Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent stock price fluctuations of Pop Mart, highlighting its resilience and growth potential despite a temporary pullback, and emphasizes the importance of understanding its underlying business model to unlock value creation in the new consumption era [1]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Pop Mart's market capitalization has increased from over 300 billion to over 400 billion, illustrating significant market interest and volatility [1]. - The founder, Wang Ning, notes that a daily fluctuation of two percentage points can lead to a change of 100 billion in market value, reflecting the dramatic nature of stock price movements [1]. Group 2: Business Model Insights - The article emphasizes the need for companies to address challenges related to overcapacity and consumer repurchase behavior in a market characterized by excess supply [1]. - Zhang Le, a key figure in the article, suggests that understanding consumer behavior and creating a sustainable business model is crucial for overcoming price competition [1]. Group 3: Course Content Overview - The course aims to dissect core issues in the consumption era, including strategies for companies to navigate from scarcity to overcapacity and the essence of generational consumption differences [6]. - It will explore the steps for "small but beautiful" brands to seize opportunities in the current market landscape [6]. Group 4: Learning Outcomes - Participants will learn how to quantify "emotional value" and apply it to product development [10]. - The course will provide tools to understand the emotional purchasing motivations of younger generations [8]. - Insights will be shared on the premium logic of "useless items" and how to drive repeat purchases [9].

Core Insights - The resale prices of the mini version of Labubu have started to decline just one week after its release, with some resellers indicating that the price momentum is weaker compared to the third generation of Labubu [2][4] - The transaction volume for the mini version of Labubu has exceeded 56,000 units within a week, with an average transaction price of 138 yuan, representing a 75% premium over the original price of 79 yuan, although this is a decrease of 10%-60% from the initial resale prices [2][4] - The average transaction price for the hidden version of Labubu has also dropped significantly, from 991 yuan at launch to 679 yuan currently, indicating a reduction in speculative pricing [4][5] Market Dynamics - The rapid price decline of the mini version of Labubu is attributed to a higher supply volume and the presence of 30 different product variants, which has reduced the liquidity in the secondary market [5] - The mini version of Labubu is sold exclusively online, limiting the ability of physical resellers to hoard inventory, which has further contributed to the price drop [5] - The company is expected to launch a second round of mini version Labubu products in October, which may lead to further price fluctuations [5] Competitive Analysis - Compared to the third generation of Labubu, the mini version has seen a significant reduction in premium pricing, with the hidden version of the third generation still commanding an average price of 939 yuan, which is 9.5 times its original price, compared to the mini version's 8.6 times premium [4][5] - The stock price of the company, Pop Mart (09992.HK), has decreased by 5.61% in the five days following the release of the mini version Labubu [5]

Core Viewpoint - The resale prices of the mini version of Labubu have started to decline significantly within a week of its release, indicating a potential oversupply and reduced demand in the secondary market [2][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - The mini version of Labubu has seen over 56,000 transactions on the Dewu app within a week, with an average transaction price of 138 yuan, representing a 75% premium over the original price of 79 yuan [2]. - However, the resale prices have decreased by 10%-60% compared to the initial release period, with specific examples showing a drop from 1930 yuan to 1541 yuan, a 20% decline [2][4]. - The average transaction price for the Labubu 4.0 has fallen from 143 yuan on August 27 to 106 yuan [2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The price of the mini version Labubu has decreased from 2399 yuan before release to 1850 yuan for the (A~M) version and 1800 yuan for the (N~Z) version [4]. - The mini version Labubu has a lower premium compared to the third generation Labubu, with the hidden version of the third generation still commanding an average price of 939 yuan, a 9.5 times premium, compared to the mini version's 8.6 times premium [4]. - The rapid price decline is attributed to a larger supply, with 30 product variations and all sales conducted online, reducing the influence of scalpers [4]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the mini version of Labubu may not generate significant buzz on social media, leading to a short-lived popularity and not a sustainable sales phenomenon [5]. - Following the release of the mini version, the stock price of Pop Mart (09992.HK) has dropped by 5.61% over the past five days [6].

