证券研究报告 F 名创优品（09896.HK） 买入-A(维持) 2024Q2 毛利率单季历史新高，海外直营市场持续拓展 2024 年 9 月 2 日 公司研究/公司快报 事件描述 公司近一年市场表现 资料来源：最闻，山西证券研究所 市场数据：2024 年 8 月 30 日 收盘价（港元）： 32.900 年内最高/最低（港元）： 59.850/28.200 入增速匹配。营收端，2024H1，公司实现营收 77.59 亿元，同比增长 25.0%。其 中，可比同店销售同比增长 7%，平均门店数量同比增长 19%。2024Q2，公司实 现营收 40.35 亿元，同比增长 24.1%，营收增速符合我们预期，其中，国内市场 收入同比增长 18.1%，环比 1 季度有所加快；海外市场收入同比增长 35.5%至 15.10 亿元。业绩端，2024H1，公司实现经调整净利润 12.42 亿元，同比增长 17.8%。 2024Q2，公司实现经调整净利润 6.25 亿元，同比增长 9.4%，经调整净利率 15.5%， 分析师： 同比下滑 2.1pct，剔除汇兑损益影响，经调整净利润同比增长 24.6%，经调整净 利率 15.6 ...

证券研究报告·海外公司点评·专业零售(HS) 名创优品（09896.HK） 2024H1 业绩点评：经调整净利润同比+18%， 期待海外直营店旺季表现 2024 年 09 月 02 日 买入（维持） | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------|----------|----------|----------|----------| | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | CY2023A | CY2024E | CY2025E | CY2026E | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 13838 | 16951 | 20540 | 24243 | | 同比 (%) | 39.42 | 22.49 | 21.17 | 18.03 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 2253 | 2539 | 3141 | 3766 | | 同比 (%) | 111.48 | 12.68 | 23.73 | 19.90 | | Non-IFRS 净利润（百万元） | 2,356.73 | 2,808.93 | 3,371.42 | 3,936.4 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Miniso (09896) with a target price of 32.9 HKD, indicating an expected return of over 20% within the next six months [1]. Core Insights - The company's revenue for H1 2024 reached 7.76 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 25.0%, driven by an 18.8% increase in average store count and a 7% increase in same-store sales [1]. - Adjusted net profit for H1 2024 was 1.24 billion CNY, up 17.8%, with an adjusted net profit margin of 16.0%, slightly down by 1.0 percentage points [1]. - In Q2 2024, revenue was 4.04 billion CNY, a 24.1% increase, while adjusted net profit was 630 million CNY, up 9.4% [1]. - The gross margin for H1 2024 improved to 43.7%, up 4.1 percentage points, attributed to a higher contribution from direct sales in overseas markets [1]. Revenue Breakdown - In H1 2024, revenue from mainland China was 5.03 billion CNY, a 17.2% increase, with same-store sales at 98.3% of the previous year's level [1]. - Revenue from overseas markets reached 2.73 billion CNY, a 42.6% increase, with same-store sales growing by 16.3% [1]. - As of H1 2024, overseas revenue accounted for 35.2% of total revenue, up from 30.9% in the same period of 2023 [1]. Store Expansion - The total number of Miniso stores reached 6,868 by H1 2024, with a net addition of 455 stores in the first half of the year [1]. - The number of TOP TOY stores was 195, with 47 new stores opened in H1 2024 [1]. Profitability Details - The sales and distribution expense ratio for H1 2024 was 19.6%, up 4.8 percentage points, mainly due to investments in direct stores in both domestic and overseas markets [1]. - General and administrative expense ratio was 5.4%, up 0.2 percentage points, primarily due to increased personnel-related expenses [1]. - The board approved a cash dividend of approximately 621 million CNY for H1 2024, with total returns to shareholders reaching about 1.4 billion CNY this year [1]. Investment Recommendation - The company is expected to continue competing globally through cost leadership and product differentiation, aiming to enhance its brand image and increase single-store GMV [1]. - Projected adjusted net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 2.8 billion CNY, 3.4 billion CNY, and 4.0 billion CNY, respectively [1].