（文章来源：第一财经） 华泰证券指出，现阶段人民币升值（纠正低估）有望推升外资对人民币资产的关注度和风险偏好，和资 金流入形成"正循环"，有利于放松金融条件。近期跨境资本流入部分受益于市场回升带动的证券投资净 流入。虽然年底资金流向和风险偏好指标有季节性回落，但随着人民币升值动能进一步强化，人民币资 产、包括在岸和离岸人民币资产估值均将继续受到提振。我们维持2026年底美元兑人民币汇率6.82的预 测——这一预测意味着，中国明年美元计价名义GDP增速可能达到8.5-9%，相应的盈利增长预测也将大 幅提升。这一名义增长表现或将促使海外资金重新审视目前偏低的中国资产相对配置份额。 ...

华泰证券研报指出，12月25日，离岸人民币兑美元汇率盘中突破7.00的重要关口，在岸人民币也升破 7.01。目前，跨过7的象征性点位后，我们仍看好人民币升值的潜力和动力。基本面层面，人民币汇率 极具竞争力、且相对价格优势与日俱增——年化4-5个百分点的升值不影响中国出口行业的总体优势。 结汇高峰这一催化剂之外，我们关注2026年"开门红"和中美经贸关系进一步缓和的潜在利好。对市场环 境的影响而言，现阶段人民币升值（纠正低估）有望推升外资对人民币资产的关注度和风险偏好，和资 金流入形成"正循环"，推升资产估值和银行间流动性，反而有利于放松金融条件。我们重申2026年底美 元兑人民币汇率6.82、且2026年美元计价中国名义GDP增长8.5-9%的预测。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current high metal prices are prompting many exploration, mining service, and equipment manufacturers to transition towards mining development, with various models such as equity participation, control, and EPC+O (low equity but enjoying excess profit rights) being adopted [1] Group 1: Transition Models - The transition models are expected to become significant forces in future mining development due to the strong willingness of small and medium-sized mine owners to develop, despite facing constraints like limited financial strength and insufficient technical and project management capabilities [1] - Large mining companies prefer projects with large resource volumes and long lifecycles, showing less interest in smaller-scale mines [1] Group 2: Role of Mining Service and Equipment Companies - Mining service and equipment companies possess rich operational experience, allowing them to participate in the development of small mines through the EPC+O model [1] - This mutually beneficial business model is anticipated to expand on a large scale in the future, making the transition of mining service and equipment manufacturers a promising investment opportunity [1]

随着A股市场在2025年逐渐回暖，券商投行的IPO业务也迎来了显著改善。然而，繁荣的承销数字背后，一场深刻的行业变局正 在上演：头部券商间的座次正在洗牌，而曾经被视为"金饭碗"的投行收费模式，也悄然步入了理性回归的新阶段。 谁是这场变局中的赢家？Wind数据显示，2025年券商IPO承销总金额同比近乎翻倍，但"强者恒强"的马太效应也愈发明显。新 合并而成的"巨无霸"国泰海通，在承销家数上力压老牌龙头中信证券，但在承销金额、承销及保荐收入上，仍与"券业一哥"存 在明显差距。 与此同时，中金公司IPO承销金额凭借近三倍的惊人增速强势回归前五。头部阵营的激烈角逐，勾勒出投行业务格局的新图 谱。 更深刻的变化在于行业的盈利模式。尽管募资规模回升，但投行收费水平已大远不及往日。一个募资规模30多亿的大项目，承 销保荐费可能仅有5000万元；而作为行业标杆的中信证券，其收入过亿的"王牌项目"数量也大幅缩水。 | | | 近三年以来IPO承销金额前十券商一览 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 排名 | 2025年(1月1日—12月24日) | 2024年(1月1日-12月31日) | 2023 ...

