Group 1 - The steel sector saw a 3.1% increase on July 29, with Ba Yi Steel leading the gains at 10% [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3609.71, up 0.33%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 11289.41, up 0.64% [1] - Major stocks in the steel sector showed significant price increases, with Ba Yi Steel at 4.07 and a trading volume of 1.4544 million shares [1] Group 2 - The steel sector experienced a net inflow of 601 million yuan from main funds, while retail investors saw a net outflow of 177 million yuan [2] - The trading data indicates that Ba Yi Steel had a main fund net inflow of 1.17 billion yuan, but also a significant retail net outflow of 1.03 billion yuan [3] - Other notable stocks included Bao Steel with a net inflow of 52.13 million yuan and a retail outflow of 533.64 million yuan [3]

Core Insights - The Central State-Owned Enterprises Innovation-Driven Index (000861) has shown a 0.31% increase as of July 29, 2025, with notable stock performances from companies like Changfei Fiber (9.58% increase) and China Railway Construction Heavy Industry (5.43% increase) [3] - The Central State-Owned Enterprises Innovation-Driven ETF (515900) has risen by 0.32%, with a recent price of 1.55 yuan, and has accumulated a 3.77% increase over the past two weeks [3] - Market consensus remains focused on "low valuation cycle recovery" and "technology growth industry trends," with sector rotation intensifying [3] Performance Metrics - The Central State-Owned Enterprises Innovation-Driven ETF has seen a significant scale increase of 1.16 billion yuan over the past two weeks, ranking in the top quarter among comparable funds [4] - The ETF's net value has increased by 11.25% over the past year, with a maximum monthly return of 15.05% since inception [4] - The ETF has a year-to-date relative drawdown of 0.08%, with the fastest recovery time among comparable funds at 105 days [5] Fee and Tracking Precision - The management fee for the Central State-Owned Enterprises Innovation-Driven ETF is 0.15%, and the custody fee is 0.05%, both of which are the lowest among comparable funds [5] - The ETF has a tracking error of 0.038% over the past five years, indicating the highest tracking precision among comparable funds [5] Index Composition - The Central State-Owned Enterprises Innovation-Driven Index comprises 100 representative listed companies evaluated for innovation and profitability, with the top ten weighted stocks accounting for 34.87% of the index [5]

Market Overview - The market is expected to continue rising in August, driven by liquidity conditions[5] - As of July 28, the Wind All A Index surpassed its peak from October 8 of the previous year, indicating a bullish market sentiment[5] Market Drivers - The upward market movement is attributed to ample incremental capital and improved supply-demand dynamics, particularly in cyclical stocks[7] - Recent trends show a significant increase in public and retail investor participation, with new fund issuance in June reaching nearly 30 billion, the highest monthly level since 2022[8] Investment Strategy - The report recommends focusing on large financial and technology assets, highlighting the potential for banks and insurance companies to benefit from reduced economic risks and lower liability costs[9] - Technology assets are suggested for contrarian trading due to their low trading congestion, with historical performance showing a strong correlation with trading dynamics[9] Key Stock Recommendations - The August stock selection includes: Hong Kong Tech 50 ETF, Fuda Co., Su Neng Co. (automotive), Zhujiang Co., Core International (trading), Wanhua Chemical, Dongcai Technology (chemicals), and others[17] - The report emphasizes the importance of sectors like steel and pharmaceuticals, which are expected to perform well due to demand recovery and policy support[9] Risks - Potential risks include unexpected economic downturns and insufficient policy support, which could impact market performance[18]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry is Neutral, maintained [8] Core Insights - The current round of supply-side optimization in the steel industry emphasizes the "supporting the strong and eliminating the weak" approach, indicating that underperforming capacities should be limited while leading companies are expected to strengthen [2][6] - The market sentiment has significantly improved with the deepening of the "anti-involution" policy, leading to a positive signal of "volume and price linkage" in the steel market [4] - The report highlights that the execution of the "anti-involution" policy may be smoother compared to previous years