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [6]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 4.04 billion yuan in Q2 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 24.1%. Revenue growth for MINISO China, MINISO Overseas, and TOPTOY was 18.3%, 35.5%, and 24.3% respectively [10]. - The gross margin reached a historical high of 43.9% in Q2 2024, with adjusted net profit of 630 million yuan, up 9.4% year-on-year. Excluding foreign exchange gains and losses, the adjusted net profit increased by 24.6% [10]. - The company is experiencing steady same-store sales domestically, with a same-store sales recovery rate of 98.3% compared to H1 2023, and a year-to-date growth of 16.1% in offline GMV [10]. - The company is accelerating its store expansion, adding 189 new stores in H1 2024, primarily in first- and second-tier cities, while maintaining a stable franchise structure [10]. - The overseas market continues to grow rapidly, with a comparable revenue growth of 70% in the direct market and 19% in the agency market for H1 2024 [10]. - The self-developed product ratio for TOP TOY has increased to 35%, with a gross margin of approximately 60% [10]. - The company expects revenue for 2024-2026 to be 17.31 billion, 21.12 billion, and 25.48 billion yuan respectively, with comparable growth rates of 25.1%, 22.0%, and 20.7% [10]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q2 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 4.04 billion yuan, a 24.1% increase year-on-year. The gross margin was 43.9%, and adjusted net profit was 630 million yuan, up 9.4% year-on-year [10]. - For H1 2024, the company added 189 new stores, focusing on first- and second-tier cities, while maintaining a healthy inventory turnover [10]. Market Position - The company is actively exploring diverse store models, including MINISO LAND and 24-hour super stores, to enhance its market presence [10]. - The North American market remains a key growth driver, with 62 new stores added in H1 2024 and a same-store sales growth of 12% [10]. Future Outlook - The company maintains a revenue growth target of 10%-15% for the year, supported by a same-store sales recovery rate above 97% in Q3 [10]. - The global expansion strategy is expected to continue driving revenue growth, with projected revenues of 17.31 billion, 21.12 billion, and 25.48 billion yuan for 2024-2026 [10].

2024 年 9 月 2 日 公司研究 总门店数突破 7000 家，推出 20 亿港元回购计划 ——名创优品（9896.HK）2024 年中报点评 要点 公司 2Q2024 营收同增 24.1%，公司权益股东应占利润同增 9.0% 8 月 30 日,公司公布 2024 年二季报：1H2024 实现营业收入 77.6 亿元，同增 25.0%,实现公司权益股东应占利润 11.7 亿元，对应基本 EPS 为 0.94 元，同 增 17.5%；实现经调整净利润 12.4 亿元，同增 17.8%。 单季度拆分来看，2Q2024 实现营业收入 40.4 亿元，同增 24.1%，实现公司 权益股东应占利润 5.9 亿元，同增 9.0%，对应基本 EPS0.47 元，同增 9.3%； 实现经调整净利润 6.2 亿元，同增 9.4%。 公司 2Q2024 综合毛利率同比上升 4.10pct，期间费用率同比上升 6.63pct 1H2024 公司综合毛利率为 43.69%，同比上升 4.10 个百分点。单季度拆分 来看，2Q2024 公司综合毛利率为 43.95%，同比上升 4.10 个百分点。公司 毛利率同比高增主要由于：1） ...

证券研究报告 | 2024年09月02日 名创优品（09896.HK） 优于大市 二季度营收同比增长 24%，海外门店加速扩张 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------|-------|--------|--------|--------|--------| | 盈利预测和财务指标 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 营业收入(百万元) | 9,926 | 13,839 | 17,395 | 21,170 | 25,235 | | (+/-%) | -2.0% | 39.4% | 25.7% | 21.7% | 19.2% | | 净利润(百万元) | 1065 | 2253 | 2755 | 3330 | 3958 | | (+/-%) | 85.7% | 111.5% | 22.3% | 20.9% | 18.9% | | 每股收益（元） | 0.47 | 1.78 | 2.19 | 2.64 | 3.14 | | EBIT Margin | 10.3% | 18.2% | 18 ...

