Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target PE of 10x for 2025 [4][5] Core Views - The company's main brand, Xtep, achieved high single-digit year-over-year (YoY) growth in Q4 2024, with retail discounts ranging between 70-75% and inventory turnover days around 4 months, indicating stable operations [3] - E-commerce sales grew over 20% YoY in Q4 2024, driven by product structure optimization and the "Double 11" shopping festival, while offline sales grew at a low single-digit rate [3] - Saucony, a sub-brand, saw a 50% YoY growth in Q4 2024 and over 60% growth for the full year, with potential for long-term scale expansion due to improved product mix and store optimization [9] - The company is expected to achieve over 20% YoY growth in net profit attributable to shareholders in 2024, supported by the successful divestment of the KP business [9] Financial Performance and Projections - Revenue is projected to decline by 7.2% YoY in 2024 but rebound with 11.4% and 11.6% growth in 2025 and 2026, respectively [10] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to grow by 20.5% YoY in 2024, followed by 11.9% and 12.5% growth in 2025 and 2026 [10] - Gross margin is forecasted to improve from 42.2% in 2023 to 44.7% in 2026, while net margin is expected to remain stable at around 9.4% from 2025 onwards [7] - ROE is projected to increase from 11.6% in 2023 to 12.2% in 2024, then stabilize at around 12% in the following years [10] Operational Highlights - The company optimized its offline store structure in 2024 by opening larger stores and closing smaller ones, with the proportion of ninth-generation stores gradually increasing [3] - Inventory levels remained healthy, with channel inventory turnover days at around 4 months by the end of Q4 2024, reflecting efficient retail operations and inventory management [9] - The company continued to enhance its e-commerce business by increasing the proportion of high-value-for-money products, contributing to strong online sales growth [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Xtep International (01368 HK) [1][6] Core Views - Xtep's main brand achieved high single-digit retail sales growth in Q4 and full year 2024, with online sales growing over 20% and offline sales growing low single-digit [2][3] - Saucony brand achieved over 60% growth in 2024, exceeding management guidance [2][3] - KP brand's divestiture is expected to enhance Xtep Group's profitability, with 2024 net profit target highly achievable [6] - 2024-2026 net profit forecast is adjusted to 1 25/14 0/15 6 billion yuan, representing year-over-year growth of 20 9%/12 5%/10 9% [6] Operational Performance - Xtep main brand's Q4 retail discount improved to 7-7 5折 compared to 7折 in the same period last year [3] - Year-end inventory-to-sales ratio improved to 4 months, down from 4-4 5 months in the same period last year [3] - Saucony achieved approximately 50% growth in Q4 2024 [3] - January trends show positive momentum with main brand achieving double-digit growth, partly driven by earlier Chinese New Year [3] Financial Projections - 2024-2026 revenue forecast: 13 738/14 902/16 196 billion yuan [7] - 2024-2026 net profit margin forecast: 9 1%/9 4%/9 6% [7] - 2024-2026 ROE forecast: 13 1%/13 8%/14 2% [7] - 2024-2026 PE ratio forecast: 11 3x/10 0x/9 0x [7] Valuation - Maintains reasonable valuation range of 6 1-6 6 HKD, corresponding to 11-12x 2025 PE [6] - Comparable company valuation shows Xtep trading at lower PE multiples than Anta and Li Ning [8] Strategic Focus - Company focuses on running category expertise, with main brand targeting mass market and Saucony targeting "dual elite" segment [6] - KP brand's divestiture expected to improve profitability, as it incurred annual operating losses of around 180 million yuan in 2022-2023 [6]

