证券研究报告 | 2025年11月02日 资本市场活跃度增强，经纪、利息业绩为主要驱动力。2025 年前三季度，受 市场活跃度持续增强影响，经纪业务收入 65.88 亿元，同比+66.14%。公司 期末货币资金 2,037 亿元，比 2024 年末增长 14.68%，主因客户资金增加。 受益于市场风险偏好提升，8 月以来两融余额屡创新高。前三季度，公司利 息净收入 32.7 亿元，同比大幅提升 1.51 倍；公司融出资金规模较年初提升 61%至 1,698 亿元，业绩增长主要系公司利息支出下降所致。 股权融资回暖，投行业务业绩提升。2025 年前三季度，市场股债融资规模较 去年同期增长，投行业务修复明显。2025 年前三季度，公司实现投行业务收 入 19.48 亿元，同比+43.51%。同期，公司股权承销金额 524.6 亿元，同比 提升 1.51 倍，IPO 主承销规模行业排名第六；债券承销金额 1.07 万亿元， 同比提升 17.18%。当前公司 IPO 储备项目为 8 单，排名行业第四，后续并购 业务有拓展潜力。 资管、自营业绩持续承压。前三季度，公司资管业务实现净收入 13.54 亿元， 同比-55. ...

Group 1 - The article highlights the establishment and recruitment of various mother funds across regions such as Sichuan, Guangxi, Jiangsu, Hunan, and Zhejiang, focusing on sectors like electronic information, equipment manufacturing, green food, aerospace, artificial intelligence, low-altitude economy, and new energy [2] - Chengdu's "Jiaozi Manyuan Industrial Development Fund" was launched with an initial scale of 1 billion yuan and a long-term goal of 5 billion yuan, aiming to support local industrial development [3][4] - The "Hechi Venture Capital Mother Fund" in Guangxi has completed registration with a total scale of 1 billion yuan, focusing on strategic emerging industries and traditional industry upgrades [6][7] - The "Nanjing Advanced Manufacturing Mother Fund" has been established with a scale of 5 billion yuan, targeting strategic emerging industries and optimizing the local industrial system [8][9] - The "Xingwang Mother Fund" in Hunan has been registered with a focus on advanced manufacturing and new energy sectors, employing a multi-layered investment model [12] - The "Dongguan Songshan Lake Industrial Investment Mother Fund" has been established with a total scale of 10 billion yuan, aiming to support strategic emerging industries and regional industrial upgrades [22][23] Group 2 - The "Central Enterprise Strategic Emerging Industry Development Fund" has been launched with an initial scale of 51 billion yuan, focusing on supporting state-owned enterprises in strategic emerging industries [24][25][26] - The "Zhejiang Social Security Science and Technology Innovation Fund" has been established with a scale of 50 billion yuan, aimed at supporting innovation-driven development in Zhejiang [27] - The "Jiangsu Social Security Science and Technology Innovation Fund" has also been launched with a scale of 50 billion yuan, focusing on strategic emerging industries and enhancing regional industrial resilience [28] - The "Wuxi High-Tech Investment Fund" has been registered with a scale of 2 billion yuan, focusing on the integrated circuit industry and supporting local enterprises [29][30] - The "Huatai New Energy Fund" has been established with a scale of 1 billion yuan, targeting new energy sectors and leveraging market-oriented operations [31] - The "Chengdu High-Level Talent Innovation and Entrepreneurship Fund" has been established to promote talent-driven industrial development [32] - The "Xiong'an Concept Verification Fund" has been set up with a scale of 20 million yuan, focusing on key industries such as artificial intelligence and biotechnology [33] - The "Zhuhai Zuguang New Intelligence Fund" has been registered, focusing on high-end intelligent manufacturing [34] - The "Nanning New Generation Information Technology Fund" has been established with a scale of 100 million yuan, focusing on artificial intelligence and regional economic development [35]

证券Ⅱ 华泰证券 25Q3 点评：净利润增 2%，经纪、信用带动增长 华泰证券（601688.SH） 证券研究报告/公司点评报告 2025 年 11 月 02 日 | 评级： | 买入（维持） | 公司盈利预测及估值 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 指标 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | 分析师：蒋峤 | | 营业收入（百万元） | 36,577.59 | 41,466.37 | 45,620.59 | 48,977.87 | 52,835.98 | | 执业证书编号：S0740517090005 | | 增长率（%） | 14.19 | 13.37 | 10.02 | 7.36 | 7.88 | | Email：jiangqiao@zts.com.cn | | 净利润（百万元） | 12,750.63 | 15,351.16 | 16,535.78 | 18,243.14 | 20,270.80 | | | | 增长率（%） | 15.36 | 20. ...

