Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that Zhenjiu Lidou (06979) experienced a significant decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, with revenue at 2.497 billion yuan, down 39.58% year-on-year, and net profit at 575 million yuan, down 23.54% year-on-year [1] - The company forecasts revenue growth rates for 2025-2027 to be -20.0%, 14.9%, and 9.4%, respectively, while net profit growth rates are expected to be -6.2%, 18.6%, and 10.0% [1] - The report assigns a "Buy-A" investment rating based on the average valuation of comparable companies for 2025 [1] Group 2 - In terms of product performance, the revenue for Zhenjiu, Lidou, Xiangjiao, Kaikouxiao, and others in 2025H1 was 1.492 billion, 611 million, 277 million, 81 million, and 36 million yuan, respectively, with year-on-year changes of -44.8%, -9.4%, -38.7%, -63.9%, and -54.7% [1] - The average price per ton for these products was 32.3, 34.9, 58.6, 13.7, and 2.1 thousand yuan, with year-on-year changes of -17.0%, -29.1%, -3.6%, -4.0%, and -5.3% [1] - Sales volume for these products was 4,612, 1,752, 473, 590, and 1,698 tons, with year-on-year changes of -33.5%, +27.8%, -36.4%, -62.4%, and -52.1% [1] Group 3 - The industry is currently experiencing a period of adjustment, with both volume and price declining [2] - The company launched new products, including Li Du Gao Liang 1965 and Li Du Wang series, targeting rigid consumption scenarios such as weddings and graduation celebrations, which led to an increase in Li Du brand sales [2] - Revenue from high-end, sub-high-end, mid-range, and below products in 2025H1 was 575 million, 982 million, and 940 million yuan, with year-on-year changes of -47.3%, -41.6%, and -30.9% [2] Group 4 - Revenue from distribution and direct sales channels in 2025H1 was 2.197 billion and 300 million yuan, with year-on-year changes of -41.8% and -16.6% [2] - As of the end of 2025H1, the company had 3,259 distribution partners, 1,025 experience stores, and 2,835 retailers, with changes of +55, -72, and -499 partners respectively [2]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy-A" investment rating to the company, with a target price of 10.82 RMB over the next six months, corresponding to a 29.53X valuation for 2025 [4][6]. Core Insights - The company reported a significant decline in revenue for the first half of 2025, with total revenue of 2.497 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 39.58%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 575 million RMB, down 23.54% year-on-year [1][2]. - Despite the overall industry downturn, the company's performance remained relatively stable, particularly in the Li Du brand, which saw a slight increase in sales due to new product launches targeting specific consumption scenarios [2][3]. - The gross margin improved slightly to 59.04%, primarily driven by an increase in the revenue share of high-margin products like Li Du, which accounted for 24.5% of total revenue [3]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company is expected to experience revenue growth rates of -20.0%, 14.9%, and 9.4% for the years 2025 to 2027, respectively. Net profit growth rates are projected at -6.2%, 18.6%, and 10.0% for the same period [4][8]. - The report indicates that the gross margin for high-end products is projected to be 67.7%, while the net profit margin is expected to stabilize around 23.02% for the first half of 2025 [3][10]. Financial Metrics - As of September 12, 2025, the company's market capitalization is approximately 33.14 billion RMB, with a total share capital of 3.39 billion shares [6]. - The report provides a detailed financial forecast, including total revenue estimates of 5.652 billion RMB for 2025, with a year-on-year decline of 20.0% [8][10]. Market Position and Competitive Analysis - The report compares the company's valuation with peers, indicating an average P/E ratio of 29.53 for 2025, suggesting a competitive positioning within the industry [9]. - The company has been actively adjusting its product offerings and marketing strategies to adapt to changing consumer preferences and market conditions, particularly focusing on mid to high-end segments [2][3].