新品牌发展不及预期风险。近年户外热潮推动索康尼及迈乐等新品牌发展，热度下降等 因素均有可能导致新品牌发展速度不及预期。 在法律许可的情况下，本公司可能会持有本报告中提及公司所发行的证券并进行交易，也可能为这些公司提供或争取提供投资银行、财务顾问 和金融产品等各种金融服务。本公司将会在知晓范围内依法合规的履行信息披露义务。因此，投资者应当考虑到本公司及/或其相关人员可能存 在影响本报告观点客观性的潜在利益冲突，投资者请勿将本报告视为投资或其他决定的唯一参考依据。 投资评级说明 证券的投资评级：以报告日后的 6 个月内，证券相对于同期市场基准指数的涨跌幅为标准，定义如下： 买入：相对同期市场基准指数涨跌幅在 20％以上； 增持：相对同期市场基准指数涨跌幅在 5％～20％之间； 中性：相对同期市场基准指数涨跌幅在－5％～＋5％之间； 减持：相对同期市场基准指数涨跌幅低于-5％及以下。 无：由于我们无法获取必要的资料，或者公司面临无法预见结果的重大不确定性事件，或者其他原因，致使我们无法给出明确的投资评级。 行业的投资评级：以报告日后的 6 个月内，行业股票指数相对于同期市场基准指数的涨跌幅为标准，定义如下： 看好： ...

[Table_MainInfo] 公司研究/纺织与服装/服装与奢侈品 证券研究报告 特步国际（1368）公司公告点评 2024 年 11 月 06 日 | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------------------------------|--------------------| | 股票数据 | | | [Table_StockInfo] 11 月 05 日收盘价（港元） | 5.72 | | 52 周股价波动（港元） | 3.13-7.13 | | 总股本（百万股） | 2684 | | 总市值（百万港元） | 15350 | | 相关研究 | | | [ Ta b le _R e po r tIn fo ] | | | 《 主 品 牌 电 商 表 现 亮 眼 | ，专业运动收入高增 | | 72%》2024.08.25 | | | 《 24Q2 主品牌折扣库存改善》 《 流水增长稳健，库存周转同比改善》 | 2024.07.24 | | 24Q1 | | | 2024.04.25 市场表现 | | [Table_Quote ...

%% %% 丨证券研究报告丨 港股研究丨公司点评丨特步国际（1368.HK） [Table_Title] 流水稳健增长，库存&折扣健康 | --- | --- | --- | |----------|-------|-------| | | | | | 报告要点 | | | 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 于旭辉 柯睿 SAC：S0490518020002 SFC：BUU942 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 特步国际（1368.HK） cjzqdt11111 [Table_BaseData] 当前股价（HKD） 5.76 注：股价为 2024 年 10 月 31 日收盘价 [Table_Title2] 流水稳健增长，库存&折扣健康 港股研究丨公司点评 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 公司发布 2024Q3 零售数据，特步主品牌流水同比中单位数增长，索康尼流水同比超 50%增 长，流水表现符合预期。 事件评论 ⚫ 主品牌稳健增长，索康尼增长亮眼。特步 Q3 全渠道流水中单增长，线下客流&连带等多 指标均有所拖累。月度趋势来看预计 7-9 月均有所承压，但 10 月换季等影响催化流水恢 ...

2024 年 10 月 28 日 耐用消费品及服装: 中性 证券研究报告 / 公司更新报告 特步国际 (1368 HK, 买入, 目标价: HK$6.95) 买入 措有 塑出 10 月 MTD 流水低双位数增长，有望完成全年指引 | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------------------------|--------------------| | 目标价 : HK$6.95 | 当前股价 : HK$5.79 | | 股价上行 / 下行空间 | +20% | | 52 周最高/最低价 (HK$) | 7.41/3.61 | | 市值 (US$mn) | 1,970 | | 当前发行数量 (百万股) | 2,645 | | 三个月平均日交易額 (US$mn) 流通盘占比 (%) | 7 100 | | 主要股东 (%) | | | 群成投资 按 2024 年 10 月 28 日收市数据 资料来源: FactSet | 47 | 股价表现 | --- | |-----------------| | | | 评级 | | 目标价 (H ...

