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钢材库存压力有限,重视阶段性回调的配置机会
Xinda Securities· 2026-02-08 09:04
Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry is "Bullish" [2]. Report's Core View - The current inventory accumulation pressure of the five major steel products is relatively limited, with the overall inventory at a relatively low level in history and the inventory accumulation speed slower than in previous years. Coupled with the supply support formed by the potential slight contraction of local production capacity due to recent safety inspections, the steel inventory pressure is limited. Currently, the profit per ton of general steel is considerable. Against the backdrop of the industry's "anti - involution," the performance improvement space of general steel companies is large, and they are expected to experience value restoration. The steel sector is also expected to present an opportunity for allocation. Based on the judgment of the steel industry cycle, the steel sector has strong "anti - involution" attributes and a large profit restoration space. High - quality steel enterprises have excellent upward elasticity brought about by the gradual restoration of performance and the room for the sector's valuation to rise due to the improvement of the supply pattern. The sector still has medium - to - long - term strategic investment opportunities, so the "Bullish" rating for the industry is maintained [2][3]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. This Week's Performance of the Steel Sector and Individual Stocks - The steel sector fell 3.02% this week, underperforming the broader market. The CSI 300 fell 1.33% to 4643.60. The top three sectors in terms of gains and losses were food and beverage (4.44%), textile and apparel (2.23%), and banking (2.09%) [10]. - The special steel sector fell 2.10%, the long - product sector fell 1.88%, the plate sector fell 3.84%, the iron ore sector fell 1.74%, the steel consumables sector fell 3.02%, and the trade and distribution sector fell 4.006% [2][13][17]. - The top three stocks in the steel sector in terms of gains and losses were Boyun New Materials (9.79%), Dazhong Mining (5.92%), and Shengde Xintai (4.72%) [15]. 2. This Week's Core Data Supply - As of February 6, the daily average hot metal output was 228.58 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.60 million tons (0.26%) and a year - on - year increase of 0.06% [25]. - As of February 6, the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of sample steel enterprises was 85.7%, a week - on - week increase of 0.22 percentage points [25]. - As of February 6, the electric furnace capacity utilization rate of sample steel enterprises was 48.1%, a week - on - week decrease of 7.59 percentage points [25]. - As of February 6, the output of the five major steel products was 720.8 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.55 million tons (0.21%) [25]. Demand - As of February 6, the consumption of the five major steel products was 760.7 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 41.08 million tons (5.12%) [35]. - As of February 6, the trading volume of construction steel by mainstream trading companies was 3.5 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.25 million tons (48.24%) [35]. - As of February 1, 2026, the commercial housing transaction area in 30 large and medium - sized cities was 1.655 million square meters, a week - on - week increase of 226,000 square meters [35]. - As of February 8, the net financing amount of local government special bonds was 1.0851 trillion yuan, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 121.74% [35]. Inventory - As of February 6, the social inventory of the five major steel products was 940.4 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 49.68 million tons (5.58%) and a year - on - year decrease of 18.04% [43]. - As of February 6, the in - plant inventory of the five major steel products was 397.3 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 9.56 million tons (2.47%) and a year - on - year decrease of 24.13% [43]. Steel Prices - As of February 6, the general steel composite index was 3414.2 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 13.31 yuan/ton (0.39%) and a year - on - year decrease of 5.51% [49]. - As of February 6, the special steel composite index was 6582.0 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 2.28 yuan/ton (0.03%) and a year - on - year decrease of 2.88% [49]. Steel Mill Profits - As of January 30, the national average hot metal cost was 2396 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 12.0 yuan/ton [57]. - As of February 