Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Mengniu Dairy (2319.HK) with a target price of HKD 21.62, based on a current price of HKD 17.32 [1]. Core Views - Mengniu Dairy reported a revenue of RMB 98.62 billion for 2023, representing a year-on-year growth of 6.5%, and an operating profit of RMB 6.17 billion, up 13.8% year-on-year. The company declared a final dividend of RMB 0.489 per share, with a payout ratio of 40% for the year [2]. - The liquid milk segment showed steady growth, with revenue of RMB 82.1 billion (+4.9%), while ice cream and cheese segments saw significant increases in revenue, with cheese revenue soaring by 230% due to the consolidation of Miaokelando [2]. - The decline in raw milk prices has improved profit margins, with a gross margin of 37.2%, up 1.9 percentage points year-on-year. The operating profit margin increased to 6.3%, a rise of 0.4 percentage points [2]. - The new president, Gao Fei, is expected to lead the company towards continued improvement in profitability, supported by a favorable raw milk price environment and product structure optimization [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, Mengniu Dairy achieved a total revenue of RMB 98.62 billion, with a growth rate of 6.5%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 4.81 billion, reflecting a decline of 9.31% year-on-year. The earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 was RMB 1.22 [3][11]. - Forecasts for 2024-2026 predict net profits of RMB 5.50 billion, RMB 6.00 billion, and RMB 6.52 billion, respectively, with corresponding EPS of RMB 1.40, RMB 1.53, and RMB 1.66 [2][3]. Segment Analysis - Liquid Milk: Revenue is expected to grow at rates of 4%, 3%, and 2.8% from 2024 to 2026, driven by market share expansion and product optimization [7]. - Ice Cream: Anticipated revenue growth rates of 15%, 13%, and 10% from 2024 to 2026, supported by new consumption scenarios and innovative products [7]. - Cheese: Revenue growth is projected at 18%, 15%, and 12% for the same period, with Miaokelando maintaining a leading market share [7]. Valuation and Investment Recommendation - The report suggests a dynamic PE of 14 times for 2024, leading to a target price of HKD 21.62, maintaining the "Buy" rating based on expected improvements in operating profit margins [2][8].

海 外 研 证券研究报告 究 ＃industryId＃ 食品饮料行业 ＃02319 .HK ＃蒙dy牛Com乳pa业ny＃ 港股通（沪、深） dyStockco ＃inve 买stSu 入ggest ion＃ ( i维nv＃ e持stS ） d e＃ 新消 费趋 势引领产＃品tit创le＃新 ，营收稳健增长 uggesti onC han ＃createTime1＃ 2024年 03月 28日 ge＃ 投资要点 公 ＃市场ma数rk据et Data＃ ＃summary＃ 司 ⚫ 营收稳健增长。2023年，公司营收为986.24亿元，同比增长6.5%，增速 日期 2024.03.28 跟 同比+1.5pcts。其中液态奶营收820.71亿元，同比增长4.9%，占比83.2%， 收盘价（港元） 16.80 同比-1.3pcts。冰淇淋营收60.26亿元，同比增长6.6%，占比6.1%，同比 踪 总股本（亿股） 39.35 +0.01pcts。奶粉营收38.02亿元，同比减少1.6%，占比3.9%，同比-0.3pcts。 报 总市值（亿港元） 661.13 奶酪营收为43.57亿元，占比4.4%，同比+3.0pct ...

公司研究 | 动态跟踪 蒙牛乳业 02319.HK 液奶稳健增长，持续受益原奶成本下行与 买入（维持） 产品结构升级 股价（2024年04月02日） 17.32港元 目标价格 25.42港元 52周最高价/最低价 33.41/16港元 总股本/流通H股（万股） 393,529/393,529 H股市值（百万港币） 68,159 核心观点 国家/地区 中国 行业 食品饮料 ⚫ 核心业绩表现：公司近期发布2023年业绩公告，2023年实现营收986.24亿元 报告发布日期 2024年04月03日 （yoy+6.5%），实现归母净利润48.09亿元（yoy-9.3%）。2023年，公司毛利率 为37.2%（yoy+1.85pct），主要系原奶价格同比下降，产品结构同比提升。公司销 1周 1月 3月 12月 售费用率为25.5%（yoy+1.4pct），主要由于线下销售推广执行活动增加所致。 绝对表现% -8.65 -11.9 -12.79 -45.43 2023年公司应占联营公司业绩为0.91亿元，同比-78%。 相对表现% -10.53 -13.96 -13.64 -28.43 ⚫ 液态奶市场份额持续扩张，夯实高 ...

