证券代码：600031 证券简称：三一重工 公告编号：2024-049 三一重工股份有限公司股东集中竞价减持股份结果 公告 本公司董事会、全体董事及相关股东保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、 误导性陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： 上述减持主体间无一致行动人。 二、集中竞价减持计划的实施结果 (一)股东因以下事项披露集中竞价减持计划实施结果： 减持计划实施完毕 - 1 - 一、集中竞价减持主体减持前基本情况 股东名称 股东身份 持股数量 （股） 持股比例 当前持股股份来源 周福贵 其他股东：三一集 团有限公司的一 致行动人 3,020,000 0.0357% 非公开发行取得： 3,020,000 股 股东持股的基本情况：本次减持前，周福贵持有公司股份 3,020,000 股，占公司总股本的 0.0357%。 集中竞价减持计划的实施结果情况：2024 年 10 月 10 日至 2024 年 10 月 15 日，周福贵通过集中竞价方式累计减持 755,000 股，本次减持计 划实施完毕。 | | | | | 减 | 减持 价格 | | 减 持 | | | | -- ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [4]. Core Views - The company is positioned to benefit from a recovery in the domestic engineering machinery industry, with a projected increase in valuation as the market stabilizes [3]. - The company has a strong international presence, with significant growth potential in overseas markets, where its current market share is relatively low [3][41]. - The acceleration of electrification in engineering machinery is expected to enhance the company's product offerings and revenue growth [3]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Leadership and Domestic Demand - The company has established itself as a leader in the domestic engineering machinery sector, with a diverse demand structure and a recovery in traditional demand sources such as real estate and infrastructure [9][24]. - The current equipment update cycle is at a low point, with sales in the first half of 2024 showing positive year-on-year growth [3][31]. - The company has maintained its position as the top seller of excavators in the domestic market for 13 consecutive years, with a revenue share close to 40% [3]. 2. Global Market and Internationalization - The global engineering machinery market exceeds one trillion yuan, with the company having only an 8% share in overseas markets, indicating substantial growth potential [3][41]. - The company has expanded its international strategy, transitioning from product export to industrial export, and has established a comprehensive overseas market channel system [3][41]. - In the first half of 2024, the company achieved overseas revenue of 23.54 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.8% [3]. 3. Electrification of Engineering Machinery - The electrification of engineering machinery is accelerating, with the industry penetration rate exceeding 5% in 2024, and the company has launched over 80 new energy products in the first half of 2024 [3][3]. - Revenue from electrified products has grown significantly, from nearly 1 billion yuan in 2021 to 3.146 billion yuan in 2023, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) exceeding 77% [3]. 4. Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is expected to see a recovery in revenue and profit margins, with projected net profits of 6.586 billion yuan, 8.067 billion yuan, and 10.127 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [4]. - The report anticipates a valuation increase, with price-to-earnings ratios projected at 24x, 20x, and 16x for the respective years [4]. - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the anticipated recovery in the domestic engineering machinery market, which is expected to lead to an upward shift in industry valuation [3].

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for SANY Heavy Industry [3] Core Views - SANY Heavy Industry is positioned as a leading player in the domestic construction machinery market and is expected to become a global leader. The company has diversified its product offerings and geographical reach since its establishment in 1989, becoming a global leader in engineering machinery. Its product line includes excavators, concrete machinery, cranes, road machinery, and pile machinery, with active investments in new energy and electrification to promote sustainable development [1][17] - The domestic market is showing signs of recovery, with excavator sales having reached a low point last year, and recent monthly data indicating positive growth rates. The company is well-positioned to benefit from this recovery due to its strong distribution network and service capabilities [1][2] - The overseas market is expanding rapidly, with SANY's overseas revenue share exceeding 50% in 2023. The company has significant growth potential in high-end markets in Europe and the US, where its market share is currently low [2][19] Summary by Sections Domestic Market Outlook - The report indicates that the domestic construction machinery market is nearing a turning point, with improving marginal demand. Excavator sales fell to nearly 90,000 units last year, down from a historical high of nearly 300,000 units in 2020. However, recent monthly sales growth rates have shown positive trends, suggesting a recovery is underway [1][2] - SANY Heavy Industry maintains a strong market position with a well-established distribution network and excellent after-sales service capabilities, which enhances its resilience during market fluctuations [1][2] Overseas Market Potential - The report highlights the significant growth potential in overseas markets, with SANY's overseas revenue share increasing from around 10% in 