6, the profit per ton of construction steel electric furnace at normal electricity price was - 76 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 4.0 yuan/ton (5.00%) [57]. - As of February 6, the profit per ton of blast furnace for rebar was 65 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 14.0 yuan/ton (27.45%) [57]. - As of February 6, the profitability rate of 247 steel enterprises was 39.39%, unchanged from the previous week [57]. Futures - Spot Basis - As of February 6, the spot basis of hot - rolled coils was - 1 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 17.0 yuan/ton [65]. - As of February 6, the spot basis of rebar was 143 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 21.0 yuan/ton [65]. - As of February 6, the spot basis of coke was - 117 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 18.0 yuan/ton [65]. - As of February 6, the spot basis of coking coal was 73.5 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 21.5 yuan/ton [65]. - As of February 6, the spot basis of iron ore was 4.5 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 2.0 yuan/ton [65]. Raw Materials: Price & Profit - As of February 6, the spot price index of Australian powder ore in Rizhao Port (62% Fe) was 764 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 29.0 yuan/ton [74]. - As of February 5, the ex - warehouse price of main coking coal in Jingtang Port was 1700 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 80.0 yuan/ton [74]. - As of February 6, the ex - factory price of first - grade metallurgical coke was 1770 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week [74]. - As of February 6, the average profit per ton of coke for independent coking enterprises was - 10 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 45.0 yuan/ton [74]. - As of February 6, the price difference between hot metal and scrap steel was 66.3 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 51.9 yuan/ton [74]. 3. Valuation Table and Key Announcements of Listed Companies Valuation Table of Listed Companies - The table shows the closing prices, net profits attributable to parent companies, EPS, and P/E ratios of multiple listed steel companies from 2024 to 2027 [75]. Key Announcements of Listed Companies - Youfa Group plans to invest in establishing a wholly - owned subsidiary, Guangdong Youfa Pipe Industry Technology Co., Ltd., with a registered capital of 500 million yuan [76]. - Hainan Mining is planning to acquire the control rights of Luoyang Fengrui Fluorine Industry Co., Ltd. through the issuance of shares and payment of cash and raise supporting funds. The company's stock has been suspended since January 29, 2026, with an expected suspension time of no more than 10 trading days [76]. - Hualing Steel has repurchased 56,023,339 shares as of January 31, 2026, accounting for 0.8109% of the total share capital, with a total transaction amount of 278,597,423.90 yuan [78]. - Anyang Iron and Steel expects a loss of about 460 million yuan in 2025, with a year - on - year reduction of about 85.94% in the loss amount. The net profit after deducting non - recurring gains and losses is expected to be about - 748 million yuan, with a year - on - year reduction of about 77.44% in the loss amount [78]. 4. This Week's Important Industry News - The new - home transactions in 10 major cities increased by 26.8% week - on - week, indicating a warming of real estate demand and having a marginal boost to the demand for construction steel [79]. - Indonesia has suspended the spot coal export due to the government's production cut plan, which may affect China's coal supply and be negative for steel prices [79]. - As of February 2, 23 listed steel companies have released their 2025 performance forecasts, with 12 in profit and 11 in loss [79]. - In January 2026, the sales volume of excavators in China was 18,708 units, a year - on - year increase of 49.5%, with domestic sales increasing by 61.4% and exports increasing by 40.5% [79].
钢铁:惊涛之后
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2026-02-08 08:02
证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2026 02 07 年 月 日 钢铁 惊涛之后 行情回顾(2.2-2.6): 铁水产量增加,库存增幅扩大。本周全国高炉产能利用率回升,国内 247 家钢厂高炉产能利用率为 85.7%,环比+0.3pct,同比-0.1pct;五大品种 钢材周产量为 819.9 万吨,环比-0.4%,同比+1.4%;本周长流程产量增 加,日均铁水产量增 0.7 万吨至 228.6 万吨,钢材产量小幅下降,螺纹 钢产量降幅明显;库存方面,本周五大品种钢材周社会库存为 940.4 万吨, 环比+5.6%,同比-18.0%,钢厂库存为 397.3 万吨,环比+2.5%,同比- 24.1%;钢材总库存增幅扩大,周环比增加 4.6%,较上周增幅扩大 2.9pct,社会库存增幅大于钢厂库存;本周由产量与总库存数据汇总后的 五大品种钢材周表观消费 760.7 万吨,环比-5.1%,同比+22.3%,其中螺 增持(维持) 行业走势 -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 2025-02 2025-06 2025-10 2026-02 钢铁 沪深300 作者 分析师 笃慧 执业证书编 ...