华泰证券（601688）2025 年三季报点评 推荐（维持） 去年同期因 AssetMark 交易导致基数较高， 业绩整体符合预期 公司研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 事项： ❖ 公司 ROE 同比稳定，主要原因是去年同期出售 AssetMark 带来浮盈，导致去 年同期基数较高。ROE 杜邦拆分上看，公司杠杆倍数提升明显，资产收益率 及净利润率因去年同期出售 AssetMark 导致同比有所下行。公司报告期内 ROE 为 6.2%，同比-0.5pct。单季度 ROE 为 2.5%，环比+0.6pct，同比-1.4pct， 杜邦拆分来看： 1）公司报告期末财务杠杆倍数（总资产剔除客户资金）为：3.68 倍，同比+0.33 倍，环比+0.4 倍。 2）公司报告期内资产周转率（总资产剔除客户资金，总营收剔除其他业务收 入后）为 3.5%，同比-0.4pct，单季度资产周转率为 1.4%，环比+0.1pct，同比 -0.5pct。 3）公司报告期内净利润率为 47.9%，同比-4.1pct，单季度净利润率为 48.2%， 环比+2.3pct，同比-13pct。 拆分来看：1）公司自营业务收入（公允价值变动+投资净收益 ...

Core Insights - Huatai Securities reported a revenue of 27.13 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 12.6% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 12.73 billion yuan, up 1.7% year-on-year, with an EPS of 1.35 yuan and an ROE of 7.2%, down 0.4 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The third quarter saw a revenue of 10.91 billion yuan, down 6.9% year-on-year but up 36.6% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of 5.18 billion yuan, down 28.1% year-on-year but up 32.7% quarter-on-quarter [1] Revenue Breakdown - Brokerage business revenue for the first three quarters was 6.59 billion yuan, a significant increase of 66.1% year-on-year, accounting for 23.7% of total revenue [1] - The average daily trading volume of stock funds in the market was 1.8723 trillion yuan, up 108.6% year-on-year [1] - The margin financing and securities lending balance was 169.8 billion yuan, up 28% from the beginning of the year, maintaining a market share of 7.1% [1] Investment Banking Performance - Investment banking revenue for the first three quarters was 1.95 billion yuan, an increase of 43.5% year-on-year [2] - The scale of equity underwriting reached 52.47 billion yuan, up 132.1% year-on-year, ranking 6th in the market [2] - The bond underwriting scale was 1,058.3 billion yuan, up 22.8% year-on-year, ranking 4th [2] Asset Management and Proprietary Trading - Asset management revenue decreased to 1.35 billion yuan, down 63.8% year-on-year, primarily due to reduced platform income after the sale of Assetmark [2] - The asset management scale as of the first half of 2025 was 627 billion yuan, up 23.9% year-on-year [2] - Proprietary trading net investment income significantly increased, with total investment income (including fair value) at 10.22 billion yuan, down 14.5% year-on-year [2] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company maintains profit forecasts for 2025-2027, expecting net profits of 15.882 billion, 17.550 billion, and 18.660 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 3.46%, 10.50%, and 6.32% respectively [3] - The current market capitalization corresponds to PB valuations of 1.01, 0.95, and 0.90 times for 2025-2027 [3] - The company maintains a "Buy" rating based on market activity [3]

【华泰证券点评10月PMI数据：制造业回落，政策需加力】11月1日，华泰证券点评10月制造业PMI数 据。10月制造业PMI从9月的49.8%降至49%，低于往年季节性水平；非制造业商务活动指数从9月的 50%微升至50.1%，部分受假期错位影响，工作日减少压制生产活动。假期错位使10月工业生产和出口 读数受扰动，消费指标获边际提振。鉴于PMI仍处偏弱区间，逆周期政策进一步加力或是提振制造业景 气度关键。 本文由 AI算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 和闭猎报 11.01 13:24:15 时六 【华泰证券点评10月PMI数据:制造业回落,政策 需加力】 11月1日,华泰证券点评10月制造业PMI数 据。10月制造业PMI从9月的49.8%降至49%,低于 往年季节性水平;非制造业商务活动指数从9月的 50%微升至50.1%,部分受假期错位影响,工作日 减少压制生产活动。假期错位使10月工业生产和出 口读数受扰动,消费指标获边际提振。鉴于PMI仍处 偏弱区间,逆周期政策进一步加力或是提振制造业 景气度关键。 本文由 Al 算法生成,仅作参考,不涉投资建议,使用风险自担 和讯财经 和而不同 迅达天 ...

