港股通 证券研究报告 名创优品 (9896 HK) 拟 63 亿入股永辉，深化线下零售布局 华泰研究 动态点评 2024 年 9 月 24 日│中国香港 零售 拟收购永辉 29.4%股权成为第一大股东，战略协同强化线下零售布局 9 月 23 日，名创优品发布公告，拟通过协议转让收购牛奶公司、京东世贸、 宿迁涵邦分别持有的永辉 21.08%、4.05%、4.27%股权，合计作价 62.7 亿 人民币。本次交易完成后，名创优品将通过全资附属公司骏才国际持有永辉 超市 29.4%股份，并成为第一大股东，收购完成后财务层面二者不合并财务 报表，公司拟以权益法确认永辉投资收益。我们认为名创未来仍将以兴趣消 费为核心持续打造 IP 产品，并通过与永辉的业务资源共享，提升双方供应 链的规模优势、渠道的运营效率，此次收购永辉超市对名创利润端的影响需 持续跟踪，后续需观察永辉超市的调改成效。我们暂不考虑股权收益、维持 24-26 年经调整净利预期 28.8、36.8、46.0 亿元，参考可比公司 24 年彭博 一致预期 25xPE，考虑直营市场短期对公司 OPM 仍有小幅拖累，维持公司 24 年 20xPE，维持目标价 51. ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of HKD 51.21 [8][9]. Core Views - The report highlights the company's undervaluation and high return potential, particularly in the context of the anticipated interest rate cuts, which are expected to benefit both the numerator (North American store expansion and same-store growth) and the denominator (discount rate) [2][4]. - The company is expected to see a recovery in same-store sales growth in Q4, driven by new IP launches and a lower base effect from the previous quarter [3][4]. - North America is projected to continue its rapid growth, with the potential for improved profitability as the company optimizes its store operations and expands its franchise model [4][5]. Summary by Sections Domestic Market - In Q3 2023, the domestic same-store sales growth was impacted by a high base effect due to the popularity of the "Barbie" IP products. However, new IP products and the expansion of flagship stores are expected to support revenue growth in Q4 [3]. - The company anticipates a year-on-year revenue growth of high single digits to low double digits in Q3, with operating profit benefiting from an increased sales mix of IP products and direct sales [3]. Overseas Market - The North American market is expected to accelerate its growth due to the favorable interest rate environment, which may reduce price competition. The company plans to introduce a franchise model to enhance store expansion and optimize rental and personnel costs [4]. - The report forecasts that overseas revenue will continue to show high growth in Q3, supported by the rapid expansion in North America and Southeast Asia [4]. Financial Projections - The company’s revenue is projected to grow significantly, with expected revenues of RMB 17.32 billion in 2024, representing a 50.97% increase from 2023. Net profit is expected to reach RMB 2.88 billion, a 62.64% increase [6][14]. - The report provides a detailed financial outlook, including an expected EPS of RMB 2.28 for 2024 and a PE ratio of 13.10 [6][14]. TOPTOY Growth - TOPTOY is expected to maintain a steady growth trajectory through continuous iteration of its UE model and optimization of store formats, with ongoing trials in overseas markets [5].

