Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the aviation industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [47]. Core Insights - The Spring Festival travel season has seen a record high in cross-regional personnel flow, with an estimated total of 5.08 billion trips in the first 20 days, averaging 250 million trips per day, which is a 5.6% increase compared to the same period in 2025 [9][10]. - The aviation sector has shown strong performance in both passenger volume and ticket prices, with a 5.4% year-on-year increase in passenger volume and a 3.3% increase in average ticket prices during the same period [10][11]. - The 2026 Spring Festival is characterized by two main trends: "secondary travel" and "concentrated return trips," driven by a later Spring Festival and longer holiday period [12][13]. Summary by Sections Passenger Volume and Pricing - In the first 20 days of the Spring Festival, the average daily passenger volume for civil aviation reached 2.376 million, a 5.4% increase year-on-year, while the average ticket price was 1003 yuan, up 3.3% year-on-year [10][11]. - The domestic average passenger load factor was 85.1%, reflecting a 1.1% increase year-on-year, indicating strong demand [11]. Market Dynamics - Six listed airlines collectively withdrew 5 aircraft in January 2026, indicating a tightening supply constraint in the industry [26]. - The report highlights that except for Spring Airlines, all other major airlines have shown negative year-on-year growth in capacity deployment, with Spring Airlines leading at 4.5% growth [26]. Demand and Future Outlook - The demand structure in the aviation industry is improving, with a rebound in business travel sentiment since September 2025 [34]. - The introduction of visa-free policies for Canada and the UK starting February 17, 2026, is expected to boost cross-border travel demand [34]. - High passenger load factors are anticipated to lead to increased price elasticity, with the potential for significant price increases in 2026 [35]. Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on major airlines such as Air China, China Southern Airlines, and China Eastern Airlines for potential elasticity release, as well as low-cost carrier Spring Airlines for its core competitive advantages [35].

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the surge in flight demand during the Spring Festival travel peak in Hainan, with many flights from Sanya to major cities like Beijing and Shanghai sold out, leading to significantly high ticket prices for remaining business class seats [1] - Airlines, including Hainan Airlines, have responded to the high ticket prices by stating that price fluctuations are a normal phenomenon influenced by market supply and demand, and they are monitoring prices to ensure they remain within a reasonable range [1] - A total of over 2,000 additional flights have been scheduled during the Spring Festival travel period, with an expected increase of 600,000 seats, and the total seat capacity for the 40-day travel period is projected to exceed 10 million, marking a 10% increase compared to 2025 [1] Group 2 - The Civil Aviation Administration has approved additional flights to meet the high demand for return trips, particularly to popular destinations like Shanghai and Beijing, with daily flights exceeding 100 between Hainan and these cities during the peak travel days [1] - Various airlines, including China Southern Airlines and Eastern Airlines, have also added flights to accommodate the increased passenger flow, demonstrating a coordinated effort among airlines to manage the travel demand effectively [1]

