交通运输 证 券 研 究 报 告 2024 年 10 月 29 日 南方航空 (600029) ——经营持续改善，三季度旺季实现盈利 31.93 亿元 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 增持（维持）投资要点： ⚫ 事件：南方航空公告 2024 年第三季度业绩，实现归母净利润 31.93 亿元，同比下降 23.89%。公司 2024 年第三季度归属于母公司所有者的净利润 31.93 亿元，同比下降 23.89%，前三季度归属于上市公司股东的净利润 19.65 亿元，同比增长 48.86%；三季度 营业收入 498.71 亿元，同比增长 4.64%，前三季度实现营业收入 1346.61 亿元，同比增 长 12.70%。 ⚫ 运营数据：2024Q3 为航空市场旺季，出行需求旺盛，南方航空经营数据持续提升。根据 公司公告，公司 Q3 整体 ASK 同比 19 年+8%，整体 RPK 同比 19 年+11%，客座率同比 19 年+1.9 pct。国内：公司运量增长高于运力，国内客座率恢复明显。2024Q3 国内 ASK 恢复至 2019 年同期的 119%，同比 23 年+1%；国内 RPK 恢复至 19 年同期的 122 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for China Southern Airlines (600029) [1] Core Views - China Southern Airlines achieved a net profit of 1.97 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 48.9% [1] - Revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 reached 134.66 billion yuan, up 12.7% year-on-year and 15.4% compared to 2019 [1] - The airline industry is seen as a classic domestic demand pro-cyclical sector, with potential for strong price elasticity driven by supply-demand gaps [1] Financial Performance Revenue and Profit - Q3 2024 revenue was 49.87 billion yuan, up 4.6% year-on-year and 14.1% compared to 2019 [1] - Q3 2024 net profit was 3.19 billion yuan, down 23.9% year-on-year but up 33.7% compared to 2019 [1] - The company reported a non-GAAP loss of 580 million yuan for the first three quarters of 2024 [1] Operational Data - ASK (Available Seat Kilometers) increased by 17.7% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2024 [1] - RPK (Revenue Passenger Kilometers) grew by 27.6% year-on-year for the same period [1] - Passenger load factor reached 84.0%, up 6.5 percentage points year-on-year [1] Cost Structure - Total operating costs for the first three quarters of 2024 were 120.7 billion yuan, up 13.5% year-on-year [1] - Fuel costs accounted for 42.9 billion yuan, a 16.2% increase year-on-year [1] - Non-fuel costs rose by 12.1% to 77.8 billion yuan [1] Industry Outlook - The domestic aviation market showed strong recovery, with 7-day average passenger volume reaching 1.79 million in October 2024, exceeding 2019 levels by 12% [1] - Average domestic ticket prices (including fuel surcharges) were 570 yuan, down 16% year-on-year and 19% compared to 2019 [1] Valuation and Forecast - The report adjusted profit forecasts for 2024-2026 to 200 million, 7.5 billion, and 9.8 billion yuan respectively [1] - Estimated EPS for 2024-2026 are 0.01, 0.41, and 0.54 yuan [1] - PE ratios for 2024-2026 are projected at 500x, 15x, and 11x respectively [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5]. Core Views - The company's Q3 earnings exceeded expectations, driven by fleet turnover and wide-body aircraft utilization, leading to accelerated cost improvements. The seasonal transition supports the recovery of supply and demand, with an anticipated rise in the profit center as supply and demand stabilize. The company is expected to actively change its revenue management strategy [2][4]. Summary by Sections Earnings Performance - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a net profit of 3.2 billion yuan, which is a 24% decrease compared to Q3 2023 but still 34% higher than Q3 2019, surpassing market expectations. The net profit for the first three quarters of 2024 reached nearly 2 billion yuan, marking a turnaround from losses [4][5]. Cost Management - The company benefited from improved fleet turnover and wide-body aircraft utilization, resulting in cost pressures easing faster than anticipated. The ASK (Available Seat Kilometers) increased by 8.4% compared to Q3 2019, with international routes recovering to 85% [4]. Revenue Management Strategy - The company is shifting its revenue management strategy from "price first" in 2023 to "load factor first" in 2024, with a 5 percentage point increase in load factor year-on-year in Q3 2024, exceeding levels from Q3 2019. This cautious approach reflects the company's adaptation to changing consumer trends [4]. Strategic Development - The construction of the Beijing Daxing hub is a significant strategic initiative for the company, which is the largest base airline at this airport. The company is expected to benefit from new slot allocation policies and has optimized its route network despite limited fleet growth [4]. Financial Forecast - The report maintains net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 at 1.5 billion, 5 billion, and 9.4 billion yuan, respectively, with a target price of 7.74 yuan per share [4].

