Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of HKD 58.29, indicating a potential upside of 23.9% from the current share price of HKD 47.05 [2][4]. Core Insights - The company has demonstrated robust global store expansion, achieving a record high gross margin of 44.1% in Q3 2024, up 3.7 percentage points year-on-year [2][4]. - Revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 reached HKD 12.281 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 13.7% [2][4]. - The adjusted net profit margin for Q3 was 15.7%, slightly down from 15.2% in the previous year, indicating a minor decline of 1.3 percentage points [2][4]. - Domestic same-store sales faced pressure, with a decline of approximately 1.7%, particularly in lower-tier cities, while higher-tier cities performed better [2][4]. - The company is expected to benefit from strategic initiatives that enhance average transaction value, with a projected increase in same-store sales driven by IP strategies [2][4]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported revenue of HKD 12.281 billion, a 13.7% increase year-on-year, with Q3 revenue at HKD 4.523 billion, up 6.9% [2][4]. - The adjusted net profit for the first three quarters was HKD 1.768 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 177.2% [2][4]. - The company’s gross margin improved due to a higher contribution from overseas markets, with overseas revenue share rising from 32% to 37% year-on-year [2][4]. - The report forecasts continued revenue growth, with projected revenues of HKD 17.212 billion in 2024, HKD 20.729 billion in 2025, and HKD 24.359 billion in 2026 [6][7]. Store Expansion and Market Strategy - As of Q3 2024, the company had a total of 4,250 stores in China, with a net increase of 135 stores during the quarter [2][4]. - The overseas store count reached 2,936, with a net addition of 183 stores in Q3, indicating strong international expansion [2][4]. - The report highlights the potential for further growth in overseas markets, particularly with the upcoming Harry Potter IP release expected to boost sales [2][4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company achieved revenue of 4.523 billion yuan in Q3 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 19.3%, with adjusted net profit of 686 million yuan, up 6.9% [2] - The report maintains profit forecasts for 2024-2026, expecting net profit attributable to shareholders to be 2.73 billion, 3.39 billion, and 4.16 billion yuan respectively, with current price-to-earnings ratios of 19.1, 15.4, and 12.6 times [2] - The company is focusing on quality retail and interest consumption strategies, with expectations for high-quality growth driven by its store type matrix and O2O strategy in China, accelerated overseas store expansion, and continued profitability from TOP TOY [2] Summary by Sections Domestic Performance - In Q3 2024, MINISO's revenue was 2.44 billion yuan, a 5.7% increase, with offline revenue growing by 3.8% [2] - The company added 324 new stores year-to-date, reaching a total of 4,250 stores, and aims to achieve a net increase of 350-450 stores in 2024 [2] - The report anticipates improved store efficiency driven by differentiated consumer demand and increased O2O touchpoints, with expectations for Q4 performance boosted by IP collaborations [2] Overseas Expansion - In Q3 2024, overseas revenue reached 2.732 billion yuan, a 43% increase, with direct and agency market revenues growing by 45% and 22% respectively [2] - The company added 449 new stores overseas, totaling 2,936 stores, with a target of 650-700 new stores for the year [2] - The report highlights steady same-store growth across various regions, with expectations for continued improvement in store efficiency during the Q4 peak season [2] Profitability - The gross margin for Q3 2024 was 44.9%, an increase of 3.1 percentage points year-on-year, driven by a higher proportion of overseas high-margin direct sales [2] - The operating expense ratio for Q3 2024 was 27.3%, up 5.9 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to increased costs associated with store expansion [2] - The adjusted operating profit margin was 15.2%, reflecting a decrease of 1.8 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to rising expense ratios from rapid store expansion [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [4][14][22]. Core Views - The company achieved a record high gross margin of 44.9% in Q3, driven by an increase in high-margin overseas direct sales and improved product structure [10][12]. - Revenue growth is expected to accelerate in Q4, with an overall year-on-year increase of 25-30%, particularly in overseas markets projected to grow by 45-50% [7][8]. - The company is expanding its store network aggressively, with 135 new stores added in China and 183 new stores overseas in Q3 [8][10]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters, the company reported revenue of 12.28 billion, a year-on-year increase of 22.8%, and adjusted net profit of 1.93 billion, up 13.7% year-on-year [7][8]. - In Q3 alone, revenue was 4.523 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 19.3%, while adjusted net profit was 686 million, up 6.9% year-on-year [7][8]. - The company’s adjusted net profit margin for the first three quarters was 15.7%, slightly down from the previous year [7][8]. Future Projections - The company forecasts net profits of 2.755 billion, 3.330 billion, and 3.958 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 19, 16, and 13 [14][18]. - The revenue projections for the next few years are 17.395 billion in 2024, 21.170 billion in 2025, and 25.235 billion in 2026, indicating a strong growth trajectory [18]. Market Positioning - The company is leveraging its strong channel capabilities and supply chain advantages to optimize its product structure through popular IP collaborations, which is expected to enhance gross margins [12][14]. - The acquisition of Yonghui Supermarket is progressing steadily, aiming to create a unique multi-brand matrix in the retail sector [12][14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for MINISO, indicating a positive outlook for the company's performance in the market [4][13][15]. Core Insights - MINISO reported a revenue of Rmb4.52 billion for Q3 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 19.3%. The gross margin reached a record high of 44.9%, up by 3.1 percentage points year-on-year [4][8]. - The company's domestic revenue from the mainland market was Rmb2.71 billion, growing by 8.7% year-on-year, driven by steady store expansion and improved profitability in its TOP TOY segment [4][9]. - MINISO's overseas expansion is accelerating, with a total of 2,936 overseas stores as of Q3 2024, contributing to a 55.4% year-on-year revenue increase in overseas direct operations [4][10]. - The successful launch of the Harry Potter IP products has significantly boosted sales, indicating the effectiveness of MINISO's global IP strategy [4][12]. - The report projects continued growth in net profit, estimating Rmb28.51 billion, Rmb34.05 billion, and Rmb40.01 billion for the years 2024 to 2026, respectively [4][15]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q3 2024 revenue was Rmb4.52 billion, with adjusted EBITDA of Rmb1.14 billion and adjusted net profit of Rmb686 million, showing respective year-on-year increases of 12.4% and 6.9% [4][8]. - The gross margin improved to 44.9%, attributed to a higher proportion of overseas direct sales and better execution of the IP strategy [4][11]. Domestic Market Insights - The domestic business revenue reached Rmb2.44 billion, growing by 5.7% year-on-year, supported by the expansion of MINISO stores to 4,250 [4][9]. - TOP TOY's revenue surged by 50.4% to Rmb272 million, driven by store expansion and resilient same-store sales [4][9]. Overseas Expansion - MINISO's overseas store count increased by 183 in Q3 2024, with significant contributions from regions such as Latin America and North America [4][10]. - Overseas revenue reached Rmb1.81 billion, marking a 39.8% year-on-year growth, with direct operations accounting for 37% of total overseas revenue [4][10]. Strategic Collaborations - The collaboration with Yonghui is expected to enhance supply chain efficiency and create synergies in private-label development and IP cooperation [4][12].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The report highlights that the company's overseas business continues to grow rapidly, with expectations for strong performance in the fourth quarter due to the overseas consumption peak season [2] - The company's Q3 revenue was 45.2 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 19.3%, which is in line with expectations. Adjusted net profit was 6.9 billion yuan, up 6.9% year-on-year, slightly below Bloomberg consensus [2] - Domestic store openings exceeded expectations, with 135 new Miniso stores opened in Q3, surpassing the Bloomberg consensus of 107 stores. Overseas business revenue in Q3 reached 18.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 40% [2] - The overseas direct sales market maintained high growth, with revenue from the overseas direct sales market increasing by 55.4% year-on-year, while the agency market saw a quarter-on-quarter increase in growth rate [2] - The report suggests that the expansion of overseas direct sales will further enhance the company's overall gross margin, and it is recommended to pay attention to the performance during the overseas consumption peak season in Q4 [2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters, the company's gross margin increased by 3.7 percentage points year-on-year, with the overseas direct sales market contributing positively to the overall gross margin [2] - The overseas revenue for the company was 45.43 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 41%, with direct sales revenue of 24.48 billion yuan (up 64% year-on-year) and agency market revenue of 20.95 billion yuan (up 22% year-on-year) [2] - The report projects the company's revenue for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to be 172 billion yuan, 206 billion yuan, and 232 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 24%, 20%, and 13% [2] Market Dynamics - The report notes that same-store sales in the overseas market maintained strong growth, particularly in Latin America, where growth rates were between 10% and 20% [2] - The net profit margin was constrained by increased upfront costs associated with the rapid pace of new store openings in the direct sales market, suggesting a focus on Q4 performance due to the upcoming peak season and new product launches [2]