2020 to over 50% in 2023. The company is expected to benefit from favorable conditions in the second half of the year, including the conclusion of elections and clearer policies [2][19] - SANY Heavy Industry leads the industry in terms of scale and profitability in overseas markets, with substantial opportunities for market share growth in both developed and developing countries [2][19] Financial Projections - The report forecasts that SANY Heavy Industry's total revenue will reach 813 billion, 954 billion, and 1,149 billion yuan in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with growth rates of 10%, 17%, and 21%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 62 billion, 81 billion, and 105 billion yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 37%, 31%, and 30% [2][6] - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios are projected to be 21, 16, and 12.2 times for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, indicating a favorable valuation for investors [2][6]

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证券研究报告 | 2024年09月12日 三一重工（600031.SH） 优于大市 盈利能力回升，持续推进全球化发展 2024 上半年营收同比下降 2.16%，归母净利润同比增长 4.80%。公司 2024 上半年营收 390.06 亿元，同比下降 2.16%；归母净利润 35.73 亿元，同比增 长 4.80%。业绩增长主要系国内需求筑底企稳，海外市场竞争力增强，市场 份额持续扩大所致。毛利率/净利率分别为 28.24%/9.42%，同比变动 +0.03/+0.61pct，盈利能力增长主要由于高毛利海外业务占比提升，同时公 司持续推进降本增效措施。公司财务费用率同比增长 3.15 个 pct，主要系 2024 上半年公司汇兑损失 2.82 亿元，去年同期为汇兑收益 10.80 亿元。 海外营收占比提升，持续推进全球化。2024 上半年公司海外营收 235.42 亿 元，同比增长 4.79%，占总收入 60.78%，同比提升 4.49pct 个 pct，主要系 公司持续推进全球化战略，海外市场份额持续提升。分区域看，2024 年上半 年欧洲、亚澳地区实现小幅增长，美洲地区小幅下滑，非洲地区增长较快， 营收同比 ...

证券研究报告 2024 年 09 月 11 日 湘财证券研究所 公司研究 三一重工（600031）首次覆盖 国内工程机械龙头，全球化布局持续推进 相关研究： 1.《20240807湘财证券-机械行 业：7月我国挖机销量同比增长 8.6%，装载机电动化率持续提 升》 公司评级：增持（首次覆盖） 近十二个月公司表现 -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 23/09 23/11 24/01 24/03 24/05 24/07 24/09 三一重工 沪深300 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------|----------|--------------------|-------|-------|---------------| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | % | 1 个月 | | 3 | 个月 | 12 个月 | | 相对收益 | | | | | 5.4 8.5 10.2 | | 绝对收益 | | | | | 1.0 -2.3 -4.6 | | | | 注：相对收益与沪深 | | | 300 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (首次) [1] Core Views - The company has established itself as a leader in the engineering machinery market with a diverse product range, including concrete machinery, excavators, and cranes, achieving high market recognition [3][15] - The engineering machinery industry is expected to stabilize and recover in 2024, driven by domestic demand and continued growth in overseas markets [3][31] - The company possesses four key competitive advantages: strong core product advantages, advancements in electrification, accelerated overseas expansion, and a focus on digital transformation [3][31] Summary by Sections Company Overview - Founded in 1989, the company has evolved from a small factory to a leading enterprise in the domestic engineering machinery sector, with a rich product line and significant market recognition [3][9] - The company has a stable shareholding structure, with the actual controller holding a significant portion of shares, ensuring stability in management [11][12] Industry Outlook - The engineering machinery industry has entered a down cycle since 2021, but signs of recovery are emerging, particularly in excavator sales, which have shown positive growth in early 2024 [31][33] - Domestic demand is expected to stabilize due to improvements in real estate and infrastructure projects, while overseas markets continue to be a major growth driver [3][31] Competitive Advantages - The company has a clear advantage in core products, with the highest market share in excavators and a leading position in concrete machinery globally [3][15] - The company has committed to electrification, with significant revenue from electric and hybrid products, positioning itself as a leader in the new energy engineering equipment sector [3][31] - The overseas revenue share has increased from 25.1% in 2018 to 60.5% in 2023, indicating successful international expansion [3][31] - The company is advancing its digital transformation, enhancing its core competitiveness through smart products and manufacturing [3][31] Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from 786.98 billion yuan in 2024 to 983.56 billion yuan in 2026, with corresponding net profits expected to rise from 58.33 billion yuan to 100.11 billion yuan during the same period [3][4] - The company's earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to increase from 0.69 yuan in 2024 to 1.18 yuan in 2026, with a current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 23, 16, and 13 for the respective years [3][4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the company [2][5] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 39.06 billion yuan for H1 2024, a year-over-year decrease of 2.16%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.573 billion yuan, an increase of 4.80% year-over-year [5] - The excavator segment has turned to positive growth, with revenue of 15.215 billion yuan in H1 2024, a year-over-year increase of 0.43% [5] - The overseas market has shown significant growth, particularly