周二的行情，继续牛！ 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ （来源：木鱼ETF） 蛰伏已久的券商系、金融科技等ETF终于爆发了，加上市场连续两天成交破2.5万亿，"人气牛"有味道了！ 那么，这对行情有何影响、又会走多远？木鱼边复盘边分享，观点仅供参考！ "人气牛"回归，是给我们设定的"三股风"加码。我们分析指出，人民币资产为首的三股风向是市场做多的主要动力。对于非银金融看好，但主要是看保 险。而另外半壁的券商爆发是补上另外半边，"人气牛"有感觉了！ 谁在做多券商股？我们需要用更新的视角观察。 | 指数 | 涨跌幅 (%) | 成交额(亿) | 成交变化(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 中证500 | 2.13 | 5717 | 13.27 | | 上证50 | 1.9 | 1800 | 6.18 | | 中证1000 | 1.43 | 5808 | 7.12 | | 沪深300 | 1.55 | 7254 | 15.04 | | 中证A500 | 1.68 | 10827 | 13.63 | | 国证2000 | 1.35 | 8557 | ...

2025年A股在政策、估值、盈利、资金四重支撑下走出了牛市行情，但A股市场细分赛道的分化却愈发 明显。2026年作为"十五五"规划开局之年，经济转型深化与政策发力预期叠加，在这样的背景下，2026 年的投资机会如何？从技术分析的角度来看，2026年的A股市场在私募大佬眼中又会有怎样的表现？ 近日，市场资深分析人士刘宁川从技术分析的角度对2026年的市场作出推演。 刘宁川表示，展望2026年，投资方面，最好的方向应该是处于新旧经济交替的A股，特别是科技股，将 会有不俗表现。而技术上，2026年的A股只要守稳3700点水平，展开的将会是波澜壮阔的3iii主升浪行 情。 2024年预期的冲破3700点、挑战4000点的行程，在8月后已经圆满完成，"赤马""红羊"年的任务将会是 冲击5178点挑战"宇宙顶"6124点。 科技竞争大环境基本是一种赢家通吃的状态，所以投资上也要遵守一个字"稳"，要安安心心拿着成长 性、垄断性特别好的科技真龙头。 他认为，在大国博弈的赛道中，有两个主线，一个是能源革命，一个是科技革命。能源革命主要方向就 是新能源电力的应用，固态电池与未来可控核聚变。 科技方面主要就是AI+万物，AI最重要 ...

（原标题：保险股上涨，证券保险ETF年内涨超15%，保险证券ETF年内涨超11%） 中国平安、中国太保、财通证券涨超2%，中国人保、华安证券、中国人寿、新华保险、西南证券涨超 1%。 对于券商，西部证券认为，券商板块盈利和估值有所错配，看好后续修复空间。推荐两条主线，一是综 合实力较强、估值仍较低的中大型券商，二是推荐正在推进并购或有并购重组预期券商。 国金证券表示，2026年：1）主题一：居民存款搬家以及长钱长投带来高市场活跃度，利好经纪、两融 业务，市场成交额、两融余额有望维持在较高水平。2）主题二：资本市场韧性增强、波动性下降带来 的赚钱效应加强，投资收益率有望保持稳定或小幅提升，券商积极把握权益市场的机会，或继续增配其 他权益工具投资以及交易性金融资产的股票。3）主题三：推动直接融资、助力科创企业融资带来投行 业务机会。券商作为资本中介在支持科创企业融资方面起到重要作用，无论是科创板"1+6"改革、还是 支持科创债的发展，在便利科创企业融资的同时也给券商带来更多业务机会。根据证监会规划，未来还 可能推出创业板改革、储架发行制度等政策，预计IPO节奏将进一步常态化。4）主题四：券商合并、 打造一流投行带 ...

今天中国平安涨幅一度超1.6%，刷新近期4年新高，而证券保险ETF一度拉涨超0.9%，过去356天表现+71.69%，这里如情绪回落，短期有 回调需求。 | 出版 | For T | 简约 | ▲庭观 | | 512070 证券保险ETF | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 松中温泉市 | 14-100 1 1 1 10 | 反击以线 And 20 | | 0.933 | +0.009 | | | | | | | | | +0.97% | | | | | 0. 950 | 交易状态 | | 交易中 | | | | | | 委比 | -27.76% 李芳 | -183200 | | | | | 0. 900 | | 0.937 | 1 47 万 -40.0万 | | | | | | | 0.936 | 587 7 +2.847 | | | | | 0 850 | | 0.935 | 16597 | | >> 区域统计 | | | | | | | | 开始 | 2024/07/09 < > | | 结束 | 2025/12/23 « ▶ | 总个数: ...

