美银证券将中国券商股2025至2026年的盈利预测上调0%至13%，预计主要上市中国券商2025至2026年 平均盈利增长30%，中金公司表现料领先。美银证券对2025至2026年A股日均成交额预测上调14%至 18%，料为1.6万亿至1.7万亿元人民币。H股券商的目标价平均上调4%(详见另表)，以反映更高的盈利 预测。充裕的市场流动性继续支持市场上升，四中全会、"十五五"规划以及潜在的监管宽松政策将是值 得关注的关键催化剂。 美银证券发布研报称，预期中国券商2025年第三季平均净利润按季增长9%，同比增长21%，受强劲的 经纪业务费用增长支持，股票交易收入可能超出预期，推动整体表现。中金公司（601995）(03908)和 中信建投（601066）证券(06066)预计将领跑同行，第三季度净利润料分别同比增长258%和116%。 尽管基本面强劲，券商股H股在9月的表现未如理想，市场对2025年第四季至2026年上半年的增长以及 国家队减持的担忧影响了表现。目前估值为1倍远期市账率，平均股本回报率为9%，该行预计随着成交 量强劲增长和盈利超预期，估值仍有上行空间。中金、中信证券（600030）(06030)和 ...

尽管基本面强劲，券商股H股在9月的表现未如理想，市场对2025年第四季至2026年上半年的增长以及 国家队减持的担忧影响了表现。目前估值为1倍远期市账率，平均股本回报率为9%，该行预计随着成交 量强劲增长和盈利超预期，估值仍有上行空间。中金、中信证券(06030)和广发证券(01776)是美银证券 首选股，预计2025至2026财年盈利增长强劲，股本回报率持续改善。 美银证券将中国券商股2025至2026年的盈利预测上调0%至13%，预计主要上市中国券商2025至2026年 平均盈利增长30%，中金公司表现料领先。美银证券对2025至2026年A股日均成交额预测上调14%至 18%，料为1.6万亿至1.7万亿元人民币。H股券商的目标价平均上调4%(详见另表)，以反映更高的盈利 预测。充裕的市场流动性继续支持市场上升，四中全会、"十五五"规划以及潜在的监管宽松政策将是值 得关注的关键催化剂。 美银证券发布研报称，预期中国券商2025年第三季平均净利润按季增长9%，同比增长21%，受强劲的 经纪业务费用增长支持，股票交易收入可能超出预期，推动整体表现。中金公司(03908)和中信建投证 券(06066)预计将领跑 ...

美银证券将中国券商股2025至2026年的盈利预测上调0%至13%，预计主要上市中国券商2025至2026年 平均盈利增长30%，中金公司表现料领先。美银证券对2025至2026年A股日均成交额预测上调14%至 18%，料为1.6万亿至1.7万亿元人民币。H股券商的目标价平均上调4%(详见另表)，以反映更高的盈利 预测。充裕的市场流动性继续支持市场上升，四中全会、"十五五"规划以及潜在的监管宽松政策将是值 得关注的关键催化剂。 智通财经APP获悉，美银证券发布研报称，预期中国券商2025年第三季平均净利润按季增长9%，同比 增长21%，受强劲的经纪业务费用增长支持，股票交易收入可能超出预期，推动整体表现。中金公司 (03908)和中信建投证券(06066)预计将领跑同行，第三季度净利润料分别同比增长258%和116%。 尽管基本面强劲，券商股H股在9月的表现未如理想，市场对2025年第四季至2026年上半年的增长以及 国家队减持的担忧影响了表现。目前估值为1倍远期市账率，平均股本回报率为9%，该行预计随着成交 量强劲增长和盈利超预期，估值仍有上行空间。中金、中信证券(06030)和广发证券(01776)是美银 ...

美银证券将券商股2025至2026年的盈利预测上调0%至13%，预计主要上市券商2025至2026年平均盈利 增长30%。该行对2025至2026年A股日均成交额预测上调14%至18%，料为1.6万亿至1.7万亿元。充裕的 市场流动性继续支持市场上升，四中全会、十五五规划以及潜在的监管宽松政策将是值得关注的关键催 化剂。该行的首选股包括中金、中信证券和广发证券，预计2025至2026财年盈利增长强劲，股本回报率 持续改善。 美银证券发表报告，预期内地券商2025年第三季平均净利润按季增长9%，按年增长21%，受强劲的经 纪业务费用增长支持，股票交易收入可能超出预期，推动整体表现。中金公司和中信建投证券预计将领 跑同行，第三季度净利润料分别按年增长258%和116%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese stock market shows strong structural characteristics with a focus on growth sectors, indicating potential investment opportunities in the AI and related industries [2][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index opened high and broke through the 3900-point mark, reaching its highest level since August 2015 [1]. - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 2.65 trillion yuan, an increase of 471.8 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1]. - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.32%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.47%, and the ChiNext Index gained 0.73% [1]. Group 2: Industry Insights - CICC's October industry allocation suggests that growth sectors are likely to continue outperforming, with a focus on industries experiencing favorable conditions [2]. - Key sectors to watch include AI computing, robotics, innovative pharmaceuticals, consumer electronics, batteries, and non-ferrous metals [2]. - The report emphasizes the importance of China's clear energy transition goals and its role as a manufacturing powerhouse in driving technological innovation [2]. Group 3: AI Industry Focus - CITIC Securities highlights the rising popularity of the AI industry, particularly following the release of OpenAI's video generation model Sora 2, which quickly topped the US App Store free chart [3]. - The partnership between OpenAI and AMD to establish a 6GW strategic agreement underscores the strong demand for AI computing power [3]. - The AI computing sector encompasses a wide range of components, including advanced processes, GPUs/ASICs, optical modules, and data center infrastructure, indicating a broad market opportunity [3].