due to the absence of large-scale stimulus measures, suggesting a gradual improvement in the industry's long-term trends despite short-term fluctuations [2][6] Summary by Sections Supply and Demand Dynamics - The apparent consumption of the five major steel products decreased by 1.03% year-on-year and 0.36% month-on-month, while the average daily transaction volume of construction steel increased by 2.10 thousand tons per day compared to the previous week [4] - The average daily pig iron output of sample steel companies decreased to 2.4223 million tons, a decline of 0.21 thousand tons per day [4] - Total steel inventory decreased by 0.14% month-on-month and 24.22% year-on-year, with long product inventory down by 27.40% year-on-year and plate inventory down by 17.74% year-on-year [4] Price and Profitability - Shanghai rebar prices rose to 3,450 RMB/ton, an increase of 180 RMB/ton, while hot-rolled prices reached 3,520 RMB/ton, up 160 RMB/ton [5] - The estimated profit for rebar is 238 RMB/ton, with a lagging cost profit of 495 RMB/ton [5] - The report suggests that with the support of the "anti-involution" policy and strong determination to curb deflation risks, steel prices may show an upward trend that is easier to rise than to fall [4] Elasticity and Valuation - The report calculates the elasticity of steel stocks based on the assumption that the average net profit per ton of listed steel companies could rise to 200/300/400 RMB/ton, compared to 56 RMB/ton in Q1 2025 [6] - Companies such as Hualing Steel, Nanjing Steel, Baosteel, and CITIC Special Steel are identified as having significant elasticity [6] - The report emphasizes that if the valuation of steel stocks returns to historical averages, it could indicate strong investment opportunities, particularly for companies with low price-to-book (PB) ratios [6][32] Investment Opportunities - The report identifies four main investment lines: 1. Companies benefiting from the release of new capacities in iron ore and coke, such as Nanjing Steel and Hualing Steel [32] 2. Steel stocks with low PB ratios that may experience significant performance and valuation recovery, such as New Steel and Fangda Special Steel [32] 3. Mergers and acquisitions under the state-owned enterprise reform theme, which could enhance asset quality and subsequent valuation recovery [33] 4. High-quality processing leaders and resource leaders, particularly in specialized fields, are also highlighted as worthy of attention [33]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the metals and new materials industry, indicating a favorable investment environment [4][5]. Core Views - The report highlights a significant increase in the performance of the metals sector, with the non-ferrous metals index rising by 6.70% week-on-week, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 5.01 percentage points [4][5]. - The report emphasizes the upward trend in metal prices, particularly in energy metals and small metals, with notable increases of 12.40% and 14.30% respectively [4][11]. - The report suggests that the long-term trend for gold prices is upward due to central bank purchases and a shift in monetary credit patterns, recommending specific stocks in the gold sector [4][23]. Weekly Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.67%, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 2.33% [5]. - The non-ferrous metals index has shown a year-to-date increase of 30.82%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 25.94 percentage points [9]. Price Changes - Industrial metals and precious metals have shown varied price changes, with copper prices decreasing by 0.09% and aluminum prices increasing by 0.23% [4][17]. - Energy materials such as lithium and cobalt have seen significant price increases, with battery-grade lithium carbonate rising by 15.15% [4][18]. Key Company Valuations - The report provides valuations for key companies in the metals sector, indicating potential investment opportunities based on their earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios [20][21]. - For example, Zijin Mining is valued at a PE of 25 for 2023, while Shandong Gold has a PE of 59 [20]. Supply and Demand Analysis - The report notes a decrease in copper social inventory by 2.91 million tons, indicating a tightening supply situation [35]. - The aluminum sector is experiencing a decline in downstream processing enterprise operating rates, which may impact future supply dynamics [52][54]. Growth Cycle Investment Analysis - The report recommends focusing on stable supply-demand dynamics in the new energy manufacturing sector, highlighting specific companies for potential investment [4].

