Group 1 - The third China International Supply Chain Promotion Expo is ongoing, with over 230 new exhibitors participating alongside returning companies, highlighting its role as an important international platform for maintaining global supply chain stability [1][2] - Companies like Rio Tinto and GE Healthcare are showcasing their collaborative efforts and innovations in supply chain solutions, emphasizing the importance of partnerships in achieving sustainable development and technological advancements [1][2] - The expo aims to foster long-term mutually beneficial cooperation rather than short-term transactions, promoting a collaborative environment among exhibitors [3] Group 2 - New participants such as PwC and Schneider Electric are leveraging the expo to share experiences and seek partnerships, focusing on green supply chain practices and advanced manufacturing solutions [2] - The expo is evolving into a 3.0 version of its "finding friends" model, utilizing big data and AI to enhance business matchmaking and collaboration opportunities [3] - The event emphasizes the importance of resource optimization and collaboration among quality enterprises, regardless of their position in the supply chain [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the steel and non-ferrous metal industries [1] Core Viewpoints - The supply-side reform in China is expected to break the deflationary cycle and create investment opportunities in the steel and non-ferrous metal sectors [1][6] - The report emphasizes the importance of "supply constraints" to manage the supply-demand balance and mitigate economic downturn risks [6][12] - The steel industry is facing severe overcapacity, with state-owned enterprises holding a significant market share, which facilitates the implementation of administrative measures to control production [6][28] Summary by Sections 1. Supply-Side Reform and Economic Management - The socialist market economy in China allows for effective macroeconomic control, contrasting with the cyclical issues faced in capitalist economies [12][13] - Historical experiences show that demand stimulus alone is insufficient to resolve deep-seated deflationary pressures [14][15] - The supply-side reform initiated in 2016 has proven successful in stabilizing prices and improving corporate profitability [21][22] 2. Steel Industry Analysis - The steel industry has been in a state of oversupply from 2007 to 2024, with crude steel production increasing from 490 million tons to 1.01 billion tons, while apparent consumption has not kept pace [28][29] - The production capacity utilization rates for rebar and wire rod are expected to decline from around 70% to 50% due to weak real estate demand [33][34] - The concentration of production among state-owned enterprises is high, with central state-owned enterprises accounting for approximately 63% of total production in 2024 [38][39] 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three categories of investment targets: profit recovery, stable profit with valuation repair, and stable high-dividend stocks [51] - Specific companies recommended for profit recovery include Liugang Co., Taigang Stainless Steel, and Shandong Iron and Steel, with projected annualized PE ratios improving significantly under favorable conditions [51]

Core Viewpoint - The third China International Supply Chain Promotion Expo showcases collaboration between global mining giant Rio Tinto and China's largest steel producer, China Baowu Steel Group, focusing on innovative materials for the automotive industry and low-carbon solutions for electric vehicles [2][3][4]. Group 1: Company Collaborations - Rio Tinto and China Baowu are jointly presenting their latest iron ore project, the West Pit Iron Mine in Western Australia, which has a total investment of $2 billion and an annual production capacity of 25 million tons [3]. - The West Pit project is a continuation of the joint venture between Rio Tinto and China Baowu, with Rio Tinto holding a 54% stake and China Baowu holding 46% [3]. - The companies are also showcasing progress on the SimFer project in Guinea, with expected iron ore shipments starting in November 2025, and an estimated annual shipment volume of 500,000 to 1 million tons [3]. Group 2: Product Innovations - Rio Tinto is highlighting its innovative multi-material solutions, including iron, copper, aluminum, and lithium, which are essential for energy transition applications such as electric vehicles and energy storage systems [2]. - China Baowu is presenting its fifth-generation platform-based, integrated pure electric vehicle body solution, BCB EV® Meta, which aims to achieve lower carbon emissions while meeting higher safety standards for electric vehicles [3]. Group 3: Industry Trends - The CEO of Rio Tinto's China division emphasizes the importance of building a low-carbon, resilient, and inclusive supply chain, with China playing a crucial role in global manufacturing and low-carbon transition [4].

