Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 95, representing a potential upside of 17% from the current price of HKD 81.1 [2][9][10] Core Insights - The report highlights positive updates on IBI363 and IBI343, with IBI363 showing an extended median progression-free survival (mPFS) of 9.3 months in the 3 mg/kg dose group for IO-treated squamous non-small cell lung cancer (sq-NSCLC), enhancing confidence in its development for lung squamous carcinoma [1][7][10] - The company is expected to initiate Phase 3 registration clinical trials for IBI363 in the 3L+ sq-NSCLC setting, with the 3 mg/kg dose likely to be used [7][10] - Financial projections indicate a significant increase in revenue and net profit over the next few years, with expected revenues of RMB 11.7 billion in 2025 and a net profit of RMB 433 million [9][10] Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 6.2 billion in 2023 to RMB 15.8 billion by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 36.2% [9][10] - The adjusted net profit is expected to turn positive in 2025, reaching RMB 1.03 billion by 2025 and RMB 2.66 billion by 2027 [9][10] - The report anticipates peak sales for IBI363 in China to reach approximately RMB 2.5 billion and for IBI343 to reach around RMB 1.5 billion, both on a risk-adjusted basis [10]

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index fell by 0.08% to close at 24,162.87 points on June 10, with a total net inflow of HKD 7.59 billion through the southbound trading channel [1] - The total trading volume for the southbound trading was HKD 124.87 billion, with a net buying amount of HKD 7.59 billion [1] - In the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect, the trading volume was HKD 79.04 billion with a net buying of HKD 4.80 billion, while in the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect, the trading volume was HKD 45.83 billion with a net buying of HKD 2.80 billion [1] Group 2 - In the top ten active stocks for the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect, Meituan-W had the highest trading amount of HKD 3.32 billion, followed by Xiaomi Group-W and Tencent Holdings with trading amounts of HKD 2.97 billion and HKD 2.34 billion respectively [2] - In terms of net buying, the highest was for CSPC Pharmaceutical Group with a net buying amount of HKD 368 million, while Tencent Holdings had the highest net selling amount of HKD 1.04 billion [2] - In the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect, Xiaomi Group-W led with a trading amount of HKD 1.72 billion, followed by Tencent Holdings and Meituan-W with trading amounts of HKD 1.64 billion and HKD 1.53 billion respectively [2]

Group 1 - Southbound funds net bought Hong Kong stocks worth 75.9 billion HKD on June 10, with notable net purchases in Meituan-W (9.85 billion HKD), CSPC Pharmaceutical Group (7.61 billion HKD), and Innovent Biologics (5.19 billion HKD) [1] - Tencent Holdings saw a significant net sell-off of 18.92 billion HKD, alongside other companies like Xiaomi Group-W (8.99 billion HKD) and Alibaba-W (7.71 billion HKD) [1] - Meituan has experienced 17 consecutive days of net buying, totaling 185.1264 billion HKD, while Tencent has faced 8 consecutive days of net selling, amounting to 99.4492 billion HKD [1] Group 2 - Tencent Holdings experienced a slight decline of 0.87% and repurchased 973,000 shares at a price range of 509-520 HKD per share, costing 500 million HKD [6] - Meituan's stock dropped by 2.7%, while JD.com's daily order volume for food delivery surpassed 25 million, capturing over 31% of the national market share [6] - Meituan launched its first AI Coding Agent product, NoCode, aimed at various applications including data analysis and product prototype design [7] Group 3 - Xiaomi Group's stock fell by 1.29%, and the company addressed rumors regarding a fatal accident during high-level driving training, stating that it would pursue legal action against those spreading false information [7]

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market experienced significant net inflows from northbound trading, with a total net buy of HKD 75.9 billion on June 10, 2023, indicating strong investor interest in certain stocks while others faced net sell-offs [1]. Group 1: Net Buying and Selling Stocks - Meituan-W (03690) led the net buying with HKD 17.86 billion, showing a net inflow of HKD 2.52 billion [2]. - Stone Pharmaceutical Group (01093) received a net buy of HKD 10.28 billion, with a net inflow of HKD 3.68 billion [2]. - Tencent (00700) faced the highest net sell of HKD 18.91 billion, with a net outflow of HKD 10.44 billion [2][6]. - Xiaomi Group-W (01810) saw a net sell of HKD 8.99 billion, with a net outflow of HKD 3.72 billion [2][7]. Group 2: Notable Company Insights - Meituan's strong merchant base and user reviews are expected to enhance its local business profitability, with new ventures likely to reduce losses [4]. - Stone Pharmaceutical Group is anticipated to secure significant overseas licensing deals, potentially exceeding USD 50 billion each, which could boost its revenue from business development [4]. - Xinda Biopharmaceutical (01801) is projected to benefit from positive clinical data and aims to have five drugs in global Phase III trials by 2030 [5]. - Crystal Technology Holdings (02228) is expected to experience short-term growth driven by policy incentives and long-term growth through customer retention and pipeline development [5]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The market's confidence in AI and cloud services has been shaken due to lower-than-expected capital expenditures and cloud revenue growth, but long-term potential remains positive as these technologies integrate into core business operations [6].

