Core Viewpoint - Cathay Securities maintains its profit forecast for Xtep International (01368) for 2025-2027, projecting net profits of RMB 1.37 billion, 1.49 billion, and 1.61 billion respectively, and sets a target price of HKD 8.74 for 2026, maintaining a "Buy" rating [1][2] Group 1: Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve a positive revenue growth for its main brand in 2025, with a forecasted growth of over 30% for Saucony [2] - The overall profit growth for the group is expected to be around 10% [2] - The inventory level is considered healthy, with expectations to drop below RMB 2 billion by the end of 2025 [2] Group 2: Brand Performance - The main brand experienced low single-digit growth in Q3, with discounts ranging from 70% to 75%, and inventory levels at 4-4.5 months [1] - Functional products showed strong performance, with revenue growth in running and other functional categories expected to outpace lifestyle products [1] - Saucony's Q3 revenue grew over 20% year-on-year, with offline sales growth outpacing online due to proactive adjustments in e-commerce strategies [1]

Core Viewpoint - Cathay Securities maintains its profit forecast for Xtep International (01368) for 2025-2027, projecting net profits of RMB 1.37 billion, RMB 1.49 billion, and RMB 1.61 billion respectively, and sets a target price of HKD 8.74 for 2026, maintaining a "Buy" rating [1][2] Group 1: Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve a revenue growth of approximately 10% for the overall group by 2025, with the main brand expected to show positive growth and Saucony's revenue anticipated to grow by over 30% [2] - The target price for Xtep International is set at HKD 8.74 based on a 15X PE for 2026 [1] Group 2: Sales Performance - In Q3, the main brand experienced low single-digit growth in revenue, with discounts ranging from 70% to 75%, and inventory levels maintained at 4 to 4.5 months [1] - The company showed strong performance in functional products, particularly in the running category, which is expected to outpace growth in lifestyle products [1] Group 3: Channel and Product Analysis - E-commerce growth is expected to outperform offline sales, with a notable trend in revenue growth during July and August, while September's warm weather may have impacted autumn and winter product sales [1] - Saucony's offline sales continued to show high growth in Q3, with a year-on-year revenue increase of over 20%, driven by proactive adjustments in e-commerce strategies [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][3][7] Core Views - The company's main brand retail sales in Q3 showed low single-digit year-on-year growth, while the Saucony brand experienced over 20% growth [2][3] - The management maintains the annual guidance, indicating stable growth prospects for the main brand and strong performance for the professional sports brand [3][6] - The company focuses on the running category, leveraging its expertise to achieve steady sales growth, with Saucony and another brand, Maile, targeting specific consumer segments for faster growth [3][9] Summary by Sections Q3 Performance - The main brand's retail sales in Q3 grew low single digits year-on-year, with better performance in July and August compared to September [4] - Online sales outperformed offline sales, with children's products showing stronger growth than adult products, particularly in functional categories like running and outdoor [4] Retail Discounts and Inventory - Retail discounts for the main brand remained stable at 70-75%, with inventory turnover ratio stable at 4.0-4.5 months, indicating a healthy inventory level [5] Brand Growth - Saucony's sales grew over 20%, with strategic adjustments made to reduce low-priced products in e-commerce and tighten discounts [6] - The management expects Saucony's revenue growth to exceed 30% in 2025, with profits anticipated to grow over 10% [6] Financial Forecasts - The company forecasts net profits of 1.4 billion, 1.49 billion, and 1.6 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 13.2%, 5.9%, and 7.7% [3][10] - The reasonable valuation range is maintained at 6.1-6.6 HKD, corresponding to a PE ratio of 11-12x for 2025 [3][9]

招商证券香港发布研报称，特步国际(01368.HK)重申2025全年业绩指引，并预计四季度将实现强劲增 长，并维持2025-27年盈利预测不变。鉴于"X Young"和索康尼持续拉动增长，该行的目标价基于12.5倍 26年中期市盈率，仍属于自2015年以来的长期平均估值水平，维持目标价7.7港元，维持增持评级。 投行对该股的评级以买入为主，近90天内共有28家投行给出买入评级，近90天的目标均价为7.53港元。 申万宏源最新一份研报给予特步国际买入评级。 机构评级详情见下表： | 股票代码 | 股票简称 | 投行名称 | 发布日期 | 评级 | 目标价(港元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 01368.HK | 特步国际 | 申万宏源 | 2025-10-19 | 买人 | -- | | 01368.HK | 特步国际 | 招商证券(香港)有限公司 | 2025-10-19 | 增持 | 7.70 | | 01368.HK | 特步国际 | 华西证券 | 2025-10-19 | 买人 | | | 01368.HK | 特步国际 | 浙商证券 | 2025 ...

