[8] - New business value in Vietnam declined due to negative consumer sentiment, but there are signs of gradual improvement in sales towards the end of 2023[11] - AIA Group achieved a new business value growth of 33% to USD 4.034 billion, with double-digit growth recorded across 10 markets and all distribution channels[150] - New business value increased to $4,034 million, a 33% rise compared to 2022[171] - New business value in mainland China reached $1,037 million with a profit margin of 51.3%, representing a 20% increase year-over-year at constant exchange rates[172] - Hong Kong's new business value was $1,430 million with a profit margin of 57.5%, showing an 82% increase in annualized new premiums compared to the previous year[172] - Thailand reported new business value of $713 million with a profit margin of 93.3%, reflecting a 21% increase year-over-year at constant exchange rates[172] - Singapore's new business value stood at $394 million with a profit margin of 67.2%, marking a 10% increase in annualized new premiums compared to the previous year[172] - Malaysia's new business value was $319 million with a profit margin of 67.3%, indicating a 7% increase year-over-year at constant exchange rates[172] - Total new business value across all markets amounted to $4,299 million with an overall profit margin of 55.6%, a 30% increase year-over-year at constant exchange rates[172] Financial Performance - AIA's operating profit after tax decreased by 17%, but adjusted for certain impacts, it showed an 8% growth[6] - The company reported a net profit of $3.764 million for the year, with total comprehensive income amounting to $2.426 million[85] - The company’s net profit for the year ended December 31, 2023, was $3,781 million, an increase of 12.4% compared to $3,365 million for the year ended December 31, 2022[103] - Total comprehensive income for the year ended December 31, 2023, was $2,426 million, a significant recovery from a loss of $5,494 million in the previous year[103] - The pre-tax profit for the year ended December 31, 2023, was $4,564 million, an increase from $4,054 million in the previous year[110] - The company reported a significant adjustment in financial investments, with a loss of $(9,435) million compared to a gain of $31,199 million in the previous year[110] Technology and Digital Initiatives - AIA's technology and digital initiatives have significantly improved operational efficiency and customer experience, with a focus on generative AI for better decision-making and productivity[12][13] - The AIA+ super app has been launched in multiple markets, enhancing digital experience and customer engagement, with plans for further expansion in 2024[15] - The group achieved an end-to-end straight-through processing rate of 85% in customer experience processes by December 2023, up from 35% in June 2020[29] - AIA China reported the highest straight-through processing rate at 91% among its seven business markets, all exceeding 80%[29] - In 2023, 79% of new business policies were completed through automated underwriting processes, and the end-to-end straight-through processing rate for purchase transactions increased by 36 percentage points to 72% since June 2020[56] - The company has made significant investments in technology, digital, and analytics to accelerate innovation and enhance decision-making and strategic execution[51] - The company is focusing on generative artificial intelligence applications to enhance operational efficiency and customer satisfaction[55] Health and Insurance Strategy - AIA's comprehensive health strategy aims to provide more accessible and efficient healthcare services across Asia, leveraging technology and data analytics[13] - AIA Thailand launched "AIA Health Saver" in 2023, attracting over 60% of policies from new customers, enhancing its leadership in the health and protection market[22] - Tata AIA Life introduced a market-first health plan in India, combining life insurance and health coverage, significantly expanding its ability to meet affluent customer needs[25] - AIA Malaysia launched new products with various deductibles and co-pay options to address recent healthcare spending inflation, promoting healthier lifestyles through "AIA Vitality"[26] - The company aims to create sustainable competitive advantages in health insurance through its comprehensive health strategy and integration with healthcare service providers[52] Governance and Financial Discipline - The company is committed to maintaining financial discipline and focusing on profitable new business growth to generate free surplus for reinvestment and shareholder value creation[50] - The company’s governance structure is responsible for overseeing the financial reporting process[75] - The company is closely monitoring developments related to the Pillar Two income tax policy, which may adversely affect its effective tax rate starting in 2025[63] - The company has initiated a share buyback program of up to $10 billion to return excess capital to shareholders[95] - The company plans to maintain a prudent and sustainable dividend policy while managing capital actively[95] Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) Commitment - The company has committed to achieving net-zero emissions by 2050, becoming the first in the Asia-Pacific region to have its short-term reduction targets verified by the Science Based Targets initiative (SBTi)[127] - AIA Group's commitment to environmental, social, and governance (ESG) issues has been recognized, achieving top ESG ratings for three consecutive years[155] - The company has successfully divested from coal mining and coal-fired power companies within its managed equity and fixed income portfolios[127] Shareholder Returns and Equity - The board proposed a final dividend of HKD 1.1907 per share, marking a 5% increase, leading to a total annual dividend of HKD 1.6136 per share for 2023[151] - The company has a total of $3,331 million in retained earnings after accounting for dividends and share repurchases[86] - Shareholders' equity decreased to $41,111 million as of December 31, 2023, down from $44,672 million in the previous year, reflecting a decline of 8.5%[105] - The company’s total comprehensive income attributable to shareholders was $2,417 million for the year ended December 31, 2023, compared to a loss of $5,497 million in the previous year[103]