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珍酒李渡(06979.HK):主动调整蓄势 新品有望贡献增量
Ge Long Hui· 2025-09-15 19:57
Core Viewpoint - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, primarily due to industry-wide challenges, although the performance of the Li Du brand remained relatively stable [1] Revenue Summary - The company achieved a revenue of 2.497 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 39.58% [1] - Revenue breakdown by product for H1 2025: - Zhen Jiu: 1.492 billion yuan (-44.8%) - Li Du: 611 million yuan (-9.4%) - Xiang Jiao: 277 million yuan (-38.7%) - Kai Kou Xiao: 81 million yuan (-63.9%) - Others: 36 million yuan (-54.7%) [1] - The average price per ton for products showed a decline, with Zhen Jiu at 32.3 thousand yuan/ton (-17.0%) and Li Du at 34.9 thousand yuan/ton (-29.1%) [1] - Sales volume for products varied, with Li Du showing a positive growth of 27.8% [1] Profitability Analysis - The company's gross margin for H1 2025 was 59.04%, a slight increase of 0.28 percentage points year-on-year [2] - Gross margin by product: - Zhen Jiu: 58.3% (-0.9pct) - Li Du: 66.5% (-0.3pct) - Xiang Jiao: 58.7% (-0.1pct) - Kai Kou Xiao: 41.7% (-4.0pct) - Others: 4.4% (-6.8pct) [2] - The net profit margin for H1 2025 was 23.02%, an increase of 4.83 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a significant reduction in equity incentive expenses [2] Channel Performance - Revenue from distributors and direct sales channels for H1 2025 was 2.197 billion yuan and 300 million yuan, respectively, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 41.8% and 16.6% [1] - The number of distribution partners, experience stores, and retailers at the end of H1 2025 was 3,259, 1,025, and 2,835, with changes of +55, -72, and -499 respectively [1] Future Outlook - The company forecasts revenue growth rates of -20.0%, 14.9%, and 9.4% for 2025-2027, with net profit growth rates of -6.2%, 18.6%, and 10.0% for the same period [2]
国投证券:予珍酒李渡“买入-A”评级 新品有望贡献增量
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-09-15 08:45
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the reports indicates that Zhenjiu Lidou (06979) experienced a significant decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, with revenue at 2.497 billion yuan, down 39.58% year-on-year, and net profit at 575 million yuan, down 23.54% year-on-year [1] - The company is projected to have revenue growth rates of -20.0%, 14.9%, and 9.4% for 2025-2027, with net profit growth rates of -6.2%, 18.6%, and 10.0% for the same period [1] - Revenue from different product lines in 2025H1 showed significant declines, with Zhenjiu, Lidou, Xiangjiao, Kaikouxiao, and others generating revenues of 1.492 billion, 611 million, 277 million, 81 million, and 36 million yuan respectively, reflecting year-on-year changes of -44.8%, -9.4%, -38.7%, -63.9%, and -54.7% [1] Group 2 - The industry is currently undergoing an adjustment period with both volume and price declines, but the launch of new products like Lidou Gaoliang 1965 and Lidou Wang series has led to an increase in sales for the Lidou brand [2] - Revenue from different segments of liquor products in 2025H1 showed declines, with mid-to-high-end, next-to-high-end, and mid-range products generating revenues of 575 million, 982 million, and 940 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of -47.3%, -41.6%, and -30.9% [2] - Revenue from distribution and direct sales channels in 2025H1 was 2.197 billion and 300 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of -41.8% and -16.6% [2]
国投证券:予珍酒李渡(06979)“买入-A”评级 新品有望贡献增量
智通财经网· 2025-09-15 08:41
