2024 年 10 月 28 日 耐用消费品及服装: 中性 证券研究报告 / 公司更新报告 特步国际 (1368 HK, 买入, 目标价: HK$6.95) 买入 措有 塑出 10 月 MTD 流水低双位数增长，有望完成全年指引 | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------------------------|--------------------| | 目标价 : HK$6.95 | 当前股价 : HK$5.79 | | 股价上行 / 下行空间 | +20% | | 52 周最高/最低价 (HK$) | 7.41/3.61 | | 市值 (US$mn) | 1,970 | | 当前发行数量 (百万股) | 2,645 | | 三个月平均日交易額 (US$mn) 流通盘占比 (%) | 7 100 | | 主要股东 (%) | | | 群成投资 按 2024 年 10 月 28 日收市数据 资料来源: FactSet | 47 | 股价表现 | --- | |-----------------| | | | 评级 | | 目标价 (H ...

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特步国际（01368.HK） 服装家纺 证券研究报告/公司点评报告 2024 年 10 月 24 日 主品牌 10 月流水提速，索康尼延续高增 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|--------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

港股通 证券研究报告 特步国际 (1368 HK) 索康尼表现靓丽，KP 剥离进展顺利 2024年10月24日│中国香港 服装 公司公布 2024 年三季度的运营情况：特步主品牌（包括线上和线下渠道） 流水同比中单位数增长，环比 2Q24 10%的增长，增速有所放缓主因三季度 客流和连带率承压所致。索康尼 3Q24 流水同比+50%，延续强劲表现。全 年看，我们预计随着 KP 的剥离以及费用的控制，公司利润增速有望快于收 入。中长期看，公司主品牌持续强化跑步矩阵，专业运动品牌打造第二增长 曲线，维持"买入"评级。 电商和儿童驱动主品牌增长，运营保持稳健水平 3Q24 主品牌整体稳健增长，主要受客流的影响，线下流水同比持平微增， 而线上和儿童业务分别同比实现高双位数增长/低双位数增长，为主品牌增 长的主要驱动力。此外，三季度主品牌营运情况良好，其零售折扣约 75 折， 库销比约 4 个月，环比 2Q24 保持平稳水平。展望四季度，受益于国庆假期 和换季需求，我们预计 10 月主品牌恢复较好的增长势头，考虑到大促活动 对四季度线上销售影响较大，我们建议关注"双十一"的品牌表现。 索康尼流水同比+50%，KP 剥离 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][3] Core Views - The company's Q3 2024 operating data met expectations, with the main brand's retail sales growing at a mid-single-digit rate year-over-year (YoY) [2] - The children's wear segment outperformed adult wear, growing at a low double-digit rate [2] - Saucony's retail sales grew over 50% YoY in Q3 2024, continuing its strong performance [2] - Online sales growth outperformed offline sales, with e-commerce growing at a double-digit rate [2] - Retail sales improved in Q4, driven by the National Day holiday and Double Eleven shopping festival, with both online and offline channels achieving double-digit growth [2] - The company's inventory levels remained healthy, with a stock-to-sales ratio of around 4 months as of September 2024 [2] - The main brand's discount rate remained stable at 7.5% off, indicating robust operational quality [2] - The company is confident in achieving over 50% growth in its professional sports segment for the full year [2] - The K&P brand's divestment is expected to be completed by the end of November 2024, with a special dividend to be distributed [3] - The company expects profit certainty to be higher than revenue certainty in Q4 due to cost control measures [3] - The company has slightly lowered its revenue and profit forecasts for 2024-2026, with expected net profits of 1.24/1.39/1.51 billion RMB, respectively [3] Financial Performance - The company's revenue for 2024E is projected to be 13.346 billion RMB, with a YoY decline of 7% [4] - Net profit for 2024E is expected to be 1.24 billion RMB, a 20% YoY increase [4] - Gross margin is expected to remain stable at 45% from 2024E to 2026E [4] - In H1 2024, the company's revenue grew 10.4% YoY to 7.2 billion RMB, while net profit grew 13% YoY to 750 million RMB [6] - The sales expense ratio increased by 0.3 percentage points to 23.5% in H1 2024, while the management expense ratio rose by 0.2 percentage points to 10.4% [7] - Gross margin improved by 3.1 percentage points to 46.0% in H1 2024, with net margin increasing to 10.4% [7] Retail Performance - In Q3 2024, the main brand's retail sales grew at a mid-single-digit rate, with children's wear growing at a low double-digit rate [2] - Saucony's retail sales grew over 50% YoY in Q3 2024 [2] - Online sales grew at a double-digit rate, while offline sales saw slight growth due to weather-related disruptions [2] - Retail sales improved in Q4, with double-digit growth during the National Day holiday and Double Eleven shopping festival [2] - The company's stock-to-sales ratio remained stable at around 4 months as of September 2024 [2] - The main brand's discount rate remained at 7.5% off, consistent with previous quarters [2] Strategic Focus - The company is focusing on its core running business and optimizing its multi-brand portfolio [3] - The divestment of the K&P brand is expected to improve profitability, with the brand's impact on 2024 performance limited to a Q1 loss of $9 million [3] - The company plans to expand Saucony's presence in high-tier cities, with a new concept store opening in Shenzhen in September 2024 [2] - The company is confident in achieving over 50% growth in its professional sports segment for the full year [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1][3]. Core Insights - The main brand's Q3 revenue met expectations, with healthy operational metrics, and the performance of Saucony was particularly strong, leading to optimistic expectations for Q4 [3]. - The company maintains its net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 at 1.26 billion, 1.43 billion, and 1.60 billion RMB, corresponding to PE ratios of 10, 9, and 8 times respectively [3]. - The main brand's Q3 revenue showed a single-digit year-on-year growth, with offline sales slightly increasing and e-commerce sales growing at a high double-digit rate [3]. - Saucony's Q3 revenue grew by over 50% year-on-year, continuing its rapid growth trajectory [3]. - The overall consumption environment remains under pressure, with a slight decline in foot traffic and single-store performance for the main brand's offline stores compared to H1 [3]. - The company plans to maintain its store count for 2024, with upgrades to store image and size expected to enhance average store efficiency [3]. - There is an expectation for double-digit revenue growth for the main brand in October, driven by strong performance during the National Day holiday and the upcoming Double Eleven sales [3]. - The company anticipates a high probability of 50% year-on-year revenue growth for Saucony in 2024 [3]. Financial Summary - The company reported revenues of 14.35 billion RMB for 2023, with a projected growth of 4% for 2024 [5]. - The net profit for 2023 was 1.03 billion RMB, with an expected growth of over 20% for 2024 [5]. - The PE ratio for 2024 is projected at 10.0, decreasing to 8.6 by 2026 [5].

