Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The main brand of the company has shown steady growth in Q3 2025, while the subsidiary brand, Saucony, continues to maintain rapid growth [7] - The company has a healthy inventory turnover of four to four and a half months, indicating stable retail sales despite external factors [7] - The company is expanding its presence in the outlet channel and overseas markets, enhancing its competitive edge [7] - The company is focusing on product iteration and category expansion to drive growth in high-end brands [7] - Long-term growth potential is supported by continuous R&D investment and a strong brand image [7] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2025 are estimated at 14,486.83 million RMB, with a year-on-year growth rate of 6.70% [6] - Net profit for 2025 is projected to be 1,384.97 million RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 11.84% [6] - Earnings per share for 2025 is expected to be 0.49 RMB [6] - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 13.73% in 2025 [6] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to be 10.75 in 2025 [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [8]. Core Insights - The retail data for the company remains stable, with the main brand's revenue showing low single-digit growth year-on-year. Discounts range from 7% to 75%, and the inventory turnover ratio is healthy at 4 to 4.5 months. The subsidiary brand, Saucony, has seen revenue growth exceeding 20% year-on-year [2][6]. - The main brand's growth is primarily driven by the running category, while Saucony is expected to return to high growth after a short-term adjustment. Offline channels are anticipated to maintain high growth, while e-commerce growth is slightly weaker due to the company's strategy of reducing low-priced products. Future growth for Saucony is expected to accelerate as the company focuses on opening stores in key urban areas and enhancing brand presence [8]. - Overall, the running trend supports steady growth for the main brand, and despite short-term adjustments for Saucony, the long-term growth potential remains strong. The company is projected to achieve net profits of 1.41 billion, 1.58 billion, and 1.75 billion yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, corresponding to price-to-earnings ratios of 10, 9, and 8 times respectively [8][10]. Summary by Sections Retail Performance - The main brand's revenue growth is low single-digit year-on-year, with a stable discount range and healthy inventory turnover [2][6]. Saucony Brand Performance - Saucony's revenue growth exceeds 20% year-on-year, with expectations for future acceleration in growth as the brand focuses on key urban markets [8]. Financial Projections - Projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.41 billion, 1.58 billion, and 1.75 billion yuan, with corresponding P/E ratios of 10, 9, and 8 times [10].

Core Viewpoint - In Q3 2025, the main brand Xtep experienced low single-digit revenue growth, with online sales continuing to outpace offline, and children's products growing faster than adult products [1][2][3] - The terminal discount level remained stable at 7-7.5, and the inventory turnover days were around 4-4.5 months, indicating a healthy inventory level [1][2] - The Saucony brand saw over 20% revenue growth, with offline sales maintaining a strong growth momentum of over 30% [1][3] Group 1: Xtep Main Brand Performance - In Q3 2025, Xtep's retail sales showed low single-digit growth, with online sales maintaining double-digit growth while offline sales remained flat [2][3] - The children's segment outperformed the adult segment, with the children's brand upgraded to "Xtep Youth" in August, promoting the concept of "scientific sports equipment for growth" [2] - The company is focusing on upgrading store images, with over 70% of new image stores, and plans to launch 70-100 selected outlet stores in the next two years [2][3] Group 2: Saucony Brand Performance - Saucony's revenue grew over 20% in Q3 2025, with offline sales expected to grow over 30% [1][3] - The company opened multiple high-quality offline stores in key urban areas, adding 16 new stores in Q3, bringing the total to over 170 stores by the end of Q3 [3] - The e-commerce channel is undergoing adjustments, focusing on reducing low-priced and heavily discounted products, with plans to open 30-50 new offline stores in the fourth quarter [3][4] Group 3: Future Outlook - For Q4 2025, Xtep plans to reclaim distribution rights for approximately 400-500 stores by mid-2026, which is expected to impact revenue in the short term but enhance brand influence and operational quality in the long term [4] - Saucony aims to maintain high growth momentum through brand promotion and product expansion, with an expected improvement in profit margins [4] - The company maintains a profit growth guidance of over 10% for 2025, with projected revenues of 143.2 billion, 152.6 billion, and 163.7 billion for 2025-2027, reflecting year-on-year growth of 5.5%, 6.6%, and 7.2% respectively [4]

