Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the strong performance and strategic adjustments of Chow Tai Fook, a leading player in the gold and jewelry industry, with a focus on product upgrades and store optimization [1][2][3] Group 2 - Chow Tai Fook, established in 1929 and listed in Hong Kong in 2011, is the largest gold jewelry brand in China, with a target of 5,813 stores by the end of 2025 [1] - The company reported total revenue of HKD 89.656 billion and a net profit of HKD 5.916 billion for FY2025 [1] - The share of fixed-price products in retail sales has significantly increased, with a year-on-year growth of 59.6% in FY26Q3, raising its contribution from 29.4% in FY25Q3 to 40.1% [1] - The company has been closing underperforming stores since 2024, resulting in a net reduction of 228 stores by FY26Q3, down nearly 30% from a peak of 7,885 stores in FY24Q3 [2] - Overall retail sales grew by 18% year-on-year in FY26Q3, with mainland China and Hong Kong/Macau contributing 84.8% and 15.2% to total sales, respectively [2] - The company's gross margin has steadily increased, reaching 30.5% in FY26H1, while the expense ratio has improved from 21.2% in FY20 to 14.7% in FY26H1 [3] - The net profit margin has remained stable at around 6.5% [3] - Revenue forecasts for FY26-28 are projected at HKD 94.265 billion, HKD 99.234 billion, and HKD 105.213 billion, with expected growth rates of 5.14%, 5.27%, and 6.03% respectively [3] - Net profit forecasts for FY26-28 are HKD 8.873 billion, HKD 9.958 billion, and HKD 11.058 billion, with growth rates of 50.00%, 12.23%, and 11.04% respectively [3] - The company is rated as a "buy" due to its leading position in the industry and the high-end design and branding of its products [3]

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market experienced significant volatility on January 30, with gold prices dropping sharply, leading to multiple jewelry brands reducing their gold jewelry prices substantially [1] Price Adjustments - On January 30, several major gold jewelry brands announced significant price reductions for domestic 24K gold jewelry, with prices as follows: Chow Sang Sang at 1683 CNY per gram, Chow Tai Fook at 1685 CNY per gram, Lao Feng Xiang at 1668 CNY per gram, and Lao Miao Gold at 1668 CNY per gram [1]

老凤祥B 老凤祥 潮宏基 周大生 老铺黄金 分时图 日K线 周K线 月K线 3.49 -0.04 -1.05% 1.05% 0.77% 0.48% 0.09% 0.37% 0.65% 1.22% 3.49 3.50 3.51 3.53 3.54 3.55 3.57 09:30 10:30 11:30/13:00 14:00 15:00 0 1万 2万 3万 华夏时报记者 周梦婷 北京报道 国际现货黄金价格再攀新高。1月28日，伦敦金现再次大涨，突破5200美元/盎司，并在下午一度突破 5300美元/盎司。与此同时，国内黄金珠宝首饰企业们足金饰品价格也都涨到了1600元/克的新高度，像 老凤祥（600612）足金饰品已经达到1620元/克。然而，黄金高涨并没有浇灭消费者买金热情，1月28日 下午4点多，记者实地走访北京王府井（600859）附近金店发现，像周大福、周大生（002867）、潮宏 基（002345）等门店皆有顾客光顾，且店员也对记者表示，"这段时间黄金首饰产品卖的挺好的。" 过去两年中，现货黄金价格持续上涨，一度给周大福等以按克计价产品为主的金饰企业带来业绩压力。 随着金价上涨逐渐常态化，如何实现可 ...

证券研究报告·海外公司研究简报·专业零售(HS) 周大福（01929.HK） 黄金珠宝百年龙头品牌，战略转型+产品升级 开启成长新篇章 买入（首次） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | FY2024A | FY2025A | FY2026E | FY2027E | FY2028E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万港元） | 108,713 | 89,656 | 94,265 | 99,234 | 105,213 | | 同比(%) | 14.82 | (17.53) | 5.14 | 5.27 | 6.03 | | 归母净利润（百万港元） | 6,499 | 5,916 | 8,873 | 9,958 | 11,058 | | 同比(%) | 20.71 | (8.98) | 50.00 | 12.23 | 11.04 | | EPS-最新摊薄（港元/股） | 0.66 | 0.60 | 0.90 | 1.01 | 1.12 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 20.43 | 22.44 | 14.96 | 13.33 | 12 ...