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods Model Name: Central Enterprise Innovation Index (000861.CSI) - **Model Construction Idea**: The index selects 100 representative listed companies under the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) based on their innovation and profitability to reflect the overall performance of innovative central enterprises[8] - **Model Construction Process**: - **Sample Space**: All listed companies under SASAC[9] - **Step 1**: Rank the securities in the sample space by average daily trading volume over the past year and exclude the bottom 20%[9] - **Step 2**: Select the remaining securities controlled by SASAC and its subsidiaries[9] - **Step 3**: Exclude securities with negative operating cash flow in the past year and negative net profit excluding non-recurring items in the past two years[9] - **Step 4**: Calculate the innovation score for non-financial companies based on R&D expenditure, R&D personnel ratio, patent quality score, and participation in national or industry standards. For financial companies, use revenue, net profit, patent quality score, and participation in standards[9] - **Step 5**: Rank the remaining securities by innovation score and select the top 50% as innovation-themed securities[9] - **Step 6**: Calculate the quality score for non-financial companies based on ROE, net profit growth, earnings quality, and financial leverage. For financial companies, use ROE and net profit growth. Combine the quality score with the scale score (based on market cap) to get a comprehensive score[9] - **Step 7**: Select the top 100 securities by comprehensive score as index samples[9] - **Adjustment**: The index samples are adjusted semi-annually[9] - **Model Evaluation**: The index is designed to reflect the performance of innovative central enterprises, with a focus on maintaining representativeness and accuracy through regular adjustments[8][9] Model Backtesting Results - **Central Enterprise Innovation Index**: - **Cumulative Return Since Inception**: 138.08%[5][10] - **Excess Return Over Major Indices**: - CSI 300: 79.25%[5] - SSE Composite Index: 83.67%[5] - CSI 500: 54.40%[5] - CSI 800: 74.09%[5] - **5-Year Cumulative Return**: 33.70%[10] - **Excess Return Over Major Indices in 5 Years**: - CSI 300: 49.24%[10] - SSE Composite Index: 29.47%[10] - CSI 800: 47.94%[10] Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods Factor Name: Innovation Score - **Factor Construction Idea**: Evaluate the innovation capability of non-financial and financial companies based on specific indicators[9] - **Factor Construction Process**: - **Non-Financial Companies**: - R&D expenditure to market cap ratio (40% weight) - R&D personnel ratio (10% weight) - Patent quality score (40% weight) - Participation in national or industry standards (10% weight)[9] - **Financial Companies**: - Revenue (40% weight) - Net profit (10% weight) - Patent quality score (40% weight) - Participation in national or industry standards (10% weight)[9] - **Calculation**: Sum the weighted scores to get the innovation score[9] Factor Name: Quality Score - **Factor Construction Idea**: Assess the financial quality of companies based on profitability and financial stability[9] - **Factor Construction Process**: - **Non-Financial Companies**: - ROE (30% weight) - Net profit growth (35% weight) - Earnings quality (25% weight) - Financial leverage (10% weight)[9] - **Financial Companies**: - ROE (50% weight) - Net profit growth (50% weight)[9] - **Calculation**: Sum the weighted scores to get the quality score[9] Factor Backtesting Results - **Innovation Score**: - **Top 50% Selection**: Used to identify innovation-themed securities[9] - **Quality Score**: - **Comprehensive Score Calculation**: Combined with scale score to select top 100 securities[9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several steel companies, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [5][8]. Core Insights - The black industrial chain has experienced significant price fluctuations, with the CITIC Steel Index rising by 7.55% during the week, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 5.86 percentage points [1][85]. - The report highlights a rebound in steel prices due to a reversal in inventory cycles, driven by strong domestic and external demand in the first half of the year, although uncertainties remain due to tariff frictions [2][6]. - The report anticipates that the implementation of "anti-involution" policies will accelerate the recovery of industry