Core Viewpoint - The lithium battery industry chain is experiencing a positive outlook due to strong demand driven by various factors, including domestic energy storage peak, new energy vehicle sales, and AI infrastructure in the U.S. [1] Production Data Summary - Battery production reached 138.6 GWh in November, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 1.5% [1] - Cathode production was 177,000 tons, showing a month-on-month decrease of 0.4% [1] - Anode production was 155,000 tons, with a month-on-month decline of 1.9% [1] - Separator production amounted to 1.89 billion square meters, marking a month-on-month increase of 3.3% [1] - Electrolyte production reached 107,000 tons, indicating a month-on-month growth of 12.0% [1] Demand and Supply Dynamics - Demand remains strong, primarily due to the upcoming peak in domestic energy storage grid connections in Q4 [1] - The new energy vehicle sector is experiencing a rush in orders ahead of the reduction of tax incentives next year [1] - European new energy vehicle sales are accelerating, and U.S. AI infrastructure is boosting energy storage demand [1] - The lithium battery industry chain is seeing a sustained upward trend in market conditions [1] Supply Constraints and Profitability - Supply has significantly slowed, leading to a phase of tight supply for energy storage batteries and most lithium battery materials [1] - Key materials such as batteries, lithium hexafluorophosphate, lithium iron phosphate, and anodes are expected to reach a turning point [1] - The industry outlook is positive for profitability improvement across all segments of the lithium battery material chain, with expectations for both volume and profit growth [1]

华泰证券点评10月制造业PMI数据称，10月制造业PMI较9月的49.8%回落至49%，亦较往年季节性水平 偏弱；非制造业商务活动指数较9月的50%小幅回升至50.1%，部分体现出假期错位的扰动，工作日同比 减少压制生产相关活动。总体而言，假期错位影响下10月工业生产和出口读数亦可能受到一定扰动，而 消费指标可能受到边际提振。往前看，考虑到PMI指标仍位于偏弱区间，逆周期政策亟需进一步加力或 为提振制造业景气度的关键。 ...

经济转型的"势"已形成，产业突破与资金再配置正在深刻重塑中国资本市场的生态格局。华泰证券研究 所所长、总量研究负责人、固收首席张继强近日在接受中国证券报记者专访时表示，今年以来我国的宏 观经济图景呈现诸多积极转变，经济尾部风险降低，新旧动能转换进入新阶段，通缩压力有所缓和，加 之国内外流动性保持充裕，资本市场生态持续改善。 在分析今年的市场主线时，"反内卷"作为一个共识性主题，频繁出现在各大券商的研报中。在张继强看 来，"反内卷"对推动中国经济供求平衡、改善营商环境、推动物价合理回升、促进企业盈利好转等都大 有裨益。不过，他同时表示，当前的供需不平衡产生的原因比2015年更为复杂。 张继强表示，随着"十五五"规划将为中长期发展定调，以及美联储开启降息周期推动全球流动性环境趋 于宽松，国内外资金对中国资产的关注度不断提升，中国资本市场长期向好的基础正不断夯实。 中国经济新旧动能转换进入新阶段 张继强表示，当前宏观叙事的变革是趋势性的，中国经济新旧动能转换进入新阶段，过去几年旧经济出 清更利好债市，而未来新经济崛起更利好股市。 "过去市场更多定价的是旧经济的出清以及价格的传导，但今年以来的各种产业进展让我们看到了 ...

● 本报记者 赵中昊 经济转型的"势"已形成，产业突破与资金再配置正在深刻重塑中国资本市场的生态格局。华泰证券研究 所所长、总量研究负责人、固收首席张继强近日在接受中国证券报记者专访时表示，今年以来我国的宏 观经济图景呈现诸多积极转变，经济尾部风险降低，新旧动能转换进入新阶段，通缩压力有所缓和，加 之国内外流动性保持充裕，资本市场生态持续改善。 张继强表示，随着"十五五"规划将为中长期发展定调，以及美联储开启降息周期推动全球流动性环境趋 于宽松，国内外资金对中国资产的关注度不断提升，中国资本市场长期向好的基础正不断夯实。 "反内卷"仍服务于高质量发展 在分析今年的市场主线时，"反内卷"作为一个共识性主题，频繁出现在各大券商的研报中。在张继强看 来，"反内卷"对推动中国经济供求平衡、改善营商环境、推动物价合理回升、促进企业盈利好转等都大 有裨益。不过，他同时表示，当前的供需不平衡产生的原因比2015年更为复杂。 "2015年的过剩产能主要存在于上游国企，供给侧改革效果显著。但当前的供需不平衡产生的原因更复 杂，民企、先进产能与地方保护等特征加大了处理难度，光伏和新能源车是典型行业。"张继强说，统 一大市场政策正 ...