证券研究报告 | 半年报点评 gszqdatemark 2024 09 13 年 月 日 名创优品（09896.HK） 维持高速增长，长期再蓄力 事件：1）8 月 30 日，公司发布 2024 年中期业绩，2024Q2 公司实现营业收入 40.35 亿元/同比+24.1%，经营利润达 7.5 亿元/同比+8.9%，经调整净利润为 6.25 亿元/同比+9.4%，剔除净汇兑损益后经调整净利润同比+24.6%，剔除净汇兑损 益经调整净利率同比+0.1pct 至 15.6%。2）同时，公司发布股份回购计划，拟在 未来一年内回购不超过已发行股份总数 10%股权。3）公司 2024 年进行中期分红 合计 6.2 亿。 国内：门店扩张稳步推进，同店表现环比改善。1）国内 MINISO：2024Q2 国内 MINISO 门店净增 81 家/增量环比-27 家，其中一线/二线城市分别净增 9/41 家， 至期末门店数量达 4115 家/同比+511 家（门店数量同比+14.2%），门店扩张计划 稳步推进；1-6 月公司同店表现 98.3%，而 1-3 月同店表现约 98%，因此 Q2 同 店表现仍然维持微负水平，环比改善，Q ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [4]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of approximately 7.759 billion RMB in H1 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 25%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was about 1.17 billion RMB, up 16.45% year-on-year, with an adjusted net profit of 1.24 billion RMB, reflecting a growth of 17.8% [5]. - The board approved a share buyback plan, intending to repurchase up to 2 billion HKD worth of shares over the next 12 months [5]. - The second quarter's performance met expectations, with a stable adjusted net profit margin. In Q2 2024, the company reported a revenue of 4.04 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 24.1% [5]. - The domestic TOP TOY and overseas direct store expansions showed significant breakthroughs, with a total of 455 new stores opened in H1 2024 [5]. - The company continues to implement its long-term strategy focusing on cost-effectiveness, globalization, product innovation, and IP design, with expectations for net profits of 2.6 billion RMB in 2024 and 3.2 billion RMB in 2025 [6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of approximately 7.759 billion RMB, a 25% increase year-on-year. The net profit attributable to shareholders was around 1.17 billion RMB, reflecting a 16.45% increase year-on-year [5]. - The second quarter saw a revenue of 4.04 billion RMB, up 24.1% year-on-year, with a gross margin increase of 4.1 percentage points to 43.9% [5]. Store Expansion - The company opened a total of 455 new stores in H1 2024, with 189 in mainland China and 266 in overseas markets [5]. - The average number of stores increased by 18.8%, and same-store sales grew by 7% [5]. Strategic Outlook - The company is focusing on multi-store formats to cover more consumer scenarios and demographics domestically, while its overseas business is in an aggressive expansion phase [6]. - The product development capabilities are continuously improving, as evidenced by the increasing proportion of IP products and breakthroughs in TOP TOY's self-developed products [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Miniso Group (9896.HK) [2] Core Views - The company's revenue for the first half of 2024 reached 77.59 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 25.0%, with adjusted net profit at 12.42 billion RMB, up 17.8% [1] - The company continues to expand its store network, aiming to open 900-1100 new stores globally in 2024, with a total of 6,868 stores as of June 30, 2024 [1] - The report highlights strong performance in overseas markets, with revenue growth of 42.6% year-on-year in the first half of 2024 [1] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 24H1, the company achieved a revenue of 77.59 billion RMB, with a domestic revenue of 50.27 billion RMB (up 17.2%) and overseas revenue of 27.32 billion RMB (up 42.6%) [1] - Adjusted net profit margin for 24H1 was 16.2%, reflecting a stable profitability despite increased costs due to store expansion [1] Store Expansion - As of June 30, 2024, the company had opened 6,868 stores, with 4,115 in China and 2,753 overseas, marking an increase of 1,077 stores year-on-year [1] - The company plans to add 340-450 domestic stores and 550-650 overseas stores in 2024, with progress at 42%-54% for domestic and 41%-48% for overseas as of mid-2024 [1] Future Projections - The report forecasts adjusted net profits of 28.28 billion RMB, 34.87 billion RMB, and 41.67 billion RMB for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 20.0%, 23.3%, and 19.5% [1] - The projected P/E ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 14X, 11X, and 10X, respectively [1]

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Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the company, with a target price of HKD 48.62, compared to the current price of HKD 34.00 [1]. Core Insights - The company's revenue for the first half of 2024 increased by 25% year-on-year to HKD 7.76 billion, with a gross margin of 43.7%, up by 4.1 percentage points. Adjusted net profit rose by 18% to HKD 1.24 billion, with an adjusted net profit margin of 16.0% [2]. - The company accelerated its store openings, adding 455 new stores globally, bringing the total to 6,868 stores. Domestic stores accounted for 4,115, with 189 new openings, while overseas stores reached 2,753, with 266 new openings [2]. - The company is actively exploring new business models and IPs, such as pop-up stores and 24-hour super stores, which support the recovery of same-store sales [2]. - The gross margin reached a new high of 43.7%, primarily due to improved margins in the overseas direct sales market [2]. - The company plans to distribute dividends amounting to 50% of the adjusted net profit for the first half of 2024 and has approved a share buyback plan of HKD 2 billion, representing 4.8% of the market capitalization [2]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from HKD 11.47 billion in 2023 to HKD 17.28 billion in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of 50.6% [3]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from HKD 1.77 billion in 2023 to HKD 2.81 billion in 2024, with a growth rate of 58.8% [3]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from HKD 1.40 in 2023 to HKD 2.23 in 2024, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 14 [3].