Core Viewpoint - The company has launched an incentive plan for alliance merchants to promote long-term sustainable growth and development, with a focus on enhancing collaboration and performance within the "Wanshang Alliance" program [1][3]. Group 1: Incentive Plan Details - The incentive plan will utilize up to 169 million shares (5% of total shares) over the next five years, with the first grant expected in September 2025 [1]. - Eligible alliance merchants will have a lock-up period of 7 to 10 years, with performance targets determining the distribution of benefits [2]. - The plan will be adjusted based on company needs and market conditions, with the management committee determining eligibility based on performance and compliance [1][2]. Group 2: Performance and Market Impact - The "Wanshang Alliance" aims to address core channel pain points and establish sustainable competitive barriers, with the second season expected to continue strong momentum [3]. - In the first season, the program signed 2,418 alliance merchants and shipped to 1,182 merchants within 100 days, covering 30 provinces and 212 cities [3]. - The program integrates products, channels, and revenue mechanisms to tackle industry challenges, enhancing the role of distributors as "value co-creators" [3]. Group 3: Financial Projections - The company has a clear brand positioning and long-term strategic commitment, with expectations for revenue of 5.666 billion and 6.074 billion yuan in 2025 and 2026, respectively [4]. - Non-IFRS adjusted net profits are projected to be 1.312 billion and 1.443 billion yuan for 2025 and 2026, reflecting a decline in 2025 followed by growth in 2026 [4].

Core Viewpoint - The report from China Merchants Securities maintains a "strongly recommended" rating for Zhenjiu Lidu (06979), highlighting the innovative model that is expected to drive long-term growth [1][2] Group 1: Financial Performance and Projections - For the first half of 2025, the company is expected to clear its financial statements, with the launch of the "Dazhen" product aimed at addressing industry changes [1] - Projections for adjusted net profits for 2025-2027 are 1.41 billion, 1.54 billion, and 1.88 billion yuan respectively, with a corresponding price-to-earnings ratio of 26.8 times for 2025 [1] Group 2: Strategic Initiatives - The company announced an equity payment plan that does not involve issuing new shares, primarily funded through donations from the controlling shareholder and some purchases in the secondary market, not exceeding 5% of the total issued shares [1] - The announcement reflects the high strategic positioning of the Dazhen product, with significant support from the controlling shareholder, Wu Xiangdong, who integrates resources from his other companies to bolster Dazhen [2] Group 3: Market Position and Future Outlook - The Dazhen model is seen as effectively addressing current channel pain points, with its innovative approach possessing unique industry characteristics [2] - The adjustment period in the industry is viewed as a critical development phase for companies, with initial returns for alliance merchants already being realized, which is expected to positively influence future expansion [2] - Ongoing observation of the company's pricing management and consumer feedback on products is necessary, with a long-term positive outlook on the expansion of the Dazhen model [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that the company maintains a "strongly recommended" rating for Zhenjiu Lidu (06979), highlighting the innovative model that is expected to drive long-term growth [1][2] - The company has introduced a new product, Dazhen, to respond to industry changes, which is anticipated to contribute significantly in the second half of 2025 [1] - The adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 1.41 billion, 1.54 billion, and 1.88 billion respectively, with a corresponding price-to-earnings ratio of 26.8 times for 2025 [1] Group 2 - The announcement of the equity payment plan demonstrates the high strategic positioning of the Dazhen product, with the controlling shareholder providing financial support through donations and market purchases [2] - The integration of resources from other companies by the controlling shareholder, such as Jinliufu and Huazhi, reflects a strong commitment to establishing the Dazhen model as an industry benchmark [2] - The current industry adjustment period is viewed as a critical development phase for the company, with initial returns for alliance partners already being realized, which is expected to positively influence future partner expansion [2]

Core Viewpoint - Zhenjiu Lidu (06979) has seen a stock price increase of over 4%, currently trading at 10.07 HKD, with a transaction volume of 61.3 million HKD, following the announcement of the "Alliance Merchant Rights Payment Plan" aimed at promoting long-term sustainable growth [1][1][1] Group 1 - The "Alliance Merchant Rights Payment Plan" will initially set economic benefits corresponding to no more than 169 million shares, with the board having the authority to increase this based on circumstances [1][1] - As of now, 2,418 customers have signed up to become alliance merchants since the launch of the "Ten Thousand Merchants Alliance Plan" in May [1][1] - The second phase of the "Ten Thousand Merchants Alliance" is set to launch between September and December, with the first grant of the "Alliance Merchant Rights Payment Plan" expected in September [1][1] Group 2 - Zheshang Securities highlights the strategic launch of the major product "Dazhen" in June 2025, which, along with the innovative "Ten Thousand Merchants Alliance" model, could become a new growth driver for the company, with a mid-term target of reaching 6 billion RMB [1][1] - The company is viewed as having turned around from a situation of poor performance, with the "Dazhen product" becoming a phenomenon, leading to expectations of exceeding mid to long-term performance forecasts [1][1]