Core Insights - The A-share market has been significantly impacted by the recent IPOs of two GPU companies, Moore Threads and Muxi Co., which have set new records for profitability among new stocks in a short period [2] - Investors have seen substantial gains from these IPOs, with Moore Threads' stock price peaking at 688 CNY per share, resulting in a maximum profit of 286,800 CNY for investors [2] - The underwriting and sponsorship roles of securities firms have become increasingly important, with major firms like CITIC Securities and Huatai United Securities benefiting from both service fees and capital gains from strategic placements [2][5] Company Summaries - Moore Threads, underwritten by CITIC Securities, saw its stock price rise over 500% on the first day of trading, with the company expected to generate approximately 900 million CNY in total revenue from its IPO, including underwriting fees and stock gains [2][5] - CITIC Securities earned around 10 million CNY in underwriting fees and approximately 800 million CNY in stock gains from its strategic placement in Moore Threads [5] - Muxi Co., with Huatai United Securities as its underwriter, raised 4.197 billion CNY in its IPO, and the firm is projected to earn about 267 million CNY in underwriting fees along with significant capital gains from its strategic placements [6][8] Market Trends - The competition among securities firms has evolved from merely securing project numbers to targeting high-quality projects, as seen with the successful IPOs of Moore Threads and Muxi Co. [7] - Regulatory changes by the China Securities Regulatory Commission have introduced a market-oriented underwriting mechanism, allowing underwriters to invest in IPOs through their subsidiaries, which has led to substantial profits for firms involved [8] - As of December 23, five securities firms have participated in strategic placements for newly listed companies, with total floating profits exceeding 4.5 billion CNY [8]

Core Viewpoint - The insurance and securities sectors are experiencing significant growth, with the Securities Insurance ETF up over 15% and the Insurance Securities ETF up over 11% year-to-date, driven by strong performances from major companies in the industry [1][2]. Group 1: ETF Performance - The Securities Insurance ETF tracks the CSI 300 Non-Bank Financial Index, with 61.4% of its components being securities and 37.7% being insurance [3]. - The Insurance Securities ETF follows the CSI 800 Securities Insurance Index, with 73.8% of its components in securities and 25.6% in insurance [4]. Group 2: Industry Outlook - According to a recent report by CICC, the life insurance industry is expected to enter a golden development period by 2026, with a more positive trend in liabilities, shifting the investment logic from "seeking revaluation of existing businesses" to "valuing growth capabilities" [4]. - The current surge in the insurance sector is attributed to the expansion of asset under management (AUM) and the recovery of interest rate spreads, enhancing the certainty of investment returns [4]. - The insurance sector is seen as being in a critical window for performance and valuation recovery, supported by favorable policy and market conditions, with leading companies strengthening their advantages [4]. Group 3: Securities Firms - West Securities believes that there is a mismatch between profitability and valuation in the brokerage sector, indicating potential for future recovery [4]. - Guojin Securities highlights four themes for 2026: increased market activity from resident deposit migration, enhanced resilience and reduced volatility in capital markets, opportunities in direct financing for innovative enterprises, and ongoing mergers and acquisitions in the brokerage industry [5]. - Huatai Securities notes that the market remains active with daily trading volumes around 1.7 trillion yuan and financing balances stabilizing at 2.48 trillion yuan, indicating a favorable environment for brokerage value recovery [6].

Group 1: Market Overview - A-shares opened mixed with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.08% and the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.10% [1] Group 2: Real Estate Sector Insights - Huatai Securities suggests that product strength will become a core competitive advantage for real estate companies in 2026, potentially reshaping market positions and competitive landscape [2] - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development's recent meeting emphasizes policies for controlling supply, reducing inventory, and optimizing supply, which are expected to stabilize the market [2] - Recommendations include focusing on real estate stocks with "good credit, good cities, and good products," companies managing cash flow effectively during market adjustments, local Hong Kong real estate firms benefiting from market recovery, and property management companies with stable cash flow and dividend advantages [2] Group 3: Home Appliance Industry Strategy - Zhongtai Securities identifies four main investment strategies for the home appliance sector in 2026, including a focus on dividend stocks, overseas expansion, low expectation and valuation two-wheeled vehicles, and the sweeping robot segment [3] - The home appliance sector is currently in a "slow bull" phase, with significant investment interest from insurance capital due to regulatory changes [3] - The impact of new national standards on industry growth may be less severe than anticipated, with market share expected to increase as competition decreases [3] Group 4: Nuclear Fusion Industry Opportunities - CITIC Construction Investment highlights that controlled nuclear fusion is seen as a key solution for the energy revolution, attracting strategic competition among major global powers [4] - Advances in high-temperature superconductors and AI technology, along with policy support and capital investment, are accelerating the commercialization of nuclear fusion [4] - Investment opportunities are concentrated in the midstream and upstream sectors, driven by the construction of large scientific facilities and experimental reactors [4]

