证券研究报告·海外公司点评·纺织及服饰(HS) 特步国际(01368.HK) 24Q2 流水点评:运营质量改善,稳健增长符 合预期 2024 年 07 月 14 日 买入(维持) | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------|--------|----------|----------|----------|----------| | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 营业总收入(百万元) | 12930 | 14346 | 15399 | 16083 | 18020 | | 同比(%) | 29.13 | 10.94 | 7.34 | 4.44 | 12.04 | | 归母净利润(百万元) | 921.69 | 1,030.01 | 1,271.68 | 1,383.99 | 1,612.60 | | 同比(%) | 1.47 | 11.75 | 23.46 | 8.83 | 16.52 | | EPS-最新摊薄(元/股) | ...

海 外 公 司 ( 中 国 香 港 ) 证 券 研 究 报 告 股 票 研 究 Q2 流水符合预期,折扣库存持续改善 特步国际(1368)[Table_Invest] 评级: 增持 [当前价格 Table_CurPrice] :(港元) 5.00 [Table_Date] 2024.07.14 ——特步国际 2024Q2 经营数据点评 | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------|---------------------------|-----------------------------| | [table_Authors] | 刘佳昆(分析师) | 曹冬青(研究助理) | | | 021-38038184 | 0755-23976666 | | | liujiakun029641@gtjas.com | caodongqing026730@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 | S0880524040004 | S0880122070070 | 本报告导读: 主品牌 Q2 流水符合预期,经营质量持续改善,7 月至今流水延续 6 月趋势,预计全年 收入中到高单位数增长; ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The main brand's revenue is accelerating, with a 10% year-on-year growth in Q2 2024, driven by the successful launch of the cost-effective running shoe 360X, which sold 800,000 pairs since its release [4] - The company is focusing on optimizing its multi-brand matrix and strengthening its core running business, which is expected to enhance its competitive position [5] - The divestiture of the fashion sports business is progressing steadily, which is anticipated to improve the company's net profit despite potential delays in the transaction [5] Summary by Sections Market Data - Closing price (HKD): 5.21 - H-share market value (billion HKD): 137.78 - 52-week high/low (HKD): 9.38/3.61 [2] Operational Performance - Q2 2024 saw a 25% year-on-year increase in e-commerce revenue, with significant growth during the 618 shopping festival [4] - The inventory turnover ratio improved to approximately 4 months as of June 2024, down from 4-4.5 months in Q1 2024 [4] - The discount rate for the main brand tightened from 7-7.5 in Q1 2024 to 7.5 in Q2 2024, indicating healthier overall operations [4] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for FY2024E: 15.99 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth rate of 11% [6] - Net profit projections for FY2024E: 1.15 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth rate of 12% [6] - Expected earnings per share for FY2024E: 0.44 RMB [6] Brand Performance - The professional sports brands, such as Saucony and Merrell, experienced over 50% revenue growth in Q2 2024, indicating strong market positioning [4] - The company aims for a revenue growth target of high single digits to 10% for the full year, excluding the K&P brands [5]

纺织服饰/服装家纺 特步国际(01368.HK) 2024Q2 电商表现亮眼,高质量运营下流水稳健增长 2024 年 07 月 13 日 ——港股公司信息更新报告 投资评级:买入(维持) | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------|-------------------------|--------------------------| | 吕明(分析师) | 周嘉乐(分析师) | 张霜凝(联系人) | | lvming@kysec.cn | zhoujiale@kysec.cn | zhangshuangning@kysec.cn | | 证书编号:S0790520030002 | 证书编号:S0790522030002 | 证书编号:S0790122070037 | 2024Q2 电商表现亮眼,高质量运营下流水稳健增长,维持"买入"评级 公司 2024Q2 全渠道流水增长 10%,2024H1 全渠道流水高单增长,预计 2024H1 在产品组合调整下 ASP 保持稳定。2024Q2 高质量运营下流水稳健增长,折扣环 比改善,库销比恢复至疫情前水平,我们维持 ...