钢铁周报 20260208:铁矿基本面共振,价格趋势下行
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several key companies in the steel industry, including Hualing Steel, Baosteel, Nanjing Steel, and others [2][3]. Core Insights - The iron ore market is experiencing downward price trends due to high overseas shipments and increasing port inventories, which have surpassed 170 million tons. This has led to a structural easing of inventory issues as steel mills complete their restocking [6][28]. - Short-term expectations for real estate policy relaxation may improve raw material cost pressures, potentially leading to a recovery in steel mill profits. Long-term, the industry is expected to shift from scale expansion to quality and efficiency improvements, benefiting leading enterprises [6][28]. Summary by Sections Domestic Steel Market - As of February 6, 2026, steel prices have decreased, with HRB400 rebar priced at 3,210 CNY/ton, down 30 CNY/ton from the previous week. Other products like high-line and hot-rolled steel also saw price declines [12][13]. International Steel Market - In the U.S., hot-rolled steel prices increased to 1,066 USD/ton, while in Europe, prices fluctuated with hot-rolled steel at 782 USD/ton, reflecting a mixed market response [23][25]. Raw Materials and Shipping Market - Domestic iron ore prices are stable with slight declines, while scrap steel prices have risen to 2,090 CNY/ton. The coal market is influenced by production quota adjustments in Indonesia, affecting prices [28][29]. Production and Inventory - As of February 6, 2026, total steel production decreased to 8.2 million tons, with an increase in total inventory to 939.28 million tons, indicating a rise in stock levels despite production cuts [6][12]. Profitability Analysis - The report indicates a decline in steel margins, with average gross profits for rebar, hot-rolled, and cold-rolled steel decreasing by 27 CNY/ton, 19 CNY/ton, and 21 CNY/ton respectively [6][28]. Key Company Valuations and Stock Performance - The report provides earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for various companies, with Hualing Steel projected to have an EPS of 0.50 CNY in 2025, and a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 12x, indicating a favorable investment outlook [2][3].
钢铁周报 20260208:铁矿基本面共振,价格趋势下行-20260208
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the steel industry, recommending several key companies [2][3]. Core Insights - The iron ore market is experiencing downward price trends due to high overseas shipments and increasing port inventories, which have surpassed 170 million tons. This has led to a structural easing of inventory issues as steel mills complete their restocking [6][28]. - Short-term expectations for real estate policy relaxation may improve raw material cost pressures, potentially leading to a recovery in steel mill profits. Long-term, the industry is expected to shift from scale expansion to quality and efficiency improvements, benefiting leading enterprises [6][28]. Summary by Sections 1. Domestic Steel Market - As of February 6, 2026, the price of 20mm HRB400 rebar in Shanghai is 3,210 CNY/ton, down 30 CNY/ton from the previous week. Other steel products also saw price declines, with hot-rolled and cold-rolled prices decreasing by 20 CNY/ton [12][13]. 2. International Steel Market - In the U.S., the hot-rolled steel price is 1,066 USD/ton, up 16 USD/ton from last week. In Europe, hot-rolled prices are at 782 USD/ton, increasing by 12 USD/ton [23][25]. 3. Raw Materials and Shipping Market - Domestic iron ore prices are stable with slight declines, while scrap steel prices have increased to 2,090 CNY/ton, up 20 CNY/ton from last week. The coal market is stable, with main coking coal prices in North China dropping to 1,320 CNY/ton [28][29]. 4. Production and Inventory - As of February 6, 2026, total steel production is 8.2 million tons, a decrease of 32,700 tons week-on-week. Total inventory has increased by 496,100 tons to 9.3928 million tons [6][12]. 5. Profitability Analysis - The report indicates a decrease in steel profits, with average gross margins for rebar, hot-rolled, and cold-rolled steel declining by 27 CNY/ton, 19 CNY/ton, and 21 CNY/ton respectively compared to the previous week [6][28]. 6. Key Company Valuations and Stock Performance - Recommended companies include Hualing Steel, Baosteel, and Nanjing Steel, all rated as "Buy" with projected earnings per share (EPS) growth over the next few years [2][6].