Financial Performance - Operating revenue for Q3 2024 reached RMB 49,871 million, an increase of 4.64% year-on-year[2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 23.89% to RMB 3,193 million in Q3 2024[2] - Net profit excluding non-recurring gains and losses was RMB 2,885 million, down 24.26% compared to the same period last year[3] - Basic earnings per share for Q3 2024 was RMB 0.18, a decrease of 21.74% year-on-year[3] - Total operating revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 reached RMB 134,661 million, an increase of 12.7% compared to RMB 119,491 million in the same period of 2023[15] - Operating profit for the first three quarters of 2024 was RMB 2,731 million, down from RMB 3,644 million in the same period of 2023[17] - The net profit for Q3 2024 reached RMB 3,685 million, a significant increase of 33% compared to RMB 2,770 million in Q3 2023[18] - The total comprehensive income for Q3 2024 was RMB 3,555 million, up from RMB 2,688 million in the same period last year, reflecting a growth of 32.3%[19] - Basic earnings per share for Q3 2024 were RMB 0.11, compared to RMB 0.07 in Q3 2023, representing a 57.1% increase[19] - The company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company was RMB 1,965 million, up 48.9% from RMB 1,320 million in Q3 2023[18] Assets and Liabilities - Total assets at the end of Q3 2024 amounted to RMB 315,952 million, reflecting a 2.18% increase from the end of the previous year[3] - Total assets amounted to RMB 315,952 million as of September 30, 2024, up from RMB 309,226 million at the end of 2023, indicating a growth of 2.3%[13] - Total liabilities increased to RMB 260,396 million as of September 30, 2024, compared to RMB 257,229 million at the end of 2023, reflecting a growth of 0.8%[14] - Non-current assets totaled RMB 283,918 million as of September 30, 2024, slightly up from RMB 281,485 million at the end of 2023[13] - The company reported a net loss of RMB 34,923 million in retained earnings as of September 30, 2024, an improvement from a loss of RMB 36,888 million at the end of 2023[14] - Current liabilities totaled CNY 129.436 billion, with short-term borrowings at CNY 51.362 billion[23] - Total liabilities reached CNY 257.229 billion, with non-current liabilities at CNY 127.793 billion[24] - The company has a long-term debt of CNY 38.130 billion and lease liabilities of CNY 69.232 billion[23] - The company recorded a negative retained earnings of CNY -36.888 billion[24] Cash Flow - Cash flow from operating activities for the year-to-date period was RMB 26,857 million, a decrease of 27.37% year-on-year[3] - Operating cash flow for the first nine months of 2024 was RMB 26,857 million, down 27.4% from RMB 36,979 million in the same period of 2023[20] - Cash inflow from operating activities totaled RMB 152,140 million, an increase of 9.3% from RMB 138,845 million in the previous year[20] - The company reported a net cash outflow from investing activities of RMB 10,612 million, worsening from RMB 6,633 million in the same period last year[21] - Total cash and cash equivalents at the end of Q3 2024 were RMB 9,514 million, down from RMB 14,191 million at the end of Q3 2023[21] - Cash and cash equivalents increased to RMB 11,535 million as of September 30, 2024, compared to RMB 9,924 million at the end of 2023, reflecting a growth of 16.2%[12] Shareholder Information - The total number of ordinary shareholders at the end of the reporting period was 152,747[7] - The largest shareholder, China Southern Airlines Group Co., Ltd., held 51.90% of the shares[7] - China Southern Airlines Group holds 9,404,468,936 shares, representing 51.90% of total shares[10] - The largest shareholder, China Southern Airlines Group, has a significant stake compared to other shareholders, with the second-largest, Nanjing Long Holdings, holding 2,612,124,036 shares (14.41%)[10] - The company has a total of 320,484,148 shares held by China Securities Finance Corporation, representing 1.77% of total shares[10] - The report indicates that Spring Airlines holds 140,531,561 shares, which is 0.78% of total shares[10] - The company has a total of 103,847,141 shares held by the ICBC-HuaTai BaRui CSI 300 ETF, representing 0.57% of total shares[10] - The report highlights that the company has engaged in securities lending activities, with Spring Airlines lending 235,200 shares and ICBC-HuaTai BaRui lending 109,000 shares[10] - The company has a total of 100,582,508 shares held by the State-Owned Enterprise Structural Adjustment Fund, accounting for 0.56% of total shares[10] Guarantees and Financial Commitments - The company has provided guarantees totaling $48.88 million across various SPV companies[11] - The total amount guaranteed by SPV companies includes $5.88 million for South Airlines No. 9 and $5.17 million for South Airlines No. 10[11]

