赤子城科技 20250324 摘要 Q&A 赤子城科技的业务结构是怎样的？ 赤子城科技成立于 2009 年，自 2013 年开始专注于数字出海社交业务，定位为 全球最大的泛娱乐社交平台公司。截止 2024 年底，公司最大的业务是社交业务， 占比 91%。在社交业务下，有两大主要板块：泛娱乐社交平台和多元人群社交。 • 赤子城科技 2024 年营销收入同比增长 54%，社交业务驱动增长达 58%，Top Top 和 Soul 表现突出，分别实现翻倍和超过 200%的增长。营业利润同比增 长 32%，经调整后利润增长 43%，净利润因一次性因素略有下滑，但剔除后 经营性归母净利润增长接近 45%-50%。 • 创新业务中，休闲手游表现亮眼，首款自研合成手游月流水在 2024 年 5 月 接近千万美元，跻身合成手游前十，并在下半年迅速实现扭亏为盈。社交 电商业务转型覆盖全渠道，并扩展至职场男女等泛人群，收入同比增长超 过 30%，利润增长达三位数。 • 公司战略重点是巩固泛娱乐及多元人群领域的领导地位，加大创新投入， 优化产品矩阵，加强技术研发和市场推广，并通过并购整合拓展市场机会。 财务管理上，严格控制成本，提高 ...

证券研究报告 赤子城科技 (9911 HK) 社交业务持续高增，AI 赋能全线提效 | 华泰研究 | | | 年报点评 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 3 月 | 21 日│中国香港 | 互联网媒体 | 公司 24 年营收 50.9 亿元，同增 53.9%；归母净利 4.8 亿元，同减 6.3%， 业绩位于预告中间区间（4.6-5 亿元）。剔除 23Q3 收购子公司的 1.6 亿元投 资收益影响后，归母净利同增 36%。公司拟未来 2 年以不超过 2 亿港币的 资金进行回购。增长主要来自 AI 技术推动多样化社交产品持续快速增长， 以及蓝城兄弟及 Land of Glory Ltd.于 23Q3 开始并表。维持"买入"评级。 盈利预测和估值 考虑 TopTop、SUGO 营收高增，及年报中毛利率及各项费用率提效超出我 们之前预计，我们调整 25-27年归母净利预测至 8.84/10.2/11.89亿元（25-26 年上调幅度 13.9%/12.1%），可比公司彭博一致预期 25 年 PE 均值 14X， 考虑腾讯作为龙头有估值溢价，以及公司降本增效显著，给予 25 ...

香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告的內容概不負責，對其準確性 或完整性亦不發表任何聲明，亦明確表示，概不對因本公告全部或任何部分內容而產生或因依 賴該等內容而引致的任何損失承擔任何責任。 NEWBORN TOWN INC. 赤子城科技有限公司 （於開曼群島註冊成立的有限公司） （股份代號：9911） 截至2024年12月31日止年度之年度業績公告 赤子城科技有限公司（「本公司」）董事會（「董事會」）欣然公佈本公司及其附屬 公司（「本集團」）截至2024年12月31日止年度之經審核綜合年度業績（「年度業 績」）。年度業績已由本公司審核委員會審閱。 在本公告中，「我們」及「我們的」指本公司及本集團（視乎文義所指）。 財務摘要 1 • 截至2024年12月31日止年度的客戶合約收入為人民幣5,091.5百萬元，較截 至2023年12月31日止年度錄得的人民幣3,307.8百萬元增加53.9%。 • 截至2024年12月31日止年度的毛利為人民幣2,607.7百萬元，較截至2023年 12月31日止年度錄得的人民幣1,722.1百萬元增加51.4%。 • 截至2024年12月31日止年度的年內利 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [8] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve total revenue of approximately 5.0 to 5.2 billion RMB in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 51.1% to 57.2%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be between 460 to 500 million RMB, showing a decline of 10.3% to 2.5%. However, excluding the impact of a 160 million RMB investment income from the acquisition of a subsidiary in Q3 2023, the net profit is expected to grow by 29.9% to 41.2% [1] - The growth is primarily driven by AI technology, which is enhancing the rapid growth of diversified social products, alongside the consolidation of Blue City Brothers and Land of Glory Ltd. starting from Q3 2023 [1] Summary by Sections Social Business - The social business, including diverse social services, is expected to generate revenue of 4.52 to 4.72 billion RMB in 2024, reflecting a growth of approximately 54.3% to 61.1%. The cumulative download volume is projected to reach 780 million [2] - The growth is attributed to AI-driven diversified social products and the consolidation of Blue City Brothers and Land of Glory Ltd. The company focuses on broad audience social services, creating a product matrix represented by MICO, YoHo, TopTop, and SUGO. SUGO's revenue is expected to grow over 200% in 2024, becoming the highest-grossing social product in a single month [2] Innovative Business - The innovative business segment is projected to achieve revenue of 440 to 480 million RMB in 2024, with a growth rate of 16.1% to 26.6%. The "second growth curve" led by premium games and social e-commerce is becoming clearer [3] - The flagship game "Alice's Dream: Merge Games" continues to perform well, achieving approximately 705 million RMB in revenue, an increase of about 80.4% compared to 2023, marking the entry into profitability for this segment [3] AI Applications - AI technology is increasingly applied across business operations, enhancing efficiency from research and development to marketing. The self-developed multi-modal algorithm model Boomiix has been upgraded, significantly improving social efficiency and user willingness to pay. The ARPU value for SUGO at the end of 2024 is expected to increase by over 20% compared to the beginning of the year [4] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecast for the net profit attributable to the parent company has been adjusted to 483 million RMB for 2024, 776 million RMB for 2025, and 910 million RMB for 2026, reflecting adjustments of 7.13%, 40.91%, and 41.06% respectively. The target price is set at 8.35 HKD, based on a 12X PE for 2025, considering Tencent's valuation premium as an industry leader [5]