Core Viewpoint - CITIC Construction Investment maintains a "Buy" rating for Xtep International (01368), projecting revenue growth from 2025 to 2027 at 143.2 billion, 152.6 billion, and 163.7 billion CNY, with year-on-year increases of 5.5%, 6.6%, and 7.2% respectively, and net profit growth of 10.5%, 11.1%, and 10.0% over the same period [1] Group 1 - In Q3 2025, Xtep's main brand retail sales experienced low single-digit growth, with retail discount levels around 70-75% and inventory turnover of approximately 4-4.5 months [1][2] - The report indicates that online sales growth continues to outpace offline, with children's products growing faster than adult products [2] - The company is focusing on upgrading offline store images and expanding outlet layouts while continuing to push the full product line for running [2] Group 2 - The Saucony brand saw retail sales growth exceeding 20% in Q3 2025, with offline sales maintaining a strong growth momentum of over 30% [2] - As of the end of September, Saucony had over 170 stores, an increase of nearly 30 stores since the beginning of the year [2] - Looking ahead to Q4 2025, Xtep plans to reclaim distribution rights for approximately 400-500 Xtep stores in H2 2025 and 2026, with an expected short-term impact on revenue [2]

Core Viewpoint - CITIC Securities maintains a "Buy" rating for Xtep International (01368), projecting revenue growth from 2025 to 2027 at 143.2 billion, 152.6 billion, and 163.7 billion yuan, with year-on-year increases of 5.5%, 6.6%, and 7.2% respectively, and net profit growth of 10.5%, 11.1%, and 10.0% [1] Group 1 - In Q3 2025, Xtep's main brand retail sales experienced low single-digit growth, with retail discount levels around 70-75% and inventory turnover of approximately 4-4.5 months [2] - The report indicates that online sales growth continues to outpace offline, with children's products growing faster than adult products [2] - The company is focusing on enhancing its running product line and upgrading store images in offline channels while emphasizing outlet store expansion [2] Group 2 - The Saucony brand saw retail sales growth exceeding 20% in Q3 2025, with offline sales maintaining a strong growth rate of over 30% [2] - As of the end of September, Saucony had over 170 stores, an increase of nearly 30 stores since the beginning of the year [2] - Looking ahead to Q4 2025, Xtep plans to reclaim distribution rights for approximately 400-500 Xtep stores in H2 2025 and 2026, which is expected to have a short-term impact on revenue [2]

Core Viewpoint - The online platform for the sports and outdoor industry has accelerated growth in Q3, with a divergence in pricing trends, where high-end segments and new IPs coexist with price reductions in classic mass-market products. Brands that can meet new niche demands or lead fashion trends are likely to achieve both sales and profit growth [1] Group 1: Q3 Performance Insights - Q3 showed a recovery in growth with an increase in penetration rates, particularly in footwear, with overall sales value up by 6.8%, sales volume up by 4.4%, and average price up by 2.6%. The outdoor category experienced double-digit growth with sales value up by 13.8%, sales volume up by 9.8%, and average price up by 3.6% [2] - The sports apparel category saw double-digit sales growth, while footwear sales growth turned positive, with running shoes accelerating to high double-digit growth, whereas basketball shoes experienced a larger decline [2] Group 2: Brand Performance - Nike is undergoing significant adjustment pains, with a sales decline of 12.4% year-on-year and a market share drop of 1.9 percentage points to 8.7%. However, its apparel segment saw slight growth, and running shoes grew by 19.3%, while basketball shoes and lifestyle shoes saw declines of 35% and 17%, respectively [3] - Adidas achieved a substantial sales increase of 13% despite a slight decrease in average price, gaining 0.5 percentage points in market share to 8.1%, driven by strong growth in its Trefoil apparel line and double-digit growth in running shoes [3] Group 3: Domestic Brand Dynamics - Anta's running shoe matrix has shown significant effectiveness, with a narrowing decline in lifestyle shoes. Li Ning maintained stable market share, with new products driving average price growth against the trend, and running shoes growing over 30% [4] - Xtep's market share slightly increased, with running shoes growing at 19%, while 361 Degrees also saw a slight market share increase, driven by its professional matrix, although basketball shoes continued to decline [4] Group 4: Market Trends and Recommendations - The overall growth potential in the sports and outdoor sector remains strong, with a clear trend of polarization in market structure. The growth comparison shows that sports apparel outperforms sports shoes, and running shoes outperform other types of sports shoes [5] - Recommended stocks include Li Ning for its strong new product capabilities, Anta for its multi-brand matrix advantage, and Xtep and 361 Degrees for their sustained growth driven by professional running products. Additionally, core retailers benefiting from international brand new product cycles, such as Tmall, and suppliers like Shenzhou International and Huali Group are also suggested for attention [6]