2024 年 09 月 02 日 公司研究 评级：买入(维持) 证券分析师： 马川琪 S0350523050001 macq@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师： 廖小慧 S0350524080002 liaoxh@ghzq.com.cn liuy23@ghzq.com.cn 研究所： 联系人 ： 刘毅 S0350123090035 最近一年走势 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------|-------|-------|-------------| | 相对恒生指数表现 | | | 2024/08/30 | | | | | | | | | | | | 市场数据 | | | 2024/08/30 | | 当前价格（元） | | | 32.90 | | 52 周价格区间（元） | | | 28.20-59.85 | | 总市值（百万） | | | 40,760.65 | | 流通市值（百万） | | | 40,760.65 | | 总股本（万股） | | | 123,892.57 | | 流通股本（万股） | | | 123,892.57 | | 日均成交额 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][5] Core Views - The company demonstrates resilience in domestic store performance, with accelerated overseas expansion expected to release operational leverage [5] - For H1 2024, the company achieved revenue of 7.76 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.0%, and an adjusted net profit of 1.24 billion yuan, up 17.8% [5] - The report anticipates a gradual improvement in profitability due to operational leverage being released as overseas expansion continues [5] Summary by Relevant Sections Domestic Performance - In H1 2024, the company reported revenue of 4.593 billion yuan, a 16% increase, with same-store sales declining by 1.7% due to a 2.5% drop in foot traffic [5] - The company added 189 new stores, bringing the total to 4,115, with a target of 350-450 new stores for 2024 [5] Overseas Expansion - H1 2024 revenue from overseas operations reached 2.73 billion yuan, a 43% increase, with direct sales and agency markets growing by 70% and 19% respectively [5] - The company aims to add 550-650 new stores overseas in 2024, with over 200 stores in the U.S. [5] Profitability Metrics - H1 2024 gross margin was 43.7%, up 4.1 percentage points year-on-year, driven by an increase in high-margin direct sales [5] - The operating profit margin for H1 2024 was 20.3%, with a net profit margin of 16.2% after excluding foreign exchange impacts [5] Financial Projections - The company’s projected net profit for 2024-2026 is 2.73 billion, 3.39 billion, and 4.16 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 2.2, 2.7, and 3.3 yuan [5][6]

证券研究报告·海外公司点评·专业零售(HS) 名创优品（09896.HK） 2024H1 业绩点评：经调整净利润同比+18%， 期待海外直营店旺季表现 2024 年 09 月 02 日 买入（维持） | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------|----------|----------|----------|----------| | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | CY2023A | CY2024E | CY2025E | CY2026E | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 13838 | 16951 | 20540 | 24243 | | 同比 (%) | 39.42 | 22.49 | 21.17 | 18.03 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 2253 | 2539 | 3141 | 3766 | | 同比 (%) | 111.48 | 12.68 | 23.73 | 19.90 | | Non-IFRS 净利润（百万元） | 2,356.73 | 2,808.93 | 3,371.42 | 3,936.4 ...