证券研究报告 | 公司动态点评 2025 年 03 月 05 日 赤子城科技（09911.HK） 归母净利润超预期，自研多模态 AI 算法模型推动商业化效率提升 资料来源：公司财报，长城证券产业金融研究院 事件：赤子城科技发布 2024 年度业绩预告，公司预计实现收入 50-52 亿元， 同比增长约 51.1%-57.2%；经调整 EBITDA 预计约为 9.5-9.9 亿元，同比增 长约 40.7%-46.7%；预计实现归母净利润 4.6-5.0 亿元，剔除 2023 年收购 蓝城 兄弟产生的约 1.6 亿元的一次 性投资收 益影响后， 同比增长约 29.9%-41.2%。 社交业务后发产品维持高速增长，自研多模态 AI 算法模型有效提升公司商 业化效率。公司社交业务维持高质量发展，公司通过深入扎根本地和垂类产 品创新，形成以 MICO、YoHo、TopTop 和 SUGO 为代表的社交产品"灌木丛"， 其中 MICO、YoHo 稳定贡献收入及利润，后发产品 SUGO 2024 年收入同比 增长超 200%，成为公司单月流水规模最高的社交产品；TopTop 2024 年收 入增长超 100%。根据 data ...

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating to "Buy" with a target price of HKD 7.05, reflecting a 12x PE for 2025 [4][3]. Core Insights - The company has shown significant growth in its social business, with cumulative downloads reaching approximately 780 million, a 5.7% increase from the previous quarter. Monthly active users reached about 31.74 million, a 9.5% quarter-on-quarter growth. Total revenue from the social business is expected to be between RMB 4.52 billion and RMB 4.72 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 54.3% to 61.1% [1]. - The innovative business segment, including e-commerce and premium games, is projected to generate revenue between RMB 440 million and RMB 480 million, with a year-on-year growth of 16.1% to 26.6%. The premium game "Alice's Dream" has contributed significantly, achieving a revenue of approximately RMB 705 million, a growth of 80.4% [2]. - The company is focusing on emerging markets, particularly in the Middle East and North Africa, where it has established a strong presence in the app rankings. The application of AI technology is expected to further enhance growth and market share [1]. Summary by Sections Social Business Performance - Cumulative downloads reached approximately 780 million, a 5.7% increase from the previous quarter [1]. - Monthly active users reached about 31.74 million, a 9.5% quarter-on-quarter growth [1]. - Total revenue from social business expected to be between RMB 4.52 billion and RMB 4.72 billion, a year-on-year growth of 54.3% to 61.1% [1]. Innovative Business Growth - Total revenue from innovative business projected to be between RMB 440 million and RMB 480 million, with a year-on-year growth of 16.1% to 26.6% [2]. - Premium game "Alice's Dream" achieved revenue of approximately RMB 705 million, an 80.4% year-on-year growth [2]. Market Expansion Strategy - The company is targeting emerging markets with significant growth potential, particularly in the Middle East and North Africa [1]. - The application of AI technology is expected to drive further growth and enhance market presence [1].