投资要点 ❑ 8 月 30 日公司发布二季度财报： 1） 单 Q2 营收 40.35 亿元（+24%），经调整净利润 6.25 亿元（+9.4%）。经调整 净利润同比增速放缓主要系汇率原因：23Q2 汇兑收益约 6610 万元，24Q2 汇兑损失 420 万元，若剔除汇兑损益的影响，经调整净利润同比+24.6%。公 司稳步推进 IP 战略，Q2 毛利率 43.9%再创新高（同比+4.1pct，环比 +0.5pct），经调整净利率 15.5%（同比-2.1pct，环比-1.1pct）。 2） 上半年营收 77.6 亿元（+25%），经调整净利润 12.4 亿元（+18%），上半年公 司可比同店销售增长 7%，门店数增加 19%。 ❑ MINISO 海外：直营稳健成长，海外本地化仍处初级阶段 1） Q2、H1 海外营收分别 15.1 亿元（+35%）、27.3 亿元（+43%）。截至 Q2 末， MINISO 海外门店共 2753 家，占全部门店的 40%。Q2 净增 157 家，拆分来 看，亚洲（除中国）、拉美、欧洲、北美、其他地区分别净增 82 家、21 家、 7 家、43 家、4 家。H1 海外共计新增 2 ...

股 票 研 究 海 外 公 司 （ 中 国 香 港 ） 证 券 研 究 报 告 国泰君安版权所有发送给上海东方财富金融数据服务有限公司.东财接收研报邮箱.ybjieshou@eastmoney.com p1 海外拓店提速释放，旺季表现值得期待 名创优品(9896) [Table_Industry] 批零贸易业 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 ——名创优品 2024Q2 业绩点评 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2024.08.31 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------|-------------------------------------|------------------|-------| | | | | | | | [table_Authors] 刘越男 ( 分析师 ) | 苏颖 ( 分析师 ) | | | | 021-38677706 | 021-38038344 | | | | liuyuenan@gtjas.com | suying@gtjas.com | | | 登记编号 | S0880516030003 | S088052211000 ...

Financial Performance - For the six months ended June 30, 2024, the company's revenue increased by 25.0% to RMB 7,758,743,000 compared to RMB 6,206,330,000 in the same period of 2023[3]. - Gross profit for the same period rose by 37.9% to RMB 3,389,786,000, up from RMB 2,457,392,000 year-on-year[3]. - Adjusted net profit for the six months ended June 30, 2024, was RMB 1,241,886,000, reflecting a 17.8% increase from RMB 1,054,220,000 in the prior year[3]. - Adjusted EBITDA for the same period rose by 26.0% to RMB 1,967,354,000, compared to RMB 1,561,788,000 in 2023[3]. - The operating profit for the six months ended June 30, 2024, was RMB 1,494.8 million, compared to RMB 1,265.9 million for the same period in 2023[33]. - Net profit for the period grew by 15.7% from RMB 1,017.9 million to RMB 1,177.4 million[47]. - Basic earnings per share increased to RMB 0.94 for the six months ended June 30, 2024, compared to RMB 0.81 in the previous year[94]. - The company’s net profit for the six months ended June 30, 2024, was RMB 1,177,379 thousand, up 15.7% from RMB 1,017,918 thousand in 2023[95]. Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from mainland China rose by 17.2% to RMB 5,026.7 million, driven by a 16.5% increase in revenue from offline stores and a 37.9% increase from the TOP TOY brand[35]. - Revenue from overseas markets surged by 42.6% to RMB 2,732.0 million, accounting for 35.2% of total revenue, up from 30.9% in the same period last year[35]. - Total revenue for the period reached 7,809,027 thousand RMB, reflecting a significant increase compared to previous periods[100]. - For the six months ended June 30, 2024, total external revenue reached RMB 7,758,743 thousand, an increase from RMB 6,206,330 thousand for the same period in 2023, representing a growth of approximately 25.0%[110]. Store Expansion - The number of MINISO stores increased from 6,413 as of December 31, 2023, to 6,868 