Core Insights - During the peak return period of the Spring Festival holiday, ticket prices for flights from Hainan surged, with some prices approaching 10,000 yuan, while ferry tickets across the Qiongzhou Strait were sold out [1][10] - Major airlines have increased flights, with over 2,000 additional flights scheduled during the Spring Festival period, and various measures have been implemented to facilitate passenger transport [1][13] Flight Pricing and Demand - On February 23, ticket prices for flights from Sanya and other locations in Hainan to major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen saw significant increases, with some prices nearing 10,000 yuan [1] - Prices are expected to drop significantly after February 26 [1] Airline Operations - The four major airlines have added flights to meet the high demand, with a total of over 2,000 additional flights planned during the Spring Festival, increasing seat capacity by approximately 600,000 [13] - The Civil Aviation Administration approved additional flights to popular destinations, with daily flights from Hainan to Beijing and Shanghai exceeding 100 during the peak days [13] Capacity and Infrastructure Improvements - The use of larger aircraft has been prioritized to increase seat availability, with wide-body aircraft operations increasing by 13% compared to last year during the Spring Festival [13][14] - Temporary air routes have been implemented to alleviate congestion during peak flight times, improving airspace capacity by 15% [14] Passenger Volume Statistics - Since the start of the Spring Festival travel season on February 2, the three major airports in Hainan have seen record-breaking passenger throughput, with over 20,000 passengers on 15 separate days [14]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the shipping industry, particularly focusing on oil transportation and shipbuilding sectors, recommending stocks such as ST Songfa and China Merchants Energy [4]. Core Insights - The report highlights a strong performance in oil shipping, with VLCC TCE rates rising by 24% to $146,385 per day, and a significant increase in demand leading to higher freight rates [4]. - The global energy chain's valuation is on the rise, driven by long-term capacity utilization and mid-cycle profit expectations, suggesting a favorable environment for shipping rates [4]. - The report emphasizes the resilience of the dry bulk market, with the BDI index recording a slight increase of 1.19% to 2,043 points, indicating stable demand despite seasonal fluctuations [5]. Summary by Sections Shipping Market Performance - The shipping index decreased by 1.41%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.77 percentage points, with the aviation sector experiencing the largest decline at -5.16% [5]. - The report notes that the coastal dry bulk freight index in China fell by 1.76%, while the Baltic Dry Index increased by 1.19% [5]. Oil Transportation - VLCC rates reached a new high of approximately $160,000 per day during the Spring Festival, with expectations for continued strength in the coming weeks [4]. - The report indicates that the average VLCC freight rate increased by 23% week-on-week, reaching $149,564 per day, reflecting tight capacity and strong demand [4]. Dry Bulk Market - The report mentions that the Capesize freight rate decreased by 4.1%, while the Panamax index showed resilience with a 3.5% increase [4]. - The report anticipates that post-holiday demand recovery will be crucial for the dry bulk market, particularly in iron ore shipments [4]. Air Transportation - The report suggests that the airline industry is at a turning point, with potential for significant profit growth due to increased passenger volumes and operational efficiencies [4]. - Airlines such as China Eastern Airlines and Spring Airlines are highlighted as key players to watch in this sector [4]. Express Delivery - The report notes uncertainties in the express delivery sector due to fluctuating demand and competitive pressures, but highlights the strong market position of leading companies like ZTO Express and YTO Express [4]. Rail and Road Transportation - Rail freight volumes and highway truck traffic are reported to be resilient, with the Ministry of Transport data showing a slight decrease in freight volume but overall stability [4]. - The report identifies two main investment themes in the highway sector: high dividend yields and potential value recovery in undervalued stocks [4].

Core Viewpoint - The civil aviation industry is preparing for a peak in return passenger flow as the Spring Festival holiday ends, with a projected passenger transport volume of 2.66 million on February 22, 2025, representing a 7.5% increase compared to the same period in 2025 [1] Group 1: Industry Response - The Ministry of Transport indicates that civil aviation units are making efforts to manage the post-holiday return passenger flow by scientifically arranging flight capacity and optimizing travel services to ensure passenger safety and smooth travel [1] - The North China Air Traffic Management Bureau is dynamically optimizing flow control measures to enhance overall operational efficiency, considering the characteristics of high traffic and complex weather [1] Group 2: Airport and Airline Operations - Beijing Capital Airport is strengthening coordination with various departments to timely allocate taxi and airport bus resources, ensuring effective connections between flights and ground transportation [1] - China Southern Airlines is increasing the number of flights on popular routes to and from Northeast China, Xinjiang, and Hainan, and is further enhancing capacity by replacing aircraft with wide-body models [1] Group 3: Ticket Availability - In response to the recent tight ticket availability for flights departing Hainan, the Civil Aviation Administration of China has approved multiple batches of flight increase plans, adding over 110 flights in Haikou to popular destinations such as Shanghai, Beijing, and Chengdu [1]

Core Insights - The civil aviation industry is experiencing a peak in return passenger flow as the Spring Festival holiday concludes, with an expected passenger transport volume of 2.66 million on February 22, representing a 7.5% increase compared to the same period in 2025 [1] Group 1: Industry Response - The Ministry of Transport indicates that civil aviation units are fully engaged in managing the post-holiday return passenger flow by scientifically arranging flight capacity and optimizing travel services to ensure safe and smooth travel for passengers [1] - The North China Air Traffic Control Bureau is dynamically optimizing flow control measures to enhance overall operational efficiency, considering the characteristics of high traffic and complex weather conditions [1] - Beijing Capital Airport is strengthening coordination with various departments to timely allocate transportation resources such as taxis and airport buses, ensuring effective connections between flights and ground transportation [1] Group 2: Capacity Adjustments - China Southern Airlines is increasing the number of flights on popular routes to and from Northeast China, as well as Xinjiang and Hainan, by replacing aircraft with wide-body models to further boost capacity [1] - In response to the recent tight ticket availability for flights departing Hainan, the Civil Aviation Administration of China has approved multiple batches of flight increase plans, adding over 110 flights in Haikou, specifically targeting popular destinations such as Shanghai, Beijing, and Chengdu [1]