证券代码：600029 证券简称：南方航空 公告编号：临 2024-058 中国南方航空股份有限公司 第十届监事会第三次会议决议公告 本公司监事会及全体监事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假 记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性 和完整性承担法律责任。 一、监事会会议召开情况 2024 年 10 月 28 日，中国南方航空股份有限公司（以下简 称"本公司""公司"）第十届监事会第三次会议在广州市白云 区齐心路 68 号中国南方航空大厦 34 楼 33A12 会议室以现场会议 方式召开。应出席会议监事 3 人，实际出席会议监事 2 人，魏振 兴监事因公未出席本次会议，授权杨斌监事代为出席会议并表 决。本次会议由监事会主席任积东先生主持，公司部分高级管理 人员列席。本次会议的通知和资料已以书面方式发出。会议的召 开及表决等程序符合《中华人民共和国公司法》、本公司章程和 本公司监事会议事规则的有关规定。 二、监事会会议审议情况 经出席本次监事会的监事审议并表决，一致通过以下议案： 关于公司 2024 年第三季度报告的议案。 1 公司监事会全体成员对公司 2024 年第三季度报告进行了审 核，发表意见如 ...

证券代码：600029 证券简称：南方航空 公告编号：临2024-057 1 （一）关于公司 2024 年第三季度报告的议案； 该议案已经公司董事会审计与风险管理委员会审议通过，并 同意提交公司董事会审议。 表决情况：同意 6 票、反对 0 票、弃权 0 票，表决结果：通 过。 （二）关于公司 2024 年度"提质增效重回报"行动方案的 半年度评估报告的议案； 中国南方航空股份有限公司 第十届董事会第三次会议决议公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假 记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性 和完整性承担法律责任。 一、董事会会议召开情况 2024 年 10 月 28 日，中国南方航空股份有限公司（以下简 称"本公司""公司"）第十届董事会第三次会议在广州市白云 区齐心路 68 号中国南方航空大厦 33 楼 3301 会议室以现场会议 结合视频会议的方式召开。本次会议应出席会议董事 6 人，实际 出席会议董事 4 人，罗来君董事因公未出席本次会议，授权韩文 胜董事代为出席会议并表决，何超琼董事因公未出席本次会议， 授权张俊生董事代为出席会议并表决。本次会议由董事长马须伦 先生 ...