研究报告Research Report 2 Apr 2024 蒙牛乳业 China Mengniu Dairy (2319 HK) 2023 年业绩点评：OPM 提升稳定兑现，非经常性损益使净利波动 OPM Increased Steadily, and One-Time Profit and Loss Made Net Profit Fluctuate [观Ta点bl聚e_焦yem Inevie1s] tment Focus [Table_Info] (Please see APPENDIX 1 for English summary) 维持优于大市Maintain OUTPERFORM 事件：2023年公司营收986.2亿元，同比+6.5%（内生+2.6% ）；经 评级 优于大市OUTPERFORM 营利润61.7亿元，同比+13.8%；归母净利润48.1亿元，同比-9.3%。 现价 HK$16.80 2023H2 营收 475.1 亿元，同比+5.9%（内生+2.3%）；经营利润 29.0 目标价 HK$29.80 亿元，同比-0.3%；归母净利润17. 9亿元，同比+15.3%。 HTI ESG 2. ...

2024 年 4 月 2 日 公司动态 蒙牛乳业（2319.HK） 证券研究报告 食品饮料 平稳收官，提高分红 投资评级： Xx 买入 xx 蒙牛2023年收入986亿/+6.5%，经营利润61亿/+6.3%，经营利润率同比提升0.4pct， 完成年初目标。净利润48.8亿/-5.7%。公司变更总裁，但是表明战略目标不变，同 目标价格： 27.2 元 时提高了派息率至40%。我们预期24/25/26年净利润分别为53.9/59/63亿人民币， 现价(2024-3-28)： 16.8港元 对应EPS为1.47/1.61/1.73港元。维持“买入”评级，目标价为27.2港元，较当 前股价有62%的上涨空间。 报告摘要 总市值(百万港元) 66,112.91 液态奶平稳增长，结构持续升级。23年液态奶收入820亿/+4.9%，经营利润61亿， 流通市值(百万港元) 66,112.91 利润率7.5%/+0.2pct。特仑苏份额持续提升，有机系列双位数增长，品类结构持续 总股本(百万股) 3,935.29 优化。常温酸奶仍然承压，乳饮料基本持平。低温酸奶实现逆势增长，继续蝉联市 流通股本(百万股) 3,935.29 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Mengniu Dairy (2319.HK) with a target price of HKD 21.1, representing a potential upside of 23.5% from the current price of HKD 17.1 [6][15]. Core Insights - Mengniu's revenue growth faces challenges due to industry demand slowdown, oversupply of raw milk, and intensified competition. Recent management changes may lead to short-term market sentiment fluctuations, but the company's strong product development and innovation capabilities in the liquid milk sector support long-term growth potential [5][6]. - The forecast predicts a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 14% for the net profit attributable to shareholders from 2023 to 2026, driven by continuous margin expansion [5]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: - 2022: RMB 92,593 million - 2023: RMB 98,624 million (YoY growth of 6.5%) - 2024: RMB 100,836 million (YoY growth of 2.2%) - 2025: RMB 105,095 million (YoY growth of 4.2%) - 2026: RMB 109,810 million (YoY growth of 4.5%) [10][12]. - **Net Profit Forecast**: - 2022: RMB 5,303 million - 2023: RMB 4,809 million (YoY decline of 9.3%) - 2024: RMB 5,467 million (YoY growth of 13.7%) - 2025: RMB 6,291 million (YoY growth of 15.1%) - 2026: RMB 7,163 million (YoY growth of 13.9%) [10][12]. - **Profitability Metrics**: - Gross Margin: Expected to improve from 35.3% in 2022 to 38.0% by 2026 - Operating Margin: Expected to increase from 5.9% in 2022 to 7.3% by 2026 - Return on Equity (ROE): Projected to rise from 15.1% in 2022 to 13.3% by 2026 [10][12]. Growth Drivers - Key growth areas identified for 2024 include: - Continued strong growth for the premium product "Te Long Su" - Positive expansion trends in ice cream sales overseas - Significant revenue growth for Bellamy's, with over 40% YoY increase in 2023 - Recovery in low-temperature yogurt sales after a significant decline - Fresh milk expected to contribute to revenue growth above the company average [5][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Mengniu Dairy (2319.HK) [3] Core Views - Mengniu Dairy's 2023 annual report shows a stable operating performance with a revenue of 98.624 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.51%, while net profit decreased by 9.31% to 4.809 billion yuan. The second half of 2023 saw revenue of 47.506 billion yuan, up 5.87%, and net profit increased by 15.28% to 1.789 billion yuan [2] - The liquid milk business remains robust, while the milk powder segment is undergoing adjustments. Revenue from liquid milk, ice cream, milk powder, cheese, and other dairy products for 2023 was 82.071 billion, 6.026 billion, 3.802 billion, 4.357 billion, and 2.368 billion yuan respectively, with notable growth in cheese products due to the consolidation of Miao Ke Lan Duo [2] - The company is focusing on optimizing channel layouts and quality development, with expectations for steady revenue growth in 2024. The decline in raw milk prices is anticipated to enhance gross margins, while marketing efficiency is expected to improve [2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, Mengniu Dairy achieved a gross margin of 37.15%, an increase of 1.85 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to declining raw milk prices and product structure optimization. The sales expense ratio rose to 25.54%, up 1.41 percentage points, reflecting increased brand promotion activities [2] - The company forecasts net profits of 5.497 billion, 6.107 billion, and 6.631 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.40, 1.55, and 1.69 yuan. The current stock price corresponds to P/E ratios of 11, 10, and 9 for 2024-2026 [2][7] Market Data - The total share capital is 3.935 billion shares, with a total market capitalization of 661.13 billion HKD. The stock price has fluctuated between 16.00 and 34.55 HKD over the past year [4][5]