in Africa, where revenue increased by 66.71% year-over-year [5] Financial Summary - For H1 2024, the company achieved a gross margin of 28.24%, up 0.03 percentage points year-over-year, and a net profit margin of 9.15%, up 0.63 percentage points year-over-year [5] - The company’s operating cash flow improved significantly, with a net cash flow from operating activities of 8.438 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 2204.61% [5] - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024-2026 is adjusted to 6.410 billion, 7.674 billion, and 8.979 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 21.3, 17.8, and 15.2 times [5][6]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for SANY Heavy Industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The collective reduction of shares by senior executives has led to a significant market reaction, with a single-day market value loss of approximately 75 billion CNY following the announcement of a share reduction plan [1][4] - The reduction plan involves seven senior executives, including the rotating chairman, indicating a lack of confidence in the company's future performance [5][6] - Despite high salaries for these executives, they cited "personal funding needs" as the reason for their share reduction, raising questions about their financial situations [8][9] - The company's stock price has been under pressure, with a notable decline following the announcement of the reduction plan, which interrupted a recent upward trend in stock performance [10][11] Summary by Sections Executive Share Reduction - On September 6, SANY Heavy Industry announced a plan for seven executives to reduce their holdings by up to 754.91 million shares, amounting to approximately 1.22 billion CNY in market value [4][5] - The executives involved hold significant positions within the company, which amplifies the market's negative perception of the share reduction [6][7] Financial Performance - SANY Heavy Industry's revenue has declined significantly from 1,068.7 billion CNY in 2021 to 740.2 billion CNY in 2023, representing a 31% decrease [19][21] - The company's net profit has also dropped sharply from 154.3 billion CNY in 2020 to 45.3 billion CNY in 2023, indicating severe profitability challenges [19][21] Market Sentiment and Analyst Reports - Despite the negative sentiment surrounding the share reduction, various sell-side analysts have issued positive reports, with 48 bullish reports published in 2024 alone [13][14] - Institutional investors have increased their holdings in SANY Heavy Industry, with 914 institutions holding a total of 4.5 billion shares, representing 53.03% of total shares [14][16]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting its stock price to outperform the industry index by more than 15% in the next 6 months [11] Core Views - The company's profitability continues to recover, driven by rapid growth in overseas sales and cost reduction measures [2] - The company is making significant progress in electrification and globalization, with over 80 new energy products launched, including the SW956E electric loader and SY215E electric excavator [2] - Overseas revenue reached 23.542 billion yuan in H1 2024, accounting for 62.23% of total revenue, with a gross margin of 31.57% [2] - The company's core products, such as excavators, concrete machinery, and cranes, maintain leading market share and sales levels in the industry [2] Financial Performance - Revenue in H1 2024 was 38.738 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 1.95% YoY, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 4.80% YoY to 3.573 billion yuan [1] - Operating cash flow surged by 2204.61% YoY to 8.438 billion yuan in H1 2024 [1] - Q2 2024 revenue was 21.076 billion yuan, down 2.92% YoY but up 19.33% QoQ, with net profit increasing by 5.52% YoY and 26.11% QoQ to 1.993 billion yuan [2] - Gross margin and net margin in Q2 2024 were 28.32% and 9.61%, respectively, showing slight improvements both YoY and QoQ [2] Future Projections - Revenue is expected to grow from 77.981 billion yuan in 2024E to 102.861 billion yuan in 2026E, with a CAGR of 14.7% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to increase from 6.281 billion yuan in 2024E to 9.772 billion yuan in 2026E, with a CAGR of 24.7% [1] - ROE is forecasted to rise from 8.5% in 2024E to 11.4% in 2026E, while EPS is expected to grow from 0.74 yuan in 2024E to 1.15 yuan in 2026E [1] Product and Market Performance - Excavator sales in H1 2024 were 15.215 billion yuan, up 0.43% YoY, while concrete machinery sales declined by 5.22% YoY to 7.957 billion yuan [2] - Road machinery sales increased by 15.74% YoY to 1.578 billion yuan in H1 2024 [2] - The company's SW956E electric loader secured a large order of 200 units in Indonesia, marking a significant breakthrough in electric product exports [2] Global Expansion - The company's overseas factories, including the second phase of the Indonesia plant and the India and South Africa plants, are under construction or have completed expansion [2] - Overseas revenue growth is supported by the company's strong presence in international markets and its focus on product localization [2]