港股公司报告 | 公司点评 战略聚焦,主品牌强化性价比,改善利润率 24Q2 流水同增 10%,零售折扣约 75 折 24H1 零售销售同比增长高单位数,渠道库存周转约 4 个月。 剥离 KP 减轻负担,改善盈利水平 公司此前发布公告,盖世威和帕拉丁品牌自 2019 年起持续亏损,2024 年 一季度亏损约 900 万美元。因此,公司决定战略性出售资产,以消除 KP Global 亏损对特步盈利能力及现金流的持续性影响。 我们认为,此次出售一方面有望减轻公司财务负担,改善盈利能力;另一 方面或有助于公司聚焦业务至跑步领域,精简业务矩阵,有效增强品牌间 协同效应。其中,特步主品牌面向大众市场,迈乐专注越野跑和户外运动, 索康尼瞄准高端客户群体。 具体来看,迈乐作为全球户外鞋服领域的领导者,致力于将性能、时尚和 舒适度融为一体,提升用户的户外探索体验。 索康尼跑鞋以卓越性能闻名,得到中国内地专业和大众跑者的青睐。索康 尼的受欢迎程度反映于各项大型马拉松赛事的穿着率。在中国内地重点马 拉松赛事中,索康尼的穿着率于所有跑者中位列所有品牌第三。品牌受欢 迎程度的显著增长,一方面验证了索康尼的品质和性能,另一方面巩固了 ...

特步国际(01368.HK) 第二季度流水增长提速,库存与折扣改善 公司研究·海外公司快评 纺织服饰·服装家纺 投资评级:优于大市(维持) 证券分析师: 丁诗洁 0755-81981391 dingshijie@guosen.com.cn 执证编码:S0980520040004 证券分析师: 刘佳琪 010-88005446 liujiaqi@guosen.com.cn 执证编码:S0980523070003 事项: 公司公告:2024 年 7 月 11 日,公司发布 2024 年第二季度及上半年营运状况,第二季度特步主品牌线上线 下全渠道零售销售流水同比增长 10%,零售折扣 7.5 折;上半年主品牌全渠道零售销售流水同比增长高单 位数,渠道库销比 4 个月。 国信纺服观点: 1、第二季度特步主品牌表现符合预期,流水增长 10%,零售折扣和库销比环比优化; 2、风险提示:消费需求复苏不及预期;品牌形象受损;品牌恶性竞争加剧;市场的系统性风险; 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 证券研究报告 | 2024年07月12日 3、投资建议:第二季度流水增长提速,经营良性,中长期关注主品牌势能提升和多品牌 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a BUY rating for Xtep, with a target price of HK$7.32, reflecting a potential upside of 46.5% from the current price of HK$5.00 [2][4]. Core Views - Xtep is expected to mildly outperform the sportswear industry in 2H24E due to successful new product launches, robust e-commerce sales growth, and limited operating deleverage from its wholesale business model [2][7]. - The company anticipates retail sales growth of 10%+ for FY24E, with adjustments to the listed company level sales growth projected at high single digits to low teens due to the sale of K&P [2][8]. - The strong performance of Saucony, with retail sales growth exceeding 50% in 1H24, is expected to continue driving net profit margins above expectations [2][8]. Financial Summary - Revenue for FY24E is projected at RMB 15,322 million, with a year-on-year growth of 6.8% [3][12]. - Operating profit is estimated at RMB 1,920 million, with a net profit of RMB 1,266 million, reflecting a net profit margin of 8.3% [3][12]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for FY24E is projected at RMB 0.463, with a year-on-year growth of 18.6% [3][12]. Sales and Growth Drivers - Successful new product launches, particularly the 360X running shoes, have significantly contributed to sales momentum, with over 800,000 pairs sold since launch [2][7]. - E-commerce sales have shown robust growth, particularly on platforms like Douyin, with online sales increasing by more than 25% in 2Q24 [2][7]. - The company has improved its inventory to sales ratio, reducing it to four months, which is the lowest level since 2Q22, leading to improved retail discounts [2][7]. Margin Outlook - Gross profit margin is expected to remain stable at around 42.3% for FY24E, while operating profit margin is projected to improve due to reduced losses from the sale of K&P and a decrease in advertising and promotion expenses [2][8]. - The report anticipates a net profit margin of 8.3% for FY24E, with potential for further improvement in subsequent years [3][12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Xtep, with a target price adjusted to HKD 7.32, based on a FY24E price-to-earnings ratio of 14 times [1][2]. Core Views - Despite significant pressure in the sportswear industry, Xtep is expected to perform moderately better in the second half of 2024 due to successful product launches, strong e-commerce sales growth, and limited operational leverage from its wholesale business [1]. - The company has maintained its retail sales growth guidance for FY24E at over 10%, although adjustments have been made to the sales growth forecast due to the sale of K&P [1]. - The report highlights the strong performance of the Saucony brand, with retail sales growth exceeding 50% in 1H24, significantly outperforming many other overseas brands [1]. Financial Summary - Revenue (in million RMB): FY22A 12,930, FY23A 14,346, FY24E 15,322, FY25E 15,979, FY26E 17,494 [2]. - Year-over-Year Growth Rate (%): FY24E 6.8%, FY25E 4.3%, FY26E 9.5% [2]. - Net Profit (in million RMB): FY22A 912.3, FY23A 1,033.0, FY24E 1,275.3, FY25E 1,499.6, FY26E 1,756.7 [2]. - Earnings Per Share (in RMB): FY24E 0.46, FY25E 0.54, FY26E 0.64 [2]. - Price-to-Earnings Ratio (x): FY24E 9.6, FY25E 8.1, FY26E 6.9 [2]. - Dividend Yield (%): FY24E 14.1, FY25E 5.8, FY26E 6.8 [2]. Sales Performance - Xtep's retail sales growth in 2Q24 was reported at 10%, consistent with estimates and better than market expectations [6]. - Online sales surged over 25% in 2Q24, while offline sales showed modest growth [6]. - The inventory-to-sales ratio improved, indicating better inventory management and reduced retail discounts [6]. Brand Performance - Saucony's retail sales growth in 1H24 was over 50%, with expectations for continued strong performance in 2H24 due to new product launches and brand ambassador signings [1]. - The report notes that Xtep's strong e-commerce sales are supported by an increase in value products [1]. Adjustments and Forecasts - FY24E net profit estimates have been adjusted by -1%, +1%, and -1% for FY24E, FY25E, and FY26E respectively [1]. - The report indicates that the gross profit margin is expected to stabilize, while operating profit margin may improve due to reduced losses from the sale of K&P and lower advertising and promotion expenses [1].