Group 1 - The report highlights a potential shift in market style towards "profit quality + valuation safety" large-cap blue chips in Q4, driven by conservative funding behavior and policy expectations [1][20][21] - It notes that leading industries are concentrated in financial, stable, and cyclical sectors, reflecting a decrease in investor risk appetite as they seek to lock in annual gains [1][21] - The report suggests that low-valuation sectors may have switching potential, but emphasizes that mere low valuation may not sustain a continuous market rally without policy catalysts and economic data improvement [1][21] Group 2 - The report indicates an upward trend in industries such as coal, electronics, home appliances, automotive, and environmental protection, while sectors like oil and petrochemicals, machinery, food and beverage, banking, real estate, public utilities, and retail are trending downward [22][23] - It predicts that industries such as commercial vehicles, automotive parts, automation equipment, and engineering machinery will perform well in the coming weeks [22][23] - The report identifies three main investment directions: breakthroughs in technology AI, economic recovery with a focus on strong performers, and the continued rise of undervalued sectors [24][25] Group 3 - The report discusses Longbai Group's acquisition of Venator UK, which is expected to enhance the global competitiveness of China's titanium dioxide industry [7] - The acquisition will increase Longbai Group's total capacity to 1.66 million tons, with chloride process capacity rising to 810,000 tons, allowing for better market access and reduced anti-dumping tax exposure [7] - The report notes that Longbai's titanium dioxide segment generated $1.18 billion in revenue in 2023, a 26% year-over-year decline due to weak demand and price drops [7] Group 4 - The report on the food and beverage sector indicates that the market atmosphere during the "Double Festival" was relatively flat, with traditional peak season effects weakening [9] - It mentions that while terminal sales showed a mild recovery, channel profits are narrowing, and inventory levels among distributors remain high [9] - The report anticipates that as Q3 earnings are disclosed, risks may be fully released, potentially leading to a recovery in sector sentiment [9]

