Summary of Conference Call on China Southern Airlines' Sale of Boeing 787-8 Aircraft Company and Industry Involved - **Company**: China Southern Airlines (南航) - **Industry**: Aviation Key Points and Arguments 1. **Announcement of Aircraft Sale**: China Southern Airlines announced the sale of ten Boeing 787-8 aircraft and two spare engines, which was unexpected as it was not included in the previously disclosed fleet plan for 2024-2026 [1][2] 2. **Strategic Decision**: The decision to sell the 787-8 aircraft indicates a strategic move to streamline operations and reduce the variety of aircraft types in its fleet, which has been a trend for the airline [2][4] 3. **Fleet Optimization**: The sale is part of a broader effort to optimize the fleet by reducing the number of wide-body aircraft types, which can lead to lower operational costs and training requirements for pilots [3][4] 4. **Market Trends**: The 787-8 model is becoming less popular compared to the 787-9, which has better range and capacity, making it more suitable for long-haul routes [5][6] 5. **Aircraft Age and Maintenance**: The average age of the 787-8 aircraft in China Southern's fleet is around 11 years, approaching a point where significant maintenance is required, making it a strategic time to sell [6][7] 6. **Industry Supply Dynamics**: The overall supply of aircraft is tight, with a lack of new deliveries expected in the coming years, which could lead to higher prices for used aircraft [8][9] 7. **International Recovery**: The international aviation market is gradually recovering, with China Southern Airlines showing strong recovery rates compared to competitors, particularly in European routes [11][12] 8. **Future Outlook**: The airline industry is expected to face a tight supply of aircraft in the next few years, with a potential increase in demand as international travel resumes [9][10] 9. **Operational Efficiency**: By selling the 787-8, China Southern Airlines aims to improve operational efficiency and reduce costs associated with maintaining a diverse fleet [4][10] 10. **Market Positioning**: The sale may position China Southern Airlines favorably against international competitors, especially as they face higher operational costs due to geopolitical factors [11][12] Other Important but Overlooked Content - **Seasonal Demand**: The upcoming Spring Festival is expected to drive high travel demand, which could impact pricing and capacity in the airline industry [10][13] - **Long-term Strategy**: The decision to sell older aircraft aligns with a long-term strategy to modernize the fleet and focus on more efficient aircraft types [6][7] - **Supply Chain Challenges**: Ongoing supply chain issues are affecting aircraft production, which may limit the availability of new aircraft in the market [14]

证券代码：600029 证券简称：南方航空 公告编号：临 2024-060 | 机型 | 自行保有 | 融资租赁 | 经营租赁 | 小计 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 空客 350 系列 | 6 | 14 | 0 | 20 | | 空客 330 系列 | 7 | 18 | 4 | 29 | | 空客 320 系列 | 158 | 67 | 143 | 368 | | 波音 787 系列 | 10 | 20 | 10 | 40 | | 波音 777 系列 | 14 | 18 | 0 | 32 | | 波音 737 系列 | 145 | 66 | 178 | 389 | | EMB190 系列 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | | ARJ21 | 7 | 30 | 0 | 37 | | C919 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | | 合计 | 350 | 235 | 335 | 920 | 2024年10月，中国南方航空股份有限公司及所属子公司（以 下简称"本集团"）客运运力投入（按可利用座公里计）同比上 升8.73%，其中国内、地区、国际分别同比上升0.18%、9. ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for both A-shares and H-shares of the company [4][7]. Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 134.7 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 12.7%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.965 billion yuan, up 49% year-on-year [1]. - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 49.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.64% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 24.09%, but the net profit decreased by 19.79% year-on-year [1][4]. - The report highlights a significant recovery in air travel demand, with RPK (Revenue Passenger Kilometers) increasing by 28% year-on-year for the first three quarters and 19% year-on-year in Q3 [2]. - The report notes a decline in passenger kilometer revenue, which fell by 11.7% year-on-year to 0.58 yuan/RPK for the first three quarters, primarily due to falling ticket prices [3]. - The report expresses optimism about the ongoing recovery in air travel demand and the potential for cost improvements, particularly with expected declines in oil prices [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 134.7 billion yuan, with a net profit of 1.965 billion yuan [1]. - In Q3 2024, the company reported a revenue of 49.9 billion yuan and a net profit of 4.21 billion yuan [1][4]. - The company’s RPK increased by 28% year-on-year for the