智通财经APP获悉，中信里昂发表报告指，特步国际(01368)2025财年业绩指引维持不变。该行预计，两 个品牌的门市升级将持续进行，特步核心品牌的通路多元化将持续推进，Saucony(索康尼)的产品品类 也将持续拓展，这些都将推动销售增长。该行予该股"跑赢大市"评级，目标价为6.3港元。 报告指，特步股价在2025年第三季更新后于10月17日下跌3.5%，核心品牌和索康尼的销售趋势较上季 维持稳定。尽管可比销售额有所下降，但特步核心品牌零售额与第二季持平。线上销售额年增两位数， 仍优于线下销售额。 ...

中信里昂发表报告指，特步国际(01368)2025财年业绩指引维持不变。该行预计，两个品牌的门市升级 将持续进行，特步核心品牌的通路多元化将持续推进，Saucony(索康尼)的产品品类也将持续拓展，这 些都将推动销售增长。该行予该股"跑赢大市"评级，目标价为6.3港元。 报告指，特步股价在2025年第三季更新后于10月17日下跌3.5%，核心品牌和索康尼的销售趋势较上季 维持稳定。尽管可比销售额有所下降，但特步核心品牌零售额与第二季持平。线上销售额年增两位数， 仍优于线下销售额。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Xtep International (01368) reaffirms its full-year performance guidance for 2025, expecting strong growth in Q4, while maintaining profit forecasts for 2025-2027. The target price is set at HKD 7.7, based on a 12.5x mid-term P/E ratio for 2026, aligning with long-term average valuation levels since 2015 [1]. Group 1 - Xtep's main brand retail sales recorded low single-digit year-on-year growth in Q3, driven by double-digit percentage expansion in e-commerce sales and strong demand for running shoes [1]. - The "X Young" series continues to positively impact the overall brand performance, with average retail discounts maintained at 25%-30% and channel inventory turnover at 4-4.5 months [1]. - Despite concerns regarding the impact of e-commerce adjustments on the Double Eleven promotion, management anticipates a gradual recovery in e-commerce sales in Q4 [1]. Group 2 - Saucony contributed significantly to the group's growth, with retail sales increasing over 20% year-on-year, primarily due to more than 30% growth in offline business driven by rising consumer demand for high-end sports and running shoes [2]. - Strategic operational adjustments were made in the online business, focusing on reducing exposure to low-priced products and tightening discount levels, which may limit short-term growth but is expected to improve profit margins [2]. - Management expects this cautious operational strategy to support a gradual recovery in e-commerce sales in Q4 [2].

Group 1: Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index closed down 641 points, a decline of 2.48%, and accumulated a weekly drop of 1,043 points or 3.97% [2] - The Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 243 points or 4.05%, with a weekly loss of 499 points or 7.98% [2] - The trading volume for the day was 314.62 billion, with a net inflow of 6.30 billion from northbound trading [2] Group 2: Company Performance - HSBC Holdings (00005) closed down 1.9% at 100.9 HKD, while AIA Group (01299) fell 2.2% to 69.05 HKD [3] - Semiconductor companies like SMIC (00981) and Hua Hong Semiconductor (01347) saw declines of 6.5% and 6.9%, respectively [3] - BYD Electronics (00285) was the worst-performing blue chip, dropping 8.1% to 37.74 HKD [3] Group 3: Economic and Regulatory Developments - The Financial Secretary of Hong Kong, Paul Chan, emphasized the importance of attracting U.S. businesses and talent to invest in Hong Kong, highlighting the city's favorable business environment [6] - The Insurance Authority has classified AIA and Prudential as Domestic Systemically Important Insurers (D-SII), which will subject them to enhanced regulatory requirements [8] - The People's Bank of China Governor, Pan Gongsheng, discussed the need for multilateral cooperation in light of increasing global economic challenges [9] Group 4: Retail Sector Insights - Chow Tai Fook (01929) reported a 4.1% year-on-year increase in retail value for the second fiscal quarter, with same-store sales in Hong Kong and Macau rising by 6.2% [11] - Xtep International (01368) experienced low single-digit growth in retail sales in mainland China for the third quarter, with inventory turnover of approximately 4 to 4.5 months [14] Group 5: Financing Activities - Zhengli New Energy (03677) announced a placement of 45.92 million new H shares at a discount of 7.89% to raise approximately 504 million HKD for various projects [12] - Aneng Logistics (09956) received a conditional proposal for potential privatization from a consortium led by Dazhong Capital and Temasek [13]