Core Insights - The main brand of the company showed stable performance in Q3 2025, with a low single-digit year-on-year growth in overall channel revenue, consistent with Q2's performance, meeting expectations. Online sales outperformed offline, maintaining double-digit growth, while children's products outperformed adult products [1][2] - The Saucony brand experienced rapid growth, with over 20% year-on-year growth in overall channel revenue in Q3, and offline revenue increasing by over 30%. The company opened 16 new stores, primarily in key business districts of first and second-tier cities, maintaining an annual store opening target of 30-50 [1][2] Revenue and Inventory Management - The main brand's inventory turnover ratio was between 4-4.5 months in Q3, with discount levels maintained at 7-7.5%, indicating healthy inventory management and low discount pressure. Saucony's inventory and discount levels were also within controllable ranges, allowing flexibility for Q4 promotions [2] - The company is continuously innovating its channel strategy, increasing its presence in outlet formats. The new store formats, including the 9th generation stores and leading stores, now account for over 70% of the total store count, with a focus on high-end outlet malls [2] Strategic Initiatives - The company is optimizing its multi-brand matrix by planning to divest its fashion sports brand in 2024, focusing on core running business to enhance resource allocation. The DTC transformation is set to begin in 2025, aiming for a more efficient and high-quality channel layout [3] - The company plans to reclaim approximately 100 stores in Q4, with a total of 400 stores by the end of 2025, involving a capital expenditure of around 400 million yuan. This move is expected to enhance long-term channel competitiveness and enable the company to respond quickly to changes in terminal demand [2][3]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported steady operational performance in Q3 2025 despite fluctuations in the retail environment, with the main brand's retail revenue showing low single-digit growth year-on-year, driven by functional products and strong sales in running and outdoor categories [1][2]. Group 1: Main Brand Performance - The main brand's retail revenue grew low single digits year-on-year, primarily driven by functional products, with double-digit growth in running and outdoor categories [1]. - Retail discounts for the main brand remained stable at 70-75%, indicating a consistent pricing strategy [1]. - Channel inventory turnover at the end of September was healthy, ranging from 4 to 4.5 months [1]. Group 2: Saucony Brand Growth - The Saucony brand experienced over 20% year-on-year growth in retail revenue, with offline sales increasing by over 30% and average store efficiency exceeding 400,000 yuan per month [2]. - The management plans to continue expanding offline channels and capitalize on online promotional events in Q4 2025, aiming for a 30%+ year-on-year revenue increase for Saucony [2]. - The brand opened 16 new stores in key commercial areas, bringing the total to over 170 stores by the end of September [2]. Group 3: Channel Transformation and Future Plans - The company is actively optimizing its offline channel strategy, planning to convert over 100 stores to a Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) model in Q4 2025 and 2026 [2]. - The company is accelerating its presence in shopping malls and outlet channels, with plans to open 70-100 selected outlet stores between 2025 and 2026 [2]. - Current monthly sales for opened outlet stores have reached over 1 million yuan [2]. Group 4: Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company maintains its EPS forecasts for 2025 and 2026 at 0.50 and 0.55 yuan, respectively [2]. - The current stock price corresponds to 11 and 10 times the 2025 and 2026 P/E ratios, with a target price of 7.23 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 24.7% from the current price [2].

Core Insights - The company reported a low single-digit year-on-year growth in retail sales for its main brand in Q3 2025, with retail discount levels between 70% to 75% and inventory turnover ranging from four to four and a half months [1] - Saucony's retail sales, including both online and offline channels, exceeded 20% year-on-year growth [1] - The company has made significant strides in brand building, partnering with international events and athletes, and providing official gear for major competitions [1] Brand Development - The company has positioned itself as a global partner for the 12th World Games in 2025, providing exclusive official gear [1] - At the World Athletics Championships, athletes showcased the company's new racing shoes, highlighting its commitment to professional equipment [1] - The company continues to invigorate the Chinese marathon industry by supporting athletes' daily training with professional gear [1] Focus on Youth Development - The company has launched antibacterial children's pants to support young dancers and is collaborating with various authoritative institutions to promote scientific growth [1] - It has published the "Golden Blue Book on Youth Sports Growth" and established a "Youth Sports Growth Joint Laboratory" to implement its findings [1] - The company offers foot testing, equipment adaptation, and sports guidance services to promote scientific sports practices among families [1] Saucony's Growth - Saucony has become one of the top four running shoe brands globally, experiencing a turnaround since the company took over its operations in mainland China and Hong Kong in 2019 [2] - The brand has expanded its product lines and completed its offline presence in first-tier and core second-tier cities, with 155 stores in mainland China as of June [2] - Since re-launching its direct operations in China, Saucony has achieved a compound annual growth rate exceeding 100%, with revenue expected to surpass 1 billion RMB in 2024 [2] Financial Projections - The company maintains its profit forecasts for 2025-2027, expecting revenues of 14.6 billion RMB, 15.4 billion RMB, and 16.5 billion RMB respectively [2] - Projected net profits for the same period are 1.4 billion RMB, 1.5 billion RMB, and 1.7 billion RMB, with corresponding EPS of 0.50 RMB, 0.54 RMB, and 0.61 RMB [2] - The company maintains a "buy" rating based on these projections [2]