Overview - The metallurgical industry in China is focusing on energy conservation and emission reduction, aiming to minimize energy consumption and pollutant emissions while ensuring product quality and output [1][9][21] - In 2024, total investment in energy conservation and emission reduction by metallurgical enterprises is projected to decrease to 42 billion yuan, with energy-saving benefits dropping to 13 billion yuan [11] Market Policies - The Chinese government has implemented a series of policies to promote energy conservation and carbon reduction in the metallurgical industry, including action plans and guidelines aimed at reducing energy consumption and carbon emissions [4][6] - Specific targets for comprehensive energy consumption and carbon emission intensity in the steel industry have been established to guide the development of energy conservation and emission reduction efforts [4][6] Industry Chain - The energy conservation and emission reduction industry in metallurgy includes manufacturers of energy-saving equipment, technology providers, and software service providers [7] - The upstream supply chain consists of raw material suppliers, component manufacturers, and research institutions, while the downstream market primarily targets the steel and non-ferrous metal industries [7] Current Development - In 2023, the metallurgical industry consumed 680 million tons of standard coal and emitted 1.98 billion tons of CO2, with significant reductions expected in 2024 due to policy support [9][11] - The environmental cost per ton of steel is approximately 138 yuan, with carbon trading revenues estimated at 3.5 billion yuan [11] Competitive Landscape - Major players in the industry include large metallurgical groups like Baowu Steel and Hebei Iron and Steel, which are leading the development of energy-saving technologies [13][16] - Specialized energy-saving technology companies, such as China Metallurgical Group, focus on specific areas like waste heat recovery and flue gas purification [13][18] Future Trends - The dual carbon goals and related policies will continue to drive the metallurgical industry towards stricter energy consumption and emission standards [21] - The adoption of electric furnace short-process steelmaking technology is expected to increase, gradually shifting the industry away from traditional long-process methods [21]

Summary of Steel Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The steel industry is undergoing supply-side reforms driven by anti-involution policies, aiming to improve competition and reduce excess capacity, which presents long-term investment opportunities [1][4][29] - The profitability of steel companies is significantly influenced by supply-demand dynamics, with a strong production incentive when rebar profits exceed 100 yuan, but this can lead to price declines [1][7] Key Points Supply and Demand Dynamics - The real estate market downturn has negatively impacted demand for construction steel, with new housing starts and construction area both declining [1][12] - Infrastructure investment has increased but is insufficient to offset the decline in residential construction, leading to an expected 5%-6% decrease in construction steel demand by 2025 [1][13] - Global iron ore supply is expected to increase, with new low-cost projects disrupting oligopolistic structures and optimizing cost structures [1][18] - The steel industry is currently experiencing a low inventory cycle, which reflects pessimistic market expectations and could lead to a supply-demand tightening if restocking occurs [1][17] Policy and Regulatory Environment - The government has emphasized anti-involution policies, with measures aimed at controlling production and promoting industry consolidation [4][5] - The central government has set a production reduction target of 50 million tons for 2025, although local implementation has been slow [8][10] Company Performance and Outlook - Leading companies like CITIC Special Steel and Baosteel are expected to benefit from product upgrades and high-value income, with their PB valuations currently low [2][30] - Hualing Steel and Shougang have strong profit elasticity, with Hualing expected to recover profits to 1.4-1.5 billion yuan [2][31] - Fangda Special Steel is maintaining profitability due to its efficient business model, even in a downturn [2][33] Market Sentiment and Investment Opportunities - The steel sector is at the bottom of the profit cycle, with low valuations and low public fund allocations, indicating high potential returns [2][26] - The market anticipates that strict capacity reductions could lead to a rebound in steel prices and profitability in the second half of the year [2][26][34] Future Trends - The demand for construction steel is expected to decline by 6% in 2025, but a gradual recovery is anticipated from 2026 to 2028 [21] - The global steel production landscape is shifting, with non-China regions expected to see slight growth while developed countries face declines [22] - The steel industry is expected to see significant changes in the next three years, with a clear direction towards supply-side reforms [29] Additional Insights - The anti-involution policy is expected to significantly impact profit distribution within the steel industry, potentially improving domestic steel companies' profit margins [28] - Historical data suggests that strict enforcement of production cuts can have profound effects on market dynamics, emphasizing the importance of supply-demand relationships [27] This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call regarding the steel industry, highlighting the current challenges, regulatory environment, company performances, and future trends.