证券代码：600029 证券简称：南方航空 公告编号：临 2024-059 中国南方航空股份有限公司 2024 年度"提质增效重回报"行动方案的 半年度评估报告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假 记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性 和完整性承担法律责任。 中国南方航空股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）为深入贯 彻中央经济工作会议和中央金融工作会议精神，落实国务院《关 于加强监管防范风险推动资本市场高质量发展的若干意见》《关 于进一步提高上市公司质量的意见》的要求，持续提高上市公司 质量、增强投资者回报、提升投资者获得感，于 2024 年 4 月 29 日发布了《2024 年度"提质增效重回报"行动方案》（以下简称 "行动方案"），现将行动方案的半年度执行情况报告如下： 一、提升经营质量，聚焦做强主业 2024 年以来，公司致力建设具有全球竞争力的世界一流航 空运输企业，全面统筹安全生产经营，全力推动经营提质增效， 推进改革发展战略落地。上半年公司运输旅客 0.79 亿人次，同 比增长 22.19%；实现营业收入 847.90 亿元，同比增长 18.04%。 安全管理方面。 ...

证券代码：600029 证券简称：南方航空 公告编号：临 2024-056 中国南方航空股份有限公司 关于召开 2024 年第三季度业绩说明会的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记 载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完 整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： http://roadshow.sseinfo.com/） ● 会议召开方式：上证路演中心网络互动 ● 会议召开时间：2024 年 10 月 29 日（星期二）16:00-17:00 ● 会议召开地点：上海证券交易所上证路演中心（网址： 深入地了解公司 2024 年第三季度经营成果与财务状况，公司计划 于 2024 年 10 月 29 日 16:00-17:00 举行 2024 年第三季度业绩说明 会（以下简称"本次业绩说明会"），就投资者关心的问题进行交 流。 一、说明会类型 本次业绩说明会以网络互动的方式召开，公司将针对 2024 年 第三季度业绩和经营情况与投资者进行互动交流和沟通，在信息披 露允许的范围内就投资者普遍关注的问题进行回答。 二、说明会召开的时间、地点、方式 （一） 会议召开时间：2024 年 ...

证券代码：600029 证券简称：南方航空 公告编号：临 2024-055 中国南方航空股份有限公司 2024 年 9 月主要运营数据公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假 记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性 和完整性承担法律责任。 2024年9月，中国南方航空股份有限公司及所属子公司（以 下简称"本集团"）客运运力投入（按可利用座公里计）同比上 升9.81%，其中国内、地区、国际分别同比上升0.05%、33.96%、 52.16%；旅客周转量（按收入客公里计）同比上升19.29%，其中 国内、地区、国际分别同比上升10.29%、41.03%、56.49%；客座 率为85.51%，同比上升6.80个百分点，其中国内、地区、国际分 别同比上升7.98、3.84、2.34个百分点。 货运方面，2024年9月货运运力投入（按可利用吨公里—货 邮运计）同比上升7.47%；货邮周转量（按收入吨公里—货邮运 计）同比上升10.82%；货邮载运率为52.67%，同比上升1.59个百 分点。 2024年9月，本集团无新增主要航线。 1 2024年9月，本集团引进4架飞机（包含2架B73 ...

香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告的內容概不負責，對其準 確性或完整性亦不發表任何聲明，並明確表示，概不對因本公告全部或任何部份內容而產 生或因倚賴該等內容而引致的任何損失承擔任何責任。 中華人民共和國，廣州 2024年10月14日 於本公告日期，董事包括執行董事馬須倫、韓文勝及羅來君 ; 及獨立非執行董事何超瓊、郭 為及張俊生。 1 中國南方航空股份有限公司（「本公司」）董事會（「董事會」）茲通告謹定於2024年10 月28日（星期一）舉行董事會會議，藉以考慮及通過（其中包括）本公司截至2024年9月30 日止九個月的第三季度業績。 承董事會命 中國南方航空股份有限公司 聯席公司秘書 陳威華及劉巍 （在中華人民共和國註冊成立的股份有限公司） （股份代號：1055） 董事會召開日期 ...