8月5日，珍酒李渡(6979.HK)披露上半年业绩预告，预计实现营业收入24亿元-25.5亿元。同日，国际知名投行摩根士丹利(以下称大摩)发布研报，给予珍酒 李渡"增持"评级，引市场广泛关注。 | ANNON ALVUR (VAL 21111, V21 7 1113 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | China/Hong Kong Consumer China | | | | | | Stock Rating | | | Overweight | | | Industry View | | | | In-Line | | Price target | | | | HK$7.60 | | Up/downside to price target (%) | | | | 11 | | Shr price, close (Aug 5, 2025) | | | | HK$6.84 | | 52-Week Range | | | | HK$10.52-5.56 | | Sh out, dil, curr (mn) | | | | 3,271 | | Mkt cap, ...

Core Viewpoint - The announcement by Wu Xiangdong to enter the beer market with a new product called "Bull Market" has sparked significant discussion in the industry, coinciding with a notable rise in the stock price of Zhenjiu Liduo, which increased nearly 15% this week, reaching a new high since Q2 of this year [2][4]. Group 1: Company Developments - Wu Xiangdong's entry into the beer sector is influenced by the success of his earlier investment in Xinbah Beer, which has seen rapid sales growth, with an expected annual production of 5,000 tons and sales revenue of 190 million yuan in 2024 [3]. - Zhenjiu Liduo is set to launch the "Bull Market" beer in an aluminum bottle, priced at approximately 88 yuan per bottle, targeting high-end self-drinking and business gifting markets [5]. - The company anticipates a decline in revenue for the first half of 2025, projecting total revenue between 2.4 billion to 2.55 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 38.3% to 41.9% [4]. Group 2: Industry Trends - The white liquor industry is experiencing a shift towards new consumption trends, with major companies like Wuliangye and Yanghe accelerating the development of low-alcohol products to cater to younger consumers [2]. - Zhenjiu Liduo's strategy includes launching new flagship products to address industry challenges and declining demand, while also adjusting its growth pace to ensure long-term stability [5]. - The beer market is seeing a rise in craft beer popularity, with Xinbah Beer achieving a production increase from 750 tons in 2019 to over 5,000 tons in 2024, reflecting a nearly 50% annual growth rate [3].

8月5日晚间，珍酒李渡（6979.HK）发布业绩预警公告。 公司预计今年上半年营业收入为24亿元至25.5亿元，同比下降38.3%至41.9%；股东应占净利润预计下滑23%至24%；经调整后净利润预计下降39%— 40%。 去年上半年，公司营收为41.33亿元，同比增长17.46%；股东应占溢利7.52亿元。公司指出，业绩下滑主要受经济不确定性及近期的多项政策影响，白酒 消费减少，尤其是商务、社交宴请和送礼场合的减少。 在"新禁酒令"影响下，"难"已经成为白酒企业的共识。 据记者不完全统计，目前已有8家白酒上市公司发布公告，预计上半年业绩同比将有较大下滑。行业深度调整，马太效应愈发凸显，随着茅台、五粮液 （000858）等一线高端名酒的溢价空间下调，中小酒企和定位为次高端价格带的产品承压最为显著。 次高端产品恰好是珍酒李渡的核心支柱，去年公司约42%营收来自于此。珍酒李渡公司由珍酒、李渡、湘窖、开口笑四大品牌整合而来，其中，珍酒是其 最重要的品牌，旗下"珍十五"为核心单品。 但珍十五价格倒挂、电商平台价格混乱等问题一直存在。 珍酒淘宝官方旗舰店显示，当前珍十五珍藏版（53度500ml）优惠前价格为1200元， ...