first three quarters, with a 52% increase in international routes [2]. Cost Management - The company’s passenger kilometer cost decreased by 11.0% year-on-year to 0.52 yuan/RPK for the first three quarters, aided by lower oil prices and effective cost control [3]. - The report emphasizes the importance of ongoing cost management as the airline industry faces increased competition [3]. Market Outlook - The report anticipates continued recovery in air travel demand, supported by both domestic and international factors, with a focus on the gradual improvement of supply constraints [3]. - The report suggests that the airline's fleet expansion is slower than historical cycles, indicating a degree of supply rigidity in the medium term [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Southern Airlines (600029) [1] Core Views - Revenue growth was offset by declining ticket prices, impacting overall profitability [1] - International routes showed significant recovery, with load factors exceeding 2019 levels [1] - Unit revenue declined sharply, but unit costs were well controlled [1] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 3.41, 40.23, and 57.08 billion yuan in 2024-2026, representing year-on-year growth of 108.1%, 1081.3%, and 41.9% respectively [1] Financial Performance Revenue and Profit - Q3 2024 revenue reached 49.87 billion yuan, up 4.64% YoY [1] - Net profit attributable to parent company was 3.193 billion yuan in Q3 2024, down 23.89% YoY [1] - For the first three quarters of 2024, net profit was 1.965 billion yuan, up 48.9% YoY [1] Operational Metrics - Total ASK increased 11.4% YoY in Q3 2024 [1] - International and regional ASK recovered to 84.9% of 2019 levels [1] - Overall load factor reached 85.49%, exceeding 2019 levels by 1.8 percentage points [1] Unit Economics - Unit RPK revenue was 0.587 yuan, down 11.8% YoY [1] - Unit ASK cost was 0.425 yuan, down 4.0% YoY [1] Financial Projections - Revenue is expected to grow at 13.7%, 7.8%, and 4.4% in 2024-2026 [2] - Gross margin is projected to improve from 7.7% in 2023 to 11.2% in 2026 [2] - ROE is forecasted to increase from -11.4% in 2023 to 12.2% in 2026 [2] Valuation - Current PE ratios are 324.61x, 27.48x, and 19.37x for 2024-2026 [1] - PB ratios are projected at 2.69x, 2.98x, and 2.36x for 2024-2026 [2]

股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | H | | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 01055 | 說明 | | | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 4,643,997,308 | RMB | | | 1 RMB | | 4,643,997,308 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | 0 | | | | RMB | | | | 本月底結存 | | | 4,643,997,308 | RMB | | | 1 RMB | | 4,643,997,308 | | 2. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | A | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 否 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, with projected earnings per share (EPS) of 0.03, 0.22, and 0.37 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, corresponding to price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 180.87X, 26.63X, and 16.24X [2]. Core Insights - The company reported its Q3 2024 results, showing that passenger transport volumes for domestic, international, and regional routes reached 110.02 million, 12.90 million, and 1.48 million respectively, which are 114.27%, 84.11%, and 74.31% of the levels seen in the same period of 2019 [1]. - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a total operating revenue of 134.66 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.7%, exceeding the 2019 level of 116.67 billion yuan [1]. - The company recorded a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.97 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 48.86%, which is 48.19% of the 4.08 billion yuan net profit in the same period of 2019 [1]. - The report highlights that Q3 2024 saw a strong release of business volume during the summer travel peak, leading to a significant revenue increase, despite a decline in ticket prices due to changes in consumer spending patterns [1]. - The company operated 913 aircraft as of the end of the reporting period, maintaining its position as the largest airline in Asia [1]. Financial Summary - The projected operating revenue for the company is expected to be 159.93 billion yuan in 2023, increasing to 180.25 billion yuan in 2024, 199.44 billion yuan in 2025, and 211.06 billion yuan in 2026, with growth rates of 83.70%, 12.70%, 10.65%, and 5.83% respectively [6]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to improve from a loss of 4.21 billion yuan in 2023 to a profit of 6.00 billion yuan in 2024, 40.75 billion yuan in 2025, and 66.82 billion yuan in 2026 [6]. - The gross margin is projected to increase from 7.72% in 2023 to 10.50% by 2026, indicating a recovery in profitability [6].