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that Zhenjiu Lidou (06979) experienced a significant decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, with revenue at 2.497 billion yuan, down 39.58% year-on-year, and net profit at 575 million yuan, down 23.54% year-on-year [1] - The company forecasts revenue growth rates for 2025-2027 to be -20.0%, 14.9%, and 9.4%, respectively, while net profit growth rates are expected to be -6.2%, 18.6%, and 10.0% [1] - The report assigns a "Buy-A" investment rating based on the average valuation of comparable companies for 2025 [1] Group 2 - In terms of product performance, the revenue for Zhenjiu, Lidou, Xiangjiao, Kaikouxiao, and others in 2025H1 was 1.492 billion, 611 million, 277 million, 81 million, and 36 million yuan, respectively, with year-on-year changes of -44.8%, -9.4%, -38.7%, -63.9%, and -54.7% [1] - The average price per ton for these products was 32.3, 34.9, 58.6, 13.7, and 2.1 thousand yuan, with year-on-year changes of -17.0%, -29.1%, -3.6%, -4.0%, and -5.3% [1] - Sales volume for these products was 4,612, 1,752, 473, 590, and 1,698 tons, with year-on-year changes of -33.5%, +27.8%, -36.4%, -62.4%, and -52.1% [1] Group 3 - The industry is currently experiencing a period of adjustment, with both volume and price declining [2] - The company launched new products, including Li Du Gao Liang 1965 and Li Du Wang series, targeting rigid consumption scenarios such as weddings and graduation celebrations, which led to an increase in Li Du brand sales [2] - Revenue from high-end, sub-high-end, mid-range, and below products in 2025H1 was 575 million, 982 million, and 940 million yuan, with year-on-year changes of -47.3%, -41.6%, and -30.9% [2] Group 4 - Revenue from distribution and direct sales channels in 2025H1 was 2.197 billion and 300 million yuan, with year-on-year changes of -41.8% and -16.6% [2] - As of the end of 2025H1, the company had 3,259 distribution partners, 1,025 experience stores, and 2,835 retailers, with changes of +55, -72, and -499 partners respectively [2]
珍酒李渡(06979):主动调整蓄势,新品有望贡献增量
Guotou Securities· 2025-09-15 06:39
Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy-A" investment rating to the company, with a target price of 10.82 RMB over the next six months, corresponding to a 29.53X valuation for 2025 [4][6]. Core Insights - The company reported a significant decline in revenue for the first half of 2025, with total revenue of 2.497 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 39.58%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 575 million RMB, down 23.54% year-on-year [1][2]. - Despite the overall industry downturn, the company's performance remained relatively stable, particularly in the Li Du brand, which saw a slight increase in sales due to new product launches targeting specific consumption scenarios [2][3]. - The gross margin improved slightly to 59.04%, primarily driven by an increase in the revenue share of high-margin products like Li Du, which accounted for 24.5% of total revenue [3]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company is expected to experience revenue growth rates of -20.0%, 14.9%, and 9.4% for the years 2025 to 2027, respectively. Net profit growth rates are projected at -6.2%, 18.6%, and 10.0% for the same period [4][8]. - The report indicates that the gross margin for high-end products is projected to be 67.7%, while the net profit margin is expected to stabilize around 23.02% for the first half of 2025 [3][10]. Financial Metrics - As of September 12, 2025, the company's market capitalization is approximately 33.14 billion RMB, with a total share capital of 3.39 billion shares [6]. - The report provides a detailed financial forecast, including total revenue estimates of 5.652 billion RMB for 2025, with a year-on-year decline of 20.0% [8][10]. Market Position and Competitive Analysis - The report compares the company's valuation with peers, indicating an average P/E ratio of 29.53 for 2025, suggesting a competitive positioning within the industry [9]. - The company has been actively adjusting its product offerings and marketing strategies to adapt to changing consumer preferences and market conditions, particularly focusing on mid to high-end segments [2][3].