Core Viewpoint - The company, Zhenjiu Lidu, has issued a profit warning, expecting a significant decline in revenue and profit for the first half of the year due to reduced consumption scenarios in the liquor market, particularly in business and social gatherings [1][4]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Zhenjiu Lidu anticipates revenue between 2.4 billion to 2.55 billion yuan for the first half of the year, representing a year-on-year decline of approximately 38.3% to 41.9% [1]. - The expected drop in net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be between 23% to 24% [1]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The decrease in liquor consumption scenarios, especially in business banquets, social gatherings, and gifting, has heavily impacted the company's performance [4]. - The high-end and mid-high-end products in the liquor industry have faced significant distribution challenges, which may have affected Zhenjiu Lidu's product sales [4]. Group 3: Strategic Response - Zhenjiu Lidu plans to launch a strategic flagship product, a light bottle liquor named "Dazhen," which is expected to contribute significantly to sales in the second half of the year [4]. - The company aims to strengthen the market penetration of existing flagship products and improve channel turnover while stabilizing the pricing system for distributors [4]. - Zhenjiu Lidu is also looking to explore new consumption scenarios by introducing mid-range and mid-high-end products targeted at events like weddings and birthday celebrations [4]. Group 4: Analyst Insights - Analysts from Huachuang Securities noted that Zhenjiu Lidu focused on inventory management in the first half of the year, controlling the supply of certain products while relaxing assessment requirements temporarily [5]. - The overall market demand has been under pressure, leading the company to prioritize inventory clearance and stabilize the distributor system rather than focusing on short-term performance targets [5]. - According to analysts from Fangzheng Securities, the company may have implemented stricter price control measures and accelerated inventory turnover in response to market conditions [5].

珍酒李渡还在公告中披露，为应对白酒需求下降并推动业务发展，公司采取了如下一些战略举措： （1）珍酒品牌于2025年6月推出新的战略性旗舰产品，旨在应对行业的主要挑战及需求，预期于下半年带来可观的销售贡献； （2）公司将采取周密的销售政策，并加大力度深化现有旗舰产品在核心区域市场的渗透率，加速渠道周转，稳定经销渠道的价格体系； 今年以来，号称是价值投资者最后"堡垒"的白酒股频频遭遇利空突袭，连行业龙头贵州茅台（600519.SH）都顶不住了，批价一度连遭下破，一些生肖酒的 价格也跌破了重要关口。 在这种情况下，8月5日，曾入选港股100强榜单的白酒股珍酒李渡（06979.HK）披露了2025年中期业绩预告。 营利双双暴降，股价却反涨 8月5日晚间，珍酒李渡披露了2025年上半年成绩单。 业绩预告显示，珍酒李渡预期上半年收入和利润双双出现大幅下滑。 预期上半年实现收入24.0亿元（人民币，下同）至25.5亿元，同比下降38.3%至41.9%；预期股东应占净利润同比下降23%至24%；而在非国际财务报告准则 计量下，预期经调整净利润同比下降39%至40%。 珍酒李渡表示，中期业绩暴降是由于经济的不确定性及若干近期政 ...

智通财经APP获悉，港股三大指数今日涨跌不一，恒指盘中重回两万五关后回落，截止收盘，恒生指数 涨0.03%或8.1点，报24910.63点，全日成交额为2152.35亿港元；恒生国企指数跌0.21%，报8932.68点； 恒生科技指数涨0.2%，报5532.17点。 浙商国际指出，港股市场基本面仍偏弱，资金面环境内外部分化，政策面后续或仅"托而不举"，情绪面 短期预计仍偏观望。鉴于市场中长期趋势已进入右侧区间，对于后续走势，该行不建议过度悲观。对于 中短期市场走势继续保持谨慎乐观的态度。 蓝筹股表现 比亚迪电子(00285)领涨蓝筹。截至收盘，涨6.72%，报37.8港元，成交额34亿港元，贡献恒指3.01点。 近期海外CSP大厂及相关液冷供应商发布25年二季度业绩及全年指引，业绩均超市场预期、Capex继续 上调。公开资料显示，公司产品线涵盖企业级通用服务器、存储服务器、AI服务器及液冷散热方案 等，公司及子公司为英伟达合作伙伴，与英伟达合作进行液冷研发。 其他蓝筹股方面，中芯国际(00981)涨3.14%，报52.6港元，贡献恒指11.33点；中国神华(01088 )涨 2.99%，报36.54港元，贡献 ...

