Core Viewpoint - MINISO Group Holding Limited plans to release its financial results for the September quarter of 2024 on November 29, 2024, before the U.S. market opens [1]. Financial Results Announcement - The earnings conference call will take place at 4:00 A.M. Eastern Time on November 29, 2024, with simultaneous interpretation in English [2]. - Access to the conference call will be available via a Zoom link and through various international dialing numbers [3]. Company Overview - MINISO Group is a global value retailer known for offering trendy lifestyle products with IP design, aiming to provide a delightful shopping experience [5]. - The company has established a significant store network worldwide since its first store opening in China in 2013, building the MINISO brand as a globally recognized retail name [5].

The latest trading session saw MINISO Group Holding Limited Unsponsored ADR (MNSO) ending at $19.05, denoting a -1.45% adjustment from its last day's close. The stock fell short of the S&P 500, which registered a gain of 0.1% for the day. Meanwhile, the Dow gained 0.69%, and the Nasdaq, a tech-heavy index, added 0.06%.Heading into today, shares of the company had gained 6.91% over the past month, outpacing the Retail-Wholesale sector's gain of 5.33% and the S&P 500's gain of 4.37% in that time.The investmen ...

Core Insights - MINISO's founder, Mr. Jack Ye, believes that changes in the global retail industry present significant opportunities for MINISO to enhance its global competitiveness and influence [1] - The brand has successfully pioneered the 'Global IP Collection Store' model, focusing on emotional consumer needs and self-expression, which are driving future consumption trends [2][3] - MINISO has partnered with over 150 renowned IPs, achieving global IP product sales exceeding 10 billion RMB and launching over 10,000 new IP products annually [3] Strategic Initiatives - MINISO aims to support 100 Chinese IPs in going global, leveraging design centers in multiple countries to innovate and expand its product offerings [4] - The brand is diversifying its product categories, investing in R&D, and enhancing its global supply chain to quickly bring innovative designs to market [5] - MINISO has expanded its store formats, including the introduction of MINISO IP LAND and MINISO FRIENDS, to cater to diverse customer needs and engage younger audiences [6][7] User Engagement and Brand Value - MINISO has built a strong emotional connection with over a billion users globally, resulting in increased brand value and customer spending [8] - The brand has over 100 million registered members worldwide, with a 63% increase in overseas members since 2024 [8] Social Responsibility - MINISO has invested in social initiatives, including a 10 million RMB fund to support women and promote animal welfare through its Pet Protection Foundation [9] Future Outlook - The company plans to deepen its overseas expansion and create innovative store experiences to attract younger customers, while promoting its "Joy Philosophy" globally [10] Company Overview - MINISO Group is a global value retailer known for its trendy lifestyle products featuring IP design, with a focus on quality, affordability, and an engaging shopping experience [11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for MINISO (09896.HK) [1] Core Views - MINISO held a global brand strategy upgrade conference on October 30, emphasizing "quality without price competition" and positioning itself as a "global IP co-branding collection store" [2] - The company anticipates a transformation in offline consumption, focusing on experiential consumption and emotional value for consumers, aiming to become the world's leading IP design retail group [2] - MINISO has collaborated with over 150 global IPs, achieving cumulative sales of over 800 million items, with plans to launch over 10,000 new IP products annually, targeting 50% of sales from IP products by 2028 [2] Financial Forecasts and Valuation - The total revenue forecast for MINISO is projected to grow from 13,838 million RMB in 2023 to 24,311 million RMB by 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 39.42%, 22.90%, 21.13%, and 18.00% respectively [1][4] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 2,253 million RMB in 2023 to 3,730 million RMB in 2026, with growth rates of 111.48%, 12.28%, 24.12%, and 18.77% respectively [1][4] - The report forecasts a diluted EPS of 1.79 RMB in 2023, increasing to 2.96 RMB by 2026, with corresponding P/E ratios decreasing from 19.96 to 12.06 [1][4] Store Expansion Strategy - MINISO's global flagship store strategy has effectively enhanced brand awareness, with potential for 40,000 stores worldwide based on demographic calculations [3] - The company is restructuring its domestic store product lines and franchise system to optimize store expansion, including seven defined store formats and a shift from store authorization to a commercial system authorization [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a **Buy** rating for Miniso (MNSO) with a 12-month price target of **US$26.4/HK$52** per ADR/H-share, based on **18x CY2025E P/E** [1][8] Core Views - Miniso is expected to report **21% YoY growth in Group sales** to **RMB4.58bn** in 3Q24, driven by strong overseas performance, particularly in distributor markets [1][3] - **China sales** are expected to grow by **8% YoY**, slightly below management's earlier target, due to a weak consumption backdrop [1] - **Overseas sales** are projected to grow by **40% YoY**, with **DTC markets** up **55% YoY** and **distributor