证券研究报告·海外公司点评·纺织及服饰(HS) 特步国际（01368.HK） 24Q3 流水点评：主品牌流水环比放缓、折扣 及库存控制较好，索康尼延续高增 2024 年 10 月 24 日 买入（维持） | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------|--------|----------|----------|----------|----------| | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 12930 | 14346 | 14957 | 15660 | 17520 | | 同比 (%) | 29.13 | 10.94 | 4.26 | 4.70 | 11.87 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 921.69 | 1,030.01 | 1,235.47 | 1,416.71 | 1,647.83 | | 同比 (%) | 1.47 | 11.75 | 19.95 | 14.67 | 16.31 | ...

隐证券 纺织服饰/服装家纺 2024Q3 索康尼表现亮眼，主品牌经营指标稳健 特步国际（01368.HK） 2024 年 10 月 23 日 ——港股公司信息更新报告 投资评级：买入（维持） | --- | --- | |-------------------------|-------------| | 日期 | 2024/10/22 | | 当前股价 ( 港元 ) | 5.710 | | 一年最高最低 ( 港元 ) | 7.410/3.610 | | 总市值 ( 亿港元 ) | 151.00 | | 流通市值 ( 亿港元 ) | 151.00 | | 总股本 ( 亿股 ) | 26.45 | | 流通港股 ( 亿股 ) | 26.45 | | 近 3 个月换手率 (%) | 24.54 | 股价走势图 -72% -48% -24% 0% 24% 48% 2023-10 2024-02 2024-06 特步国际 恒生指数 数据来源：聚源 相关研究报告 《2024H1 电商及童装亮眼，上调专业 运动分部指引—港股公司信息更新报 告》-2024.8.22 《2024Q2 电商表现亮眼，高质量运营 下流水稳健增长 ...

证券研究报告 | 公司点评 gszqdatemark 2024 10 23 年 月 日 特步国际（01368.HK） 流水稳健增长，库存健康，KP 剥离进度顺利推进 特步品牌 2024Q3 流水增长中单位数，运营稳健。公司发布 2024 年 Q3 经营情况公告，特步品牌流水同比增长中单位数，Q3 零售折扣水平约 75 折，截至 Q3 末渠道存货周转天数在 4 个月左右，运营质量稳健，整体表 现符合预期。10 月份以来受益于消费环境边际改善以及假期消费带动，我 们预计公司终端流水增速或在双位数，对比 Q3 有所提升。 ➢ 产品优化助力电商业务增速优异，线下渠道流水受限于客流波动预 计持平。2024Q3 特步品牌终端流水同比增长中单位数，分渠道来看： 我们预计电商渠道流水增速亮眼，增速预计在高双位数，线上渠道的 快速增长一方面系电商消费环境改善，另一方面系公司产品结构优 化，2024 年以来公司线上高性价比产品逐步丰富；我们预计 Q3 线 下渠道流水持平略增，受限于消费环境波动，客流表现有所波动。 ➢ 渠道库存保持在健康水位，终端折扣环比 Q2 持平。根据公司披露， 2024Q3 终端折扣整体在 75 折左右，同 ...

公司研究·海外公司快评 纺织服饰·服装家纺 投资评级：优于大市（维持） 证券分析师： 丁诗洁 0755-81981391 dingshijie@guosen.com.cn 执证编码：S0980520040004 证券分析师： 刘佳琪 010-88005446 liujiaqi@guosen.com.cn 执证编码：S0980523070003 特步国际（01368.HK） 第三季度主品牌流水增长中单位数，索康尼增长超 50% 优于大市 事项： 公司公告：2024 年 10 月 23 日，公司发布 2024 年第三季度营运状况，第三季度特步主品牌线上线下全渠 道零售销售流水同比增长中单位数，零售折扣 7.5 折，渠道库销比 4 个月。索康尼品牌线上线下全渠道零 售销售流水同比增长超过 50%。 国信纺服观点： 1、第三季度特步主品牌流水增长中单位数；零售折扣 7.5 折，库销比 4 个月，折扣与库销比环比稳定、 同比改善；索康尼增长超过 50%。 2、风险提示：消费需求复苏不及预期；品牌形象受损；品牌恶性竞争加剧；市场的系统性风险； 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 证券研究报告 | 2024年10 ...