Core Viewpoint - The stock indices showed mixed performance this week, with significant inflows into ETFs, particularly those related to the CSI A500, indicating investor confidence in sectors aligned with China's economic transformation [1][2][10]. Inflows and Market Performance - Total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 8.69 trillion yuan, with the Shanghai index closing at 3890.45 points, up 0.03%, and the Shenzhen index at 13140.21 points, down 0.89% [2]. - The combined net inflow into stock ETFs and cross-border ETFs was 688.11 billion yuan, with broad-based index ETFs seeing a net inflow of 474 billion yuan [2][5]. Sector-Specific ETF Trends - The CSI A500-related ETFs experienced a net inflow of 326 billion yuan, reflecting strong investor interest in this index as it aligns with the ongoing economic restructuring [5][10]. - Communication, securities, and insurance ETFs attracted significant capital, with net inflows of 12.12 billion yuan, 12.05 billion yuan, and 10.79 billion yuan, respectively [12][15]. Outflows from Specific Sectors - Conversely, military-related ETFs faced substantial outflows, with the military leader ETF and military ETF seeing reductions of 26.84 billion and 7.54 billion shares, respectively, resulting in net outflows of 18.78 billion yuan and 9.35 billion yuan [15][21]. Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the current economic structure adjustment in China is creating opportunities in industries aligned with new productive forces, making the CSI A500 ETFs an attractive option for investors looking to capitalize on these trends [10][24].

Group 1 - On December 18, the A-share market showed mixed performance, with stock ETFs experiencing a net inflow of over 12.7 billion yuan [1] - As of December 18, the total scale of 1,280 stock ETFs in the market reached 4.6 trillion yuan, with a net inflow of 12.764 billion yuan calculated based on an increase of 9.406 billion fund shares [2] - Broad-based ETFs led the net inflow, amounting to 9.4 billion yuan, with the CSI A500 Index ETF seeing the highest inflow of 5.293 billion yuan [2] Group 2 - In the past five trading days, the CSI A500 Index ETF recorded a net inflow exceeding 30.8 billion yuan, while the CSI 300 Index ETF saw over 5.9 billion yuan in net inflow [2] - On December 18, 37 ETFs had net inflows exceeding 1 billion yuan, with the top three being E Fund's ChiNext ETF, A500 ETF from Huatai-PineBridge, and Huaxia Fund's A500 ETF, with net inflows of 1.936 billion yuan, 1.854 billion yuan, and 1.62 billion yuan respectively [2] - Leading fund companies continued to attract net inflows, with E Fund's Securities Insurance ETF seeing a net inflow of 507 million yuan, bringing its latest scale to 17.368 billion yuan [2] Group 3 - Industry-themed ETFs, such as those focused on military and gaming sectors, experienced significant net outflows, with the military leader ETF seeing a net outflow of 612 million yuan [4] - E Fund's fund manager Li Shujian believes that A-shares and Hong Kong stocks still hold significant valuation attractiveness compared to similar markets, with the potential for sustained appeal for long-term capital allocation [4] - ICBC Credit Suisse Fund anticipates that the A-share market may exhibit a volatile upward trend and a balanced structure driven by profit recovery, capital allocation, and policy support, recommending investment in core assets of the Chinese economy [4]

Group 1: Insurance Sector Performance - The insurance sector has shown strong performance, with China Ping An rising nearly 5%, China Taiping increasing by 3.5%, and China Life and Xinhua Insurance both up over 2.6% [1] - The Securities Insurance ETF (512070) has increased by over 12% year-to-date, with a scale of 16.2 billion yuan, tracking the CSI 300 Non-Bank Financial Index [1] - The Insurance Securities ETF (515630) has risen by over 8% year-to-date, with a scale of 499 million yuan, tracking the CSI 800 Securities Insurance Index [1] Group 2: Regulatory Changes - The National Financial Regulatory Administration has adjusted risk factors for insurance companies, lowering the risk factor for stocks held over three years from 0.3 to 0.27 and for stocks held over two years from 0.4 to 0.36 [2] - The adjustments are expected to release a minimum capital of approximately 19.8 billion yuan, which could lead to an additional 72.6 billion yuan in funds if fully allocated to stock investments [2] Group 3: Market Outlook for Securities and Insurance - Current market conditions indicate a mismatch between fundamentals and valuations in the brokerage sector, with potential catalysts including institutional resumption of trading and performance reports in January [3] - The insurance industry is viewed positively for systemic value reassessment opportunities, with asset management remaining a core driver of insurance company valuations [3] - The combination of wide fiscal and monetary policies is expected to enhance liquidity and stabilize economic growth, benefiting the long-term operating environment for the securities industry [4] Group 4: Health Insurance Innovations - The release of the first commercial health insurance innovation drug directory is expected to enhance the attractiveness of health insurance products [5] - This directory will provide clear guidelines for commercial health insurance, aiding companies in product design and risk management while promoting high-quality market development [5]