Group 1: Market Growth and Trends - The "Guzi economy" market size in China is projected to grow from 58 billion yuan in 2020 to 168.9 billion yuan by 2024, nearly tripling in size[9] - By 2029, the overall market size is expected to reach 308.9 billion yuan[9] - The number of related enterprises in the Guzi economy has increased from 78,900 in 2015 to nearly 7 million by mid-2025, an increase of 87 times[9] Group 2: Consumer Demographics - Consumers aged 18 to 40 account for over 78% of Guzi product purchases, with the Gen Z demographic contributing more than 50%[13] - Female consumers' share in the Guzi economy is projected to rise from 67% in 2023 to 78% by 2025[13] - High-tier cities account for over 80% of Guzi consumption, indicating potential growth in lower-tier markets[13] Group 3: Challenges and Recommendations - Insufficient copyright protection is harming the interests of original creators and consumers, necessitating stronger IP protection measures[34] - Market disorder due to irrational speculation is disrupting the Guzi economy, highlighting the need for regulatory oversight[34] - The industry faces challenges from homogenized competition, which limits growth potential, suggesting a need for innovation in IP development and product differentiation[36]

Core Insights - The resale prices of the mini Labubu toys have significantly decreased within a week of their release, with some styles dropping nearly 60% [1][8] - The average transaction price for the mini Labubu has fallen by 10%-60% compared to the initial sales period, indicating a decline in demand [1][9] - The stock price of Pop Mart (09992.HK) has dropped by 5.61% in the five days following the release of the mini Labubu [10] Sales Performance - Over 56,000 units of mini Labubu have been sold on the Dewu app within a week, with an average transaction price of 138 yuan, which is a 75% premium over the original price of 79 yuan [1] - The average transaction price for a specific set (N~Z) dropped from 1930 yuan on the release day to 1541 yuan, a decrease of 20% [1] - The average price for non-popular styles has also seen a significant decline, with one style dropping 57% from its release price [1] Market Dynamics - The mini Labubu's resale market is experiencing a rapid price decline due to increased supply and a larger initial release [9] - The presence of 30 different products in the series has led to reduced trading volume in the secondary market as users engage in self-exchange [9] - The mini Labubu's online-only sales strategy has minimized the impact of scalpers, as physical stores are only responsible for pick-up [9] Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the prices of mini Labubu may continue to decline with the anticipated second round of product releases in October [9] - The mini Labubu is unlikely to generate sustained buzz on social media, limiting its potential for long-term sales success [9]

| 腰 最近购买 | * 签别记录 | | | ■ 最近购买 | ■ 鉴别记录 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | := 整套14个A-MR | | 确认数-A 拆盒 .. | 49 | 中国 .. | 确认歌-&(拆盒 .. | | 确认数-隐藏 | | 得物价格趋势 降价提醒 > | | 30天 | 90元 主题 | | 得物价格趋势 摩价提醒 > | 30天 | 90大 全部 | | | | 成交均价 ¥1787 想要人数 257 | | | | 成交均价 ¥679 | 想要人数 134 | | V2110 | ● 摄胶4.0 心性密码 miril labubu 发布 | | | 3/10/70 | 图 1104.0 心脏密码 mink labubu 发布 | | | | ¥2023 | | | | 1976 | | | | | 10037 | | | | CHBA | | | | | V1851 | | | | ANSE | | | | | 10765 | | | | NODA | | | | | ¥1679 08:05 ...

Core Insights - The resale prices of the mini version of Labubu have started to decline just one week after its release, with scalpers indicating that the price momentum is weaker compared to the third generation Labubu [2][6] - The transaction volume for the mini version Labubu has exceeded 56,000 units within a week, with an average transaction price of 138 yuan, representing a 75% premium over the original price of 79 yuan, although resale prices have decreased by 10%-60% compared to the pre-sale period [2][6] Pricing Trends - The average transaction price for the mini version Labubu on the Dewu app peaked at 1,930 yuan on the release day but has since dropped to 1,541 yuan, a decline of 20% [2] - The average transaction price for the hidden version of Labubu has decreased from 991 yuan at launch to 679 yuan [6] - The average transaction price for non-popular models has also seen significant declines, with one model dropping 57% from its release price [2][6] Market Dynamics - The rapid price decline of the mini version Labubu is attributed to a higher supply volume and the inclusion of 30 product variants, which has reduced the liquidity in the secondary market [7] - The company is taking measures to mitigate scalper interference, including online-only sales and limiting in-store stock to reduce hoarding [7] - Analysts predict that the upcoming second round of mini version Labubu releases in October may lead to further price declines [7] Stock Performance - Following the release of the mini version Labubu, the stock price of Pop Mart (09992.HK) has decreased by 5.61% over the past five days [7]