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index rose by 0.33%, gaining 79 points to reach 24,261 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 0.33% [1] - Insurance funds continue to increase holdings in Chinese bank stocks, with institutions indicating significant valuation recovery potential for Hong Kong bank stocks [1] - Bank of Communications (01988) rose by 3.47%, China Everbright Bank (06818) increased by 1.86%, and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (01398) gained 1.68% [1] - Three-Synch Pharmaceutical (01530) surged over 11% to a new high after reaching a significant licensing agreement with Pfizer, with strong ASCO data performance [1] - Innovent Biologics (01801) rose over 3.42%, with a year-to-date increase of over 120%, as Morgan Stanley anticipates further clinical catalysts to boost stock performance [1] - InnoCare Pharma-B (09606) increased by 13%, recently disclosing clinical data for DB-1310, attracting attention from international pharmaceutical giants [1] - China Rare Earth (00769) surged over 17%, following a 60% increase in trading volume, with positive signals for rare earth exports [1] - Pop Mart International (09992) rose by 2.47%, continuing to set historical highs, with its Labubu brand gaining global popularity [1] - Airline stocks continued their recent upward trend, benefiting from falling oil prices and the appreciation of the Renminbi, with institutions optimistic about airline profitability [1] - Air China (00753) rose by 4.5%, China Eastern Airlines (00670) increased by 4.42%, China Southern Airlines (01055) gained 4.18%, and BOC Aviation (02588) rose by 3.42% [1] Group 2 - Zhi Zi Cheng Technology (09911) rose over 7%, approaching historical highs, as the company plans to establish its global headquarters in Hong Kong, with institutions optimistic about future profit margin improvement [2] - Dekang Agriculture and Animal Husbandry (02419) increased by 4.97% to a new high, with the company reporting sales of 869,400 pigs in May, drawing market attention to industry capacity regulation progress [2] - Shide Global (00487) surged nearly 140%, as Australia’s Crown Resorts expressed interest in acquiring the property where the Sixteen Piers Casino is located [2]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The conference focuses on the innovative pharmaceutical sector, particularly the PD-(L)1 Plus treatment landscape, which is becoming a competitive area for overseas pharmaceutical companies [1][2]. Key Insights and Arguments - **Market Performance**: The pharmaceutical sector has shown strong performance recently, with significant volatility in innovative drugs. The core stocks have remained relatively stable during adjustments, driven by short-term trading dynamics [3]. - **Investment Outlook**: There is a strong bullish sentiment towards the innovative drug market, supported by solid underlying logic and clear industry trends. Key innovative drug targets, especially those with BD expectations or PD-1 Plus logic, are expected to perform well even during market corrections [3]. - **Investment Strategy**: Four main investment lines are recommended: Chinese supermarkets, generic drug opportunities, re-evaluation of small-cap pipelines, and large overseas pharmaceuticals. The strategy includes a combination of buying and random rotation for explosive growth [3]. - **Focus Areas**: Attention is drawn to the PD-1 Plus logic, particularly the potential upgrade from PD-1/VEGF to PD-1/IL-2. Upcoming opportunities related to the ADA conference in late June and advancements in medical technology (brain-computer interfaces, rehabilitation robots, AI in healthcare) are highlighted [3]. - **2025 Outlook**: Optimism prevails for the pharmaceutical sector, with expectations of a structural bull market. Focus areas include innovative drugs, new technologies, and industry restructuring [3]. Clinical Data Insights - **Sinda's PD-1/IL-2 (IBI363) Data**: - In non-small cell lung cancer (wild-type), the 1-1.5 mg/kg group showed an ORR of 25.9% and a median OS of 15.3 months, while the 3 mg/kg group had an ORR of 36.7% and a median PFS of 9.3 months, suggesting a potential median OS of 20-25+ months [3]. - In lung adenocarcinoma (wild-type), the low-dose group (0.6/1.5 mg/kg) had an ORR of 13.08% and a median PFS of 2.7 months, while the high-dose group (3 mg/kg) showed an ORR of 24% and a median PFS of 5.6 months, with a potential median OS of 25-30 months [3]. - The data indicates a high OS/PFS ratio, particularly in lung adenocarcinoma, which is rare and suggests a potential to limit metastatic tumors [3][4]. Competitive Landscape - **PD-1 Plus Market**: The PD-(L)1 market is substantial, estimated at around $40 billion, and is undergoing innovation. Major multinational corporations are actively