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating to "Buy" with a target price of HKD 7.05, reflecting an expected relative return of over 20% within the next six months [3][4]. Core Insights - The company has shown impressive growth in its social business, with cumulative downloads reaching approximately 780 million, a 5.7% increase from the previous quarter. Monthly active users reached about 31.74 million, a 9.5% quarter-on-quarter growth. Total revenue from the social business is expected to be between RMB 4.52 billion and RMB 4.72 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of approximately 54.3% to 61.1% [1]. - The company's innovative business segment, which includes e-commerce and premium games, is projected to generate total revenue of RMB 440 million to RMB 480 million, reflecting a year-on-year growth of about 16.1% to 26.6%. The premium game "Alice's Dream" has significantly contributed to this growth, achieving a revenue of approximately RMB 705 million, a year-on-year increase of about 80.4% [2]. Summary by Sections Social Business Performance - The social business has achieved substantial growth, driven by AI technology and strategic acquisitions. The revenue growth trajectory indicates a successful implementation of the company's strategies, with projections showing a significant increase from previous years [1]. Innovative Business Development - The innovative business segment is expanding, with e-commerce and premium games contributing to revenue growth. The focus on emerging markets allows the company to avoid intense competition in mainstream markets while leveraging successful strategies from established players [2]. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for FY2024 to FY2026 have been adjusted, with total revenue expected to be RMB 5.08 billion, RMB 5.86 billion, and RMB 6.76 billion respectively. Net profit estimates have also been revised, indicating a strong financial outlook for the company [3].

Key Points Industry or Company Involved - **Company**: The company discussed in the call is engaged in the gaming and social entertainment industry, specifically focusing on mobile gaming and social networking platforms. Core Points and Arguments - **Profitability**: The company has achieved profitability with its first game, and plans to expand its mobile gaming portfolio with one to two new games next year. - **Acquisition**: The company has completed a significant acquisition of a minority stake in a key asset, which will enhance its EPS and long-term binding of core assets and teams. - **Product Performance**: The company's flagship products, Miko, Yoho, Talk Top, and Sugo, have shown strong growth, with TopTop and Sugo experiencing explosive growth in the second half of the year. - **Market Expansion**: The company is expanding into new markets, including Southeast Asia, Japan, Korea, and Europe, following a successful model in the Middle East and North Africa. - **Competitive Landscape**: The company has a competitive advantage in local operations and market understanding, particularly in the Middle East and North Africa, where it has been operating for over eight years. - **Regulatory Changes**: There have been recent regulatory changes affecting the live social entertainment industry, which the company is actively addressing. Other Important Points - **Revenue and Profit Contribution**: Miko has historically contributed over 80% of the company's revenue and over 90% of its profit. - **Product Lifecycle**: The company's products are at different stages of their lifecycle, with Miko and Yoho being mature products and TopTop and Sugo experiencing explosive growth. - **Local Operations**: The company has established strong local teams in various regions, which have contributed to its success in those markets. - **Regulatory Compliance**: The company is proactive in addressing regulatory changes and ensuring compliance with local regulations. - **Future Outlook**: The company expects strong growth in the Middle East and North Africa and Southeast Asia, driven by young populations and secularization trends. References - [1] - [2] - [3] - [4] - [5] - [6] - [7] - [8] - [9] - [10] - [11] - [12] - [13] - [14] - [15] - [16] - [17]