上证报中国证券网讯 12月15日，ETF午间收盘涨跌不一，卫星ETF(159206)涨2.74%，航空航天 ETF(563380)涨2.37%，证券保险ETF(512070)涨2.35%，港股通医疗ETF富国(159506)跌2.89%，港股创 新药ETF基金(520700)跌2.85%，港股通创新药ETF(159570)跌2.73%。 上证报中国证券网讯 12月15日，ETF午间收盘涨跌不一，卫星ETF(159206)涨2.74%，航空航天 ETF(563380)涨2.37%，证券保险ETF(512070)涨2.35%，港股通医疗ETF富国(159506)跌2.89%，港股创 新药ETF基金(520700)跌2.85%，港股通创新药ETF(159570)跌2.73%。 来源：上海证券报·中国证券网 来源：上海证券报·中国证券网 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in short-selling funds against Pop Mart has led to a significant decline in its stock price, with the short-selling activity reaching a one-year high since September [1][4]. Group 1: Short-Selling Activity - The cumulative funds for short-selling Pop Mart have reached a new high over the past year, contributing to the continuous decline in its stock price [1]. - An increasing number of foreign institutions have published bearish views on Pop Mart, echoing concerns similar to those seen during the AI bubble, indicating a lack of immediate evidence to confirm or refute these views [4]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Performance - The stock price of Pop Mart is expected to remain stagnant in the short term due to the absence of strong data supporting either bullish or bearish positions, leading to a stalemate [4]. - Concerns have been raised regarding the sustainability of high growth driven by the Labubu product, with fears of a high base effect impacting future performance [6][10]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The ideal time for bottom-fishing in Pop Mart would be when the premium expectations for Labubu diminish and market hopes for new hit products are low [5]. - Pop Mart is currently positioned between the expansion and peak phases of its product cycle, with market fears that it may soon transition into a downturn phase if new hit products are not developed [8][10].

Core Viewpoint - The market experienced a strong rebound in the first week of December, with the Shanghai Composite Index fluctuating around the 3900-point mark, driven by positive news and increased trading activity [1][11]. Market Performance - The market saw a "good start" with a rebound on Friday after some adjustments earlier in the week, indicating a mixed sentiment among investors but a notable increase in trading volume [1][11]. - The technology sector, particularly consumer electronics and semiconductors, showed rapid rotation alongside resource sectors, with financial stocks leading the index's upward movement [1][11]. Key Upcoming Events - The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision is expected on December 11, with strong market expectations for a rate cut, which could lead to significant market fluctuations [1][12]. - The Central Economic Work Conference is also set to take place, which may provide policy direction for the upcoming year [1][12]. Investment Strategy - Given the current market conditions, a balanced investment approach is recommended, focusing on both dividend and growth styles to navigate potential short-term volatility [2][12]. - The recent adjustment by the financial regulatory authority to lower risk factors for insurance companies is expected to enhance their investment capacity, particularly in high-quality assets and technology sectors [3][13]. Sector Insights - The adjustment of risk factors for insurance companies includes a reduction from 0.3 to 0.27 for stocks held over three years in the CSI 300 Index, and from 0.4 to 0.36 for stocks in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board held over two years, promoting long-term investment [3][13]. - The financial sector, particularly insurance and brokerage firms, is anticipated to act as a stabilizing force in the market, with potential for significant capital inflow due to regulatory support [3][13]. Consumer Electronics Sector - The consumer electronics market is showing positive trends driven by new consumption policies and AI advancements, with leading companies in the sector currently undervalued, providing a safety margin for investors [8][17].