Core Viewpoint - Xtep International (01368) is optimizing its multi-brand matrix by divesting its fashion sports brand in 2024 to focus on its core running business, which will enhance resource allocation and strengthen its professional sports position. The company is expected to begin its DTC transformation in 2025, exploring more efficient and high-quality channel layouts, maintaining a "Buy" rating and profit forecasts for 2025-2027 [1] Group 1 - In Q3 2025, Xtep's main brand achieved a low single-digit year-on-year growth in total channel revenue, continuing the stable trend from Q2, with online sales outperforming offline sales and children's products outperforming adult products [2] - The running and outdoor product categories saw double-digit growth, while lifestyle products experienced slight fluctuations due to macroeconomic conditions. Over 60% of Xtep's brand products are functional, stabilizing the core business [2] Group 2 - Saucony brand experienced over 20% year-on-year growth in total channel revenue in Q3, with offline revenue increasing by over 30%. The brand opened 16 new stores, primarily in key business districts of first and second-tier cities, maintaining an annual store opening target of 30-50 [3] - Saucony's online business has been actively adjusted since Q2 to reduce low-priced products and tighten discounts, aiming to strengthen its high-end brand positioning for the Q4 sales season [3] Group 3 - Xtep's main brand maintained a healthy inventory level with a stock-to-sales ratio of 4-4.5 months and discount levels between 70-75%, reflecting good supply chain management and terminal sales efficiency [4] - Saucony's inventory and discount levels are also under control, allowing flexibility for Q4 promotional activities [4] Group 4 - Xtep is continuously optimizing its channel structure and upgrading store images, with over 70% of its new store formats being the 9th generation and leading stores. The company is accelerating its layout in shopping centers and outlet stores [5] - The outlet channel, represented by leading and selected outlets, has a significant area and is expected to contribute to offline sales growth, with plans to expand the number of stores to 70-100 by 2026 [5] Group 5 - The DTC transformation is progressing steadily, with plans to reclaim approximately 100 stores in Q4 and a total of 400 stores by the end of 2025, with related capital expenditures of about 400 million yuan, which will enhance long-term channel competitiveness [6]

Core Viewpoint - Xtep International is optimizing its multi-brand matrix by divesting its fashion sports brand in 2024, focusing on its core running business, and enhancing resource allocation. The company plans to initiate a DTC transformation in 2025, which is expected to solidify its position in the professional sports sector and maintain a "Buy" rating [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, Xtep's main brand achieved a low single-digit year-on-year growth in total channel revenue, consistent with Q2's performance, with online sales showing double-digit growth and children's products outperforming adult categories [2] - The net profit forecasts for Xtep are projected at 1.37 billion, 1.49 billion, and 1.6 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, corresponding to PE ratios of 11, 10, and 9 [1] Group 2: Brand and Product Development - Saucony brand experienced over 20% year-on-year growth in total channel revenue in Q3, with offline revenue increasing by over 30%. The brand opened 16 new stores, primarily in first and second-tier city core business districts, maintaining an annual store opening target of 30-50 [3] - Saucony is focusing on the running scene and expanding its apparel and OG series, receiving positive market feedback, and is confident in achieving over 30% growth for the year [3] Group 3: Inventory and Discount Management - Xtep's main brand maintained a healthy inventory turnover ratio of 4-4.5 months and discount levels between 70-75%, indicating effective supply chain management and terminal sales efficiency [4] - Saucony's inventory and discount levels are also within controllable ranges, allowing flexibility for promotions in Q4 [4] Group 4: Channel Innovation and Expansion - Xtep is continuously optimizing its channel structure, with over 70% of its stores upgraded to the new 9th generation and leading stores. The company is accelerating its presence in shopping centers and outlet stores [5] - The outlet channel, represented by leading and selected outlets, is expected to expand to 70-100 stores by 2026, aligning with positive market trends in outlet traffic and sales [5] Group 5: DTC Transformation - Xtep plans to reclaim approximately 100 stores in Q4, with a total of 400 stores by the end of 2025, involving a capital expenditure of around 400 million yuan. This move is expected to enhance the company's long-term channel competitiveness [6]