profitability, with a focus on reducing production capacity [2][6]. Supply Analysis - Daily molten iron production has decreased slightly to 242.2 thousand tons, with a marginal decline in long-process production [11][14]. - The capacity utilization rate for domestic blast furnaces is reported at 90.8%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points week-on-week [14][20]. Inventory Analysis - Total steel inventory has slightly decreased by 0.1 percentage points, with social inventory increasing while steel mill inventory has significantly declined [20][22]. - The social inventory of five major steel products stands at 9.271 million tons, up 0.5% week-on-week but down 27.4% year-on-year [22][27]. Demand Analysis - Apparent consumption of five major steel products has shown a slight decline of 0.2% week-on-week, indicating resilient demand despite the overall weakness [36][46]. - Weekly average transaction volume for construction steel has increased by 22.4% compared to the previous week, reaching 115 thousand tons [36][37]. Raw Material Analysis - Iron ore prices have strengthened, with the Platts 62% Fe iron ore price index rising to $102.6 per ton, a week-on-week increase of 2.4% [45][54]. - The report notes a decrease in Australian iron ore shipments by 10.5% week-on-week, while Brazilian shipments increased by 17.4% [54][68]. Price and Profit Analysis - The report indicates a significant improvement in immediate gross margins for steel products, with the Myspic comprehensive steel price index rising by 4.2% week-on-week [66][67]. - Current prices for rebar in Beijing and Shanghai have increased by 7.7% and 5.5% respectively, reflecting a positive trend in the market [67][70]. Key Stocks - The report recommends several stocks for investment, including: - Xinxing Ductile Iron Pipes (Buy) - Nanjing Steel (Buy) - Hualing Steel (Buy) - Baosteel (Buy) - Jiuli Special Materials (Buy) - New Steel (Increase Holding) [8][89].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for several companies in the steel sector, including Hualing Steel, Baosteel, Nanjing Steel, and others, indicating a positive outlook for their performance [3]. Core Insights - The demand for special steel is expected to rise due to the commencement of the Yajiang Hydropower Station project, with an estimated special steel demand of approximately 4-6 million tons, significantly exceeding similar hydropower projects [3][7]. - Steel prices have increased, with notable weekly price rises across various steel products, indicating a strengthening market [1][10]. - The profitability of steel manufacturers is recovering, with significant increases in gross margins for rebar, hot-rolled, and cold-rolled steel [1][2]. Price Trends - As of July 25, 2025, the price of 20mm HRB400 rebar in Shanghai is 3,450 CNY/ton, up 180 CNY/ton from the previous week, while hot-rolled and cold-rolled steel prices also saw increases of 170 CNY/ton [1][10]. - The report highlights a 5.5% weekly increase in rebar prices and a 4.6% increase in cold-rolled prices, reflecting a positive price trend in the steel market [11]. Production and Inventory - The total production of the five major steel products decreased to 8.67 million tons, with a slight weekly decline of 1.22 million tons, while total inventory also saw a decrease [2]. - Rebar production increased by 2.9 million tons to 2.1196 million tons, indicating a positive trend in production for this specific category [2]. Profitability Analysis - The report indicates that the gross profit margins for rebar, hot-rolled, and cold-rolled steel have increased by 46 CNY/ton, 45 CNY/ton, and 79 CNY/ton respectively, showcasing a recovery in profitability for steel manufacturers [1][2]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several companies for investment, including Hualing Steel, Baosteel, Nanjing Steel in the general steel sector, and Xianglou New Materials, CITIC Special Steel in the special steel sector, among others [3].

硅钢，钢铁行业中冶炼工艺较为复杂的一类钢种，尤其取向硅钢更是钢铁产品中制造难度最大的品种之 一。在很长一段时间里，我国高端硅钢产品的生产领域几乎一片空白。 作为钢铁工人，面对这样的处境，我一直憋着一股劲儿，下决心要改变被动局面。2008年，在没有成熟 经验可借鉴的情况下，我和同事们持续攻关技术，跟踪每一个实验钢卷，反复调试、分析验证，一次又 一次向"不可能"发起冲锋。最终，我们摸索出"脱碳退火操作法"，将高端取向硅钢产品的合格率提高了 10倍多，厂里从此能够稳定生产550千伏大型变压器用高端硅钢产品，打破了我国高端硅钢长期被国外 企业垄断的局面。 创新突破会上瘾。从1996年入职武钢硅钢厂至今，我已经在钢铁厂一线工作近30年。其间，我先后攻克 了60多项技术难关，刷新15项技术指标纪录。领导曾问我要不要转岗成为管理干部，自己依然选择了坚 守在技术操作岗位。没别的，就是想多享受将"不可能"变为"可能"的满足感，看到一个个技术难题在自 己手上得到解决，那份骄傲和自豪，是无法用言语形容的。 什么是创新？在我看来，工厂车间有很多需要改进的地方，能够钻研其中，创造一种方法解决一类问 题，就是创新。比如，改进思路、花小钱 ...

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