Core Insights - LABUBU is a successful phenomenon in the collectible toy industry, but the company needs to consider sustainable development after achieving success [2] - The revenue from the THE MONSTERS series, where LABUBU belongs, constitutes a significant portion of the company's income, raising questions about the development of other IPs [2] - The company acknowledges the need to improve product quality and manage supply to prevent counterfeit products from entering the market [2] Company Performance - LABUBU's popularity has led to issues such as long-term stock shortages and quality complaints from consumers [2] - The introduction of a mini version of LABUBU has generated significant consumer interest, but the company must continue to innovate and develop new IPs alongside LABUBU [2][3] - The company is exploring other potential IPs, with the "Star People" series showing promising sales performance [3][4] Market Trends - The "Star People" series, particularly the "Good Dream Meteorological Bureau" series launched in August, has seen increased consumer interest and is experiencing stock shortages [4] - The resale market for "Star People" products has shown significant price fluctuations, with hidden versions selling for over 700 yuan, indicating strong demand [4] - Other IPs like HACIPUPU and CRYBABY have also shown remarkable growth, with revenue increases of 249.6% and 248.7% respectively in the first half of the year [5]

2、持续理解市场需求，产能储备、柔性化能力提升。据业绩会，公司现有毛绒产能相较年初已增加10 倍左右，达每月3000 万件，持续对市场需求进行理解与追赶——8 月28 日发售的mini LABUBU"心底密 码"系列毛绒挂件再度引起粉丝热情，虽仍在短时间内售罄，但消费者整体购买体验有明显优化；展望 后续，伴随对更多区域市场需求的理解更加深入，叠加产能及供应链安排优化带来的供应链柔性，我们 认为公司对需求与供给的匹配能力与精准度将进一步提升。 3、海外市场快速成长，运营仍有待细化之处，长期空间仍广。目前泡泡海外市场热度持续向好，泰国 ICONSIAM旗舰店在8 月初开业后店效出色，对其他门店亦并无虹吸效应，美国快速开店但需求增长更 快，带来线上占比持续提升。而相比国内，海外门店模型、线上官网、会员体系等运营细节均有待细化 之处，我们认为公司的零售基因与能力有望支撑近两年快速扩张后的同店向好，持续看好公司全球化战 略的长期空间。 盈利预测与估值 研究员：徐卓楠/张雪晴/王杰睿 公司近况 近期我们邀请了泡泡玛特管理层进行业绩后NDR交流，与投资者就供应链、IP运营、品类扩张等话题进 行了深入沟通。 评论 1、品类扩 ...

Group 1: Company Developments - Anzheng Fashion focuses on mid-to-high-end brand fashion, achieving a turnaround in net profit year-on-year in the first half of the year [2] - Zhengye Technology's subsidiary has mastered the "silver-free process" for heterojunction battery technology [2] - Meibang Clothing, a leading domestic leisure apparel brand, is set to enhance its production capacity for foldable screens significantly by 2025 [3] Group 2: Industry Trends - The State Council emphasizes the acceleration of service consumption and new consumption growth points [2] - The demand for data centers and energy storage is expected to grow rapidly [4] - The National Development and Reform Commission is promoting the development of the biopharmaceutical industry among central enterprises [4] Group 3: Market Movements - Companies like Tongrun Equipment and China Ruilin are experiencing stock price increases, with Tongrun Equipment's stock rising for two consecutive days [4] - The international gold price has reached a historical high, benefiting companies like Eurasia Group, which collaborates with well-known gold brands [4] - The stock price of Pop Mart has reached a new historical high, indicating strong market interest in IP economy [5]