markets** accelerating to **28% YoY growth** [1][4] - **Top Toy brand** is expected to grow by **51% YoY**, driven by store expansion and favorable product mix [1][5] Sales Breakdown - **Mainland China sales** are forecasted at **RMB2.49bn**, growing **8% YoY**, decelerating from **18% YoY** in 2Q24 [4] - **Overseas sales** are expected to reach **RMB1.8bn**, with **DTC markets** contributing **55% YoY growth** and **distributor markets** growing **28% YoY** [4] - **Top Toy brand** sales are projected to reach **RMB272mn**, with a **33% GPM**, reflecting a **4pp QoQ expansion** due to a favorable product mix [5] Margins and Profitability - **Group GPM** is expected to expand by **4pp YoY**, driven by a higher mix of **overseas DTC** and **Top Toy margin improvement** [1] - **Adjusted OPM** is forecasted to decline by **2pp YoY** to **19%**, due to near-term investments in **US store expansion** and **24H Super stores** [1] - **Adjusted net income** is expected to grow by **9% YoY** to **RMB696mn**, with a **15.2% adjusted NPM** [5] Store Expansion - **Miniso brand** is expected to add **105 net stores** in Mainland China in 3Q24, reaching **4,220 stores** by the end of the quarter [3] - **Overseas store openings** are projected at **180 net stores** in 3Q24, with a full-year target of **550-650 stores** [3] - **Top Toy brand** is expected to reach **235 stores** by 3Q24, with **40 net openings** in the quarter and a full-year target of **112 stores** [5] Catalysts and Outlook - Key catalysts for 4Q24 include the **launch of Harry Potter IP** and the **upcoming holiday season**, particularly in the US where store expansion is accelerating [1] - The report highlights potential **tax credits** for the US business in 2H24, given the turnaround from the previous year [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Miniso [2] Core Views - The report anticipates that overseas agency growth will exceed expectations in Q3 2024, while domestic performance may be slightly weaker than expected. The continued expansion of overseas stores is expected to contribute positively in Q4 [2] - Adjusted net profit estimates for the company for 2024-2026 have been lowered to 2.751 billion, 3.342 billion, and 4.023 billion HKD respectively, down from previous estimates of 2.869 billion, 3.448 billion, and 4.132 billion HKD [2] - The target price has been adjusted to 47.40 HKD from 49.60 HKD, based on a 20x PE for 2024 [2] Summary by Sections Revenue Growth - The report estimates an overall revenue growth of approximately 18.3% for Q3 2024, translating to an expected revenue of about 4.484 billion HKD. Domestic revenue growth is projected at around 7.0%, while overseas direct and agency market growth rates are expected to be 55% and 28% respectively [2] - The contribution of high-margin overseas direct business is expected to increase, leading to improvements in gross margin both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter [2] Store Expansion - The company is expected to add over 100 new stores domestically and 150-200 stores overseas in Q3 2024, aligning with the annual store opening plan of 350-450 domestic stores and 550-650 overseas stores [2] - The launch of Harry Potter IP co-branded products is anticipated to drive sales in both domestic and overseas markets, enhancing the willingness of franchisees to open stores and agents to purchase products [2] Profitability Outlook - The report suggests that the overall gross margin is likely to improve due to the increasing proportion of high-margin products and the release of operational leverage as overseas direct business performance improves [2] - The expected sales and management expense ratio for Q3 2024 is projected at 26.10%, with an adjusted net profit margin of approximately 15.5%, leading to an adjusted net profit of about 694 million HKD [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "OUTPERFORM" rating for Miniso Group (MNSO US) with a target price of USD 25.30, reflecting a potential upside from the current price of USD 17.59 [1][2]. Core Insights - Miniso is expected to announce its 3Q24 financial results in mid-November, with projected revenue of RMB 4.57 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 20%. The adjusted net profit is anticipated to be RMB 708 million, with an adjusted net profit margin of 15.5% [5][1]. - The report highlights that domestic revenue is projected to be RMB 2.75 billion, while overseas revenue is expected to reach RMB 1.81 billion, indicating strong growth in international markets [5][1]. - For FY24-26, the revenue estimates are RMB 17.3 billion, RMB 21.3 billion, and RMB 25.4 billion, respectively, with adjusted net profits of RMB 2.81 billion, RMB 3.48 billion, and RMB 4.16 billion [5][2]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 3Q24 is expected to be RMB 4.57 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 20%. The adjusted net profit is projected at RMB 708 million, with a net profit margin of 15.5% [1][5]. - The report forecasts revenue growth rates of 25%, 23%, and 19% for FY24, FY25, and FY26, respectively, with adjusted net profit growth rates of 19%, 24%, and 19% [2][4]. - The gross profit margin is expected to improve to 44.0% in 3Q24, up 2.3 percentage points year-on-year, driven by increased contributions from overseas direct sales [1][2]. Valuation - The company is valued at a 20x PE for FY24, leading to a target market capitalization of USD 7.9 billion and a target price of USD 25.3 [2][5]. - The report indicates a projected diluted EPS of RMB 8.97 for FY24, increasing to RMB 11.14 in FY25 and RMB 13.30 in FY26 [2][4].