珍酒李渡不再是中国第四大酱酒品牌了
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-02 07:57
Core Viewpoint - Zhenjiu Lidu has officially lost its position as the fourth largest sauce-flavored liquor brand in China, marking the end of its expansion era as it reports significant declines in revenue and profit for the first half of 2025 [2][4]. Financial Performance - Revenue for the first half of 2025 was 2.497 billion RMB, a decrease of 39.6% from 4.133 billion RMB in the same period of 2024 [3][4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 574.77 million RMB, down 23.5% from 751.72 million RMB year-on-year [3][4]. - Adjusted net profit fell by 39.8% to 613.20 million RMB from 1.018 billion RMB in the previous year [3][4]. - Operating cash flow turned negative at -322 million RMB, a drastic decline of 156.1% compared to 575 million RMB in the same period last year [5]. Product Performance - High-end product revenue dropped by 47.3%, with a gross margin decrease of 2.2 percentage points to 67.7% [7]. - Mid-range and lower-end products saw a revenue decline of 30.9%, but their gross margin increased by 2.6 percentage points to 46.8% [7]. - The main brand, Zhenjiu, experienced a revenue decline of 44.8%, falling from 2.702 billion RMB to 1.492 billion RMB [8][10]. Brand Strategy - The company's brand matrix strategy has failed, with all four core brands showing negative growth, leading to the loss of its previous market position [8]. - The high-end product line, including new releases, did not generate significant sales, indicating a failure in the high-end market strategy [8]. Channel Ecosystem - The number of distributors decreased by 6.8% to 7,119, with a significant drop in retail and experience stores [12]. - Prepayment balances fell by 20.1% year-on-year, indicating a decline in distributor confidence and willingness to pay [12]. - The introduction of the "Ten Thousand Merchants Alliance" model has seen limited success, with only 128 distributors joining by mid-2025 [12]. Industry Context - The challenges faced by Zhenjiu Lidu reflect broader issues within the mid-range liquor sector, with many companies experiencing profit declines and cash flow issues [13]. - The industry is transitioning from a focus on scale expansion to quality improvement, necessitating a more grounded operational approach [14].
珍酒李渡(06979):表观压力释放,新品起量可期
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-08-23 11:09
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 2.497 billion RMB for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 39.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 575 million RMB, down 23.5% year-on-year [2] - The company launched several new products in H1 2025, including Zhen 50 and Li Du Gao Liang 1965, aiming to enhance market presence and sales through a new alliance model [3] - The revenue breakdown by product shows significant declines, with Zhen Jiu and other brands experiencing revenue drops of 45%, 9%, 39%, and 64% respectively [3] Revenue and Profit Analysis - The company expects revenues to decline by 20.4% in 2025, followed by growth of 11.7% in 2026 and 16.8% in 2027 [5] - The adjusted net profit is projected to decrease by 1.9% in 2025, but increase by 19.6% in 2026 and 28.4% in 2027 [5] - The overall gross margin for H1 2025 increased by 0.3 percentage points to 59.0%, while sales and distribution expenses decreased by 38.5% year-on-year [4] Product and Pricing Strategy - Revenue from high-end, mid-range, and low-end products in H1 2025 was 580 million, 980 million, and 940 million RMB respectively, with year-on-year declines of 47%, 42%, and 31% [4] - The gross margin for high-end products decreased due to internal structural adjustments, while mid-range and low-end products saw margin improvements due to cost optimizations [4] Market Position and Future Outlook - The company has established a significant network of over 2,100 alliance partners for its new product line, which is expected to contribute positively starting in H2 2025 [3] - The report indicates that the company is leveraging its experience in high-end liquor operations to enhance the performance of its new product offerings [3]
李渡酒业擎旗,中国白酒申遗共创联盟北京站成立
Qi Lu Wan Bao· 2025-08-01 10:58
Core Viewpoint - The establishment of the "China Baijiu Heritage Co-Creation Alliance" in Beijing marks a significant step towards the cultural heritage protection and global recognition of Chinese Baijiu, particularly through the synergy of the Beijing Central Axis and the historical Li Du distillery site [3][7][15]. Group 1: Cultural Heritage and Historical Significance - The Beijing Central Axis and the Li Du distillery site represent a "dual heritage dialogue," providing a natural cultural dialogue point for the application of Chinese Baijiu for heritage status [7][8]. - The transformation of the Central Axis from a royal symbol to a public space parallels the evolution of Li Du from a historical distillery to a consumer-friendly product, showcasing the living heritage value [7][8]. Group 2: Advocacy and Representation - Chinese Baijiu ambassador Liu Na emphasized the connection between Li Du and the spirit of Chinese perseverance, linking the brand to historical struggles and achievements [9]. - The president of the Jiangxi Jinxian Enterprise Chamber of Commerce expressed pride in Li Du's revival, highlighting its role in promoting Chinese culture on a national and global stage [11]. Group 3: Product Development and Quality - The launch of Li Du Gaoliang 1965 is a tribute to the spirit of perseverance, reflecting the company's commitment to quality and cultural heritage [18][20]. - The product features a unique blend of aged spirits, enhancing its flavor profile and embodying the craftsmanship that has been passed down through generations [20]. Group 4: Future Aspirations and Community Engagement - The establishment of the "China Baijiu Heritage Co-Creation Alliance" signifies a new phase of broad societal participation and innovation in the heritage application process [21]. - The event concluded with a symbolic lighting ceremony, suggesting aspirations for Chinese Baijiu to become the 61st UNESCO World Heritage site, emphasizing the collective effort to promote and preserve Chinese cultural heritage [21].