证券研究报告 | 2024年10月30日 南方航空（600029.SH） 优于大市 三季度业绩表现承压，静待盈利修复 南方航空 2024 年三季度业绩同比下滑。2024 年前三季度公司营业收入 1346.6 亿元，同比增长 12.7%，实现归母净利润 19.65 亿元，同比增长 48.9%， 其中单三季度公司营业收入 498.7 亿元，同比增长 4.6%，实现归母净利润 31.9 亿元，同比下降 23.9%。 国内需求修复，客座率同比提升明显，但收益水平承压显著。2024 年三季度， 公司旅客运输量、旅客周转量（RPK）、可用座公里（ASK）分别同比增长 11.8%、 18.7%以及 11.4%，且分别恢复至 2019 年同期的 110.1%、110.7%以及 108.4%； 客座率恢复至 85.5%，同比提升了 5.3 pct，相较 2019 年提升了 1.8 pct。 其中，国内航线的 RPK 和 ASK 分别恢复至 2019 年的 121.9%和 119.2%，国内 客座率恢复至 85.7%，相较 2019 年提升了 1.9 pct；国际航线的 RPK 和 ASK 分别恢复至 2019 年的 86.5% ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative performance increase of over 15% compared to the benchmark index within the next 6 to 12 months [4]. Core Views - The company experienced an increase in volume but a decrease in price during the third quarter, with profits aligning with expectations. The net profit attributable to shareholders for the first three quarters of 2024 reached 19.65 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 48.86% [1][3]. - The report highlights that the company's operational capacity continues to recover, with a significant improvement in passenger load factors, positioning it as a leader among major airlines [1][3]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecasts**: - 2023A: 159,929 million yuan - 2024E: 175,662 million yuan (10% growth YoY) - 2025E: 200,409 million yuan (14% growth YoY) - 2026E: 211,293 million yuan (5% growth YoY) [1][3]. - **Net Profit Forecasts**: - 2023A: -4,209 million yuan - 2024E: 1,669 million yuan (140% growth YoY) - 2025E: 5,473 million yuan (228% growth YoY) - 2026E: 7,895 million yuan (44% growth YoY) [1][3]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2023A: -0.23 yuan - 2024E: 0.09 yuan - 2025E: 0.30 yuan - 2026E: 0.44 yuan [1][3]. - **Return on Equity (ROE)**: - 2023A: -8% - 2024E: 3% - 2025E: 9% - 2026E: 11% [1][3]. Operational Highlights - The company added 5 aircraft in the first three quarters of 2024, with a total fleet size of 913 aircraft as of September 2024, reflecting a 28% increase compared to the end of 2023 [1]. - The passenger turnover (RPK) for the first three quarters of 2024 showed significant recovery, with domestic and international load factors improving to 81% and 72% respectively, marking a notable increase from the previous year [1][3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][3][9]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 134.66 billion RMB for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 12.7%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.96 billion RMB, up 48.9% [2]. - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 49.87 billion RMB, a 4.6% year-on-year increase, but the net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.19 billion RMB, down 23.9% [2][3]. - The increase in revenue in Q3 was primarily driven by a surge in travel demand, with revenue passenger kilometers increasing by 19% year-on-year, including a 62% increase in international routes [3]. - The unit cost per seat kilometer decreased by 4% year-on-year due to lower oil prices, while the gross margin was 15.4%, down 1.8 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - The report anticipates that the mid-term supply-demand optimization in the airline industry will improve profitability, supported by consumer confidence recovery and various consumption promotion policies [3]. Summary by Sections Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported a revenue of 134.66 billion RMB, a 12.7% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.96 billion RMB, a 48.9% increase [2]. - In Q3 2024, the revenue was 49.87 billion RMB, a 4.6% increase year-on-year, while the net profit was 3.19 billion RMB, a decrease of 23.9% [2]. Analysis - The increase in Q3 revenue was driven by a 19% year-on-year increase in revenue passenger kilometers, with domestic routes up 9%, international routes up 62%, and regional routes up 35% [3]. - The unit cost per seat kilometer decreased to 0.42 RMB, a 4% decrease year-on-year, while the gross margin was 15.4%, down 1.8 percentage points [3]. - The report suggests that mid-term supply-demand optimization in the airline industry could enhance profitability, with a projected increase in passenger demand and potential fare increases [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report maintains net profit forecasts of 0.4 billion RMB for 2024, 6.9 billion RMB for 2025, and 11.3 billion RMB for 2026 [3].

交通运输 证 券 研 究 报 告 2024 年 10 月 29 日 南方航空 (600029) ——经营持续改善，三季度旺季实现盈利 31.93 亿元 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 增持（维持）投资要点： ⚫ 事件：南方航空公告 2024 年第三季度业绩，实现归母净利润 31.93 亿元，同比下降 23.89%。公司 2024 年第三季度归属于母公司所有者的净利润 31.93 亿元，同比下降 23.89%，前三季度归属于上市公司股东的净利润 19.65 亿元，同比增长 48.86%；三季度 营业收入 498.71 亿元，同比增长 4.64%，前三季度实现营业收入 1346.61 亿元，同比增 长 12.70%。 ⚫ 运营数据：2024Q3 为航空市场旺季，出行需求旺盛，南方航空经营数据持续提升。根据 公司公告，公司 Q3 整体 ASK 同比 19 年+8%，整体 RPK 同比 19 年+11%，客座率同比 19 年+1.9 pct。国内：公司运量增长高于运力，国内客座率恢复明显。2024Q3 国内 ASK 恢复至 2019 年同期的 119%，同比 23 年+1%；国内 RPK 恢复至 19 年同期的 122 ...