港股公司报告 | 公司点评 | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------|---------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

特步国际（01368.HK） 服装家纺 证券研究报告/公司点评报告 2024 年 10 月 24 日 主品牌 10 月流水提速，索康尼延续高增 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|--------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

港股通 证券研究报告 特步国际 (1368 HK) 索康尼表现靓丽，KP 剥离进展顺利 2024年10月24日│中国香港 服装 公司公布 2024 年三季度的运营情况：特步主品牌（包括线上和线下渠道） 流水同比中单位数增长，环比 2Q24 10%的增长，增速有所放缓主因三季度 客流和连带率承压所致。索康尼 3Q24 流水同比+50%，延续强劲表现。全 年看，我们预计随着 KP 的剥离以及费用的控制，公司利润增速有望快于收 入。中长期看，公司主品牌持续强化跑步矩阵，专业运动品牌打造第二增长 曲线，维持"买入"评级。 电商和儿童驱动主品牌增长，运营保持稳健水平 3Q24 主品牌整体稳健增长，主要受客流的影响，线下流水同比持平微增， 而线上和儿童业务分别同比实现高双位数增长/低双位数增长，为主品牌增 长的主要驱动力。此外，三季度主品牌营运情况良好，其零售折扣约 75 折， 库销比约 4 个月，环比 2Q24 保持平稳水平。展望四季度，受益于国庆假期 和换季需求，我们预计 10 月主品牌恢复较好的增长势头，考虑到大促活动 对四季度线上销售影响较大，我们建议关注"双十一"的品牌表现。 索康尼流水同比+50%，KP 剥离 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][3] Core Views - The company's Q3 2024 operating data met expectations, with the main brand's retail sales growing at a mid-single-digit rate year-over-year (YoY) [2] - The children's wear segment outperformed adult wear, growing at a low double-digit rate [2] - Saucony's retail sales grew over 50% YoY in Q3 2024, continuing its strong performance [2] - Online sales growth outperformed offline sales, with e-commerce growing at a double-digit rate [2] - Retail sales improved in Q4, driven by the National Day holiday and Double Eleven shopping festival, with both online and offline channels achieving double-digit growth [2] - The company's inventory levels remained healthy, with a stock-to-sales ratio of around 4 months as of September 2024 [2] - The main brand's discount rate remained stable at 7.5% off, indicating robust operational quality [2] - The company is confident in achieving over 50% growth in its professional sports segment for the full year [2] - The K&P brand's divestment is expected to be completed by the end of November 2024, with a special dividend to be distributed [3] - The company expects profit certainty to be higher than revenue certainty in Q4 due to cost control measures [3] - The company has slightly lowered its revenue and profit forecasts for 2024-2026, with expected net profits of 1.24/1.39/1.51 billion RMB, respectively [3] Financial Performance - The company's revenue for 2024E is projected to be 13.346 billion RMB, with a YoY decline of 7% [4] - Net profit for 2024E is expected to be 1.24 billion RMB, a 20% YoY increase [4] - Gross margin is expected to remain stable at 45% from 2024E to 2026E [4] - In H1 2024, the company's revenue grew 10.4% YoY to 7.2 billion RMB, while net profit grew 13% YoY to 750 million RMB [6] - The sales expense ratio increased by 0.3 percentage points to 23.5% in H1 2024, while the management expense ratio rose by 0.2 percentage points to 10.4% [7] - Gross margin improved by 3.1 percentage points to 46.0% in H1 2024, with net margin increasing to 10.4% [7] Retail Performance - In Q3 2024, the main brand's retail sales grew at a mid-single-digit rate, with children's wear growing at a low double-digit rate [2] - Saucony's retail sales grew over 50% YoY in Q3 2024 [2] - Online sales grew at a double-digit rate, while offline sales saw slight growth due to weather-related disruptions [2] - Retail sales improved in Q4, with double-digit growth during the National Day holiday and Double Eleven shopping festival [2] - The company's stock-to-sales ratio remained stable at around 4 months as of September 2024 [2] - The main brand's discount rate remained at 7.5% off, consistent with previous quarters [2] Strategic Focus - The company is focusing on its core running business and optimizing its multi-brand portfolio [3] - The divestment of the K&P brand is expected to improve profitability, with the brand's impact on 2024 performance limited to a Q1 loss of $9 million [3] - The company plans to expand Saucony's presence in high-tier cities, with a new concept store opening in Shenzhen in September 2024 [2] - The company is confident in achieving over 50% growth in its professional sports segment for the full year [2]