探行业发展之势 论李渡创新之力——“文化引领 创新求变”媒体调研行举办
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-02 07:26
Group 1: Core Insights - The event "Cultural Leadership and Innovative Change" organized by Li Du Distillery highlights the importance of cultural heritage in the development of the liquor industry amidst deep adjustments [1] - Li Du's ancient brewing site, recognized as a national treasure, showcases the evolution of brewing techniques from the Yuan, Ming, and Qing dynasties, enhancing its cultural significance [3] - The integration of cultural storytelling and innovative tourism experiences is crucial for Li Du to connect with consumers and expand its market presence [5] Group 2: Technological Innovation - Li Du Distillery utilizes ancient brewing techniques and modern technology to create unique products, achieving a distinctive flavor profile described as "one sip, four fragrances" [6] - Collaborations with universities for research on ancient microbial brewing techniques and the establishment of a smart brewing facility demonstrate Li Du's commitment to technological advancement [8] - The implementation of AI technology in management, production, flavor science, and marketing aims to enhance product quality and consumer experience [10] Group 3: Market Positioning and Branding - Li Du's marketing strategies, including the launch of new products and innovative experiential centers, have positioned it as a leader in the competitive liquor market [11] - The brand's engagement with new media and interactive marketing campaigns has significantly increased its visibility and consumer engagement [13] - The focus on storytelling and cultural heritage is seen as a way to differentiate Li Du in a challenging economic environment, fostering a new growth logic for the industry [13]
茅台与中粮座谈、洋河/李渡上新、“世界名酒上海中心”拟建
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-29 04:52
Group 1 - Moutai Group and COFCO Group held a meeting to explore innovative cooperation models for mutual benefit and high-quality development [2] - Moutai's Chairman emphasized the importance of quality and innovation in maintaining the brand's global reputation [2] - During the 618 promotion, Moutai's product priced at 1499 yuan sold out quickly on Meituan, indicating strong demand [2] Group 2 - Yanghe launched three new products for the Dragon Boat Festival, featuring unique designs and cultural themes [2] - The new products include "Dream Blue·J-20" and "Dream Blue·Chinese Rocket," showcasing a blend of modern aesthetics and traditional values [2] Group 3 - Luzhou Laojiao announced the resignation of board member Qian Xu due to personal reasons [3] - The company will not appoint Qian Xu to any position within the company or its subsidiaries post-resignation [3] Group 4 - Several liquor companies received patent authorizations for innovative technologies and packaging [4] - Moutai received patents for a "cutting mud machine" and a "distillation water recovery system," enhancing production efficiency and sustainability [4] - Other companies like Langjiu and Songhe also received patents for their unique production and packaging solutions [4] Group 5 - Li Du launched "Li Du Sorghum 1965" at a promotional event, celebrating its historical significance and the spirit of perseverance [5] - The event featured discussions on the company's turnaround from losses to becoming the first Chinese liquor company listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [5] Group 6 - Fosun plans to establish a "World Famous Liquor Shanghai Center" to enhance the visibility and marketing of Chinese liquor brands [6] - The center aims to provide a platform for brand display, cultural exchange, and tasting experiences [6] Group 7 - Jiu Gui Jiu announced that both distribution and sales will exceed 100% in 2024, focusing on high-quality sales strategies [7] - The company aims to enhance brand, product, channel, and system capabilities to improve sales quality [7] Group 8 - Luzhou announced a total investment of 352.8 billion yuan in various liquor projects during an investment promotion event [7] - The projects cover 13 liquor-related initiatives, contributing to the local economy [7] Group 9 - From January to April, Guangdong Province's beer production increased by 1.3%, indicating a stable market [7] - The total beer production for April reached 416,500 kiloliters, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 13.1% [7] Group 10 - Japan's sake industry faces a raw material shortage crisis due to rising prices of cooking rice, affecting the supply of sake rice [7] - The Hyogo Prefecture Sake Rice Promotion Association is advocating for equal pricing between sake rice and consumption rice to ensure sustainable production [7]