证券研究报告·海外公司研究简报·专业零售(HS) [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 [Table_Summary] 投资要点 2026 年 01 月 29 日 证券分析师 吴劲草 执业证书：S0600520090006 wujc@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 郗越 执业证书：S0600524080008 周大福（01929.HK） 黄金珠宝百年龙头品牌，战略转型+产品升级 开启成长新篇章 买入（首次） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | FY2024A | FY2025A | FY2026E | FY2027E | FY2028E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万港元） | 108,713 | 89,656 | 94,265 | 99,234 | 105,213 | | 同比(%) | 14.82 | (17.53) | 5.14 | 5.27 | 6.03 | | 归母净利润（百万港元） | 6,499 | 5,916 | 8,873 | 9,958 | 11,058 | | 同比(%) | ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for future performance [1]. Core Insights - Chow Tai Fook is a leading brand in the gold and jewelry industry with a rich history, established in 1929 and listed in Hong Kong in 2011. The company is the largest gold jewelry brand in China, with a total of 5,813 stores as of the end of FY26Q3 [7][8]. - The company has shown significant improvement in overall performance, with a retail revenue growth of 18% year-on-year in FY26Q3, driven by strong sales in mainland China and Hong Kong/Macau [14][18]. - The company is undergoing a strategic transformation, focusing on product upgrades and enhancing brand value, which has led to a notable increase in the proportion of fixed-price products in sales [9][24]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For FY2025, the company achieved total revenue of HKD 89.66 billion and a net profit of HKD 5.92 billion, with projections for FY2026-2028 showing revenue growth of 5.14%, 5.27%, and 6.03% respectively [1][24]. - The gross profit margin has been steadily increasing, reaching 30.5% in FY26H1, while the net profit margin remains stable at around 6.5% [20][24]. Store Operations - The company is in a store closure cycle, having reduced its total number of stores by 228 in FY26Q3, while still maintaining strong same-store sales growth, particularly in mainland China [7][18]. - The same-store sales growth in mainland China for FY26Q1, Q2, and Q3 were -3.3%, +7.6%, and +21.4% respectively, indicating a positive trend [18]. Product Strategy - The proportion of fixed-price products has significantly increased, with retail value growth of 59.6% year-on-year for these products in FY26Q3, contributing to 40.1% of total sales [9][24]. - The company is focusing on high-end positioning by closing underperforming stores in lower-tier markets and opening new concept stores in higher-tier cities [14][24].

业绩表现超预期，定价首饰占比提升强化盈利韧性 [Table_Title] 【广发批零社服&海外】周大福 （01929.HK） [Table_Summary] 核心观点： 盈利预测： | [Table_ 单位Finance] :港元百万元 | | 2024A | 2025A | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主营收入 | | 108,713 | 89,656 | 94,150 | 101,463 | 108,211 | | 增长率（ ） | % | 14.8% | -17.5% | 5.0% | 7.8% | 6.7% | | EBITDA | | 11,535 | 10,499 | 13,212 | 15,441 | 16,688 | | 归母净利润 | | 6,499 | 5,916 | 8,161 | 9,803 | 10,716 | | 增长率（ ） | % | 20.7% | -9.0% | 38.0% | 20.1% | 9.3% | | EPS（元/股） | | 0.65 | 0.59 | ...

国际黄金期货价格和现货价格29日再创新高，盘中突破每盎司5500美元。 | W | 伦敦金现 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | SPTAUUSDOZ.IDC | | | | | | 5487.560 | 昨结 | 5417.747 | 开奖 | 5416.334 | | | +69.813 +1.29% | | 总量(kg) 0.00 | 现于 | | O | | 最高价 5598.750 | 特 仓 | 0 | 外 营 | | O | | 最低价 5416.260 | 增 仓 | 0 | R | | 0 | | 分时 日 | HK | 周K FF | | | | | 叠加 | | 均价: -- 盘口 | | | | | 5598.750 | | 3.34% | 卖1 | 5489.212 | 0 | | | | | ने 1 | 5488.888 | 0 0 | | | | 08:06 5488.000 08:06 5488.326 | | | 0 | | | | 0.00% 08:06 5488 360 | | | 0 | | 5417 ...