investing in PD-1 Plus, contributing to rising upfront payments in business development [6]. - **Key Companies to Watch**: Notable companies in the PD-1 Plus space include Sinda, Hengrui, BeiGene, Kangfang Biotech, Rongchang Biotech, Aosaikang, and Zhimeng Junshi [6]. Sector-Specific Updates - **Innovative Drugs**: The index for innovative drugs rose by 0.34% last week, with a positive long-term outlook driven by clinical data and business development catalysts [6]. - **Generic Drugs**: The index increased by 1.69%, outperforming the pharmaceutical index. Key events include the approval of a compound release tablet by Shenda and the acceptance of a conditional listing application for a hemophilia drug [6]. - **Traditional Chinese Medicine & Pharmacies**: The Chinese medicine index rose by 0.39%, while pharmacies increased by 1.67%, with a focus on policy impacts and operational strategies [6]. - **Medical Devices**: The medical device index rose by 1.11%, with attention on equipment updates and market recovery [6]. - **Life Sciences**: The life sciences sector saw an average increase of 1.47%, with a focus on operational recovery and investment trends [6]. Additional Considerations - **Stock Selection**: Emphasis on companies with clean shareholding structures, low stock prices, and positive future operational trends. Monitoring monthly operational data and overall consumption data is crucial [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "OUTPERFORM" rating for Innovent Biologics with a target price of HK$90.10, up from a previous target of HK$62.50 [2][10]. Core Insights - Innovent Biologics showcased its strong oncology R&D capabilities at the 2025 ASCO Annual Meeting, with eight studies selected for oral presentation, highlighting the efficacy and safety of IBI363 and IBI343 in various cancer types [3][15]. - The data presented for IBI363 in IO-pretreated advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and colorectal cancer (CRC) supports its potential as a backbone therapy for future immuno-oncology treatments [4][16]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for Innovent Biologics are set at RMB 11.86 billion for 2025, with a growth rate of 26% compared to the previous year [10][13]. - The company is expected to turn profitable in 2025, achieving a net profit of RMB 384 million, with further growth anticipated in subsequent years [10][13]. Clinical Data Highlights - IBI363 monotherapy demonstrated a median progression-free survival (mPFS) of 9.3 months in advanced NSCLC patients, outperforming standard therapies [5][19]. - In patients with MSS-type colorectal cancer, IBI363 showed a median overall survival (mOS) of 16.1 months, significantly longer than the typical 9-10 months seen with current treatments [8][20]. - The efficacy of IBI363 in treating acral and mucosal melanoma was also notable, with a confirmed objective response rate (ORR) of 23.3% in IO-refractory patients [9][22]. Valuation and Estimates - The report employs a DCF model for valuation, estimating a share price of HK$90.10 based on projected cash flows from 2026 to 2037 [10][12]. - The gross profit margin is expected to remain high, around 84% in the coming years, indicating strong operational efficiency [10][13].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Positive" and is maintained [9] Core Insights - CEACAM5 is a member of the immunoglobulin superfamily adhesion molecules, highly expressed in various malignancies such as colorectal cancer, gastrointestinal cancer, and lung cancer, playing a significant role in tumor occurrence, invasion, and metastasis [2][6][18] - With the first clinical trial of SAR408701 by Sanofi entering Phase III, CEACAM5 ADC has become a popular development direction for targeted therapy drugs [2][28] - Currently, there are 8 CEACAM5-targeted ADCs in development globally, with 6 having entered clinical stages, showcasing a trend of diverse technological pathways and distinctive mechanisms among major pharmaceutical companies [2][8] Summary by Sections CEACAM5 as a Target - CEACAM5 is recognized as a high-expression tumor target, with its drug development potential accelerating due to the emergence of various therapeutic approaches, including ADCs, monoclonal antibodies, bispecific antibodies, CAR-T cell therapies, and therapeutic vaccines [6][28] CEACAM5 ADC Development - The heat around CEACAM5 ADC is rising, with the design of effective connections being key to overcoming challenges related to its weak internalization capacity [7][32] - The development focus is shifting towards optimizing linkers and payload systems to enhance stability and ensure precise release in the tumor microenvironment [7][32] Competitive Landscape - Major pharmaceutical companies are actively positioning themselves in the CEACAM5 ADC space, with