中金公司研报认为，近期市场表现出较强的结构性特征，热点集中在成长板块。由于前期市场成交迅速 放大、交易集中，8月底后A股市场进入盘整震荡期，但不乏结构亮点。海外AI算力的强劲需求持续被 印证，中国能源转型目标较为清晰，在全球产业链上的定位决定了中国以制造业大国的角色参与技术革 命，研报认为推动制造升级将是中长期趋势，正在催化股票市场的结构性机会。10月建议关注如下配置 思路：1）AI算力和机器人等相关产业链；2）创新药、消费电子、电池和有色金属等行业；3）工程机 械、电网设备、养殖业与饲料等行业；4）"十五五"相关领域。（人民财讯） ...

美联储降息节奏可能在"快-慢-快"之间切换 美联储9月重启降息，美元宽松周期进入新阶段，或对中外经济运行与资产表现产生深远影响。我们的基准预期是美联储降息周期可能分为"快-慢-快"3个 阶段： 文/中金大类资产研究：李昭，杨晓卿 点击小程序查看报告原文 2025Q4是第一阶段，降息节奏较快： 由于通胀8月刚确认上行拐点（《 拐点将至：美国通胀的资产启示 》），绝对水平不高，且美联储可以用"暂时 性"现象淡化通胀压力，而就业下行风险比通胀上行风险更迫切，所以"稳增长"的优先级高于"控通胀"。 图表1：美国通胀已确认上行拐点，未来3个季度或持续抬升 资料来源：Haver，中金公司研究部 叠加特朗普施加较大政治压力，我们预计美联储可能降息节奏较快，或连续降息3-4次。 2026H1为第二阶段，降息节奏放慢。 随着通胀持续上行，美联储或需重新平衡增长下行与通胀上行风险，无法持续快速降息，可能用停止"缩表"来安抚 金融市场。 2026H2为第三阶段，降息节奏再次加速。 由于2026年5月鲍威尔任期届满，我们预计特朗普政府大概率提名更鸽派的美联储主席上台，并且关税对通胀的 推升效果也可能告一段落，美联储可能重新加快降息节 ...

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - In the first nine months of 2025, a total of 78 companies were listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange, Shenzhen Stock Exchange, and Beijing Stock Exchange, raising a total of 77.164 billion yuan in funds, with Huadian New Energy leading the fundraising efforts [1][2]. Group 1: Listing and Fundraising - A total of 78 companies were listed from January to September 2025, with 26 on the main board, 29 on the ChiNext, 8 on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, and 15 on the Beijing Stock Exchange [1]. - The total fundraising amount for these companies reached 771.64 billion yuan, with Huadian New Energy raising 181.71 billion yuan, making it the top fundraiser [1]. Group 2: Underwriting and Sponsorship - 32 securities firms participated in the underwriting and sponsorship of the newly listed companies, earning a total of 3.837 billion yuan in fees [2][4]. - Guotai Junan Securities ranked first in underwriting fees, earning 501.01 million yuan from sponsoring 8 companies [2][5]. - CITIC Securities and CITIC Jianye followed, earning 408.05 million yuan and 399.19 million yuan respectively, with CITIC Securities sponsoring 6 companies [2][3]. Group 3: Detailed Ranking of Securities Firms - The top five securities firms earned a combined total of 1.896 billion yuan, accounting for 49.40% of the total underwriting fees [4]. - Other firms in the top ten included Shenwan Hongyuan, Guolian Minsheng, Dongxing Securities, and Orient Securities, with fees ranging from 134.38 million yuan to 171.31 million yuan [4][6].

Investment Rating - The report includes a selection of 81 A-shares and 56 overseas Chinese stocks, indicating a positive investment outlook for these sectors [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights the addition of Yutong Technology (裕同科技) to the A-share selection due to favorable short-term operational prospects, while Oppein Home (欧派家居) has been removed due to short-term performance pressures [2][4]. - For overseas Chinese stocks, China Taiping (中国太平) has been added, reflecting its successful early transformation in dividend insurance and low valuation, which is expected to yield alpha returns [4][6]. Summary by Sections A-Shares - Newly added stock: Yutong Technology (裕同科技), stock code: 002831.SZ, recommended for its short-term operational improvement [4]. - Removed stock: Oppein Home (欧派家居), stock code: 603833.SH, due to short-term performance pressures [5]. Overseas Chinese Stocks - Newly added stock: China Taiping (中国太平), stock code: 0966.HK, noted for its early completion of dividend insurance transformation and low asset base expected to drive future growth [4][6].

Core Insights - The article highlights the top and bottom AH premium rates for various stocks as of October 9, with Northeast Electric (00042) leading at a premium of 743.75% [1][2]. AH Premium Rate Rankings - The top three stocks with the highest AH premium rates are: - Northeast Electric (00042): 743.75% - Andeli Juice (02218): 235.25% - Zhejiang Shibao (01057): 227.36% [1][2] - The bottom three stocks with the lowest AH premium rates are: - Contemporary Amperex Technology (03750): -16.12% - Heng Rui Medicine (01276): -2.39% - China Merchants Bank (03968): 3.49% [1][2] Deviation Values - The stocks with the highest deviation values are: - Changfei Optical Fiber (06869): 28.93% - Zhejiang Shibao (01057): 12.23% - Red Star Macalline (01528): 11.20% [1][2] - The stocks with the lowest deviation values are: - Northeast Electric (00042): -72.24% - Shanghai Electric (02727): -54.73% - Dazhong Public Utilities (01635): -29.80% [1][2]