Summary of Conference Call on Gold Jewelry Industry and Companies Industry Overview - The analysis focuses on the gold jewelry industry, particularly the impact of the gold tax reform implemented in November 2025, and its implications for companies in the sector [1][1]. Key Company Insights Taibai Co., Ltd. (太白股份) - **Investment Value Post-Tax Reform**: The tax reform allows direct sales of gold investment bars through member units to benefit from VAT exemptions, resulting in consumers only needing to pay a processing fee of 20-30 RMB on top of the gold price [1][1]. - **Channel Advantage**: The company benefits from a significant price advantage over traditional bank channels, with a price difference of approximately 6-7 percentage points due to VAT deductions, enhancing its competitive position in the market [2][2]. Old Shop Gold (老铺黄金) - **Sales Dynamics and Market Concerns**: There are concerns regarding the sustainability of sales momentum leading into the 2026 Spring Festival, as the market has not previously experienced such a short-term surge in demand [2][2]. - **Price Increase and Promotions**: The sales of Old Shop Gold are driven by three factors: a wealth effect from rising gold prices, a price increase completed in November 2025, and promotional activities during the Spring Festival, leading to significant consumer interest and purchasing behavior [2][2]. High Elasticity Investment Targets - **Selection Criteria**: High elasticity investment targets are identified based on pure direct sales and presence in Hong Kong and Macau, benefiting from rising domestic gold market costs and currency appreciation [3][3]. Traditional Jewelry Leaders Chao Hong Ji (潮宏基) - **Performance Exceeding Expectations**: Chao Hong Ji is positioned as a rising star in the gold jewelry sector, with a significant increase in high-weight and high-craftsmanship products, boosting average store sales from 5-6 million RMB to over 10 million RMB [3][3]. - **Expansion Potential**: The company has a substantial opportunity for store expansion, with a current count of 1,300-1,500 stores and a high degree of performance realization [3][3]. Chow Tai Fook (周大福) - **Product Strategy Optimization**: Chow Tai Fook has adjusted its product structure to include approximately 40% fixed-price products, enhancing gross margins and allowing for timely adjustments to benefit from rising gold prices [3][3]. Industry Confidence - **Reaffirmation of Industry Confidence**: The overall investment confidence in the gold jewelry industry is reiterated, with a strong belief in the potential of related products [4][4].

Group 1: Federal Reserve and Currency Movements - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 3.5% to 3.75%, ending a three-rate cut cycle, with a focus on achieving full employment and a 2% inflation target [1][14] - The Chinese yuan's midpoint exchange rate broke the 7.0 mark against the US dollar for the first time in two and a half years, driven by a weak dollar and seasonal demand for currency settlement [1][15] Group 2: Company Developments and Financial Performance - Huadong Heavy Machinery expects a significant decline in net profit for 2025, projecting a decrease of 39.05% to 59.36% due to the divestment of its profitable CNC machine tool business and losses from its newly acquired chip subsidiary [1][18] - Agricultural University Technology listed on the Beijing Stock Exchange, becoming Shandong's first A-share company of the year, with its stock price surging by 111.56% on the first day despite concerns over its revenue and profit trends [1][20] - Seagate Technology's stock surged over 16% to a record high following a strong earnings report, with significant revenue and earnings per share exceeding market expectations [1][20] - SK Hynix reported a nearly 1.2 times increase in net profit for the previous year, driven by the AI storage market, and expects continued growth in storage demand [1][20] Group 3: Legal and Regulatory Issues - Shenzhen Water Bay Jewelry faced withdrawal difficulties, with thousands of investors unable to cash out, raising concerns about illegal gold betting practices [1][16] - Sunflower's major asset restructuring plan was terminated due to an investigation by the Securities Regulatory Commission, leading to significant losses for investors [1][21] - Dike Co., a leader in photovoltaic silver paste, initiated patent infringement lawsuits against two companies, seeking a total of 4 billion yuan in damages [1][21] Group 4: Market Trends and Consumer Behavior - The price of international spot gold reached a new high, exceeding $5,300 per ounce, prompting major jewelry brands to adapt their business strategies to focus on design and service rather than raw material value [1][23] - The price of Flying Moutai surged to 1,600 yuan per bottle, driven by seasonal demand and supply constraints, leading to a secondary market for reselling [1][24] - Industrial Fulian, an AI giant, projected a significant increase in net profit for 2025, driven by strong growth in cloud computing and AI server revenues [1][25]