Group 1 - On December 24, Huatai Securities saw a stock price increase of 1.81% with a trading volume of 1.965 billion yuan, while the margin trading data indicated a net margin buy of -81.82 million yuan after a financing buy of 237 million yuan and a repayment of 319 million yuan [1] - As of December 24, the total margin trading balance for Huatai Securities was 6.099 billion yuan, with the financing balance at 6.083 billion yuan, representing 3.52% of the circulating market value, which is below the 10% percentile level over the past year [1] - In terms of securities lending, on December 24, Huatai Securities had a securities lending repayment of 58,700 shares and a securities lending sell of 64,200 shares, with a sell amount of 1.5164 million yuan, while the securities lending balance was 15.7262 million yuan, exceeding the 90% percentile level over the past year [1] Group 2 - As of September 30, Huatai Securities had 195,500 shareholders, a decrease of 6.96% from the previous period, while the average circulating shares per person increased by 7.62% to 38,566 shares [2] - For the period from January to September 2025, Huatai Securities reported an operating income of 27.129 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.67%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 1.69% to 12.733 billion yuan [2] - Since its A-share listing, Huatai Securities has distributed a total of 42.893 billion yuan in dividends, with 13.994 billion yuan distributed over the past three years [3] Group 3 - As of September 30, 2025, among the top ten circulating shareholders of Huatai Securities, Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited was the fourth largest shareholder with 442 million shares, a decrease of 108 million shares from the previous period [3] - China Securities Finance Corporation was the seventh largest shareholder with 153 million shares, remaining unchanged from the previous period, while Guotai CSI All-Index Securities Company ETF was the ninth largest shareholder with 131 million shares, marking a new entry [3]

每经AI快讯，华泰证券研报表示，坚定看好2026—2028年国内天然气市场进入成本下行周期，进口管 道气与LNG中长协价格全面回落或将成为核心主线，叠加行业定价机制优化与需求稳步复苏，燃气公 司盈利韧性与分红确定性凸显，同时LNG现货价格弹性机会值得重点关注。投资主线聚焦"分红确定 性"与"现货弹性"双逻辑。整体来看，燃气行业成本端压力全面缓解，需求端工业、发电用气稳健复 苏，行业盈利与分红进入双重增长通道，长期投资价值显著。 ...

Market Overview - The market experienced fluctuations with the Shanghai Composite Index rising for six consecutive days, closing up 0.53% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1.88 trillion, a decrease of 196 billion from the previous trading day [1] - The commercial aerospace concept and computing hardware sectors showed strong performance, while precious metals, insurance, and dairy sectors faced declines [1] Real Estate Sector Insights - Huatai Securities suggests that product strength will become a core competitive advantage for real estate companies in 2026, potentially reshaping market positions and competitive dynamics [2] - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development's recent meeting emphasized policies for controlling growth, reducing inventory, and optimizing supply, which are expected to stabilize the market [2] - Recommended investment focuses include real estate stocks with "good credit, good city, good product" attributes, companies managing cash flow effectively during market adjustments, local Hong Kong real estate firms benefiting from market recovery, and property management companies with stable cash flow and dividend advantages [2] Home Appliance Sector Strategy - Zhongtai Securities indicates that the home appliance sector is in a "slow bull phase," with four main investment strategies for 2026 [3] - The first strategy focuses on the "dividend sector," where insurance capital is increasingly invested in growth-value stocks like Midea [3] - The second strategy highlights the "overseas expansion sector," while the third emphasizes the two-wheeler sector, which is characterized by low expectations and valuations, with potential for rebound despite regulatory impacts [4] - The fourth strategy targets the floor-cleaning machine sector, recommending attention to brands with overseas expansion and those poised for rebound [5] Nuclear Fusion Industry Outlook - CITIC Construction emphasizes that controlled nuclear fusion is viewed as a key solution for the energy revolution, attracting strategic competition among major powers [6] - Breakthroughs in high-temperature superconductors and AI technology, along with policy support and capital investment, are accelerating the commercialization of nuclear fusion [6] - The focus is on engineering technology and commercial viability, with significant investment opportunities concentrated in the upstream sector due to large scientific facility construction and experimental reactors [6]