as of June 30, 2024, while TOP TOY stores grew from 148 to 195[11]. - As of June 30, 2024, the total number of Miniso stores reached 6,868, an increase from 5,791 stores in 2023, representing a growth of approximately 18.6%[13]. - In mainland China, the number of Miniso stores increased from 3,604 in 2023 to 4,115 in 2024, marking a growth of about 14.2%[17]. - The number of TOP TOY stores in mainland China grew from 118 in 2023 to 195 in 2024, reflecting a significant increase of approximately 65.3%[15]. - In overseas markets, the total number of stores increased from 2,187 in 2023 to 2,753 in 2024, a growth of about 25.9%[13]. Operational Efficiency - The company launched over 940 new SKUs on average each month, providing a wide product range of approximately 10,100 core SKUs[12]. - The overall closure rate of Miniso stores in mainland China for the six months ending June 30, 2024, was 3.6%, consistent with the previous year[16]. - Sales and distribution expenses rose by 65.8% from RMB 918.0 million to RMB 1,522.1 million, driven by investments in direct-operated stores, particularly in strategic overseas markets like the United States[40]. Cash Flow and Investments - Operating cash flow increased by 4.9% to RMB 1,293.8 million, with free cash flow at RMB 991.0 million[50]. - The company reported a significant cash inflow from the disposal of other investments, amounting to RMB 4,077,046 thousand in 2024, compared to RMB 3,753,449 thousand in 2023[104]. - The company’s investment in property, plant, and equipment, and intangible assets amounted to RMB 96,115 thousand in 2023, increasing to RMB 302,784 thousand in 2024[104]. Shareholder Returns - The company declared a special cash dividend of $0.2900 per American Depositary Share, totaling approximately $90.5 million, paid on April 9, 2024[92]. - The board has proposed an interim cash dividend of $0.0686 per ordinary share, totaling approximately $85.5 million[143]. - The company repurchased a total of 1,230,200 shares at a total cost of HKD 40.3 million and 254,600 American Depositary Shares at a total cost of USD 4.8 million during the six months ended June 30, 2024[86]. Market Strategy - The company plans to continue expanding its store network and product offerings to meet diverse consumer needs[11]. - The company plans to focus on expanding its TOP TOY brand presence in first and second-tier cities while also penetrating lower-tier cities in mainland China[17]. - The company plans to expand its store network in lower-tier cities in mainland China while optimizing its overseas operations in strategic markets like North America, Asia, and Europe[31]. Corporate Governance - The company has complied with all applicable provisions of the Corporate Governance Code for the six months ended June 30, 2024, except for the recommendation regarding the separation of the roles of Chairman and CEO[79]. - The company believes that having the same individual serve as both Chairman and CEO ensures consistent leadership and effective strategic planning[81].