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the steel industry, suggesting to focus on the bottom repair opportunities in steel stocks [1]. Core Viewpoints - The steel market is currently experiencing a dual weakness in supply and demand during the off-season, but improved market sentiment has led to an increase in steel prices [2][3]. - The overall profitability of the steel industry has improved in the first half of the year due to a significant decline in raw material prices, which has positively impacted steel production costs [3][9]. - The "anti-involution" policy proposed by the Central Financial Committee is expected to enhance market conditions for the steel industry, leading to both valuation and performance recovery in the long term [4][10]. Industry Data Summary Production Data - As of July 11, the production of five major steel products totaled 8.7272 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 124,000 tons [1]. - The average daily molten iron output from 247 steel enterprises was 2.3981 million tons, down 10,400 tons week-on-week, with a blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 89.9%, a decrease of 0.39 percentage points [1][2]. Consumption Data - The apparent consumption of the five major steel products was 8.7307 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 121,900 tons [1][2]. - The consumption changes for specific products included a decrease of 33,700 tons for rebar, 29,100 tons for wire rod, and 18,600 tons for hot-rolled products [1]. Inventory Situation - Total steel inventory was reported at 13.3958 million tons, with a slight week-on-week decrease of 3,500 tons [1]. - Social inventory decreased by 21,200 tons to 9.1401 million tons, while steel mill inventory increased by 17,700 tons to 4.2557 million tons [1]. Profitability Data - The average cost of molten iron for 114 steel mills was stable at 2,256 yuan per ton [1]. - As of July 11, the gross profit per ton for high furnace rebar was 196 yuan, hot-rolled sheets 142 yuan, and cold-rolled sheets 31 yuan, with week-on-week increases of 9 yuan, 16 yuan, and 20 yuan respectively [1][3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the metals and new materials industry [2] Core Views - The report highlights the unexpected increase in US copper tariffs, which may impact supply and demand dynamics in the market [3] - The overall performance of the metals sector has been strong, with the non-ferrous metals index outperforming the broader market indices [4][7] - The report suggests that the long-term trend for gold prices is upward due to central bank purchases and a shift in monetary credit dynamics [3][21] Weekly Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.09%, while the Shenzhen Component increased by 1.78% [4] - The non-ferrous metals index increased by 1.02%, outperforming the CSI 300 by 0.20 percentage points [4][6] - Year-to-date, the non-ferrous metals index has risen by 20.42%, significantly outperforming the CSI 300 [7] Price Changes - Industrial metals and precious metals saw varied price movements, with copper prices down by 2.07% and aluminum prices up by 0.50% [13] - Lithium prices have shown an upward trend, with battery-grade lithium carbonate increasing by 2.01% [17] - Gold prices increased by 1.03%, while silver prices rose by 5.49% [14] Precious Metals - The report notes an increase in gold ETF holdings, indicating a positive sentiment towards gold [21] - The Chinese central bank has resumed gold purchases, which may bolster market confidence [21] Industrial Metals - Copper supply is tightening due to unexpected production cuts, while demand remains stable [3][33] - The report indicates that aluminum prices are expected to trend upward due to supply constraints and policy support [3][49] Steel Industry - The report observes a decrease in steel production and a stable demand environment, with slight price increases for rebar and hot-rolled coils [71] - The overall steel inventory remains stable, indicating a balanced supply-demand situation [71] Growth Cycle Investment Analysis - The report recommends focusing on stable supply-demand dynamics in the new energy manufacturing sector, highlighting companies like Huafeng Aluminum and Asia-Pacific Technology [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the steel sector, highlighting strong price performance