In the latest trading session, MINISO Group Holding Limited Unsponsored ADR (MNSO) closed at $16.75, marking a +1.76% move from the previous day. The stock's performance was ahead of the S&P 500's daily loss of 0.18%. Elsewhere, the Dow saw a downswing of 0.8%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq appreciated by 0.27%. Shares of the company have by 0% over the course of the past month, underperforming the Retail-Wholesale sector's gain of 3.95% and the S&P 500's gain of 4.46%. Analysts and investors alike will be ke ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, Miniso Group [5] Core Views - Miniso is the largest private label lifestyle retailer globally, with a rapid expansion of stores both domestically and internationally. The company aims to increase its store count by 900-1100 annually from 2024 to 2028, potentially doubling its total stores by 2028 [4][13] - The company is focusing on increasing the revenue share from IP products, which are expected to enhance overall profitability. The average annual revenue growth rate is projected to be no less than 20% from 2024 to 2028 [4][5] - The efficient supply chain system supports high cost-performance products and enables global expansion. The company has a low inventory turnover period of 68 days, which is better than its main competitors [4][39] Summary by Sections 1. Rapid Growth of Global Private Label Retailer - Miniso has opened 6,630 stores globally as of March 31, 2024, with 4,034 in China and 2,596 overseas, showing significant year-on-year growth [4][13] - The company achieved revenues of 138.4 billion CNY in 2023, with a year-on-year growth of 39%, and a net profit of 22.5 billion CNY, growing 112% year-on-year [4][15] 2. Vision to Become the Leading IP Design Retail Group - The company aims to increase the share of IP products in its revenue from 26% in 2023 to 50% by 2028, capitalizing on the growing consumer interest in IP products [4][35] - The average annual per capita consumption of IP products in China is significantly lower than the global average, indicating substantial growth potential [29] 3. Super Supply Chain and Unique Business Model - Miniso employs a highly efficient supply chain that allows for rapid product launches and minimizes inventory risks, with an average of 930 new SKUs introduced monthly [37][38] - The company utilizes three business models (partner, agent, and direct) to expand its store network, adapting to local market conditions [42][43] 4. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The projected net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 28.1 billion CNY, 35.2 billion CNY, and 39.6 billion CNY respectively, with corresponding EPS of 2.23 CNY, 2.80 CNY, and 3.14 CNY [5][7]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for Miniso [5]. Core Insights - Miniso is positioned as a leading IP-driven retail brand, focusing on global expansion and innovative product offerings, with a significant market share in both domestic and international markets [2][3]. - The company has established a strong presence with over 7,063 stores globally by mid-2024, leveraging its dual-brand strategy with Miniso and TOP TOY [2][11]. - Financial projections indicate robust revenue growth, with expected revenues of RMB 165.72 billion, RMB 190.31 billion, and RMB 211.61 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, reflecting growth rates of 20%, 15%, and 11% [3][4]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - Miniso has achieved a global market share of 6.7% and 11.4% in the self-owned brand retail market, leading the industry [2][11]. - The company operates two main brands: Miniso, which offers a wide range of household products, and TOP TOY, focusing on trendy toys [12][31]. 2. Market Dynamics - The global self-owned brand retail market is projected to grow significantly, with Miniso capitalizing on this trend through its innovative product offerings and competitive pricing [25][28]. - The trend towards personalized and high-quality products is driving the growth of the household goods market, which is expected to reach RMB 5.1 trillion in 2023 [25][28]. 3. Financial Performance - Miniso's revenue for FY2024 is projected to increase by 34% to RMB 153.91 billion, with overseas revenue expected to grow by 44.45% to RMB 55.21 billion [20][22]. - The company has seen a consistent improvement in gross margins, with an overall gross margin of 43.1% anticipated for FY2024 [20][22]. 4. Competitive Landscape - The competitive landscape in the self-owned brand retail market is fragmented, with Miniso leading with a market share of 11.4% in China [36]. - In the trendy toy market, TOP TOY has quickly captured a 1.1% market share, ranking seventh in the industry [31][36].