Core Viewpoint - Zhenjiu Lidu (06979) has seen a stock price increase of over 4%, currently trading at 10.07 HKD with a transaction volume of 61.30 million HKD, following the announcement of the "Alliance Merchant Rights Payment Plan" aimed at promoting long-term sustainable growth [1] Group 1: Company Initiatives - The "Alliance Merchant Rights Payment Plan" is set to allocate economic benefits corresponding to no more than 169 million shares, with the board having the authority to increase this based on circumstances [1] - As of now, 2,418 customers have signed up to become alliance merchants under the "Wanshang Alliance Plan" initiated in May [1] - The second phase of the Wanshang Alliance will commence between September and December, with the first grant of the "Alliance Merchant Rights Payment Plan" expected in September [1] Group 2: Market Analysis - Zheshang Securities (601878) highlights the launch of the strategic flagship product "Dazhen" in June 2025, which, along with the innovative Wanshang Alliance model, is anticipated to become a new growth driver for the company [1] - The mid-term target for "Dazhen" is projected to reach a scale of 6 billion RMB, driven by outstanding team capabilities and three major innovations [1] - The company is viewed as having turned around from a situation of poor performance, with the "Dazhen product" becoming a phenomenon, leading to expectations of exceeding mid-to-long-term performance forecasts [1]

Group 1 - Zhenjiu Lidu has launched a merchant equity payment plan to incentivize qualified merchants, promoting long-term sustainable growth and development [1] - The equity payment plan will source shares from the controlling shareholder's donations and purchases from the secondary market, with a total of up to 169 million shares initially set for donation or purchase [1] - This initiative is expected to optimize channel structure and enhance manufacturer cooperation, potentially leading to a new trend in the liquor industry [1] Group 2 - Shede Liquor has reported significant progress in its internationalization strategy, with overseas retail terminals reaching a total of 1,200 and duty-free stores increasing to 100 globally [2] - The company has expanded its international business to 40 countries and regions, with notable growth in the Southeast Asian market [2] - This expansion is likely to optimize the company's revenue structure and enhance its global brand influence [2] Group 3 - Jinhui Liquor announced that board member Wang Ning has resigned from his position but has been elected as a worker representative director [3] - Wang Ning has extensive experience in sales and management, which may assist in advancing the company's strategic initiatives [3] - The governance structure of the liquor industry is continuously improving, indicating a trend towards enhanced corporate governance [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the performance of the Hong Kong stock market, with all three major indices declining, while Zhenjiu Lidu (6979.HK) experienced a rise of 3.3% to HKD 9.7 due to the announcement of a new incentive plan aimed at promoting long-term sustainable growth [1] Company Summary - Zhenjiu Lidu announced the adoption of an Alliance Merchant Equity Payment Plan through its wholly-owned subsidiary, Zhenjiu Trading, which is designed to incentivize eligible alliance merchants [1] - The board believes that the implementation of this plan aligns with the best interests of the company and its shareholders [1] - The plan aims to reward eligible alliance merchants for their contributions to expanding the group's distribution network and brand coverage by providing economic benefits linked to shares and share value appreciation [1] - This initiative is intended to align the long-term interests of the alliance merchants with those of the group, further incentivizing and retaining eligible merchants while attracting new ones for the company's long-term success [1]

Group 1 - The core announcement from Zhenjiu Lidu (6979.HK) is the launch of the "Alliance Merchant Equity Payment Plan," which sets an initial economic benefit right corresponding to no more than 169 million shares for the Wan Shang Alliance [1][4] - The company initiated the Wan Shang Alliance plan in May, with 6,414 customers participating in the forum in the first quarter, and currently, 2,418 customers have signed up as alliance merchants [4] - The equity grant period for the "Alliance Merchant Equity Payment Plan" is set for five years, with the board having the discretion to adjust it based on various factors such as procurement scale, compliance records, cooperation duration, and contributions [4][7] Group 2 - The Wan Shang Alliance represents a new business model launched by Zhenjiu Lidu, focusing on deep collaboration between manufacturers and merchants to create a super product, Dazhen Zhenjiu, and to open up a golden sales track in the liquor market [7] - The company aims to establish a short, medium, and long-term revenue system to effectively promote the formation of a community of interests and a community of destiny among manufacturers and merchants [7] - Zhenjiu Lidu plans to launch the second season of the Wan Shang Alliance from September to December [8]