Key Points Industry and Company 1. **Company Overview**: The company has been in the social entertainment industry for over a decade, focusing on the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. [doc id='1'] 2. **Business Segments**: The company operates in two main segments: general population social networking and diverse population social networking. [doc id='2'] 3. **Product Portfolio**: The company has a diverse product portfolio, including TopTop, Sugo, and PC. [doc id='2'] 4. **Market Presence**: The company's products are available in over 70 countries globally. [doc id='2'] 5. **Revenue Growth**: The company's general population social networking segment achieved a revenue growth of over 35% in the first half of the year. [doc id='3'] 6. **Game Business**: The company has a growing game business with products like Xtreme and Telesequence. [doc id='9'] 7. **Shareholder Repurchase**: The company has repurchased over 90 million shares, totaling over 200 million USD. [doc id='9'] 8. **Acquisition Strategy**: The company is actively looking for acquisition opportunities in the social networking domain to expand its product portfolio. [doc id='10'] 9. **Market Outlook**: The company believes the social entertainment market in the MENA region has significant potential with a projected growth rate of over 20% in the next five years. [doc id='12] Core Views and Arguments 1. **Strong Growth in Key Products**: The company's TopTop and Sugo products have experienced explosive growth, with Sugo's user growth doubling in the first half of the year. [doc id='6'] 2. **Product Differentiation**: TopTop and Sugo differ from Yara Ludo in their focus on social networking as a core element, with a global product strategy. [doc id='7'] 3. **Game Business Profitability**: The company's game business, particularly Xtreme, is expected to achieve profitability in the fourth quarter of the year. [doc id='8'] 4. **Acquisition Strategy**: The company aims to acquire social networking companies with synergistic value to expand its product portfolio. [doc id='10'] 5. **Market Leadership**: The company aims to become a leader in each vertical market it operates in, with Sugo being a global leader in its category. [doc id='12] Other Important Content 1. **Product Pipeline**: The company plans to launch a new synthetic game next year to enrich its product portfolio. [doc id='9'] 2. **Blue City Brothers**: The company holds approximately 78% of Blue City Brothers, with the remaining shares held by founders and original PE investors. [doc id='10'] 3. **Market Share and Penetration**: The company aims to increase its market share in the MENA region, targeting a 20% growth rate in the overseas market for Blue City Brothers. [doc id='12]

Key Points Company Overview - **Industry**: Entertainment and social media - **Company**: Zhisheng Technology - **Leaders**: Gloria and Naomi - **Market**: Global, with a strong presence in Middle East and Southeast Asia Financial Highlights - **Revenue Guidance**: Approximately 4.5 billion RMB for the year - **Q3 Revenue Growth**: Strong growth, driven by social media business and gaming revenue - **Social Media Business**: TopTop and Sugo products experiencing rapid growth, contributing significantly to revenue - **Gaming Business**: iLive Stream achieving near one million USD in monthly revenue, expected to turn profitable in Q4 Social Media Business - **Revenue Contribution**: Approximately 90% of total revenue - **Growth Rate**: 35% year-on-year growth - **TopTop and Sugo**: Continued strong growth, with a significant impact on overall revenue - **PC Team**: Ongoing integration and brand building efforts in overseas markets, aiming for a healthy growth rate of around 20% Gaming Business - **iLive Stream**: Achieved near one million USD in monthly revenue in May, expected to turn profitable in Q4 - **Product Lifecycle**: Aim to maintain a long lifecycle of at least three to five years, with potential for even longer - **New Games**: Plans to develop more products in the same genre to strengthen the market position Marketing and Acquisition - **Buy-Volume Costs**: Increasing costs, but internal strategies to control costs and optimize ROI - **Buy-Volume Platforms**: Utilizing multiple platforms, including Apple, Facebook, and Google, with varying ROI and efficiency - **Acquisition Plans**: Actively seeking external growth opportunities, with several potential deals in discussion Shareholder Returns - **Share Repurchase**: Completed nearly 180 million HKD in share repurchases, demonstrating confidence in the company's fundamentals - **Dividend Policy**: Discussing a formal dividend policy, but no specific timeline provided Market Outlook - **Q4 and 2025**: TopTop and Sugo expected to maintain strong growth, with a focus on overseas market expansion - **Innovation Business**: Aim to achieve break-even or slight profitability in 2025 Other Key Points - **Employee Count**: Approximately 1,200 employees, with a significant presence in Egypt and other Middle Eastern and Southeast Asian countries - **Market Expansion**: Plans to expand into new markets, including Japan, South Korea, Europe, and other regions - **Policy Risks**: Monitoring regulatory changes and potential policy risks in different countries - **New Industry Expansion**: Focused on entertainment and social media, with plans to continue expanding within these areas