Investment Rating - Buy rating maintained for the company [1] Core Views - The company's liquid milk segment shows steady growth, with fresh milk maintaining a strong market position [3] - The acquisition of Miaokelanduo significantly boosted the cheese business revenue [3] - Gross margin continues to improve due to lower raw milk prices and product structure upgrades [3] - The company's channel advantages and rapid new product iterations are expected to further enhance market share [4] Financial Performance - Total revenue for 2023 reached 990.95 billion yuan, a 6.62% year-on-year increase [3] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 4.809 billion yuan, a 9.31% year-on-year decrease [3] - Gross margin for 2023 was 37.15%, up 1.85 percentage points year-on-year [3] - Sales expenses increased, with the sales expense ratio rising to 25.54%, up 1.41 percentage points [3] Business Segments - Liquid milk revenue in 2023 was 82.071 billion yuan, a 4.86% year-on-year increase [3] - Cheese business revenue surged by 229.81% to 4.357 billion yuan, mainly due to the Miaokelanduo acquisition [3] - Ice cream and milk powder segments showed mixed performance, with ice cream revenue up 6.62% and milk powder down 1.56% [3] Future Outlook - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 5.436 billion, 5.983 billion, and 6.483 billion yuan in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 13.04%, 10.05%, and 8.36% [4] - The PE ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are projected to be 12, 11, and 10 times, respectively [4] Market Position - The company's fresh milk business outperformed the industry, with the "Daily Fresh" brand maintaining its leading position in the high-end fresh milk market [4] - The company's organic series achieved double-digit growth, and the white milk product structure continued to upgrade [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 25, compared to the current price of HKD 17.08 [1][3][11]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of HKD 98.624 billion in 2023, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.51%. Operating profit was HKD 6.171 billion, up 13.8%, while net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 9.31% to HKD 4.809 billion [1][11]. - The second half of 2023 saw revenue of HKD 47.506 billion, a 5.87% increase year-on-year, with net profit rising by 15.28% to HKD 1.789 billion [1][11]. - The company focuses on quality growth, with a target of mid-single-digit revenue growth for 2024 and an operating profit margin (OPM) increase of 30-50 basis points [1][11]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 was HKD 98,624 million, with a projected growth rate of 6.5% for 2024 [1][11]. - Net profit for 2023 was HKD 4,809 million, with an expected growth of 13.5% in 2024 [1][11]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted at HKD 1.39 for 2024, with a PE ratio of 11 times [1][11]. - The company’s total assets were HKD 115.220 billion in 2023, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 56% [4][11].

[Table_Title] 证券研究报告 业绩表现稳健，总裁实现交接 公司研究 [Table_ReportDate] 2024年3月28日 [Table_ReportType] 公司点评报告 [T事ab件le：_S公um司ma发ry布] 2023年业绩公告。2023年，公司实现营收人民币986.24 [蒙Ta牛bl乳e_业Sto(c2k3A1n9dR.aHnKk)] 亿元，同比+6.5%，实现归母净利润48.09亿元，同比-9.31%。其中，23H2 公司实现营收 475.05 亿元，同比+5.9%；实现归母净利润 17.89 亿元，同 投资评级 比+15.3%。 上次评级 [马Ta铮b le _ A u t食ho品r]饮 料行业首席分析师 点评： 执业编号：S1500520110001 联系电话：13392190215 ➢ 全年收入表现平稳，细分品类呈现分化。尽管行业增速有所放缓，公司 邮 箱：mazheng@cindasc.com 全年收入同比+6.5%（包含妙可蓝多并表）。分品类看，液态奶产品表现 出色，营收同比+4.9%；冰淇淋受东南亚市场增长拉动，营收同比 +6.6%；奶粉业务受市场整体影响，营收同 ...