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Investment Rating - Maintain OUTPERFORM rating with a target price of USD 25.20 [1] - Current price is USD 20.01 as of November 29, 2024 [1] - Market capitalization stands at USD 6.25 billion [1] Core Views - The company has passed its trough, and the positive guidance reflects management's confidence [1] - Domestic revenue for the Miniso brand grew by 6% YoY, reaching RMB 2.44 billion [1] - Overseas revenue surged by 40% YoY to RMB 1.81 billion, with 183 net new stores added QoQ [1] - The company expects Q4 revenue growth of 25%-30%, driven by strong performance in both domestic and international markets [1] Financial Performance - Q3 revenue reached RMB 4.52 billion, up 19% YoY [1] - Adjusted net profit was RMB 686 million, a 7% YoY increase, with an adjusted net profit margin of 15.2% [1] - Gross profit margin hit a record high of 44.9%, up 3.1 percentage points YoY [1] - Sales and distribution expense ratio increased to 22%, primarily due to higher costs associated with directly operated stores [1] Domestic Operations - Domestic revenue grew by 9% YoY to RMB 2.71 billion [1] - The company added 135 net new stores in Q3, bringing the total to 4,250 stores in China [1] - O2O business grew nearly 80% YoY, contributing 7%-8% of domestic revenue [1] - TOPTOY, the company's sub-brand, achieved a 50% YoY revenue growth and has been profitable for four consecutive quarters [1] International Expansion - Overseas revenue grew by 40% YoY, with 183 net new stores added in Q3 [1] - The company raised its 2024 store opening guidance to 650-700 stores, up from the previous 550-650 [1] - North American operations have stabilized, with cost structure optimization underway [1] - Local sourcing in the US has reached 30%, with further room for improvement [1] Valuation and Forecast - Revenue for 2024-26 is projected to be RMB 17.2/21.6/25.6 billion, with adjusted net profit of RMB 2.80/3.53/4.23 billion [1] - The company is valued at 20x 2024 PE, with a target price of USD 25.2 [1] - Q4 revenue is expected to grow by 29% YoY to RMB 4.94 billion, with adjusted net profit of RMB 880 million [1] Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on O2O, IP-driven products, and precise marketing to boost same-store sales [1] - A new store matrix strategy, including MINISO Land and flagship stores, has been introduced to cater to different customer segments [1] - The acquisition of a 29.4% stake in Yonghui Superstores is progressing as expected, with the deal set to close in Q1 2025 [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (首次覆盖) [2][10] Core Views - The company is experiencing sustained high growth overseas, driven by its IP strategy and "Guzi Economy" which enhances its influence [2] - In Q3 2024, the company achieved revenue of 4.523 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 642 million yuan, up 4.8% year-on-year [2] - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported revenue of 12.281 billion yuan, a 22.8% year-on-year increase, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.812 billion yuan, a 12.0% increase year-on-year [2] Financial Performance - The company has a total market capitalization of approximately 47.98 billion HKD and a closing price of 38.70 HKD as of November 29, 2024 [4] - The company plans to add 900-1100 new stores in 2024, with a total of 7186 stores as of Q3 2024, reflecting a net increase of 1071 stores year-on-year [5] - The overall gross margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 44.1%, an increase of 3.7 percentage points year-on-year [6] Store Expansion and Strategy - The company has expanded its store network significantly, with 4250 stores in mainland China and 2936 stores overseas as of Q3 2024 [5] - The IP strategy has led to collaborations with over 150 IPs globally, enhancing product differentiation and customer engagement [7] - The company announced a cash dividend of 620 million yuan, representing about 50% of its adjusted net profit for H1 2024, along with a share buyback plan of up to 2 billion HKD [7] Earnings Forecast - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 17.18 billion yuan, 20.76 billion yuan, and 23.83 billion yuan respectively, with adjusted net profits of 2.828 billion yuan, 3.531 billion yuan, and 4.220 billion yuan [8]

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Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Miniso (9896.HK) based on its strong performance and positive outlook for Q4 sales [1]. Core Views - Miniso's revenue for Q3 2024 reached 4.523 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year increase of 19.3%, with adjusted net profit of 686 million RMB, up 6.9% [1]. - The company is expected to benefit from robust sales performance in both domestic and overseas markets during the peak season in Q4 2024 [1]. - The report highlights the steady growth in the Chinese mainland market and the rapid expansion in overseas markets, with a significant increase in revenue from international operations [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q1-Q3 2024, Miniso achieved total revenue of 12.281 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 22.8%, with adjusted net profit of 1.928 billion RMB, up 13.7% [1]. - Revenue breakdown shows that the Chinese mainland and overseas markets generated 7.738 billion RMB and 4.543 billion RMB, respectively, with growth rates of 14% and 41% [1]. Market Expansion - As of September 30, 2024, Miniso had a total of 4,250 stores in the Chinese mainland, with a net increase of 324 stores in Q1-Q3 2024 [1]. - The overseas market saw a revenue increase of 41.5%, with a total of 2,936 stores, reflecting a net increase of 449 stores [1]. Product and Brand Development - The company is deepening collaborations with top global IPs such as Disney and Warner Bros, launching a range of co-branded products, including those featuring the Harry Potter franchise [1]. - Top Toy brand also showed strong growth, with a revenue increase of 42.5% in Q1-Q3 2024, and the first overseas store opened in Bangkok, Thailand [1]. Profitability and Cost Management - The gross margin improved to 44.1%, up 3.7 percentage points year-on-year, driven by an increase in high-margin product sales and the contribution from Top Toy [1]. - Selling and administrative expenses as a percentage of revenue increased to 20.51% and 5.33%, respectively, reflecting the costs associated with store expansion [1].