Financial Performance - Revenue for the quarter increased by 24.1% to RMB 4,035.2 million (USD 555.3 million), surpassing RMB 4 billion for the first time[11] - Gross profit rose by 36.9% to RMB 1,773.3 million (USD 244.0 million), with a gross margin of 43.9%, a historical high compared to 39.8% in the same period last year[11] - Operating profit increased by 8.9% to RMB 751.5 million (USD 103.4 million) and net profit grew by 8.1% to RMB 591.4 million (USD 81.4 million)[11] - Adjusted net profit rose by 9.4% to RMB 625.0 million (USD 86.0 million), with an adjusted net profit margin of 15.5%[11] - For the first half of 2024, revenue increased by 25.0% to RMB 7,758.7 million (USD 1,067.6 million) and gross profit grew by 37.9% to RMB 3,389.8 million (USD 466.5 million)[14] - Revenue for the first half of 2024 reached RMB 7,758.7 million (USD 1,067.6 million), a 25.0% year-on-year growth driven by an 18.8% increase in average store count and approximately 7% same-store sales growth[29] - Revenue from overseas markets grew by 42.6% to RMB 2,732.0 million (USD 375.9 million), accounting for 35.2% of total revenue, up from 30.9% in the same period of 2023[30] - The overseas market revenue grew by 35.5% to RMB 1.51 billion in the second quarter of 2024, breaking previous records[21] Store Expansion - The number of MINISO stores reached 6,868 as of June 30, 2024, with a net addition of 455 stores in the first half of the year[14] - The number of MINISO stores in mainland China was 4,115, with a net addition of 189 stores during the same period[14] - Overseas MINISO stores totaled 2,753, with a record net addition of 266 stores, compared to 72 stores in the same period last year[14] - The number of MINISO stores reached 6,868 as of June 30, 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 1,077 stores, with 502 net new stores added in the first half of 2024[16][17] - The number of stores in mainland China increased to 4,115 as of June 30, 2024, up by 511 stores compared to the same date in 2023[62] - The number of stores in Asia (excluding China) reached 1,484 as of June 30, 2024, an increase of 278 stores year-over-year[65] - The company plans to continue expanding its store network, particularly in lower-tier cities in mainland China, to enhance market penetration[60] Profitability Metrics - Adjusted EBITDA for the first half of 2024 increased by 26.0% to RMB 1,967.4 million (USD 270.7 million), with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 25.4%[14] - Adjusted EBITDA was RMB 1,002.0 million (USD 137.9 million), reflecting a year-on-year increase of 17.1%[27] - The adjusted net profit margin for the three months ended June 30, 2024, was 15.5%, down from 17.6% in the same period of 2023[57] - Adjusted net profit for the first half of 2024 grew by 18% year-on-year, with an adjusted EBITDA increase of 26%[18] - Basic and diluted earnings per American Depositary Share (ADS) for the June quarter were RMB 1.88 (USD 0.26), a 9.3% increase year-on-year[28] - The adjusted earnings per share (diluted) for the six months ended June 30, 2024, was RMB 0.99, compared to RMB 0.83 in the same period of 2023[57] Expenses and Investments - Selling and distribution expenses increased by 72.5% year-on-year to RMB 826.1 million, primarily due to investments in direct-operated stores in strategic overseas markets[24] - General and administrative expenses rose by 38.1% year-on-year to RMB 227.2 million, driven by personnel-related costs associated with business growth[25] - Free cash flow for the first half of 2024 was RMB 991.0 million (USD 136.4 million) with capital expenditures of RMB 302.8 million (USD 41.7 million)[14] Future Outlook - The company plans to maintain its revenue growth target of 20% to 30% for 2024, with an adjusted net profit target of RMB 2.8 billion or higher[18] - The company aims to repurchase up to 10% of its total outstanding shares within the next 12 months, believing it aligns with the best interests of the company and its shareholders[18] - The company plans to continue expanding its direct-operated stores, particularly in strategic overseas markets like the United States, with a total of 343 overseas direct-operated stores as of June 30, 2024[33] - The company plans to continue expanding its market presence and investing in new product development to drive future growth[53] Non-IFRS Metrics - The adjusted net profit is defined as profit excluding equity-settled share payment expenses, providing a clearer view of operational performance[44] - Adjusted EBITDA is calculated as adjusted net profit plus depreciation, amortization, finance costs, and income tax expenses, allowing for a comprehensive assessment of profitability[44] - The adjusted net profit margin is calculated by dividing adjusted net profit by revenue, offering insights into profitability relative to sales[45] - The company uses non-IFRS financial metrics to evaluate operational performance and inform business planning, which may differ from IFRS metrics[45] - Miniso's management believes that these non-IFRS metrics provide useful information for investors to understand and assess operational performance[45] - The company acknowledges the limitations of non-IFRS metrics, including their inability to reflect all income and expense items impacting operations[46] Risks and Forward-Looking Statements - Future business development and financial performance are subject to various risks and uncertainties, including market demand and competitive landscape[47] - The company does not undertake any obligation to update forward-looking statements unless required by applicable law[47]