宝钢股份:公司将充分尊重宝信软件独立性并支持其可持续发展
Zheng Quan Ri Bao Wang· 2026-02-06 11:48
Group 1 - Baosteel Co., Ltd. (600019) expressed its commitment to respecting the independence of Baosight Software (600845) as a listed company [1] - The company will promote business cooperation between both entities based on market principles [1] - Baosteel Co., Ltd. will support Baosight Software's sustainable development within the framework of relevant capital market laws and regulations [1]
宝钢股份:公司于2009年成立了财务共享中心
Zheng Quan Ri Bao· 2026-02-06 11:43
证券日报网讯 2月6日,宝钢股份在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示,公司于2009年成立了财务共享中 心,经过十余年深耕已具备成熟的共享运营体系,在共享领域具有一定的知名度和综合品牌优势。在技 术应用与数字化方面,财务共享中心积极推进业财融合及数智化转型,已在多个关键业务环节实现了数 字化场景的落地与应用,如智慧商旅、智能化费用审核、智慧支付及电子档案归档等。并持续推进AI 赋能与流程运营优化改善。目前,公司只有一个财务共享中心,目前已打破地理区域和业务板块的限 制,后台进行高度集约化管理与服务支持,按照资源配置实现跨区域协同、标准化运营和客户服务。 (文章来源:证券日报) ...
国资委披露87家央企负责人激励收入:中石油董事长86.21万元、中石化董事长84.81万元、中国移动总经理21.61万元
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2026-02-05 15:05
Core Viewpoint - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) announced the incentive income for executives of central enterprises for the 2022-2024 term, which consists of annual salary and term incentive income, with the latter being distributed every three years [1][3]. Group 1: Incentive Income Overview - A total of 87 central enterprises have disclosed their incentive income for the 2022-2024 term [3]. - Notable executives and their respective incentive incomes include: - Jie Houliang, Chairman of China National Petroleum Corporation, with an incentive income of 86.21 million RMB [3]. - Ma Yongsheng, Chairman of Sinopec, with an incentive income of 84.81 million RMB [5]. - Wang Dongjin, Chairman of CNOOC, with an incentive income of 86.06 million RMB [7]. - Zhang Wei, Chairman of State Grid Corporation, with an incentive income of 78.17 million RMB [10]. - Meng Zhenping, Chairman of China Southern Power Grid, with an incentive income of 83.54 million RMB [11]. Group 2: Additional Executive Incentive Incomes - Other notable executives include: - Wen Shugang, Chairman of China Huaneng Group, with an incentive income of 63.47 million RMB [12]. - Zou Lei, Chairman of China Datang Corporation, with an incentive income of 80.02 million RMB [14]. - Liu Mingsheng, Chairman of State Power Investment Corporation, with an incentive income of 26.02 million RMB [16]. - Wang Xiangming, Chairman of China Resources Group, with an incentive income of 82.44 million RMB [36]. - Miao Jianmin, Chairman of China Merchants Group, with an incentive income of 85.08 million RMB [34].