notable developments from Sanofi, Merck, Innovent, and BeiGene, each showcasing unique design strategies and therapeutic potentials [8][50][58][61] - Sanofi's SAR408701, despite facing setbacks, continues to explore its potential in other cancer types, while Merck's M9140 is the first to utilize a topoisomerase I inhibitor in this context [8][50] Investment Perspective - The report suggests that the ongoing innovation in drug development, particularly in the context of CEACAM5-targeted therapies, presents significant investment opportunities, especially for companies with strong cash flows and innovative capabilities [64]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "OUTPERFORM" rating for Innovent Biologics with a target price of HK$90.10, up from a previous target of HK$62.50 [2][10]. Core Insights - Innovent Biologics showcased its strong oncology R&D capabilities at the 2025 ASCO Annual Meeting, with eight studies selected for oral presentation, highlighting the efficacy and safety of IBI363 and IBI343 in various cancer types [3][15][16]. - The data presented for IBI363 in advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and colorectal cancer (CRC) indicates its potential as a backbone therapy for next-generation immuno-oncology treatments, demonstrating robust tumor responses and long-term survival benefits [4][16]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for Innovent Biologics are set at RMB 11.86 billion for 2025, with a growth rate of 26% compared to the previous year, and expected to reach RMB 18.17 billion by 2027 [10][13]. - The company is projected to turn profitable in 2025, with a net profit of RMB 384 million, and further growth to RMB 1.77 billion by 2027 [10][13]. Clinical Data Highlights - IBI363 monotherapy showed a median progression-free survival (mPFS) of 9.3 months in advanced NSCLC, outperforming standard therapies [5][19]. - In MSS-type colorectal cancer patients, IBI363 demonstrated a median overall survival (mOS) of 16.1 months, significantly longer than the typical 9-10 months seen with current therapies [8][20]. - The efficacy of IBI363 in treating acral and mucosal melanoma was also notable, achieving a confirmed objective response rate (ORR) of 23.3% in a historically difficult-to-treat population [22].

Core Viewpoint - The current "medication" market rally is distinct from previous ones, with leading gains concentrated in innovative pharmaceutical companies, particularly strong performance in the Hong Kong stock market [1][2] Group 1: Market Performance - On June 9, both Hong Kong and A-share innovative pharmaceutical sectors saw significant gains, with the Hang Seng Innovative Drug ETF rising by 4.08% and the Hong Kong Stock Connect Medical ETF increasing by 4.25% [3] - Notable individual stock performances included 3SBio (01530.HK) reaching a peak of 22.5 HKD, just shy of its historical high, and a 260% increase in its stock price since February [3] - The A-share innovative drug index rose by 31.5% and the Hong Kong innovative drug index surged by 61.54% since April 9, with several stocks doubling in value [4] Group 2: Catalysts for Growth - The surge in innovative drug stocks is attributed to multiple factors, including recent approvals for 11 innovative drugs from eight companies and promising clinical data for major diseases [5] - The upcoming 2025 ASCO annual meeting will feature 73 research studies from China, a 30% increase from the previous year [5] Group 3: Long-term Positive Factors - Many leading companies are approaching breakeven points, with significant revenue growth reported, particularly for Ascentage Pharma (332.31% growth) [7][8] - The overseas licensing deals have seen substantial increases, with a record-breaking deal of 6.05 billion USD for 3SBio's drug rights to Pfizer [9] - The overall licensing-out transactions in the innovative drug sector have surged, with 41 transactions in Q1 2024 alone, totaling 36.93 billion USD [9] Group 4: Policy Support - Recent policy changes are favorable for innovative drug companies, including optimized centralized procurement policies and increased support for innovative drugs in government reports [10] - The 2024 government work report includes 38 new innovative drugs in the medical insurance catalog, the highest ever, with plans for further optimization in 2025 [10] Group 5: Market Outlook - The valuation of the pharmaceutical sector remains relatively safe compared to other growth industries, with a current TTM P/E ratio of 27.1 times [11] - Some analysts suggest that the innovative drug sector is transitioning from following to leading in the global market, indicating a new era for domestic innovation [11] - However, there are concerns about potential short-term volatility due to rapid price increases and profit-taking by investors [11]