and potential recovery in profitability for steel companies [5][6]. Core Insights - The "anti-involution" policy continues to influence the market, leading to stronger expectations for supply-side constraints and supporting higher steel prices [5]. - As of July 11, 2025, steel prices have increased, with notable rises in various categories such as rebar and hot-rolled steel [3][11]. - The report indicates a decrease in steel production and inventory levels, suggesting a tightening supply situation [4][5]. Price Summary - As of July 11, 2025, the prices for key steel products are as follows: - Rebar (20mm HRB400): 3,240 CNY/ton, up 60 CNY/ton from last week - High-line (8.0mm): 3,410 CNY/ton, up 50 CNY/ton - Hot-rolled (3.0mm): 3,350 CNY/ton, up 60 CNY/ton - Cold-rolled (1.0mm): 3,680 CNY/ton, up 70 CNY/ton - Common medium plate (20mm): 3,330 CNY/ton, up 10 CNY/ton [3][11][12]. Production and Inventory - As of July 11, 2025, total steel production for the five major categories was 8.73 million tons, a decrease of 124,400 tons week-on-week [4]. - Total social inventory of the five major steel products decreased by 20,200 tons to 9.1278 million tons, while steel mill inventory increased by 17,700 tons to 4.2557 million tons [4]. Profitability Analysis - The report notes fluctuations in steel profitability, with rebar, hot-rolled, and cold-rolled steel margins changing by -14 CNY/ton, -13 CNY/ton, and +33 CNY/ton respectively week-on-week [3][4]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several companies based on their performance and market position: - For flat steel: Baosteel, Hualing Steel, Nanjing Steel - For special steel: Xianglou New Materials, CITIC Special Steel, Yongjin Co. - For pipe materials: Jiuli Special Materials, Youfa Group, Wujin Stainless Steel - Additionally, it suggests paying attention to high-temperature alloy companies like Fushun Special Steel [5].

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.01% on July 11, with 19 out of 28 sectors experiencing gains, led by non-bank financials and steel, which increased by 2.02% and 1.93% respectively [1] - The banking and building materials sectors saw the largest declines, with decreases of 2.41% and 0.67% [1] Fund Flow Analysis - The main funds in the two markets experienced a net outflow of 6.21 billion yuan, with 7 sectors seeing net inflows [1] - The non-bank financial sector had the highest net inflow of 8.21 billion yuan, coinciding with its 2.02% increase [1] - The computer sector followed with a 1.93% increase and a net inflow of 6.20 billion yuan [1] Steel Industry Performance - The steel sector increased by 1.93% with a net inflow of 865 million yuan, comprising 44 stocks, of which 31 rose and 12 fell [2] - Among the stocks, Baogang Co. led with a net inflow of 650 million yuan, followed by Fushun Special Steel and Anyang Steel with inflows of 321 million yuan and 63 million yuan respectively [2] - The sector also had 9 stocks with net outflows exceeding 10 million yuan, with Hangang Co., Baosteel, and Xinxing Ductile Iron Pipe leading in outflows [2] Individual Stock Highlights - Baogang Co. saw a significant increase of 10.00% with a turnover rate of 4.45% and a main fund flow of 649.71 million yuan [2] - Fushun Special Steel also performed well with a 10.06% increase and a main fund flow of 320.66 million yuan [2] - Conversely, stocks like Hangang Co. and Baosteel experienced notable outflows of 81.56 million yuan and 67.70 million yuan respectively [3]

Group 1 - Thailand's Ministry of Commerce initiated an anti-circumvention investigation on cold-rolled carbon steel products from mainland China, following requests from domestic companies [1] - The investigation aims to determine if the products have been slightly altered to circumvent existing anti-dumping measures [1] - Thailand previously imposed anti-dumping duties on cold-rolled carbon steel from mainland China, Taiwan, and Vietnam, with the current measures set to expire on January 24, 2024 [1] Group 2 - Baoshan Iron & Steel Co., Ltd. and its five subsidiaries are involved in the investigation, including Baosteel Zhanjiang Iron and Steel Co., Ltd. and Wuhan Iron and Steel Co., Ltd. [2] - The Maanshan Group and its six subsidiaries, including Maanshan Iron and Steel Co., Ltd. and China BaoWu Steel Group Corporation Limited, are also implicated [2]