自由现金流ETF中证全指(561080)跌1.55%,半日成交额840.67万元
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2026-02-05 03:44
Group 1 - The Freedom Cash Flow ETF CSI All Index (561080) closed down 1.55% at 1.330 yuan with a trading volume of 8.4067 million yuan [1] - Major holdings in the ETF include China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) down 1.12%, SAIC Motor up 0.14%, Gree Electric Appliances down 0.33%, COSCO Shipping Holdings up 0.07%, Muyuan Foods down 0.15%, Aluminum Corporation of China down 6.77%, TCL Technology down 0.61%, Baosteel down 1.52%, Great Wall Motors up 1.06%, and Chint Electric down 4.14% [1] - The ETF's performance benchmark is the CSI All Index Free Cash Flow Index, managed by Huaan Fund Management Co., Ltd. The fund has returned 35.06% since its inception on April 23, 2025, and 7.11% over the past month [1]
中国钢铁四巨头,加起来还比不过日本制铁,凭什么?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2026-02-05 02:41
Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights that despite the large scale of Chinese steel companies, their profit margins remain weak, with significant revenue but low net profits per ton of steel produced [2][3][4] - In 2024, major Chinese steel companies reported revenues and net profits as follows: Baowu Group with 322.1 billion yuan and 7.362 billion yuan; CITIC Special Steel with 109.2 billion yuan and 5.126 billion yuan; Nanjing Steel with 61.8 billion yuan and 2.261 billion yuan; and Huazhong Steel with 14.46 billion yuan and 2.032 billion yuan, totaling over 16.7 billion yuan in net profit [2] - The article emphasizes that the product structure of Chinese steel, heavily reliant on low-margin ordinary products like rebar and wire rods, leads to lower profitability compared to Japanese steel companies that focus on high-end products [3][4] Group 2 - Japanese steel companies, such as Nippon Steel, have shifted their focus to high-value products, allowing them to sell steel at significantly higher prices, averaging over 1,500 USD per ton compared to China's 755 USD per ton [4][6] - The article notes that while Chinese companies are making efforts to develop high-end products, their overall proportion of high-end offerings still lags behind that of Japanese competitors, which impacts their profitability [8][9] - Strategic moves by Japanese companies, such as Nippon Steel's acquisition of U.S. Steel for 14.1 billion USD, are aimed at securing a stable market and capitalizing on low-carbon steel production advantages [11] Group 3 - Chinese steel companies are also taking steps towards modernization and sustainability, with projects like Baowu's hydrogen metallurgy and Nanjing Steel's focus on raw material stability, indicating a shift towards lower carbon emissions [13] - The article suggests that the future competitive landscape will be defined by low-carbon and intelligent manufacturing, with the potential for Chinese companies to leverage their scale and market advantages if they can effectively transition to higher-margin products [15] - The current disparity in profitability is framed as a reflection of different development stages and paths, with Chinese companies needing to convert their production advantages into profits more effectively [15]
中国宝武邹继新的三方面建议
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2026-02-04 12:21
2026年2月4日上午,上海市政协十四届四次会议举行专题会议,在"着力深化'五个中心'建设,全面提 升城市核心功能,奋力推动高质量发展取得新突破"专题会议上,市政协常委,中国宝武钢铁集团有限 公司党委常委,宝钢股份党委书记、董事长邹继新结合宝钢股份产业转型升级的管理实践,围绕推动钢 铁产业提质升级、更好融入上海"十五五"产业规划,提出三方面建议。 一是更大力度支持钢铁企业提升数智化水平。具体来说,他建议,可以加大数字化转型示范企业、示范 项目的激励力度,发挥领军企业数字化转型对全球产业链的带动作用;搭建数字化转型成果转移转化平 台,统筹推进产学研攻关、成果转化与推广应用;鼓励、引导企业、高校、科研院所加速研发范式变 革,推动基于行业数据库和知识大模型的数字化研发基座建设,构建数据、知识双引擎的AI数字化研 发平台及示范应用。 二是更大力度支持钢铁企业加快绿色化转型。 他认为,可以构建"从供给侧激励到需求侧引导"的绿色 低碳产品激励体系,对冶金低碳工艺产线建设运营给予支持,在产能、能耗双控与减排政策上予以倾 斜;加强绿色供应链体系建设,加大绿色低碳钢材在市政重大项目和工程中的使用比例,促进上海市整 体碳减排;加 ...