#珍酒李渡将推超级啤酒命名牛市# 【珍酒李渡董事长吴向东：将推出"超级啤酒" 命名"牛市"】8月4 日，珍酒李渡集团董事长吴向东在个人视频平台宣布，将于8月8日推出新的一款超级啤酒"牛市"，要把 新的一种"悦人悦己生活方式带给大家"。（界面，泽塔) ...

8月5日，珍酒李渡集团（6979.HK）发布2025年中期业绩预告显示，1-6月营收同比增长28%-32%至58- 60亿元区间，净利润增幅达35%-40%突破15亿元。这份亮眼的成绩单，印证了公司在产品升级与渠道变 革方面的战略执行力。据中国酒业协会数据显示，同期白酒行业平均增速仅为8.3%，珍酒李渡的业绩 表现显著优于行业均值，其核心高端产品"珍三十"系列更以45%的营收占比，成为拉动增长的旗舰引 擎。值得注意的是，公司通过"梯度产品矩阵"成功覆盖800-3000元价格带，精准卡位商务宴请与礼品消 费场景，为即将到来的中秋国庆白酒消费旺季奠定了良好开局。 一、业绩增长的三大核心引擎 高端产品组合持续发力 "珍三十"系列产品营收占比提升至45%，同比增加9个百分点，其中定价2999元的典藏版单品实现翻倍 增长。公司实施的"梯度产品"策略形成"珍十五-珍三十-李渡1955"三级产品架构，有效覆盖千元价格 带。贵州怀仁10万吨优质基酒产能的释放，不仅保障了品质稳定性，更使高端产品毛利率提升至 82.3%。配合"大师工坊"限量定制服务，成功吸引高净值客户复购率达67%。 "智慧酿造项目"通过物联网技术实现蒸汽能耗 ...

珍酒李渡(6979.HK)午后进一步拉升，涨幅一度扩大至近11%，报7.58港元，股价创3月19日以来新高， 截至目前成交额放大至2.5亿港元。 消息面上，珍酒李渡集团董事长吴向东近日在个人视频平台宣布，将于8月8日推出新的一款超级啤 酒"牛市"，要把新的一种"悦人悦己生活方式带给大家"。据了解，这款啤酒新品将以铝瓶装亮相，零售 标价或将达到88元/瓶。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 10 HKD [1]. Core Views - The company is expected to experience a significant decline in revenue and profits in the first half of 2025, with total revenue projected to be between 2.4 to 2.55 billion HKD, representing a year-on-year decrease of 38.3% to 41.9%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be between 570 to 580 million HKD, down 23% to 24% year-on-year [1]. - The company is focusing on inventory clearance and stabilizing its distribution channels, with a strategic shift towards launching new products to mitigate the impact of declining sales [8]. - The introduction of a flagship product, "Da Zhen," priced at 888 HKD, aims to capture market share and enhance profitability through targeted marketing strategies [8]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2025 are estimated at 5.032 billion HKD, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 28.8% [4]. - Non-GAAP net profit for 2025 is forecasted at 1.151 billion HKD, a decrease of 31.31% compared to the previous year [4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is adjusted to 0.34 HKD, down from previous estimates [8]. Market Strategy - The company is actively adjusting its market strategy by reducing supply and focusing on core products to stabilize its market position [8]. - There is an emphasis on expanding market presence in key regions such as Guizhou, Henan, and Shandong, while also exploring new consumer trends with product diversification [8]. - The management team is experienced and has a strong understanding of market dynamics, which is expected to support long-term growth despite short-term challenges [8].