证券研究报告 | 公司点评 2024 年 07 月 11 日 特步国际(01368.HK) 主品牌 Q2 流水高质量增长,预计电商业务表现亮眼 特步 2024Q2 流水增长 10%左右,整体表现符合预期。公司发布 2024 年 Q2 经营情况公告,特步品牌流水同比增长 10%左右(H1 增长 高单位数),Q2 零售折扣水平约 75 折,截至 Q2 末渠道存货周转天数 在 4 个月左右,运营质量稳健,整体表现符合预期。 ➢ 产品优化助力电商业务增速优异,线下渠道流水受限于客流波动表 现平稳。2024Q2 特步品牌终端流水同比增长 10%左右,分渠道来 看:我们预计电商渠道流水增速亮眼,增速预计在 25%+,线上渠 道的快速增长主要系产品结构优化带动,2024 年以来公司线上高性 价比产品逐步丰富,同时 3 月中下旬公司发布 360X 系列高性价比 碳板跑鞋,或带动线上销售,中长期来看我们预计公司电商业务快 速增长的趋势仍有望保持;Q2 线下渠道流水预计增长低单位数, 线下门店受限于消费环境波动,以及部分地区雨水天气较多,导致 客流表现较弱(我们判断 Q2 线下门店同店销售或有下降)。 展望 2024 年:面对消 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price set at 5.66 HKD, indicating an expected return of over 20% within the next six months [1]. Core Viewpoints - The strategic sale of KP Global Investment Limited, which includes the brands Gaiswei and Paladin for 150 million USD, aims to reduce brand losses and refocus on the core running business [1][2]. - The company plans to distribute a special dividend of approximately 150 million USD to reward investors following the completion of the sale [1]. - The financial restructuring is expected to optimize the company's performance, with projected revenues for 2024-2026 at 16 billion, 17.9 billion, and 19.8 billion RMB, respectively, and net profits of 1.17 billion, 1.34 billion, and 1.51 billion RMB [2]. Summary by Sections Investment Rating - The company is rated as "Buy" with a target price of 5.66 HKD [1]. Financial Performance - The company reported a loss of approximately 9 million USD for the two brands in Q1 2024, with expectations that losses for 2024 will be similar to those in 2023 [1]. - The asset-liability ratio stands at 48.5%, with a net asset value per share of 3.70 HKD [1]. Strategic Initiatives - The sale of KP Global is seen as a move to eliminate ongoing losses and improve cash flow, allowing the company to focus on its main brand and enhance collaboration among its brands [1]. - The company aims to leverage strong cash flow from its main brand to support the growth of its other brands, such as Saucony and Merrell [1].