中国青年报客户端讯（中青报·中青网记者 林洁）2月21日，广州白云国际机场迎来春运生产新突破，单 日起降航班1676架次、接送旅客27.76万人次、保障货邮4154.14吨，同比去年春运分别增长7.37%、 9.12%、9.1%。 春运期间 的东航柜台井然有序。受访者供图 东航在广东投入的座位数同比增加逾10万个，增幅达8.43%；执行航班8100余班，同比增长约5.11%； 预计运输旅客128万人次，同比增长8.21%。随着东航在广州白云国际机场的国际航班转至T3航站楼运 营，东航也进一步优化了国际国内中转流程。 根据春节热门旅游目的地，东航在广州加密了往返西安、昆明、成都、兰州、太原、南京的航班；在深 圳加密了往返大理、太原、武汉航班，并新增深圳往返哈尔滨的直飞航班；在珠海加密了往返昆明、上 海虹桥的航班。在近年来火爆的潮汕市场，东航新增或加密往返上海、成都、南京、郑州、北京、宁 波、昆明、南昌、兰州等地的航班；在湛江加密往返南京、上海、武汉、南昌、成都的航班；在梅州新 增往返上海浦东的航班。 国际机场亮出"广州欢迎您"。受访者供图 广州白云 自2月2日春运启动以来，广州白云国际机场累计运送旅客527.8 ...

Core Viewpoint - Hainan Airport is experiencing a peak in return passenger flow as the Spring Festival holiday concludes, prompting airlines to increase flight capacity to meet travel demand [1] Group 1: Flight Arrangements - China National Airlines will add flights from Haikou Meilan to Beijing Capital and Chengdu Tianfu from February 23 to 25, and to Shanghai Pudong and Hangzhou Xiaoshan on February 24 and 25, with one flight each day [1] - Eastern Airlines will increase flights from Haikou Meilan to Shanghai Pudong daily from February 24 to March 5 [1] - Southern Airlines will add one flight each from Sanya Phoenix to Guangzhou Baiyun on February 23 and from Guangzhou Baiyun to Sanya Phoenix on February 24 [1] Group 2: Overall Capacity Increase - Airlines have scheduled over 2,000 additional flights during the Spring Festival travel period, expected to increase seating capacity by 600,000 [1] - A total of over 10 million seats will be deployed during the 40-day Spring Festival period, representing a 10% year-on-year increase [1] - The Civil Aviation Administration has approved a second batch of additional flights to popular destinations such as Shanghai, Beijing, Chengdu, Fuzhou, and Shenzhen to address the return peak [1] Group 3: Flight Frequency - From the fifth to the seventh day of the Lunar New Year, flights between Hainan and Beijing, Shanghai will exceed 100 flights daily [1]

Group 1 - The increase in passenger traffic from Hainan is attributed to the implementation of the closure operation this year [1][6] - During the Spring Festival period, there is a peak in outbound transportation from Hainan, with tickets for flights and ferries becoming scarce [1][4] - For example, on February 20, the economy class tickets from Haikou to Guangzhou start at 2000 yuan (excluding taxes), and by February 22-23, all economy class tickets are sold out, leaving only a few business class tickets priced at 6210 yuan [1] Group 2 - The ferry tickets for the route from Haikou to Zhanjiang Xu Wen are fully sold out for the upcoming week, indicating high demand [4] - From February 2 to February 10, the total passenger flow in Hainan during the Spring Festival reached 4.86 million, a year-on-year increase of 6.34% [7] - The transportation of new energy vehicles saw a significant increase of 74% compared to the same period last year [7] Group 3 - The average daily inbound and outbound personnel during the Spring Festival is expected to reach 79,300, a 24.1% increase from last year [7] - In contrast, ticket prices for flights from mainland China to Hainan have significantly decreased, with prices as low as 320 yuan on February 24 [8]

Core Viewpoint - China Southern Airlines (600029) experienced a stock price decline of 7.54% this week, closing at 7.6 yuan, down from 8.22 yuan the previous week, despite reaching a near one-year high of 8.46 yuan on February 9, 2026 [1] Company Announcements Summary - In January 2026, the passenger capacity input (measured in available seat kilometers) decreased by 1.10% year-on-year, with domestic capacity down by 5.42%, regional capacity up by 0.12%, and international capacity up by 10.45% [2] - The passenger turnover volume fell by 2.86% year-on-year, with domestic turnover down by 6.91%, regional turnover up by 1.12%, and international turnover up by 7.96% [2] - The passenger load factor was 83.26%, a decrease of 1.51 percentage points year-on-year [2] - Cargo capacity input saw a slight decrease of 0.03% year-on-year, while cargo and mail turnover volume increased by 7.65%, with a cargo load factor of 50.39%, up by 3.59 percentage points year-on-year [2] - No new major routes were added in January, and one A321 aircraft was retired, leaving a total of 971 operational aircraft by the end of January 2026 [1]